I went 5-6 last week against the spread, dropping me to three games under .500 against the line for the season. The good: nailing my upset special with Liberty handling BYU. The bad: picking Toledo to beat Buffalo by double digits. The ugly: picking Iowa to keep it sort of close against Ohio State.
(All point spreads come from BetMGM, click here for live odds, all kickoff times Eastern.)
Notre Dame at No. 16 Syracuse (-2.5), Noon, ABC
The Orange offense has sputtered for most of the past month, going over 400 yards only once, against FCS Wagner. The defense, though, has been outstanding, and should be able to handle a very inconsistent Notre Dame attack.
Syracuse 23, Notre Dame 17 Pick: Syracuse 2.5
No. 2 Ohio State (-15.5) at No. 13 Penn State, Noon, Fox
This is the first big test for the Buckeyes, who have a ton of firepower. I think the Nittany Lions respond after getting embarrassed in the trenches on both sides of the ball at Michigan, but ultimately Ohio State’s edge at quarterback will be the difference in the second half.
Ohio State 38, Penn State 27 Pick: Penn State +15.5
No. 7 TCU (-7.5) at West Virginia, Noon, ESPN
The Mountaineers defense, especially against the pass, has been savaged this month. Now it faces a faster team than it’s seen before and with a hotter quarterback. Uh-oh.
TCU 40, West Virginia 24 Pick: TCU -7.5
No. 20 Cincinnati at UCF (-1), 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Both defenses are really good, but the Bearcats’ is better and has been more consistent.
Cincinnati 28, UCF 24 Pick: Cincinnati +1
No. 1 Georgia (-22.5) vs. Florida, 3:30 p.m., CBS
It feels like it’s time for the Bulldogs to flex their muscle again. I think Kirby Smart will have them primed to slow down dual-threat quarterback Anthony Richardson and a Gators run game that has come alive since losing at Tennessee last month.
Georgia 42, Florida 21 Pick: Florida +22.5
No. 9 Oklahoma State at No. 22 Kansas State (-1.5), 3:30 p.m., Fox
Mike Gundy’s team gives up a ton of yards but the offense has been so good, it’s been able to overcome the defensive woes. I think it will again.
Oklahoma State 35, Kansas State 31 Pick: Oklahoma State +1.5
I like Will Levis’ playmaking ability and Chris Rodriguez has really heated up since returning, but I just can’t pick against the Vols at home right now.
Tennessee 44, Kentucky 31 Pick: Tennessee -12.5
Even when Michigan has won in this heated rivalry in recent years, MSU has managed to keep it relatively tight and prevent the Wolverines from covering. But my sense is this Michigan team is different from ones in the past and will keep its foot on the gas.
Michigan 45, Michigan State 17 Pick: Michigan -22.5
No. 15 Ole Miss (-2.5) at Texas A&M, 7:30 p.m., SEC Network
Lane Kiffin will face his old defensive coordinator DJ Durkin and the Aggies should have some answers, but I don’t see them being able to wake up what has been a dreadful offense against the SEC’s top pass rush.
Ole Miss 28, Texas A&M 20 Pick: Ole Miss -2.5
Pitt at No. 21 North Carolina (-3), 8 p.m., ACC Network
The Tar Heels return home after two road trips to face a Pitt team that lost by two touchdowns at Louisville. Go with UNC. Drake Maye has a 13-0 TD-INT ratio in games at Chapel Hill.
UNC 31, Pitt 20 Pick: North Carolina -3
Upset special: Illinois (-7.5) at Nebraska, 3:30 p.m., ABC
The Huskers have played really hard for Mickey Joseph and I think they’re overdue for a big upset win, although I almost talked myself out of this one considering that Nebraska’s defense was on the field for 101 plays last week and the Illini’s was only out there for 42.
Last week was not my finest hour. Did I really pick Iowa to cover against Ohio State?
I feel much more confident this week. Really. I do.
Last week: 5-6 against the spread
Season: 44-43-1 against the spread
(All point spreads come from BetMGM, click here for live odds, all kickoff times Eastern.)
Syracuse lost a heartbreaker at Clemson but gained a lot of respect nonetheless. QB Garrett Shrader is a gamer, and the defense got after Tigers QB DJ Uiagalelei. Clemson ultimately gashed the Orange on the ground. Notre Dame aspires to have that kind of rushing attack but it has been inconsistent for much of the season.
Syracuse 27, Notre Dame 20 Pick: Syracuse -2.5
No. 2 Ohio State (-15.5) at No. 13 Penn State, Noon, Fox
Penn State’s secondary, led by CB Joey Porter Jr., has helped Penn State rank No. 5 nationally in pass efficiency defense and gives the Nittany Lions hope of at least slowing down Buckeyes star C.J. Stroud and his receivers. It’s just hard to imagine Sean Clifford and Penn State’s offense will be able to keep up for four quarters.
Ohio State 35, Penn State 24 Pick: Penn State +15.5
No. 7 TCU (-7.5) at West Virginia, Noon, ESPN
TCU is going to lose at some point, and a trip to Morgantown on the heels of facing four straight Top 25 opponents has all the makings of a trap. But Max Duggan and the Horned Frogs love to take shots, and West Virginia’s defense largely fails to stop them. The Mountaineers rank 108th nationally in 20+ yard plays allowed (39).
TCU 38, West Virginia 28 Pick: TCU -7.5
No. 20 Cincinnati at UCF (-1), 3:30 p.m., ESPN
UCF has been all over the map this season. In their last two games, the Knights put up 70 points on Temple, then got blown out 34-13 at East Carolina. QB John Rhys Plumlee threw three picks and was sacked four times by the Pirates. Luke Fickell’s defense, led by LB Ivan Pace Jr., will come after him.
Cincinnati 21, UCF 16 Pick: Cincinnati +1
No. 1 Georgia (-22.5) vs. Florida, 3:30 p.m., CBS
Florida QB Anthony Richardson had a miserable first career start against the Dawgs last season. He’s going to need to ball out for the Gators to have any chance in this one. Florida’s defense is just horrendous (105th nationally), and Georgia’s offense is particularly problematic thanks to matchup nightmares like TE Brock Bowers.
Georgia 44, Florida 20 Pick: Georgia -22.5
It’s Oklahoma State’s third straight game against a ranked opponent, and the first two — a 43-40 overtime loss to TCU and a 41-34 comeback win over Texas — were both nailbiters. While QB Adrian Martinez’s uncertain status makes it difficult to handicap K-State, it seems like the Wildcats could catch the Cowboys when they’re a tad worn out.
Kansas State 33, Oklahoma State 30 Pick: Kansas State -1.5
Kentucky QB Will Levis is the more highly regarded NFL draft prospect, yet I have considerably more confidence in Vols star Hendon Hooker. Levis effectively spelled out at a news conference that the Wildcats’ plan is to string out long drives to keep the ball away from Tennessee’s offense, but the Vols score so quickly I’m not sure that matters.
Tennessee 41, Kentucky 27 Pick: Tennessee -12.5
Mel Tucker is 2-0 against Michigan, and the Spartans have won 10 of the last 14 editions of this rivalry — which seems like a setup for the Wolverines to take out a whole lot of frustration in this one. State’s offense is a shell of last year’s Kenneth Walker III-led version and its defense is 105th nationally. Whereas Michigan is good at everything.
Michigan 42, Michigan State 14 Pick: Michigan -22.5
No. 15 Ole Miss (-2.5) at Texas A&M, 7:30 p.m., SEC Network
This line is just begging us to take the 3-4 Aggies at home, and you know Jimbo wants this one badly after some of Lane Kiffin’s potshots. But I’ve watched too much of that dreadful offense and I can’t unsee it. The Aggies don’t have a dynamic quarterback like LSU’s Jayden Daniels, who exposed the flaws of Ole Miss’ previously untested offense.
Ole Miss 24, Texas A&M 20 Pick: Ole Miss -2.5
Pitt at No. 21 North Carolina (-3), 8 p.m., ACC Network
I’ve been saying for weeks that UNC is not as good as its record (6-1) and ranking. Vegas seems to agree with me given the Tar Heels are only three-point home favorites over a 4-3 Pitt team with losses to Georgia Tech and Louisville. But Panthers QB Kedon Slovis has not looked capable of exploiting UNC’s biggest weakness, its pass defense.
North Carolina 34, Pitt 27 Pick: North Carolina -3
Upset Special: UAB (-5.5) at FAU, 7 p.m., CBS Sports Network
I don’t have any Xs and Os insight on this one. I just saw that FAU is advertising this game as “The Biggest Halloween Party in Boca Raton,” and that sounds like a scary place to be if you’re 5.5-point favorite UAB.
It’s been 21 years since Tennessee finished in the AP top five. It had almost been that long since the Vols had beaten Alabama, too, but Saturday’s thrilling 52-49 win in Knoxville is allowing UT fans to dream big again. The advanced stats, meanwhile, are backing up the dreams.
In this week’s SP+ rankings, the Vols jumped to fifth. If they finish there, it would be their best ranking since 1999. This being a predictive ranking and not a measure of résumés, they are still behind Bama overall (though the gap is closing quickly). But considering they are now given at least 71% win probability in five of their final six regular-season games, the odds of a huge season — first 10-win season since 2007? first 11-win season since 2001? first 12-win season since 1998? — are only increasing.
Below are this week’s SP+ rankings. What is SP+? In a single sentence, it’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.
SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.
This week’s movers
Let’s take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings. (Note: We’re looking at ratings, not rankings.)
Moving up
Here are the 10 teams whose ratings rose the most this week:
Hawai’i: up 4.9 adjusted points per game (ranking rose from 131st to 127th)
Syracuse: up 4.3 (from 57th to 38th)
Old Dominion: up 3.9 (from 90th to 85th)
South Alabama: up 3.5 (from 66th to 50th)
UCF: up 3.2 (from 38th to 25th)
New Mexico State: up 3.2 (from 127th to 125th)
Arizona: up 3.1 (from 96th to 88th)
TCU: up 3.0 (from 23rd to 13th)
Charlotte: up 2.6 (from 125th to 122nd)
Bowling Green: up 2.6 (from 124th to 121st)
Moving down
Here are the 10 teams whose ratings fell the most:
Notre Dame: down 4.9 points (ranking fell from 27th to 43rd)
BYU: down 4.4 (from 52nd to 70th)
NC State: down 3.4 (from 32nd to 41st)
Alabama: down 3.1 (from second to third)
UConn: down 3.1 (from 122nd to 126th)
Coastal Carolina: down 3.0 (from 46th to 61st)
Liberty: down 2.8 (from 72nd to 82nd)
Mississippi State: down 2.7 (from 12th to 20th)
Texas: down 2.5 (from fifth to sixth)
Colorado State: down 2.5 (from 126th to 128th)
Conference rankings
Here are FBS’ 10 conferences, ranked by average SP+:
1. SEC: 13.1 average SP+ (34.4 average offensive SP+, 21.4 average defensive SP+) 2. Big 12: 11.9 average SP+ (35.4 offense, 23.5 defense) 3. Big Ten: 9.8 average SP+ (30.0 offense, 20.3 defense) 4. Pac-12: 5.7 average SP+ (32.4 offense, 26.8 defense) 5. ACC: 3.7 average SP+ (29.5 offense, 25.8 defense) 6. AAC: 1.1 average SP+ (29.0 offense, 27.8 defense) 7. Sun Belt: 0.2 average SP+ (27.3 offense, 27.1 defense) 8. Conference USA: -10.7 average SP+ (24.4 offense, 35.1 defense) 9. Mountain West: -14.0 average SP+ (17.0 offense, 31.0 defense) 10. MAC: -14.5 average SP+ (21.5 offense, 35.9 defense)
We have long taken to referring to these 10 conferences as the Power Five and Group of Five, but with those averages, I think we need a new set of tiers for this season: Power Three, Middle Four and Faraway Three. The Sun Belt currently ranks seventh, but its average is almost as close to second place as eighth. And of the 32 teams ranked 100th or worse at the moment, 26 reside in one of the bottom three conferences. (Three others are independents.)
Meanwhile, 17 of the top 25 teams are from either the SEC, Big 12 or Big Ten, and another four are from the Pac-12. So maybe it’s Power Four and Middle Three?
Résumé SP+
Since the College Football Playoff rankings are on the horizon, I’m also including Résumé SP+ rankings in this piece each week.
As mentioned above, SP+ is intended to be a power rating, not a resume evaluation tool, but Résumé SP+ attempts to fill that latter gap. It is a look at two things: (1) how the average SP+ top five team would be projected to perform against your schedule (in terms of scoring margin) and (2) how your scoring margin compares to (1). Throw in a seven-point penalty for every loss a team has suffered, and you can say that this is what the CFP rankings would look like if SP+ were in charge.
(Note: Because of the high bar teams have to clear in getting compared to an average top-five team, and because of the loss adjustment, almost every team here ends up with a negative score. It is what it is.)
And now, 23 Final Thoughts from a Saturday that began at 11 a.m. Dallas time in front of 90,000 at the Cotton Bowl and ended at 11:30 p.m. Palo Alto time in front of a few thousand half-awake fans at Stanford Stadium who unwittingly (and unfortunately for them) saw the most incredible ending of the whole darn day.
1. CBS has apparently hired a psychic to run its programming department. Two years in a row, they’ve used their one prime-time pick of the season to air an Alabama-Texas A&M matchup. Both years, the Tide were massive favorites. Both years, it came down to the final play. The Aggies won on a walk-off field goal in 2021. The Tide survived on an A&M incompletion in 2022.
And now, those CBS suits are about to be big winners again. Next week, they get the biggest Alabama-Tennessee game since Nick Saban was still coaching the Dolphins.
2. Fans under the age of around 25 might not even realize that the Tide and Vols are traditional rivals, mainly because Saban’s program has won the past 15 meetings and generally fought in a different weight class than the long-dormant Vols. But lo and behold, these two will meet in Knoxville next week both with undefeated records and top-8 rankings, and for once, Alabama may be the more vulnerable team.
Especially if Heisman winner Bryce Young can’t play.
3. Alabama’s 24-20 escape against ostensibly overmatched A&M (3-3, 1-2 SEC) was a weird, weird game.
In Week 4 of the 2022 college football season, the teams that hadn’t yet looked vulnerable finally did so (except Minnesota, anyway). Georgia dilly-dallied for long periods in its win over Kent State, Michigan had to lean heavily on Blake Corum to stay ahead ahead of Maryland, USC needed all of 60 minutes to fend off Oregon State, and in the end, 12 of the remaining 33 unbeaten FBS teams lost, five as favorites.
Now that the ground has settled and all of the top teams (except Minnesota) have had at least one close call, the SP+ ratings look … about as they did before the season. Alabama’s back on top, Ohio State and Georgia are nearly tied for second, and of the teams in the current SP+ top 10, nine were projected 13th or higher in the preseason. (The exception? You guessed it: Minnesota!)
That’s not to say nothing has changed, however. The Big 12’s brilliant early showing has given it five teams in the top 23 and eight in the top 40 (and has prevented Oklahoma from falling after Saturday night’s loss to Kansas State). Out west, the Pac-12 has shown all sorts of life, jumping the ACC in the averages and landing five teams in the top 25. Beneath the surface, there is plenty of change afoot.
What is SP+? In a single sentence, it’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.
SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.
This week’s movers
After four weeks, nearly half the SP+ formula is based on actual performances instead of preseason projections. While that makes it rather impressive that so few teams have changed at the very top of the rankings, it does mean that lots of teams moved up and down significantly this week.
Moving up
Here are the 12 teams that moved up at least 11 spots after Week 4:
Kansas: up 29 spots from 81st to 52nd
Coastal Carolina: up 20 spots from 71st to 51st
South Alabama: up 19 spots from 83rd to 64th
West Virginia: up 18 spots from 58th to 40th
Georgia Southern: up 18 spots from 104th to 86th
Illinois: up 16 spots from 63rd to 47th
Western Kentucky: up 16 spots from 64th to 48th
Texas State: up 14 spots from 124th to 110th
California: up 12 spots from 75th to 63rd
Temple: up 12 spots from 123rd to 111th
Washington: up 11 spots from 35th to 24th
James Madison: up 11 spots from 79th to 68th
As you might glean from that list, the movement is a combination of both stellar Week 4 performances (hello, Coastal, WVU, WKU, Temple, and others) and the increased weight in 2022 performances to date (Kansas, Illinois, Cal, Washington). And if you were finding some gambling value in Kansas this season, that is probably about to come to an end. The books and metrics have adjusted.
Moving down
On the flipside, here are the 10 teams that moved down at least 12 spots:
Boise State: down 33 spots from 45th to 78th
North Carolina: down 23 spots from 44th to 67th
Virginia Tech: down 18 spots from 61st to 79th
Miami: down 18 spots from 27th to 45th
Arizona State: down 17 spots from 48th to 65th
Fresno State: down 15 spots from 55th to 70th
Wisconsin: down 14 spots from 15th to 29th
Wyoming: down 13 spots from 94th to 107th
Boston College: down 13 spots from 80th to 93rd
Vanderbilt: down 12 spots from 87th to 99th
After almost giving up more points to Notre Dame than the Fighting Irish’s first three opponents had combined, North Carolina has plummeted to 113th in defensive SP+, which is how you almost fall out of the overall top 70 with a top-10 offense.
Meanwhile, Boise State … yikes.
Conference rankings
1. SEC: 13.7 average SP+ (34.1 average offensive SP+, 20.6 average defensive SP+) 2. Big 12: 13.2 average (35.1 offense, 21.9 defense) 3. Big Ten: 10.6 average (31.1 offense, 20.4 defense) 4. Pac-12: 5.8 average (30.4 offense, 24.6 defense) 5. ACC: 4.0 average (30.3 offense, 26.2 defense) 6. AAC: 1.0 average (28.5 offense, 27.5 defense) 7. Sun Belt: -3.2 average (24.9 offense, 28.1 defense) 8. Conference USA: -8.7 average (25.0 offense, 33.7 defense) 9. Mountain West: -10.3 average (20.1 offense, 30.3 defense) 10. MAC: -12.0 average (23.6 offense, 35.5 defense)
Nine of the Big 12’s 10 teams have risen in the rankings since the start of the season. Kansas has risen by 51 spots, and five other teams have risen by double digits. The SEC is doing fine overall — seven of the top 17 teams, only one outside the top 60 — but its averages are sliding a bit because of drops from teams like Texas A&M, and the Big 12 has damn near reeled it in for the top spot.
Meanwhile, as mentioned above, the Pac-12 has jumped the ACC into fourth place overall. The top three conferences still have some distance on everyone else, but it has been a lovely bounceback year to date out west.
Notre Dame starting receiver Avery Davis has a torn ACL in his right knee and is out for the season, the school announced Saturday.
The Fighting Irish also announced Saturday that sophomore quarterback Tyler Buchner will start the opener against Ohio State on Sept. 3.
Davis’ injury happened during practice Friday. The senior and team captain, who was penciled in to start at slot receiver, had previously injured the ACL in his left knee last November, forcing him to miss the final month of the season.
Davis still finished third on the team in yards receiving with 386 on 27 catches.
Losing Davis depletes the Irish wide receiver group further, especially in terms of experienced players. Without Davis, only two returning wide receivers have caught more than 20 passes in a season: Braden Lenzy and Lorenzo Styles. Lenzy is the only one with starting experience.
Nobody on the depth chart behind Davis has extensive game experience.
Buchner played in 10 games last season, mostly as a backup, and threw for 298 yards, 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions last season. He also ran for 336 yards and three scores.
Buchner, a 6-foot-1, 215-pound sophomore from San Diego, had been the favorite to land the starting job. He competed with third-year sophomore Drew Pyne throughout spring practice and the early part of preseason camp.
ESPN rated Buchner as the No. 8 pocket passer and No. 41 overall player in the 2021 recruiting class.
“It was time,” coach Marcus Freeman told reporters Saturday. “It was time to give the offense clarity on who was the starting quarterback.”
Offensive coordinator Tommy Rees said Pyne, an ESPN 300 recruit in 2020, also could be called upon when needed. Rees told ESPN this spring that Buchner, while more reserved than Pyne, has grown into a stronger leadership role.
“Tyler’s a little bit more of that quiet killer, a little bit unassuming, but when a competitive situation turns on, there’s a different gear,” Rees told ESPN. “Part of his growth is to be the guy who can lead, but his style is a little bit different. Tyler’s confidence is through the roof, [but] you don’t get that unless you really spend some time with him.”
Rees said decision-making ultimately would shape the decision on the starter, but also noted that Buchner brings different elements to the offense with his mobility.
“It’s something I’ve really focused on, putting the ball in the right spot and taking care of the football,” Buchner told ESPN this spring, “but also, when things break down, having the ability to try and go make a play and make something out of nothing, is something that really separates me.”
Information from ESPN’s Adam Rittenberg and The Associated Press was used in this report.
The matchups for the 2022 men’s and women’s Jimmy V Classic college basketball events were announced Thursday, highlighted by Duke on the men’s side and a pair of potential top-10 matchups on the women’s side.
The men’s doubleheader will take place Dec. 6 at Madison Square Garden, with Duke facing Iowa and Texas playing Illinois. The women’s games will be hosted on campus sites Dec. 4: UConn at Notre Dame and Virginia Tech at Tennessee.
The coming season marks the first time since 1980 that Duke will be coached by someone other than Mike Krzyzewski, with Jon Scheyer taking over that role. The Blue Devils bring in the nation’s No. 1-ranked recruiting class and are ranked No. 5 in ESPN’s latest Way-Too-Early Top 25.
The Longhorns and the Fighting Illini also are ranked in the Way-Too-Early Top 25. Chris Beard and Texas bring back three starters from last season’s 22-win team, while also welcoming two five-star freshmen and elite transfer Tyrese Hunter from Iowa State. Illinois lost All-American Kofi Cockburn, but it landed impact transfers Terrence Shannon Jr. (Texas Tech) and Matthew Mayer (Baylor), as well as top-25 recruit Skyy Clark.
Both men’s games will air on ESPN.
On the women’s side, all four teams are ranked in the top 11 of ESPN’s most recent Way-Too-Early Top 25.
UConn is coming off a national championship game appearance and returns stars Paige Bueckers and Azzi Fudd, while Notre Dame brings back most of its contributors and hit the portal for Texas transfer Lauren Ebo.
Virginia Tech should compete for an ACC championship with the return of conference Player of the Year Elizabeth Kitley, and Tennessee loaded up in the transfer portal and is receiving preseason top-five hype.
UConn’s trip to Notre Dame will be broadcast on ABC, and Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee will air on ESPN2.
Named for legendary coach Jim Valvano, the Jimmy V Classic raises money and awareness for the V Foundation for Cancer Research. To date, ESPN has helped raise more than $155 million for the V Foundation. Last year set a record, with 2021’s V Week raising $13.35 million.
The move heard ’round the college football world last week inspired more than 200 questions for this week’s Dear Andy mailbag. But in trying to answer two in particular, I had a thought that I’d be fascinated to see put into action.
With USC and UCLA gone from the Pac-12 and headed to the Big Ten, Oregon and Washington are in peril and empowered at the same time. They don’t want to lose their stature, so naturally, they’d love to go to the Big Ten. But what if that’s not an option? They become some of the best options remaining on the board, and what they do could determine the futures of the Pac-12 and the Big 12. Joe and Jesse each came at their questions from a different direction, but they both lead to a potentially cutthroat scenario depending on how the dominoes fall.
Should Oregon pursue independence if Big Ten membership is off the table? — Joe in Albany, Ore.
One thing I’ve found interesting this past week has been the idea that the Pac-12 will try and steal from the Big 12. At this point, what Big 12 team would want to leave? Especially without USC and UCLA, is the Pac-12 really a more enviable destination? — Jesse
Notre Dame may hold the keys for everyone, but it feels as if Oregon and Washington hold the keys in the Big 12/Pac-12 situation. Obviously, Oregon and Washington would like to join USC and UCLA in the Big Ten. They would make sense in that league, too. They are big brands with passionate fan bases, and the schools are members of the prestigious Association of American Universities. They also would provide some travel partners for their fellow Pac-12 defectors.
But they clearly haven’t gotten an answer as to whether joining the Big Ten is a possibility. How do we know this? Because as soon as the Big Ten said it wanted them, Oregon and Washington would be gone. And if the Big Ten offered a definitive no, then Oregon and Washington would be moving to lock down their respective futures.
Presumably, the Big Ten’s next move depends on Notre Dame’s choice. If the Fighting Irish want to join, they’re in and the rest of the league decides if it wants to admit anyone else. But if Notre Dame isn’t ready to make that decision, it doesn’t have to. It is the one school that has an open invitation from every league whenever it wants. And the Big Ten could just hang out at 16 schools while it waits for the puff of white smoke or whatever signal the Domers choose to announce their choice.
If Notre Dame doesn’t choose soon, it could put Oregon and Washington in an awkward position. If the Big Ten isn’t sure it’s done expanding, the Ducks and Huskies shouldn’t lock themselves into any long-term deal. But the remaining Pac-12 members might be keen on making a long-term pact that ensures no one else leaves.
Sorry, Joe, but I don’t think independence is a viable option. I’m one of the people who always said Notre Dame should never join a conference in football if it didn’t want to, and after last week I think Notre Dame may have no choice but to join a conference in football. If Notre Dame can’t be independent anymore, there is no way Oregon could pull it off. But that doesn’t mean the Ducks don’t wield any power. Quite the contrary. If the Big Ten doesn’t shut the door, they and the Huskies have some options.
They could hold the Pac-12 together, providing two tentpole programs for that league — which presumably would expand. Jesse asks which Big 12 schools would leave for the Pac-12. All of them would as long as Oregon and Washington are still there. So the Pac-12 schools could select which ones they feel fit best.
There also is the possibility that the Pac-12 and ACC could come to some sort of rights-pooling agreement that could provide the remaining Pac-12 schools with some stability and the ACC schools with a few new revenue streams that might help soothe the members who feel they carry all the weight and deserve an unequal share of the pie. But that feels highly theoretical, and it also feels a little like a more fleshed-out version of The Alliance, the partnership formed last year by the ACC, the Big Ten and the Pac-12. “It’s about trust,” ACC commissioner Jim Phillips said at the time. “We’ve looked each other in the eye. We’ve made an agreement.” The Alliance essentially imploded last week when one of the leagues gutted another like a fish. And that tends to happen with these things. In 2010, the Pac-10 held informal meetings with the Big 12 about pooling television rights. A few months later, the Pac-10 tried to steal half the Big 12’s members.
Realignment is a dirty business, so perhaps it’s time the Big 12 tried to fight to win instead of merely to survive. What if the Big 12 could get Oregon and Washington? That may sound silly on its face, but we’re talking about a league with a new commissioner (former Roc Nation COO Brett Yormark) who doesn’t come from the college sports industry. Unlike a former athletic director, he doesn’t have to worry about shanking his friends to keep his conference ahead. He didn’t know these people before, so he can shank away.
Here’s the pitch. Tell Oregon and Washington they can join the Big 12, but just as a coach might get an out clause for his alma mater in his contract, let them have a clause that says they can leave with no financial penalty if the Big Ten wants them. (Maybe protect the league a little by forcing them to give something reasonable like 18 months notice.) Then use their defection to also grab Colorado, Utah, Arizona and Arizona State. If you must take Oregon State and Washington State to get Oregon and Washington because of political pressure in those states, take them and either just get really big or lop off two from the rest of the incoming group. Since the Pac-12’s media rights deal ends in 2024, go to partners Fox and ESPN and ask to begin negotiating a new deal that would begin in 2024 instead of 2025, when the next Big 12 deal is supposed to start. Write in the contract that you understand the payout will go down if Oregon and Washington leave.
If Oregon and Washington wind up staying, that 18-team league probably would be No. 3 behind the Big Ten and SEC in per-school revenue. The Big 12’s current deal (which includes Oklahoma and Texas) already pays more than the ACC and Pac-12’s deals. Oklahoma and Texas will be gone — and in this scenario, they’d be in the SEC in 2024 — but that lineup would be every bit as strong as the ACC’s. More importantly, that lineup can be on the market now.
Every league wants conference affiliation to be a 100-year decision, but if the last 100 years have taught us anything, it just isn’t. If anyone should understand that, it’s the presidents and athletic directors of the Big 12. Their league has been through every conceivable realignment scenario.
It has been clinically dead for a few minutes (2010). It has been minutes from implosion (2011). It has held a dog-and-pony show for potential members that resulted in nothing (2016). It has taken an epic gut punch and then grabbed four new members (2021). So while the presidents of the Pac-12 schools — who are new at this sort of thing — ask for blood oaths to ensure no one ever leaves their league again, the Big 12 should try to offer some flexibility to create the strongest lineup it can right now.
If that lineup stays together, great. If it doesn’t, well, the Big 12 has been through this sort of thing before.
But the conference that always seems to find a way to survive might soon have an opening to buy itself a little more time.
(Photo: Jacob Snow / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
The reverberations from USC and UCLA exiting the Pac-12 for the Big Ten continue. The Big 12 intends to position itself to scoop up the most desirable remaining Pac-12 members, turning the tables on how things stood a year ago. The Pac-12 will enact its own plan, but, perhaps most importantly, can it hold on to Oregon and Washington? Meanwhile, questions loom at the national level. While all eyes are on what Notre Dame will do, what’s there to make of North Carolina? The Athletic staff dives into the latest realignment developments.
The Big 12 on the offensive?
The Big 12 has been given an unexpected opportunity to strengthen its position among the Power 5 conferences. Its new commissioner doesn’t want to waste it.
The league is having “serious” talks with six Pac-12 schools — Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Oregon, Utah and Washington — and is determined to move quickly, sources told The Athletic. Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark, hired just last week, has been described as “super aggressive” by one source and has the backing of the Big 12 presidents and chancellors to pursue the addition of Pac-12 members.
It’s unclear just how quickly the Big 12 could get a deal done on its expansion efforts, but those sources expressed optimism that Yormark can pull it off. CBS Sports first reported the Big 12 was in discussions about adding multiple Pac-12 schools.
Arizona and Arizona State have long been considered logical fits for the Big 12 if those schools ever had interest in exiting the Pac-12. But USC and UCLA bolting to the Big Ten has the Big 12 dreaming bigger. It’s also eyeing Utah, the Pac-12’s football champion in 2021, and Colorado, a Big Eight and Big 12 member until 2011.
The aspirations of Oregon and Washington are more difficult to predict right now. For both, it likely makes sense to keep their options open and hold out for the possibility of joining the Big Ten or SEC. The Big 12 would take those first four, but an effort to bring in all six is certainly worth attempting.
“(Yormark has) talked about making sure we’re going to be aggressive, we’re not going to sit on our hands,” one Big 12 athletic director told The Athletic. “I’ve talked to some ADs, and we think we’re in a position of strength.”
Yormark first met his ADs last Friday in a Zoom meeting, and several said he was impressive in his debut. He was strong in his conviction that the Big 12 can thrive in this changing climate and appears to have the right connections to help it happen. He wasn’t supposed to officially get to work until Aug. 1, but Yormark is embracing this opportunity to disrupt and knows the Big 12 can’t afford to sit back and watch this latest realignment saga unfold. — Max Olson and Chris Vannini
What the Big 12 could gain from adding these particular Pac-12 programs
When any league has a chance to be an aggressor in a round of conference realignment, it usually takes it. Beyond the obvious draw of Oregon and Washington, the Arizona schools would bring the Phoenix media market, the 11th-largest in the country. Colorado would bring Denver (No. 16), and Utah would solidify Salt Lake City (No. 30) alongside incoming Big 12 member BYU.
It also makes sense from a scheduling and travel perspective, especially with BYU already in the fold starting in 2023. It would preserve the Holy War, and while keeping or reigniting rivalries isn’t typically a major driving factor in any move like this, it would be a great byproduct.
A source at one of the target schools noted that many Pac-12 fans don’t travel well, and the strong fan bases in the Big 12 are another factor that make the conference intriguing. The idea of having Iowa State, BYU or Kansas State fans visit more regularly than several current Pac-12 schools could be appealing.
One Big 12 source noted that Colorado was “very skittish” back in 2010 when it fled the Big 12 for the Pac-12, seeking stability as well as the potential exposure/enrollment of the West Coast. Perhaps that calculation looks a little different in the current college athletic landscape — and a Pac-12 that doesn’t include the L.A. schools.
“I think a lot of things are possible,” the Big 12 source said. — Nicole Auerbach and Vannini
How is the Pac-12 responding?
Less than a week after the league lost its flagship schools, a Pac-12 source said that the conference is operating with a sense of urgency but is “not panicked.” If one of the remaining Pac-12 schools suddenly got a call from the Big Ten or the SEC, the source said it would be reason enough for the rest to press a panic button. But the Big 12? The source said that the current iteration of the Big 12 isn’t an obvious yes. It might make more sense for the Arizonas/Colorado/Utah contingent to wait a bit and consider all options, including whatever the Pac-12 is able to cobble together as a counteroffer.
One option that is worth exploring, the source said, is some sort of partnership between the Pac-12 and the ACC. (Just don’t call it an “alliance,” please.) Both leagues need a boost, because they’re both about to fall way behind the SEC and Big Ten in terms of annual revenue. The ACC is stuck in a media rights deal that essentially depreciates in value and doesn’t expire until 2036 — would a deal with the Pac-12 allow the ACC to renegotiate such a (bad) deal? It’s a question that administrators across the country are asking. — Auerbach
Could the Pac-12 end up regretting its 2021 inaction?
Less than a year ago, the Pac-12 could’ve made a move. New commissioner George Kliavkoff received plenty of interest from leaders at Big 12 schools who were looking to jump ship. It would’ve been way too easy to poach its most attractive members, plant a flag in the state of Texas and potentially bring an end to the Big 12.
But to the Pac-12, those schools just weren’t attractive enough.
Kliavkoff instead pursued the option that his conference believed added more value at the time, partnering with the ACC and Big Ten for their ill-fated Alliance. ACC commissioner Jim Phillips said at the time that they hoped the pact would “allow a conference like the Big 12 to figure out their path forward.” Calling that merciful seems a bit generous, but inaction on expansion by the Pac-12 did aid the Big 12 in coming together and agreeing to bring in four new members.
The Big 12 survived because no Power 5 league wanted its eight remaining schools. The Pac-12 might not be so fortunate.
“Shame on the Big 12 if they don’t do what the Pac-12 was unwilling to do last year,” one Group of 5 AD told The Athletic.
That’s not to say the Pac-12 would’ve avoided its present-day problems by raiding the Big 12. Even if USC and UCLA had been supportive of expansion (and sources believe they were not), such a move wouldn’t have prevented them from bolting for a better deal in the Big Ten.
But it was a moment in time in which the Pac-12 could’ve knocked a competitor out of the market and established a Power 4.
The Big 12 can do the same right now, though it won’t be quite as easy to pull off. Nobody is questioning whether Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah add enough value to the Big 12 to be worthwhile. Its leaders want to be aggressive. They’ve lived through this exact cycle of panic, fear and uncertainty, so they know how vulnerable the Pac-12 presidents are right now and how amenable they should be to the offer of a good solution.
The wild card, of course, is Yormark. He has plenty to learn about this landscape, and he’s having to do so as fast as possible. Yormark brings 30-plus years of experience in pro sports, not college. He doesn’t have longtime relationships with these commissioners. Maybe that helps. He doesn’t owe it to them to be collegial. The Big 12 has been through enough to know doing nothing can prove costly. — Olson
Why is the Pac-12 opening its media rights negotiations now?
The Pac-12 announced on Tuesday that its Board of Directors had “authorized the conference to immediately begin negotiations for its next media rights agreements.” The timing grabbed attention, but sources inside and out of the Pac-12 seemed to think it made sense. The Pac-12, with its current agreement up in 2024, needs to do anything and everything it can to preserve its existence, and it believes that going to media partners and getting their valuation will help.
Or maybe you can game out a merger or partnership.
If you’re Arizona or Colorado, wouldn’t you want all the facts and figures before deciding to jump to some other league? It’s useful info that perhaps will lead to the current Pac-12 members recommitting to one another. At least, that’s the optimistic view of the situation.
A more pessimistic view: Getting the numbers does not change the numbers. The Pac-12’s value to potential media partners has taken a significant hit, whether it can put a specific dollar figure on that or not. — Auerbach
So, what about the best of the rest?
A former Pac-12 administrator put it in simple terms Tuesday: Oregon and Washington trump anything that the Big 12 can offer.
That’s worth remembering in all of this, as the Big 12 and its new, uninhibited commissioner look to punch first and annex a portion of what’s left of the Pac-12. While it’s unclear what the Ducks and Huskies may do — and what real options they have at the moment — it is safe to say that those two programs, more than anyone else, have control over the fate of the Pac-12 right now.
The Pac-12 is no doubt trying to get ahead of matters itself — why else would it put out a statement saying it will immediately begin its media rights negotiations? — but that statement likely does little to actually affect the current situation.
It also distracts from the bigger questions at play on a national level.
What will Notre Dame do?
And, perhaps as importantly, what will North Carolina do?
Don’t underestimate the power of the Tar Heels in all of this. While things have been relatively quiet in ACC country since the UCLA and USC news last week, UNC remains the biggest prize not named Notre Dame. It is a national brand — what other school has a shade of blue named after it? — with a sterling academic reputation. And it is the flagship school of the nation’s 10th-biggest state in terms of population — one that happens to be the biggest remaining state that is not currently in the Big Ten or SEC footprint.
Either of the “Power Two” conferences can make legitimate cases for why it should add UNC. Its former chancellor (Carol Folt) is now the president of USC, the newest member of the Big Ten, which used to be run by a former Tar Heels point guard named Jim Delany. The SEC, meanwhile, could view the potential addition of the school as the perfect response to the Big Ten’s move last week, while also doing little to upset the current league membership.
The assumption has long been that if schools were able to leave the ACC — that conference’s grant of rights remains a thorny issue — and the SEC was interested in further expansion, the obvious candidates would be Clemson and Florida State, which have combined to win six football national titles since 1981 and three since 2013. But North Carolina is held in high regard in certain quarters of the SEC. So is Virginia, which on its face would seem a better fit for the Big Ten. UVA is the flagship university in the next-largest state that contains neither a Big Ten nor SEC school. And that could make it valuable to both leagues.
If a package deal were required to convince North Carolina to spurn the Big Ten (where it would fit quite well), then perhaps the SEC could try to add a mix of brand power, football success and academic prestige while also filling in its region’s map. Adding all four would bring the SEC’s future membership to 20, which would have sounded absurd a year ago. But nothing seems absurd now. — Matt Fortuna and Andy Staples
(Photo: Matthew Pearce / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
The jet lag from Sunday’s flight home from the 2022 NFL draft in Las Vegas has barely worn off, but I’m already digging in on the 2023 class. I’m that excited about this group. After only one quarterback was selected in the first 73 picks this year, we could see a handful in the first round next April. There are also truly special prospects on the defensive side of the ball, and I think we could see five-plus receivers in Round 1 yet again. So let’s project the early scope of the first round.
Now, this is an extremely early prediction. I haven’t spent much time with the 2023 class’ tape yet, and a lot of this is based on what I’ve seen while watching prospects in person over the past two seasons and early buzz around the league. Expect big changes between now and next April. My 2022 way-too-early mock, for example, featured 10 prospects who ultimately were first-rounders and predicted five top-10 picks — but eight players listed ultimately didn’t enter the draft, and 14 others weren’t selected in Round 1. It’s still 12 months out, and we have a full college season and a long pre-draft process ahead.
Then there is the draft order, which I did not decide. We opted to project the order using the inverse of Super Bowl odds from Caesars Sportsbook, though we broke some ties and tweaked the end of the order to ensure seven teams from each conference in the playoffs. That puts Houston on the clock to get things going in Round 1.
Note: Underclassmen are noted with an asterisk. Traded picks are shown below as well.
C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State*
The Texans believe in quarterback Davis Mills, but if they actually end up picking No. 1 next April, something went terribly awry for Mills during his sophomore season. Stroud has a big arm, completing 71.9% of his passes for 4,435 yards, 44 touchdowns and just six interceptions in 2021. The third-year sophomore has only 12 career starts, though, so all eyes will be on him this season.
Bryce Young, QB, Alabama*
Detroit wisely focused on the rest of its roster last week, but it will likely have to find its franchise quarterback in 2023 and has a prime chance to do so at No. 2 with Young still on the board. A former five-star recruit, Young is only 6-foot but has solid accuracy and plenty of mobility in the pocket. And he clearly has chemistry with receiver Jameson Williams, one of the Lions’ first-round picks this year, considering nearly a third of Young’s 4,872 passing yards in 2021 went Williams’ way. Jared Goff’s dead money dips to just $10 million next offseason, making the Lions’ QB easier to move on from.
Will Anderson Jr., DE, Alabama*
Anderson is probably the best player in the 2023 draft class and is here at No. 3 only because the teams picking at Nos. 1 and 2 need quarterbacks. The 6-foot-4, 243-pounder is a special player with elite traits and great burst to the quarterback. He led the nation in sacks (17.5), tackles for loss (34.5) and pressures (79) last year. Pairing Anderson with Jermaine Johnson II (a first-rounder this year) could give New York one of the least expensive yet best overall edge tandems in the NFL.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State*
If you don’t know the name yet, go watch some Rose Bowl highlights. Smith-Njigba caught 15 passes for 347 yards (a bowl game record) and three touchdowns in Ohio State’s win against Utah — putting him over 1,600 receiving yards for the season. It’s very possible he is a better prospect than Garrett Wilson or Chris Olave, who both just went in the top 11 picks. The Jags signed Christian Kirk and Zay Jones in March, but they still need a true WR1 for Trevor Lawrence. JSN can be that guy.
Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia*
Another Georgia defender? The 6-foot-3, 310-pounder is extremely disruptive and would help shore up Atlanta’s run defense while providing a pass-rush spark from the interior. And yes, Grady Jarrett just signed an extension, but he will be 30 years old when the draft comes back around. Carter is the best player available here and a difference-maker.
As for quarterback, it’s a very possible direction for the Falcons. But Stroud and Young are off the board, and I get the sense that they would like to develop Desmond Ridder and give him a chance if there isn’t another clear and obvious upgrade on the table.
Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida*
The Panthers, however, should start scouting the 2023 signal-callers. I’m not so sure they view Matt Corral as a long-term option, and Sam Darnold will be off the books after this season. Plus, Carolina could have a new regime in place, especially if it’s picking this early again. Now, Richardson is a huge projection — the 6-foot-4, 236-pound passer played in just eight games and started once last year — and has some turnover issues. But he’s extremely talented and poised for a breakout season in his first as a full-time starter.
Jordan Addison, WR, Pittsburgh*
Addison entered the transfer portal, so where he’ll be suiting up this season is still up in the air. He was among the best receivers in college football last season with 100 catches for 1,593 yards and 17 trips to the end zone. The Bears opted to wait until Round 3 to draft a receiver (Velus Jones Jr.) and still need a legitimate outside starter opposite Darnell Mooney.
Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
The Giants didn’t pick up Daniel Jones’ fifth-year option, which leaves the QB seat up for grabs next season. Levis needs to find more consistency, but he has a live arm and a big 6-foot-3, 232-pound frame. He has thrived in the quick game at Kentucky, with a lot of run-pass options and screen-type stuff, but there are some Josh Allen-like traits here for new Giants coach Brian Daboll. Oh, and Levis connected with receiver Wan’Dale Robinson — whom the Giants drafted in Round 2 this year — 104 times last season.
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Mel Kiper Jr. breaks down which players teams should keep their eye on for the 2023 NFL draft.
Tyler Van Dyke, QB, Miami*
Van Dyke didn’t consistently play like a first-rounder in nine starts last season, but the 6-foot-4, 224-pounder has the talent of a future franchise passer. The third-year sophomore just needs to take the next step this year. Seattle GM John Schneider and coach Pete Carroll seem to still legitimately like Drew Lock’s potential as an NFL starter, but if the Seahawks have another disappointing season and another top-10 pick, they could be in the market for an upgrade.
Eli Ricks, CB, Alabama*
After a four-interception freshman year at LSU, Ricks missed most of 2021 with an injured shoulder and then transferred to Alabama. He’s a smooth press corner who can take away an opponent’s No. 1 receiver. The Commanders’ top two corners — William Jackson III and Kendall Fuller — are both under contract for only two more years, and the team’s pass defense has struggled, so adding a playmaker on the outside makes a lot of sense. One more note here: Ricks was arrested on Monday for speeding and possession of marijuana.
Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State*
Only the Dolphins had a worse pass block win rate than the Steelers last season (48.8%), and I don’t think Pittsburgh did enough to fix the line. When it decides to turn the offense’s keys over to new quarterback Kenny Pickett, the protection has to be there. Johnson has 13 career starts (all at right guard) and allowed only one sack last season. He will slide outside to left tackle this year.
Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia*
I thought Philadelphia might look at a cornerback in Round 1 this year, but the long-term spot opposite Darius Slay remains open — and Slay is currently primed to hit free agency in 2024. Ringo broke up eight passes and picked off two in 2021 as part of the dominant Bulldogs defense. One of those interceptions was a memorable one in the College Football Playoff national title game.
Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern*
Skoronski already has a lot of experience (21 starts), and the 6-foot-4, 294-pound lineman has the makings of a future franchise tackle, as long as he tacks on more weight. Las Vegas needs another bookend for the line opposite Kolton Miller.
Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson*
The Vikings had one of the worst run defenses in the NFL last season and didn’t draft a defensive tackle this year, and Dalvin Tomlinson is entering the final year of his contract. Bresee suffered a torn ACL in September, but he’s primed to return for a big 2022 campaign.
Noah Sewell, ILB, Oregon*
The brother of 2021 first-rounder Penei Sewell, Noah Sewell can impact multiple areas of the game. The 6-foot-3, 251-pound linebacker had 110 tackles, four sacks and six pass breakups last season. And the Patriots are still looking for a leader in the middle of their defense.
Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson*
The Dolphins tied for fifth in sacks last season and just re-signed Emmanuel Ogbah, but Murphy would be another playmaker off the edge who can get home on opposing QBs. He has 11.5 sacks over two seasons at Clemson and looks like a future impact player at the next level.
Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame*
Mayer finished his sophomore season with 71 catches (third among tight ends) and 840 receiving yards (fourth). He has tremendous 6-foot-4, 251-pound size and good hands. The Titans would love a playmaking tight end like Mayer for quarterback Ryan Tannehill — or Malik Willis, should the Titans make that move going into 2023.
Derick Hall, DE, Auburn
Hall broke out in 2021, recording nine sacks and 13 tackles for loss in his first season as a full-time starter. Will he take another step in 2022? The Colts are coming off a 33-sack season, and while they traded for Yannick Ngakoue and should see more from Kwity Paye in his second year, you can never have enough productive pass-rushers.
Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas*
Zero running backs were taken in Round 1 this year, but I expect we’ll return to seeing at least one come off the board on Day 1 next April. After going cornerback earlier, Philly could look to spark the run game here. At 6-foot and 214 pounds, Robinson is a unique talent both as a runner and receiver. He piled up 1,127 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns last season, but he also caught 26 passes for 295 yards and four more scores. Miles Sanders is entering the final year of his current deal, and the Eagles played their best football last season when they leaned on the run.
Clark Phillips III, CB, Utah*
Phillips is already a two-year starter, and he broke up 12 passes last season. Arizona’s cornerback room has holes, and that’s before factoring in that Byron Murphy Jr. is entering the final year of his contract.
Kayshon Boutte, WR, LSU*
Everyone loved the Ravens’ 2022 draft, but remember that they traded away Marquise Brown, leaving Rashod Bateman and Devin Duvernay as their top two wide receivers. Boutte is a top-15-caliber prospect who had nine touchdown catches in six games last year before a leg injury ended his season.
Trenton Simpson, ILB, Clemson*
The Bengals drafted a pair of versatile defensive backs in the first two rounds this year, and they spent on the offensive line in free agency. If the fixes prove effective, one area they could instead look at in 2023 is linebacker. Simpson had 63 tackles and six sacks last season, and he can drop in coverage.
BJ Ojulari, DE, LSU*
We already got Houston a quarterback, so how about a high-end edge rusher for new coach Lovie Smith’s defense? I love Ojulari’s burst and bend off the edge.
Henry To’oTo’o, ILB, Alabama
The Cowboys just used a fifth-rounder on linebacker Damone Clark, who will miss 2022 because of a back injury but should be ready to roll in 2023. Even so, adding another top-flight linebacker could help free up Micah Parsons in a more versatile role in which he thrives. To’oTo’o made 106 tackles last season.
Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State*
At 6-foot-2 and 192 pounds, Porter has size on the outside and some versatility, though he has only one career interception. I like the upside of defensive backs Coby Bryant and Tariq Woolen, midround picks for Seattle this year, but the Seahawks really need a potential star to improve this pass D.
Zion Nelson, OT, Miami*
I actually had Nelson in my way-too-early mock this time last year, and he’s back again after opting to return to Miami. Nelson has 33 starts and could be the answer opposite Rashawn Slater on the Chargers’ offensive line.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama*
Gibbs was a hidden gem at Georgia Tech, and now I expect him to explode onto the national stage after transferring to Alabama. His pass-catching ability out of the backfield will get a lot of attention. Pairing Gibbs with Chase Edmonds (Myles Gaskin and Raheem Mostert are under contract for only 2022) would give Miami a very strong rushing attack.
Tony Grimes, CB, UNC*
Grimes has 6-foot-1 size and good speed, and he broke up seven passes last season. A duo of Grimes and Jeff Okudah should help turn things around for Detroit’s lackluster pass defense.
Emil Ekiyor Jr., G, Alabama
We’ll see how Green Bay’s moves at wide receiver play out; if quarterback Aaron Rodgers can’t find a reliable target this year, the Packers might be looking for a first-round pass-catcher next April. Another way to help Rodgers? Drafting Ekiyor, a versatile lineman with 28 starts under his belt.
Nolan Smith, OLB, Georgia
The 6-foot-3, 235-pound defender’s sack production isn’t overwhelming (3.5 in 2021 and 8.5 over three seasons), but he forced three fumbles last year and has a lot of upside. I’m excited to see what he can do in 2022 with much of the Georgia defense heading to the NFL. Smith could help the Chiefs keep the AFC West’s talented quarterbacks in check.
Josh Downs, WR, UNC*
Downs is an explosive route runner who caught 101 passes for 1,335 yards last season and excelled after the catch. He’d be dangerous in Tampa Bay’s offense. Also keep an eye on the QB situation here; the Buccaneers could potentially turn to Kyle Trask or sign a free agent if Tom Brady retires after the 2022 season, but they could also focus on the draft class for a replacement.
Marvin Mims, WR, Oklahoma*
Another year, another loaded wide receiver class. Mims is undersized at 5-foot-11 and 177 pounds, and he hasn’t caught more than 37 passes in a season. But his 22.0 yards per reception ranked third in the nation last season, and he’d be yet another target for quarterback Josh Allen.
