Texas coach Steve Sarkisian knows the college football world is focused on the Longhorns facing No. 1 Alabama on Saturday, with two of the sport’s biggest brand names facing off for just the 10th time in history.
But Sarkisian also is cautioning his team not to get too distracted by all the attention.
The Longhorns are 19-point underdogs at Caesars Sportsbook and are likely to close with their longest odds to win at home since the 1978 FBS/FCS split, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
Still, it’s a huge opportunity to see how Sarkisian’s progress stacks up against his old boss Nick Saban.
“It’s one game, you know?” Sarkisian said Monday. “It’s a chance for us to do what we love to do. I think one of the biggest mistakes people make is [thinking] this is going to be the game that’s going to define our program.
“It might, it might not. I’m not that concerned about it. I’m more concerned about just the way we play the game.”
Sarkisian said that his goal is to play for a Big 12 championship. While the Crimson Tide will be a future SEC opponent, Saturday’s matchup is a nonconference game for now, and Sarkisian said he’s focused on what he can control.
“All along, my goal is to be in Dallas on December 3,” he said. “This game has no impact on that. … I want to play really well. I want to make sure that our guys play our style of football, our brand of football and do it the way I know we’re capable of doing it.”
Sarkisian, who spent three seasons as an assistant at Alabama, was asked how Saturday’s game against Saban compares to facing another former boss in Pete Carroll in 2009, when Sarkisian’s Washington team upset then-No. 3 USC 16-13.
“Very similar scenario,” Sarkisian said. “I worked for Pete Carroll for seven years and had a great respect for what he did and what we were able to do in our time there. I think it was buying into the idea of what the game plan was, and where we needed to be from a psyche standpoint.”
Sarkisian knows the psyche he needs against a dominant Alabama program, and laughed remembering how intense working for Saban was, although he recalled Lane Kiffin getting the brunt of it.
“Lane used to get it pretty good. I don’t mind saying that,” Sarkisian laughed. “Lane’s been a good friend of mine. There’s a couple I vividly remember. I was kind of in the press box looking down and there was a lot of [wild gestures] going on.
“I got it too. I think that shaped us. But part of it is, if [Saban] is yelling at you, you probably didn’t reach an expectation or a standard of what he was expecting of you. And if you’re a guy like me, that’s what drives you ultimately.”
Texas will be facing Alabama for the first time since the 2010 national championship game after the 2009 season. This will be their first regular-season matchup since 1922, and Texas is 7-1-1 all-time against the Tide, which is the best winning percentage (.833) among teams that have played them at least five times.
Sarkisian said he wasn’t sure where he was during that 2010 championship game, but he echoed a frequent refrain from Longhorn fans — one that will be analyzed quite a bit this week: what might have been if former Texas quarterback Colt McCoy had not been hurt on the fifth snap of a 37-21 loss.
“I think we all wish, if Colt was in the game, what would have happened?” he said.
MIRAMAR BEACH, Fla. — When presented with two choices — one sensible and exciting and one completely idiotic — the debate shouldn’t last long. The idiotic choice should be punted and the sensible, exciting idea should be adopted.
Once the choices were narrowed to two, the discussion about the SEC’s potential regular-season scheduling options once Oklahoma and Texas join the league (in 2025 at the latest) should have taken about five seconds. Yet SEC athletic directors are still debating which model is best after two days of discussions. In any profession, it’s always possible to get so deep in the weeds that the obvious decision doesn’t seem so obvious. That’s what’s happening on the shore of the Gulf of Mexico this week.
SEC presidents and chancellors will join the ADs Thursday. These people have a lot more to worry about. So hopefully they are less likely to get lost in the minutiae. And hopefully, they’ll make the correct decision.
I bet if I lay out the options without identifying which is the good one and which is the stupid one you’ll pick the better one without blinking. Let’s try it.
• One option would be a divisionless eight-game conference schedule that features one fixed opponent for each school while rotating the other seven games throughout the remainder of the conference’s (soon-to-be) 16-team membership. This plan would protect Alabama–Auburn (the Iron Bowl) but not Auburn-Georgia (The Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry) or Alabama-Tennessee (The Third Saturday In October). Florida and Georgia would play annually, but Florida and Tennessee would not. Oklahoma and Texas would play annually. Texas and Texas A&M would not.
• The other option is a divisionless nine-game conference schedule that features three fixed opponents for each school while rotating the other six games through the remainder of the conference. This would allow Alabama-Auburn, Auburn-Georgia, Alabama-Tennessee, Oklahoma-Texas and Texas-Texas A&M to be played annually. It also might stoke the fires of a few emerging rivalries such as LSU-Texas A&M. It could potentially create new ones as well. For example, it’s a little weird that Arkansas and Oklahoma — flagship universities in bordering states — have played only 15 times since 1899 and only three times since 1978. Perhaps each could be part of the other’s trio.
Did you spot the dumb one? Of course you did. It’s the 1-7 model. If a bunch of allegedly intelligent people got together and decided that Texas and Texas A&M — or Georgia and Auburn or Alabama and Tennessee — shouldn’t play annually when a reasonable possibility exists, then whoever voted to adopt that model should find a new line of work. They lack the common sense to sell football games for a living, and that calls into question their decision-making in every other matter as well. The Big Ten is likely about to change its scheduling model in the near future. Can you imagine that league’s leaders saying “We don’t need Michigan and Michigan State to play EVERY year?” Of course not.
The 3-6 model is the only logical choice. So why is anyone fighting it?
The resistance is two-fold. Some schools would rather take the short view than make a choice that ultimately will sell more season-ticket packages on their campus and make them more money through the SEC’s future media rights deals.
Part of the opposition comes from leaders at certain schools who fear the zero-sum nature of adding a conference game. That means half the league is guaranteed one more loss per season. With nonconference games, those schools at the bottom of the standings can try to schedule their way to six wins and a bowl game in a mostly empty stadium in a medium-sized city. Another conference game means those schools have to work that much harder to get to .500. These schools are so afraid their teams won’t be quite mediocre enough that they’re trying to block a model that embraces progress and tradition all at once.
But that isn’t the only loser thinking standing in the way of you getting better, with more interesting games to watch on television during the regular season. There is a fear among a few in the league that if the College Football Playoff doesn’t expand, moving to nine conference games could hurt the SEC’s chances to keep producing national champs. This is silly. First, the odds of the CFP staying at four are slim because the only league that even likes four is the SEC. An early expansion was blocked in part because the SEC’s acquisition of Oklahoma and Texas freaked out the leaders of a few other leagues, but after a cooling-off period, those leagues will come back to the same place they were before the Oklahoma and Texas news broke. Most of them need expansion. And if you’ve been reading this space, you know that the SEC either wants an eight-best format or a 12-team format with six automatic qualifying spots for conference champs. Either one would allow plenty of room for SEC programs with a few schedule blemishes to make the field. And in the unlikely event the CFP stays at four beyond the 2025 season, a nine-game schedule probably wouldn’t reduce the SEC’s odds of producing a national champion in most years. If anything, it probably would increase the likelihood of a two-loss team getting admitted to a four-team system — which has yet to happen in the eight-season history of the CFP.
The good news on this front is the SEC doesn’t have to make a decision this week. It can push this for a little longer and wait to see if some clarity emerges on the next CFP format. The new schedule format needs to be in place when Oklahoma and Texas arrive. That’s 2025 at the latest. We’ll refrain from any speculation as to whether those two could buy their way out of the Big 12 early; so far, there has been no indication they can. But the SEC also might want to have the new format ready for 2024, when the league’s new media rights deal with ESPN begins. Doing so probably would require a decision on a model by late 2022 or early 2023. Pushing until 2025 would buy another year. “We get to set our own timetable here,” SEC commissioner Greg Sankey said Wednesday.
For the schools that crave bowl eligibility, it would be wise to remember that the schools make the NCAA’s rules. So these schools could simply lobby to change the rule for bowl eligibility. They’d likely find plenty of allies in the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and Pac-12. The Group of 5 leagues would understandably be dead set against lowering the standard for bowl eligibility. But answer this question honestly: Which Boca Raton Bowl would you rather watch while wrapping presents/casually betting second-half totals? Do you want Western Kentucky–Appalachian State or Mississippi State–Minnesota?
And please, don’t even start with the arguments about the need for bowls to be a reward for a great season. That was true when there were eight bowls. It’s laughable when there are more than 40. They are television inventory for our entertainment, and our viewing habits suggest that adding a few more could make some more coin for ESPN.
The supporters of the 3-6 model also likely would extend an olive branch to those schools by eliminating the requirement to book at least one Power 5 school in the nonconference schedule. So Georgia could keep scheduling Georgia Tech annually and a Clemson/Florida State type in most years — which it would even with a nine-game SEC schedule — and Arkansas could schedule Rice instead of Oklahoma State or Notre Dame. I don’t think that would make Arkansas fans happy. Nor do I think it would make them buy more tickets. But it would make 5-7 a lot less likely. (What’s odd about all this is that the schedules for Arkansas and Mississippi State would usually be easier without being in the meat grinder that is the current SEC West.)
For years, fans of Big 12, Big Ten and Pac-12 schools have surmised that the SEC would always stick at eight conference games to minimize the possibility of losses for CFP purposes. The group within the SEC that wants to move to nine conference games doesn’t care about any outside pressure to homogenize scheduling models across conferences. This is market-driven. The current model — eight conference games within two seven-team divisions and one permanent crossover opponent — has caused home schedules to grow stale. That has produced lower season ticket sales at some schools and no-shows at places that still sell all their season tickets. (No-shows eventually turn into no-sales.) Texas A&M has been in the league for 10 seasons and played football at Georgia once. The Bulldogs still haven’t played an SEC game at Kyle Field.
What’s interesting is the staleness of the schedule was a result of the SEC trying too hard to protect tradition. Keeping Alabama-Tennessee an annual game was the main reason both cross-divisional opponents didn’t rotate each year. Now the SEC has a chance to protect that tradition and create more variety.
If its school leaders can get out of their own way and make the obvious choice.
(Photo of Alabama quarterback Bryce Young scrambling for a first down against Tennessee: Gary Cosby Jr. / USA Today)
Alabama coach Nick Saban singled out Texas A&M for “buying” its top-ranked signing class and threw a spotlight on the unintended effect of name, image and likeness rights on recruiting during an event with local business leaders Wednesday night in Birmingham.
“I mean, we were second in recruiting last year,” Saban told the audience. “A&M was first. A&M bought every player on their team — made a deal for name, image, likeness. We didn’t buy one player, all right? But I don’t know if we’re gonna be able to sustain that in the future because more and more people are doing it. It’s tough.”
Saban said Alabama players made $3 million “doing it the right way” last year and that only 25 players were able to leverage NIL opportunities.
He isn’t the first coach to call out the Aggies by name. In February, Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin quipped, “Texas A&M was going to incur a luxury tax in how much they paid for their signing class.”
That prompted a stern response from Texas A&M coach Jimbo Fisher, a former Saban assistant, during his signing day news conference the following day when he said that coaches spreading rumors about deals promised to recruits were “clown acts” and “irresponsible as hell.”
The problem with NIL, Saban said Wednesday, is “coaches trying to create an advantage for themselves.”
Saban said coaches know how much money is available from their school’s collective — a group of program supporters who pool their resources to offer deals to athletes — and “how much he can promise every player.”
“That’s not what it was supposed to be,” he said. “That’s what it’s become. And that’s the problem in college athletics right now. Now every player is saying, ‘Well, what am I going to get?'”
Saban said people blame the NCAA, “But in defense of the NCAA, we are where we are because of the litigation.”
Last summer, the Supreme Court upheld a lower court ruling that said limiting education-related benefits violated antitrust laws. In the wake of that decision, the NCAA adopted rules that were far less restrictive, including allowing athletes to profit from their name, image and likeness.
NCAA rules prohibit a school or its employees only from paying athletes directly for their NIL rights.
“If the NCAA doesn’t get some protection from litigation, whether we gotta get an antitrust or whatever it is, from a federal government standpoint, this is not going to change because they cannot enforce their rules,” Saban said. “Just like [Alabama basketball coach Nate Oats] said, we have a rule right now that says you cannot use name, image, likeness to entice a player to come to your school.
“Hell, read about it in the paper. I mean, Jackson State paid a guy $1 million last year that was a really good Division I player to come to the school. It was in the paper, and they bragged about it. Nobody did anything about it. I mean, these guys at Miami that are going to play basketball there for $400,000, it’s in the newspaper. The guy tells you how he’s doing it.”
The Jackson State player Saban was referring to is Travis Hunter, a five-star prospect who flipped his commitment from Florida State and signed with the HBCU program during the early signing period in December. Jackson State coach Deion Sanders denied the rumor that Hunter had been offered more than $1 million.
Sanders responded strongly to Saban’s comments Wednesday night, tweeting: “You best believe I will address that LIE Coach SABAN told tomorrow. I was & awakened by my son @ShedeurSanders that sent me the article stating that WE PAYED @TravisHunterJr a Million to play at @GoJSUTigersFB! We as a PEOPLE don’t have to pay our PEOPLE to play with our PEOPLE.”
Saban’s comments on Miami referred to former Kansas State men’s basketball player Nijel Pack, who transferred to the Hurricanes in April. Shortly after, it was announced that he signed a two-year, $400,000 NIL deal with Florida-based health tech company LifeWallet.
Saban said he has told players that they will all get the same opportunities from Alabama’s collective but made the distinction that, “You can go earn however much you want.”
“I tell the recruits the same thing: Our job is not to buy you to come to school here,” he said. “And I don’t know how you manage your locker room. And I don’t know if this is a sustainable model.”
Alabama coach Nick Saban singled out Texas A&M for “buying” its top-ranked signing class and threw a spotlight on the unintended effect of name, image and likeness rights on recruiting during an event with local business leaders Wednesday night in Birmingham.
“I mean, we were second in recruiting last year,” Saban told the audience. “A&M was first. A&M bought every player on their team — made a deal for name, image, likeness. We didn’t buy one player. All right? But I don’t know if we’re gonna be able to sustain that in the future because more and more people are doing it. It’s tough.”
Saban said Alabama players made $3 million “doing it the right way” last year and that only 25 players were able to leverage NIL opportunities.
Saban wasn’t the first coach to call out the Aggies by name. In February, Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin quipped that, “Texas A&M was going to incur a luxury tax in how much they paid for their signing class.”
That prompted a stern response from Texas A&M coach Jimbo Fisher, a former Saban assistant, during his signing day news conference the following day when he said that coaches spreading rumors about deals promised to recruits were “clown acts” and “irresponsible as hell.”
The problem with NIL, Saban said on Wednesday, is “coaches trying to create an advantage for themselves.”
Saban said coaches know how much money is available from their school’s collective — a group of program supporters who pool their resources to offer deals to athletes — and “how much he can promise every player.”
“That’s not what it was supposed to be,” he said. “That’s what it’s become. And that’s the problem in colleagues athletics right now. Now every player is saying, ‘Well, what am I going to get?”
Saban said people blame the NCAA, “But in defense of the NCAA, we are where we are because of the litigation.”
Last summer, the Supreme Court upheld a lower court ruling that said limiting education-related benefits violated antitrust laws. In the wake of that decision, the NCAA adopted rules that were far less restrictive, including allowing athletes to profit from their name, image and likeness.
NCAA rules prohibit a school or its employees only from paying athletes directly for their NIL rights.
“If the NCAA doesn’t get some protection from litigation, whether we gotta get an antitrust or whatever it is, from a federal government standpoint, this is not going to change because they cannot enforce their rules,” Saban said. “Just like [Alabama basketball coach Nate Oats] said, we have a rule right now that says you cannot use name, image, likeness, to entice a player to come to your school. Hell, read about it in the paper. I mean, Jackson State paid a guy $1 million dollars last year that was a really good Division I player to come to the school. It was in the paper and they bragged about it. Nobody did anything about it. I mean, these guys at Miami that are going to play basketball there for $400,000, it’s in the newspaper. The guy tells you how he’s doing it.”
The Jackson State player Saban was referring to is Travis Hunter, a five-star prospect who flipped his commitment from Florida State and signed with the HBCU program during the early signing period in December. Jackson State coach Deion Sanders denied the rumor that Hunter had been offered more than $1 million.
Sanders responded strongly to Saban’s comments on Wednesday night, writing on Twitter: “You best believe I will address that LIE Coach SABAN told tomorrow. I was & awakened by my son @ShedeurSanders that sent me the article stating that WE PAYED @TravisHunterJr a Million to play at @GoJSUTigersFB! We as a PEOPLE don’t have to pay our PEOPLE to play with our PEOPLE.”
Saban’s comments on Miami referred to former Kansas State men’s basketball player Nijel Pack, who transferred to the Hurricanes in April. Shortly after, it was announced that he signed a two-year, $400,000 NIL deal with Florida-based health tech company LifeWallet.
Saban said he has told players that they’ll all get the same opportunities from Alabama’s collective but made the distinction that, “You can go earn however much you want.”
“I tell the recruits the same thing: Our job is not to buy you to come to school here,” he said. “And I don’t know how you manage your locker room. And I don’t know if this is a sustainable model.”
The jet lag from Sunday’s flight home from the 2022 NFL draft in Las Vegas has barely worn off, but I’m already digging in on the 2023 class. I’m that excited about this group. After only one quarterback was selected in the first 73 picks this year, we could see a handful in the first round next April. There are also truly special prospects on the defensive side of the ball, and I think we could see five-plus receivers in Round 1 yet again. So let’s project the early scope of the first round.
Now, this is an extremely early prediction. I haven’t spent much time with the 2023 class’ tape yet, and a lot of this is based on what I’ve seen while watching prospects in person over the past two seasons and early buzz around the league. Expect big changes between now and next April. My 2022 way-too-early mock, for example, featured 10 prospects who ultimately were first-rounders and predicted five top-10 picks — but eight players listed ultimately didn’t enter the draft, and 14 others weren’t selected in Round 1. It’s still 12 months out, and we have a full college season and a long pre-draft process ahead.
Then there is the draft order, which I did not decide. We opted to project the order using the inverse of Super Bowl odds from Caesars Sportsbook, though we broke some ties and tweaked the end of the order to ensure seven teams from each conference in the playoffs. That puts Houston on the clock to get things going in Round 1.
Note: Underclassmen are noted with an asterisk. Traded picks are shown below as well.
C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State*
The Texans believe in quarterback Davis Mills, but if they actually end up picking No. 1 next April, something went terribly awry for Mills during his sophomore season. Stroud has a big arm, completing 71.9% of his passes for 4,435 yards, 44 touchdowns and just six interceptions in 2021. The third-year sophomore has only 12 career starts, though, so all eyes will be on him this season.
Bryce Young, QB, Alabama*
Detroit wisely focused on the rest of its roster last week, but it will likely have to find its franchise quarterback in 2023 and has a prime chance to do so at No. 2 with Young still on the board. A former five-star recruit, Young is only 6-foot but has solid accuracy and plenty of mobility in the pocket. And he clearly has chemistry with receiver Jameson Williams, one of the Lions’ first-round picks this year, considering nearly a third of Young’s 4,872 passing yards in 2021 went Williams’ way. Jared Goff’s dead money dips to just $10 million next offseason, making the Lions’ QB easier to move on from.
Will Anderson Jr., DE, Alabama*
Anderson is probably the best player in the 2023 draft class and is here at No. 3 only because the teams picking at Nos. 1 and 2 need quarterbacks. The 6-foot-4, 243-pounder is a special player with elite traits and great burst to the quarterback. He led the nation in sacks (17.5), tackles for loss (34.5) and pressures (79) last year. Pairing Anderson with Jermaine Johnson II (a first-rounder this year) could give New York one of the least expensive yet best overall edge tandems in the NFL.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State*
If you don’t know the name yet, go watch some Rose Bowl highlights. Smith-Njigba caught 15 passes for 347 yards (a bowl game record) and three touchdowns in Ohio State’s win against Utah — putting him over 1,600 receiving yards for the season. It’s very possible he is a better prospect than Garrett Wilson or Chris Olave, who both just went in the top 11 picks. The Jags signed Christian Kirk and Zay Jones in March, but they still need a true WR1 for Trevor Lawrence. JSN can be that guy.
Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia*
Another Georgia defender? The 6-foot-3, 310-pounder is extremely disruptive and would help shore up Atlanta’s run defense while providing a pass-rush spark from the interior. And yes, Grady Jarrett just signed an extension, but he will be 30 years old when the draft comes back around. Carter is the best player available here and a difference-maker.
As for quarterback, it’s a very possible direction for the Falcons. But Stroud and Young are off the board, and I get the sense that they would like to develop Desmond Ridder and give him a chance if there isn’t another clear and obvious upgrade on the table.
Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida*
The Panthers, however, should start scouting the 2023 signal-callers. I’m not so sure they view Matt Corral as a long-term option, and Sam Darnold will be off the books after this season. Plus, Carolina could have a new regime in place, especially if it’s picking this early again. Now, Richardson is a huge projection — the 6-foot-4, 236-pound passer played in just eight games and started once last year — and has some turnover issues. But he’s extremely talented and poised for a breakout season in his first as a full-time starter.
Jordan Addison, WR, Pittsburgh*
Addison entered the transfer portal, so where he’ll be suiting up this season is still up in the air. He was among the best receivers in college football last season with 100 catches for 1,593 yards and 17 trips to the end zone. The Bears opted to wait until Round 3 to draft a receiver (Velus Jones Jr.) and still need a legitimate outside starter opposite Darnell Mooney.
Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
The Giants didn’t pick up Daniel Jones’ fifth-year option, which leaves the QB seat up for grabs next season. Levis needs to find more consistency, but he has a live arm and a big 6-foot-3, 232-pound frame. He has thrived in the quick game at Kentucky, with a lot of run-pass options and screen-type stuff, but there are some Josh Allen-like traits here for new Giants coach Brian Daboll. Oh, and Levis connected with receiver Wan’Dale Robinson — whom the Giants drafted in Round 2 this year — 104 times last season.
play
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Mel Kiper Jr. breaks down which players teams should keep their eye on for the 2023 NFL draft.
Tyler Van Dyke, QB, Miami*
Van Dyke didn’t consistently play like a first-rounder in nine starts last season, but the 6-foot-4, 224-pounder has the talent of a future franchise passer. The third-year sophomore just needs to take the next step this year. Seattle GM John Schneider and coach Pete Carroll seem to still legitimately like Drew Lock’s potential as an NFL starter, but if the Seahawks have another disappointing season and another top-10 pick, they could be in the market for an upgrade.
Eli Ricks, CB, Alabama*
After a four-interception freshman year at LSU, Ricks missed most of 2021 with an injured shoulder and then transferred to Alabama. He’s a smooth press corner who can take away an opponent’s No. 1 receiver. The Commanders’ top two corners — William Jackson III and Kendall Fuller — are both under contract for only two more years, and the team’s pass defense has struggled, so adding a playmaker on the outside makes a lot of sense. One more note here: Ricks was arrested on Monday for speeding and possession of marijuana.
Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State*
Only the Dolphins had a worse pass block win rate than the Steelers last season (48.8%), and I don’t think Pittsburgh did enough to fix the line. When it decides to turn the offense’s keys over to new quarterback Kenny Pickett, the protection has to be there. Johnson has 13 career starts (all at right guard) and allowed only one sack last season. He will slide outside to left tackle this year.
Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia*
I thought Philadelphia might look at a cornerback in Round 1 this year, but the long-term spot opposite Darius Slay remains open — and Slay is currently primed to hit free agency in 2024. Ringo broke up eight passes and picked off two in 2021 as part of the dominant Bulldogs defense. One of those interceptions was a memorable one in the College Football Playoff national title game.
Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern*
Skoronski already has a lot of experience (21 starts), and the 6-foot-4, 294-pound lineman has the makings of a future franchise tackle, as long as he tacks on more weight. Las Vegas needs another bookend for the line opposite Kolton Miller.
Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson*
The Vikings had one of the worst run defenses in the NFL last season and didn’t draft a defensive tackle this year, and Dalvin Tomlinson is entering the final year of his contract. Bresee suffered a torn ACL in September, but he’s primed to return for a big 2022 campaign.
Noah Sewell, ILB, Oregon*
The brother of 2021 first-rounder Penei Sewell, Noah Sewell can impact multiple areas of the game. The 6-foot-3, 251-pound linebacker had 110 tackles, four sacks and six pass breakups last season. And the Patriots are still looking for a leader in the middle of their defense.
Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson*
The Dolphins tied for fifth in sacks last season and just re-signed Emmanuel Ogbah, but Murphy would be another playmaker off the edge who can get home on opposing QBs. He has 11.5 sacks over two seasons at Clemson and looks like a future impact player at the next level.
Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame*
Mayer finished his sophomore season with 71 catches (third among tight ends) and 840 receiving yards (fourth). He has tremendous 6-foot-4, 251-pound size and good hands. The Titans would love a playmaking tight end like Mayer for quarterback Ryan Tannehill — or Malik Willis, should the Titans make that move going into 2023.
Derick Hall, DE, Auburn
Hall broke out in 2021, recording nine sacks and 13 tackles for loss in his first season as a full-time starter. Will he take another step in 2022? The Colts are coming off a 33-sack season, and while they traded for Yannick Ngakoue and should see more from Kwity Paye in his second year, you can never have enough productive pass-rushers.
Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas*
Zero running backs were taken in Round 1 this year, but I expect we’ll return to seeing at least one come off the board on Day 1 next April. After going cornerback earlier, Philly could look to spark the run game here. At 6-foot and 214 pounds, Robinson is a unique talent both as a runner and receiver. He piled up 1,127 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns last season, but he also caught 26 passes for 295 yards and four more scores. Miles Sanders is entering the final year of his current deal, and the Eagles played their best football last season when they leaned on the run.
Clark Phillips III, CB, Utah*
Phillips is already a two-year starter, and he broke up 12 passes last season. Arizona’s cornerback room has holes, and that’s before factoring in that Byron Murphy Jr. is entering the final year of his contract.
Kayshon Boutte, WR, LSU*
Everyone loved the Ravens’ 2022 draft, but remember that they traded away Marquise Brown, leaving Rashod Bateman and Devin Duvernay as their top two wide receivers. Boutte is a top-15-caliber prospect who had nine touchdown catches in six games last year before a leg injury ended his season.
Trenton Simpson, ILB, Clemson*
The Bengals drafted a pair of versatile defensive backs in the first two rounds this year, and they spent on the offensive line in free agency. If the fixes prove effective, one area they could instead look at in 2023 is linebacker. Simpson had 63 tackles and six sacks last season, and he can drop in coverage.
BJ Ojulari, DE, LSU*
We already got Houston a quarterback, so how about a high-end edge rusher for new coach Lovie Smith’s defense? I love Ojulari’s burst and bend off the edge.
Henry To’oTo’o, ILB, Alabama
The Cowboys just used a fifth-rounder on linebacker Damone Clark, who will miss 2022 because of a back injury but should be ready to roll in 2023. Even so, adding another top-flight linebacker could help free up Micah Parsons in a more versatile role in which he thrives. To’oTo’o made 106 tackles last season.
Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State*
At 6-foot-2 and 192 pounds, Porter has size on the outside and some versatility, though he has only one career interception. I like the upside of defensive backs Coby Bryant and Tariq Woolen, midround picks for Seattle this year, but the Seahawks really need a potential star to improve this pass D.
Zion Nelson, OT, Miami*
I actually had Nelson in my way-too-early mock this time last year, and he’s back again after opting to return to Miami. Nelson has 33 starts and could be the answer opposite Rashawn Slater on the Chargers’ offensive line.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama*
Gibbs was a hidden gem at Georgia Tech, and now I expect him to explode onto the national stage after transferring to Alabama. His pass-catching ability out of the backfield will get a lot of attention. Pairing Gibbs with Chase Edmonds (Myles Gaskin and Raheem Mostert are under contract for only 2022) would give Miami a very strong rushing attack.
Tony Grimes, CB, UNC*
Grimes has 6-foot-1 size and good speed, and he broke up seven passes last season. A duo of Grimes and Jeff Okudah should help turn things around for Detroit’s lackluster pass defense.
Emil Ekiyor Jr., G, Alabama
We’ll see how Green Bay’s moves at wide receiver play out; if quarterback Aaron Rodgers can’t find a reliable target this year, the Packers might be looking for a first-round pass-catcher next April. Another way to help Rodgers? Drafting Ekiyor, a versatile lineman with 28 starts under his belt.
Nolan Smith, OLB, Georgia
The 6-foot-3, 235-pound defender’s sack production isn’t overwhelming (3.5 in 2021 and 8.5 over three seasons), but he forced three fumbles last year and has a lot of upside. I’m excited to see what he can do in 2022 with much of the Georgia defense heading to the NFL. Smith could help the Chiefs keep the AFC West’s talented quarterbacks in check.
Josh Downs, WR, UNC*
Downs is an explosive route runner who caught 101 passes for 1,335 yards last season and excelled after the catch. He’d be dangerous in Tampa Bay’s offense. Also keep an eye on the QB situation here; the Buccaneers could potentially turn to Kyle Trask or sign a free agent if Tom Brady retires after the 2022 season, but they could also focus on the draft class for a replacement.
Marvin Mims, WR, Oklahoma*
Another year, another loaded wide receiver class. Mims is undersized at 5-foot-11 and 177 pounds, and he hasn’t caught more than 37 passes in a season. But his 22.0 yards per reception ranked third in the nation last season, and he’d be yet another target for quarterback Josh Allen.
Here we go: Two weeks (OK, 15 days) until the start of the 2022 NFL draft.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are on the clock, of course, but they’re not the most interesting team in this draft. There are a whopping eight teams with two first-round picks — a record if it shakes out that way on April 28 — including Super Bowl contenders such as the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs. There are a lot of ways Round 1 could go, especially with the questions (and concerns) around the quarterback class.
Let’s get into my annual two-round mock draft, projecting Picks 1-64. I have four quarterbacks and 12 wide receivers here, plus four edge defenders in the top seven picks. I have interesting landing spots for the offensive tackles. And I have one trade for a team moving back into Round 1 to get a critical need — and leaping another franchise that needs that position.
I’m projecting these 64 picks based on a combination of my updated rankings, team needs and what I’m hearing from execs, scouts and coaches in the league. For the second round, in particular, so much could change between now and when teams are on the clock, so I’m using my Big Board as a guide on value.
If you want to go deeper than the first two rounds, check out Jordan Reid’s seven-round mock. And you can catch the one-hour SportsCenter Special on Wednesday breaking down these picks at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN2 and ESPN+.
Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan
There’s really no need to overthink things here. Hutchinson is the best prospect in this class — an edge rusher who could average 12 sacks a year for a decade — and he plays a premier position. He could play as a stand-up outside linebacker or hand-in-the-dirt end for the Jaguars, meeting quarterbacks in the backfield with 2019 first-rounder Josh Allen.
Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
Can I interest you in a 6-foot-3 corner with long arms and 4.41 40-yard dash speed who didn’t allow a single touchdown in coverage in college? That’s Gardner. The Lions have several needs and would likely jump at Aidan Hutchinson if he somehow fell here. But if they select Gardner and get something out of Jeff Okudah, the No. 3 overall pick in the 2020 draft who has played just 10 games in two seasons, they could have a much-improved secondary.
Travon Walker, DE, Georgia
I don’t think anyone outside the organization really knows what the Texans will do in Round 1. For this mock, I’m trying to think long-term with Houston, which just has to add some talent. Walker is a bit of risk in the top 10; NFL teams are betting that his physical tools will win out over his subpar college production (9.5 sacks in three seasons). Coaches want to try to maximize that upside. There is a lot of buzz on Walker going early.
Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE, Oregon
I’m not buying a Thibodeaux drop. He might be the most talented prospect in this class. The Jets have to add some juice to their pass rush, and this is the spot to do it. It’s also not out of the question that they take a receiver here — Drake London or Garrett Wilson? — because their top guy might be off the board by the time they pick at No. 10.
Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State
If the board shakes out this way, the Giants would have to be thrilled to get their pick of the top two offensive tackles. I have Ekwonu just slightly over Evan Neal, but it’s tough to go wrong with either — they are my Nos. 2 and 3 prospects in this class. Ekwonu answered every question about his pass-protection ability last season. If left tackle Andrew Thomas keeps improving, these two could form one of the NFL’s best bookend pairings.
Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
Doesn’t Carolina coach Matt Rhule have to take a swing on a quarterback here? The Panthers don’t have second- or third-round picks. Rhule will enter the season on the hot seat, and this is his chance to buy some time with a high-ceiling rookie signal-caller. Willis is going to make some mistakes, but he will be fun to watch. He might nail a perfect deep ball to Robby Anderson and then throw a pick in the red zone on the next play. But he’s going to keep getting better with more time, and Carolina does have some skill position talent to help him.
Jermaine Johnson II, DE, Florida State
The Giants can get their tackle at No. 5 and then focus on their defense, which allowed 4.7 yards per play last season (31st in the NFL). Johnson had 12 sacks last season and was one of the most impressive prospects at the Senior Bowl in January. He already has a few veteran pass-rush moves and can be an instant starter. He also played a lot of outside linebacker for the Seminoles, so he has some versatility in Wink Martindale’s defense. And if you’re keeping track, this makes four edge rushers in the top seven picks.
Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State
I’m going to stick with this prediction because … who is Marcus Mariota going to throw to next season? The Falcons just don’t have any starting-caliber receivers. Wilson can run every route and beat defenders after the catch. He could be the early favorite for rookie of the year if he lands here — he’d get a bunch of targets. Atlanta will likely be tracking the edge rushers closely, but there isn’t value at this point on my board.
play
1:45
Look back at Garrett Wilson’s college career and why he is a star in the making at WR.
Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
This is another team that ends up with an ideal scenario. Veteran left tackle Duane Brown is still unsigned, so Neal could start from Day 1. It just makes too much sense. I’m not a huge believer that Drew Lock will be Seattle’s quarterback answer for the long term, but Neal could be a stalwart on the left side for years to come.
Drake London, WR, USC
If the Jets can pull this off — a top-tier receiver here and a high-upside edge rusher at No. 4 — shouldn’t they be considered one of the most improved teams of the offseason? I like what they’ve done, and they haven’t had to break the bank. Of course, that doesn’t mean they’re going to be AFC East contenders just yet. London is a 6-foot-4 target who will dominate in the red zone and pull down 50-50 balls to boost Zach Wilson’s completion percentage.
Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
Hamilton has been dinged a little bit because of his 40 time, which was a 4.59 at the combine and a little slower at his pro day. He’s a fantastic player, but he doesn’t have rare physical tools, which means he could fall out of the top 10. I would want him on my team. At 6-foot-4, he could play multiple positions, from center fielder to box linebacker. He would make plays for a Washington defense that disappointed in 2021.
Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU
This is a great fit for both sides. The Vikings could get a corner with an elite, All-Pro ceiling and plug a hole, while Stingley could join a team with a few other former LSU stars (Justin Jefferson, Danielle Hunter, Patrick Peterson). The worry on Stingley is that his best tape is from 2019, when he starred as a true freshman. Can he return to form in the NFL — and stay healthy? That’s a risk teams will have to consider. Still, I feel better making that bet at No. 12 than if I was picking in the top five.
Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
I’m going to stick to my board here, and since my top-11 prospects have all been picked (plus Malik Willis), I’ll move on to No. 12. Cross is a superb pass-blocker who needs some refinement in the run game — because he just didn’t get the reps to do so while playing for Mike Leach. Ultimately, if the Texans are going to give Davis Mills the 2022 season to prove he’s their guy at quarterback, Mills needs a better right tackle. That could be Cross.
Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
The Ravens could go in several directions here, including offensive tackle (will Ronnie Stanley ever be the same again?) and defensive end (Calais Campbell is back, but he’s 35). When I look at this depth chart, though, I see corner depth as an issue. McDuffie has the versatility to play outside and in the slot, and he also will wrap up and bring down ball carriers in the run game. He’s physical.
Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
After last week’s trade with the Saints, the Eagles now have one fewer first-round pick, but you have to think they’ll take a receiver with one of them, right? If they’re committed to using 2022 as an evaluation year for Jalen Hurts, the best way they can evaluate him is to give him the tools to succeed. Olave had seven touchdowns out of the slot last season, but he can move outside, too, and use his 4.39 40 speed to get open. Hurts would love throwing to him and DeVonta Smith, with Dallas Goedert working the middle of the field.
Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
Speaking of the Saints, I have a hard time believing the trade with the Eagles was to take a quarterback. Why wouldn’t they try to move up higher? (Unless there’s another move to come.) It’s possible they think they are NFC contenders this season and could be put over the edge with two more starters. With that in mind, here’s a tackle who could replace Terron Armstead on the left side. Penning is a nasty, physical blocker who is ready to play immediately.
Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia
The Chargers need a right tackle, but with Trevor Penning off the board, I don’t feel great about the value here. In fact, my next tackle in this mock doesn’t go off the board until No. 42. Let’s move instead to another need for L.A. and fill it with Davis, who at 6-foot-6 and 341 pounds is used to being a hole-filler. He has unique physical tools for his size, and he makes everyone around him better because of the space he eats. This is how Brandon Staley’s defense can level up in 2022.
Nakobe Dean, ILB, Georgia
I see a massive void in the middle of the Eagles’ front seven, and we’re getting to the point in this draft in which an off-ball linebacker will be taken. I have Devin Lloyd just ahead of Dean in my rankings, but there are teams that will fall in love with Dean’s intangibles. He’s a tremendous teammate who was the leader of the national champs’ historic defense. He’s a little undersized, but he can play sideline to sideline.
Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
Even if Michael Thomas comes back healthy, the Saints should address wide receiver with one of their two first-round picks. Williams would have been in the discussion to be the No. 1 wideout in this class, but he tore his ACL in the national title game in January and could miss a little time in 2022. He could be a superstar once he’s healthy; he has explosive speed and was uncoverable for the Crimson Tide last season. ACL injuries aren’t even close to career-ending anymore, so I don’t see this as a risky pick. Williams is worth it.
play
1:32
Check out the best moments from Jameson Williams at Alabama as he gets ready for the NFL draft.
Kenny Pickett, QB, Pitt
I’d feel much more comfortable taking Pickett here than I would in the top 10. Best-case scenario is that he’s Derek Carr, and his floor is as an Andy Dalton-type, which isn’t a bad quarterback by any means. Pittsburgh can win with that. Still, those two were taken in Round 2 and didn’t have Round 1 expectations surrounding them. If Pickett falls into the Steelers’ laps here, he’d be tough to pass up. And he has a little more upside than Mitch Trubisky.
Devin Lloyd, ILB, Utah
I thought about a wide receiver and cornerback here, but Lloyd just feels like a Bill Belichick-type player. He’s always around the ball, is a great blitzer from the middle of the defense and makes plays. The Patriots allowed 4.5 yards per carry last season, which ranked 25th in the league. This fills a void with an impact player.
Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota State
There could be a run on wide receivers in the 20s, starting with the Patriots and Packers. We know Green Bay needs one after the Davante Adams trade, but I don’t think general manager Brian Gutekunst is going to force it. Watson is a riser, as teams see a 6-foot-4 receiver with 4.36 40 speed and elite measurables and think he can be a big-play threat who can grow into a better route runner. Watson averaged 20.4 yards per catch in his college career. Watson is ready to contribute for Aaron Rodgers as a rookie.
Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
Burks can be used in different roles — he even ran 19 routes out of the backfield last season — and will be dynamic after the catch. He will take screens and short passes for scores. For Arizona, this is about helping replacing Christian Kirk and getting some help for an offense that struggled when DeAndre Hopkins went down last season.
Arnold Ebiketie, DE, Penn State
McShay is getting tired of me talking up Ebiketie, but I’m a fan. I wanted to find a fit for him in Round 1. The Temple transfer really improved last season, putting up 9.5 sacks. He has a powerful lower body and knows how to use his hands. The Cowboys have to find a way to replace Randy Gregory, and Ebiketie could help. They could also target a guard or wide receiver here.
Daxton Hill, DB, Michigan
I just moved Hill way up on my Big Board. NFL teams love his versatility — he played more than 550 snaps at nickelback in 2021 — and think he could play both corner and safety. He might be a slot corner if he ends up in Buffalo, which lost Levi Wallace in free agency and has Tre’Davious White returning from an ACL tear. Andrew Booth Jr. (Clemson) and Kyler Gordon (Washington) are two other corners to keep an eye on. The Bills have one of the best rosters in the league.
Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State
The Titans need to get faster at receiver next to A.J. Brown. That’s not Robert Woods’ game. Dotson, who ran a 4.43 40 at the combine, caught 91 passes last season, 33 coming from the slot. He would give Ryan Tannehill more easy throws because he can scoot after the catch. Tennessee could also target the best offensive lineman available with this pick. On my board, that would be center Tyler Linderbaum (Iowa), and he could play some guard.
Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia
The Bucs are another team that could take a guard in Round 1, but I see a fit with Wyatt, who could take Ndamukong Suh’s spot next to Vita Vea. Wyatt played mostly as a 3-technique tackle for the Bulldogs, but he could play end in a 3-4 defense, too. He wasn’t a super productive pass-rusher (2.5 sacks last season), but he has the physical tools that coordinators will want to mold. Cornerback could be a possibility for Tampa Bay as well.
Zion Johnson, G/C, Boston College
Johnson’s positional flex is impressive to teams, as he dominated as a guard last season — he didn’t allow a single pressure — and took snaps at center at the Senior Bowl. He’d most likely play guard in Green Bay, which lost Lucas Patrick in free agency. Packers fans (and Aaron Rodgers) should be happy with this first-round haul, and the franchise has two second-round picks as well.
Andrew Booth Jr., CB, Clemson
The loss in free agency of cornerback Charvarius Ward shouldn’t go unnoticed. He had developed into a really solid player. The Kansas City defense improved as the 2021 season went along, but it has to get deeper in the secondary. Booth is a smooth 6-foot corner with good ball skills who played both outside and in the slot in college.
George Karlaftis, DE, Purdue
No wide receiver? Let me explain. First, the Chiefs also have two second- and two third-round picks. They could take one (or two) wide receivers with those selections. This is a deep class, and they could find better value there. And second, defensive end is a need as well. If Karlaftis is on the board, he’d be an ideal end next to Chris Jones, who does his best work from the interior. Karlaftis didn’t always get home to quarterbacks last season (only 4.5 sacks), but he created pressures in their face.
Projected trade: Jets move up for … a center?
How about a third first-round selection from the Jets? In this scenario, with a glaring hole at center and the top guy still on the board, they deal No. 35 and a Day 3 pick to get back into Round 1. And crucially, they keep their pick at No. 38, which allows them to get more help.
The Bengals would move down just four spots and pick up an extra fourth-rounder. They signed center Ted Karras in free agency among other moves to upgrade their O-line, so their need isn’t as big.
Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa
Could Linderbaum be the Jets’ new Nick Mangold? They took Mangold at pick No. 29 in 2006 and have been trying to fill that void at center since he left the team after the 2016 season. Some NFL teams are putt off by Linderbaum’s short arms, but just watch the tape. He has the physical traits to be an All-Pro and is exceptional as both a run and pass blocker. He’s exactly what the Jets need, and this is tremendous value.
Lewis Cine, S, Georgia
The more I talk to people in the league, the more I think the Lions will stand pat on a quarterback with their three picks in the top 34. Jared Goff can be the starter in 2022, and if he struggles, chances are Detroit will be right back in the mix for the No. 1 overall pick, which it can use on a signal-caller. Cine is the fifth Georgia defender in the top 32 picks here (with more to come). He’s a good cover safety who is rising after he ran a 4.37 40 at the combine.
ROUND 2
Kenyon Green, G, Texas A&M
Green is my top-ranked guard, and a I could see a team falling in love with him in the 20s. He might not be on the board here. Green played everything except center for the Aggies, but he should stick at guard in the NFL. The Jaguars, who have spent a lot of money in free agency — including on guard Brandon Scherff — should try to trade this pick and add extra assets. Taking Green helps them immediately, though.
David Ojabo, OLB, Michigan
Ojabo is my top-ranked outside linebacker, even after he tore his Achilles last month and could miss most of the season. If the Lions are thinking long-term, they could get a steal with a high-ceiling edge rusher.
Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida
Cornerback is the position the Bengals should target if they keep the No. 31 pick, and they should be thrilled with Elam here. He locked down receivers for the Gators and then ran a 4.39 40 at the combine. He could be a Day 1 starter for Cincinnati.
Jalen Pitre, S, Baylor
This makes five safeties off the board in the top 36 picks. Pitre was stellar against the run last season; he had 20 run stops, according to ESPN Stats & Info, which were the most by any FBS defensive back. He impressed teams at the Senior Bowl. The Giants could target a wide receiver here, depending on how the board falls. The 6-foot-3 George Pickens (Georgia) could make sense.
Jaquan Brisker, S, Penn State
Brisker is a physical defensive back with versatility. He played down in the box at times for the Nittany Lions, blowing up running lanes. The Texans let Justin Reid leave in free agency, and they have multiple holes in the secondary.
Breece Hall, RB, Iowa State
Day 2 is when teams should take running backs, and the Jets would be getting the clear top back in this class. Hall can do it all, from forcing missed tackles to catching passes. If the Jets are serious about helping Zach Wilson, they should take Hall. This scenario gives them Hall, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Drake London and Tyler Linderbaum with their first four picks, which would have them well on the way to an “A” grade.
Kyler Gordon, CB, Washington
The Bears could go several ways here, including offensive tackle, wide receiver and guard. With Gordon still available, though, I’d pounce. He has lockdown traits and didn’t allow a single touchdown in coverage last season. There has been a great history of teams finding starting corners in the second round, and Gordon has a great chance to play early.
play
0:52
Check out some of CB Kyler Gordon’s highlights from his time with the Washington Huskies.
Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati
Here’s a landing spot for the third quarterback in this class. Are the Seahawks really going to start Drew Lock all year? I don’t buy it. Ridder is an experienced, savvy signal-caller (43 college wins) who can be a little erratic at times. If he can get his accuracy issues under control, he could be a starter, especially with the type of targets Seattle has. This might be the best-case scenario for the franchise, because Ridder won’t have the expectations of a first-round pick while playing in the shadow of Russell Wilson.
Quay Walker, LB, Georgia
The sixth Georgia defender off the board so far, Walker is a big and tough linebacker who could try to fill the void left by Bobby Wagner’s departure. I was a big fan of the Seahawks taking Jordyn Brooks in Round 1 in 2020, and this would give them two off-ball linebackers to crush ball carriers and get their hands in passing lanes.
Bernhard Raimann, OT, Central Michigan
There’s a drop off in the tackle class after the top four guys, but there could be a run of them in Round 2. Raimann, who started his college career as a tight end and moved to tackle in 2020, has the physical tools that will entice teams. He needs to be coached hard. This is the Colts’ only pick in the first two rounds, so they have to make it count.
Boye Mafe, OLB, Minnesota
The Falcons had just 18 sacks last season, which ranked last in the league. Outside of Grady Jarrett, who in their front seven will scare teams? Mafe had seven sacks last season and was really good during Senior Bowl practices. At 6-foot-3 and 261 pounds, he fits in Atlanta’s 3-4 scheme.
Travis Jones, DT, Connecticut
Like the Colts, the Browns have just one pick in the first two rounds, and Jones would fill a need. The 6-foot-4 and 325-pound nose tackle can eat up space and allow the rest of the defense to find the football. He might end up as only a two-down defender; I’d feel better about taking him in Round 2 than in the top 32.
Channing Tindall, LB, Georgia
OK, this is the last of the Georgia defenders in my mock draft, and this guy never even made a start for the national champs (in 50 career games). He still played a lot, of course, and had 19 pressures last season. His 4.47 40 at 230 pounds at the combine was extremely impressive. For the Ravens, he could compete for a starting spot at inside linebacker and be a core contributor on special teams.
Perrion Winfrey, DT, Oklahoma
Winfrey is more of a classic 3-technique penetrating tackle, and he was one of the biggest risers after his performance at the Senior Bowl. Linemen couldn’t block him. He didn’t always get the chance to create havoc at Oklahoma. Winfrey could be great next to nose tackle Dalvin Tomlinson for Minnesota.
George Pickens, WR, Georgia
I love this for Washington, which could get a 6-foot-3 outside receiver with No. 1 traits. He tore his ACL last spring and returned late in the 2021 season, making an impact down the stretch. It’s no guarantee he lasts until Round 2 — teams could think long-term and be patient with him — but the Commanders should try to pair him with Terry McLaurin.
Tyler Smith, OT/G, Tulsa
I mentioned Chicago’s offensive line need at No. 39, and Smith could play a role at guard or tackle. He played left tackle for the Golden Hurricane, but some teams view him as a better guard at the next level. He has to be more consistent and work on his technique — he was called for a whopping 12 penalties last season — but the tools are there.
Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss
Corral is a tough evaluation. He wants to play like Josh Allen but doesn’t have the size — he’s only 6-foot-2. He was the only player in the country last season with 3,300-plus passing yards and 500-plus rushing yards. Will he be able to consistently make every throw in the NFL? That’s why I think he’s a safer bet on Day 2. He would make a lot of sense in New Orleans, where he could get an evaluation year behind Jameis Winston.
Skyy Moore, WR, Western Michigan
Happy now, Chiefs fans? Here’s a speedy 5-foot-10 wide receiver who will look just a little similar to Tyreek Hill. I’ve called Moore the most underrated player in this class. I love what he does after the catch — he forced 30 missed tackles last season, which ranked second in FBS among receivers — and he doesn’t drop passes. He has huge hands. He’s not going to be a straight replacement for Hill, but he’ll contribute as a rookie.
Drake Jackson, DE/OLB, USC
There was a time when I thought Jackson might be a top-10 pick, but he never quite put everything together for the Trojans. Still, NFL teams will see his size (6-foot-3, 254 pounds) and physical traits and think they can coach him to hit his ceiling. For the Eagles, Jackson might be a situational pass-rusher at first while he develops his game. Edge rush is a clear need for Philly.
John Metchie III, WR, Alabama
Metchie tore his ACL in December, but he was having a fantastic season, with 96 catches for 1,142 yards and eight scores. He can play in the slot and make a difference in the middle of the field for the Steelers, which let JuJu Smith-Schuster walk in free agency. Metchie should be able to recover to play in Week 1 — and potentially help Kenny Pickett.
Alec Pierce, WR, Cincinnati
My comp for Pierce will be familiar to Packers fans — it’s Jordy Nelson. And Green Bay got Nelson in the second round, too. The 6-foot-3 Pierce ran a 4.41 40 at the combine and also had a 40.5-inch vertical. He has rare physical tools, which have him climbing draft boards. He could thrive on go routes from Aaron Rodgers.
Logan Hall, DL, Houston
This is another Patriots-type pick, because Hall is a bit of a tweener. At 6-foot-6 and 283 pounds, he might be best suited for a defensive end spot in a 3-4 scheme, or he could kick inside and play as a 3-technique tackle. Bill Belichick & Co. will be able to use him in different ways. Hall has put on more than 50 pounds since high school, so he’s still growing into his frame.
Roger McCreary, CB, Auburn
McCreary is fundamentally sound and advanced in his technique, but he’s undersized (5-foot-11) with short arms. He’s also not as explosive as a few other corners in this class. Still, he has some great tape, and I don’t think he’ll drop past Round 3, because he could be a great nickel corner. Arizona has to add quality depth in the secondary.
Abraham Lucas, OT, Washington State
The Cowboys released La’el Collins and think Terence Steele, a former undrafted free agent, can be the starter at right tackle. Let’s add some competition, though. Lucas impressed at the combine, and he stonewalled edge rushers on the right side for the Cougars. If he doesn’t start at tackle, he could move inside to guard. The O-line is a clear area to upgrade for Dallas.
Kenneth Walker III, RB, Michigan State
Bills fans would be thrilled with these two picks, right? Buffalo would address its hole in the secondary with Daxton Hill in Round 1, then get a starting-caliber late in Round 2. Walker is a bulldozer with some juice through the hole. He wasn’t used much as a receiver in college (just 19 career catches), so that’s a question mark. But for a team that needs to take pressure off its quarterback and has excellent receivers, Walker could thrive.
Troy Andersen, LB, Montana State
Andersen played as an off-ball linebacker — and quarterback, running back — in college, racking up 150 tackles last season. He impressed at the combine, running a 4.42 40 at 6-foot-3 and 243 pounds. That’s an elite number. Atlanta just has to focus on replenishing its roster, so this is great value.
play
0:45
Check out the best highlights from Troy Andersen’s collegiate career at Montana State.
Myjai Sanders, DE/OLB, Cincinnati
Sanders weighed just 228 pounds at the combine and reportedly had lost weight because of a stomach bug. He should settle in the 240-range in the NFL, and he might be best suited as an outside linebacker. But he has some explosive traits off the edge, and he could be an interesting high-upside pick on Day 2. The Packers have to add young edge talent in this draft.
Cole Strange, G, Chattanooga
Super Bowl contenders are allowed to use the draft to fill needs, because they don’t have many holes. And really, the Bucs and Bills are the two teams with the fewest number of obvious holes. With Ali Marpet retiring and Alex Cappa signing with the Bengals, Tampa will have two new starters at guard. Strange made 44 starts in college and showed at the Senior Bowl that he could play with the best of the best.
Cam Taylor-Britt, DB, Nebraska
This is the 49ers’ debut pick in this draft, but this late in Round 2, they’re not going to be guaranteed to get a starter. They can take a need position, sure, but they shouldn’t reach to make it happen. Taylor-Britt makes sense because he has some raw tools with which to work and has the skill set to play multiple spots. He had 11 pass breakups last season. San Francisco signed Charvarius Ward but should add corner depth.
Jalen Tolbert, WR, South Alabama
How about one more wideout for the Chiefs? Tolbert had 2,559 receiving yards over the past two seasons. At 6-foot-1 and 194 pounds, he has the ability to run every route, and coach Andy Reid can scheme him open around the formation. This lets Kansas City try to replace Tyreek Hill with two wideouts (I also gave it Skyy Moore earlier in the round), both of whom will need some time to adjust to the NFL.
Greg Dulcich, TE, UCLA
Let’s end this projection with the top tight ends in the class. Dulcich averaged 17.3 yards per catch last season, lining up mostly next to offensive tackles. He ran some routes out of the slot, but if the Bengals want to replace C.J. Uzomah with a similar tight end, that’s Dulcich.
Trey McBride, TE, Colorado State
McBride is more advanced as a pass-catcher than Dulcich, which is what the Broncos need with new quarterback Russell Wilson. With Noah Fant off to Seattle, there are targets available. McBride had 90 catches for 1,121 yards last season; he could stretch the seams in Denver.
Here we go: Two weeks (OK, 15 days) until the start of the 2022 NFL draft. The Jacksonville Jaguars are on the clock, of course, but they’re not the most interesting team in this draft. There are a whopping eight teams with two first-round picks — a record if it shakes out that way on April 28 — including Super Bowl contenders such as the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs. There are a lot of ways Round 1 could go, especially with the questions (and concerns) around the quarterback class.
Let’s get into my annual two-round mock draft, projecting pick Nos. 1-64. I have four quarterbacks and 12 wide receivers here, plus four edge defenders in the top seven picks. I have interesting landing spots for the offensive tackles. And I have one trade for a team moving back into Round 1 to get a critical need — and leaping another franchise that needs that position.
I’m projecting these 64 picks based on a combination of my updated rankings, team needs and what I’m hearing from execs, scouts and coaches in the league. For the second round, in particular, so much could change between now and when teams are on the clock, so I’m using my Big Board as a guide on value.
If you want to go deeper than the first two rounds, check out Jordan Reid’s seven-round mock. And you can catch the one-hour SportsCenter Special on Wednesday breaking down these picks at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN2 and ESPN+.
Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan
There’s really no need to overthink things here. Hutchinson is the best prospect in this class — an edge rusher who could average 12 sacks a year for a decade — and he plays a premier position. He could play as a stand-up outside linebacker or hand-in-the-dirt end for the Jaguars, meeting quarterbacks in the backfield with 2019 first-rounder Josh Allen.
Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
Can I interest you in a 6-foot-3 corner with long arms and 4.41 40-yard dash speed who didn’t allow a single touchdown in coverage in college? That’s Gardner. The Lions have several needs and would likely jump at Aidan Hutchinson if he somehow fell here. If they can get something out of Jeff Okudah, the No. 3 overall pick in the 2020 draft who has played just 10 games in two seasons, they could have a much-improved secondary.
Travon Walker, DE, Georgia
I don’t think anyone outside the organization really knows what the Texans will do in Round 1. For this mock, I’m trying to think long-term with Houston, which just has to add some talent. Walker is a bit of risk in the top 10; NFL teams are betting that his physical tools will win out over his subpar college production (9.5 sacks in three seasons). Coaches want to try to maximize that upside. There is a lot of buzz on Walker going early.
Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE, Oregon
I’m not buying a Thibodeaux drop. He might be the most talented prospect in this class. The Jets have to add some juice to their pass rush, and this is the spot to do it. It’s also not out of the question that they take a receiver here — Drake London or Garrett Wilson? — because their top guy might be off the board by the time they pick at No. 10.
Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State
If the board shakes out this way, the Giants would have to be thrilled to get their pick of the top two offensive tackles. I have Ekwonu just slightly over Evan Neal, but it’s tough to go wrong with either — they are my Nos. 2 and 3 prospects in this class. Ekwonu answered every question about his pass-protection ability last season. If left tackle Andrew Thomas keeps improving, these two could form one of the NFL’s best bookend pairings.
Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
Doesn’t Carolina coach Matt Rhule have to take a swing on a quarterback here? The Panthers don’t have second- or third-round picks. Rhule will enter the season on the hot seat, and this is his chance to buy some time with a high-ceiling rookie signal-caller. Willis is going to make some mistakes, but he will be fun to watch. He might nail a perfect deep ball to Robby Anderson and then throw a pick in the red zone on the next play. But he’s going to keep getting better with more time, and Carolina does have some skill position talent to help him.
Jermaine Johnson II, DE, Florida State
The Giants can get their tackle at No. 5 and then focus on their defense, which allowed 4.7 yards per play last season (31st in the NFL). Johnson had 12 sacks last season and was one of the most impressive prospects at the Senior Bowl in January. He already has a few veteran pass-rush moves and can be an instant starter. He also played a lot of outside linebacker for the Seminoles, so he has some versatility in Wink Martindale’s defense. And if you’re keeping track, this makes four edge rushers in the top seven picks.
Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State
I’m going to stick with this prediction because … who is Marcus Mariota going to throw to next season? The Falcons just don’t have any starting-caliber receivers. Wilson can run every route and beat defenders after the catch. He could be the early favorite for rookie of the year if he lands here — he’d get a bunch of targets. Atlanta will likely be tracking the edge rushers closely, but there isn’t value at this point on my board.
play
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Look back at Garrett Wilson’s college career and why he is a star in the making at WR.
Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
This is another team that ends up with an ideal scenario. Veteran left tackle Duane Brown is still unsigned, so Neal could start from Day 1. It just makes too much sense. I’m not a huge believer that Drew Lock will be Seattle’s quarterback answer for the long term, but Neal could be a stalwart on the left side for years to come.
Drake London, WR, USC
If the Jets can pull this off — a top-tier receiver here and a high-upside edge rusher at No. 4 — shouldn’t they be considered one of the most improved teams of the offseason? I like what they’ve done, and they haven’t had to break the bank. Of course, that doesn’t mean they’re going to be AFC East contenders just yet. London is a 6-foot-4 target who will dominate in the red zone and pull down 50-50 balls to boost Zach Wilson’s completion percentage.
Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
Hamilton has been dinged a little bit because of his 40 time, which was a 4.59 at the combine and a little slower at his pro day. He’s a fantastic player, but he doesn’t have rare physical tools, which means he could fall out of the top 10. I would want him on my team. At 6-foot-4, he could play multiple positions, from center fielder to box linebacker. He would make plays for a Washington defense that disappointed in 2021.
Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU
This is a great fit for both sides. The Vikings could get a corner with an elite, All-Pro ceiling and plug a hole, while Stingley could join a team with a few other former LSU stars (Justin Jefferson, Danielle Hunter, Patrick Peterson). The worry on Stingley is that his best tape is from 2019, when he starred as a true freshman. Can he return to form in the NFL — and stay healthy? That’s a risk teams will have to consider. Still, I feel better making that bet at No. 12 than if I was picking in the top five.
Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
I’m going to stick to my board here, and since my top-11 prospects have all been picked (plus Malik Willis), I’ll move on to No. 12. Cross is a superb pass-blocker who needs some refinement in the run game — because he just didn’t get the reps to do so while playing for Mike Leach. Ultimately, if the Texans are going to give Davis Mills the 2022 season to prove he’s their guy at quarterback, Mills needs a better right tackle. That could be Cross.
Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
The Ravens could go in several directions here, including offensive tackle (will Ronnie Stanley ever be the same again?) and defensive end (Calais Campbell is back, but he’s 35). When I look at this depth chart, though, I see corner depth as an issue. McDuffie has the versatility to play outside and in the slot, and he also will wrap up and bring down ball carriers in the run game. He’s physical.
Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
After last week’s trade with the Saints, the Eagles now have one fewer first-round pick, but you have to think they’ll take a receiver with one of them, right? If they’re committed to using 2022 as an evaluation year for Jalen Hurts, the best way they can evaluate him is to give him the tools to succeed. Olave had seven touchdowns out of the slot last season, but he can move outside, too, and use his 4.39 40 speed to get open. Hurts would love throwing to him and DeVonta Smith, with Dallas Goedert working the middle of the field.
Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
Speaking of the Saints, I have a hard time believing the trade with the Eagles was to take a quarterback. Why wouldn’t they try to move up higher? (Unless there’s another move to come.) It’s possible they think they are NFC contenders this season and could be put over the edge with two more starters. With that in mind, here’s a tackle who could replace Terron Armstead on the left side. Penning is a nasty, physical blocker who is ready to play immediately.
Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia
The Chargers need a right tackle, but with Trevor Penning off the board, I don’t feel great about the value here. In fact, my next tackle in this mock doesn’t go off the board until No. 42. Let’s move instead to another need for L.A. and fill it with Davis, who at 6-foot-6 and 341 pounds is used to being a hole-filler. He has unique physical tools for his size, and he makes everyone around him better because of the space he eats. This is how Brandon Staley’s defense can level up in 2022.
Nakobe Dean, ILB, Georgia
I see a massive void in the middle of the Eagles’ front seven, and we’re getting to the point in this draft in which an off-ball linebacker will be taken. I have Devin Lloyd just ahead of Dean in my rankings, but there are teams that will fall in love with Dean’s intangibles. He’s a tremendous teammate who was the leader of the national champs’ historic defense. He’s a little undersized, but he can play sideline to sideline.
Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
Even if Michael Thomas comes back healthy, the Saints should address wide receiver with one of their two first-round picks. Williams would have been in the discussion to be the No. 1 wideout in this class, but he tore his ACL in the national title game in January and could miss a little time in 2022. He could be a superstar once he’s healthy; he has explosive speed and was uncoverable for the Crimson Tide last season. ACL injuries aren’t even close to career-ending anymore, so I don’t see this as a risky pick. Williams is worth it.
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Check out the best moments from Jameson Williams at Alabama as he gets ready for the NFL draft.
Kenny Pickett, QB, Pitt
I’d feel much more comfortable taking Pickett here than I would in the top 10. Best-case scenario is that he’s Derek Carr, and his floor is as an Andy Dalton-type, which isn’t a bad quarterback by any means. Pittsburgh can win with that. Still, those two were taken in Round 2 and didn’t have Round 1 expectations surrounding them. If Pickett falls into the Steelers’ laps here, he’d be tough to pass up. And he has a little more upside than Mitch Trubisky.
Devin Lloyd, ILB, Utah
I thought about a wide receiver and cornerback here, but Lloyd just feels like a Bill Belichick-type player. He’s always around the ball, is a great blitzer from the middle of the defense and makes plays. The Patriots allowed 4.5 yards per carry last season, which ranked 25th in the league. This fills a void with an impact player.
Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota State
There could be a run on wide receivers in the 20s, starting with the Patriots and Packers. We know Green Bay needs one after the Davante Adams trade, but I don’t think general manager Brian Gutekunst is going to force it. Watson is a riser, as teams see a 6-foot-4 receiver with 4.36 40 speed and elite measurables and think he can be a big-play threat who can grow into a better route runner. Watson averaged 20.4 yards per catch in his college career. Watson is ready to contribute for Aaron Rodgers as a rookie.
Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
Burks can be used in different roles — he even ran 19 routes out of the backfield last season — and will be dynamic after the catch. He will take screens and short passes for scores. For Arizona, this is about helping replacing Christian Kirk and getting some help for an offense that struggled when DeAndre Hopkins went down last season.
Arnold Ebiketie, DE, Penn State
McShay is getting tired of me talking up Ebiketie, but I’m a fan. I wanted to find a fit for him in Round 1. The Temple transfer really improved last season, putting up 9.5 sacks. He has a powerful lower body and knows how to use his hands. The Cowboys have to find a way to replace Randy Gregory, and Ebiketie could help. They could also target a guard or wide receiver here.
Daxton Hill, DB, Michigan
I just moved Hill way up on my Big Board. NFL teams love his versatility — he played more than 550 snaps at nickelback in 2021 — and think he could play both corner and safety. He might be a slot corner if he ends up in Buffalo, which lost Levi Wallace in free agency and has Tre’Davious White returning from an ACL tear. Andrew Booth Jr. (Clemson) and Kyler Gordon (Washington) are two other corners to keep an eye on. The Bills have one of the best rosters in the league.
Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State
The Titans need to get faster at receiver next to A.J. Brown. That’s not Robert Woods’ game. Dotson, who ran a 4.43 40 at the combine, caught 91 passes last season, 33 coming from the slot. He would give Ryan Tannehill more easy throws because he can scoot after the catch. Tennessee could also target the best offensive lineman available with this pick. On my board, that would be center Tyler Linderbaum (Iowa), and he could play some guard.
Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia
The Bucs are another team that could take a guard in Round 1, but I see a fit with Wyatt, who could take Ndamukong Suh’s spot next to Vita Vea. Wyatt played mostly as a 3-technique tackle for the Bulldogs, but he could play end in a 3-4 defense, too. He wasn’t a super productive pass-rusher (2.5 sacks last season), but he has the physical tools that coordinators will want to mold. Cornerback could be a possibility for Tampa Bay as well.
Zion Johnson, G/C, Boston College
Johnson’s positional flex is impressive to teams, as he dominated as a guard last season — he didn’t allow a single pressure — and took snaps at center at the Senior Bowl. He’d most likely play guard in Green Bay, which lost Lucas Patrick in free agency. Packers fans (and Aaron Rodgers) should be happy with this first-round haul, and the franchise has two second-round picks as well.
Andrew Booth Jr., CB, Clemson
The loss in free agency of cornerback Charvarius Ward shouldn’t go unnoticed. He had developed into a really solid player. The Kansas City defense improved as the 2021 season went along, but it has to get deeper in the secondary. Booth is a smooth 6-foot corner with good ball skills who played both outside and in the slot in college.
George Karlaftis, DE, Purdue
No wide receiver? Let me explain. First, the Chiefs also have two second- and two third-round picks. They could take one (or two) wide receivers with those selections. This is a deep class, and they could find better value there. And second, defensive end is a need as well. If Karlaftis is on the board, he’d be an ideal end next to Chris Jones, who does his best work from the interior. Karlaftis didn’t always get home to quarterbacks last season (only 4.5 sacks), but he created pressures in their face.
Projected trade: Jets move up for … a center?
How about a third first-round selection from the Jets? In this scenario, with a glaring hole at center and the top guy still on the board, they deal No. 35 and a Day 3 pick to get back into Round 1. And crucially, they keep their pick at No. 38, which allows them to get more help.
The Bengals would move down just four spots and pick up an extra fourth-rounder. They signed center Ted Karras in free agency among other moves to upgrade their O-line, so their need isn’t as big.
Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa
Could Linderbaum be the Jets’ new Nick Mangold? They took Mangold at pick No. 29 in 2006 and have been trying to fill that void at center since he left the team after the 2016 season. Some NFL teams are putt off by Linderbaum’s short arms, but just watch the tape. He has the physical traits to be an All-Pro and is exceptional as both a run and pass blocker. He’s exactly what the Jets need, and this is tremendous value.
Lewis Cine, S, Georgia
The more I talk to people in the league, the more I think the Lions will stand pat on a quarterback with their three picks in the top 34. Jared Goff can be the starter in 2022, and if he struggles, chances are Detroit will be right back in the mix for the No. 1 overall pick, which it can use on a signal-caller. Cine is the fifth Georgia defender in the top 32 picks here (with more to come). He’s a good cover safety who is rising after he ran a 4.37 40 at the combine.
ROUND 2
Kenyon Green, G, Texas A&M
Green is my top-ranked guard, and a I could see a team falling in love with him in the 20s. He might not be on the board here. Green played everything except center for the Aggies, but he should stick at guard in the NFL. The Jaguars, who have spent a lot of money in free agency — including on guard Brandon Scherff — should try to trade this pick and add extra assets. Taking Green helps them immediately, though.
David Ojabo, OLB, Michigan
Ojabo is my top-ranked outside linebacker, even after he tore his Achilles last month and could miss most of the season. If the Lions are thinking long-term, they could get a steal with a high-ceiling edge rusher.
Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida
Cornerback is the position the Bengals should target if they keep the No. 31 pick, and they should be thrilled with Elam here. He locked down receivers for the Gators and then ran a 4.39 40 at the combine. He could be a Day 1 starter for Cincinnati.
Jalen Pitre, S, Baylor
This makes five safeties off the board in the top 36 picks. Pitre was stellar against the run last season; he had 20 run stops, according to ESPN Stats & Info, which were the most by any FBS defensive back. He impressed teams at the Senior Bowl. The Giants could target a wide receiver here, depending on how the board falls. The 6-foot-3 George Pickens (Georgia) could make sense.
Jaquan Brisker, S, Penn State
Brisker is a physical defensive back with versatility. He played down in the box at times for the Nittany Lions, blowing up running lanes. The Texans let Justin Reid leave in free agency, and they have multiple holes in the secondary.
Breece Hall, RB, Iowa State
Day 2 is when teams should take running backs, and the Jets would be getting the clear top back in this class. Hall can do it all, from forcing missed tackles to catching passes. If the Jets are serious about helping Zach Wilson, they should take Hall. This scenario gives them Hall, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Drake London and Tyler Linderbaum with their first four picks, which would have them well on the way to an “A” grade.
Kyler Gordon, CB, Washington
The Bears could go several ways here, including offensive tackle, wide receiver and guard. With Gordon still available, though, I’d pounce. He has lockdown traits and didn’t allow a single touchdown in coverage last season. There has been a great history of teams finding starting corners in the second round, and Gordon has a great chance to play early.
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Check out some of CB Kyler Gordon’s highlights from his time with the Washington Huskies.
Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati
Here’s a landing spot for the third quarterback in this class. Are the Seahawks really going to start Drew Lock all year? I don’t buy it. Ridder is an experienced, savvy signal-caller (43 college wins) who can be a little erratic at times. If he can get his accuracy issues under control, he could be a starter, especially with the type of targets Seattle has. This might be the best-case scenario for the franchise, because Ridder won’t have the expectations of a first-round pick while playing in the shadow of Russell Wilson.
Quay Walker, LB, Georgia
The sixth Georgia defender off the board so far, Walker is a big and tough linebacker who could try to fill the void left by Bobby Wagner’s departure. I was a big fan of the Seahawks taking Jordyn Brooks in Round 1 in 2020, and this would give them two off-ball linebackers to crush ball carriers and get their hands in passing lanes.
Bernhard Raimann, OT, Central Michigan
There’s a drop off in the tackle class after the top four guys, but there could be a run of them in Round 2. Raimann, who started his college career as a tight end and moved to tackle in 2020, has the physical tools that will entice teams. He needs to be coached hard. This is the Colts’ only pick in the first two rounds, so they have to make it count.
Boye Mafe, OLB, Minnesota
The Falcons had just 18 sacks last season, which ranked last in the league. Outside of Grady Jarrett, who in their front seven will scare teams? Mafe had seven sacks last season and was really good during Senior Bowl practices. At 6-foot-3 and 261 pounds, he fits in Atlanta’s 3-4 scheme.
Travis Jones, DT, Connecticut
Like the Colts, the Browns have just one pick in the first two rounds, and Jones would fill a need. The 6-foot-4 and 325-pound nose tackle can eat up space and allow the rest of the defense to find the football. He might end up as only a two-down defender; I’d feel better about taking him in Round 2 than in the top 32.
Channing Tindall, LB, Georgia
OK, this is the last of the Georgia defenders in my mock draft, and this guy never even made a start for the national champs (in 50 career games). He still played a lot, of course, and had 19 pressures last season. His 4.47 40 at 230 pounds at the combine was extremely impressive. For the Ravens, he could compete for a starting spot at inside linebacker and be a core contributor on special teams.
Perrion Winfrey, DT, Oklahoma
Winfrey is more of a classic 3-technique penetrating tackle, and he was one of the biggest risers after his performance at the Senior Bowl. Linemen couldn’t block him. He didn’t always get the chance to create havoc at Oklahoma. Winfrey could be great next to nose tackle Dalvin Tomlinson for Minnesota.
George Pickens, WR, Georgia
I love this for Washington, which could get a 6-foot-3 outside receiver with No. 1 traits. He tore his ACL last spring and returned late in the 2021 season, making an impact down the stretch. It’s no guarantee he lasts until Round 2 — teams could think long-term and be patient with him — but the Commanders should try to pair him with Terry McLaurin.
Tyler Smith, OT/G, Tulsa
I mentioned Chicago’s offensive line need at No. 39, and Smith could play a role at guard or tackle. He played left tackle for the Golden Hurricane, but some teams view him as a better guard at the next level. He has to be more consistent and work on his technique — he was called for a whopping 12 penalties last season — but the tools are there.
Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss
Corral is a tough evaluation. He wants to play like Josh Allen but doesn’t have the size — he’s only 6-foot-2. He was the only player in the country last season with 3,300-plus passing yards and 500-plus rushing yards. Will he be able to consistently make every throw in the NFL? That’s why I think he’s a safer bet on Day 2. He would make a lot of sense in New Orleans, where he could get an evaluation year behind Jameis Winston.
Skyy Moore, WR, Western Michigan
Happy now, Chiefs fans? Here’s a speedy 5-foot-10 wide receiver who will look just a little similar to Tyreek Hill. I’ve called Moore the most underrated player in this class. I love what he does after the catch — he forced 30 missed tackles last season, which ranked second in FBS among receivers — and he doesn’t drop passes. He has huge hands. He’s not going to be a straight replacement for Hill, but he’ll contribute as a rookie.
Drake Jackson, DE/OLB, USC
There was a time when I thought Jackson might be a top-10 pick, but he never quite put everything together for the Trojans. Still, NFL teams will see his size (6-foot-3, 254 pounds) and physical traits and think they can coach him to hit his ceiling. For the Eagles, Jackson might be a situational pass-rusher at first while he develops his game. Edge rush is a clear need for Philly.
John Metchie III, WR, Alabama
Metchie tore his ACL in December, but he was having a fantastic season, with 96 catches for 1,142 yards and eight scores. He can play in the slot and make a difference in the middle of the field for the Steelers, which let JuJu Smith-Schuster walk in free agency. Metchie should be able to recover to play in Week 1 — and potentially help Kenny Pickett.
Alec Pierce, WR, Cincinnati
My comp for Pierce will be familiar to Packers fans — it’s Jordy Nelson. And Green Bay got Nelson in the second round, too. The 6-foot-3 Pierce ran a 4.41 40 at the combine and also had a 40.5-inch vertical. He has rare physical tools, which have him climbing draft boards. He could thrive on go routes from Aaron Rodgers.
Logan Hall, DL, Houston
This is another Patriots-type pick, because Hall is a bit of a tweener. At 6-foot-6 and 283 pounds, he might be best suited for a defensive end spot in a 3-4 scheme, or he could kick inside and play as a 3-technique tackle. Bill Belichick & Co. will be able to use him in different ways. Hall has put on more than 50 pounds since high school, so he’s still growing into his frame.
Roger McCreary, CB, Auburn
McCreary is fundamentally sound and advanced in his technique, but he’s undersized (5-foot-11) with short arms. He’s also not as explosive as a few other corners in this class. Still, he has some great tape, and I don’t think he’ll drop past Round 3, because he could be a great nickel corner. Arizona has to add quality depth in the secondary.
Abraham Lucas, OT, Washington State
The Cowboys released La’el Collins and think Terence Steele, a former undrafted free agent, can be the starter at right tackle. Let’s add some competition, though. Lucas impressed at the combine, and he stonewalled edge rushers on the right side for the Cougars. If he doesn’t start at tackle, he could move inside to guard. The O-line is a clear area to upgrade for Dallas.
Kenneth Walker III, RB, Michigan State
Bills fans would be thrilled with these two picks, right? Buffalo would address its hole in the secondary with Daxton Hill in Round 1, then get a starting-caliber late in Round 2. Walker is a bulldozer with some juice through the hole. He wasn’t used much as a receiver in college (just 19 career catches), so that’s a question mark. But for a team that needs to take pressure off its quarterback and has excellent receivers, Walker could thrive.
Troy Andersen, LB, Montana State
Andersen played as an off-ball linebacker — and quarterback, running back — in college, racking up 150 tackles last season. He impressed at the combine, running a 4.42 40 at 6-foot-3 and 243 pounds. That’s an elite number. Atlanta just has to focus on replenishing its roster, so this is great value.
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Check out the best highlights from Troy Andersen’s collegiate career at Montana State.
Myjai Sanders, DE/OLB, Cincinnati
Sanders weighed just 228 pounds at the combine and reportedly had lost weight because of a stomach bug. He should settle in the 240-range in the NFL, and he might be best suited as an outside linebacker. But he has some explosive traits off the edge, and he could be an interesting high-upside pick on Day 2. The Packers have to add young edge talent in this draft.
Cole Strange, G, Chattanooga
Super Bowl contenders are allowed to use the draft to fill needs, because they don’t have many holes. And really, the Bucs and Bills are the two teams with the fewest number of obvious holes. With Ali Marpet retiring and Alex Cappa signing with the Bengals, Tampa will have two new starters at guard. Strange made 44 starts in college and showed at the Senior Bowl that he could play with the best of the best.
Cam Taylor-Britt, DB, Nebraska
This is the 49ers’ debut pick in this draft, but this late in Round 2, they’re not going to be guaranteed to get a starter. They can take a need position, sure, but they shouldn’t reach to make it happen. Taylor-Britt makes sense because he has some raw tools with which to work and has the skill set to play multiple spots. He had 11 pass breakups last season. San Francisco signed Charvarius Ward but should add corner depth.
Jalen Tolbert, WR, South Alabama
How about one more wideout for the Chiefs? Tolbert had 2,559 receiving yards over the past two seasons. At 6-foot-1 and 194 pounds, he has the ability to run every route, and coach Andy Reid can scheme him open around the formation. This lets Kansas City try to replace Tyreek Hill with two wideouts (I also gave it Skyy Moore earlier in the round), both of whom will need some time to adjust to the NFL.
Greg Dulcich, TE, UCLA
Let’s end this projection with the top tight ends in the class. Dulcich averaged 17.3 yards per catch last season, lining up mostly next to offensive tackles. He ran some routes out of the slot, but if the Bengals want to replace C.J. Uzomah with a similar tight end, that’s Dulcich.
Trey McBride, TE, Colorado State
McBride is more advanced as a pass-catcher than Dulcich, which is what the Broncos need with new quarterback Russell Wilson. With Noah Fant off to Seattle, there are targets available. McBride had 90 catches for 1,121 yards last season; he could stretch the seams in Denver.
Alabama plucked another established starter out of the college football transfer portal on Tuesday, gaining the commitment of former Vanderbilt offensive lineman Tyler Steen.
Steen, who is 6-foot-5 and 315 pounds, chose the Crimson Tide over programs like LSU and Kentucky.
He started 10 of 11 games last year and has two seasons of eligibility remaining.
He is expected to compete for one of two vacant offensive tackle positions for Alabama this season.
Steen will join a handful of former Power 5 starters to transfer to the defending SEC champs this offseason.
Former LSU All-American defensive back Eli Ricks, former Georgia Tech All-ACC running back Jahmyr Gibbs and former Georgia leading receiver Jermaine Burton are already on campus for spring practice.
The 2022 NFL draft is four weeks away, and I can’t wait. At the moment, 24 teams will have the chance to add at least one impact player in Round 1 — eight teams no longer have a first-round selection — and while this year’s class might be light on surefire franchise quarterbacks, it certainly has plenty of game-changing prospects.
As a former NFL general manager and executive, I’ve been through the draft process, from building a big board to submitting the picks. It’s difficult enough to manage one team’s picks. But today, I’m going to put my GM hat back on and make selections for every team with a first-rounder in 2022.
But this isn’t your traditional mock draft. I’m leaving the actual Round 1 predictions to my colleagues. This isn’t what I’m expecting or what I’m hearing. Instead, what follows is how I’d make each first-round pick if I was representing each of the 24 teams with at least one Day 1 selection. It’s based off my own evaluations and preferences, along with what I believe makes the most sense for every team on the board.
So here are my GM selections for the first 32 picks, starting with a no-brainer for Jaguars GM Trent Baalke at No. 1 overall. And be sure to check out our SportsCenter Special at 5 p.m. ET on Wednesday (ESPN2).
Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan
The Jaguars already have allocated a lot of resources to their offensive line this offseason. They franchise-tagged left tackle Cam Robinson and signed guard Brandon Scherff to a three-year, $52.5 million deal. So while I thought about an offensive tackle here and might have gone that way a month ago, it has to be Hutchinson. He had 66 pressures in 2021, and he can be a culture-setter for Jacksonville for years to come.
Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
If I’m Detroit, I’m crossing my fingers that Jacksonville goes another way, leaving Hutchinson for an easy win here at No. 2. That’s not how things happened, though. And yes, I know the Lions used the No. 3 overall pick on cornerback Jeff Okudah just two years ago, but I also know he has ended up on injured reserve in both of his pro seasons and has been limited to 10 total games. The Lions gave up the NFL’s third-best opponent QBR (53.4) last year and still need a corner. Gardner didn’t surrender more than 13 yards in a game or a single TD all season in 2021.
Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
I’m not worried about the underwhelming 40-yard dash times he posted at the combine (4.59) and his pro day. Hamilton has rare versatility and traits for a safety, and he’d be an instant-impact player on the back end. Houston needs help everywhere, but considering it tied for the second-most yards allowed per play in the NFL last season (5.9), defense jumps out.
Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State
The Jets did a nice job in free agency, but they still need a true No. 1 receiver after Tyreek Hill chose Miami over New York in a trade from the Chiefs. Elijah Moore, Corey Davis and Braxton Berrios are a solid trio, but Wilson is a difference-maker. Second-year quarterback Zach Wilson needs that. On 102 targets, Garrett Wilson had only two drops and caught 89.7% of his catchable balls, per ESPN Stats & Information tracking.
Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
An offensive tackle pairing of Neal and Andrew Thomas gives quarterback Daniel Jones the protection he needs. Neal gave up just one sack last season, and he has 40 career starts under his belt. I considered NC State’s Ikem Ekwonu here, too, but I just believe there’s more certainty with Neal considering the level of competition he faced at Alabama. Being that dominant against SEC pass-rushers is something.
Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh
Yes, the Panthers still need a left tackle, and Ekwonu is still available. But as the stand-in GM, I’m instead thinking about the most important position on the field. Carolina missed out on Deshaun Watson and did nothing else to address a glaring weakness at quarterback. It’s a consequential year for coach Matt Rhule, and the Panthers need to start putting wins on the board. Pickett has 49 career starts and is the most NFL-ready signal-caller of the bunch. Maybe it’s a slight reach, but we’re talking about a QB who could start right away for a team that desperately needs a better option.
Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE, Oregon
The Giants managed just 34 sacks last season and have been looking for a game-changing pass-rusher for several years. No way they can pass on Thibodeaux’s ceiling, which is extremely high despite some concerns about his motor. He has the size, speed and power, and he posted 19 sacks over three seasons at Oregon. I’m pretty happy with the haul here for New York, landing Neal and Thibodeaux to address holes in a massive way.
play
1:36
Take a look at Kayvon Thibodeaux’s most aggressive plays at DE and see why he could be the best player to come out of the draft.
Drake London, WR, USC
Atlanta is searching for its next franchise QB after trading Matt Ryan, but Marcus Mariota can hold the fort for a year. The 2023 class promises to have more options under center. In the meantime, the Falcons have a star in Kyle Pitts at tight end, but their wide receiver room is barren. The current group includes the likes of Olamide Zaccheaus, KhaDarel Hodges and Frank Darby. London is a phenomenal talent and makes a lot of sense for the Falcons.
Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State
Pass-rusher is going to be a spot to watch, and the Seahawks also need a quarterback. But they haven’t re-signed tackle Duane Brown — who remains a free agent — and could get a rebuild going with a young franchise left tackle. That’s Ekwonu, who has 6-foot-4, 310-pound size and lots of mobility. Seattle has allowed at least 42 sacks and finished in the bottom 10 in that department every season since 2015. Ekwonu allowed only nine pressures and three sacks during the 2021 season.
Jermaine Johnson II, DE, Florida State
Maybe I’m just trying to make up for trading away John Abraham 16 years ago. But the way I see it, the Jets still lack edge rushing depth even with Carl Lawson set to return from an Achilles injury. Only six teams had fewer sacks than the Jets last season (33), but Johnson had 12 last year at Florida State. He’s a physical edge setter, too, and I see him as a more consistent prospect than Georgia’s Travon Walker, who might also get some consideration here. I’m pumped if I walk away from Round 1 with Wilson and Johnson.
Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
The Commanders were in the bottom half of the league in just about every passing category last season, and while Carson Wentz represents an upgrade at quarterback, his pass-catching group could use a boost, too. Terry McLaurin is a free agent in 2023, and we’re witnessing a receiver market that is only getting more and more expensive. Curtis Samuel missed 12 games last year, and Adam Humphries — the only other Washington wide receiver besides McLaurin to have more than 25 catches in 2021 — is unsigned. Olave joining McLaurin, his former Ohio State teammate, gives the Commanders a solid duo outside.
Travon Walker, DE, Georgia
Walker’s combine workout was tremendous, but production inconsistency (only 9.5 sacks over 36 career games) concerns me. That’s why I have him falling a bit to No. 12 here. But he is a versatile player who can develop into a force off the edge. A trio of Danielle Hunter, Za’Darius Smith and Walker would cause problems for opposing quarterbacks.
Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
Houston is back on the board thanks to the Deshaun Watson trade, and I’m giving the Texans a smooth-moving pass protector in Cross at No. 13. I drafted Laremy Tunsil in Miami when I was the GM there, and I’m jumping at the chance to draft his bookend on the other side. Cross allowed six pressures on 683 pass-block snaps last season … in the SEC. That’s fantastic. Offensive line is critical for the Texans, after they once again allowed 40-plus sacks last season and are trying to develop Davis Mills, their second-year QB. Houston should be happy with its Day 1 picks, Hamilton and Cross.
Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa
This one is pretty easy. Bradley Bozeman left Baltimore to sign in Carolina, and Linderbaum is a Day 1 starter at center for a team that needs to open running lanes for running back J.K. Dobbins and quarterback Lamar Jackson.
Devin Lloyd, ILB, Utah
April 28 would be a fun night to be the Eagles’ GM. Three picks inside the top 20, starting here! Philadelphia hasn’t taken a first-round linebacker in almost a decade, but Lloyd can be a do-it-all player in the middle of the Eagles’ defense. He’s a three-down defender who plays faster than his 4.66-second time in the 40-yard dash suggests.
Kenyon Green, G/C, Texas A&M
I love this guy’s versatility. He has at least 100 snaps at four different positions along the offensive line, and he’s capable of playing the fifth (center). Center Jason Kelce re-signed but for only a year, and guard Brandon Brooks just retired, so the Eagles could use a player like Green.
Nakobe Dean, ILB, Georgia
Dean reminds me of Jonathan Vilma. He’s slightly undersized at 5-foot-11 and 229 pounds, but he plays with excellent instincts and has the production to be a three-down linebacker up the middle. I could see the Chargers perhaps adding another run-stopper up the middle, but Dean can help there while also affecting multiple other parts of the game. And Los Angeles gets a complete upgrade at every level of the defense, with Khalil Mack coming in off the edge opposite Joey Bosa, J.C. Jackson ballhawking outside, Sebastian Joseph-Day filling gaps against the run and Dean controlling the middle of the field. Los Angeles did take linebacker Kenneth Murray Jr. in the first round two years ago, but he has struggled a bit.
Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
Penning is a perfect fit to replace Terron Armstead, who signed with Miami. He’s tough and physical at the line of scrimmage, and he’d keep the offensive line as one of the Saints’ strengths. Penning turned in a fantastic combine workout, which included the fifth-fastest 10-yard split in the 40-yard dash among linemen (1.65), despite weighing in at 325 pounds.
Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
So I already got the Eagles a linebacker in Lloyd and a lineman in Green. Now I’m focusing on cornerback, where Philly needs a starter opposite Darius Slay. The Eagles tied for the worst completion percentage against in 2021, allowing opponents to connect on nearly 70% of their attempts. But McDuffie is shutdown material. He allowed just 3.8 yards per pass attempt thrown his way last season, which tied for the third-best number in college football, and he can play in man or zone schemes.
Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
With Mitch Trubisky serving as a bridge starter, the Steelers can take advantage of Willis still being available, draft the big-armed Liberty quarterback and let him develop before taking over in the QB-heavy AFC North. I love his mobility in and out of the pocket, and I think he has a chance to be a very good starting QB in the NFL. Pittsburgh has to find its guy under center following Ben Roethlisberger’s retirement, and this is a great scenario for the Steelers.
Andrew Booth Jr., CB, Clemson
Just two years ago, the Patriots had J.C. Jackson and Stephon Gilmore in their cornerbacks room. Now they are starting Malcolm Butler and Jalen Mills on the outside. Booth has great quickness, scheme flexibility and the ability to play all over. And why Booth over LSU’s Derek Stingley Jr.? Stingley has played only 10 games over the past two seasons, and his production over that time left a lot to be desired. That’s concerning, and I’m leaning toward Booth, because I know what I’m getting from him.
Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State
Dotson kind of plays like Marvin Harrison did; he’s undersized but has tremendous speed and soft hands. The Packers need a possession receiver with Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling out of town, and Dotson caught 91 passes last season at Penn State. He also had only two drops on 142 targets and should be able to gain quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ trust quickly.
play
3:29
Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay break down which teams need to draft a wide receiver.
David Ojabo, OLB, Michigan
Ojabo tore an Achilles during Michigan’s pro day, and there’s a chance he falls even further than this. But Arizona should be excited to land a player with his pass-rushing traits, even if it means he won’t debut until, at the earliest, late in the 2022 season. Chandler Jones is gone. J.J. Watt and Markus Golden are both north of 30 years old. We’ve seen players suffer injuries during the draft process and still go on to be high picks and excel in the NFL, including cornerback Sidney Jones IV and defensive lineman Jeffery Simmons. And once Arizona gets Ojabo back to full strength, it would have a productive disruptor off the edge.
Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU
Imagine Trevon Diggs and Stingley covering up opposing receivers. There is incredible potential there. Stingley is an intriguing yet confusing prospect. At his best, he’s one of the top three or four players in the entire class. But his injury history and uneven play create a lot of risk. But at No. 24 overall, Dallas could get a steal if he plays anywhere near his ceiling.
Kyler Gordon, CB, Washington
Tre’Davious White is coming off an ACL tear, and Levi Wallace signed in Pittsburgh. The cornerbacks are coming off the board quickly, and while Gordon didn’t run anywhere near expectations at the combine (4.52 in the 40), he has good 6-foot size and can play strong man-to-man coverage on the outside. He limited opposing receivers to just 15 catches and zero touchdowns in 2021 while picking off a pair of passes.
Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
The Titans released Julio Jones. They traded for Robert Woods, but he is returning from a knee injury. A.J. Brown is entering a contract year. You get the point. The team has a lot of questions at the receiver position. Burks is 6-foot-2 and 225 pounds, and he plays a physical style. Ryan Tannehill would love to have someone like him in the red zone, and I think he’s a perfect fit for the Titans.
Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia
Ndamukong Suh could still re-sign to fill the Bucs’ void at defensive tackle, but I’m just picturing opponents trying to rush up the middle against Vita Vea and Davis. Remember that NFC South offenses have the likes of Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara taking handoffs. You have to have a great run defense in that division, and Davis is the ultimate run-stopper. His combine workout was legendary, and if he stays in the 340-pound range, he will be a dominant defensive tackle in the NFL for a long time.
Zion Johnson, G/C, Boston College
Johnson can be a Day 1 starter at guard or offensive tackle, and he could potentially develop into a center. He worked hard on taking snaps as a center at the Senior Bowl, and there’s no reason he couldn’t end up there in the NFL. Johnson has 34-inch arms and didn’t allow a single pressure or sack in 2021. Elgton Jenkins is recovering from an ACL tear, so Johnson could step in at left guard or replace Royce Newman or Yosh Nijman on the right side.
Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
The Chiefs traded Tyreek Hill. Now they have the chance to use one of the picks that came to Kansas City in return to draft his replacement. Williams tore his ACL and won’t be ready for Week 1, but his explosion and speed make him the ideal Chiefs draft pick. I was really impressed with Williams’ play in the SEC Championship, when he had seven catches for 184 yards and two touchdowns.
play
1:32
Check out the best moments from Jameson Williams at Alabama as he gets ready for the NFL draft.
Arnold Ebiketie, DE, Penn State
Turning to defense, I want to get a productive edge rusher. Only three teams had fewer sacks than the Chiefs’ 31 in 2021, but Ebiketie posted 9.5 sacks for Penn State last season after transferring from Temple.
Roger McCreary, CB, Auburn
The Bengals did a lot of work to their offensive line in free agency, including signing offensive tackle La’el Collins, guard Alex Cappa and interior lineman Ted Karras. I feel pretty good about that, so I’m focusing elsewhere: cornerback. Competition for Eli Apple and Chidobe Awuzie would be a good thing for Cincinnati, and McCreary is a feisty undersized corner with upside.
Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss
Getting the fifth-year option is important for drafting a quarterback. The Ravens used the 32nd pick on Lamar Jackson in 2018, and it gave them an extra year on Jackson’s rookie deal. Detroit — after drafting Gardner earlier — can do the same with Corral. The Lions have Jared Goff under contract, so there’s no need to rush Corral into action, especially because he’s still working his way all the way back from an ankle injury. But he’s a quick prospect with a smooth release. I’m intrigued by the upside here.
With the first wave of NFL free agency and a few league-shaking quarterback trades past us, team needs are becoming more clear ahead of the 2022 NFL draft. We’ve seen which teams have been aggressive in adding veterans and which have sat out free agency (and saved salary-cap space) while looking to a draft class deep with wide receivers and edge rushers.
Let’s get into a new post-free-agency first-round mock draft. I did my previous mock right before the combine earlier this month, so this one has some notable changes, with the Seahawks (No. 9) entering the first round and the Texans (No. 13) and Packers (No. 22) adding a second Round 1 selection. Where will the first quarterback go? Could the Lions shake things up at No. 2? And what’s the Falcons’ plan now?
As a reminder, I’m going to project the top 32 picks based on a combination of my rankings, team needs and what I’m hearing from execs, scouts and coaches in the league. Round 1 begins April 28, which means there’s plenty of time for more changes to come.
The order for all 262 picks is set, and check out our one-hour SportsCenter Special at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN2 and ESPN+. Here we go:
Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan
When I did my previous mock draft, before the combine, I started off my write-up for this pick with this: “Offensive tackle or edge rusher here? I don’t think the Jaguars are set either way.” Well, things change quickly in the NFL. Jacksonville decided to franchise tag left tackle Cam Robinson for the second straight year, taking away its need for a top-tier blindside protector (at least for a year) for quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Now, Hutchinson is the heavy favorite to go to the Jags — barring a desperate team trading up.
Hutchinson, my top-ranked prospect in this class, could get double-digit sacks playing on the other side of Josh Allen in new coordinator Mike Caldwell’s defense. The Jaguars made a few big-money moves in free agency, but there’s still a huge hole at defensive end.
Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
Pass-rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux will be in play here, but the top offensive tackles aren’t an option; the Lions are set with Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell. There’s more risk with Thibodeaux than I’d like for a No. 2 pick, because there’s no guarantee he’ll grow into his immense upside. I’d prefer a safer pick here, and I’ve come around to the fit of Hamilton in Detroit, which my guy Todd McShay has pushed for a little bit.
Hamilton is a playmaking safety in a 6-foot-4 frame who would immediately raise the ceiling of a defense that has struggled for years. He can play in the box, out of the slot and as a center fielder. Normally I’d say this is too high for a safety, but Hamilton is a unique and special defender. Detroit brought back safety Tracy Walker, but he could play with Hamilton.
Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State
Deshaun Watson is gone, and it appears the Texans will move forward with Davis Mills as their quarterback. This team really just has to focus on adding talent around Mills and then see where it is in 2023. Houston is not going to compete in the AFC South this season but could be right back in the top five next year. With five picks in the top 80 in this draft — including the No. 13 selection from the Watson deal — it should take the best prospect available.
For me, that’s Ekwonu, an elite offensive tackle. Yes, Laremy Tunsil is returning on the left side, so put Ekwonu at right tackle and the Texans can have one of the league’s most talented bookend duos. This is a roster with several holes; this selection is another crucial step in a slow rebuild.
Drake London, WR, USC
The Jets have had a nice start to free agency, filling voids at tight end (C.J. Uzomah and Tyler Conklin), safety (Jordan Whitehead), cornerback (D.J. Reed) and guard (Laken Tomlinson). They haven’t yet added an outside wide receiver to help Zach Wilson, though, which means they could be eyeing one with either of their top-10 picks. They could get their choice of the best receiver in the class here, and really, if they want to take one, there’s no need to wait.
London, 6-foot-4 and my top-ranked wideout, had 88 catches for 1,084 yards in eight games in 2021 before a broken right ankle ended his season. He can be a weapon in the red zone. With London and Corey Davis on the outside and Elijah Moore and Braxton Berrios working out of the slot, New York would have a young and talented receiving corps for Wilson’s second season.
Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
The Giants, the other team with two top-10 picks, haven’t been as active in free agency as new general manager Joe Schoen gets the team back into decent salary-cap shape. That doesn’t mean they don’t have needs, though, particularly at edge rusher and offensive tackle. With the way the board has fallen in this projection, they can get Day 1 starters at both spots.
Neal is a massive tackle who can overpower defenders in the run game and move his feet as a pass-protector. Andrew Thomas, the No. 4 pick in the 2020 draft, looked much better in Year 2 and could stay at left tackle, pushing Neal to the right side. Neal also played some guard at Alabama, and he could be great there too. This is a big season for quarterback Daniel Jones, so the Giants have to keep him upright.
Travon Walker, DE, Georgia
The Panthers have struck out in the quarterback trade market so far — although Baker Mayfield and Jimmy Garoppolo are still available — but they are clearly trying to upgrade over Sam Darnold. Could they take Malik Willis or Kenny Pickett here? It’s possible. Coach Matt Rhule is on the hot seat, and this could be his attempt at a big splash for 2022. Still, if he wants to win now, he’s probably better off trading for a veteran and staying away from a rookie signal-caller. Carolina could instead take a sizable edge rusher who is still growing into his 6-foot-5 frame.
Walker just keeps rising in the pre-draft process, as he starred at the Senior Bowl and tested extremely well at the combine. He didn’t put up “wow” numbers in college — he had six sacks for the national champs last season — but that’s because of how dominant the entire Georgia defense was around him. He could put up better numbers in the NFL, and he’s stout against the run too.
Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE, Oregon
This pick is logical for the team and for the prospect. The Giants’ top pass-rusher last season was rookie Azeez Ojulari, who led the team with eight sacks, and they have to improve on the edge. This is their best chance to add a young, talented defensive end. They can afford to use this pick on Thibodeaux, who has a high ceiling but was inconsistent in 2021.
If Thibodeaux puts it all together, you’re talking about All-Pro-level talent. But if he doesn’t build out secondary moves and can’t improve his all-around game, he could struggle. He has the type of physical traits NFL teams love, but taking that guy in the top 10 is risky. If New York passes on Thibodeaux, keep an eye on cornerback or linebacker with this pick.
Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State
So long, Matt Ryan. That means the Falcons will go with a quarterback here, right? Not necessarily. They have one of the league’s worst rosters and could try to get by with Marcus Mariota for a season before going all-in for a passer in the 2023 draft. There’s no guarantee they love Malik Willis or Kenny Pickett enough to take one of them with a top-10 pick. And based on where they are in my rankings — Nos. 19 and 20 — I wouldn’t, either. This is a team that is a long ways from competing, so it shouldn’t force the pick.
Atlanta could go with the best prospect available and fill a need position with Wilson, a field-stretcher who had 113 catches and 18 touchdowns for the Buckeyes over the past two seasons. He ran a speedy 4.38-second 40-yard dash at the combine. With Calvin Ridley suspended for the season, the Falcons don’t have any starting-caliber receivers on their roster to catch Mariota’s passes.
Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
What’s the Seahawks’ plan for 2022? Russell Wilson, Bobby Wagner and D.J. Reed are gone. Quandre Diggs, Al Woods, Rashaad Penny and Will Dissly are back. They added Drew Lock, Noah Fant and Uchenna Nwosu, among a few others. So even after parting ways with two of the best players in franchise history, I don’t think coach Pete Carroll & Co. want to rebuild. It seems they want to give it a go with Lock at quarterback and try to win. That’s why I don’t see quarterback being an option here; Carroll and general manager John Schneider can instead use this pick on an early starter.
Cross could step in for veteran Duane Brown at left tackle. He’s a superb pass-blocker who dominated in the SEC. Seattle, which surrendered its original first-round pick in the Jamal Adams trade, has back-to-back Round 2 picks (Nos. 40 and 41) to add potential starters.
Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
I think the Jets would be thrilled to get a shutdown corner with their second Round 1 pick, improving a secondary that allowed quarterbacks to put up a 53.5 QBR last season, which ranked 31st in the league. Signing D.J. Reed will help, but I still see cornerback as a need. They also need a safety, but I don’t have another one with a first-round grade after Kyle Hamilton.
Gardner is a shutdown corner with outstanding tools. He showed in the College Football Playoff against Alabama that he can hold his own against elite talent. I’m a huge fan.
Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU
Circle April 6 on your calendar. That’s when scouts will get the chance to see Stingley on the field for the first time since he injured his foot in September. He had surgery on the Lisfranc injury and didn’t work out at the combine. It’s a crucial day for a corner once viewed as a potential No. 1 overall pick. As a true freshman in 2019, he was one of LSU’s best players on the way to its national title. Stingley has played in just 10 games over the past two seasons and has some inconsistent tape. I’m still betting on his upside, but he could drop if he doesn’t test well.
Washington had major injury issues at corner last season, and it could upgrade its unit with Stingley. I also thought about a receiver to partner with Terry McLaurin for new quarterback Carson Wentz.
play
2:04
Mel Kiper argues with Todd McShay over his placement of CB Derek Stingley Jr. at No. 15 in his NFL Mock Draft 3.0.
Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
The Vikings have used first-round picks on four cornerbacks since 2013. Can you name them all? (OK, fine: They are Xavier Rhodes, Trae Waynes, Mike Hughes and Jeff Gladney.) None of them are on their roster now, and the guys who drafted them — coach Mike Zimmer and general manager Rick Spielman — are gone, too. This is still a need position for new general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and coach Kevin O’Connell.
McDuffie is the real deal; the stat you’ll see most often is that he didn’t allow a single touchdown in coverage over the past two seasons, and he goes all out on every play. Expect him to be a Day 1 starter.
Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia
As I mentioned in my writeup for the No. 3 pick, the Texans aren’t in the position to target needs over talent. They have to get the best players they can and figure out the rest later, because this is not going to be a quick rebuild. So while I thought about edge rusher Jermaine Johnson II and a couple wide receivers, I decided to get Houston a massive defensive tackle who could make everyone around him better.
The 341-pound Davis can plug the middle of head coach Lovie Smith’s defense. He wowed at the combine earlier this month, and even if he doesn’t have stellar pass-rush upside, he’s going to dominate interior centers and guards on early downs. He’s a unique player who can be excellent if used properly, helping off-ball linebackers find space and getting in the face of quarterbacks.
Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa
The Ravens would likely be thrilled with this scenario. They just let Bradley Bozeman, who started at center in 2021 and left guard in 2019 and 2020, walk in free agency, and they don’t have a replacement on the roster. Linderbaum would be an improvement, not just an instant replacement. As I’ve said a couple times, he’s one of the best center prospects of the past decade.
Defensive end is another position to watch here. Offensive tackle would have been in play, too, but Baltimore added right tackle Morgan Moses in free agency.
Jermaine Johnson II, DE, Florida State
The Eagles haven’t been super active in free agency, though they did add impact edge rusher Haason Reddick and bring back defensive tackle Fletcher Cox. I don’t think any of their needs have changed since my last mock draft. I’m looking at wide receiver, cornerback, safety, off-ball linebacker and defensive end — yes, they still need one — to fill out their three first-round picks.
That leads me to Johnson, a one-year starter who transferred from Georgia to FSU and had a stellar 2021 season. He was excellent at the Senior Bowl and has moved from a possible top-50 pick to likely landing in the top 20. NFL teams always want pass-rushers, and he could help immediately.
Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
Olave can play early and often for a Philadelphia team that has to get more out of its passing game with quarterback Jalen Hurts. Olave is a speedster (4.39 40-yard dash at the combine) who had 13 touchdowns last season. This would be the Eagles’ third straight draft taking a wideout in Round 1, but it should be a priority if they want to get back to the playoffs.
Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
You’ve heard by now how bad the Chargers’ run defense was in 2021, and they’ve already taken steps to improve it, bringing in two defensive tackles via free agency in Sebastian Joseph-Day, whom coach Brandon Staley is familiar with from his time with the Rams, and Austin Johnson. That probably takes defensive tackle off the list of holes to fill in the draft.
So let’s turn the attention over to right tackle where Bryan Bulaga was just released. I don’t see Storm Norton as the answer there, but Penning can be. He’s fantastic as a run blocker, and offensive line coaches love him because he’s just plain mean and plays through the whistle. This would make back-to-back drafts with first-round tackles for the Chargers, and left tackle Rashawn Slater looked like a star as a rookie.
Kenny Pickett, QB, Pitt
The Saints tried and failed to add Deshaun Watson, so are they definitely committed to Jameis Winston now? I don’t think so. If the board shakes out this way — with all of the passers available — why shouldn’t they take Pickett? He’s the most NFL-ready of the bunch, leveling up last season with 42 touchdown passes and just seven interceptions. He is super accurate. He understands how to run an offense and lead a team. He could be the Saints’ future.
This is a strange quarterback class, and the range on when Pickett and Malik Willis come off the board varies from everyone I talk to in the league. No one knows for sure. I would not be shocked if either of them fell into New Orleans’ lap here.
play
1:00
Mel Kiper Jr. details why hand size is not important to NFL teams and how it will not have an effect on Kenny Pickett’s draft stock.
Devin Lloyd, ILB, Utah
Here’s a spot to fill Philadelphia’s void at off-ball linebacker. Lloyd was one of the best all-around defenders in college football last season, racking up 111 total tackles, eight sacks, 20 tackles for loss, four interceptions and a forced fumble. He has some juice as a blitzer and can cover tight ends and running backs in the passing game. Lloyd’s 4.66 40-yard dash at the combine means he doesn’t have the straight-line speed of former top-five pick Devin White (a linebacker I’ve compared him to), but I don’t think he should drop past the Eagles.
That’s three early starters for the Eagles here, with Lloyd, Chris Olave and Jermaine Johnson II.
Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
The structure of Mitch Trubisky’s new contract with Pittsburgh — just $5.25 million guaranteed over two years — means this organization absolutely could draft a quarterback here. Trubisky could be a bridge to Willis, who is raw but supremely talented. As I said when I projected him to the Steelers in my previous mock, he is the most talented quarterback in this class. Willis could compete with Trubisky, Mason Rudolph and Dwayne Haskins in training camp, but he wouldn’t be under immediate pressure to start in Week 1. That would be crucial for him.
If the Steelers go a different direction, they still have holes to plug along the offensive line and in the secondary.
Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
Unlike last year, the Patriots have been quiet in free agency, notably losing star cornerback J.C. Jackson to a huge-money deal while not adding any surefire starters. I see holes at right tackle, off-ball linebacker, defensive end, cornerback and wide receiver. They’ve also lost several coaches this offseason, including offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. And yet, Bill Belichick’s Patriots team won 10 games last season and still has a lot of really good players.
I projected Williams here in my debut mock in mid-January, and it is a nice fit. Williams, who tore his ACL in the national title game, had a tremendous season for the Crimson Tide, with 1,572 yards and 15 scores. He said at the combine that he’s ahead of his schedule in his recovery, but it’s possible he misses a chunk of the season while rehabbing. New England could afford to wait for a receiver with true No. 1 upside who could be a star for years to come. And we know Belichick has a history of taking Alabama stars.
Kenyon Green, G, Texas A&M
OK, so this isn’t the sexy pick that Packers fans will love after acquiring this selection in the Davante Adams trade, but check out Green Bay’s other pick at No. 28 before you yell at me. Green could step into the right guard spot vacated by Lucas Patrick’s signing with the Bears in free agency. Josh Myers, a second-round pick last year, looked solid at center, but adding another O-lineman is important, too. Green also has some versatility, as he played both guard and tackle for the Aggies.
Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia
Arizona let edge rusher Chandler Jones and wide receiver Christian Kirk leave for big deals in free agency, and it hasn’t added many external free agents so far. It could go a few different ways with this pick, including at wide receiver, which suddenly looks barren, and offensive line.
The Cardinals could be a fit for Jordan Davis if he makes it here, but his former Georgia teammate, Wyatt, could be a nice pick, too. The 305-pound tackle had a great workout at the combine, and he impressed impressed NFL scouts at the Senior Bowl. He had only five sacks in four seasons, but I think he could put up better numbers in the right pro scheme. He’ll help take some pressure off J.J. Watt.
Tyler Smith, OT/G, Tulsa
The Cowboys will look different in 2022, with Amari Cooper, Randy Gregory, Connor Williams, Cedrick Wilson and La’el Collins among the notable departures. That doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll be worse, but they do have to plug a couple of holes. I’m not sure an edge rusher makes sense if this is the way the board shakes out — could Dallas take a flier on David Ojabo, who tore an Achilles at his pro day last week? — but there are a couple of offensive linemen who could play immediately. And with Tyron Smith and Zack Martin both over 30, the Cowboys should reprioritize the line.
Smith could play guard or tackle, and in this scenario he’d slot in to Williams’ left guard spot. Zion Johnson is the other possibility, and he could even play some center.
Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State
Buffalo released Cole Beasley and brought in Jamison Crowder as an option out of the slot, but Crowder isn’t likely to be part of the Bills’ long-term plans. Dotson would be. Where would he help most? The Bills ranked last in the league in average yards after the catch (4.3) last season. Dotson is an explosive playmaker who is a threat to score on every touch. He had 1,182 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2021.
The Bills have had a great offseason so far, so this is a luxury pick. Dotson, though, could help as a rookie.
Zion Johnson, G/C, Boston College
If Tennessee wants to continue to pound the ball in the run game with Derrick Henry, it has to have a great offensive line. The Titans could upgrade at guard with Johnson, who spent time at multiple positions in college. He didn’t allow any quarterback pressures while playing guard in 2021, and he’s stout as a run blocker.
Even after adding Robert Woods, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Titans picked a wideout here. Treylon Burks and Jahan Dotson could be in play.
Breece Hall, RB, Iowa State
A running back in the first round? You know I don’t love this. I don’t have a huge problem, though, because … just look at the Bucs’ depth chart. If they’re not bringing back Leonard Fournette or Ronald Jones, who’s going to carry the ball and serve as Tom Brady’s insurance target out of the backfield? With this selection, Tampa Bay general manager Jason Licht and coach Bruce Arians could get their choice of the entire running back class.
Hall would get the chance to be the lead back from Day 1. He had 3,044 rushing yards and 41 rushing scores over the past two seasons, adding 59 catches. His 4.39 40-yard dash at the combine answered a lot of questions about his straight-line speed. Hall is the clear No. 1 back in this class.
Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
Is this better, Packers fans? Burks will almost certainly have to get a ton of early snaps, helping to fill the void left by the stunning trade of Davante Adams. Burks is a bigger receiver (6-foot-2) who has some run-after-the-catch ability; he can break tackles and run past defensive backs, though he doesn’t have blazing speed. He put up 1,104 yards and 11 touchdowns last season.
For Green Bay’s sake, it will have to hope Burks develops faster than Adams, who began his career with two up-and-down seasons before breaking out in Year 3. Aaron Rodgers needs help now. And I think the Packers could take multiple receivers with their picks in this draft.
Nakobe Dean, ILB, Georgia
This was a tough pick for me. It’s definitely a spot to watch for an offensive tackle, but if Miami pays up to sign free agent Terron Armstead (who visited the team on Monday) it doesn’t have to take one here. I also thought about wide receiver Skyy Moore, who is rising after his performance at the combine and could sneak into Round 1. Ultimately, I see a hole in the middle of the Dolphins’ defense that could be filled by a really good every-down linebacker.
Dean was the leader of the national champs’ defense, racking up 72 tackles with six sacks, two forced fumbles and two picks. He has the ability to cover tight ends, and he can blow up backs in the run game. He’s tough. Dean could be a steal for an already solid defense.
George Karlaftis, DE, Purdue
If the Chiefs want to keep Chris Jones at defensive tackle where he can wreck game plans from the interior, they have to add capable edge rushers. They ranked 29th in total sacks (31) last season and also 31st in rushing yards allowed per carry (4.8), even though they improved down the stretch. Karlaftis is an all-around defensive end who has some pass-rushing traits and can anchor down in the run game. He had only 4.5 sacks last season, but the tools are there.
You might have noticed that I haven’t projected David Ojabo, who tore his Achilles at the Michigan pro day last week, in Round 1. I love him as a prospect, but I think he’s more likely to go in the second round now. That’s a tough injury, and he might have to miss the entire 2022 season. The Chiefs need help right away.
Travis Jones, DT, Connecticut
The Bengals have significantly retooled their offensive line this offseason, adding four new starters in free agency. That takes some of the pressure off Joe Burrow (literally) in Year 3, as he was battered in his first two seasons. The Super Bowl runners-up can now afford to fill a different need with this pick, and I see Jones as a replacement for Larry Ogunjobi, who had a great 2021 season.
Jones is a 325-pound nose tackle with extremely long arms who can controls gaps with his strength. He was impressive at the Senior Bowl in January, boosting his stock into the top 50 picks. He could make sense for a Bengals team that is poised to compete for another AFC North title.
Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss
I’m going to stick with Corral to the Lions, but I keep hearing it’s not out of the question that he is the first quarterback off the board. He didn’t work out at the combine, so teams haven’t gotten a look at him since his ankle injury in early January. He’s going to throw for scouts at his pro day Wednesday, and he could create some buzz there. He throws a ball with some zip and is extremely tough, though he doesn’t have a huge frame (6-foot-2, 212 pounds). The biggest question revolves around the offense he ran in college; his coaches didn’t ask him to make many reads. There will be an adjustment in the NFL.
For the Lions, I just don’t see Jared Goff as the future. This allows them to get a potential quarterback of the future on a team-friendly five-year contract.
