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College basketball rankings: A shakeup after Xavier’s upset of UConn

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A new year has dawned, and with it a new season. College hoops has officially pivoted from nonconference play — replete with easy buy games, titillating challenges, and tournaments played inside casinos and at tropical locales — to conference play, during which teams must travel through frigid temperatures and try win games in hostile cauldrons. That means no more hiding, and no more smooth sailing for anyone. It’s nothing but frigid, choppy waters ahead.

So this might be the last time all season that I can say there was not much movement on my ballot. Here, then, for the first time in 2023, I present the correct order of the top 25 teams in men’s college basketball, as submitted to the Associated Press on Sunday night:

Seth Davis’ Top 25 for Monday, Jan. 2

Dropped out: North Carolina (16), Kentucky (19), Memphis (21)

Almost Famous: Auburn, Florida Atlantic, Illinois, Missouri, Providence, Saint Mary’s, Utah State

Notes on the votes

• Those of you who follow my rankings closely (and you know who you are) understand that I consider far more than just whether a team won or lost games the previous week. I put added weight on whom it played, how it played, and most of all, where it played. We all know it’s really, really hard to win on the road. Conversely, that means a top-25 team should win at home, especially if it’s against a team that’s ranked lower or not at all.

I had three results inside my top five from last Saturday that I needed to consider: UConn’s 83-73 loss at Xavier, Kansas’ 69-67 home win over Oklahoma State, and Arizona’s 69-60 win at Arizona State. I almost left UConn at No. 2, because there is no shame in losing to a good team on the road, and the Huskies have been arguably the best team in the country this season. I was compelled, however, to bump Arizona up a couple of spots because its win was decisive, and it happened against a good team on the road. Arizona also had a neutral-court win over Indiana and a home win over Tennessee in December, which pushed its 81-66 loss at Utah on Dec. 1 deeper into the rearview mirror. Most teams will have a bad game once in a while, and that loss was to a conference opponent on the road.

As for Kansas, I generally don’t believe in punishing teams after wins, but the Jayhawks were playing at home against an unranked team in Oklahoma State that has lost this season to Southern Illinois and UCF, and they darn near lost. I don’t consider moving a team down one slot much of a punishment anyway, but the Jayhawks dropped because of my decision to leapfrog Arizona.

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• I’m guessing there is still some confusion as to why I have Houston at No. 8 when the Cougars were No. 3 in the AP poll last week and are No. 1 in the NET, KenPom and BartTorvik. The answer lies in their resume. Houston’s best win was at Virginia. A fabulous road win, no doubt, but Virginia also lost its next game at Miami. Other than that, Houston’s best win came in Fort Worth over unranked Saint Mary’s. It also has several wins over unranked teams that were uncomfortably close, including Saturday’s 71-65 home win over UCF. It’s notable that Houston is No. 7 in Kevin Pauga’s KPI rankings, which is based solely on results, whereas the other metrics are intended to be predictive. There are also some head-to-head results to consider. Houston lost at home to Alabama, so shouldn’t the Cougars be ranked behind the Crimson Tide? And Alabama lost to Gonzaga in Birmingham later that week, so shouldn’t the Tide be behind the Zags? Given that Houston is by far the best team in its conference, I expect this team will keep winning and rise in the rankings accordingly, but that’s why I have the Cougars where they are. Metrics are useful, but they’re not gospel.

• To expand on my point about the metrics, let’s look at some teams where the rankings seem to be way off, for better and worse. Is there anyone who would argue that Miami doesn’t deserve to be ranked? Well, the Hurricanes are 33rd in the NET, 37th on KenPom, and 50th on BartTorvik. Yet, KPI has them at No. 9. They shouldn’t be ranked that high, but in this case, KPI is much closer to accurate.

Then there are the two teams that the metrics love to hate: Wisconsin (44 NET, 42 KenPom, 49 BartTorvik) and Providence (57 NET, 44 KenPom, 58 BartTorvik). KPI is split on this one – it has Wisconsin at 12, and Providence at 64. This is all because the metrics do not like teams that win a lot of close games. Yet, when they calculate the standings and the Quad records, a win counts the same whether it comes by one or 100. By the way, Providence has a big game Wednesday night at home against UConn. The Huskies won’t be in a great mood, but it’s not often you get to play a top-five team on your home court. The Friars would do well to at least pass the eye test.

On the flip side, the metrics are smitten with West Virginia (13 NET, 20 KenPom, 13 BartTorvik, 25 KPI), even though the Mountaineers’ best win was at Pittsburgh and they just lost at Kansas State in their Big 12 opener. Auburn also has strong metrics and continues to be ranked in the AP top 25 even though the Tigers’ resume is very meh. Their best win was on a neutral court over Northwestern, and they have losses in December to Memphis (neutral) and USC (road).

• The big winner this week, of course, was Xavier. That was an amazing win the Musketeers pulled off Saturday under immense pressure. The two things that stood out to me were Jack Nunge’s 15 points, three rebounds and three assists while battling a virus. Most people don’t want to get out of bed when they’re that sick, much less play a high-level basketball game, but Nunge pulled through like a champ. The other was the contributions off the bench by 6-7 senior forward Jerome Hunter, a Glue Guy who played for Sean Miller’s brother, Archie, at Indiana. Xavier is a really good offensive team but only a so-so-defensive one. Hunter gives this team the toughness it needs at that end of the floor. He will become an extremely valuable piece during the dog days of February.

• I’ve been more supportive of North Carolina and Kentucky than my fellow voters, but those teams made it easy for me to drop them after losing to Pitt and Missouri, respectively. Speaking of Missouri, I gave the Tigers a hard look, not only for their win over Kentucky but also their evisceration of Illinois in the Braggin’ Rights game. Frankly, I’m not quite sure just how good those teams are, and the Tigers had a very suspect nonconference schedule otherwise, so I decided to wait just a little bit longer before putting a number next to their name. But if they keep playing like this, it’s only a matter of time.

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• Memphis’ loss at Tulane on Sunday opened up another spot. I’ve been stumping for Creighton the last couple of weeks — I even gave the Jays a coveted Buy-Plus rating in my annual Hoop Thoughts Stock Report — so I gave them the final spot even though it doesn’t take much to beat Butler and DePaul at home. My point all along was that the reason Creighton plummeted so badly was because Ryan Kalkbrenner was out, but now that he’s back, I expect them to surge again. They’ve got Seton Hall at home and UConn on the road this week, to be followed by Xavier (road) and Providence (home) next week. We’ll find out soon enough whether my faith in this team is justified.

(Top photo of Xavier’s Colby Jones: Dylan Buell / Getty Images)



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With first CFP rankings of 2022 released, what would a 12-team expanded field look like?

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While not officially finalized, the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff is expected to debut with the 2024 season. Each week for the remainder of the season, The Athletic will test drive the proposed format using the Playoff committee’s latest Top 25 rankings — and predict how it will play out.

Here’s how the bracket would be seeded and the site locations determined using the committee’s Nov. 1 rankings. Note: The Orange and Cotton bowls were previously scheduled to host the 2024-25 semifinals and Atlanta the national championship game.

Top four seeds (first-round byes):

  1. Tennessee (SEC champion)
  2. Ohio State (Big Ten champion)
  3. Clemson (ACC champion)
  4. TCU (Big 12 champion)

Under the CFP board’s approved model, the top four seeds will be reserved for the four highest-ranked conference champions. For our purposes, we’re designating each conference’s top-ranked team as its champion. That means No. 1 Tennessee (SEC), No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten), No. 4 Clemson (ACC) and No. 7 TCU (Big 12) would get a bye into the quarterfinals.

Nos. 5-12 seeds:

5. Georgia (at-large)
6. Michigan (at-large)
7. Alabama (at-large)
8. Oregon (Pac-12 champ)
9. USC (at-large)
10. LSU (at-large)
11. Ole Miss (at-large)
12. Tulane (AAC champ)

Under the same model, the six highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed berths along with the six highest-ranked at-large teams. Were the season to end today, the fifth- and sixth-highest ranked conference champions would be No. 8 Oregon (Pac-12) and No. 19 Tulane (AAC).

Joining them in the field would be the six highest-ranked remaining teams: No. 3 Georgia, No. 5 Michigan, No. 6 Alabama, No. 9 USC, No. 10 LSU and No. 11 Ole Miss.

The CFP schedule

All times Eastern.

First Round

Fri. Dec. 13

  • No. 9 USC at No. 8 Oregon, 7:30 p.m.

Sat. Dec. 14

  • No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Georgia, noon
  • No. 11 Ole Miss at No. 6 Michigan, 4 p.m.
  • No. 10 LSU at No. 7 Alabama, 8 p.m.

The four first-round games will be played on the campuses of the Nos. 5-8 seeds during the third weekend in December. Which games get placed in which slots would likely be determined by ESPN, with LSU-Alabama as the obvious Saturday prime-time selection. (Oregon would not be expected to host a noon ET/9 a.m. PT game on Saturday.)

And hey, Big Ten fans’ long-held “SEC team has to go play up North in December” fantasy finally comes to fruition with Ole Miss playing at Michigan.

Quarterfinals

Tue. Dec. 31

  • Peach Bowl: No. 3 Clemson vs. Michigan-Ole Miss winner, 7:30 p.m.

Wed. Jan 1

  • Fiesta Bowl: No. 4 TCU vs. Georgia-Tulane winner, 1 p.m.
  • Rose Bowl: No. 2 Ohio State vs. Alabama-LSU winner, 5 p.m.
  • Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Tennessee vs. Oregon-USC winner, 8:45 p.m.

It is expected that the current New Year’s Six bowls will rotate hosting the quarterfinals and semifinals, with a goal of playing most quarterfinals on New Year’s Day. And the CFP board stated in its announcement that the top four seeds will be assigned “in consideration of current contract bowl relationships.”

Using those parameters, No. 1 seed Tennessee would go the SEC’s contract bowl, the Sugar Bowl, and No. 2 seed Ohio State to the Rose Bowl as Big Ten champion. The Peach and Fiesta bowls do not have conference partners, but geography suggests No. 3 Clemson would go to Atlanta, leaving No. 4 TCU for the Fiesta Bowl.

Semifinals

Thu. Jan. 9

  • Cotton Bowl: No. 2 Ohio State/No. 7 Alabama/No. 10 LSU vs. No. 3 Clemson/No. 6 Michigan/No. 11 Ole Miss, 7:30 p.m.

Fri. Jan. 10

  • Orange Bowl: No. 1 Tennessee/No. 8 Oregon/No. 9 USC. vs. No. 4 TCU/No. 5 Georgia/No. 12 Tulane, 7:30 p.m.

The commissioners have not officially determined the dates of the semifinals, but they would have to be at least a week later than the quarterfinals, and the CFP would avoid scheduling them opposite the NFL’s Wild Card weekend (Jan. 11-13). That likely means placing one on Thursday night and the other on Friday night.

The CFP board’s announcement said “the higher seeds would receive preferential placement in the Playoff semifinal games.” That would depend on which teams win their quarterfinals, but if No. 1 seed Tennessee advanced, Knoxville is effectively equidistant between the two sites so could theoretically go to either. We picked the Orange.

Mon. Jan. 20

  • National championship game in Atlanta, 7:30 p.m.

The title game is expected to remain on Monday night, as the NFL’s Divisional Round has a stranglehold on potential weekend dates. The CFP had already selected Atlanta as its site for the 2025 national championship game, and it is expected to remain so even though the game will likely be played two weeks later than first planned.

And here’s how we predict the tournament would unfold in the quarterfinals and beyond:

  • No. 8 Oregon beats No. 9 USC
  • No. 5 Georgia beats No. 12 Tulane
  • No. 6 Michigan beats No. 11 Ole Miss
  • No. 7 Alabama beats No. 10 LSU
  • No. 1 Tennessee beats No. 8 Oregon
  • No. 5 Georgia beats No. 4 TCU
  • No. 6 Michigan beats No. 3 Clemson
  • No. 2 Ohio State beats No. 7 Alabama
  • No. 5 Georgia beats No. 1 Tennessee
  • No. 2 Ohio State beats No. 6 Michigan
  • No. 2 Ohio State beats No. 5 Georgia

Related reading

Check out all of our CFP rankings coverage.

(Top and inline illustrations: John Bradford / The Athletic; Top photos: Ben Jackson, Donald Page, Mark Brown/ Getty Images)



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Staples: Ranking 13 teams eligible for College Football Playoff (even if they aren’t top 4 this week)

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Every Saturday night, Andy Staples and Ari Wasserman react to the weekend’s slate of games on The Andy Staples Show & Friends. On Mondays, Andy revisits his and Ari’s biggest takeaway from Saturday night’s instant reaction. This week: Ari gave everyone homework — rank the 13 teams eligible for the College Football Playoff.

The only rankings that actually matter debut on Tuesday. And even these don’t truly matter. Remember, the first time the College Football Playoff selection committee released a ranking in 2014, these were the top four:

  1. Mississippi State
  2. Florida State
  3. Auburn
  4. Ole Miss

How many of those teams actually made the inaugural CFP? One. The Seminoles went 13-0, entered the bracket as a No. 3 seed and got crushed by Oregon in the Rose Bowl. So don’t despair if your team isn’t in the top four on Tuesday when the committee reveals its first ranking of the 2022 season.

As long as your team is one of the Lucky 13, of course.

On the postgame edition of The Andy Staples Show, Ari and I determined which teams remain eligible for the CFP. We might be wrong, but eight seasons worth of selections have established a fairly reliable pattern. The committee has yet to place a two-loss team* into the top four. You don’t have to be a conference champion to make the top four, but you’d better not have a blowout loss. (Unless you avenged said loss in the conference title game or beat the team that blew you out earlier in the season.) At the end of the show, Ari gave all of us a homework assignment: Rank these 13 teams.

*You’ll notice two-loss LSU is omitted from the Lucky 13. This is based on committee precedent. Should LSU beat Alabama and then beat Georgia or Tennessee in the SEC title game, perhaps that changes this year. A two-loss Auburn probably would have made the bracket in 2017, but the Tigers lost their rematch against Georgia in the SEC title game.

Entering this week’s games, these are the 13 teams that can still make the CFP, listed by conference.

ACC

Big 12

Big Ten

  • Illinois
  • Michigan
  • Ohio State

Pac-12

SEC

  • Alabama
  • Georgia
  • Ole Miss
  • Tennessee

That this many teams remain in the hunt means we’ve had a pretty fun season so far. Also, it doesn’t feel as if there are one or two teams that would absolutely smash everyone else still in the hunt. When the CFP expands to 12 in a few years, we’ll be able to measure the teams still in the hunt at this point by the dozen. But for now, let’s be happy the number is this high.

To complete Ari’s assignment, I tried to imagine how I’d vote as a committee member. I collected some stats I know are important to the committee. I also used some that I find important. I used the SP+ predictive ranking created by ESPN’s Bill Connelly. This is my favorite of the predictive ranking formulas, but I won’t quibble if you want to use ESPN’s Football Power Index or Jeff Sagarin’s rankings. (Bill’s formula can’t seem to accept that Texas isn’t back this year, but I’m willing to forgive that.)

I do like the FPI’s strength of schedule measurement, though. So I also used that. The FPI also has a handy measurement of remaining schedule strength, but that isn’t necessary for this exercise since we can only go by the games that have already been played. I also used the FPI’s strength of record, which measures how difficult a team’s record is to achieve based on the strength of its opponents, travel time, rest time and other factors.

One stat I love is net points per drive. This is the number of points a team’s offense averages per drive minus the average number of points that team’s defense allows on each opponent drive. Brian Fremeau keeps this stat on his excellent site. He also keeps available yards, which is another fun one. If a team gets the ball at its own 20, it has 80 yards available. If it scores a touchdown, then it gained 100 percent of available yards. I didn’t want to get too in the weeds, though. So I left that out.

Instead of using wins against Top 25 teams, which seems fairly arbitrary and also would require me to rank 25 out of 131 teams, I stole a concept from the NCAA Basketball Selection Committee. In basketball, the committee weigh Quadrant 1 (games against teams in the top 25 percent of the NET ranking) wins heavily. Football doesn’t have as many data points, so I decided to count Quadrant 1 and Quadrant 2 wins using SP+ as the ranking. Quad 1 is the teams ranked No. 1 through No. 30. Quad 2 is the teams ranked No. 31 through No. 60.

I also wanted to use some raw numbers that aren’t adjusted by any proprietary formula. So I went with tried-and-true yards per play gained and yards per play allowed. This adjusts for tempo better than total offense and total defense, and it also helps identify outliers.

Even though I know enough about these teams to make educated guesses as to their identities based on their numbers, I stripped the team names off my spreadsheet before I started sorting stats. My hope was that I would forget which team corresponded to which letter. That way, I could rank based solely on what the team had done this season and not on brand name, past success or failure or conference affiliation.

Does that make this ranking objective? Of course not. Rankings are by their nature subjective. At a certain point, I have to look at two (or three or four) data sets that seem quite similar and decide which one to place above the other(s).

Here’s my spreadsheet. Feel free to rank the teams as you see fit…

 

The actual committee chooses a bucket of about six teams in order to select its top three. It then scrubs through the list three at a time until it reaches 25. The six that seemed to belong at the top here were teams E, F, K, J, M and L.

So I moved them into a different spreadsheet and tried to parse them. Team J leads everyone with four Quad 1 wins but has a loss. Team M has three Quad 1 and two Quad 2 wins and the No. 1 strength of record. But Team M is one of only two on this list with a yards per play number above No. 15 in the nation. Its defense is No. 39 in yards per play allowed. But its offense is No. 3 in yards per play gained, and it is No. 5 in net points per drive. In other words, its defense might be giving up yards, but Team M usually is winning its games by a healthy margin.

Team K and Team F look cleaner. Neither has a loss, and both have single-digit ranks in the yards per play stats. Team K is No. 2 in net points per drive and has one Quad 1 win and three Quad 2 wins. Team F is No. 2 in strength of record and No. 1 in net points per drive. The drawback to these two? Their schedules haven’t been as difficult as Team J or Team M’s schedules.

Still, these two have been so consistent that I feel like I need to place them in the top two. So I’ll make Team F No. 1 and Team K No. 2. I’m only choosing the top three now, so I have to decide between Team J and Team M and then send the remaining team back to the pool. Team M’s No. 1 strength of record suggests that’s who I should pick, but I suspect Team M handed Team J its loss. I like using head-to-head results as a tiebreaker. (Otherwise why bother playing?)

So I peek at my key, which confirms my suspicion. Team M will be No. 3. Team J goes back in the pool.

My top three look like this:

  1. Ohio State (Team F)
  2. Georgia (Team K)
  3. Tennessee (Team M)

Now let’s move on. You’ve probably guessed by now that Team J is Alabama, but let’s try to ignore that knowledge and compare it with the next group.

We take the three remaining teams from the first group (J, E, L) and add three more teams (H, C, G).

The two that jump off the page are Team J and Team E. We’re trying very hard not to make any assumptions because we know who J is. What happened from 2009-21 is not important here. E has a similar strength of record, two Quad 1 and two Quad 2 wins and a better net points per drive rank. It seems the defense has been stingier but the offense isn’t quite as explosive. The biggest difference is strength of schedule. Team J’s strength of schedule is 10th out of 131. Team E’s is 79th, the lowest in this grouping of six. So let’s give the nod to Team J. Then Team E.

I’ve ranked:

4. Alabama (Team J)

5. Michigan (Team E)

Now let’s choose No. 6 from the remaining four on our list (H, C, G, L). All of these teams have more flaws than the others, and those flaws seem to show up on defense. Team G has a loss but only one Quad 1 or Quad 2 win. So that team goes back in the pool. Team C’s strength of record is No. 3, meaning it has achieved something difficult relative to its schedule. Team L has the best net points per drive rank and has two Quad 1 wins and one Quad 2 win.

I think I’m going with Team C. After peeking at my key, I see I’ve ranked:

6. TCU (Team C)

I’ll spare you most the gory details, but I ranked the next 13 the same way:

7. Ole Miss (Team L)

8. Clemson (Team A)

9. Oregon (Team G)

10. UCLA (Team H)

11. Illinois (Team D)

12. USC (Team I)

13. North Carolina (Team B)

The biggest surprise? Ole Miss at No. 7. If I had the team names next to the stats, I probably would have placed Ole Miss around No. 10. After watching the Rebels against Auburn, LSU and Ole Miss, I have no faith in their defense to hold up enough to allow them to beat Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi State and the SEC East champion. But their defensive stats are not as bad as I thought, and Clemson’s were not as good as I thought. Plus, Ole Miss has an elite offense and Clemson has a pedestrian one.

That said, I think it’s much more likely that Clemson goes undefeated and makes the CFP than Ole Miss goes 12-1 and makes the bracket. But after looking at these numbers, I have less faith in the Tigers to beat Notre Dame, Louisville, Miami, South Carolina and the Coastal Division champion (probably North Carolina) in consecutive weeks than I did before. Taken individually, Clemson should beat each of those teams. But it feels as if the Tigers aren’t playing with the same margin for error they had when they were making the CFP every year. Another game as sloppy as their Syracuse matchup could result in a loss.

But that’s why they play the games. Clemson could prove me wrong and wind up in the field.

The bigger question: Will this be a Lucky 13 next week? The Tennessee-Georgia loser probably stays on the list. But can everyone else?

(Photo: Eakin Howard / Getty Images)



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College football SP+ rankings after Week 7

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It’s been 21 years since Tennessee finished in the AP top five. It had almost been that long since the Vols had beaten Alabama, too, but Saturday’s thrilling 52-49 win in Knoxville is allowing UT fans to dream big again. The advanced stats, meanwhile, are backing up the dreams.

In this week’s SP+ rankings, the Vols jumped to fifth. If they finish there, it would be their best ranking since 1999. This being a predictive ranking and not a measure of résumés, they are still behind Bama overall (though the gap is closing quickly). But considering they are now given at least 71% win probability in five of their final six regular-season games, the odds of a huge season — first 10-win season since 2007? first 11-win season since 2001? first 12-win season since 1998? — are only increasing.

Below are this week’s SP+ rankings. What is SP+? In a single sentence, it’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.

SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.

This week’s movers

Let’s take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings. (Note: We’re looking at ratings, not rankings.)

Moving up

Here are the 10 teams whose ratings rose the most this week:

  • Hawai’i: up 4.9 adjusted points per game (ranking rose from 131st to 127th)

  • Syracuse: up 4.3 (from 57th to 38th)

  • Old Dominion: up 3.9 (from 90th to 85th)

  • South Alabama: up 3.5 (from 66th to 50th)

  • UCF: up 3.2 (from 38th to 25th)

  • New Mexico State: up 3.2 (from 127th to 125th)

  • Arizona: up 3.1 (from 96th to 88th)

  • TCU: up 3.0 (from 23rd to 13th)

  • Charlotte: up 2.6 (from 125th to 122nd)

  • Bowling Green: up 2.6 (from 124th to 121st)

Moving down

Here are the 10 teams whose ratings fell the most:

  • Notre Dame: down 4.9 points (ranking fell from 27th to 43rd)

  • BYU: down 4.4 (from 52nd to 70th)

  • NC State: down 3.4 (from 32nd to 41st)

  • Alabama: down 3.1 (from second to third)

  • UConn: down 3.1 (from 122nd to 126th)

  • Coastal Carolina: down 3.0 (from 46th to 61st)

  • Liberty: down 2.8 (from 72nd to 82nd)

  • Mississippi State: down 2.7 (from 12th to 20th)

  • Texas: down 2.5 (from fifth to sixth)

  • Colorado State: down 2.5 (from 126th to 128th)

Conference rankings

Here are FBS’ 10 conferences, ranked by average SP+:

1. SEC: 13.1 average SP+ (34.4 average offensive SP+, 21.4 average defensive SP+)
2. Big 12: 11.9 average SP+ (35.4 offense, 23.5 defense)
3. Big Ten: 9.8 average SP+ (30.0 offense, 20.3 defense)
4. Pac-12: 5.7 average SP+ (32.4 offense, 26.8 defense)
5. ACC: 3.7 average SP+ (29.5 offense, 25.8 defense)
6. AAC: 1.1 average SP+ (29.0 offense, 27.8 defense)
7. Sun Belt: 0.2 average SP+ (27.3 offense, 27.1 defense)
8. Conference USA: -10.7 average SP+ (24.4 offense, 35.1 defense)
9. Mountain West: -14.0 average SP+ (17.0 offense, 31.0 defense)
10. MAC: -14.5 average SP+ (21.5 offense, 35.9 defense)

We have long taken to referring to these 10 conferences as the Power Five and Group of Five, but with those averages, I think we need a new set of tiers for this season: Power Three, Middle Four and Faraway Three. The Sun Belt currently ranks seventh, but its average is almost as close to second place as eighth. And of the 32 teams ranked 100th or worse at the moment, 26 reside in one of the bottom three conferences. (Three others are independents.)

Meanwhile, 17 of the top 25 teams are from either the SEC, Big 12 or Big Ten, and another four are from the Pac-12. So maybe it’s Power Four and Middle Three?

Résumé SP+

Since the College Football Playoff rankings are on the horizon, I’m also including Résumé SP+ rankings in this piece each week.

As mentioned above, SP+ is intended to be a power rating, not a resume evaluation tool, but Résumé SP+ attempts to fill that latter gap. It is a look at two things: (1) how the average SP+ top five team would be projected to perform against your schedule (in terms of scoring margin) and (2) how your scoring margin compares to (1). Throw in a seven-point penalty for every loss a team has suffered, and you can say that this is what the CFP rankings would look like if SP+ were in charge.

(Note: Because of the high bar teams have to clear in getting compared to an average top-five team, and because of the loss adjustment, almost every team here ends up with a negative score. It is what it is.)

Here is your Résumé SP+ top 15 after seven weeks:

1. Ohio State (6-0): +8.5 PPG
2. Georgia (7-0): +8.3
3. Tennessee (6-0): +0.0
4. Michigan (7-0): -2.0
5. Ole Miss (7-0): -2.9
6. Alabama (6-1): -3.5
7. TCU (6-0): -6.3
8. Clemson (7-0): -8.8
9. Syracuse (6-0): -9.4
10. UCLA (6-0): -11.7
11. UCF (5-1): -13.1
12. USC (6-1): -13.9
13. Texas (5-2): -15.0
14. Illinois (6-1): -16.1
15. Oklahoma State (5-1): -16.4

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Mandel’s Final Thoughts: Could Tide be vulnerable vs. Vols? Plus Sooner madness, L.A. greatness

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And now, 23 Final Thoughts from a Saturday that began at 11 a.m. Dallas time in front of 90,000 at the Cotton Bowl and ended at 11:30 p.m. Palo Alto time in front of a few thousand half-awake fans at Stanford Stadium who unwittingly (and unfortunately for them) saw the most incredible ending of the whole darn day.

1. CBS has apparently hired a psychic to run its programming department. Two years in a row, they’ve used their one prime-time pick of the season to air an Alabama-Texas A&M matchup. Both years, the Tide were massive favorites. Both years, it came down to the final play. The Aggies won on a walk-off field goal in 2021. The Tide survived on an A&M incompletion in 2022.

And now, those CBS suits are about to be big winners again. Next week, they get the biggest Alabama-Tennessee game since Nick Saban was still coaching the Dolphins.

2. Fans under the age of around 25 might not even realize that the Tide and Vols are traditional rivals, mainly because Saban’s program has won the past 15 meetings and generally fought in a different weight class than the long-dormant Vols. But lo and behold, these two will meet in Knoxville next week both with undefeated records and top-8 rankings, and for once, Alabama may be the more vulnerable team.

Especially if Heisman winner Bryce Young can’t play.

3. Alabama’s 24-20 escape against ostensibly overmatched A&M (3-3, 1-2 SEC) was a weird, weird game.



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Alabama Crimson Tide star quarterback Bryce Young does not start against Texas A&M Aggies

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TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — Alabama star quarterback Bryce Young did not start Saturday night’s game against Texas A&M as he continues to deal with shoulder soreness in his throwing arm.

Young dressed out and was one of three team captains for the game but did not attempt any passes during pregame warm-ups. Shortly before kickoff, Young was announced in the stadium as the starter.

Instead, Jalen Milroe, who scored two touchdowns in relief of Young during last weekend’s win at Arkansas, got the start.

Young, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner and a possible first-round pick in next year’s NFL draft, was injured during the first half at Arkansas when he scrambled, was tackled and landed on his throwing shoulder.

Saban told ESPN on Thursday that there was no structural damage done to Young’s shoulder. Saban said the injury is not expected to keep Young out long term.

Young took reps at practice this week but was limited throwing the football.

Saban consistently said throughout the week that Young’s availability would be evaluated daily and that the decision whether or not to play would be done in consultation with Young and the medical staff.

“He’s the only one who knows how he feels because it’s going to be a pain-tolerance thing,” Saban said on Thursday. “He’s a tough kid and great competitor. We’ll see where he is on game day.”

A redshirt freshman from Texas, Milroe threw for 65 yards and a touchdown against Arkansas. He also rushed for 91 yards and a touchdown.

No. 1 Alabama goes on the road to No. 8 Tennessee next Saturday.

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College football picks against the spread: Stewart Mandel’s Week 5 picks

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I’m coming off my best week of the season at 8-3 against the spread. Keep that in the back of your head as you read some of this week’s sometimes crazy-sounding picks.

Last week: 8-3 against the spread

Season: 23-21 against the spread

(All point spreads come from BetMGM, click here for live odds, all kickoff times Eastern.)

No. 15 Washington (-2.5) at UCLA, Friday, 10:30 p.m. (ESPN)

While both teams are 4-0, Washington has done it against slightly better competition. And the Michael Penix Jr.-led Huskies have been dominant against everyone. Conversely, Dorian Thompson-Robinson and the Bruins were fortunate to survive South Alabama. Taking a Friday night road team is risky, but UCLA’s defense could be overmatched.

Washington 38, UCLA 34Pick: Washington -2.5

No. 4 Michigan (-10.5) at Iowa, Noon (Fox)

Kinnick Stadium is known as the place where top 5 teams go to die, including Jim Harbaugh’s undefeated 2016 team that lost on a last-second field goal. But none of those previous Iowa teams had the nation’s 128th-ranked offense.



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College football SP+ rankings after Week 4

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In Week 4 of the 2022 college football season, the teams that hadn’t yet looked vulnerable finally did so (except Minnesota, anyway). Georgia dilly-dallied for long periods in its win over Kent State, Michigan had to lean heavily on Blake Corum to stay ahead ahead of Maryland, USC needed all of 60 minutes to fend off Oregon State, and in the end, 12 of the remaining 33 unbeaten FBS teams lost, five as favorites.

Now that the ground has settled and all of the top teams (except Minnesota) have had at least one close call, the SP+ ratings look … about as they did before the season. Alabama’s back on top, Ohio State and Georgia are nearly tied for second, and of the teams in the current SP+ top 10, nine were projected 13th or higher in the preseason. (The exception? You guessed it: Minnesota!)

That’s not to say nothing has changed, however. The Big 12’s brilliant early showing has given it five teams in the top 23 and eight in the top 40 (and has prevented Oklahoma from falling after Saturday night’s loss to Kansas State). Out west, the Pac-12 has shown all sorts of life, jumping the ACC in the averages and landing five teams in the top 25. Beneath the surface, there is plenty of change afoot.

What is SP+? In a single sentence, it’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.

SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.

This week’s movers

After four weeks, nearly half the SP+ formula is based on actual performances instead of preseason projections. While that makes it rather impressive that so few teams have changed at the very top of the rankings, it does mean that lots of teams moved up and down significantly this week.

Moving up

Here are the 12 teams that moved up at least 11 spots after Week 4:

  • Kansas: up 29 spots from 81st to 52nd

  • Coastal Carolina: up 20 spots from 71st to 51st

  • South Alabama: up 19 spots from 83rd to 64th

  • West Virginia: up 18 spots from 58th to 40th

  • Georgia Southern: up 18 spots from 104th to 86th

  • Illinois: up 16 spots from 63rd to 47th

  • Western Kentucky: up 16 spots from 64th to 48th

  • Texas State: up 14 spots from 124th to 110th

  • California: up 12 spots from 75th to 63rd

  • Temple: up 12 spots from 123rd to 111th

  • Washington: up 11 spots from 35th to 24th

  • James Madison: up 11 spots from 79th to 68th

As you might glean from that list, the movement is a combination of both stellar Week 4 performances (hello, Coastal, WVU, WKU, Temple, and others) and the increased weight in 2022 performances to date (Kansas, Illinois, Cal, Washington). And if you were finding some gambling value in Kansas this season, that is probably about to come to an end. The books and metrics have adjusted.

Moving down

On the flipside, here are the 10 teams that moved down at least 12 spots:

  • Boise State: down 33 spots from 45th to 78th

  • North Carolina: down 23 spots from 44th to 67th

  • Virginia Tech: down 18 spots from 61st to 79th

  • Miami: down 18 spots from 27th to 45th

  • Arizona State: down 17 spots from 48th to 65th

  • Fresno State: down 15 spots from 55th to 70th

  • Wisconsin: down 14 spots from 15th to 29th

  • Wyoming: down 13 spots from 94th to 107th

  • Boston College: down 13 spots from 80th to 93rd

  • Vanderbilt: down 12 spots from 87th to 99th

After almost giving up more points to Notre Dame than the Fighting Irish’s first three opponents had combined, North Carolina has plummeted to 113th in defensive SP+, which is how you almost fall out of the overall top 70 with a top-10 offense.

Meanwhile, Boise State … yikes.

Conference rankings

1. SEC: 13.7 average SP+ (34.1 average offensive SP+, 20.6 average defensive SP+)
2. Big 12: 13.2 average (35.1 offense, 21.9 defense)
3. Big Ten: 10.6 average (31.1 offense, 20.4 defense)
4. Pac-12: 5.8 average (30.4 offense, 24.6 defense)
5. ACC: 4.0 average (30.3 offense, 26.2 defense)
6. AAC: 1.0 average (28.5 offense, 27.5 defense)
7. Sun Belt: -3.2 average (24.9 offense, 28.1 defense)
8. Conference USA: -8.7 average (25.0 offense, 33.7 defense)
9. Mountain West: -10.3 average (20.1 offense, 30.3 defense)
10. MAC: -12.0 average (23.6 offense, 35.5 defense)

Nine of the Big 12’s 10 teams have risen in the rankings since the start of the season. Kansas has risen by 51 spots, and five other teams have risen by double digits. The SEC is doing fine overall — seven of the top 17 teams, only one outside the top 60 — but its averages are sliding a bit because of drops from teams like Texas A&M, and the Big 12 has damn near reeled it in for the top spot.

Meanwhile, as mentioned above, the Pac-12 has jumped the ACC into fourth place overall. The top three conferences still have some distance on everyone else, but it has been a lovely bounceback year to date out west.

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Texas Longhorns’ Quinn Ewers knocked out of game vs. No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide in first quarter

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Texas’ Quinn Ewers will not return to Saturday’s game against No. 1 Alabama after the freshman quarterback left with an apparent left shoulder injury after being driven into the ground by the Crimson Tide’s Dallas Turner.

Ewers was taken to the locker room for an X-ray after the injury in the first quarter, sources told ESPN’s Pete Thamel. He was wearing street clothes when he returned to the sideline in the second half.

Turner was flagged for roughing the passer after landing on Ewers on the first-quarter play, with the official saying it was because he drove Ewers into the turf.

Ewers immediately grabbed his left shoulder after the hit and stayed down on the field while special assistant to the head coach Gary Patterson and trainers attended to him. After going to the sideline, Ewers went to the medical tent before then heading to the locker room with a towel over his head.

He had kept Alabama on its heels, going 9-of-12 for 134 yards, and had just completed a 46-yard pass to Xavier Worthy to the Alabama 1-yard line on the previous play.

Hudson Card relieved Ewers, and Bijan Robinson scored two plays later to tie the score at 10-10 on the first play of the second quarter.

Ewers, a highly touted transfer from Ohio State, made his first collegiate start last week against Louisiana-Monroe, going 16-of-24 for 225 yards and two touchdowns and one interception in a 52-10 win.

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Texas Longhorns coach Steve Sarkisian says Alabama’s Nick Saban ‘saved my career’

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AUSTIN, Texas — Steve Sarkisian hasn’t forgotten, and he won’t forget.

There’s no way he could, especially not this week with Nick Saban and the No. 1 Crimson Tide coming to town.

To most in the college football world, Saban is the guy who has led Alabama to a staggering six national championships, the guy who has transcended college football in myriad different ways and the guy who has built a dynasty the likes of which the sport may not see again any time soon.

But for Sarkisian, Saban is, simply, the guy who “saved my career.”

As big a game as it will be for Texas when Alabama visits DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium on Saturday — and as big a game as it is for Sarkisian to show that the Longhorns are on the right trajectory after suffering through a losing season in his first year at the helm — he says he will forever be indebted to his old boss.

“I’ve said this numerous times, but I would not be the head coach at Texas if it weren’t for Nick Saban,” Sarkisian told ESPN. “He gave me a chance when I had a hard time getting an interview, never mind a job. There were days that I thought, ‘Man, I’m never going to be a head coach again. I’m never going to be an offensive coordinator again. I’m never going to get another job.’

“But Coach Saban took a chance on me when I needed somebody to believe in me again.”

Sarkisian’s issues with alcohol have been well chronicled and led to his firing at USC five games into the 2015 season when then-athletic director Pat Haden said Sarkisian’s “conduct did not meet USC’s standards” and that Sarkisian was “not healthy.” Sarkisian has talked openly about his alcoholism and says he hasn’t held anything back from his players at Texas.

“I’m really transparent with my players. I’m really open. I’m really honest,” Sarkisian said. “I share my story about where I was in my career at 33 or 34 years old as head coach at the University of Washington, then being fired publicly on national television at USC and then going to a treatment facility for 30 days.”

Sarkisian needed a chance to rebuild his career, and there was no better place to do that than at Alabama under Saban, who has helped to resurrect more than a few coaches’ prospects.

“Sark is the one who did the work,” Saban told ESPN. “We supported him and made sure there were the right resources and people in place to help him, as we have with many others. But, listen, he saved his own career by doing a great job for us and rehabbing himself professionally, and I’m not just talking about personally, but professionally in a really, really positive way that impacted our program greatly and helped us be successful here.”

Saban actually took two chances on Sarkisian, whose Longhorns opened the season with a 52-10 victory over Louisiana-Monroe. The first came when Saban hired Sarkisian as an offensive analyst just before the start of the 2016 season, which was a complete surprise to Sarkisian. In fact, he had already committed to being a part of Fox’s broadcast team that season and had no plans (or opportunities) to coach.

He was on Alabama’s campus that summer as part of his own mini-tour where he spent time with the Jacksonville Jaguars, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons on the NFL side and Florida and Alabama on the college side.

Tuscaloosa just happened to be his final stop.

“I was spending three to five days at every spot, just trying to tap into where my friends were coaching and try to stay connected to the game,” Sarkisian said. “I’d never had an August where I wasn’t in training camp.” One of the main reasons he went to Alabama at all was to reconnect with old pal Lane Kiffin, the Tide’s offensive coordinator. They were together at USC as co-offensive coordinators under Pete Carroll and have remained close.

During Sarkisian’s visit to Alabama, Saban had Sarkisian watching tape and drawing up plays on the whiteboard.

“Every day, it was like, ‘Watch this, watch that and tell me what you think of this, what you think of that,'” Sarkisian recounted. “Coach Saban doesn’t miss anything. He’s always picking your brain.”

Ultimately, Sarkisian said it was Kiffin who was “kind of the champion behind a lot of it” and tossed out the idea of joining Alabama’s staff as an analyst. Sure enough, Saban offered him a position, but Sarkisian was unsure if he wanted to take it.

“I went back and forth and back and forth and agreed to take the job at Alabama, and it’s one of the best decisions I’ve ever made,” Sarkisian said.

Little did he know that he would be calling plays in the national championship game later that season after Saban parted ways with Kiffin following a 24-7 win over Washington in the College Football Playoff semifinals. Kiffin had planned to stay on for the championship game after agreeing to take the Florida Atlantic head job, but Saban had other ideas after seeing the Tide struggle on offense in the win over the Huskies.

“Definitely one of the more unique experiences of my career,” Sarkisian said of the 35-31 national championship game loss to Clemson.

Sarkisian had already been hired as Kiffin’s successor, but his first stint as Alabama’s offensive coordinator lasted less than two months. He left Feb. 7 to be the Falcons’ offensive coordinator, replacing Kyle Shanahan, who was named the San Francisco 49ers’ head coach. But after two years with Atlanta, Sarkisian was fired as part of a shakeup on the Falcons’ staff.

Saban admittedly wasn’t pleased Sarkisian bolted so quickly, but took a second chance on him after Mike Locksley left to take the Maryland head-coaching job following the 2018 season and then Dan Enos left abruptly to be Miami’s offensive coordinator. Sarkisian was all set to stay in the NFL and take a job as the Arizona Cardinals’ offensive coordinator when Saban called again.

“In my mind, I was staying in the NFL, but had to take a step back and look at myself and say, ‘You know what? Here’s a man that offered me a job when no one even wanted to interview me,'” Sarkisian said. “‘Here’s a man that entrusted me to call a national championship game when I had been an analyst all year long. Here’s a man that hired me as offensive coordinator and I left a few months later … and he’s still calling me to come back?’

“I felt like at that time I owed him. He extended me an olive branch, and I don’t know how much I really appreciated that and how much I acknowledged that.”

Under Sarkisian’s tutelage, Alabama’s offense put up record-setting numbers. The Tide averaged 47.2 points per game in 2019, second only to national champion LSU.

After that season, Sarkisian turned down head-coaching opportunities at Colorado and Mississippi State to stay at Alabama.

“I thought to myself, ‘You know, I think there’s a better job out there for me, and I’ve got unfinished business,'” Sarkisian said. “We didn’t win a national championship. We were good enough. We were talented enough. I didn’t do a good enough job. It was the right thing for me, for the program and for Coach Saban to stay another year.”

Sarkisian became an even hotter commodity in 2020 as the Crimson Tide rolled through the season unbeaten on their way to a national championship, and did so while playing an all-SEC schedule during the COVID-impacted regular season. The Tide again finished second nationally in scoring offense (48.5 points per game) with first-year full-time quarterback Mac Jones playing his way into being an NFL first-round draft pick and receiver DeVonta Smith winning the Heisman Trophy. They scored more than 40 points in 10 straight games.

As the College Football Playoff approached, Sarkisian turned down an opportunity to interview for the Auburn head-coaching job.

“There were a couple of opportunities, but they weren’t the right ones for me,” Sarkisian said. “But then Texas came … very late.”

And very quickly.

Texas announced Sarkisian’s hiring Jan. 2, 2021, about five hours after announcing that Tom Herman was out as coach.

“Then, it felt right,” Sarkisian said. “We were going to play for a national title, and I felt like I fulfilled what I owed to Coach Saban. Plus, it was Texas.”

Saban’s Alabama program has been something of a haven for coaches looking for second chances, whether they were fired at their previous stops for not winning enough or for other reasons. Saban said the ones who have received second chances all had one thing in common.

They were committed to helping themselves.

“I’ve given several people chances, and they’ve all done really, really well, whether it was Lane, who had lots of baggage, or Mike Locksley, who had a negative past, and then Sark,” Saban said. “I think people learn a lot sometimes when things go badly, and it makes them aware that there are some changes that need to be made.

“It wasn’t because I told them. They did it themselves, did a great job here and earned their opportunities.”

Texas will have to earn its way back to national relevance after going 12 straight years without as much as a conference championship. The Longhorns have had almost as many head coaches (four) as they’ve had winning seasons (six) over the last decade. Sarkisian knows what the pinnacle of college football looks like. He’s seen it up close.

“It’s been Alabama for the last decade and a half,” Sarkisian said. “And at the end of day, we should also be one of those teams at the pinnacle, and that’s what we’re striving to do.”

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