It’s been 21 years since Tennessee finished in the AP top five. It had almost been that long since the Vols had beaten Alabama, too, but Saturday’s thrilling 52-49 win in Knoxville is allowing UT fans to dream big again. The advanced stats, meanwhile, are backing up the dreams.
In this week’s SP+ rankings, the Vols jumped to fifth. If they finish there, it would be their best ranking since 1999. This being a predictive ranking and not a measure of résumés, they are still behind Bama overall (though the gap is closing quickly). But considering they are now given at least 71% win probability in five of their final six regular-season games, the odds of a huge season — first 10-win season since 2007? first 11-win season since 2001? first 12-win season since 1998? — are only increasing.
Below are this week’s SP+ rankings. What is SP+? In a single sentence, it’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.
SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.
This week’s movers
Let’s take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings. (Note: We’re looking at ratings, not rankings.)
Moving up
Here are the 10 teams whose ratings rose the most this week:
Hawai’i: up 4.9 adjusted points per game (ranking rose from 131st to 127th)
Syracuse: up 4.3 (from 57th to 38th)
Old Dominion: up 3.9 (from 90th to 85th)
South Alabama: up 3.5 (from 66th to 50th)
UCF: up 3.2 (from 38th to 25th)
New Mexico State: up 3.2 (from 127th to 125th)
Arizona: up 3.1 (from 96th to 88th)
TCU: up 3.0 (from 23rd to 13th)
Charlotte: up 2.6 (from 125th to 122nd)
Bowling Green: up 2.6 (from 124th to 121st)
Moving down
Here are the 10 teams whose ratings fell the most:
Notre Dame: down 4.9 points (ranking fell from 27th to 43rd)
BYU: down 4.4 (from 52nd to 70th)
NC State: down 3.4 (from 32nd to 41st)
Alabama: down 3.1 (from second to third)
UConn: down 3.1 (from 122nd to 126th)
Coastal Carolina: down 3.0 (from 46th to 61st)
Liberty: down 2.8 (from 72nd to 82nd)
Mississippi State: down 2.7 (from 12th to 20th)
Texas: down 2.5 (from fifth to sixth)
Colorado State: down 2.5 (from 126th to 128th)
Conference rankings
Here are FBS’ 10 conferences, ranked by average SP+:
1. SEC: 13.1 average SP+ (34.4 average offensive SP+, 21.4 average defensive SP+) 2. Big 12: 11.9 average SP+ (35.4 offense, 23.5 defense) 3. Big Ten: 9.8 average SP+ (30.0 offense, 20.3 defense) 4. Pac-12: 5.7 average SP+ (32.4 offense, 26.8 defense) 5. ACC: 3.7 average SP+ (29.5 offense, 25.8 defense) 6. AAC: 1.1 average SP+ (29.0 offense, 27.8 defense) 7. Sun Belt: 0.2 average SP+ (27.3 offense, 27.1 defense) 8. Conference USA: -10.7 average SP+ (24.4 offense, 35.1 defense) 9. Mountain West: -14.0 average SP+ (17.0 offense, 31.0 defense) 10. MAC: -14.5 average SP+ (21.5 offense, 35.9 defense)
We have long taken to referring to these 10 conferences as the Power Five and Group of Five, but with those averages, I think we need a new set of tiers for this season: Power Three, Middle Four and Faraway Three. The Sun Belt currently ranks seventh, but its average is almost as close to second place as eighth. And of the 32 teams ranked 100th or worse at the moment, 26 reside in one of the bottom three conferences. (Three others are independents.)
Meanwhile, 17 of the top 25 teams are from either the SEC, Big 12 or Big Ten, and another four are from the Pac-12. So maybe it’s Power Four and Middle Three?
Résumé SP+
Since the College Football Playoff rankings are on the horizon, I’m also including Résumé SP+ rankings in this piece each week.
As mentioned above, SP+ is intended to be a power rating, not a resume evaluation tool, but Résumé SP+ attempts to fill that latter gap. It is a look at two things: (1) how the average SP+ top five team would be projected to perform against your schedule (in terms of scoring margin) and (2) how your scoring margin compares to (1). Throw in a seven-point penalty for every loss a team has suffered, and you can say that this is what the CFP rankings would look like if SP+ were in charge.
(Note: Because of the high bar teams have to clear in getting compared to an average top-five team, and because of the loss adjustment, almost every team here ends up with a negative score. It is what it is.)