I went 5-6 last week against the spread, dropping me to three games under .500 against the line for the season. The good: nailing my upset special with Liberty handling BYU. The bad: picking Toledo to beat Buffalo by double digits. The ugly: picking Iowa to keep it sort of close against Ohio State.
(All point spreads come from BetMGM, click here for live odds, all kickoff times Eastern.)
Notre Dame at No. 16 Syracuse (-2.5), Noon, ABC
The Orange offense has sputtered for most of the past month, going over 400 yards only once, against FCS Wagner. The defense, though, has been outstanding, and should be able to handle a very inconsistent Notre Dame attack.
Syracuse 23, Notre Dame 17
Pick: Syracuse 2.5
No. 2 Ohio State (-15.5) at No. 13 Penn State, Noon, Fox
This is the first big test for the Buckeyes, who have a ton of firepower. I think the Nittany Lions respond after getting embarrassed in the trenches on both sides of the ball at Michigan, but ultimately Ohio State’s edge at quarterback will be the difference in the second half.
Ohio State 38, Penn State 27
Pick: Penn State +15.5
No. 7 TCU (-7.5) at West Virginia, Noon, ESPN
The Mountaineers defense, especially against the pass, has been savaged this month. Now it faces a faster team than it’s seen before and with a hotter quarterback. Uh-oh.
TCU 40, West Virginia 24
Pick: TCU -7.5
No. 20 Cincinnati at UCF (-1), 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Both defenses are really good, but the Bearcats’ is better and has been more consistent.
Cincinnati 28, UCF 24
Pick: Cincinnati +1
No. 1 Georgia (-22.5) vs. Florida, 3:30 p.m., CBS
It feels like it’s time for the Bulldogs to flex their muscle again. I think Kirby Smart will have them primed to slow down dual-threat quarterback Anthony Richardson and a Gators run game that has come alive since losing at Tennessee last month.
Georgia 42, Florida 21
Pick: Florida +22.5
No. 9 Oklahoma State at No. 22 Kansas State (-1.5), 3:30 p.m., Fox
Mike Gundy’s team gives up a ton of yards but the offense has been so good, it’s been able to overcome the defensive woes. I think it will again.
Oklahoma State 35, Kansas State 31
Pick: Oklahoma State +1.5
No. 19 Kentucky at No. 3 Tennessee (-12.5), 7 p.m., ESPN
I like Will Levis’ playmaking ability and Chris Rodriguez has really heated up since returning, but I just can’t pick against the Vols at home right now.
Tennessee 44, Kentucky 31
Pick: Tennessee -12.5
Even when Michigan has won in this heated rivalry in recent years, MSU has managed to keep it relatively tight and prevent the Wolverines from covering. But my sense is this Michigan team is different from ones in the past and will keep its foot on the gas.
Michigan 45, Michigan State 17
Pick: Michigan -22.5
No. 15 Ole Miss (-2.5) at Texas A&M, 7:30 p.m., SEC Network
Lane Kiffin will face his old defensive coordinator DJ Durkin and the Aggies should have some answers, but I don’t see them being able to wake up what has been a dreadful offense against the SEC’s top pass rush.
Ole Miss 28, Texas A&M 20
Pick: Ole Miss -2.5
Pitt at No. 21 North Carolina (-3), 8 p.m., ACC Network
The Tar Heels return home after two road trips to face a Pitt team that lost by two touchdowns at Louisville. Go with UNC. Drake Maye has a 13-0 TD-INT ratio in games at Chapel Hill.
UNC 31, Pitt 20
Pick: North Carolina -3
Upset special: Illinois (-7.5) at Nebraska, 3:30 p.m., ABC
The Huskers have played really hard for Mickey Joseph and I think they’re overdue for a big upset win, although I almost talked myself out of this one considering that Nebraska’s defense was on the field for 101 plays last week and the Illini’s was only out there for 42.
Nebraska 17, Illinois 16
Pick: Nebraska +7.5
(Top photo: Dale Zanine / USA Today)