Tag Archives: Michigan State Spartans

Ranking 131 college football teams after Week 12: TCU keeps proving it belongs

There has been a general sense around the College Football Playoff conversation that TCU is lucky to be there and that one loss will knock the Horned Frogs out. But that shouldn’t be the case.

No doubt, TCU has needed a number of second-half comebacks to win, none more notable than the fire drill game-winning field goal to beat Baylor on Saturday. But this goes back further. Last week, ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith dismissed the Frogs and said they hadn’t played anyone and that “competition matters.” He read off the schedule and said it isn’t deserving of a top-four ranking, even if undefeated.

It got a lot of reaction, because that’s the point, after all. But Smith was not alone. Paul Finebaum, in the same segment, agreed and downplayed the quality of the Big 12.

What Smith, Finebaum and others missed is that the Big 12 is the deepest conference in the country. Eight of 10 teams are bowl-eligible. There are no pushovers, and the nine conference games are more than the SEC or ACC. Among the CFP top four, TCU has the strongest strength of schedule in multiple ratings, including ESPN’s FPI and Sagarin. The Horned Frogs are No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of record, which evaluates the chances the average top-25 team would have that same record against the same schedule.

An undefeated TCU will make the CFP. We know that. The conversation we should be having is whether or not a one-loss TCU should get in.

All of that said, the place where you can ding the Frogs is they lack a true marquee win. Georgia beat Oregon and Tennessee. Ohio State and Michigan beat Penn State. Every team TCU has defeated has at least three losses. That’s in part due to the depth of the conference. But if you want to prove you can beat a top-tier team, TCU hasn’t done that and won’t have a chance to. (Michigan and Ohio State will try to prove it against each other.) That ultimately could be what keeps TCU out if it doesn’t win the next two games.

But what you can’t say is that TCU hasn’t played anyone. You can’t say it hasn’t deserved these victories. After a weekend in which Georgia, Ohio State and Michigan all struggled against far inferior opponents, maybe pulling out a late November comeback at Baylor proved the Horned Frogs do belong.

Here is this week’s edition of The Athletic 131.

1-10

Rank Team Record Prev

1

11-0

1

2

11-0

2

3

11-0

3

4

11-0

4

5

10-1

7

6

9-2

6

7

10-1

9

8

9-2

5

9

9-2

8

10

9-2

11

There is no change in the top four, and the moment of truth is here. After Michigan escaped Illinois, I thought I would finally put Ohio State ahead. Then the Buckeyes had to escape against Maryland. Every argument you can make about these two teams has its points. Ohio State has a better second win (Notre Dame), while Michigan didn’t play anyone in nonconference. Michigan flattened Penn State, while Ohio State needed a fourth-quarter comeback. Ohio State’s struggles in certain conditions make me think this could be a replay of last year, when Michigan’s toughness in the trenches won out. But now Wolverines running back Blake Corum may be hurt, and quarterback J.J. McCarthy has not been very good. I’m not sure if Michigan can win a big game with his arm.

I still lean toward Michigan slightly, but now it will finally be settled on the field and we can move on to arguing if the loser should be in the CFP.


Michigan held onto an undefeated record before the Ohio State game. (Rick Osentoski / USA Today)

USC finally got a marquee win, beating UCLA 48-45, which moves the Trojans ahead of LSU. The Tigers do have wins against Alabama and Ole Miss and the schedule is tougher. But USC doesn’t have a lopsided loss, and the Oregon State win on the road is valuable. Either way, both of these teams still control their destiny for the CFP, I believe.

Clemson jumps up to No. 7 due to Tennessee’s lopsided loss to South Carolina. The loss to Notre Dame still holds Clemson down, but the Florida State win has gotten better with time.

Tennessee’s 63-38 loss to South Carolina makes the Vols a very difficult team to place. They’re out of the CFP race, but wins against LSU and Alabama keep them from dropping further. The only other change is Washington moving into the top 10 after Utah’s loss to Oregon.

11-25

Penn State is an odd team to judge as well. The 9-2 Nittany Lions have seven blowout wins, but they’re against relatively weak competition. None of the wins stand out. They got manhandled at Michigan but played Ohio State tough. Oregon stays ahead of Penn State because it has two marquee wins against Utah and UCLA. Notre Dame continues to inch up and up, and Clemson’s move back up makes that Irish win even better. The Irish also moved ahead of Florida State because of the Clemson results between them.

The Group of 5’s New Year’s Six spot is still likely to go to the American Athletic Conference champ, but it’s about time Coastal Carolina, UTSA and Troy are recognized for the seasons they’re having as well.

26-50

Illinois stays put after the narrow loss at Michigan because of the effort and because of other results around the country. UCF drops out of the top 25 after a loss to Navy but remains ahead of Cincinnati because of the head-to-head. That could change when Cincinnati and Tulane meet this week. Iowa is back, controlling its destiny in the Big Ten West after beating Minnesota. Kirk Ferentz keeps doing just enough.

South Carolina is another tough team to place. The blowout win against Tennessee is one of the most impressive of the season, but the Gamecocks also got trounced by Florida last week and lost to Arkansas earlier in the season. The Razorbacks stay behind Liberty because of the head-to-head loss.

Oklahoma moves ahead of Oklahoma State after Saturday’s 28-13 Bedlam win. Boise State’s win at Wyoming clinched the Mountain West’s Mountain division and home field in the league championship game. The Broncos are 6-1 since a 2-2 start, when they fired their offensive coordinator and QB Hank Bachmeier entered the transfer portal. They’ve figured things out, but losses to UTEP and BYU still keep them behind other Group of 5 teams.

51-75

Wisconsin sneaked into bowl eligibility for the 21st consecutive season with a 15-14 comeback win against Nebraska. It hasn’t been pretty, but it looks like Jim Leonhard will probably get the full-time job. Houston demolished East Carolina 42-3 and continues to be one of the most inconsistent teams in the country. James Madison is 7-3 in its first FBS season, but it is not eligible for the postseason as a transitioning FCS team. However, the Dukes can still win a share of the Sun Belt East if they beat Coastal Carolina this week.

Iowa State lost 14-10 to Texas Tech and will miss a bowl game. The Cyclones are 3-11 in one-possession games over the past two seasons. SMU has allowed 145 points over the past three games, including 59 in Thursday’s loss to Tulane. Wyoming’s narrow loss to Boise State doesn’t drop the Cowboys far. Appalachian State and Georgia Southern will play for bowl eligibility in their rivalry game next week, as App State is not yet eligible because it has two FCS wins. Texas A&M got past UMass in another uninspiring performance. How about Vanderbilt? The Commodores have defeated Kentucky and Florida in consecutive weeks.

Fresno State turned around its season in a big way and clinched the Mountain West’s West division with a 41-14 win against Nevada, its sixth consecutive win. San Diego State has won five of six (the loss coming to Fresno State) and quarterback Jalen Mayden has given that offense a boost for the first time in a long time.

76-100

Miami had nine yards at halftime against Clemson and lost 40-10. The Canes must beat Pitt to get to a bowl game. Georgia Tech beat North Carolina 21-17, and Brent Key is 4-3 as interim head coach with two Top 25 wins. Ohio’s bounce-back continued with a 32-18 win against Ball State, and the Bobcats are one win away from winning the MAC East, but the status of injured quarterback Kurtis Rourke is key.

Cal beat rival Stanford 27-20. UConn lost to Army 34-17 and must wait and hope for a bowl selection. FAU lost 49-21 to Middle Tennessee with bowl eligibility on the line and must beat WKU next week. Rice (at North Texas) and UTEP (at UTSA) also need upsets next week to get to bowl games and perhaps save their coaches’ jobs. Indiana beat Michigan State 39-31 in double overtime despite being heavily outgained and completing just two passes. Virginia Tech ended its long losing streak with a 23-22 win at Liberty. UNLV began the season 4-1 but has lost six consecutive games after a 31-25 loss at Hawaii, ending its bowl hopes.

101-131

Bowling Green got bowl-eligible with a last-second touchdown at Toledo in the snow in a wild finish. The Falcons are still in the mix for the MAC East title if they can beat Ohio. Buffalo’s game against Akron was snowed out and could impact that MAC East tiebreaker. Navy beat UCF and Army beat UConn, and both did so without completing a pass. Neither academy will have a bowl game or the Commander-In-Chief’s trophy to compete for (because Army has two FCS wins and Air Force clinched the CIC), but that rivalry game is always special. The middle of the MAC continues to have a lot of parity. UMass fought valiantly against Texas A&M and covered the spread in a 20-3 loss, but it’s not enough to move out of the bottom spot.

(Top photo:  Tom Pennington / Getty Images)



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Jim Harbaugh on MSU tunnel altercation: ‘An apology will not get the job done’

Michigan football coach Jim Harbaugh said Monday that “an apology will not get the job done” and that he expects criminal charges to be filed following Saturday’s postgame altercations with Michigan State.

After the Wolverines’ 29-7 win, Harbaugh said two of his players were “assaulted” in the tunnel at Michigan Stadium following the game. One of the Michigan players was defensive back Ja’Den McBurrows, a source previously confirmed to The Athletic, and Harbaugh confirmed Monday that the other was defensive back Gemon Green.

“I’m coming (at) this from the perspective of being a parent. These young men are entrusted by their families to our program and we have a responsibility to each player to treat them like our own, and I take that responsibility very seriously,” Harbaugh said at a news conference Monday. “An apology will not get the job done in this instance.”

“I can’t imagine this will not result in criminal charges,” Harbaugh said, describing videos of the incident — which were widely shared on social media — as “sickening.” He noted that ABC’s tunnel camera captured additional angles of what happened.

Four Michigan State players — Tank Brown, Khary Crump, Angelo Grose, and Zion Young — were suspended in the wake of the altercation, the school announced Sunday.

“The behavior we reviewed was both uncharacteristic of our football program and unacceptable,” MSU athletic director Alan Haller said in a statement Sunday.

“On behalf of our university and athletics department, I have been in consistent contact with University of Michigan athletics director Warde Manuel and Big Ten Conference commissioner Kevin Warren in addition to members of our Spartan family to offer our apologies and to ensure our collaboration with law enforcement as they conduct investigations into this matter.”

GO DEEPER

Fortuna: Michigan State embarrasses itself on a night that will have lasting effects

University of Michigan Police said Saturday they were reviewing the footage of the incident. Harbaugh said he has not spoken with Michigan State coach Mel Tucker since the game.

“I don’t buy any excuse that’s going to be laid off on the rivalry or the tunnel or any other thing that somebody could possibly blame,” Harbaugh added. “These are the actions of these individuals and they need to be accountable for them.”

In a news conference shortly after Harbaugh’s, Tucker said the player suspensions will remain in place until conference and law enforcement investigations are complete. He declined to comment on Harbaugh’s expectation of criminal charges.

GO DEEPER

Meek: Michigan State-Michigan postgame incident demands a rivalry reset

(Photo: Rick Osentoski / USA Today)



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College football picks against the spread: Bruce Feldman’s Week 9 picks

I went 5-6 last week against the spread, dropping me to three games under .500 against the line for the season. The good: nailing my upset special with Liberty handling BYU. The bad: picking Toledo to beat Buffalo by double digits. The ugly: picking Iowa to keep it sort of close against Ohio State.

(All point spreads come from BetMGM, click here for live odds, all kickoff times Eastern.)

Notre Dame at No. 16 Syracuse (-2.5), Noon, ABC

The Orange offense has sputtered for most of the past month, going over 400 yards only once, against FCS Wagner. The defense, though, has been outstanding, and should be able to handle a very inconsistent Notre Dame attack.

Syracuse 23, Notre Dame 17
Pick: Syracuse 2.5

No. 2 Ohio State (-15.5) at No. 13 Penn State, Noon, Fox

This is the first big test for the Buckeyes, who have a ton of firepower. I think the Nittany Lions respond after getting embarrassed in the trenches on both sides of the ball at Michigan, but ultimately Ohio State’s edge at quarterback will be the difference in the second half.

Ohio State 38, Penn State 27
Pick: Penn State +15.5

No. 7 TCU (-7.5) at West Virginia, Noon, ESPN

The Mountaineers defense, especially against the pass, has been savaged this month. Now it faces a faster team than it’s seen before and with a hotter quarterback. Uh-oh.

TCU 40, West Virginia 24
Pick: TCU -7.5

No. 20 Cincinnati at UCF (-1), 3:30 p.m., ESPN

Both defenses are really good, but the Bearcats’ is better and has been more consistent.

Cincinnati 28, UCF 24
Pick: Cincinnati +1

No. 1 Georgia (-22.5) vs. Florida, 3:30 p.m., CBS

It feels like it’s time for the Bulldogs to flex their muscle again. I think Kirby Smart will have them primed to slow down dual-threat quarterback Anthony Richardson and a Gators run game that has come alive since losing at Tennessee last month.

Georgia 42, Florida 21
Pick: Florida +22.5

No. 9 Oklahoma State at No. 22 Kansas State (-1.5), 3:30 p.m., Fox

Mike Gundy’s team gives up a ton of yards but the offense has been so good, it’s been able to overcome the defensive woes. I think it will again.

Oklahoma State 35, Kansas State 31
Pick: Oklahoma State +1.5

No. 19 Kentucky at No. 3 Tennessee (-12.5), 7 p.m., ESPN

I like Will Levis’ playmaking ability and Chris Rodriguez has really heated up since returning, but I just can’t pick against the Vols at home right now.

Tennessee 44, Kentucky 31
Pick: Tennessee -12.5

Even when Michigan has won in this heated rivalry in recent years, MSU has managed to keep it relatively tight and prevent the Wolverines from covering. But my sense is this Michigan team is different from ones in the past and will keep its foot on the gas.

Michigan 45, Michigan State 17
Pick: Michigan -22.5

No. 15 Ole Miss (-2.5) at Texas A&M, 7:30 p.m., SEC Network

Lane Kiffin will face his old defensive coordinator DJ Durkin and the Aggies should have some answers, but I don’t see them being able to wake up what has been a dreadful offense against the SEC’s top pass rush.

Ole Miss 28, Texas A&M 20
Pick: Ole Miss -2.5

Pitt at No. 21 North Carolina (-3), 8 p.m., ACC Network

The Tar Heels return home after two road trips to face a Pitt team that lost by two touchdowns at Louisville. Go with UNC. Drake Maye has a 13-0 TD-INT ratio in games at Chapel Hill.

UNC 31, Pitt 20
Pick: North Carolina -3

Upset special: Illinois (-7.5) at Nebraska, 3:30 p.m., ABC

The Huskers have played really hard for Mickey Joseph and I think they’re overdue for a big upset win, although I almost talked myself out of this one considering that Nebraska’s defense was on the field for 101 plays last week and the Illini’s was only out there for 42.

Nebraska 17, Illinois 16
Pick: Nebraska +7.5

(Top photo: Dale Zanine / USA Today)



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College football picks against the spread: Stewart Mandel’s Week 9 picks

Last week was not my finest hour. Did I really pick Iowa to cover against Ohio State?

I feel much more confident this week. Really. I do.

Last week: 5-6 against the spread

Season: 44-43-1 against the spread

(All point spreads come from BetMGM, click here for live odds, all kickoff times Eastern.)

Syracuse lost a heartbreaker at Clemson but gained a lot of respect nonetheless. QB Garrett Shrader is a gamer, and the defense got after Tigers QB DJ Uiagalelei. Clemson ultimately gashed the Orange on the ground. Notre Dame aspires to have that kind of rushing attack but it has been inconsistent for much of the season.

Syracuse 27, Notre Dame 20
Pick: Syracuse -2.5

No. 2 Ohio State (-15.5) at No. 13 Penn State, Noon, Fox

Penn State’s secondary, led by CB Joey Porter Jr., has helped Penn State rank No. 5 nationally in pass efficiency defense and gives the Nittany Lions hope of at least slowing down Buckeyes star C.J. Stroud and his receivers. It’s just hard to imagine Sean Clifford and Penn State’s offense will be able to keep up for four quarters.

Ohio State 35, Penn State 24
Pick: Penn State +15.5

No. 7 TCU (-7.5) at West Virginia, Noon, ESPN

TCU is going to lose at some point, and a trip to Morgantown on the heels of facing four straight Top 25 opponents has all the makings of a trap. But Max Duggan and the Horned Frogs love to take shots, and West Virginia’s defense largely fails to stop them. The Mountaineers rank 108th nationally in 20+ yard plays allowed (39).

TCU 38, West Virginia 28
Pick: TCU -7.5

No. 20 Cincinnati at UCF (-1), 3:30 p.m., ESPN

UCF has been all over the map this season. In their last two games, the Knights put up 70 points on Temple, then got blown out 34-13 at East Carolina. QB John Rhys Plumlee threw three picks and was sacked four times by the Pirates. Luke Fickell’s defense, led by LB Ivan Pace Jr., will come after him.

Cincinnati 21, UCF 16
Pick: Cincinnati +1

No. 1 Georgia (-22.5) vs. Florida, 3:30 p.m., CBS

Florida QB Anthony Richardson had a miserable first career start against the Dawgs last season. He’s going to need to ball out for the Gators to have any chance in this one. Florida’s defense is just horrendous (105th nationally), and Georgia’s offense is particularly problematic thanks to matchup nightmares like TE Brock Bowers.

Georgia 44, Florida 20
Pick: Georgia -22.5

It’s Oklahoma State’s third straight game against a ranked opponent, and the first two — a 43-40 overtime loss to TCU and a 41-34 comeback win over Texas — were both nailbiters. While QB Adrian Martinez’s uncertain status makes it difficult to handicap K-State, it seems like the Wildcats could catch the Cowboys when they’re a tad worn out.

Kansas State 33, Oklahoma State 30
Pick: Kansas State -1.5

No. 19 Kentucky at No. 3 Tennessee (-12.5), 7 p.m., ESPN

Kentucky QB Will Levis is the more highly regarded NFL draft prospect, yet I have considerably more confidence in Vols star Hendon Hooker. Levis effectively spelled out at a news conference that the Wildcats’ plan is to string out long drives to keep the ball away from Tennessee’s offense, but the Vols score so quickly I’m not sure that matters.

Tennessee 41, Kentucky 27
Pick: Tennessee -12.5

Mel Tucker is 2-0 against Michigan, and the Spartans have won 10 of the last 14 editions of this rivalry — which seems like a setup for the Wolverines to take out a whole lot of frustration in this one. State’s offense is a shell of last year’s Kenneth Walker III-led version and its defense is 105th nationally. Whereas Michigan is good at everything.

Michigan 42, Michigan State 14
Pick: Michigan -22.5

No. 15 Ole Miss (-2.5) at Texas A&M, 7:30 p.m., SEC Network

This line is just begging us to take the 3-4 Aggies at home, and you know Jimbo wants this one badly after some of Lane Kiffin’s potshots. But I’ve watched too much of that dreadful offense and I can’t unsee it. The Aggies don’t have a dynamic quarterback like LSU’s Jayden Daniels, who exposed the flaws of Ole Miss’ previously untested offense.

Ole Miss 24, Texas A&M 20
Pick: Ole Miss -2.5

Pitt at No. 21 North Carolina (-3), 8 p.m., ACC Network

I’ve been saying for weeks that UNC is not as good as its record (6-1) and ranking. Vegas seems to agree with me given the Tar Heels are only three-point home favorites over a 4-3 Pitt team with losses to Georgia Tech and Louisville. But Panthers QB Kedon Slovis has not looked capable of exploiting UNC’s biggest weakness, its pass defense.

North Carolina 34, Pitt 27
Pick: North Carolina -3

Upset Special: UAB (-5.5) at FAU, 7 p.m., CBS Sports Network

I don’t have any Xs and Os insight on this one. I just saw that FAU is advertising this game as “The Biggest Halloween Party in Boca Raton,” and that sounds like a scary place to be if you’re 5.5-point favorite UAB.

FAU 26, UAB 20
Pick: FAU +5.5

(Photo: Rick Osentoski / USA Today)



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College football SP+ rankings after Week 7

It’s been 21 years since Tennessee finished in the AP top five. It had almost been that long since the Vols had beaten Alabama, too, but Saturday’s thrilling 52-49 win in Knoxville is allowing UT fans to dream big again. The advanced stats, meanwhile, are backing up the dreams.

In this week’s SP+ rankings, the Vols jumped to fifth. If they finish there, it would be their best ranking since 1999. This being a predictive ranking and not a measure of résumés, they are still behind Bama overall (though the gap is closing quickly). But considering they are now given at least 71% win probability in five of their final six regular-season games, the odds of a huge season — first 10-win season since 2007? first 11-win season since 2001? first 12-win season since 1998? — are only increasing.

Below are this week’s SP+ rankings. What is SP+? In a single sentence, it’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.

SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.

This week’s movers

Let’s take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings. (Note: We’re looking at ratings, not rankings.)

Moving up

Here are the 10 teams whose ratings rose the most this week:

  • Hawai’i: up 4.9 adjusted points per game (ranking rose from 131st to 127th)

  • Syracuse: up 4.3 (from 57th to 38th)

  • Old Dominion: up 3.9 (from 90th to 85th)

  • South Alabama: up 3.5 (from 66th to 50th)

  • UCF: up 3.2 (from 38th to 25th)

  • New Mexico State: up 3.2 (from 127th to 125th)

  • Arizona: up 3.1 (from 96th to 88th)

  • TCU: up 3.0 (from 23rd to 13th)

  • Charlotte: up 2.6 (from 125th to 122nd)

  • Bowling Green: up 2.6 (from 124th to 121st)

Moving down

Here are the 10 teams whose ratings fell the most:

  • Notre Dame: down 4.9 points (ranking fell from 27th to 43rd)

  • BYU: down 4.4 (from 52nd to 70th)

  • NC State: down 3.4 (from 32nd to 41st)

  • Alabama: down 3.1 (from second to third)

  • UConn: down 3.1 (from 122nd to 126th)

  • Coastal Carolina: down 3.0 (from 46th to 61st)

  • Liberty: down 2.8 (from 72nd to 82nd)

  • Mississippi State: down 2.7 (from 12th to 20th)

  • Texas: down 2.5 (from fifth to sixth)

  • Colorado State: down 2.5 (from 126th to 128th)


Conference rankings

Here are FBS’ 10 conferences, ranked by average SP+:

1. SEC: 13.1 average SP+ (34.4 average offensive SP+, 21.4 average defensive SP+)
2. Big 12: 11.9 average SP+ (35.4 offense, 23.5 defense)
3. Big Ten: 9.8 average SP+ (30.0 offense, 20.3 defense)
4. Pac-12: 5.7 average SP+ (32.4 offense, 26.8 defense)
5. ACC: 3.7 average SP+ (29.5 offense, 25.8 defense)
6. AAC: 1.1 average SP+ (29.0 offense, 27.8 defense)
7. Sun Belt: 0.2 average SP+ (27.3 offense, 27.1 defense)
8. Conference USA: -10.7 average SP+ (24.4 offense, 35.1 defense)
9. Mountain West: -14.0 average SP+ (17.0 offense, 31.0 defense)
10. MAC: -14.5 average SP+ (21.5 offense, 35.9 defense)

We have long taken to referring to these 10 conferences as the Power Five and Group of Five, but with those averages, I think we need a new set of tiers for this season: Power Three, Middle Four and Faraway Three. The Sun Belt currently ranks seventh, but its average is almost as close to second place as eighth. And of the 32 teams ranked 100th or worse at the moment, 26 reside in one of the bottom three conferences. (Three others are independents.)

Meanwhile, 17 of the top 25 teams are from either the SEC, Big 12 or Big Ten, and another four are from the Pac-12. So maybe it’s Power Four and Middle Three?

Résumé SP+

Since the College Football Playoff rankings are on the horizon, I’m also including Résumé SP+ rankings in this piece each week.

As mentioned above, SP+ is intended to be a power rating, not a resume evaluation tool, but Résumé SP+ attempts to fill that latter gap. It is a look at two things: (1) how the average SP+ top five team would be projected to perform against your schedule (in terms of scoring margin) and (2) how your scoring margin compares to (1). Throw in a seven-point penalty for every loss a team has suffered, and you can say that this is what the CFP rankings would look like if SP+ were in charge.

(Note: Because of the high bar teams have to clear in getting compared to an average top-five team, and because of the loss adjustment, almost every team here ends up with a negative score. It is what it is.)

Here is your Résumé SP+ top 15 after seven weeks:

1. Ohio State (6-0): +8.5 PPG
2. Georgia (7-0): +8.3
3. Tennessee (6-0): +0.0
4. Michigan (7-0): -2.0
5. Ole Miss (7-0): -2.9
6. Alabama (6-1): -3.5
7. TCU (6-0): -6.3
8. Clemson (7-0): -8.8
9. Syracuse (6-0): -9.4
10. UCLA (6-0): -11.7
11. UCF (5-1): -13.1
12. USC (6-1): -13.9
13. Texas (5-2): -15.0
14. Illinois (6-1): -16.1
15. Oklahoma State (5-1): -16.4

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Mandel’s Final Thoughts: Could Tide be vulnerable vs. Vols? Plus Sooner madness, L.A. greatness

And now, 23 Final Thoughts from a Saturday that began at 11 a.m. Dallas time in front of 90,000 at the Cotton Bowl and ended at 11:30 p.m. Palo Alto time in front of a few thousand half-awake fans at Stanford Stadium who unwittingly (and unfortunately for them) saw the most incredible ending of the whole darn day.

1. CBS has apparently hired a psychic to run its programming department. Two years in a row, they’ve used their one prime-time pick of the season to air an Alabama-Texas A&M matchup. Both years, the Tide were massive favorites. Both years, it came down to the final play. The Aggies won on a walk-off field goal in 2021. The Tide survived on an A&M incompletion in 2022.

And now, those CBS suits are about to be big winners again. Next week, they get the biggest Alabama-Tennessee game since Nick Saban was still coaching the Dolphins.

2. Fans under the age of around 25 might not even realize that the Tide and Vols are traditional rivals, mainly because Saban’s program has won the past 15 meetings and generally fought in a different weight class than the long-dormant Vols. But lo and behold, these two will meet in Knoxville next week both with undefeated records and top-8 rankings, and for once, Alabama may be the more vulnerable team.

Especially if Heisman winner Bryce Young can’t play.

3. Alabama’s 24-20 escape against ostensibly overmatched A&M (3-3, 1-2 SEC) was a weird, weird game.



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College football SP+ rankings after Week 4

In Week 4 of the 2022 college football season, the teams that hadn’t yet looked vulnerable finally did so (except Minnesota, anyway). Georgia dilly-dallied for long periods in its win over Kent State, Michigan had to lean heavily on Blake Corum to stay ahead ahead of Maryland, USC needed all of 60 minutes to fend off Oregon State, and in the end, 12 of the remaining 33 unbeaten FBS teams lost, five as favorites.

Now that the ground has settled and all of the top teams (except Minnesota) have had at least one close call, the SP+ ratings look … about as they did before the season. Alabama’s back on top, Ohio State and Georgia are nearly tied for second, and of the teams in the current SP+ top 10, nine were projected 13th or higher in the preseason. (The exception? You guessed it: Minnesota!)

That’s not to say nothing has changed, however. The Big 12’s brilliant early showing has given it five teams in the top 23 and eight in the top 40 (and has prevented Oklahoma from falling after Saturday night’s loss to Kansas State). Out west, the Pac-12 has shown all sorts of life, jumping the ACC in the averages and landing five teams in the top 25. Beneath the surface, there is plenty of change afoot.

What is SP+? In a single sentence, it’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.

SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.

This week’s movers

After four weeks, nearly half the SP+ formula is based on actual performances instead of preseason projections. While that makes it rather impressive that so few teams have changed at the very top of the rankings, it does mean that lots of teams moved up and down significantly this week.

Moving up

Here are the 12 teams that moved up at least 11 spots after Week 4:

  • Kansas: up 29 spots from 81st to 52nd

  • Coastal Carolina: up 20 spots from 71st to 51st

  • South Alabama: up 19 spots from 83rd to 64th

  • West Virginia: up 18 spots from 58th to 40th

  • Georgia Southern: up 18 spots from 104th to 86th

  • Illinois: up 16 spots from 63rd to 47th

  • Western Kentucky: up 16 spots from 64th to 48th

  • Texas State: up 14 spots from 124th to 110th

  • California: up 12 spots from 75th to 63rd

  • Temple: up 12 spots from 123rd to 111th

  • Washington: up 11 spots from 35th to 24th

  • James Madison: up 11 spots from 79th to 68th

As you might glean from that list, the movement is a combination of both stellar Week 4 performances (hello, Coastal, WVU, WKU, Temple, and others) and the increased weight in 2022 performances to date (Kansas, Illinois, Cal, Washington). And if you were finding some gambling value in Kansas this season, that is probably about to come to an end. The books and metrics have adjusted.

Moving down

On the flipside, here are the 10 teams that moved down at least 12 spots:

  • Boise State: down 33 spots from 45th to 78th

  • North Carolina: down 23 spots from 44th to 67th

  • Virginia Tech: down 18 spots from 61st to 79th

  • Miami: down 18 spots from 27th to 45th

  • Arizona State: down 17 spots from 48th to 65th

  • Fresno State: down 15 spots from 55th to 70th

  • Wisconsin: down 14 spots from 15th to 29th

  • Wyoming: down 13 spots from 94th to 107th

  • Boston College: down 13 spots from 80th to 93rd

  • Vanderbilt: down 12 spots from 87th to 99th

After almost giving up more points to Notre Dame than the Fighting Irish’s first three opponents had combined, North Carolina has plummeted to 113th in defensive SP+, which is how you almost fall out of the overall top 70 with a top-10 offense.

Meanwhile, Boise State … yikes.


Conference rankings

1. SEC: 13.7 average SP+ (34.1 average offensive SP+, 20.6 average defensive SP+)
2. Big 12: 13.2 average (35.1 offense, 21.9 defense)
3. Big Ten: 10.6 average (31.1 offense, 20.4 defense)
4. Pac-12: 5.8 average (30.4 offense, 24.6 defense)
5. ACC: 4.0 average (30.3 offense, 26.2 defense)
6. AAC: 1.0 average (28.5 offense, 27.5 defense)
7. Sun Belt: -3.2 average (24.9 offense, 28.1 defense)
8. Conference USA: -8.7 average (25.0 offense, 33.7 defense)
9. Mountain West: -10.3 average (20.1 offense, 30.3 defense)
10. MAC: -12.0 average (23.6 offense, 35.5 defense)

Nine of the Big 12’s 10 teams have risen in the rankings since the start of the season. Kansas has risen by 51 spots, and five other teams have risen by double digits. The SEC is doing fine overall — seven of the top 17 teams, only one outside the top 60 — but its averages are sliding a bit because of drops from teams like Texas A&M, and the Big 12 has damn near reeled it in for the top spot.

Meanwhile, as mentioned above, the Pac-12 has jumped the ACC into fourth place overall. The top three conferences still have some distance on everyone else, but it has been a lovely bounceback year to date out west.

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Ranking every college football team after Week 3: Washington is back on the rise

What a difference a year makes in Seattle.

A year ago at this time, Washington was 1-2 with losses to FCS Montana and Michigan in which the Huskies scored 17 combined points. On Saturday, the Huskies scored 39 points in a dominant win against a Michigan State team that was ranked No. 11 in the AP poll. And the game wasn’t nearly as close as the 39-28 final score. Washington had 503 total yards and averaged 9.9 yards per pass. With the win to move to 3-0, the Huskies have moved into the top 25 in this week’s edition of The Athletic 131.

Washington’s fall off a cliff under former head coach Jimmy Lake en route to a 4-8 record last season was stunning because it happened so quickly. This was a program that won 32 games from 2016 to 2018 under Chris Petersen. Recruiting had gone relatively well, and it’s one of the best-resourced programs in the West. But the offense had become anemic.

Enter Kalen DeBoer and Michael Penix Jr. DeBoer has won basically everywhere he’s been. He’s 82-9 as a head coach, including a 67-3 stretch at NAIA Sioux Falls from 2005 to 2009. He helped turn around Indiana and Fresno State as the offensive coordinator, then went back to Fresno State and produced a 9-3 record in his second season as head coach.

Penix was electric as Indiana’s quarterback when healthy, but he dealt with several injuries. He’s reunited with DeBoer in Seattle, and Washington football is fun again. Through three games, he’s completing 66 percent of his passes for 359.7 yards per game with 10 touchdowns and one interception.

Everyone wrote off the Pac-12 after Week 1, but we may need to reevaluate that. Washington is the biggest reason why.

Here is the latest edition of The Athletic 131.

The only change in this group is USC’s move up to No. 8 after a 45-17 win against Fresno State. The Trojans look like the best-case scenario under Lincoln Riley right now. The offense is electric. The defense has shown holes (81st in yards per play), but it’s fourth in the nation with 10 takeaways. The trip to Oregon State this week will be an interesting test.

Michigan is a dominant 3-0 but has played three of the worst teams in the country. A home game against Maryland this week will be the first time we can actually begin to evaluate the Wolverines.

The polls have come around to put Georgia at No. 1, and its Week 1 win against Oregon looks even better now after the Ducks’ dominant win against BYU.

11-25

Rank Team Record Prev

11

3-0

13

12

3-0

25

13

2-1

21

14

3-0

20

15

2-1

15

16

2-1

16

17

2-1

18

18

2-1

11

19

2-1

19

20

3-0

49

21

3-0

22

22

2-1

26

23

2-1

24

24

3-0

27

25

3-0

29

Penn State’s 41-12 win at Auburn has quickly changed the view on what is possible for this team. Auburn may not be a good team, but the Nittany Lions were able to run for 245 yards against a good front. The aforementioned 41-20 Oregon win at BYU suddenly makes the Pac-12 look much better now to go with USC, Washington and Utah, which beat San Diego State 35-7.

Texas, Wake Forest and Ole Miss also move into the top 25. The Longhorns avoided an Alabama hangover and pulled away from UTSA in the second half, Wake Forest held off Liberty and Ole Miss pounded Georgia Tech 42-0.

The polls have Utah ahead of Florida and Baylor ahead of BYU, and the coaches poll has Michigan State ahead of Washington. Why? I have no idea. In these rankings, when two teams are close, the head-to-head winner gets the advantage, especially three weeks into the season.

I saw a lot of comments about Minnesota’s ranking last week. It’s barely moved in the rankings because it’s played two of the worst teams in the country and an FCS team. It’s the same reasoning with Michigan and with Ole Miss. It’s not a negative and not a positive. Sometimes you get jumped if someone else has a more impressive win. Minnesota was No. 39 in my preseason ranking and still sits there now. Beat Michigan State, and it’ll most likely be in the top 25.

North Carolina’s win against Appalachian State continues to look better, and the Mountaineers’ Hail Mary win against Troy coupled with Texas A&M’s win against Miami was a boost as well. Maryland’s 34-27 win against SMU was a solid performance.

Kansas and Syracuse! KU is in the top 35 after a 3-0 start with road wins against West Virginia and Houston. Syracuse is 3-0 with wins against Louisville and Purdue. It’s not hard to see a 5-0 Orange start going into the NC State game. Tulane makes the biggest jump this week, from No. 110 into the top 50 after a win against Kansas State to move to 3-0. Notre Dame’s close escape from Cal coupled with Marshall’s loss to Bowling Green drops both teams. Arizona’s 31-28 win against North Dakota State was impressive as an underdog, and the Wildcats are officially a pretty good team.

Several teams slipped into this group with losses — Purdue, Texas Tech, Houston, UTSA and Auburn — but there’s not much movement otherwise. Indiana barely escaped Western Kentucky and Rutgers barely escaped Temple, but both are 3-0. Wyoming’s 17-14 win against Air Force moved the Cowboys to 3-1, with the loss to Illinois.

Vanderbilt’s comeback win at Northern Illinois to move to 3-1 is a real sign of progress for the program. Rice’s 33-21 win against Louisiana was one of the most surprising results of the weekend. Eastern Michigan won at Arizona State, becoming the first MAC school to win a regular-season game against the Pac-12. Northwestern has followed up its Ireland win against Nebraska with losses to Duke and FCS Southern Illinois at home.

South Alabama let a win at UCLA slip away with a field goal as time expired, and Troy let App State win on a Hail Mary. Tough losses. San Diego State is now 1-2 with two blowout losses to Pac-12 teams. Very quickly, this doesn’t look like the Aztecs of old.

(Top photo of Michael Penix and Kalen DeBoer: Joe Nicholson / USA Today)



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College football Week 3 preview

The games seem closer. The crowds seem louder. The energy is palpable. The ratings are evidently up.

The first two weeks of the 2022 college football season have been an absolute blast. We always grade chaotic periods on the “How does it compare to 2007?” scale, and while it would have felt a lot more 2007ish if Alabama had managed to lose to Texas last week, I’ll give it a 4 out of 5 rating on that scale thus far.

Can college football keep it up, or are we due a more stolid week? Nonconference games in SEC land and out west will tell the tale. Here’s everything you need to follow in Week 3, including in-depth breakdowns on five of the week’s biggest games, plus my favorite bets and 19 more games you should keep an eye on.

Tyler Van Dyke’s big moment and massive anxiety in College Station

No. 13 Miami at No. 24 Texas A&M (9 p.m. ET, ESPN/ESPN App)

Texas A&M’s loss to Appalachian State was one of the stories of Week 2, and justifiably so. The Mountaineers forced A&M’s Haynes King to beat them, knowing he probably couldn’t, and they seemingly won every big play in the game (while seemingly losing just about every first and second down). It wasn’t an incredibly sustainable recipe, but it did the job.

For a while, it looked like A&M’s opponent this week, Miami, was going to suffer the same fate against a different Sun Belt visitor. Southern Miss led Mario Cristobal’s Hurricanes 7-3 heading into the final minute of the first half. Quarterback Tyler Van Dyke began the game just 7-for-14 for 70 yards and an interception, and second-quarter sacks and a fourth-down interception stalled drives.

Miami assuaged fears by scoring five times in six possessions and ended up cruising 30-7. Van Dyke completed 13 of his last 15 passes, and Henry Parrish Jr. rushed for 102 yards, but the drought created some doubt. Southern Miss’ defense might turn out to be quite improved in 2022, but it’s safe to say that Texas A&M’s defense is better. Much better. “Second in defensive SP+ at the moment” better. App State converted just enough third downs to control the ball against A&M, but after the Mountaineers put up 61 points at 8.0 yards per play against North Carolina, the Aggies held them to just 17 and 3.8, respectively. Van Dyke will have to take on this defense without his most reliable receiver, too: Xavier Restrepo is out for a while with a foot injury. The return of blue-chip sophomore Jacolby George from suspension could turn out to be important.

Saturday night’s big contest, which will be played at an almost certainly semi-frantic Kyle Field, will likely come down to chunk plays and easy points. You can say that about a lot of big games, obviously, but while A&M’s attack has been bereft of consistency thus far, a lack of big plays has held Miami back as well. FBS teams averaged 4.8 gains of 20-plus yards in Week 2; Miami had only four such plays, and A&M had two. And again, both were playing against Group of 5 defenses. Miami’s offense is infinitely more efficient than A&M’s (the Canes rank second in overall success rate to A&M’s 89th), but it’s really hard to drive the length of the field on the Aggies.

From a pure narrative standpoint, this game is enormous. An A&M win would get Jimbo Fisher’s Aggies back on track and unleash the latest round of the ever-popular “See? I told you Miami is always overrated!” narrative. But a Miami win would be even more significant, likely pushing the Hurricanes back into (or near) the AP top 10 while introducing the prospect of a 1-5 start for A&M. (The Aggies’ next three games after Miami: vs. Arkansas at Jerry World, at Mississippi State, at Alabama. Yikes.)

Current line: A&M -5.5 (down from -6.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: A&M by 6.2 | FPI projection: Miami by 1.2


Did the light bulb just come on for Nicholas Singleton and Penn State?

No. 22 Penn State at Auburn (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)

When I visited Penn State this past spring, I talked to offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich about his new five-star prospects, running back Nicholas Singleton and quarterback Drew Allar. Allar was expected to sit behind sixth-year senior Sean Clifford, but Singleton’s path to early playing time seemed wide open. PSU’s run game stunk last year, and it seemed Singleton could quickly seize the starting job if he was up for the challenge.

Naturally, I asked Yurcich questions that writers tend to ask: How do you manage expectations for a young player? How do you keep pressure off of him and keep his development on an appropriate keel?

He scoffed initially. “That’s interesting,” he said. “You’ll never hear us in a staff meeting, ‘Yeah, let’s talk about how we’re gonna meet a high expectation.’ That doesn’t exist. Let me go into a meeting — ‘Hey, guys, we’ve got this guy, next big thing, five-star guy. We’ve gotta run the ball and meet these expectations that all these journalists have.’ Ridiculous!”

He was having fun with this, but he knew what I was getting at. Guys develop at different speeds, and there was going to be major pressure on Singleton to thrive immediately. “We’ve seen guys develop differently over the years. If they have the right mentality, and there’s gotta be an athletic component within it … but I’d rather just get the five-star guy,” he said after trailing off for a moment. “As high a star as we can get. Out-recruit everybody and be as athletic and big and strong and fast as anybody.”

Singleton is big, strong and fast, and dealing with big expectations for great-looking prospects is a problem Penn State wants to have as frequently as possible.

After a middling debut performance as part of a heavy rotation of backs against Purdue, Singleton gained 11 yards on Penn State’s first rush of the game against Ohio, three on his second and burst down the right sideline for a 70-yard score on his third.

That’s a 219-pounder exploding past FBS-caliber defensive backs.

Late in the third quarter, with PSU up big, he scored again from 44 yards out. He finished the game with 179 yards on 10 carries; PSU’s other backs rushed 10 times for 37 yards.

Allar also looked great in garbage time, which means that the next time Sean Clifford goes through a Clifford-esque rough stretch — which strikes semi-frequently, but from which he always rebounds — the message-board vultures will circle. But Singleton’s moment is now. And now comes a much harder test.

Auburn head coach Bryan Harsin is dealing with his own vultures at the moment — he survived a booster coup attempt last winter with his job intact, but his Tigers struggled far more than expected in a 24-16 win over San Jose State in Week 2 (and his athletic director just left) — but he has still got sturdy line play to lean on. Auburn backs Tank Bigsby, Jarquez Hunter and Damari Alston combined to average 6.3 yards per carry against Mercer and SJSU, and Auburn has allowed just one 10-yard carry in two weeks.

If the Tigers can contain Singleton and put the game back on Clifford’s shoulders, that’s step one toward scoring a slight home upset. Steps two and three would be actually stopping Clifford and a diverse PSU receiving corps — when they struggled to stop Chevan Cordeiro and the SJSU passing attack last week — and then actually making plays with their own struggling QBs. We don’t know if that will come to pass. But if Singleton is running wild, the realistic paths toward an Auburn win vanish awfully quickly.

Current line: PSU -3 (up from -2.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: PSU by 1.5 | FPI projection: PSU by 4.0


Does Oregon rebound, or does BYU’s romp continue?

No. 12 BYU at No. 25 Oregon (3:30 p.m. ET, Fox)

Despite suffering quite a bit of turnover from its brilliant 2020 team, BYU enjoyed a lovely 2021 campaign, beating five Pac-12 opponents and going 6-1 overall against power conference teams. (It avenged its lone loss, to Baylor, last weekend.) After going just 27-25 over his first four seasons in charge, head coach Kalani Sitake has established a sturdy and sustainable program and has won 23 of 27 games since the start of 2020. This growth has come just in time to join the Big 12 in 2023, too.

Oregon’s Dan Lanning, meanwhile, is still trying to figure out what he’s got. His Ducks responded well to their Week 1 shellacking against Georgia by manhandling Eastern Washington 70-14. It was a nice performance against a good FCS opponent, but it didn’t ease the biggest concern I have: Where in the world are the big plays?

Auburn transfer Bo Nix has done a remarkable job of staying on script and getting the ball out of his hands quickly; he’s completing 70% of his passes, and combined with excellent work from a trio of Oregon backs (Sean Dollars, Mar’Keise Irving and Byron Cardwell), the Ducks rank fifth nationally in success rate — despite having played Georgia! Even against the Dawgs, they stayed on schedule well, but there were no chunk plays to be found; even while scoring 70 points against EWU, the Ducks enjoyed only four gains of 20-plus yards. That gave them five for the season, more than just four FBS opponents. (One of those four is Iowa, which doesn’t really count.)

BYU has allowed only three such plays, and all three came when it was already up by 30-plus against USF in Week 1. The Cougars are creating disruption with a bend-but-don’t-break approach — they rank 120th in blitzes per dropback but 15th in sack rate — and according to Sports Info Solutions data, they have missed only two tackles all season. Can Oregon dink and dunk its way to another rebound win? And will it matter if the Oregon defense can’t push back against the physical Cougars?

BYU quarterback Jaren Hall has been rock solid, completing 68% of his passes, albeit at only 10.9 yards per completion. Redshirt freshman Chase Roberts enjoyed a breakout game against Baylor (eight catches, 122 yards and a gorgeous touchdown) in the absence of star receivers Puka Nacua and Gunner Romney, and it appears either or both could return this week. Oregon has left two very conflicting impressions, and on Saturday we’ll learn which one was more accurate.

Current line: Oregon -3.5 (no movement) | SP+ projection: Ducks by 1.2 | FPI projection: Ducks by 1.5


The first big test for Kalen DeBoer’s Washington

No. 11 Michigan State at Washington (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC)

Twenty-five years ago, I was a freshman in college, just as likely to be playing EA’s NCAA Football as going to class; Kalen DeBoer was a student assistant at NAIA’s Sioux Falls, having just wrapped up a record-breaking receiver career there; Mel Tucker was a graduate assistant at Michigan State, having only recently turned to coaching after a failed pro career; and Jim Lambright’s Washington Huskies pummeled Nick Saban’s (and Tucker’s) Spartans 51-23 in the Aloha Bowl.

On Saturday, the two teams will play again, for just the fourth time ever. Saban’s done all right for himself elsewhere, Tucker’s in charge in East Lansing, and after winning three national titles as head coach at Sioux Falls and going 12-6 in charge at Fresno State, DeBoer is in his third game as UW’s head coach. (And I’m looking forward to the return of the video game next year. Not everything changes.)

Coming off of last year’s disastrous 4-8 campaign, Washington has beaten Kent State and Portland State by a combined 97-26. The offense, so moribund in 2021, has found life by reuniting DeBoer, a former Indiana offensive coordinator, with former Hoosier quarterback Michael Penix Jr.

Penix is 12th in Total QBR, Virginia transfer Wayne Taulapapa is averaging 6.6 yards per carry and sophomore blue-chipper Jalen McMillan has caught nine passes for 214 yards. Everything has worked according to plan, but now the competition level ratchets up considerably. Washington might rank third in the nation in points scored per drive, but Michigan State ranks fifth on defense against a similar caliber of competition.

This is a massive test for both teams, one the oddsmakers trust Washington to pass. The computers favor the Spartans (especially SP+), but the line has stuck at UW -3.5 for most of the week.

It wouldn’t be a surprise if DeBoer got things turned around quickly. He’s been great at almost every job he’s ever had, and UW was very good as recently as 2019. But I’m still quite surprised by the line. MSU has suffered some injury issues — linebacker Darius Snow is out for the season, safety Xavier Henderson could also be out, and star receiver Jayden Reed is still recovering from a hard fall into the sideline last week. But SP+ rarely disagrees this significantly with the line without quarterback injuries or a run of suspensions involved. Can the Huskies repay the faith?

Current line: UW -3.5 (up from -3 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: MSU by 7.4 | FPI projection: MSU by 1.2


And now, a word about turnovers luck

Fresno State at No. 7 USC (10:30 p.m. ET, Fox)

One thing advanced stats can do is bring clarity to some of the more general thoughts we have watching our team play football. “We blew too many chances!” can be pretty definitively measured by looking at stats like points per scoring opportunity or red zone touchdown rate, for example. “We fell behind schedule too much!” is a perfect use case for the wonders of success rate. And USC’s incredible current run of sticky fingers gives us good reason to have a quick conversation about turnovers luck.

Fumbles: While odds shift a bit based on where a fumble happens and how many of each team’s players are near, your team can generally expect to recover 50% of all fumbles over a longer period of time.

In two games, USC recovered both of its own fumbles and both of its opponents’ fumbles.

Interceptions: While odds can shift based on how much zone or man defense you play (and, therefore, how many defenders you have either facing the QB or close to the ball), you can generally expect to end up with a ratio of about one interception to every four pass breakups.

In two games, USC has intercepted six passes and broken up seven, while opponents have broken up one and intercepted zero.

Compare the average output to what USC has generated thus far, and you see that USC’s expected turnover margin should be about +2.5 — opponents should have committed about 3.7 turnovers on average to USC’s 1.2. That’s good! There’s randomness baked into the turnovers cake, but generating turnover opportunities isn’t totally random. Alex Grinch’s USC defense wants to be aggressive, and this is a good sign that it’s working to a degree.

On the other hand, USC’s actual turnover margin right now is +8, far better than expected.

Based on field position value, turnovers are generally worth around four to five points. The differences in last week’s 41-28 victory over Stanford alone (+1.6 expected turnover margin, +4 actual) were worth about 10 to 12 in a 13-point win.

This is a long way of saying that, while USC’s transfer-heavy offense has been every bit as good as advertised — Caleb Williams is second in Total QBR, Jordan Addison and Mario Williams have 18 catches for 343 yards, and Travis Dye and Austin Jones are averaging 6.8 yards per carry — the Trojans have also been absurdly lucky.

Despite playing two teams that ran the ball horribly in 2021, they rank 119th in rushing success rate allowed and are allowing 6.8 yards per carry (not including sacks). Turnovers and a surprisingly excellent pass rush have bailed them out through two weeks, but when the turnovers luck dries up, USC is going to find itself having to win quite a few 49-45 games without immediate improvement.

Fresno State ranks seventh in rushing success rate, by the way. Jordan Mims and Malik Sherrod are averaging 5.9 yards per carry. This would be a very good time for USC to find some push up front.

Current line: USC -12 (down from -14 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: USC by 7.3 | FPI projection: USC by 18.7


My favorite bets

After going 3-2 in week 2, we’re at 6-3-1 (65%) for the season. Here are this week’s picks.

Ole Miss (-16.5) at Georgia Tech (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC): The Rebels are dealing with some QB uncertainty — Jaxson Dart was uninspiring in a season-opening win over Troy, and Luke Altmyer looked good but got banged up last week against Central Arkansas. Despite this, the Rebels beat Troy by 18 and UCA by 56. They’ve allowed 13 total points, and I’m not sure Georgia Tech’s offense is that much better than either Troy’s or UCA’s. SP+ projects a 43-15 win, and even if Rebel QB play makes that more like 34-15, that’s still a cover.

Michigan State (+3.5) at Washington (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC): As I said above, Washington could turn out to be excellent this year; I just need to see a bit more before I believe the Huskies are better than Michigan State.

New Mexico State at Wisconsin: under 46 points (3:30 p.m. ET, BTN): Simply based on national averages and projected regression to the mean, SP+ tends to project most games with really low listed point totals to go over and most games with really high totals to go under. The exceptions can be profitable. In games that are (a) listed at 48 total points or fewer and (b) projected under by SP+, SP+ is 4-1 so far this year. With the tweaks I recently made to SP+, it would have been at 57.5% last year on those games, too. It’s not projecting this one FAR under 46 points (44.8), but that’s a pretty good trend.

Western Kentucky (+6.5) at Indiana (noon ET, BTN): Indiana has left mixed impressions this year. Scoring 23 points on Illinois: more impressive than it sounds. Trailing Idaho 10-0 at halftime before winning by 13: not great. WKU, meanwhile, has performed about as SP+ projected in wins over Austin Peay and Hawai’i, and SP+ projects a 3.4-point advantage over the Hilltoppers. Good enough for me.

Notre Dame (-10.5) vs. California (2:30 p.m. ET, NBC): I feel like I’ve had a decent read on Notre Dame this year. It covering against Ohio State was one of my best bets, and I felt like Marshall could severely test its offense last week (even though I by no means had the Thundering Herd winning). So I’m following both my gut and SP+ projections this week — SP+ says the Irish have a nearly 20-point advantage, and I think Cal’s offense is much worse than Marshall’s. So go Irish.


Week 3 playlist

In addition to everything above, here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.

Friday night

Florida State at Louisville (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). Louisville’s season-opening two-game road trip featured a valley (loss to Syracuse by 24) and a peak (six-point rebound win over UCF). Now comes the home opener against an FSU team that hasn’t finished in the SP+ top 50 since 2017 but currently ranks 35th. Betting trends very much favor the Noles.
Current line: FSU -2.5 (a big movement from UL -1 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: FSU by 3.3 | FPI projection: FSU by 1.7

Air Force at Wyoming (8 p.m. ET, CBSSN). Air Force nearly tripled Colorado from a yardage perspective (443-162) in a 41-10 in-state romp last Saturday. The Falcons have won 12 of their past 15 and might not be an underdog for the rest of the regular season. Can they bring their A-game on a Friday night in Laramie, though?
Current line: Air Force -16 (no movement) | SP+ projection: Air Force by 18.8 | FPI projection: Air Force by 14.3

Early Saturday

No. 6 Oklahoma at Nebraska (noon ET, Fox). Nebraska had to pony up an extra $7.5 million to fire Scott Frost immediately instead of waiting until Oct. 1. If the Huskers play a solid, free-wheeling, game against Oklahoma, I’m guessing it’ll be deemed worth it. But after allowing 500-plus yards to Northwestern and 600-plus to Georgia Southern, it’s hard to imagine Nebraska making enough stops to pull off an upset, isn’t it?
Current line: OU -11 (way down from OU -17 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: OU by 13.9 | FPI projection: OU by 9.5.

No. 1 Georgia at South Carolina (noon ET, ESPN). South Carolina seemed to find a desperately needed offensive rhythm in the second half of last week’s loss against Arkansas. That’s pretty faint praise, but on the bright side, if it scores even six points, it’ll have more than doubled what UGA’s first two opponents produced. Current line: UGA -24.5 (down from -27 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: UGA by 24.7 | FPI projection: UGA by 19.9.

Purdue at Syracuse (noon ET, ESPN2). With home games against Virginia and Wagner on deck, 2-0 Syracuse could have an intriguing path to 5-0 if the Orange pull off a slight upset here. Purdue’s offense remains anti-Big Ten, passing nonstop, but Aidan O’Connell has been solid, and Iowa transfer Charlie Jones has more receiving yards (286) than the entire receiving corps he left behind in Iowa City (201).
Current line: Syracuse -1 (flipped from Purdue -1 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Purdue by 5.2 | FPI projection: ‘Cuse by 2.8

Saturday afternoon

California at Notre Dame (2:30 p.m. ET, NBC). As bad as Notre Dame has looked offensively, the computers still think the Fighting Irish are far superior to a 2-0 Cal team that has looked far from spectacular. With quarterback Drew Pyne taking over for the injured Tyler Buchner, there could be even more offensive woes on the way, but that’s not guaranteed … and it might not take too many points to win this one comfortably anyway.
Current line: ND -11 (down from -12.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Irish by 19.9 | FPI projection: Irish by 19.8

Kansas at Houston (4 p.m. ET, ESPNU). This game is so much more intriguing than it probably seemed at the start of the season. Houston has disappointed slightly, playing overtime games against both UTSA (win) and Texas Tech (loss). Kansas, meanwhile, can’t defend just yet but has found its quarterback (Jalon Daniels) and its offense. The numbers still favor the Coogs, but Kansas is legitimately dangerous for the first time in years.
Current line: UH -9 (up from -9 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: UH by 15.8 | FPI projection: UH by 11.1.

Saturday evening

It’s hard to tell you which game will be the most exciting on Saturday evening, but there are tons to choose from. This is the perfect evening to have one of those four- or six-screen setups.

Texas Tech at No. 16 NC State (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2). Man, oh, man, what a perfect test for NC State. The Wolfpack nearly fell to East Carolina in Week 1, and Texas Tech is basically a more extreme and more talented ECU. Both quarterback Donovan Smith and the Red Raiders’ all-or-nothing defense did countless great and terrible things in Tech’s overtime win over Houston last week. Quarterback Devin Leary and a stellar State defense will need to dodge some haymakers.
Current line: NC State -10 (up from -8 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: NC State by 8.7 | FPI projection: NC State by 6.3

Mississippi State at LSU (6 p.m. ET, ESPN). This one’s dead even on paper, but we’ll find out if LSU is more ready for a nip-and-tuck battle than it was two weeks ago against Florida State. Mike Leach and MSU have a defense that is every bit as antisocial and hard to prepare for as the famous air raid offense; LSU still has LSU talent. Which ends up mattering more?
Current line: MSU -2.5 (up from -1 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: LSU by 0.6 | FPI projection: LSU by 2.3

SMU at Maryland (7:30 p.m. ET, FS1). From a pure aesthetics standpoint, this is my favorite game of the week. Rhett Lashlee’s SMU outscored North Texas and Lamar by a combined 93-26, producing both high-level efficiency and nonstop big plays (and, as you would expect from Lashlee, lots of tempo). Maryland hasn’t been quite as sharp defensively but has put up similar offensive numbers. You could do a lot worse than spending your evening watching quarterbacks Taulia Tagovailoa (UM) and Tanner Mordecai (SMU) trading blows.
Current line: Maryland -2.5 (up from -2 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: SMU by 1.3 | FPI projection: Maryland by 6.2

UTSA at No. 21 Texas (8 p.m. ET, LHN). Apparently UTSA, like Houston, has decided to play only nail-biters this year. It wouldn’t be a shock if the Roadrunners threw a scare into a Texas team hung over from last week’s thriller against Alabama, but if UT quarterback Hudson Card is healthy enough to run around a bit, I don’t think a miserable UTSA defense can make enough stops to keep it close.
Current line: Texas -12.5 (down from -13 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Horns by 15.1 | FPI projection: Horns by 21.3

No. 23 Pitt at Western Michigan (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU). Last year, WMU earned honorary ACC champion status by taking down the eventual champion Panthers 44-41. Now Pitt has to go to Kalamazoo, and it’s possible that quarterback Kedon Slovis might miss the game because of injury. Can backup Nick Patti do enough for Pat Narduzzi’s squad to avoid an upset?
Current line: Pitt -10 (no movement) | SP+ projection: Pitt by 18.9 | FPI projection: Pitt by 13.6

Toledo at No. 3 Ohio State (7 p.m. ET, Fox). Ohio State’s going to win this one, but you should keep up with it for two major reasons. First, OSU star receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba is expected to return to action after getting hurt early against Notre Dame in Week 1. We get only so many more college games with him, and you should watch him while you can. Second, Toledo’s defense was excellent last year (35th in defensive SP+) and gave up only 10 points in two cupcake games. The Rockets have a genuinely nasty pass defense that could trouble C.J. Stroud and the Buckeyes for a bit.
Current line: OSU -32 (up from -31.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by 26.9 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 30.9

Missouri State at No. 10 Arkansas (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+). Arkansas is obviously a big favorite over Bobby Petrino’s Bears, but MSU’s offense is sharp and could do a little damage, and … PETRINO BOWL.
SP+ projection: Hogs by 29.1 | FPI projection: Hogs by 41.1

Jacksonville State at Tulsa (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+). Petrino’s not the only former marquee coach thriving at the FCS level. Rich Rodriguez took over a JSU team that had fallen off pace last season, going 5-6 and forcing John Grass’ resignation. He has instantly made the Gamecocks awesome again. They’ve outscored three FCS opponents by a combined 111-37, and they’ve rocketed up to fifth in SP+. Do they have a shot at an FBS upset?
SP+ projection: Tulsa by 0.4 | FPI projection: Tulsa by 16.2

Late Saturday

North Dakota State at Arizona (11 p.m. ET, FS1). For the first time in six years, NDSU, the preeminent FCS program — and a better producer of NFL quarterback talent than most programs at any level — takes on an FBS team. Arizona has left confusing impressions thus far, walloping San Diego State but fading against a high-quality Mississippi State; NDSU is probably closer to MSU than SDSU in quality, and the Bison are as physical as ever. An Arizona win would probably be an upset. SP+ projection: NDSU by 5.2 | FPI projection: Arizona by 2.5.


Smaller-school showcase

As always, let’s save a shout-out for football at levels below FBS. Here are three huge games you should crack open the laptop for this weekend. (I hope you were watching one of last week’s big games — Wisconsin-Whitewater knocked off defending Division III national champion Mary Hardin-Baylor with a 99-yard touchdown drive in the final minutes and scored the game-winning TD with 19 seconds left.)

Including JSU-Tulsa, MSU-Arkansas and NDSU-Arizona above, Week 3 has a distinct FCS flavor to it.

FCS: Grambling at No. 11 Jackson State (2 p.m. ET, ESPN3). Hue Jackson’s G-Men began their FCS season by pummeling Northwestern State, but does that make them ready for a Jackson State team that is still inconsistent on offense but has allowed six points in two games?

FCS: Yale at No. 12 Holy Cross (2 p.m. ET, ESPN+). The Ivy League season begins this weekend, and a game between a potentially dynamite Yale offense and a stout Holy Cross defense is quite the headliner, especially after Holy Cross’ Hail Mary win over Buffalo last weekend.

FCS: No. 10 Delaware at No. 14 Rhode Island (2 p.m. ET, FloFootball). Delaware has enjoyed a delightful start to 2022, knocking off Navy, blowing out in-state rival Delaware State and allowing a total of 16 points in the process. But URI has scored 35 in each of its first two games behind the big arm of former Maryland and Tennessee QB Kasim Hill. This is a huge early game in the Colonial Athletic Association.



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ESPN out of Big Ten negotiations as Fox, CBS, NBC near deals: Sources

The Big Ten is in the process of finalizing its media rights deals, with sources telling The Athletic the league hopes to make an official announcement by early next week. In a stunning development, ESPN has pulled out of negotiations, sources with direct knowledge of the negotiations confirmed to The Athletic.

In addition to Fox, which had locked up Big Ten rights months ago, the conference is likely to partner with both CBS and NBC. Such deals, if finalized, could result in the following Saturday slate: a noon ET game on Fox, a 3:30 p.m. ET game on CBS and prime time on NBC. Multiple sources involved in the negotiations have reiterated over the past month that the Big Ten has prioritized those windows throughout the process.

ESPN officially pulled out of Big Ten negotiations after saying no to the conference’s final offer of a seven-year deal worth $380 million per year, a source told The Athletic on Tuesday. Sports Business Journal first reported the developments.

ESPN’s rejection of the Big Ten’s offer was for only 13 of the Big Ten’s “B”/“C” package of games; ESPN had also looked at a prime-time package. Fox has already landed the league’s “A” package of games, which it will carry in the noon window.

ESPN’s exclusive 10-year deal with the SEC, starting in 2024-25, is believed to be in the $300 million range. That deal includes both 3:30 pm ET and prime-time windows for the conference’s premier games, which differs from what the network was in play for with the Big Ten. Clearly, the worldwide leader did not value the Big Ten’s secondary package at a higher price for fewer years than its SEC deal, especially with the network already obligated to the ACC as well.

The news is undoubtedly historic. ESPN has carried Big Ten football and basketball games for the last 40 years.

 

The Big Ten is also likely to add some sort of streaming option, a source told The Athletic, though it is not yet clear how it will be structured and whether or not Amazon or Apple will be involved. Both companies have significantly increased their investment in live sports programming in the past year. Another streaming candidate under consideration is Peacock, which is already part of NBC’s offerings, a different source said. That would make sense if NBC lands a Big Ten package as it is now expected to do so.

CBS is expected to pay the Big Ten $350 million per year in its new deal, a source confirmed to The Athletic. NBC is also expected to pay around $350 million per year, according to multiple reports. Multiple outlets have reported that the Big Ten is seeking to eclipse $1 billion in rights fees per year in its new deal.

The Big Ten said in a statement Tuesday the “overall constructs of the new rights agreements have not been finalized.”

GO DEEPER

What we know about Big Ten rights negotiations

“The conference continues to have productive meetings with both linear and direct-to-consumer media partners,” the Big Ten said. “We are committed to delivering unparalleled resources and exposure opportunities for Big Ten Conference member institutions, athletic programs, student-athletes, coaches and fans. We are very thankful to the media companies who recognize the value of Big Ten programming and want to deliver it to our fans around the world in a forward-thinking manner.”

With ESPN no longer in the mix to broadcast Big Ten football, expect the network to get involved in either or both of the Pac-12 and Big 12 conferences, whose rights come up next. The Pac-12 already opened its exclusive negotiating window with ESPN early in the aftermath of USC and UCLA’s move to the Big Ten.

—  Richard Deitsch and Matt Fortuna contributed reporting.

(Photo: Matthew O’Haren / USA Today)



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