College football SP+ rankings after Week 4

In Week 4 of the 2022 college football season, the teams that hadn’t yet looked vulnerable finally did so (except Minnesota, anyway). Georgia dilly-dallied for long periods in its win over Kent State, Michigan had to lean heavily on Blake Corum to stay ahead ahead of Maryland, USC needed all of 60 minutes to fend off Oregon State, and in the end, 12 of the remaining 33 unbeaten FBS teams lost, five as favorites.

Now that the ground has settled and all of the top teams (except Minnesota) have had at least one close call, the SP+ ratings look … about as they did before the season. Alabama’s back on top, Ohio State and Georgia are nearly tied for second, and of the teams in the current SP+ top 10, nine were projected 13th or higher in the preseason. (The exception? You guessed it: Minnesota!)

That’s not to say nothing has changed, however. The Big 12’s brilliant early showing has given it five teams in the top 23 and eight in the top 40 (and has prevented Oklahoma from falling after Saturday night’s loss to Kansas State). Out west, the Pac-12 has shown all sorts of life, jumping the ACC in the averages and landing five teams in the top 25. Beneath the surface, there is plenty of change afoot.

What is SP+? In a single sentence, it’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.

SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.

SP+ Week 5 rankings

Team	SP+	Off. SP+	Def. SP+	Special Teams
1. Alabama (4-0)	30.3	42.8 (4)	12.8 (4)	0.3 (21)
2. Ohio St. (4-0)	29.4	46.2 (1)	16.6 (13)	-0.2 (98)
3. Georgia (4-0)	28.8	41.5 (5)	13.1 (5)	0.4 (8)
4. Michigan (4-0)	25.3	41.3 (6)	16.4 (11)	0.4 (4)
5. Oklahoma (3-1)	23.8	42.9 (3)	19.3 (24)	0.2 (35)
6. Ole Miss (4-0)	20.7	37.8 (13)	17.3 (15)	0.2 (39)
7. Minnesota (4-0)	20.5	33.0 (40)	12.7 (3)	0.2 (38)
8. Tennessee (4-0)	19.3	43.7 (2)	24.6 (54)	0.2 (43)
9. Utah (3-1)	19.0	37.4 (15)	18.7 (20)	0.3 (23)
10. Penn St. (4-0)	18.5	33.7 (33)	15.0 (7)	-0.1 (86)
11. Texas (2-2)	18.4	40.2 (7)	21.9 (33)	0.1 (45)
12. LSU (3-1)	17.4	35.0 (25)	17.3 (14)	-0.3 (125)
13. Clemson (4-0)	17.2	35.5 (23)	18.5 (19)	0.1 (48)
14. Cincinnati (3-1)	16.8	36.1 (21)	19.2 (22)	0.0 (73)
15. Oklahoma St. (3-0)	16.8	36.9 (18)	20.4 (28)	0.4 (5)
16. Kentucky (4-0)	16.5	30.9 (52)	14.6 (6)	0.3 (26)
17. Miss. St. (3-1)	15.9	34.4 (31)	18.9 (21)	0.4 (3)
18. Baylor (3-1)	15.8	31.7 (47)	15.9 (9)	-0.1 (80)
19. UCLA (4-0)	15.4	37.9 (12)	22.4 (39)	-0.1 (74)
20. NC St. (4-0)	15.3	30.6 (53)	15.6 (8)	0.3 (12)
21. Oregon (3-1)	15.2	39.9 (9)	24.7 (57)	0.0 (68)
22. Texas A&M (3-1)	14.5	26.7 (73)	12.3 (2)	0.1 (46)
23. Kansas St. (3-1)	14.3	30.9 (50)	16.5 (12)	-0.1 (77)
24. Washington (4-0)	14.2	32.1 (44)	18.1 (17)	0.2 (32)
25. USC (4-0)	14.1	36.5 (19)	22.1 (35)	-0.3 (110)
26. Notre Dame (2-2)	13.9	33.0 (39)	19.5 (25)	0.3 (15)
27. Iowa (3-1)	12.5	22.4 (101)	10.2 (1)	0.3 (11)
28. Arkansas (3-1)	12.5	37.3 (16)	24.5 (52)	-0.3 (109)
29. Wisconsin (2-2)	12.0	30.1 (56)	17.9 (16)	-0.2 (93)
30. Maryland (3-1)	12.0	37.4 (14)	25.8 (66)	0.4 (2)
31. Iowa St. (3-1)	11.4	31.3 (49)	19.8 (26)	-0.1 (87)
32. TCU (3-0)	11.3	36.1 (20)	24.9 (58)	0.0 (65)
33. Florida St. (4-0)	11.2	33.6 (35)	22.2 (37)	-0.3 (104)
34. BYU (3-1)	11.0	34.2 (32)	23.0 (41)	-0.2 (101)
35. Michigan St. (2-2)	10.4	34.9 (27)	24.2 (50)	-0.3 (116)
36. Purdue (2-2)	10.3	33.7 (34)	23.1 (42)	-0.3 (113)
37. Pittsburgh (3-1)	9.9	38.0 (11)	27.8 (73)	-0.3 (119)
38. Auburn (3-1)	9.2	29.5 (60)	20.6 (29)	0.3 (25)
39. UCF (3-1)	8.8	29.0 (61)	20.0 (27)	-0.2 (89)
40. W. Virginia (2-2)	8.7	33.6 (36)	25.0 (59)	0.1 (52)
41. SMU (2-2)	8.4	37.3 (17)	29.0 (81)	0.1 (53)
42. Wake Forest (3-1)	8.3	39.9 (8)	31.9 (100)	0.3 (20)
43. Oregon St. (3-1)	8.1	32.1 (45)	23.6 (44)	-0.4 (127)
44. Florida (2-2)	7.8	35.9 (22)	28.1 (76)	0.0 (63)
45. Miami (2-2)	7.4	32.3 (42)	25.3 (61)	0.3 (13)
46. Texas Tech (3-1)	7.1	32.5 (41)	25.4 (62)	-0.1 (76)
47. Illinois (3-1)	6.7	23.1 (97)	16.3 (10)	-0.2 (94)
48. WKU (3-1)	5.8	34.4 (30)	28.6 (78)	-0.1 (81)
49. Louisville (2-2)	5.7	32.2 (43)	26.7 (70)	0.2 (37)
50. Tulane (3-1)	5.3	29.7 (59)	24.2 (51)	-0.2 (97)
51. Coastal Caro. (4-0)	4.9	34.5 (29)	29.7 (86)	0.1 (57)
52. Kansas (4-0)	4.6	35.0 (26)	30.3 (89)	-0.1 (79)
53. App. St. (2-2)	4.5	33.5 (37)	28.7 (79)	-0.3 (106)
54. Air Force (3-1)	4.3	27.3 (71)	23.1 (43)	0.1 (44)
55. Wash. St. (3-1)	4.2	24.8 (84)	20.7 (30)	0.1 (49)
56. S. Carolina (2-2)	4.1	29.9 (58)	26.1 (67)	0.4 (9)
57. UAB (2-1)	3.8	26.2 (77)	22.1 (34)	-0.3 (111)
58. Missouri (2-2)	3.8	27.8 (67)	23.9 (48)	-0.2 (96)
59. Syracuse (4-0)	3.7	27.7 (69)	24.2 (49)	0.1 (54)
60. Houston (2-2)	3.3	34.7 (28)	31.8 (99)	0.3 (14)
61. ECU (2-2)	2.8	28.3 (65)	25.1 (60)	-0.3 (124)
62. Memphis (3-1)	2.7	33.4 (38)	30.9 (93)	0.3 (18)
63. California (3-1)	2.6	20.8 (106)	18.1 (18)	0.0 (69)
64. S. Alabama (3-1)	2.6	25.5 (80)	22.9 (40)	0.1 (59)
65. Arizona St. (1-3)	2.5	27.6 (70)	25.4 (63)	0.3 (19)
66. Marshall (2-2)	2.5	26.0 (78)	23.6 (45)	0.0 (62)
67. N. Carolina (3-1)	2.4	38.1 (10)	36.0 (113)	0.3 (10)
68. JMU (3-0)	1.7	26.5 (76)	24.6 (55)	-0.2 (88)
69. Nebraska (1-3)	1.4	31.9 (46)	30.2 (88)	-0.3 (121)
70. Fresno St. (1-2)	1.4	30.4 (55)	28.8 (80)	-0.2 (100)
71. UTSA (2-2)	1.2	35.3 (24)	34.0 (105)	-0.2 (92)
72. Toledo (2-2)	0.9	24.8 (85)	23.7 (47)	-0.1 (84)
73. Liberty (3-1)	0.8	26.6 (75)	25.5 (64)	-0.3 (105)
74. Tulsa (2-2)	0.5	31.6 (48)	31.1 (95)	0.0 (70)
75. Army (1-2)	0.3	30.9 (51)	30.9 (91)	0.2 (27)
76. Louisiana (2-2)	0.3	22.6 (100)	22.1 (36)	-0.2 (91)
77. Rutgers (3-1)	0.2	21.8 (103)	21.8 (32)	0.2 (42)
78. Boise St. (2-2)	-0.4	21.1 (105)	21.4 (31)	0.0 (72)
79. Va. Tech (2-2)	-1.0	18.0 (119)	19.2 (23)	0.2 (29)
80. Stanford (1-2)	-1.1	30.5 (54)	31.7 (97)	0.1 (56)
81. Virginia (2-2)	-1.3	26.7 (72)	27.8 (74)	-0.3 (107)
82. So. Miss (2-2)	-1.7	21.9 (102)	23.7 (46)	0.1 (51)
83. Indiana (3-1)	-1.7	25.7 (79)	27.6 (72)	0.2 (30)
84. Troy (2-2)	-1.8	20.6 (107)	22.4 (38)	0.0 (67)
85. Duke (3-1)	-3.7	27.8 (68)	31.6 (96)	0.1 (61)
86. Ga. Southern (3-1)	-4.4	26.7 (74)	30.9 (92)	-0.2 (90)
87. MTSU (3-1)	-4.4	24.2 (91)	28.5 (77)	-0.1 (85)
88. CMU (1-3)	-5.8	28.3 (64)	33.8 (104)	-0.3 (120)
89. FAU (2-3)	-5.8	24.3 (88)	30.1 (87)	0.0 (71)
90. San Diego St. (2-2)	-6.0	18.3 (118)	24.6 (56)	0.4 (6)
91. UNLV (3-1)	-6.0	23.1 (98)	29.3 (84)	0.2 (41)
92. ODU (2-2)	-6.6	22.9 (99)	29.2 (83)	-0.3 (115)
93. Boston Coll. (1-3)	-7.5	19.0 (113)	26.3 (68)	-0.3 (108)
94. NIU (1-3)	-7.8	30.0 (57)	37.8 (121)	-0.1 (83)
95. Georgia St. (0-4)	-8.6	24.4 (86)	33.2 (101)	0.3 (22)
96. Arizona (2-2)	-8.6	25.0 (82)	33.3 (102)	-0.3 (103)
97. N. Texas (2-3)	-8.6	28.5 (63)	37.3 (118)	0.1 (60)
98. Northwestern (1-3)	-9.0	19.4 (111)	28.0 (75)	-0.3 (123)
99. Vanderbilt (3-2)	-9.1	24.4 (87)	33.7 (103)	0.3 (17)
100. Miami-OH (2-2)	-9.1	20.4 (108)	29.4 (85)	-0.1 (75)
101. San Jose St. (2-1)	-9.2	15.5 (124)	24.5 (53)	-0.2 (95)
102. Kent St. (1-3)	-10.2	28.8 (62)	39.2 (125)	0.2 (31)
103. Ga. Tech (1-3)	-10.9	23.9 (94)	34.5 (107)	-0.3 (117)
104. Arkansas St. (1-3)	-11.1	25.2 (81)	36.7 (116)	0.4 (1)
105. EMU (2-2)	-11.4	27.9 (66)	39.5 (126)	0.2 (34)
106. UTEP (2-3)	-11.5	15.4 (125)	27.2 (71)	0.4 (7)
107. Wyoming (3-2)	-11.9	19.1 (112)	31.1 (94)	0.1 (47)
108. Utah St. (1-3)	-12.0	23.4 (96)	35.7 (111)	0.2 (28)
109. USF (1-3)	-12.2	24.3 (90)	36.5 (115)	0.1 (55)
110. Texas St. (2-2)	-12.2	18.5 (117)	30.7 (90)	-0.1 (82)
111. Temple (2-2)	-12.5	13.6 (127)	25.8 (65)	-0.3 (118)
112. Rice (2-2)	-12.8	21.3 (104)	34.2 (106)	0.2 (33)
113. Ball St. (1-3)	-12.9	18.8 (115)	31.8 (98)	0.1 (50)
114. Navy (1-2)	-13.0	15.9 (123)	29.1 (82)	0.2 (40)
115. Buffalo (1-3)	-13.3	24.2 (92)	37.5 (119)	0.0 (64)
116. La. Tech (1-3)	-14.6	24.0 (93)	38.4 (123)	-0.3 (114)
117. Colorado (0-4)	-15.6	20.3 (109)	36.1 (114)	0.2 (36)
118. ULM (2-2)	-15.6	19.5 (110)	34.8 (108)	-0.4 (131)
119. WMU (1-3)	-16.0	19.0 (114)	35.1 (109)	0.1 (58)
120. Ohio (2-2)	-16.6	24.3 (89)	40.9 (128)	-0.1 (78)
121. New Mexico (2-2)	-16.7	10.1 (131)	26.5 (69)	-0.3 (112)
122. Nevada (2-3)	-16.9	18.7 (116)	35.9 (112)	0.3 (16)
123. BGSU (1-3)	-17.0	23.7 (95)	40.3 (127)	-0.3 (126)
124. Charlotte (1-4)	-17.8	25.0 (83)	42.6 (129)	-0.2 (102)
125. Colorado St. (0-4)	-21.7	16.2 (121)	37.5 (120)	-0.4 (130)
126. NMSU (1-4)	-23.7	12.2 (129)	35.5 (110)	-0.4 (129)
127. UConn (1-4)	-23.9	14.2 (126)	38.2 (122)	0.0 (66)
128. Akron (1-3)	-24.4	12.8 (128)	36.9 (117)	-0.3 (122)
129. Hawaii (1-4)	-28.1	17.3 (120)	45.3 (130)	-0.2 (99)
130. UMass (1-3)	-28.2	10.8 (130)	38.6 (124)	-0.4 (128)
131. FIU (1-2)	-31.1	15.9 (122)	47.3 (131)	0.3 (24)

This week’s movers

After four weeks, nearly half the SP+ formula is based on actual performances instead of preseason projections. While that makes it rather impressive that so few teams have changed at the very top of the rankings, it does mean that lots of teams moved up and down significantly this week.

Moving up

Here are the 12 teams that moved up at least 11 spots after Week 4:

Kansas: up 29 spots from 81st to 52nd
Coastal Carolina: up 20 spots from 71st to 51st
South Alabama: up 19 spots from 83rd to 64th
West Virginia: up 18 spots from 58th to 40th
Georgia Southern: up 18 spots from 104th to 86th
Illinois: up 16 spots from 63rd to 47th
Western Kentucky: up 16 spots from 64th to 48th
Texas State: up 14 spots from 124th to 110th
California: up 12 spots from 75th to 63rd
Temple: up 12 spots from 123rd to 111th
Washington: up 11 spots from 35th to 24th
James Madison: up 11 spots from 79th to 68th

As you might glean from that list, the movement is a combination of both stellar Week 4 performances (hello, Coastal, WVU, WKU, Temple, and others) and the increased weight in 2022 performances to date (Kansas, Illinois, Cal, Washington). And if you were finding some gambling value in Kansas this season, that is probably about to come to an end. The books and metrics have adjusted.

Moving down

On the flipside, here are the 10 teams that moved down at least 12 spots:

Boise State: down 33 spots from 45th to 78th
North Carolina: down 23 spots from 44th to 67th
Virginia Tech: down 18 spots from 61st to 79th
Miami: down 18 spots from 27th to 45th
Arizona State: down 17 spots from 48th to 65th
Fresno State: down 15 spots from 55th to 70th
Wisconsin: down 14 spots from 15th to 29th
Wyoming: down 13 spots from 94th to 107th
Boston College: down 13 spots from 80th to 93rd
Vanderbilt: down 12 spots from 87th to 99th

After almost giving up more points to Notre Dame than the Fighting Irish’s first three opponents had combined, North Carolina has plummeted to 113th in defensive SP+, which is how you almost fall out of the overall top 70 with a top-10 offense.

Meanwhile, Boise State … yikes.

Conference rankings

1. SEC: 13.7 average SP+ (34.1 average offensive SP+, 20.6 average defensive SP+)
2. Big 12: 13.2 average (35.1 offense, 21.9 defense)
3. Big Ten: 10.6 average (31.1 offense, 20.4 defense)
4. Pac-12: 5.8 average (30.4 offense, 24.6 defense)
5. ACC: 4.0 average (30.3 offense, 26.2 defense)
6. AAC: 1.0 average (28.5 offense, 27.5 defense)
7. Sun Belt: -3.2 average (24.9 offense, 28.1 defense)
8. Conference USA: -8.7 average (25.0 offense, 33.7 defense)
9. Mountain West: -10.3 average (20.1 offense, 30.3 defense)
10. MAC: -12.0 average (23.6 offense, 35.5 defense)

Nine of the Big 12’s 10 teams have risen in the rankings since the start of the season. Kansas has risen by 51 spots, and five other teams have risen by double digits. The SEC is doing fine overall — seven of the top 17 teams, only one outside the top 60 — but its averages are sliding a bit because of drops from teams like Texas A&M, and the Big 12 has damn near reeled it in for the top spot.

Meanwhile, as mentioned above, the Pac-12 has jumped the ACC into fourth place overall. The top three conferences still have some distance on everyone else, but it has been a lovely bounceback year to date out west.

Read original article here

This week’s movers

Conference rankings

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