Last week was not my finest hour. Did I really pick Iowa to cover against Ohio State?
I feel much more confident this week. Really. I do.
Last week: 5-6 against the spread
Season: 44-43-1 against the spread
(All point spreads come from BetMGM, click here for live odds, all kickoff times Eastern.)
Syracuse lost a heartbreaker at Clemson but gained a lot of respect nonetheless. QB Garrett Shrader is a gamer, and the defense got after Tigers QB DJ Uiagalelei. Clemson ultimately gashed the Orange on the ground. Notre Dame aspires to have that kind of rushing attack but it has been inconsistent for much of the season.
Syracuse 27, Notre Dame 20 Pick: Syracuse -2.5
No. 2 Ohio State (-15.5) at No. 13 Penn State, Noon, Fox
Penn State’s secondary, led by CB Joey Porter Jr., has helped Penn State rank No. 5 nationally in pass efficiency defense and gives the Nittany Lions hope of at least slowing down Buckeyes star C.J. Stroud and his receivers. It’s just hard to imagine Sean Clifford and Penn State’s offense will be able to keep up for four quarters.
Ohio State 35, Penn State 24 Pick: Penn State +15.5
No. 7 TCU (-7.5) at West Virginia, Noon, ESPN
TCU is going to lose at some point, and a trip to Morgantown on the heels of facing four straight Top 25 opponents has all the makings of a trap. But Max Duggan and the Horned Frogs love to take shots, and West Virginia’s defense largely fails to stop them. The Mountaineers rank 108th nationally in 20+ yard plays allowed (39).
TCU 38, West Virginia 28 Pick: TCU -7.5
No. 20 Cincinnati at UCF (-1), 3:30 p.m., ESPN
UCF has been all over the map this season. In their last two games, the Knights put up 70 points on Temple, then got blown out 34-13 at East Carolina. QB John Rhys Plumlee threw three picks and was sacked four times by the Pirates. Luke Fickell’s defense, led by LB Ivan Pace Jr., will come after him.
Cincinnati 21, UCF 16 Pick: Cincinnati +1
No. 1 Georgia (-22.5) vs. Florida, 3:30 p.m., CBS
Florida QB Anthony Richardson had a miserable first career start against the Dawgs last season. He’s going to need to ball out for the Gators to have any chance in this one. Florida’s defense is just horrendous (105th nationally), and Georgia’s offense is particularly problematic thanks to matchup nightmares like TE Brock Bowers.
Georgia 44, Florida 20 Pick: Georgia -22.5
It’s Oklahoma State’s third straight game against a ranked opponent, and the first two — a 43-40 overtime loss to TCU and a 41-34 comeback win over Texas — were both nailbiters. While QB Adrian Martinez’s uncertain status makes it difficult to handicap K-State, it seems like the Wildcats could catch the Cowboys when they’re a tad worn out.
Kansas State 33, Oklahoma State 30 Pick: Kansas State -1.5
Kentucky QB Will Levis is the more highly regarded NFL draft prospect, yet I have considerably more confidence in Vols star Hendon Hooker. Levis effectively spelled out at a news conference that the Wildcats’ plan is to string out long drives to keep the ball away from Tennessee’s offense, but the Vols score so quickly I’m not sure that matters.
Tennessee 41, Kentucky 27 Pick: Tennessee -12.5
Mel Tucker is 2-0 against Michigan, and the Spartans have won 10 of the last 14 editions of this rivalry — which seems like a setup for the Wolverines to take out a whole lot of frustration in this one. State’s offense is a shell of last year’s Kenneth Walker III-led version and its defense is 105th nationally. Whereas Michigan is good at everything.
Michigan 42, Michigan State 14 Pick: Michigan -22.5
No. 15 Ole Miss (-2.5) at Texas A&M, 7:30 p.m., SEC Network
This line is just begging us to take the 3-4 Aggies at home, and you know Jimbo wants this one badly after some of Lane Kiffin’s potshots. But I’ve watched too much of that dreadful offense and I can’t unsee it. The Aggies don’t have a dynamic quarterback like LSU’s Jayden Daniels, who exposed the flaws of Ole Miss’ previously untested offense.
Ole Miss 24, Texas A&M 20 Pick: Ole Miss -2.5
Pitt at No. 21 North Carolina (-3), 8 p.m., ACC Network
I’ve been saying for weeks that UNC is not as good as its record (6-1) and ranking. Vegas seems to agree with me given the Tar Heels are only three-point home favorites over a 4-3 Pitt team with losses to Georgia Tech and Louisville. But Panthers QB Kedon Slovis has not looked capable of exploiting UNC’s biggest weakness, its pass defense.
North Carolina 34, Pitt 27 Pick: North Carolina -3
Upset Special: UAB (-5.5) at FAU, 7 p.m., CBS Sports Network
I don’t have any Xs and Os insight on this one. I just saw that FAU is advertising this game as “The Biggest Halloween Party in Boca Raton,” and that sounds like a scary place to be if you’re 5.5-point favorite UAB.
It’s been 21 years since Tennessee finished in the AP top five. It had almost been that long since the Vols had beaten Alabama, too, but Saturday’s thrilling 52-49 win in Knoxville is allowing UT fans to dream big again. The advanced stats, meanwhile, are backing up the dreams.
In this week’s SP+ rankings, the Vols jumped to fifth. If they finish there, it would be their best ranking since 1999. This being a predictive ranking and not a measure of résumés, they are still behind Bama overall (though the gap is closing quickly). But considering they are now given at least 71% win probability in five of their final six regular-season games, the odds of a huge season — first 10-win season since 2007? first 11-win season since 2001? first 12-win season since 1998? — are only increasing.
Below are this week’s SP+ rankings. What is SP+? In a single sentence, it’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.
SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.
This week’s movers
Let’s take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings. (Note: We’re looking at ratings, not rankings.)
Moving up
Here are the 10 teams whose ratings rose the most this week:
Hawai’i: up 4.9 adjusted points per game (ranking rose from 131st to 127th)
Syracuse: up 4.3 (from 57th to 38th)
Old Dominion: up 3.9 (from 90th to 85th)
South Alabama: up 3.5 (from 66th to 50th)
UCF: up 3.2 (from 38th to 25th)
New Mexico State: up 3.2 (from 127th to 125th)
Arizona: up 3.1 (from 96th to 88th)
TCU: up 3.0 (from 23rd to 13th)
Charlotte: up 2.6 (from 125th to 122nd)
Bowling Green: up 2.6 (from 124th to 121st)
Moving down
Here are the 10 teams whose ratings fell the most:
Notre Dame: down 4.9 points (ranking fell from 27th to 43rd)
BYU: down 4.4 (from 52nd to 70th)
NC State: down 3.4 (from 32nd to 41st)
Alabama: down 3.1 (from second to third)
UConn: down 3.1 (from 122nd to 126th)
Coastal Carolina: down 3.0 (from 46th to 61st)
Liberty: down 2.8 (from 72nd to 82nd)
Mississippi State: down 2.7 (from 12th to 20th)
Texas: down 2.5 (from fifth to sixth)
Colorado State: down 2.5 (from 126th to 128th)
Conference rankings
Here are FBS’ 10 conferences, ranked by average SP+:
1. SEC: 13.1 average SP+ (34.4 average offensive SP+, 21.4 average defensive SP+) 2. Big 12: 11.9 average SP+ (35.4 offense, 23.5 defense) 3. Big Ten: 9.8 average SP+ (30.0 offense, 20.3 defense) 4. Pac-12: 5.7 average SP+ (32.4 offense, 26.8 defense) 5. ACC: 3.7 average SP+ (29.5 offense, 25.8 defense) 6. AAC: 1.1 average SP+ (29.0 offense, 27.8 defense) 7. Sun Belt: 0.2 average SP+ (27.3 offense, 27.1 defense) 8. Conference USA: -10.7 average SP+ (24.4 offense, 35.1 defense) 9. Mountain West: -14.0 average SP+ (17.0 offense, 31.0 defense) 10. MAC: -14.5 average SP+ (21.5 offense, 35.9 defense)
We have long taken to referring to these 10 conferences as the Power Five and Group of Five, but with those averages, I think we need a new set of tiers for this season: Power Three, Middle Four and Faraway Three. The Sun Belt currently ranks seventh, but its average is almost as close to second place as eighth. And of the 32 teams ranked 100th or worse at the moment, 26 reside in one of the bottom three conferences. (Three others are independents.)
Meanwhile, 17 of the top 25 teams are from either the SEC, Big 12 or Big Ten, and another four are from the Pac-12. So maybe it’s Power Four and Middle Three?
Résumé SP+
Since the College Football Playoff rankings are on the horizon, I’m also including Résumé SP+ rankings in this piece each week.
As mentioned above, SP+ is intended to be a power rating, not a resume evaluation tool, but Résumé SP+ attempts to fill that latter gap. It is a look at two things: (1) how the average SP+ top five team would be projected to perform against your schedule (in terms of scoring margin) and (2) how your scoring margin compares to (1). Throw in a seven-point penalty for every loss a team has suffered, and you can say that this is what the CFP rankings would look like if SP+ were in charge.
(Note: Because of the high bar teams have to clear in getting compared to an average top-five team, and because of the loss adjustment, almost every team here ends up with a negative score. It is what it is.)
And now, 23 Final Thoughts from a Saturday that began at 11 a.m. Dallas time in front of 90,000 at the Cotton Bowl and ended at 11:30 p.m. Palo Alto time in front of a few thousand half-awake fans at Stanford Stadium who unwittingly (and unfortunately for them) saw the most incredible ending of the whole darn day.
1. CBS has apparently hired a psychic to run its programming department. Two years in a row, they’ve used their one prime-time pick of the season to air an Alabama-Texas A&M matchup. Both years, the Tide were massive favorites. Both years, it came down to the final play. The Aggies won on a walk-off field goal in 2021. The Tide survived on an A&M incompletion in 2022.
And now, those CBS suits are about to be big winners again. Next week, they get the biggest Alabama-Tennessee game since Nick Saban was still coaching the Dolphins.
2. Fans under the age of around 25 might not even realize that the Tide and Vols are traditional rivals, mainly because Saban’s program has won the past 15 meetings and generally fought in a different weight class than the long-dormant Vols. But lo and behold, these two will meet in Knoxville next week both with undefeated records and top-8 rankings, and for once, Alabama may be the more vulnerable team.
Especially if Heisman winner Bryce Young can’t play.
3. Alabama’s 24-20 escape against ostensibly overmatched A&M (3-3, 1-2 SEC) was a weird, weird game.
In Week 4 of the 2022 college football season, the teams that hadn’t yet looked vulnerable finally did so (except Minnesota, anyway). Georgia dilly-dallied for long periods in its win over Kent State, Michigan had to lean heavily on Blake Corum to stay ahead ahead of Maryland, USC needed all of 60 minutes to fend off Oregon State, and in the end, 12 of the remaining 33 unbeaten FBS teams lost, five as favorites.
Now that the ground has settled and all of the top teams (except Minnesota) have had at least one close call, the SP+ ratings look … about as they did before the season. Alabama’s back on top, Ohio State and Georgia are nearly tied for second, and of the teams in the current SP+ top 10, nine were projected 13th or higher in the preseason. (The exception? You guessed it: Minnesota!)
That’s not to say nothing has changed, however. The Big 12’s brilliant early showing has given it five teams in the top 23 and eight in the top 40 (and has prevented Oklahoma from falling after Saturday night’s loss to Kansas State). Out west, the Pac-12 has shown all sorts of life, jumping the ACC in the averages and landing five teams in the top 25. Beneath the surface, there is plenty of change afoot.
What is SP+? In a single sentence, it’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.
SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.
This week’s movers
After four weeks, nearly half the SP+ formula is based on actual performances instead of preseason projections. While that makes it rather impressive that so few teams have changed at the very top of the rankings, it does mean that lots of teams moved up and down significantly this week.
Moving up
Here are the 12 teams that moved up at least 11 spots after Week 4:
Kansas: up 29 spots from 81st to 52nd
Coastal Carolina: up 20 spots from 71st to 51st
South Alabama: up 19 spots from 83rd to 64th
West Virginia: up 18 spots from 58th to 40th
Georgia Southern: up 18 spots from 104th to 86th
Illinois: up 16 spots from 63rd to 47th
Western Kentucky: up 16 spots from 64th to 48th
Texas State: up 14 spots from 124th to 110th
California: up 12 spots from 75th to 63rd
Temple: up 12 spots from 123rd to 111th
Washington: up 11 spots from 35th to 24th
James Madison: up 11 spots from 79th to 68th
As you might glean from that list, the movement is a combination of both stellar Week 4 performances (hello, Coastal, WVU, WKU, Temple, and others) and the increased weight in 2022 performances to date (Kansas, Illinois, Cal, Washington). And if you were finding some gambling value in Kansas this season, that is probably about to come to an end. The books and metrics have adjusted.
Moving down
On the flipside, here are the 10 teams that moved down at least 12 spots:
Boise State: down 33 spots from 45th to 78th
North Carolina: down 23 spots from 44th to 67th
Virginia Tech: down 18 spots from 61st to 79th
Miami: down 18 spots from 27th to 45th
Arizona State: down 17 spots from 48th to 65th
Fresno State: down 15 spots from 55th to 70th
Wisconsin: down 14 spots from 15th to 29th
Wyoming: down 13 spots from 94th to 107th
Boston College: down 13 spots from 80th to 93rd
Vanderbilt: down 12 spots from 87th to 99th
After almost giving up more points to Notre Dame than the Fighting Irish’s first three opponents had combined, North Carolina has plummeted to 113th in defensive SP+, which is how you almost fall out of the overall top 70 with a top-10 offense.
Meanwhile, Boise State … yikes.
Conference rankings
1. SEC: 13.7 average SP+ (34.1 average offensive SP+, 20.6 average defensive SP+) 2. Big 12: 13.2 average (35.1 offense, 21.9 defense) 3. Big Ten: 10.6 average (31.1 offense, 20.4 defense) 4. Pac-12: 5.8 average (30.4 offense, 24.6 defense) 5. ACC: 4.0 average (30.3 offense, 26.2 defense) 6. AAC: 1.0 average (28.5 offense, 27.5 defense) 7. Sun Belt: -3.2 average (24.9 offense, 28.1 defense) 8. Conference USA: -8.7 average (25.0 offense, 33.7 defense) 9. Mountain West: -10.3 average (20.1 offense, 30.3 defense) 10. MAC: -12.0 average (23.6 offense, 35.5 defense)
Nine of the Big 12’s 10 teams have risen in the rankings since the start of the season. Kansas has risen by 51 spots, and five other teams have risen by double digits. The SEC is doing fine overall — seven of the top 17 teams, only one outside the top 60 — but its averages are sliding a bit because of drops from teams like Texas A&M, and the Big 12 has damn near reeled it in for the top spot.
Meanwhile, as mentioned above, the Pac-12 has jumped the ACC into fourth place overall. The top three conferences still have some distance on everyone else, but it has been a lovely bounceback year to date out west.
Once the games end on college football Saturday, my work begins. That’s when I pore over the coaches’ film, taking notes and writing reports …
Here are 10 prospects who impressed over this past weekend, along with an all-22 clip (or two or three) to illustrate what makes each an intriguing NFL prospect:
With thousands of prospects on the radar for the 2023 NFL Draft, I rarely have the time to focus on freshmen or sophomores who aren’t yet draft-eligible (Bowers can turn pro after next season). But it is impossible to overlook the impact and talent of Bowers, who announced himself as a star last season as a freshman and is only getting better this year as a sophomore.
Against South Carolina on Saturday, Bowers split his 33 offensive snaps between the slot (17), inline (11) and out wide (5), as the Georgia offense used him across its formations. All the ways he can impact the game were on display for his three touchdowns (two receiving and one rushing).
The first score came early in the first quarter on a reverse from the 5-yard line. Who runs a reverse with a tight end, especially in the red zone where the field is condensed and defenders are closer to the line of scrimmage? Well, Georgia does, because it has a talent like Bowers with the speed to eliminate those pursuit angles.
The second score was a back-shoulder fade with Bowers again lined up wide. In the clip below, you’ll notice that the cornerback has tight coverage and gets his hands on the football, but Bowers displays his dominance — he snatches the football and has the wherewithal to make sure a foot (maybe two; it was close) stayed inbounds.
The third touchdown showcased what really separates Bowers from most tight ends. Yes, it is a coverage bust that leaves Bowers wide open in the middle of the field, but few tight ends have the skills to turn this catch into a 78-yard touchdown. Bowers makes two defensive backs miss with his balance and power and accelerates to top speed quickly to outrace everyone else. His ability after the catch creates flashbacks of Travis Kelce or George Kittle.
I’m a supporter of the NFL rule that says players must be three years removed from high school to be draft-eligible because 99 percent of 18- and 19-year-olds aren’t ready for the NFL. And now with NIL, players will have a chance to earn money while they develop at the college level. However, Bowers is part of the one percent who could be scoring touchdowns on Sundays right now if given the chance.
I avoid speaking in absolutes when it comes to the draft, especially this early. But it’s not a hot take to say if the draft happened tomorrow and he was eligible, Bowers would be a lock as a top-10 pick.
Olu Fashanu, LT, Penn State (6-6, 315)
Most evaluators agree: This offensive tackle draft class appears lackluster in terms of high-end talent. But Fashanu is one of the up-and-coming youngsters in college football who could help change that narrative. He has already been a clear upgrade at left tackle for the Nittany Lions over Rasheed Walker, who was drafted this past April by the Green Bay Packers.
Fashanu was dominant — especially in pass protection — against Penn State’s first two opponents, which made his matchup on Saturday with Auburn a must-see for NFL scouts. And Fashanu handled himself very well against a defensive line with several future pros. Fashanu even shut out Derick Hall, a potential day-two draft pick, when he was pitted against the senior pass rusher.
With only four career starts, Fashanu is still relatively young — and that pops up at times, especially in the run game. But he has the wide blocking base and athletic body control to answer whatever rushers throw at him off the edge. Fashanu can anchor down versus power and also shows the hand strength to own the point of attack. He is still building his resume, but the early results are very positive. Based on what he has put on tape already, Fashanu is on a first-round trajectory.
Zach Evans, RB, Ole Miss (6-0, 215)
The No. 31 player on my early draft board, Evans made the move from TCU to Ole Miss this offseason and, as expected, has been the featured playmaker in Lane Kiffin’s offense. Against Georgia Tech on Saturday, he led the Rebels with 134 yards rushing (7.4 yards per carry) and a pair of touchdowns.
The play above is beautifully designed and blocked, but Evans’ explosive athleticism is what turns it into a 26-yard touchdown. His cut-and-go acceleration makes the defenders look like they are moving at half-speed and allows Evans to sneak through the hole just as it starts to tighten. Once he reaches the second level, Evans displays the vision and speed to eliminate pursuit angles and finish in the end zone.
There will be tougher tests on the schedule once Ole Miss reaches SEC play, but the Georgia Tech defense had been allowing under three yards per carry entering last weekend. Texas’ Bijan Robinson (who just had a dominant 183-yard performance against UTSA) is the draft’s top running back, but Evans and Alabama’s Jahmyr Gibbs aren’t far behind.
GO DEEPER
Scouting Zach Evans: What to know about Ole Miss RB ahead of 2023 NFL Draft
Like I mentioned in last week’s NFL Draft Watch, Jones has been one of the season’s most impactful transfer prospects. And that continued this past weekend during Purdue’s loss in the final seconds to Syracuse — Jones finished with 11 receptions for 188 yards, including this fourth-quarter, 55-yard touchdown:
Lined up at the top of the screen, Jones cooks cornerback Garrett Williams with pure speed that the defender can’t match. Quarterback Adrian O’Connell, who had an up-and-down performance Saturday, delivers the ball when his receiver and the corner are hip-to-hip. Jones then does an outstanding job stacking, tracking the ball and creating late separation by accelerating through the catch.
After he was underutilized for two seasons in an anemic Iowa offense, Jones was a borderline draft pick for NFL evaluators entering the season — he had 21 catches for 323 yards and three TDs as a Hawkeye in 2021. As the featured weapon in the Boilermakers’ air attack, though, Jones already has 32 receptions for 474 yards and five touchdowns, in only three games with his new team. His route athleticism and ball skills are NFL-quality and plays like the one seen above (against a future NFL corner) are why his draft stock continues to rise.
DJ Johnson, edge, Oregon (6-4, 265)
For some prospects, it takes time and tinkering for them to approach their potential. Johnson falls in that category. After starting his college career at Miami (Fla.), he bounced between offense and defense with the Ducks — as a junior in 2021, Johnson logged 98 snaps on offense and 152 snaps on defense, while also seeing time on special teams. Prior to this season, Johnson moved to defensive end full-time and earned some attention after a high ranking on Bruce Feldman’s “Freaks List.”
Johnson has always had intriguing traits with his athleticism and length, but now he is starting to put everything together on the field.
Lined up as a wide-nine rusher in this clip from Saturday’s contest against BYU, Johnson creates awesome momentum with his first two steps, then converts his speed to power to obliterate the tight end and flush quarterback Jaren Hall out of the pocket. Instead of ending up on the ground with the tight end, Johnson keeps his balance and chases down the QB.
Johnson, a sixth-year senior, eventually will be a 25-year-old NFL rookie and was once part of the same high school recruiting class as already-established NFL players like Najee Harris, Tua Tagovailoa and a few dozen others. Although he is older for a “breakthrough” player, Johnson has the size and athletic profile — along with the budding technique — to be a draft riser.
In a back-and-forth battle, Wilson was the X-factor for the Seminoles in a 35-31 win over Louisville. An Arizona State transfer, Wilson had one career touchdown catch prior to last Friday night and never had more than four catches or 70 yards in a single game. Against the Cardinals? Wilson finished with seven catches for 149 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
He had several impressive grabs worth sharing, but this is a play that won’t show up in his stat sheet:
Lined up at the top of the screen against maybe the best cornerback he will face all season, Kei’Trel Clark, Wilson simply overwhelms his defender. The big receiver quickly eats up the cushion and stems the corner before stacking inside with subtle footwork to neutralize the defender’s leverage. As a result, Clark is forced to dive tackle Wilson and Florida State takes the free 15 yards on a pass interference penalty.
Wilson does a great job on one-cut routes (slants, posts, etc.) where he can accelerate out of his cut to separate downfield or welcome early contact. He consistently gives his quarterback a large target and uses his length to steal the ball from defenders.
An issue with Wilson at Arizona State was focus drops, but it wasn’t a problem in this game. I’ll be eager to evaluate the redshirt sophomore the rest of the season to see if he can sustain this type of impact.
A safety prospect who doesn’t receive enough national attention, Robinson has the talent to be one of the first three seniors drafted at his position in April. The South Carolina transfer will be dinged throughout the process because of his lack of ideal size — he’s under 5-foot-11, 200 pounds and has sub-30-inch arms. However, he is a sudden athlete who cleanly transfers his weight to make plays all over the field.
Against Louisville on Friday night, Robinson finished with six tackles and did a nice job in coverage, including on this pass breakup:
Quarterback Malik Cunningham sees the corner blitz in the boundary and bets on his receiver to beat the safety in space, but Robinson doesn’t panic. He stays controlled with his lower-body twitch to maintain route spacing, read the throw and arrive with impeccable timing to disrupt the catch.
Cam Jones, LB, Indiana (6-1, 220)
The senior class of linebackers is underwhelming at the top, but Jones is an underrated prospect. The Memphis native finished with a game-best 13 tackles in the Hoosiers’ overtime win over Western Kentucky on Saturday, and he produced numerous highlight-worthy plays on film.
On this second-and-6 play in the fourth quarter, the Hilltoppers use read-option (with the tight end lined up in the backfield opposite the read side). Using his 4.6 speed, Jones reacts with the motioning tight end and mirrors him all the way down the line of scrimmage.
With a pair of receivers blocking downfield, the tight end has a chance at a big play if he can make the linebacker miss, but Jones is one of the more physical and sure tacklers in college football. He uses his vice grip hands not only to slam the tight end to the ground, but to force a fumble with the violent tackle.
Whether he is standing up ball carriers in the hole or chasing down plays by the numbers, Jones has the backfield vision, read-react athleticism and finishing skills that make him one of the better run-defending linebacker prospects in the 2023 draft class.
Eric Gray, RB, Oklahoma (5-10, 214)
After Gray flashed his impressive talent at Tennessee, I was excited to see him in Oklahoma’s offense following his transfer prior to the 2021 season. Although he served as Kennedy Brooks’ backup last season, Gray was my No. 3 senior running back this summer because of that talent and, so far, his play in 2022 has lived up to the ranking.
On Saturday, Gray had his most productive game in a Sooners’ uniform as Oklahoma stomped Nebraska. He finished with 11 rushes for 113 yards (10.3 yards per carry) and a pair of touchdowns. One of those TDs came on this 16-yard scamper, which showed his next-level abilities:
Gray uses just enough patience to allow the lead block to do his job and displays the lower-body quickness and coordination to squeeze through the hole. Once at the second level, he puts the safety in conflict by pushing upfield, then cuts back outside with burst to leave the defender in his dust.
Now the starter for the Sooners, Gray is averaging 7.7 yards per carry through three games and has shown the footwork and vision that should translate well to the pro level.
GO DEEPER
Scouting the 2023 NFL Draft running backs: Bijan Robinson paces a dynamic class
Although the back half of the Louisville defense had trouble slowing down Florida State, Abdullah put together a strong performance in the front seven that won’t go unnoticed by NFL scouts. He finished with eight tackles, six pressures, 2.0 tackles for loss, a half sack, two passes defended and one interception.
Abdullah was everywhere for the Cardinals on Friday night. Playing a stand-up edge rusher role, his first-step quickness allowed him to consistently win the corner and pressure the pocket. He also did well when dropping and playing in space.
On this play right before halftime, Abdullah does a great job to read and drive on the screen before the blockers can reach him. He breaks down and makes a strong open-field tackle for a six-yard loss. His interception came two plays later.
With his tweener size, Abdullah won’t be an easy projection for every scheme. But his ability to affect the game will appeal to NFL coaches and could get him into the mid-round discussion as a prospect.
(Top photo of Brock Bowers: Dale Zanine / USA Today)
Georgia coach Kirby Smart offered some of his strongest comments yet Wednesday about wanting to move the Georgia-Florida football game to the schools’ campuses rather than playing it in Jacksonville, Florida, every season.
During an interview on SEC Network at SEC media days Wednesday, Smart said having the game in Jacksonville, where it has been played every season but two since 1933, hurts recruiting because under NCAA rules prospects aren’t allowed to attend the neutral-site game.
When Georgia is designated as the home team in Jacksonville, it plays just three SEC home games in Athens, Georgia, that season. It gives the Bulldogs fewer opportunities to host recruits on campus.
“I’m competing against [coaches] all across the SEC who host recruits at their biggest games,” Smart said. “When Auburn plays at Alabama, guess where the recruits are? When LSU and Alabama play, that’s where the biggest recruits want to go. It’s an opportunity for us to bring these kids, who fly in from all over the country — what game do they want to come see Georgia play? They’d like to see Georgia play Florida, but they can’t do that.
“It’s very important. Recruiting is very important. … I just can’t get a Florida coach to agree with me about [moving the game].”
Last year, the Jacksonville City Council approved a contract extension that will keep the SEC contest there through at least the 2023 season. There is also an option to play it there in 2024 and 2025. This season, the Bulldogs and Gators are scheduled to play at TIAA Bank Field on Oct. 29.
New Gators coach Billy Napier, speaking to reporters at SEC media days, said he wanted to coach in the game before forming an opinion about where it should be played.
“I want to experience the game first,” Napier said. “I’d like to see that game in Jacksonville, experience that game, before I have an opinion on it. There’s a lot of credibility to both [arguments]. The home-and-home obviously would be fantastic, but there’s also some tradition there. There’s a rivalry there. Time will tell.”
MIRAMAR BEACH, Fla. — When presented with two choices — one sensible and exciting and one completely idiotic — the debate shouldn’t last long. The idiotic choice should be punted and the sensible, exciting idea should be adopted.
Once the choices were narrowed to two, the discussion about the SEC’s potential regular-season scheduling options once Oklahoma and Texas join the league (in 2025 at the latest) should have taken about five seconds. Yet SEC athletic directors are still debating which model is best after two days of discussions. In any profession, it’s always possible to get so deep in the weeds that the obvious decision doesn’t seem so obvious. That’s what’s happening on the shore of the Gulf of Mexico this week.
SEC presidents and chancellors will join the ADs Thursday. These people have a lot more to worry about. So hopefully they are less likely to get lost in the minutiae. And hopefully, they’ll make the correct decision.
I bet if I lay out the options without identifying which is the good one and which is the stupid one you’ll pick the better one without blinking. Let’s try it.
• One option would be a divisionless eight-game conference schedule that features one fixed opponent for each school while rotating the other seven games throughout the remainder of the conference’s (soon-to-be) 16-team membership. This plan would protect Alabama–Auburn (the Iron Bowl) but not Auburn-Georgia (The Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry) or Alabama-Tennessee (The Third Saturday In October). Florida and Georgia would play annually, but Florida and Tennessee would not. Oklahoma and Texas would play annually. Texas and Texas A&M would not.
• The other option is a divisionless nine-game conference schedule that features three fixed opponents for each school while rotating the other six games through the remainder of the conference. This would allow Alabama-Auburn, Auburn-Georgia, Alabama-Tennessee, Oklahoma-Texas and Texas-Texas A&M to be played annually. It also might stoke the fires of a few emerging rivalries such as LSU-Texas A&M. It could potentially create new ones as well. For example, it’s a little weird that Arkansas and Oklahoma — flagship universities in bordering states — have played only 15 times since 1899 and only three times since 1978. Perhaps each could be part of the other’s trio.
Did you spot the dumb one? Of course you did. It’s the 1-7 model. If a bunch of allegedly intelligent people got together and decided that Texas and Texas A&M — or Georgia and Auburn or Alabama and Tennessee — shouldn’t play annually when a reasonable possibility exists, then whoever voted to adopt that model should find a new line of work. They lack the common sense to sell football games for a living, and that calls into question their decision-making in every other matter as well. The Big Ten is likely about to change its scheduling model in the near future. Can you imagine that league’s leaders saying “We don’t need Michigan and Michigan State to play EVERY year?” Of course not.
The 3-6 model is the only logical choice. So why is anyone fighting it?
The resistance is two-fold. Some schools would rather take the short view than make a choice that ultimately will sell more season-ticket packages on their campus and make them more money through the SEC’s future media rights deals.
Part of the opposition comes from leaders at certain schools who fear the zero-sum nature of adding a conference game. That means half the league is guaranteed one more loss per season. With nonconference games, those schools at the bottom of the standings can try to schedule their way to six wins and a bowl game in a mostly empty stadium in a medium-sized city. Another conference game means those schools have to work that much harder to get to .500. These schools are so afraid their teams won’t be quite mediocre enough that they’re trying to block a model that embraces progress and tradition all at once.
But that isn’t the only loser thinking standing in the way of you getting better, with more interesting games to watch on television during the regular season. There is a fear among a few in the league that if the College Football Playoff doesn’t expand, moving to nine conference games could hurt the SEC’s chances to keep producing national champs. This is silly. First, the odds of the CFP staying at four are slim because the only league that even likes four is the SEC. An early expansion was blocked in part because the SEC’s acquisition of Oklahoma and Texas freaked out the leaders of a few other leagues, but after a cooling-off period, those leagues will come back to the same place they were before the Oklahoma and Texas news broke. Most of them need expansion. And if you’ve been reading this space, you know that the SEC either wants an eight-best format or a 12-team format with six automatic qualifying spots for conference champs. Either one would allow plenty of room for SEC programs with a few schedule blemishes to make the field. And in the unlikely event the CFP stays at four beyond the 2025 season, a nine-game schedule probably wouldn’t reduce the SEC’s odds of producing a national champion in most years. If anything, it probably would increase the likelihood of a two-loss team getting admitted to a four-team system — which has yet to happen in the eight-season history of the CFP.
The good news on this front is the SEC doesn’t have to make a decision this week. It can push this for a little longer and wait to see if some clarity emerges on the next CFP format. The new schedule format needs to be in place when Oklahoma and Texas arrive. That’s 2025 at the latest. We’ll refrain from any speculation as to whether those two could buy their way out of the Big 12 early; so far, there has been no indication they can. But the SEC also might want to have the new format ready for 2024, when the league’s new media rights deal with ESPN begins. Doing so probably would require a decision on a model by late 2022 or early 2023. Pushing until 2025 would buy another year. “We get to set our own timetable here,” SEC commissioner Greg Sankey said Wednesday.
For the schools that crave bowl eligibility, it would be wise to remember that the schools make the NCAA’s rules. So these schools could simply lobby to change the rule for bowl eligibility. They’d likely find plenty of allies in the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and Pac-12. The Group of 5 leagues would understandably be dead set against lowering the standard for bowl eligibility. But answer this question honestly: Which Boca Raton Bowl would you rather watch while wrapping presents/casually betting second-half totals? Do you want Western Kentucky–Appalachian State or Mississippi State–Minnesota?
And please, don’t even start with the arguments about the need for bowls to be a reward for a great season. That was true when there were eight bowls. It’s laughable when there are more than 40. They are television inventory for our entertainment, and our viewing habits suggest that adding a few more could make some more coin for ESPN.
The supporters of the 3-6 model also likely would extend an olive branch to those schools by eliminating the requirement to book at least one Power 5 school in the nonconference schedule. So Georgia could keep scheduling Georgia Tech annually and a Clemson/Florida State type in most years — which it would even with a nine-game SEC schedule — and Arkansas could schedule Rice instead of Oklahoma State or Notre Dame. I don’t think that would make Arkansas fans happy. Nor do I think it would make them buy more tickets. But it would make 5-7 a lot less likely. (What’s odd about all this is that the schedules for Arkansas and Mississippi State would usually be easier without being in the meat grinder that is the current SEC West.)
For years, fans of Big 12, Big Ten and Pac-12 schools have surmised that the SEC would always stick at eight conference games to minimize the possibility of losses for CFP purposes. The group within the SEC that wants to move to nine conference games doesn’t care about any outside pressure to homogenize scheduling models across conferences. This is market-driven. The current model — eight conference games within two seven-team divisions and one permanent crossover opponent — has caused home schedules to grow stale. That has produced lower season ticket sales at some schools and no-shows at places that still sell all their season tickets. (No-shows eventually turn into no-sales.) Texas A&M has been in the league for 10 seasons and played football at Georgia once. The Bulldogs still haven’t played an SEC game at Kyle Field.
What’s interesting is the staleness of the schedule was a result of the SEC trying too hard to protect tradition. Keeping Alabama-Tennessee an annual game was the main reason both cross-divisional opponents didn’t rotate each year. Now the SEC has a chance to protect that tradition and create more variety.
If its school leaders can get out of their own way and make the obvious choice.
(Photo of Alabama quarterback Bryce Young scrambling for a first down against Tennessee: Gary Cosby Jr. / USA Today)
The jet lag from Sunday’s flight home from the 2022 NFL draft in Las Vegas has barely worn off, but I’m already digging in on the 2023 class. I’m that excited about this group. After only one quarterback was selected in the first 73 picks this year, we could see a handful in the first round next April. There are also truly special prospects on the defensive side of the ball, and I think we could see five-plus receivers in Round 1 yet again. So let’s project the early scope of the first round.
Now, this is an extremely early prediction. I haven’t spent much time with the 2023 class’ tape yet, and a lot of this is based on what I’ve seen while watching prospects in person over the past two seasons and early buzz around the league. Expect big changes between now and next April. My 2022 way-too-early mock, for example, featured 10 prospects who ultimately were first-rounders and predicted five top-10 picks — but eight players listed ultimately didn’t enter the draft, and 14 others weren’t selected in Round 1. It’s still 12 months out, and we have a full college season and a long pre-draft process ahead.
Then there is the draft order, which I did not decide. We opted to project the order using the inverse of Super Bowl odds from Caesars Sportsbook, though we broke some ties and tweaked the end of the order to ensure seven teams from each conference in the playoffs. That puts Houston on the clock to get things going in Round 1.
Note: Underclassmen are noted with an asterisk. Traded picks are shown below as well.
C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State*
The Texans believe in quarterback Davis Mills, but if they actually end up picking No. 1 next April, something went terribly awry for Mills during his sophomore season. Stroud has a big arm, completing 71.9% of his passes for 4,435 yards, 44 touchdowns and just six interceptions in 2021. The third-year sophomore has only 12 career starts, though, so all eyes will be on him this season.
Bryce Young, QB, Alabama*
Detroit wisely focused on the rest of its roster last week, but it will likely have to find its franchise quarterback in 2023 and has a prime chance to do so at No. 2 with Young still on the board. A former five-star recruit, Young is only 6-foot but has solid accuracy and plenty of mobility in the pocket. And he clearly has chemistry with receiver Jameson Williams, one of the Lions’ first-round picks this year, considering nearly a third of Young’s 4,872 passing yards in 2021 went Williams’ way. Jared Goff’s dead money dips to just $10 million next offseason, making the Lions’ QB easier to move on from.
Will Anderson Jr., DE, Alabama*
Anderson is probably the best player in the 2023 draft class and is here at No. 3 only because the teams picking at Nos. 1 and 2 need quarterbacks. The 6-foot-4, 243-pounder is a special player with elite traits and great burst to the quarterback. He led the nation in sacks (17.5), tackles for loss (34.5) and pressures (79) last year. Pairing Anderson with Jermaine Johnson II (a first-rounder this year) could give New York one of the least expensive yet best overall edge tandems in the NFL.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State*
If you don’t know the name yet, go watch some Rose Bowl highlights. Smith-Njigba caught 15 passes for 347 yards (a bowl game record) and three touchdowns in Ohio State’s win against Utah — putting him over 1,600 receiving yards for the season. It’s very possible he is a better prospect than Garrett Wilson or Chris Olave, who both just went in the top 11 picks. The Jags signed Christian Kirk and Zay Jones in March, but they still need a true WR1 for Trevor Lawrence. JSN can be that guy.
Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia*
Another Georgia defender? The 6-foot-3, 310-pounder is extremely disruptive and would help shore up Atlanta’s run defense while providing a pass-rush spark from the interior. And yes, Grady Jarrett just signed an extension, but he will be 30 years old when the draft comes back around. Carter is the best player available here and a difference-maker.
As for quarterback, it’s a very possible direction for the Falcons. But Stroud and Young are off the board, and I get the sense that they would like to develop Desmond Ridder and give him a chance if there isn’t another clear and obvious upgrade on the table.
Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida*
The Panthers, however, should start scouting the 2023 signal-callers. I’m not so sure they view Matt Corral as a long-term option, and Sam Darnold will be off the books after this season. Plus, Carolina could have a new regime in place, especially if it’s picking this early again. Now, Richardson is a huge projection — the 6-foot-4, 236-pound passer played in just eight games and started once last year — and has some turnover issues. But he’s extremely talented and poised for a breakout season in his first as a full-time starter.
Jordan Addison, WR, Pittsburgh*
Addison entered the transfer portal, so where he’ll be suiting up this season is still up in the air. He was among the best receivers in college football last season with 100 catches for 1,593 yards and 17 trips to the end zone. The Bears opted to wait until Round 3 to draft a receiver (Velus Jones Jr.) and still need a legitimate outside starter opposite Darnell Mooney.
Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
The Giants didn’t pick up Daniel Jones’ fifth-year option, which leaves the QB seat up for grabs next season. Levis needs to find more consistency, but he has a live arm and a big 6-foot-3, 232-pound frame. He has thrived in the quick game at Kentucky, with a lot of run-pass options and screen-type stuff, but there are some Josh Allen-like traits here for new Giants coach Brian Daboll. Oh, and Levis connected with receiver Wan’Dale Robinson — whom the Giants drafted in Round 2 this year — 104 times last season.
play
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Mel Kiper Jr. breaks down which players teams should keep their eye on for the 2023 NFL draft.
Tyler Van Dyke, QB, Miami*
Van Dyke didn’t consistently play like a first-rounder in nine starts last season, but the 6-foot-4, 224-pounder has the talent of a future franchise passer. The third-year sophomore just needs to take the next step this year. Seattle GM John Schneider and coach Pete Carroll seem to still legitimately like Drew Lock’s potential as an NFL starter, but if the Seahawks have another disappointing season and another top-10 pick, they could be in the market for an upgrade.
Eli Ricks, CB, Alabama*
After a four-interception freshman year at LSU, Ricks missed most of 2021 with an injured shoulder and then transferred to Alabama. He’s a smooth press corner who can take away an opponent’s No. 1 receiver. The Commanders’ top two corners — William Jackson III and Kendall Fuller — are both under contract for only two more years, and the team’s pass defense has struggled, so adding a playmaker on the outside makes a lot of sense. One more note here: Ricks was arrested on Monday for speeding and possession of marijuana.
Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State*
Only the Dolphins had a worse pass block win rate than the Steelers last season (48.8%), and I don’t think Pittsburgh did enough to fix the line. When it decides to turn the offense’s keys over to new quarterback Kenny Pickett, the protection has to be there. Johnson has 13 career starts (all at right guard) and allowed only one sack last season. He will slide outside to left tackle this year.
Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia*
I thought Philadelphia might look at a cornerback in Round 1 this year, but the long-term spot opposite Darius Slay remains open — and Slay is currently primed to hit free agency in 2024. Ringo broke up eight passes and picked off two in 2021 as part of the dominant Bulldogs defense. One of those interceptions was a memorable one in the College Football Playoff national title game.
Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern*
Skoronski already has a lot of experience (21 starts), and the 6-foot-4, 294-pound lineman has the makings of a future franchise tackle, as long as he tacks on more weight. Las Vegas needs another bookend for the line opposite Kolton Miller.
Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson*
The Vikings had one of the worst run defenses in the NFL last season and didn’t draft a defensive tackle this year, and Dalvin Tomlinson is entering the final year of his contract. Bresee suffered a torn ACL in September, but he’s primed to return for a big 2022 campaign.
Noah Sewell, ILB, Oregon*
The brother of 2021 first-rounder Penei Sewell, Noah Sewell can impact multiple areas of the game. The 6-foot-3, 251-pound linebacker had 110 tackles, four sacks and six pass breakups last season. And the Patriots are still looking for a leader in the middle of their defense.
Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson*
The Dolphins tied for fifth in sacks last season and just re-signed Emmanuel Ogbah, but Murphy would be another playmaker off the edge who can get home on opposing QBs. He has 11.5 sacks over two seasons at Clemson and looks like a future impact player at the next level.
Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame*
Mayer finished his sophomore season with 71 catches (third among tight ends) and 840 receiving yards (fourth). He has tremendous 6-foot-4, 251-pound size and good hands. The Titans would love a playmaking tight end like Mayer for quarterback Ryan Tannehill — or Malik Willis, should the Titans make that move going into 2023.
Derick Hall, DE, Auburn
Hall broke out in 2021, recording nine sacks and 13 tackles for loss in his first season as a full-time starter. Will he take another step in 2022? The Colts are coming off a 33-sack season, and while they traded for Yannick Ngakoue and should see more from Kwity Paye in his second year, you can never have enough productive pass-rushers.
Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas*
Zero running backs were taken in Round 1 this year, but I expect we’ll return to seeing at least one come off the board on Day 1 next April. After going cornerback earlier, Philly could look to spark the run game here. At 6-foot and 214 pounds, Robinson is a unique talent both as a runner and receiver. He piled up 1,127 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns last season, but he also caught 26 passes for 295 yards and four more scores. Miles Sanders is entering the final year of his current deal, and the Eagles played their best football last season when they leaned on the run.
Clark Phillips III, CB, Utah*
Phillips is already a two-year starter, and he broke up 12 passes last season. Arizona’s cornerback room has holes, and that’s before factoring in that Byron Murphy Jr. is entering the final year of his contract.
Kayshon Boutte, WR, LSU*
Everyone loved the Ravens’ 2022 draft, but remember that they traded away Marquise Brown, leaving Rashod Bateman and Devin Duvernay as their top two wide receivers. Boutte is a top-15-caliber prospect who had nine touchdown catches in six games last year before a leg injury ended his season.
Trenton Simpson, ILB, Clemson*
The Bengals drafted a pair of versatile defensive backs in the first two rounds this year, and they spent on the offensive line in free agency. If the fixes prove effective, one area they could instead look at in 2023 is linebacker. Simpson had 63 tackles and six sacks last season, and he can drop in coverage.
BJ Ojulari, DE, LSU*
We already got Houston a quarterback, so how about a high-end edge rusher for new coach Lovie Smith’s defense? I love Ojulari’s burst and bend off the edge.
Henry To’oTo’o, ILB, Alabama
The Cowboys just used a fifth-rounder on linebacker Damone Clark, who will miss 2022 because of a back injury but should be ready to roll in 2023. Even so, adding another top-flight linebacker could help free up Micah Parsons in a more versatile role in which he thrives. To’oTo’o made 106 tackles last season.
Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State*
At 6-foot-2 and 192 pounds, Porter has size on the outside and some versatility, though he has only one career interception. I like the upside of defensive backs Coby Bryant and Tariq Woolen, midround picks for Seattle this year, but the Seahawks really need a potential star to improve this pass D.
Zion Nelson, OT, Miami*
I actually had Nelson in my way-too-early mock this time last year, and he’s back again after opting to return to Miami. Nelson has 33 starts and could be the answer opposite Rashawn Slater on the Chargers’ offensive line.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama*
Gibbs was a hidden gem at Georgia Tech, and now I expect him to explode onto the national stage after transferring to Alabama. His pass-catching ability out of the backfield will get a lot of attention. Pairing Gibbs with Chase Edmonds (Myles Gaskin and Raheem Mostert are under contract for only 2022) would give Miami a very strong rushing attack.
Tony Grimes, CB, UNC*
Grimes has 6-foot-1 size and good speed, and he broke up seven passes last season. A duo of Grimes and Jeff Okudah should help turn things around for Detroit’s lackluster pass defense.
Emil Ekiyor Jr., G, Alabama
We’ll see how Green Bay’s moves at wide receiver play out; if quarterback Aaron Rodgers can’t find a reliable target this year, the Packers might be looking for a first-round pass-catcher next April. Another way to help Rodgers? Drafting Ekiyor, a versatile lineman with 28 starts under his belt.
Nolan Smith, OLB, Georgia
The 6-foot-3, 235-pound defender’s sack production isn’t overwhelming (3.5 in 2021 and 8.5 over three seasons), but he forced three fumbles last year and has a lot of upside. I’m excited to see what he can do in 2022 with much of the Georgia defense heading to the NFL. Smith could help the Chiefs keep the AFC West’s talented quarterbacks in check.
Josh Downs, WR, UNC*
Downs is an explosive route runner who caught 101 passes for 1,335 yards last season and excelled after the catch. He’d be dangerous in Tampa Bay’s offense. Also keep an eye on the QB situation here; the Buccaneers could potentially turn to Kyle Trask or sign a free agent if Tom Brady retires after the 2022 season, but they could also focus on the draft class for a replacement.
Marvin Mims, WR, Oklahoma*
Another year, another loaded wide receiver class. Mims is undersized at 5-foot-11 and 177 pounds, and he hasn’t caught more than 37 passes in a season. But his 22.0 yards per reception ranked third in the nation last season, and he’d be yet another target for quarterback Josh Allen.
Here we go: Two weeks (OK, 15 days) until the start of the 2022 NFL draft.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are on the clock, of course, but they’re not the most interesting team in this draft. There are a whopping eight teams with two first-round picks — a record if it shakes out that way on April 28 — including Super Bowl contenders such as the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs. There are a lot of ways Round 1 could go, especially with the questions (and concerns) around the quarterback class.
Let’s get into my annual two-round mock draft, projecting Picks 1-64. I have four quarterbacks and 12 wide receivers here, plus four edge defenders in the top seven picks. I have interesting landing spots for the offensive tackles. And I have one trade for a team moving back into Round 1 to get a critical need — and leaping another franchise that needs that position.
I’m projecting these 64 picks based on a combination of my updated rankings, team needs and what I’m hearing from execs, scouts and coaches in the league. For the second round, in particular, so much could change between now and when teams are on the clock, so I’m using my Big Board as a guide on value.
If you want to go deeper than the first two rounds, check out Jordan Reid’s seven-round mock. And you can catch the one-hour SportsCenter Special on Wednesday breaking down these picks at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN2 and ESPN+.
Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan
There’s really no need to overthink things here. Hutchinson is the best prospect in this class — an edge rusher who could average 12 sacks a year for a decade — and he plays a premier position. He could play as a stand-up outside linebacker or hand-in-the-dirt end for the Jaguars, meeting quarterbacks in the backfield with 2019 first-rounder Josh Allen.
Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
Can I interest you in a 6-foot-3 corner with long arms and 4.41 40-yard dash speed who didn’t allow a single touchdown in coverage in college? That’s Gardner. The Lions have several needs and would likely jump at Aidan Hutchinson if he somehow fell here. But if they select Gardner and get something out of Jeff Okudah, the No. 3 overall pick in the 2020 draft who has played just 10 games in two seasons, they could have a much-improved secondary.
Travon Walker, DE, Georgia
I don’t think anyone outside the organization really knows what the Texans will do in Round 1. For this mock, I’m trying to think long-term with Houston, which just has to add some talent. Walker is a bit of risk in the top 10; NFL teams are betting that his physical tools will win out over his subpar college production (9.5 sacks in three seasons). Coaches want to try to maximize that upside. There is a lot of buzz on Walker going early.
Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE, Oregon
I’m not buying a Thibodeaux drop. He might be the most talented prospect in this class. The Jets have to add some juice to their pass rush, and this is the spot to do it. It’s also not out of the question that they take a receiver here — Drake London or Garrett Wilson? — because their top guy might be off the board by the time they pick at No. 10.
Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State
If the board shakes out this way, the Giants would have to be thrilled to get their pick of the top two offensive tackles. I have Ekwonu just slightly over Evan Neal, but it’s tough to go wrong with either — they are my Nos. 2 and 3 prospects in this class. Ekwonu answered every question about his pass-protection ability last season. If left tackle Andrew Thomas keeps improving, these two could form one of the NFL’s best bookend pairings.
Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
Doesn’t Carolina coach Matt Rhule have to take a swing on a quarterback here? The Panthers don’t have second- or third-round picks. Rhule will enter the season on the hot seat, and this is his chance to buy some time with a high-ceiling rookie signal-caller. Willis is going to make some mistakes, but he will be fun to watch. He might nail a perfect deep ball to Robby Anderson and then throw a pick in the red zone on the next play. But he’s going to keep getting better with more time, and Carolina does have some skill position talent to help him.
Jermaine Johnson II, DE, Florida State
The Giants can get their tackle at No. 5 and then focus on their defense, which allowed 4.7 yards per play last season (31st in the NFL). Johnson had 12 sacks last season and was one of the most impressive prospects at the Senior Bowl in January. He already has a few veteran pass-rush moves and can be an instant starter. He also played a lot of outside linebacker for the Seminoles, so he has some versatility in Wink Martindale’s defense. And if you’re keeping track, this makes four edge rushers in the top seven picks.
Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State
I’m going to stick with this prediction because … who is Marcus Mariota going to throw to next season? The Falcons just don’t have any starting-caliber receivers. Wilson can run every route and beat defenders after the catch. He could be the early favorite for rookie of the year if he lands here — he’d get a bunch of targets. Atlanta will likely be tracking the edge rushers closely, but there isn’t value at this point on my board.
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Look back at Garrett Wilson’s college career and why he is a star in the making at WR.
Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
This is another team that ends up with an ideal scenario. Veteran left tackle Duane Brown is still unsigned, so Neal could start from Day 1. It just makes too much sense. I’m not a huge believer that Drew Lock will be Seattle’s quarterback answer for the long term, but Neal could be a stalwart on the left side for years to come.
Drake London, WR, USC
If the Jets can pull this off — a top-tier receiver here and a high-upside edge rusher at No. 4 — shouldn’t they be considered one of the most improved teams of the offseason? I like what they’ve done, and they haven’t had to break the bank. Of course, that doesn’t mean they’re going to be AFC East contenders just yet. London is a 6-foot-4 target who will dominate in the red zone and pull down 50-50 balls to boost Zach Wilson’s completion percentage.
Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
Hamilton has been dinged a little bit because of his 40 time, which was a 4.59 at the combine and a little slower at his pro day. He’s a fantastic player, but he doesn’t have rare physical tools, which means he could fall out of the top 10. I would want him on my team. At 6-foot-4, he could play multiple positions, from center fielder to box linebacker. He would make plays for a Washington defense that disappointed in 2021.
Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU
This is a great fit for both sides. The Vikings could get a corner with an elite, All-Pro ceiling and plug a hole, while Stingley could join a team with a few other former LSU stars (Justin Jefferson, Danielle Hunter, Patrick Peterson). The worry on Stingley is that his best tape is from 2019, when he starred as a true freshman. Can he return to form in the NFL — and stay healthy? That’s a risk teams will have to consider. Still, I feel better making that bet at No. 12 than if I was picking in the top five.
Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
I’m going to stick to my board here, and since my top-11 prospects have all been picked (plus Malik Willis), I’ll move on to No. 12. Cross is a superb pass-blocker who needs some refinement in the run game — because he just didn’t get the reps to do so while playing for Mike Leach. Ultimately, if the Texans are going to give Davis Mills the 2022 season to prove he’s their guy at quarterback, Mills needs a better right tackle. That could be Cross.
Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
The Ravens could go in several directions here, including offensive tackle (will Ronnie Stanley ever be the same again?) and defensive end (Calais Campbell is back, but he’s 35). When I look at this depth chart, though, I see corner depth as an issue. McDuffie has the versatility to play outside and in the slot, and he also will wrap up and bring down ball carriers in the run game. He’s physical.
Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
After last week’s trade with the Saints, the Eagles now have one fewer first-round pick, but you have to think they’ll take a receiver with one of them, right? If they’re committed to using 2022 as an evaluation year for Jalen Hurts, the best way they can evaluate him is to give him the tools to succeed. Olave had seven touchdowns out of the slot last season, but he can move outside, too, and use his 4.39 40 speed to get open. Hurts would love throwing to him and DeVonta Smith, with Dallas Goedert working the middle of the field.
Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
Speaking of the Saints, I have a hard time believing the trade with the Eagles was to take a quarterback. Why wouldn’t they try to move up higher? (Unless there’s another move to come.) It’s possible they think they are NFC contenders this season and could be put over the edge with two more starters. With that in mind, here’s a tackle who could replace Terron Armstead on the left side. Penning is a nasty, physical blocker who is ready to play immediately.
Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia
The Chargers need a right tackle, but with Trevor Penning off the board, I don’t feel great about the value here. In fact, my next tackle in this mock doesn’t go off the board until No. 42. Let’s move instead to another need for L.A. and fill it with Davis, who at 6-foot-6 and 341 pounds is used to being a hole-filler. He has unique physical tools for his size, and he makes everyone around him better because of the space he eats. This is how Brandon Staley’s defense can level up in 2022.
Nakobe Dean, ILB, Georgia
I see a massive void in the middle of the Eagles’ front seven, and we’re getting to the point in this draft in which an off-ball linebacker will be taken. I have Devin Lloyd just ahead of Dean in my rankings, but there are teams that will fall in love with Dean’s intangibles. He’s a tremendous teammate who was the leader of the national champs’ historic defense. He’s a little undersized, but he can play sideline to sideline.
Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
Even if Michael Thomas comes back healthy, the Saints should address wide receiver with one of their two first-round picks. Williams would have been in the discussion to be the No. 1 wideout in this class, but he tore his ACL in the national title game in January and could miss a little time in 2022. He could be a superstar once he’s healthy; he has explosive speed and was uncoverable for the Crimson Tide last season. ACL injuries aren’t even close to career-ending anymore, so I don’t see this as a risky pick. Williams is worth it.
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Check out the best moments from Jameson Williams at Alabama as he gets ready for the NFL draft.
Kenny Pickett, QB, Pitt
I’d feel much more comfortable taking Pickett here than I would in the top 10. Best-case scenario is that he’s Derek Carr, and his floor is as an Andy Dalton-type, which isn’t a bad quarterback by any means. Pittsburgh can win with that. Still, those two were taken in Round 2 and didn’t have Round 1 expectations surrounding them. If Pickett falls into the Steelers’ laps here, he’d be tough to pass up. And he has a little more upside than Mitch Trubisky.
Devin Lloyd, ILB, Utah
I thought about a wide receiver and cornerback here, but Lloyd just feels like a Bill Belichick-type player. He’s always around the ball, is a great blitzer from the middle of the defense and makes plays. The Patriots allowed 4.5 yards per carry last season, which ranked 25th in the league. This fills a void with an impact player.
Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota State
There could be a run on wide receivers in the 20s, starting with the Patriots and Packers. We know Green Bay needs one after the Davante Adams trade, but I don’t think general manager Brian Gutekunst is going to force it. Watson is a riser, as teams see a 6-foot-4 receiver with 4.36 40 speed and elite measurables and think he can be a big-play threat who can grow into a better route runner. Watson averaged 20.4 yards per catch in his college career. Watson is ready to contribute for Aaron Rodgers as a rookie.
Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
Burks can be used in different roles — he even ran 19 routes out of the backfield last season — and will be dynamic after the catch. He will take screens and short passes for scores. For Arizona, this is about helping replacing Christian Kirk and getting some help for an offense that struggled when DeAndre Hopkins went down last season.
Arnold Ebiketie, DE, Penn State
McShay is getting tired of me talking up Ebiketie, but I’m a fan. I wanted to find a fit for him in Round 1. The Temple transfer really improved last season, putting up 9.5 sacks. He has a powerful lower body and knows how to use his hands. The Cowboys have to find a way to replace Randy Gregory, and Ebiketie could help. They could also target a guard or wide receiver here.
Daxton Hill, DB, Michigan
I just moved Hill way up on my Big Board. NFL teams love his versatility — he played more than 550 snaps at nickelback in 2021 — and think he could play both corner and safety. He might be a slot corner if he ends up in Buffalo, which lost Levi Wallace in free agency and has Tre’Davious White returning from an ACL tear. Andrew Booth Jr. (Clemson) and Kyler Gordon (Washington) are two other corners to keep an eye on. The Bills have one of the best rosters in the league.
Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State
The Titans need to get faster at receiver next to A.J. Brown. That’s not Robert Woods’ game. Dotson, who ran a 4.43 40 at the combine, caught 91 passes last season, 33 coming from the slot. He would give Ryan Tannehill more easy throws because he can scoot after the catch. Tennessee could also target the best offensive lineman available with this pick. On my board, that would be center Tyler Linderbaum (Iowa), and he could play some guard.
Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia
The Bucs are another team that could take a guard in Round 1, but I see a fit with Wyatt, who could take Ndamukong Suh’s spot next to Vita Vea. Wyatt played mostly as a 3-technique tackle for the Bulldogs, but he could play end in a 3-4 defense, too. He wasn’t a super productive pass-rusher (2.5 sacks last season), but he has the physical tools that coordinators will want to mold. Cornerback could be a possibility for Tampa Bay as well.
Zion Johnson, G/C, Boston College
Johnson’s positional flex is impressive to teams, as he dominated as a guard last season — he didn’t allow a single pressure — and took snaps at center at the Senior Bowl. He’d most likely play guard in Green Bay, which lost Lucas Patrick in free agency. Packers fans (and Aaron Rodgers) should be happy with this first-round haul, and the franchise has two second-round picks as well.
Andrew Booth Jr., CB, Clemson
The loss in free agency of cornerback Charvarius Ward shouldn’t go unnoticed. He had developed into a really solid player. The Kansas City defense improved as the 2021 season went along, but it has to get deeper in the secondary. Booth is a smooth 6-foot corner with good ball skills who played both outside and in the slot in college.
George Karlaftis, DE, Purdue
No wide receiver? Let me explain. First, the Chiefs also have two second- and two third-round picks. They could take one (or two) wide receivers with those selections. This is a deep class, and they could find better value there. And second, defensive end is a need as well. If Karlaftis is on the board, he’d be an ideal end next to Chris Jones, who does his best work from the interior. Karlaftis didn’t always get home to quarterbacks last season (only 4.5 sacks), but he created pressures in their face.
Projected trade: Jets move up for … a center?
How about a third first-round selection from the Jets? In this scenario, with a glaring hole at center and the top guy still on the board, they deal No. 35 and a Day 3 pick to get back into Round 1. And crucially, they keep their pick at No. 38, which allows them to get more help.
The Bengals would move down just four spots and pick up an extra fourth-rounder. They signed center Ted Karras in free agency among other moves to upgrade their O-line, so their need isn’t as big.
Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa
Could Linderbaum be the Jets’ new Nick Mangold? They took Mangold at pick No. 29 in 2006 and have been trying to fill that void at center since he left the team after the 2016 season. Some NFL teams are putt off by Linderbaum’s short arms, but just watch the tape. He has the physical traits to be an All-Pro and is exceptional as both a run and pass blocker. He’s exactly what the Jets need, and this is tremendous value.
Lewis Cine, S, Georgia
The more I talk to people in the league, the more I think the Lions will stand pat on a quarterback with their three picks in the top 34. Jared Goff can be the starter in 2022, and if he struggles, chances are Detroit will be right back in the mix for the No. 1 overall pick, which it can use on a signal-caller. Cine is the fifth Georgia defender in the top 32 picks here (with more to come). He’s a good cover safety who is rising after he ran a 4.37 40 at the combine.
ROUND 2
Kenyon Green, G, Texas A&M
Green is my top-ranked guard, and a I could see a team falling in love with him in the 20s. He might not be on the board here. Green played everything except center for the Aggies, but he should stick at guard in the NFL. The Jaguars, who have spent a lot of money in free agency — including on guard Brandon Scherff — should try to trade this pick and add extra assets. Taking Green helps them immediately, though.
David Ojabo, OLB, Michigan
Ojabo is my top-ranked outside linebacker, even after he tore his Achilles last month and could miss most of the season. If the Lions are thinking long-term, they could get a steal with a high-ceiling edge rusher.
Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida
Cornerback is the position the Bengals should target if they keep the No. 31 pick, and they should be thrilled with Elam here. He locked down receivers for the Gators and then ran a 4.39 40 at the combine. He could be a Day 1 starter for Cincinnati.
Jalen Pitre, S, Baylor
This makes five safeties off the board in the top 36 picks. Pitre was stellar against the run last season; he had 20 run stops, according to ESPN Stats & Info, which were the most by any FBS defensive back. He impressed teams at the Senior Bowl. The Giants could target a wide receiver here, depending on how the board falls. The 6-foot-3 George Pickens (Georgia) could make sense.
Jaquan Brisker, S, Penn State
Brisker is a physical defensive back with versatility. He played down in the box at times for the Nittany Lions, blowing up running lanes. The Texans let Justin Reid leave in free agency, and they have multiple holes in the secondary.
Breece Hall, RB, Iowa State
Day 2 is when teams should take running backs, and the Jets would be getting the clear top back in this class. Hall can do it all, from forcing missed tackles to catching passes. If the Jets are serious about helping Zach Wilson, they should take Hall. This scenario gives them Hall, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Drake London and Tyler Linderbaum with their first four picks, which would have them well on the way to an “A” grade.
Kyler Gordon, CB, Washington
The Bears could go several ways here, including offensive tackle, wide receiver and guard. With Gordon still available, though, I’d pounce. He has lockdown traits and didn’t allow a single touchdown in coverage last season. There has been a great history of teams finding starting corners in the second round, and Gordon has a great chance to play early.
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0:52
Check out some of CB Kyler Gordon’s highlights from his time with the Washington Huskies.
Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati
Here’s a landing spot for the third quarterback in this class. Are the Seahawks really going to start Drew Lock all year? I don’t buy it. Ridder is an experienced, savvy signal-caller (43 college wins) who can be a little erratic at times. If he can get his accuracy issues under control, he could be a starter, especially with the type of targets Seattle has. This might be the best-case scenario for the franchise, because Ridder won’t have the expectations of a first-round pick while playing in the shadow of Russell Wilson.
Quay Walker, LB, Georgia
The sixth Georgia defender off the board so far, Walker is a big and tough linebacker who could try to fill the void left by Bobby Wagner’s departure. I was a big fan of the Seahawks taking Jordyn Brooks in Round 1 in 2020, and this would give them two off-ball linebackers to crush ball carriers and get their hands in passing lanes.
Bernhard Raimann, OT, Central Michigan
There’s a drop off in the tackle class after the top four guys, but there could be a run of them in Round 2. Raimann, who started his college career as a tight end and moved to tackle in 2020, has the physical tools that will entice teams. He needs to be coached hard. This is the Colts’ only pick in the first two rounds, so they have to make it count.
Boye Mafe, OLB, Minnesota
The Falcons had just 18 sacks last season, which ranked last in the league. Outside of Grady Jarrett, who in their front seven will scare teams? Mafe had seven sacks last season and was really good during Senior Bowl practices. At 6-foot-3 and 261 pounds, he fits in Atlanta’s 3-4 scheme.
Travis Jones, DT, Connecticut
Like the Colts, the Browns have just one pick in the first two rounds, and Jones would fill a need. The 6-foot-4 and 325-pound nose tackle can eat up space and allow the rest of the defense to find the football. He might end up as only a two-down defender; I’d feel better about taking him in Round 2 than in the top 32.
Channing Tindall, LB, Georgia
OK, this is the last of the Georgia defenders in my mock draft, and this guy never even made a start for the national champs (in 50 career games). He still played a lot, of course, and had 19 pressures last season. His 4.47 40 at 230 pounds at the combine was extremely impressive. For the Ravens, he could compete for a starting spot at inside linebacker and be a core contributor on special teams.
Perrion Winfrey, DT, Oklahoma
Winfrey is more of a classic 3-technique penetrating tackle, and he was one of the biggest risers after his performance at the Senior Bowl. Linemen couldn’t block him. He didn’t always get the chance to create havoc at Oklahoma. Winfrey could be great next to nose tackle Dalvin Tomlinson for Minnesota.
George Pickens, WR, Georgia
I love this for Washington, which could get a 6-foot-3 outside receiver with No. 1 traits. He tore his ACL last spring and returned late in the 2021 season, making an impact down the stretch. It’s no guarantee he lasts until Round 2 — teams could think long-term and be patient with him — but the Commanders should try to pair him with Terry McLaurin.
Tyler Smith, OT/G, Tulsa
I mentioned Chicago’s offensive line need at No. 39, and Smith could play a role at guard or tackle. He played left tackle for the Golden Hurricane, but some teams view him as a better guard at the next level. He has to be more consistent and work on his technique — he was called for a whopping 12 penalties last season — but the tools are there.
Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss
Corral is a tough evaluation. He wants to play like Josh Allen but doesn’t have the size — he’s only 6-foot-2. He was the only player in the country last season with 3,300-plus passing yards and 500-plus rushing yards. Will he be able to consistently make every throw in the NFL? That’s why I think he’s a safer bet on Day 2. He would make a lot of sense in New Orleans, where he could get an evaluation year behind Jameis Winston.
Skyy Moore, WR, Western Michigan
Happy now, Chiefs fans? Here’s a speedy 5-foot-10 wide receiver who will look just a little similar to Tyreek Hill. I’ve called Moore the most underrated player in this class. I love what he does after the catch — he forced 30 missed tackles last season, which ranked second in FBS among receivers — and he doesn’t drop passes. He has huge hands. He’s not going to be a straight replacement for Hill, but he’ll contribute as a rookie.
Drake Jackson, DE/OLB, USC
There was a time when I thought Jackson might be a top-10 pick, but he never quite put everything together for the Trojans. Still, NFL teams will see his size (6-foot-3, 254 pounds) and physical traits and think they can coach him to hit his ceiling. For the Eagles, Jackson might be a situational pass-rusher at first while he develops his game. Edge rush is a clear need for Philly.
John Metchie III, WR, Alabama
Metchie tore his ACL in December, but he was having a fantastic season, with 96 catches for 1,142 yards and eight scores. He can play in the slot and make a difference in the middle of the field for the Steelers, which let JuJu Smith-Schuster walk in free agency. Metchie should be able to recover to play in Week 1 — and potentially help Kenny Pickett.
Alec Pierce, WR, Cincinnati
My comp for Pierce will be familiar to Packers fans — it’s Jordy Nelson. And Green Bay got Nelson in the second round, too. The 6-foot-3 Pierce ran a 4.41 40 at the combine and also had a 40.5-inch vertical. He has rare physical tools, which have him climbing draft boards. He could thrive on go routes from Aaron Rodgers.
Logan Hall, DL, Houston
This is another Patriots-type pick, because Hall is a bit of a tweener. At 6-foot-6 and 283 pounds, he might be best suited for a defensive end spot in a 3-4 scheme, or he could kick inside and play as a 3-technique tackle. Bill Belichick & Co. will be able to use him in different ways. Hall has put on more than 50 pounds since high school, so he’s still growing into his frame.
Roger McCreary, CB, Auburn
McCreary is fundamentally sound and advanced in his technique, but he’s undersized (5-foot-11) with short arms. He’s also not as explosive as a few other corners in this class. Still, he has some great tape, and I don’t think he’ll drop past Round 3, because he could be a great nickel corner. Arizona has to add quality depth in the secondary.
Abraham Lucas, OT, Washington State
The Cowboys released La’el Collins and think Terence Steele, a former undrafted free agent, can be the starter at right tackle. Let’s add some competition, though. Lucas impressed at the combine, and he stonewalled edge rushers on the right side for the Cougars. If he doesn’t start at tackle, he could move inside to guard. The O-line is a clear area to upgrade for Dallas.
Kenneth Walker III, RB, Michigan State
Bills fans would be thrilled with these two picks, right? Buffalo would address its hole in the secondary with Daxton Hill in Round 1, then get a starting-caliber late in Round 2. Walker is a bulldozer with some juice through the hole. He wasn’t used much as a receiver in college (just 19 career catches), so that’s a question mark. But for a team that needs to take pressure off its quarterback and has excellent receivers, Walker could thrive.
Troy Andersen, LB, Montana State
Andersen played as an off-ball linebacker — and quarterback, running back — in college, racking up 150 tackles last season. He impressed at the combine, running a 4.42 40 at 6-foot-3 and 243 pounds. That’s an elite number. Atlanta just has to focus on replenishing its roster, so this is great value.
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Check out the best highlights from Troy Andersen’s collegiate career at Montana State.
Myjai Sanders, DE/OLB, Cincinnati
Sanders weighed just 228 pounds at the combine and reportedly had lost weight because of a stomach bug. He should settle in the 240-range in the NFL, and he might be best suited as an outside linebacker. But he has some explosive traits off the edge, and he could be an interesting high-upside pick on Day 2. The Packers have to add young edge talent in this draft.
Cole Strange, G, Chattanooga
Super Bowl contenders are allowed to use the draft to fill needs, because they don’t have many holes. And really, the Bucs and Bills are the two teams with the fewest number of obvious holes. With Ali Marpet retiring and Alex Cappa signing with the Bengals, Tampa will have two new starters at guard. Strange made 44 starts in college and showed at the Senior Bowl that he could play with the best of the best.
Cam Taylor-Britt, DB, Nebraska
This is the 49ers’ debut pick in this draft, but this late in Round 2, they’re not going to be guaranteed to get a starter. They can take a need position, sure, but they shouldn’t reach to make it happen. Taylor-Britt makes sense because he has some raw tools with which to work and has the skill set to play multiple spots. He had 11 pass breakups last season. San Francisco signed Charvarius Ward but should add corner depth.
Jalen Tolbert, WR, South Alabama
How about one more wideout for the Chiefs? Tolbert had 2,559 receiving yards over the past two seasons. At 6-foot-1 and 194 pounds, he has the ability to run every route, and coach Andy Reid can scheme him open around the formation. This lets Kansas City try to replace Tyreek Hill with two wideouts (I also gave it Skyy Moore earlier in the round), both of whom will need some time to adjust to the NFL.
Greg Dulcich, TE, UCLA
Let’s end this projection with the top tight ends in the class. Dulcich averaged 17.3 yards per catch last season, lining up mostly next to offensive tackles. He ran some routes out of the slot, but if the Bengals want to replace C.J. Uzomah with a similar tight end, that’s Dulcich.
Trey McBride, TE, Colorado State
McBride is more advanced as a pass-catcher than Dulcich, which is what the Broncos need with new quarterback Russell Wilson. With Noah Fant off to Seattle, there are targets available. McBride had 90 catches for 1,121 yards last season; he could stretch the seams in Denver.
Here we go: Two weeks (OK, 15 days) until the start of the 2022 NFL draft. The Jacksonville Jaguars are on the clock, of course, but they’re not the most interesting team in this draft. There are a whopping eight teams with two first-round picks — a record if it shakes out that way on April 28 — including Super Bowl contenders such as the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs. There are a lot of ways Round 1 could go, especially with the questions (and concerns) around the quarterback class.
Let’s get into my annual two-round mock draft, projecting pick Nos. 1-64. I have four quarterbacks and 12 wide receivers here, plus four edge defenders in the top seven picks. I have interesting landing spots for the offensive tackles. And I have one trade for a team moving back into Round 1 to get a critical need — and leaping another franchise that needs that position.
I’m projecting these 64 picks based on a combination of my updated rankings, team needs and what I’m hearing from execs, scouts and coaches in the league. For the second round, in particular, so much could change between now and when teams are on the clock, so I’m using my Big Board as a guide on value.
If you want to go deeper than the first two rounds, check out Jordan Reid’s seven-round mock. And you can catch the one-hour SportsCenter Special on Wednesday breaking down these picks at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN2 and ESPN+.
Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan
There’s really no need to overthink things here. Hutchinson is the best prospect in this class — an edge rusher who could average 12 sacks a year for a decade — and he plays a premier position. He could play as a stand-up outside linebacker or hand-in-the-dirt end for the Jaguars, meeting quarterbacks in the backfield with 2019 first-rounder Josh Allen.
Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
Can I interest you in a 6-foot-3 corner with long arms and 4.41 40-yard dash speed who didn’t allow a single touchdown in coverage in college? That’s Gardner. The Lions have several needs and would likely jump at Aidan Hutchinson if he somehow fell here. If they can get something out of Jeff Okudah, the No. 3 overall pick in the 2020 draft who has played just 10 games in two seasons, they could have a much-improved secondary.
Travon Walker, DE, Georgia
I don’t think anyone outside the organization really knows what the Texans will do in Round 1. For this mock, I’m trying to think long-term with Houston, which just has to add some talent. Walker is a bit of risk in the top 10; NFL teams are betting that his physical tools will win out over his subpar college production (9.5 sacks in three seasons). Coaches want to try to maximize that upside. There is a lot of buzz on Walker going early.
Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE, Oregon
I’m not buying a Thibodeaux drop. He might be the most talented prospect in this class. The Jets have to add some juice to their pass rush, and this is the spot to do it. It’s also not out of the question that they take a receiver here — Drake London or Garrett Wilson? — because their top guy might be off the board by the time they pick at No. 10.
Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State
If the board shakes out this way, the Giants would have to be thrilled to get their pick of the top two offensive tackles. I have Ekwonu just slightly over Evan Neal, but it’s tough to go wrong with either — they are my Nos. 2 and 3 prospects in this class. Ekwonu answered every question about his pass-protection ability last season. If left tackle Andrew Thomas keeps improving, these two could form one of the NFL’s best bookend pairings.
Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
Doesn’t Carolina coach Matt Rhule have to take a swing on a quarterback here? The Panthers don’t have second- or third-round picks. Rhule will enter the season on the hot seat, and this is his chance to buy some time with a high-ceiling rookie signal-caller. Willis is going to make some mistakes, but he will be fun to watch. He might nail a perfect deep ball to Robby Anderson and then throw a pick in the red zone on the next play. But he’s going to keep getting better with more time, and Carolina does have some skill position talent to help him.
Jermaine Johnson II, DE, Florida State
The Giants can get their tackle at No. 5 and then focus on their defense, which allowed 4.7 yards per play last season (31st in the NFL). Johnson had 12 sacks last season and was one of the most impressive prospects at the Senior Bowl in January. He already has a few veteran pass-rush moves and can be an instant starter. He also played a lot of outside linebacker for the Seminoles, so he has some versatility in Wink Martindale’s defense. And if you’re keeping track, this makes four edge rushers in the top seven picks.
Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State
I’m going to stick with this prediction because … who is Marcus Mariota going to throw to next season? The Falcons just don’t have any starting-caliber receivers. Wilson can run every route and beat defenders after the catch. He could be the early favorite for rookie of the year if he lands here — he’d get a bunch of targets. Atlanta will likely be tracking the edge rushers closely, but there isn’t value at this point on my board.
play
1:45
Look back at Garrett Wilson’s college career and why he is a star in the making at WR.
Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
This is another team that ends up with an ideal scenario. Veteran left tackle Duane Brown is still unsigned, so Neal could start from Day 1. It just makes too much sense. I’m not a huge believer that Drew Lock will be Seattle’s quarterback answer for the long term, but Neal could be a stalwart on the left side for years to come.
Drake London, WR, USC
If the Jets can pull this off — a top-tier receiver here and a high-upside edge rusher at No. 4 — shouldn’t they be considered one of the most improved teams of the offseason? I like what they’ve done, and they haven’t had to break the bank. Of course, that doesn’t mean they’re going to be AFC East contenders just yet. London is a 6-foot-4 target who will dominate in the red zone and pull down 50-50 balls to boost Zach Wilson’s completion percentage.
Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
Hamilton has been dinged a little bit because of his 40 time, which was a 4.59 at the combine and a little slower at his pro day. He’s a fantastic player, but he doesn’t have rare physical tools, which means he could fall out of the top 10. I would want him on my team. At 6-foot-4, he could play multiple positions, from center fielder to box linebacker. He would make plays for a Washington defense that disappointed in 2021.
Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU
This is a great fit for both sides. The Vikings could get a corner with an elite, All-Pro ceiling and plug a hole, while Stingley could join a team with a few other former LSU stars (Justin Jefferson, Danielle Hunter, Patrick Peterson). The worry on Stingley is that his best tape is from 2019, when he starred as a true freshman. Can he return to form in the NFL — and stay healthy? That’s a risk teams will have to consider. Still, I feel better making that bet at No. 12 than if I was picking in the top five.
Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
I’m going to stick to my board here, and since my top-11 prospects have all been picked (plus Malik Willis), I’ll move on to No. 12. Cross is a superb pass-blocker who needs some refinement in the run game — because he just didn’t get the reps to do so while playing for Mike Leach. Ultimately, if the Texans are going to give Davis Mills the 2022 season to prove he’s their guy at quarterback, Mills needs a better right tackle. That could be Cross.
Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
The Ravens could go in several directions here, including offensive tackle (will Ronnie Stanley ever be the same again?) and defensive end (Calais Campbell is back, but he’s 35). When I look at this depth chart, though, I see corner depth as an issue. McDuffie has the versatility to play outside and in the slot, and he also will wrap up and bring down ball carriers in the run game. He’s physical.
Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
After last week’s trade with the Saints, the Eagles now have one fewer first-round pick, but you have to think they’ll take a receiver with one of them, right? If they’re committed to using 2022 as an evaluation year for Jalen Hurts, the best way they can evaluate him is to give him the tools to succeed. Olave had seven touchdowns out of the slot last season, but he can move outside, too, and use his 4.39 40 speed to get open. Hurts would love throwing to him and DeVonta Smith, with Dallas Goedert working the middle of the field.
Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
Speaking of the Saints, I have a hard time believing the trade with the Eagles was to take a quarterback. Why wouldn’t they try to move up higher? (Unless there’s another move to come.) It’s possible they think they are NFC contenders this season and could be put over the edge with two more starters. With that in mind, here’s a tackle who could replace Terron Armstead on the left side. Penning is a nasty, physical blocker who is ready to play immediately.
Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia
The Chargers need a right tackle, but with Trevor Penning off the board, I don’t feel great about the value here. In fact, my next tackle in this mock doesn’t go off the board until No. 42. Let’s move instead to another need for L.A. and fill it with Davis, who at 6-foot-6 and 341 pounds is used to being a hole-filler. He has unique physical tools for his size, and he makes everyone around him better because of the space he eats. This is how Brandon Staley’s defense can level up in 2022.
Nakobe Dean, ILB, Georgia
I see a massive void in the middle of the Eagles’ front seven, and we’re getting to the point in this draft in which an off-ball linebacker will be taken. I have Devin Lloyd just ahead of Dean in my rankings, but there are teams that will fall in love with Dean’s intangibles. He’s a tremendous teammate who was the leader of the national champs’ historic defense. He’s a little undersized, but he can play sideline to sideline.
Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
Even if Michael Thomas comes back healthy, the Saints should address wide receiver with one of their two first-round picks. Williams would have been in the discussion to be the No. 1 wideout in this class, but he tore his ACL in the national title game in January and could miss a little time in 2022. He could be a superstar once he’s healthy; he has explosive speed and was uncoverable for the Crimson Tide last season. ACL injuries aren’t even close to career-ending anymore, so I don’t see this as a risky pick. Williams is worth it.
play
1:32
Check out the best moments from Jameson Williams at Alabama as he gets ready for the NFL draft.
Kenny Pickett, QB, Pitt
I’d feel much more comfortable taking Pickett here than I would in the top 10. Best-case scenario is that he’s Derek Carr, and his floor is as an Andy Dalton-type, which isn’t a bad quarterback by any means. Pittsburgh can win with that. Still, those two were taken in Round 2 and didn’t have Round 1 expectations surrounding them. If Pickett falls into the Steelers’ laps here, he’d be tough to pass up. And he has a little more upside than Mitch Trubisky.
Devin Lloyd, ILB, Utah
I thought about a wide receiver and cornerback here, but Lloyd just feels like a Bill Belichick-type player. He’s always around the ball, is a great blitzer from the middle of the defense and makes plays. The Patriots allowed 4.5 yards per carry last season, which ranked 25th in the league. This fills a void with an impact player.
Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota State
There could be a run on wide receivers in the 20s, starting with the Patriots and Packers. We know Green Bay needs one after the Davante Adams trade, but I don’t think general manager Brian Gutekunst is going to force it. Watson is a riser, as teams see a 6-foot-4 receiver with 4.36 40 speed and elite measurables and think he can be a big-play threat who can grow into a better route runner. Watson averaged 20.4 yards per catch in his college career. Watson is ready to contribute for Aaron Rodgers as a rookie.
Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
Burks can be used in different roles — he even ran 19 routes out of the backfield last season — and will be dynamic after the catch. He will take screens and short passes for scores. For Arizona, this is about helping replacing Christian Kirk and getting some help for an offense that struggled when DeAndre Hopkins went down last season.
Arnold Ebiketie, DE, Penn State
McShay is getting tired of me talking up Ebiketie, but I’m a fan. I wanted to find a fit for him in Round 1. The Temple transfer really improved last season, putting up 9.5 sacks. He has a powerful lower body and knows how to use his hands. The Cowboys have to find a way to replace Randy Gregory, and Ebiketie could help. They could also target a guard or wide receiver here.
Daxton Hill, DB, Michigan
I just moved Hill way up on my Big Board. NFL teams love his versatility — he played more than 550 snaps at nickelback in 2021 — and think he could play both corner and safety. He might be a slot corner if he ends up in Buffalo, which lost Levi Wallace in free agency and has Tre’Davious White returning from an ACL tear. Andrew Booth Jr. (Clemson) and Kyler Gordon (Washington) are two other corners to keep an eye on. The Bills have one of the best rosters in the league.
Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State
The Titans need to get faster at receiver next to A.J. Brown. That’s not Robert Woods’ game. Dotson, who ran a 4.43 40 at the combine, caught 91 passes last season, 33 coming from the slot. He would give Ryan Tannehill more easy throws because he can scoot after the catch. Tennessee could also target the best offensive lineman available with this pick. On my board, that would be center Tyler Linderbaum (Iowa), and he could play some guard.
Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia
The Bucs are another team that could take a guard in Round 1, but I see a fit with Wyatt, who could take Ndamukong Suh’s spot next to Vita Vea. Wyatt played mostly as a 3-technique tackle for the Bulldogs, but he could play end in a 3-4 defense, too. He wasn’t a super productive pass-rusher (2.5 sacks last season), but he has the physical tools that coordinators will want to mold. Cornerback could be a possibility for Tampa Bay as well.
Zion Johnson, G/C, Boston College
Johnson’s positional flex is impressive to teams, as he dominated as a guard last season — he didn’t allow a single pressure — and took snaps at center at the Senior Bowl. He’d most likely play guard in Green Bay, which lost Lucas Patrick in free agency. Packers fans (and Aaron Rodgers) should be happy with this first-round haul, and the franchise has two second-round picks as well.
Andrew Booth Jr., CB, Clemson
The loss in free agency of cornerback Charvarius Ward shouldn’t go unnoticed. He had developed into a really solid player. The Kansas City defense improved as the 2021 season went along, but it has to get deeper in the secondary. Booth is a smooth 6-foot corner with good ball skills who played both outside and in the slot in college.
George Karlaftis, DE, Purdue
No wide receiver? Let me explain. First, the Chiefs also have two second- and two third-round picks. They could take one (or two) wide receivers with those selections. This is a deep class, and they could find better value there. And second, defensive end is a need as well. If Karlaftis is on the board, he’d be an ideal end next to Chris Jones, who does his best work from the interior. Karlaftis didn’t always get home to quarterbacks last season (only 4.5 sacks), but he created pressures in their face.
Projected trade: Jets move up for … a center?
How about a third first-round selection from the Jets? In this scenario, with a glaring hole at center and the top guy still on the board, they deal No. 35 and a Day 3 pick to get back into Round 1. And crucially, they keep their pick at No. 38, which allows them to get more help.
The Bengals would move down just four spots and pick up an extra fourth-rounder. They signed center Ted Karras in free agency among other moves to upgrade their O-line, so their need isn’t as big.
Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa
Could Linderbaum be the Jets’ new Nick Mangold? They took Mangold at pick No. 29 in 2006 and have been trying to fill that void at center since he left the team after the 2016 season. Some NFL teams are putt off by Linderbaum’s short arms, but just watch the tape. He has the physical traits to be an All-Pro and is exceptional as both a run and pass blocker. He’s exactly what the Jets need, and this is tremendous value.
Lewis Cine, S, Georgia
The more I talk to people in the league, the more I think the Lions will stand pat on a quarterback with their three picks in the top 34. Jared Goff can be the starter in 2022, and if he struggles, chances are Detroit will be right back in the mix for the No. 1 overall pick, which it can use on a signal-caller. Cine is the fifth Georgia defender in the top 32 picks here (with more to come). He’s a good cover safety who is rising after he ran a 4.37 40 at the combine.
ROUND 2
Kenyon Green, G, Texas A&M
Green is my top-ranked guard, and a I could see a team falling in love with him in the 20s. He might not be on the board here. Green played everything except center for the Aggies, but he should stick at guard in the NFL. The Jaguars, who have spent a lot of money in free agency — including on guard Brandon Scherff — should try to trade this pick and add extra assets. Taking Green helps them immediately, though.
David Ojabo, OLB, Michigan
Ojabo is my top-ranked outside linebacker, even after he tore his Achilles last month and could miss most of the season. If the Lions are thinking long-term, they could get a steal with a high-ceiling edge rusher.
Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida
Cornerback is the position the Bengals should target if they keep the No. 31 pick, and they should be thrilled with Elam here. He locked down receivers for the Gators and then ran a 4.39 40 at the combine. He could be a Day 1 starter for Cincinnati.
Jalen Pitre, S, Baylor
This makes five safeties off the board in the top 36 picks. Pitre was stellar against the run last season; he had 20 run stops, according to ESPN Stats & Info, which were the most by any FBS defensive back. He impressed teams at the Senior Bowl. The Giants could target a wide receiver here, depending on how the board falls. The 6-foot-3 George Pickens (Georgia) could make sense.
Jaquan Brisker, S, Penn State
Brisker is a physical defensive back with versatility. He played down in the box at times for the Nittany Lions, blowing up running lanes. The Texans let Justin Reid leave in free agency, and they have multiple holes in the secondary.
Breece Hall, RB, Iowa State
Day 2 is when teams should take running backs, and the Jets would be getting the clear top back in this class. Hall can do it all, from forcing missed tackles to catching passes. If the Jets are serious about helping Zach Wilson, they should take Hall. This scenario gives them Hall, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Drake London and Tyler Linderbaum with their first four picks, which would have them well on the way to an “A” grade.
Kyler Gordon, CB, Washington
The Bears could go several ways here, including offensive tackle, wide receiver and guard. With Gordon still available, though, I’d pounce. He has lockdown traits and didn’t allow a single touchdown in coverage last season. There has been a great history of teams finding starting corners in the second round, and Gordon has a great chance to play early.
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0:52
Check out some of CB Kyler Gordon’s highlights from his time with the Washington Huskies.
Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati
Here’s a landing spot for the third quarterback in this class. Are the Seahawks really going to start Drew Lock all year? I don’t buy it. Ridder is an experienced, savvy signal-caller (43 college wins) who can be a little erratic at times. If he can get his accuracy issues under control, he could be a starter, especially with the type of targets Seattle has. This might be the best-case scenario for the franchise, because Ridder won’t have the expectations of a first-round pick while playing in the shadow of Russell Wilson.
Quay Walker, LB, Georgia
The sixth Georgia defender off the board so far, Walker is a big and tough linebacker who could try to fill the void left by Bobby Wagner’s departure. I was a big fan of the Seahawks taking Jordyn Brooks in Round 1 in 2020, and this would give them two off-ball linebackers to crush ball carriers and get their hands in passing lanes.
Bernhard Raimann, OT, Central Michigan
There’s a drop off in the tackle class after the top four guys, but there could be a run of them in Round 2. Raimann, who started his college career as a tight end and moved to tackle in 2020, has the physical tools that will entice teams. He needs to be coached hard. This is the Colts’ only pick in the first two rounds, so they have to make it count.
Boye Mafe, OLB, Minnesota
The Falcons had just 18 sacks last season, which ranked last in the league. Outside of Grady Jarrett, who in their front seven will scare teams? Mafe had seven sacks last season and was really good during Senior Bowl practices. At 6-foot-3 and 261 pounds, he fits in Atlanta’s 3-4 scheme.
Travis Jones, DT, Connecticut
Like the Colts, the Browns have just one pick in the first two rounds, and Jones would fill a need. The 6-foot-4 and 325-pound nose tackle can eat up space and allow the rest of the defense to find the football. He might end up as only a two-down defender; I’d feel better about taking him in Round 2 than in the top 32.
Channing Tindall, LB, Georgia
OK, this is the last of the Georgia defenders in my mock draft, and this guy never even made a start for the national champs (in 50 career games). He still played a lot, of course, and had 19 pressures last season. His 4.47 40 at 230 pounds at the combine was extremely impressive. For the Ravens, he could compete for a starting spot at inside linebacker and be a core contributor on special teams.
Perrion Winfrey, DT, Oklahoma
Winfrey is more of a classic 3-technique penetrating tackle, and he was one of the biggest risers after his performance at the Senior Bowl. Linemen couldn’t block him. He didn’t always get the chance to create havoc at Oklahoma. Winfrey could be great next to nose tackle Dalvin Tomlinson for Minnesota.
George Pickens, WR, Georgia
I love this for Washington, which could get a 6-foot-3 outside receiver with No. 1 traits. He tore his ACL last spring and returned late in the 2021 season, making an impact down the stretch. It’s no guarantee he lasts until Round 2 — teams could think long-term and be patient with him — but the Commanders should try to pair him with Terry McLaurin.
Tyler Smith, OT/G, Tulsa
I mentioned Chicago’s offensive line need at No. 39, and Smith could play a role at guard or tackle. He played left tackle for the Golden Hurricane, but some teams view him as a better guard at the next level. He has to be more consistent and work on his technique — he was called for a whopping 12 penalties last season — but the tools are there.
Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss
Corral is a tough evaluation. He wants to play like Josh Allen but doesn’t have the size — he’s only 6-foot-2. He was the only player in the country last season with 3,300-plus passing yards and 500-plus rushing yards. Will he be able to consistently make every throw in the NFL? That’s why I think he’s a safer bet on Day 2. He would make a lot of sense in New Orleans, where he could get an evaluation year behind Jameis Winston.
Skyy Moore, WR, Western Michigan
Happy now, Chiefs fans? Here’s a speedy 5-foot-10 wide receiver who will look just a little similar to Tyreek Hill. I’ve called Moore the most underrated player in this class. I love what he does after the catch — he forced 30 missed tackles last season, which ranked second in FBS among receivers — and he doesn’t drop passes. He has huge hands. He’s not going to be a straight replacement for Hill, but he’ll contribute as a rookie.
Drake Jackson, DE/OLB, USC
There was a time when I thought Jackson might be a top-10 pick, but he never quite put everything together for the Trojans. Still, NFL teams will see his size (6-foot-3, 254 pounds) and physical traits and think they can coach him to hit his ceiling. For the Eagles, Jackson might be a situational pass-rusher at first while he develops his game. Edge rush is a clear need for Philly.
John Metchie III, WR, Alabama
Metchie tore his ACL in December, but he was having a fantastic season, with 96 catches for 1,142 yards and eight scores. He can play in the slot and make a difference in the middle of the field for the Steelers, which let JuJu Smith-Schuster walk in free agency. Metchie should be able to recover to play in Week 1 — and potentially help Kenny Pickett.
Alec Pierce, WR, Cincinnati
My comp for Pierce will be familiar to Packers fans — it’s Jordy Nelson. And Green Bay got Nelson in the second round, too. The 6-foot-3 Pierce ran a 4.41 40 at the combine and also had a 40.5-inch vertical. He has rare physical tools, which have him climbing draft boards. He could thrive on go routes from Aaron Rodgers.
Logan Hall, DL, Houston
This is another Patriots-type pick, because Hall is a bit of a tweener. At 6-foot-6 and 283 pounds, he might be best suited for a defensive end spot in a 3-4 scheme, or he could kick inside and play as a 3-technique tackle. Bill Belichick & Co. will be able to use him in different ways. Hall has put on more than 50 pounds since high school, so he’s still growing into his frame.
Roger McCreary, CB, Auburn
McCreary is fundamentally sound and advanced in his technique, but he’s undersized (5-foot-11) with short arms. He’s also not as explosive as a few other corners in this class. Still, he has some great tape, and I don’t think he’ll drop past Round 3, because he could be a great nickel corner. Arizona has to add quality depth in the secondary.
Abraham Lucas, OT, Washington State
The Cowboys released La’el Collins and think Terence Steele, a former undrafted free agent, can be the starter at right tackle. Let’s add some competition, though. Lucas impressed at the combine, and he stonewalled edge rushers on the right side for the Cougars. If he doesn’t start at tackle, he could move inside to guard. The O-line is a clear area to upgrade for Dallas.
Kenneth Walker III, RB, Michigan State
Bills fans would be thrilled with these two picks, right? Buffalo would address its hole in the secondary with Daxton Hill in Round 1, then get a starting-caliber late in Round 2. Walker is a bulldozer with some juice through the hole. He wasn’t used much as a receiver in college (just 19 career catches), so that’s a question mark. But for a team that needs to take pressure off its quarterback and has excellent receivers, Walker could thrive.
Troy Andersen, LB, Montana State
Andersen played as an off-ball linebacker — and quarterback, running back — in college, racking up 150 tackles last season. He impressed at the combine, running a 4.42 40 at 6-foot-3 and 243 pounds. That’s an elite number. Atlanta just has to focus on replenishing its roster, so this is great value.
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Check out the best highlights from Troy Andersen’s collegiate career at Montana State.
Myjai Sanders, DE/OLB, Cincinnati
Sanders weighed just 228 pounds at the combine and reportedly had lost weight because of a stomach bug. He should settle in the 240-range in the NFL, and he might be best suited as an outside linebacker. But he has some explosive traits off the edge, and he could be an interesting high-upside pick on Day 2. The Packers have to add young edge talent in this draft.
Cole Strange, G, Chattanooga
Super Bowl contenders are allowed to use the draft to fill needs, because they don’t have many holes. And really, the Bucs and Bills are the two teams with the fewest number of obvious holes. With Ali Marpet retiring and Alex Cappa signing with the Bengals, Tampa will have two new starters at guard. Strange made 44 starts in college and showed at the Senior Bowl that he could play with the best of the best.
Cam Taylor-Britt, DB, Nebraska
This is the 49ers’ debut pick in this draft, but this late in Round 2, they’re not going to be guaranteed to get a starter. They can take a need position, sure, but they shouldn’t reach to make it happen. Taylor-Britt makes sense because he has some raw tools with which to work and has the skill set to play multiple spots. He had 11 pass breakups last season. San Francisco signed Charvarius Ward but should add corner depth.
Jalen Tolbert, WR, South Alabama
How about one more wideout for the Chiefs? Tolbert had 2,559 receiving yards over the past two seasons. At 6-foot-1 and 194 pounds, he has the ability to run every route, and coach Andy Reid can scheme him open around the formation. This lets Kansas City try to replace Tyreek Hill with two wideouts (I also gave it Skyy Moore earlier in the round), both of whom will need some time to adjust to the NFL.
Greg Dulcich, TE, UCLA
Let’s end this projection with the top tight ends in the class. Dulcich averaged 17.3 yards per catch last season, lining up mostly next to offensive tackles. He ran some routes out of the slot, but if the Bengals want to replace C.J. Uzomah with a similar tight end, that’s Dulcich.
Trey McBride, TE, Colorado State
McBride is more advanced as a pass-catcher than Dulcich, which is what the Broncos need with new quarterback Russell Wilson. With Noah Fant off to Seattle, there are targets available. McBride had 90 catches for 1,121 yards last season; he could stretch the seams in Denver.
