Tag Archives: Nor'easter

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New York power outage: Nor’easter knocks out power for nearly 200,000 customers across the Northeast

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The late-season storm left hundreds of thousands of people in the Northeast without power Tuesday, with the Empire State the most affected.

In the last 24 hours, the storm wreaked havoc over 11 New York counties, from the southern tier up to the north country, according to Gov. Kathy Hochul, who spoke at a briefing at the Broome County Emergency Operations Center.

“I do want to acknowledge that this was a very serious event, as I said, resulting in a dramatic amount of families, homes, businesses, schools, hospitals, at least temporarily displaced and dealing with the lack of power,” Hochul said.

As many as 350,000 homes were without power at some point during the storm, but 200,000 now had power restored, according to Hochul. Officials hope crews will restore everyone’s power in the next three days, she said.

Parts of western New York and Pennsylvania saw over a foot of snow, according to preliminary snowfall totals, including 18 inches in the town of Virgil, New York. Tree limbs throughout the state came down under the weight of snow and brought power lines down with them, Hochul said.
According to the website PowerOutage.US, about 130,000 homes and businesses in New York were still in the dark as of early Wednesday. There were more than 26,000 outages in Pennsylvania. Most affected customers in New England had their power restored by Tuesday evening as winds quieted down across the region.
Before then, battering high winds were highlighted by 67 mph gusts in Tuckerton, New Jersey, and 66 mph gusts in Cape May, New Jersey. New York’s JFK Airport recorded a gust of 47 mph overnight, while wind peaks ranged from 46 mph to 69 mph across parts of Suffolk County on Long Island, according to the National Weather Service.

A gale warning remains in place from Long Island northward along the New England coast. The weather service says during the warning, which is in effect until 8 a.m. ET, some areas will see seas as high as 15 feet.

“Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility,” the weather service said.

A nor’easter is a term for a storm on the US East Coast in which powerful winds come from the northeast. This current storm’s mid-April arrival is rare, though not unheard of, experts said.

While the storms often impact coastal areas, this week’s nor’easter tracked much farther to the west, meaning precipitation in coastal cities arrived as rain while inland locations received heavy, wet snow.

Before arriving to the Northeast, the storm dropped heavy rain across the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic coast.

CNN’s Jennifer Gray contributed to this report.

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Noreaster bomb cyclone storm: The worst of the storm that slammed the Northeast with record snowfall has passed, but ‘dangerously cold’ wind chills remain in some areas

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Roughly one million people across the Northeast were under winter weather alerts early Sunday, down from the nearly 16 million who were affected by such alerts Saturday night.

“That is a huge drop-off as the storm exits the most populous areas of the eastern seaboard,” CNN meteorologist Derek Van Dam said.

Blizzard warnings — which affected millions across multiple states Saturday — have also been scaled down to eastern and northern Maine, where more than 240,000 people were affected as of 1 a.m. Sunday, according to the National Weather Service (NWS).

A blizzard, as defined by the NWS, requires blowing or falling snow, winds of at least 35 miles per hour, and visibility of a quarter mile or less for at least three hours.

Those conditions were reached Saturday in several locations across Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts, including Boston, the NWS said.

Wind speed — which reached more than 80 mph Saturday across eastern Massachusetts — is expected to ease to about 15-25 mph Sunday, though gusts could be higher in some local areas, according to Van Dam.

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Still, much of the Northeast can expect “dangerous” wind chills, some dipping below zero Sunday morning as the storm exits the region, the NWS warned. More than 760,000 people from parts of western Virginia through Maine are under those warnings effective until 7 a.m. in some areas and 10 a.m. in others.

Later Sunday, some areas including Buffalo, New York, and Pittsburgh will see temperatures improve by roughly 10 degrees.

Meanwhile, cities including New York, Boston and Philadelphia will see a slight dip of about 4 degrees Sunday.

“Although temperatures are going to rebound (Sunday), we will have to be patient for any real warm up, which doesn’t come until the middle of the week,” Van Dam said.

The frigid cold follows dense snowfall that broke records throughout the Northeast in parts of southern New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania and Massachusetts.

The storm became a “bomb cyclone” Saturday morning, meaning it strengthened rapidly and had the barometric pressure drop more than 24 millibars within 24 hours, the Weather Prediction Center said.

The storm wreaked havoc on transportation in the region, creating dangerous conditions on roadways and delays and cancellations on air and rail travel.

More than 3,580 flights within, into or out of the US were canceled Saturday, according to FlightAware, and more than a thousand were already canceled for Sunday as of the early morning. Major airlines offered waivers and alternative options to passengers whose travel was affected by the storm.

Record snow and roaring winds

The bomb cyclone brought heavy snow that accumulated quickly as howling winds blew through the region.

The town of Stoughton, Massachusetts, recorded a staggering 30.9 inches of snowfall by Saturday night, the NWS said. And winds in parts of Barnstable County, Massachusetts, where Cape Cod is located, reached 81 mph Saturday, the service said.

By Sunday morning, up to 2 feet of snow could fall from Long Island through Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine, CNN forecasters said.

Here are some notable snowfall records:

  • Atlantic City, New Jersey: The city crushed its all-time January snowfall record by Saturday, reaching a monthly total of 33.2 inches of snow. The prior monthly record of 20.3 inches was set in January 1987. The city’s 14 inches of snow Saturday also beat its previous record for the calendar date, which was set in 2014 at 7.3 inches.
  • Boston: Logan International Airport tallied at least 23.6 inches of snow by Saturday night, said the NWS, making Saturday the snowiest January day Boston has recorded and tying the record for biggest 1-day snowfall total. The previous record was set on January 27.
  • Central Park, New York: The iconic park saw 7.3 inches on Saturday, beating the previous record for January 29 of 4.7 inches set in 1904.
  • Philadelphia: The city was hit with 5.8 inches of snow Saturday, beating the previous calendar day record of 5 inches set on January 29, 1904.

Power outages remain

The storm’s strong winds lead to downed power lines, leaving thousands still in the dark.

Nearly 65,000 homes and businesses in Massachusetts were without power early Sunday according to PowerOutage.us, down from more than 88,000 Saturday evening.

High winds and snow pushed over several trees across Nantucket Island while some areas were out of power because of downed wires, island Fire Chief Stephen Murphy told CNN Saturday afternoon. Several roadways were also closed because of flooding, the chief said.

“We do have coastal flooding when we get these kinds of storms, but today was pretty intense,” Jason Graziadei, an editor at the local newsletter Nantucket Current, told CNN. “People (are) kind of just hunkering down out here.”

Scituate, a coastal Massachusetts town southeast of Boston, had some mild to moderate flooding at high tide Saturday morning, with water splashing over seawalls, town administrator Jim Boudreau told CNN.

In Marshfield, another coastal Massachusetts town, about 4 feet of water came over the seawall at high tide, town administrator Michael A. Maresco told CNN.

CNN’s Jason Hanna, Christina Maxouris, Brynn Gingras, Brian Todd, Artemis Moshtaghian, Liam Reilly, Tyler Mauldin and David Williams contributed to this report.



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Snowfall Totals: Here are the latest snow amounts in New Jersey and the Philadelphia region from the nor’easter

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PHILADELPHIA (WPVI) — The nor’easter that hit Friday night and into Saturday brought some impressive snowfall totals.

The National Weather Service has been collecting measurements from trained spotters and public reports all day long from across the Philadelphia region, including counties in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware.

The Jersey shore took the brunt of this storm. By mid-morning Saturday some communities were already reporting more than a foot of snow.

Even though the biggest impact was along the coast, the storm brought heavy snow throughout most of the Delaware Valley.

Some parts of Philadelphia had more than six inches of snow. Southern Delaware was also being hit hard, with at least one community reporting a foot of snow.

Local communities with more than a foot of snow far include:

NEW JERSEY

Atlantic County

Smithville: 16.1 in
Atlantic City Int’l: 16.0 in
Northfield: 15.0 in

Galloway Twp: 14.0 in
Absecon: 13.5 in
Egg Harbor City: 12.6 in
Egg Harbor Twp: 12.6 in
Estell Manor: 12.5 in

Northfield: 12.0 in
Northfield: 12.0 in

Cape May County

Sea Isle City: 14.8 in
Marmora: 14.0 in
Lower Twp: 13.0 in
Cape May Court House: 13.0 in
Erma: 13.0 in
Lower Twp: 13.0 in
Goshen: 12.5 in

Ocean County

Bayville 19.0 in
Forked River 16.0 in
Manahawkin 16.0 in

Toms River 16.0 in
Tuckerton 16.0 in
Lanoka Harbor 15.0 in
Brick 14.8 in
Whiting 13.0 in

DELAWARE

Sussex County

Millsboro: 13.0 in
Frankford: 12.5 in
Millville: 12.5 in
Lewes: 12.0 in
Harbeson: 12.0 in

Check here for the full list of current snowfall totals from the NWS.

Copyright © 2022 WPVI-TV. All Rights Reserved.



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Nor’easter hammering East Coast with blizzard conditions, with New England bracing for the heaviest snow

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More than 10 million people in some coastal areas from Virginia into New England are under blizzard warnings — meaning heavy snow and strong winds, with predicted gusts up to 70 mph in some areas, will make for terrible visibility and dangerous travel.

Some governments in the Northeast have banned vehicle travel for parts of the day, including Rhode Island through to 8 p.m., with a tractor-trailer ban until midnight. And many are urging people to stay home.

“Hunker down for 24 hours, and sometime tomorrow, you’ll be able to go back out and resume some of your normal activities,” Tom Guthlein, Rhode Island’s acting director emergency management, said early Saturday.

More than 1 foot of snow could fall by Sunday morning from Long Island through Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine, CNN forecasters said.

And Boston, eastern Massachusetts and parts of Maine could get more than 2 feet of snow. That could threaten Boston’s one-day snowfall record — 23.6 inches — set on February 17, 2003. Snow could fall at rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour in some locations.

Some areas also are under warnings of coastal flooding, and facing possibility of power outages from downed utility lines.

The blizzard warnings in coastal areas from Virginia to New England excluded Philadelphia and New York City — but snow still is hitting those cities, with nearly a foot possible in each.

Notable locations within the warning are Ocean City, Maryland; Atlantic City, New Jersey; the eastern half of New York’s Long Island; Cape Cod, Massachusetts; Boston; and Portland, Maine.

Nearly 55 million people, stretching from the Mid-Atlantic to New England, were under some type of winter weather alerts Saturday morning.

‘Historic major winter storm for eastern New England’

Travel will be difficult to impossible due to whiteout conditions created by the heavy snow and strong winds, the National Weather Service predicted. In a blizzard, snow is joined by winds gusting over 35 mph for more than three hours, creating visibility of less than a quarter of a mile.

“The strong-to-damaging winds will lead to scattered power outages,” the NWS warned.

There is “high confidence” this will be a “historic major winter storm for eastern New England,” with widespread snowfall of one to two feet, the National Weather Service said Friday evening.

Plus, extremely cold temperatures and coastal flooding are possible, the Weather Prediction Center warned.

“Coastal flooding is a concern thanks to astronomically high tides on Saturday,” the weather service office in Boston said. “The combination of strong northeast winds and high seas will bring storm surges that, if coinciding with high tide, would lead to minor or moderate coastal flooding.”

The difference in storm timing — even as few as six hours — would make a massive difference in impact on coastal flooding and erosion concerns.

More than 3,500 flights within, into or out of the US have been canceled Saturday, according to FlightAware.

These northeastern states expected to see the worst of it

Eastern Massachusetts, including Boston, will bear the brunt of the system as forecast models predict between 18 to 24 inches of snow combined with wind gusts up to 70 mph.

Two to 4 inches per hour could fall in Boston, with conditions likely to peak between 8 a.m. and 5 p.m. Saturday. Similar snow total and wind predictions are in place for Rhode Island.

Boston declared a “snow emergency” that began Friday at 9 p.m.

“This has a potential to be a historic storm, a huge one,” Boston Mayor Michelle Wu said. “This is likely to be an intense, dangerous storm, with heavy snow, high winds and whiteout conditions.”

The Massachusetts Department of Transportation implemented a travel ban for large trucks on interstate highways for Saturday because of the severe winter weather forecast.

The travel ban took effect Saturday morning and will go though midnight for tractor trailer trucks, tandems and special permit haulers,” MassDOT said.

Rhode Island Gov. Daniel McKee declared a state of emergency ahead of the storm and took precautions a step further by signing a travel ban beginning Saturday morning and going through 8 p.m. due to whiteout conditions.

Some of the heaviest snow is projected to fall in parts of New Hampshire, Maine, and Long Island — where 12 to 24 inches of snow are forecast.

The blizzard-like conditions have led Amtrak to cancel train service on Saturday for various lines, including Acela service between Washington, DC, and Boston as well as regional service between Boston and New York, the company said Friday.

Tri-state area, Pennsylvania and Delaware

Meanwhile, the governors of New York and New Jersey also declared states of emergency.

New York City could get 6 to 12 inches of snow with 45 mph gusts, while 14 inches could pile up elsewhere in New York state as well as Connecticut, where wind gusts may be as strong as 55 mph, CNN meteorologists and the weather service predicted.

The impact in New York City will peak from 5 a.m. to 4 p.m. Saturday.

As a precaution, all Long Island Rail Road service was suspended Saturday morning, the Metropolitan Transportation Authority said.

Across the Hudson River, northeast New Jersey could see 7 to 10 inches of snow, with winds gusting up to 45 mph.

The southern portion of New Jersey may see up to 18 inches of snow, and projections are similar in southern Delaware, according to the NWS.

The Philadelphia area in eastern Pennsylvania is also expected to get 4 to 11 inches of snow.

Maryland, Virginia, the Carolinas and elsewhere

The governors of Maryland and Virginia issued states of emergency in their states, where a blizzard warning is in effect in some areas through Saturday night.

Between 8 and 12 inches of snow could pile up in parts of southeast Maryland and eastern and southeast Virginia, where winds are expected to gust as high as 50 mph.

Parts of interior North Carolina and South Carolina got more than 2 inches of snow, with higher amounts in North Carolina’s mountains.

Portions of Tennessee, Kentucky and West Virginia also have received more than 4 inches of snow.

CNN’s Haley Brink and Melissa Alonso contributed to this report.



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Nor’easter bomb cyclone: For 55 million Americans from the Mid-Atlantic states to New England, snow, wind and flooding are in store

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The storm is expected to form Friday off the coast of the Carolinas and then move northward up the East Coast overnight into Saturday as it rapidly strengthens in a process called bombogenesis. Also referred to as a bomb cyclone, the process happens when a storm drops a certain amount of atmospheric pressure over a 24-hour period.

Eastern Massachusetts, including Boston, and Rhode Island could see between 12 to 24 inches of snow combined with wind gusts up to 64 mph, according to multiple forecast models.

“It is looking likely that blowing snow would result in significantly reduced or near-zero visibilities at times for southeastern MA. Right now, we are most confident in blizzard conditions developing from Plymouth County into Cape/Islands,” the National Weather Service office in Boston warned Thursday night.
Additionally, much of the New England coast also faces the threat of a dangerous blizzard, according to the NWS Weather Prediction Center. A blizzard occurs when snow is joined by winds gusting over 35 mph for more than three hours and creates visibility of less than a quarter of a mile.
“Whiteout conditions could create nearly impossible travel, while strong winds will likely lead to scattered power outages and some damage,” the center said.

Mix of snow, wind and coastal flooding to slam Northeast

The storm is expected to unleash a double-whammy of heavy snowfall and strong winds throughout parts of the Northeast, but exactly which parts of the region remain in question.

“This storm is likely to strengthen at a rate, and to an intensity, equivalent to only the most powerful hurricanes, so the high-end potential of this storm cannot be overstated,” CNN meteorologist Brandon Miller said. “But with nor’easters, like in real estate, it will all come down to location, location, location.”

Portions of northeastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia could see up to 3 inches of snow, with winds as high as 35 mph, according to the National Weather Service.

And once the storm reaches the East Coast, it can dump as many as 14 inches of snow in portions of Connecticut and New York, where wind gusts may reach as high as 55 mph, the NWS predicts. But forecast models remained uncertain Thursday.
In neighboring New Jersey, northeastern parts of the state can see up to 9 inches of snow as winds gusts reach as high as 50 mph, the NWS said.
The storm could also drop up to 8 inches of snow in Philadelphia, while portions of Delaware may see as many as 10 inches, according to multiple forecast models.

Pus, coastal flooding as well as extremely cold temperatures are a possibility, the Weather Prediction Center warned.

The stronger the storm, the greater the surge of water along the coast will be.

“Coastal flooding is a concern thanks to astronomically high tides on Saturday,” NWS Boston said. “The combination of strong northeast winds and high seas will bring storm surges that, if coinciding with high tide, would lead to minor or moderate coastal flooding.”

The difference in storm timing — even as few as six hours — would make a massive difference in impact on coastal flooding and erosion concerns.

New York City forecast remains uncertain

And while the storm’s track has become clearer over the past 24 hours, its impact in some areas is still unpredictable.

A European forecast model shows New York City on the edge of the snow-or-no-snow divide, but it still predicts a heaping pile of snow. The American model shows nearly nothing for the city. A third model indicates a foot or more of snow.

The NWS prediction as of early Friday is between 6 and 9 inches of snow, with wind gusts up to 50 mph. However, it says there is a 10% chance that the bomb cyclone may dump more than 17 inches of snow — while also giving a 10% chance of zero snow.

And direction is playing a vital role in this storm’s projection, CNN meteorologist Chad Myers pointed out.

“It’s like a bowling ball going right down the middle or slightly off-center. You can get a 7-10 split or a strike with only an inch difference,” Myers said. “I think the models will come together as we get closer to the event.”

CNN’s Judson Jones and Robert Shackelford contributed to this report.



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Noreaster bomb cyclone: Northeast faces heavy snow and blizzard conditions this weekend, but models are still unclear on how bad it will be

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Forecasters predict eastern Massachusetts, including Boston, and Rhode Island will see significant impacts, with the expectation of 8 to 16 inches of snow combined with wind gusts up to 60 mph.

Five million people in the region will be under a winter storm watch effective Friday night through Saturday evening, according to the National Weather Service.

The storm is expected to form in the Atlantic Ocean just off the coast of Georgia, then rapidly strengthen — a process known as bombogenesis — overnight Friday and track up the East Coast Saturday, though specifics on the impact remain unclear.

“This storm is likely to strengthen at a rate, and to an intensity, equivalent to only the most powerful hurricanes, so the high-end potential of this storm cannot be overstated. But with nor’easters, like in real estate, it will all come down to location, location, location,” CNN meteorologist Brandon Miller said.

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Heavy snow and strong winds are likely across New England, “which could lead to blowing snow, scattered power outages, and some damage,” the Weather Prediction Center said Wednesday evening.

Moderate to heavy snow is possible from New York through Washington, DC, “but confidence in potential impacts is much lower,” the forecasters said.

The storm could potentially dump up to 8 inches of snow in Philadelphia and New York City, while Washington, DC, could see up to 2 inches, according to multiple forecast models.

The double threat of heavy snow and strong winds has the potential to create blizzard-like conditions through the Northeast.

A blizzard occurs when snow is joined by winds gusting over 35 mph for more than three hours and creates visibility of less than a quarter of a mile.

Uncertainty in the forecast

Forecasters have been reinforcing the point that it’s still too early to predict the precise impact of the storm and snowfall totals.

“The storm track remains uncertain which will have a direct impact on accumulations and where heaviest snowfall sets up,” the NWS in Boston said Thursday morning.
A “farther offshore track of the low will decrease snow amounts while a track closer to shore will increase snow amounts and if the low gets close enough to the coast, a wintry mix will be possible for some eastern coastal sections (This is looking less and less likely),” said the New York office of the National Weather Service said Wednesday.

Different forecast models show different paths for the storm, which makes it hard to nail down precisely what will happen, the NWS said.

CNN meteorologist Robert Shackelford explained those discrepancies are largely because each model uses different methods to determine their forecast.

“All options remain on the table as it’s still 3 days away and we can’t rule out a shift back to the west or even a further eastward shift with less snow,” forecasters said early Thursday morning.

How to survive a blizzard

Coastal flooding is a possibility

In addition to gusting wind and blowing snow, coastal flooding may also be in store for some areas.

“Significant coastal impacts are possible in the Northeast, including coastal flooding and beach erosion,” the prediction center said.

The stronger the storm, the greater the surge of water along the coast will be.

“Coastal flooding is a concern thanks to astronomically high tides on Saturday,” the Boston weather service office said. “The combination of strong northeast winds and high seas will bring storm surges that, if coinciding with high tide, would lead to minor or moderate coastal flooding.”

The difference in storm timing — even as few as six hours — would make a massive difference in impact on coastal flooding and erosion concerns.

Meanwhile, a blast of arctic air is set to enter the northern US Thursday, bringing scattered snow showers across the Great Lakes region, the National Weather Service said.

The region also experienced icy conditions Wednesday, with crashes reported in northern Indiana after drivers lost control of their vehicles on slick bridges, officials said.

A FedEx semi-truck was left dangling off a bridge on the Indiana Toll Road in St. Joseph County when the driver lost control after being hit by another vehicle that had also lost control, Sgt. Ted Bohner, spokesman for the Indiana State Police District 24.

The FedEx truck hit another vehicle in the rear causing that vehicle to spin out and the FedEx truck to hit a concrete barrier wall of a bridge, Bohner said.

Another car also lost control on the icy roads, hitting and flipping over a guardrail, officials said. The van “rolled or slid down the embankment and almost went onto a road running parallel to the Toll Road,” Bohner said.

CNN’s Judson Jones and Jennifer Henderson contributed to this report.



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NYC Snow Forecast: What to expect from Saturday’s nor’easter across the Tri-State

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NEW YORK (WABC) — We’re keeping a close eye on a Nor’easter that is set to impact the Tri-State Friday night and Saturday.

The cold is already in place, and a reinforcing shot of arctic air (which includes some light snow) will arrive on Friday, ensuring that the upcoming storm will be a snow event.

The big wildcard is the exact track of the storm, which will have huge ramifications for how much snow and wind we get. A track farther offshore would spare us from the brunt of the storm, while a track closer to the coast could mean near-blizzard conditions over a wide swath of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

A plowable snowfall looks likely along the I-95 corridor including New York City with at least several inches of accumulation.

Latest snowfall projections

In Lee Goldberg’s latest snowfall projections, the best chance of blizzard conditions and a foot or more of snow is from eastern Long Island into southeastern parts of New England.

At the same time, areas well north and west of New York City are likely to get 3 inches of snow or less and could be completely spared as there will be a very sharp cutoff in snowfall totals as you head away from the storm.

The most difficult area to predict snow totals is New York City and areas immediately surrounding it, which could get anywhere from 3-6 inches on the lower end, or 6-12 inches on the higher end.

Lee Goldberg says he could even see scenario where parts of the city could see a big difference in totals depending on the storm’s track, but a foot of snow is unlikely at this time.

Just to the east there could be a lot of heavy banding on Long Island which could see 6-12 inches along with coastal New Jersey.

Meanwhile, snow totals will taper off from Connecticut into the Hudson Valley.

Gusty winds, coastal flooding

Beyond the snow, the eastern end of Long Island could see 50 mph gusts of wind with a potential for moderate coastal flooding.

We’re still a couple of days from the start of the storm, so lots can change between now and then! Keep it tuned to ABC7NY as we track what could be the biggest storm of the winter so far.

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Nor’easter forecast: A bomb cyclone with hurricane power will unleash snow this weekend

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“The models continue to show a nor’easter with blockbuster potential for the weekend, mainly late Friday through Saturday,” CNN meteorologist Brandon Miller says.

There are still questions about how much snow will pile up and how extreme winds will get.

“Heavy snow is most likely in parts of New England,” the Weather Prediction Center said Wednesday morning. “Heavy snow is still possible farther south along the East Coast, including the major I-95 metropolitan areas from New York City to Washington DC, but that is more uncertain at this time.”

The National Weather Service in Boston on Wednesday afternoon issued a winter storm watch for eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island, from Friday night until Saturday evening. Expected snowfall ranges from 8 to 16 inches, with wind gusts up to 60 mph.

Other NWS offices have yet to issue watches due to the uncertainty.

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The storm is expected to form in the Atlantic Ocean just off the coast of Georgia, then rapidly strengthen — a process known as bombogenesis — overnight Friday and track Saturday up the East Coast.
“Guidance indicates potential for this storm to undergo bombogenesis, meaning its central pressure drops at least 24 mb in 24 hours,” the Boston weather service office said earlier, referring to the unit of pressure known as millibars. “This creates a very tight pressure gradient, meaning strong, potentially damaging winds will accompany the snow.”

“This storm is likely to strengthen at a rate, and to an intensity, equivalent to only the most powerful hurricanes, so the high-end potential of this storm cannot be overstated. But with nor’easters, like in real estate, it will all come down to location, location, location,” Miller said.

Bookmark this page for National Weather Service snow forecasts
Uncertainty in the forecast is pretty common more than 48 hours before a storm even has formed, as the Boston National Weather Service office noted Wednesday on Twitter.

“Well, the average model error at this time range (3 days out) is over 150 miles! For example, where will the rain/#snow line setup? 150 miles could range from Cape Cod, MA to New Haven, CT. Hence, still too early.”

Both forecast models predict this strengthening, but their storm tracks up the East Coast are different, changing what people could expect from Washington, DC, to Boston.

Compare forecast models and delay information

“For those that have been following along, I know you’ve heard it repeated to death, but the key message continues to be the same: guidance is trending favorably for a big storm, but the exact track remains uncertain,” the Boston office said. “This track is what will tell us exactly where the greatest snow, wind, and coastal flooding concerns are.”

A “farther offshore track of the low will decrease snow amounts while a track closer to shore will increase snow amounts and if the low gets close enough to the coast, a wintry mix will be possible for some eastern coastal sections (This is looking less and less likely),” said the New York office of the National Weather Service.

Blizzard conditions, coastal flooding are on the table

While it’s too early to pinpoint exact totals, it looks like the storm will hit all metro areas along Interstate 95 from Virginia to Maine starting Friday and through the day Saturday. Philadelphia, New York and Boston could get a foot of snow — or much more.

Winds of 50 mph or more are likely throughout the Northeast, with even higher gusts possible, especially along the eastern coastlines. These strong winds combined with snow will create blizzard conditions.

“A closer track would also mean higher winds and potential for blizzard conditions near the coast,” the weather service office in Philadelphia said.
How to survive a blizzard

A blizzard happens when snow combines with winds gusting over 35 mph for more than three hours and creates visibility of less than a quarter of a mile.

“Significant coastal impacts are possible in the Northeast, including coastal flooding and beach erosion,” the prediction center said.

The stronger the storm, the greater the surge of water along the coast will be. Timing also matters a lot.

“Coastal flooding is a concern thanks to astronomically high tides on Saturday,” the Boston weather service office said. “The combination of strong northeast winds and high seas will bring storm surges that, if coinciding with high tide, would lead to minor or moderate coastal flooding.”

The difference in storm timing — even as few as six hours — would make a massive difference in impact on coastal flooding and erosion concerns.

One thing is sure: Meteorologists will be glued to computer forecast model runs all day Wednesday.

“Today’s trends will certainly be important,” the weather office in Philadelphia said. “Sampling will be steadily improving, and ‘big picture’ model solutions should start converging in the next 12 to 24 hours.”

In layman’s terms: We will know more details Thursday.



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Bomb cyclone could bring powerful nor’easter to Northeast cities this weekend

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“Confidence is increasing that a significant winter storm will create considerable impacts Friday through the weekend from the Mid-Atlantic through the Northeast,” the Weather Prediction Center said Tuesday morning.

The storm is expected to move up the East Coast Friday into Saturday — its location in relation to the coast will determine whether there’s a wintry mix or a foot of snow.

Unfortunately, the forecast models are split on exactly where the low pressure system tracks and how strong it becomes by the end of the week.

It’s important to note that the forecast models change daily, and there is no reason to believe that the newer model runs are any more reliable than yesterday’s runs.

But despite the ongoing uncertainties, “it is becoming more likely that it will bring significant snow, sleet and freezing rain to the region, including the I-95 metropolitan areas,” the Weather Prediction Center added.

The National Weather Service office in Philadelphia also reiterated on Tuesday that the current forecasts for this storm are similar to other 3-5 day forecasts of past significant storms — a reason to watch this closely going forward.

Snow and ice accumulations could end up being significant. The weather service office in Boston also noted on Tuesday that some of the models have the low pressure system going right over a forecasting sweet spot known as the “70/40 Benchmark”.

Low pressure systems tracking over this spot — the intersection of 40 degrees North latitude and 70 degrees West longitude — are known for being significant in the Northeast, often bringing large amounts of snowfall to the area.

If this occurs on Friday, a swath of 8 to 12 inches of snow is very likely over areas in southern New England.

While the focus of nor’easters is typically for the Northeast, the Mid-Atlantic may also see large impacts from this system.

“This system is not a slam dunk by any means,” the office in Baltimore said Tuesday morning. “Nonetheless, the overall pattern for the event seems to be honing in on a snowy solution for much of the area.”
As the storm moves up the East Coast it is expected to strengthen rapidly, possibly becoming a bomb cyclone with strong, even damaging, winds that could cause coastal flooding and beach erosion.

High astronomical tides will combine with the winds along the Atlantic coastline and may lead to significant coastal flooding.

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New Jersey and New York issue states of emergency ahead of nor’easter

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“I am proactively declaring a State of Emergency to ensure we can provide the necessary resources to respond to this storm and protect lives and property in regions where the forecast is calling for significant rainfall,” Hochul said in a news release. “I am encouraging New Yorkers to prepare now for inclement weather expected over the coming days and urging commuters to take precaution ahead of heavy rainfall expected tomorrow morning.”

Hochul directed various state agencies earlier Monday to prepare assets for deployment to impacted regions.

New Jersey’s state of emergency began at 8 p.m., Gov. Phil Murphy said.

“Severe weather conditions will impact the state starting tonight through the next several days,” he said.

The National Weather Service has issued several flash flood watches in the northeast beginning Monday evening and lasting through Tuesday afternoon that impacts nearly 30 million people.

Lines of training thunderstorms are likely to develop, producing widespread totals of 2 to 5 inches, with higher amounts possible.

Rainfall rates will exceed 1 inch per hour at times.

This rainfall will lead to flash flooding of creeks, streams, urban areas and poor drainage areas where the rain is the heaviest.

What is a nor’easter?

A nor’easter is a storm along the East Coast with winds typically coming from the northeast, according to the National Weather Service. The storms can occur at any time of year but are most common between September and April.

In winter, temperatures associated with a nor’easter can be much more extreme than in the fall, which can lead to more intense storms and snow. The storms can cause beach erosion and rough ocean conditions, with winds of 58 mph or more.

The Metropolitan Transportation Authority, which oversees the New York City subway and other transit lines, is expecting 6 inches of rain over 12 hours, but it will be nothing like Hurricane Ida.

“At no point do we expect to see the type of intense rainfall over a very short term that we had during Hurricane Ida,” MTA’s acting Chair and CEO Janno Lieber said, noting the city saw more than 3.5 inches in one hour during Ida.

“But, we are prepared for whatever comes,” Janno added.

The biggest issue and constraint the MTA faces is the city sewers, which can be overwhelmed as they were during Ida, Janno said, but they don’t expect it to be an issue during the storm.

CNN’s Gene Norman, Rob Frehse and Kiely Westhoff contributed to this report.

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