Week 4 of the NFL season is here, and teams continue to assess injuries to their players ahead of game time.
The San Francisco 49ers have suffered another blow to their offense, as star left tackle Trent Williams is expected to be out four to six weeks with an ankle injury. Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair will miss time after he sprained an MCL against the Denver Broncos. The New York Giants also lost a key offensive player after wide receiver Sterling Shepard tore an ACL against the Dallas Cowboys on Monday, ending his season.
The New England Patriots will be without quarterback Mac Jones, who suffered a high ankle sprain last week against the Baltimore Ravens. Veteran Brian Hoyer will start Sunday against the Green Bay Packers. He has lost 11 consecutive starts.
In more positive news, New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson is expected to make his 2022 debut against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. Wilson has been out since the first game of the preseason because of a torn meniscus and a bone bruise in his right knee.
Our NFL Nation reporters have more updates on key players entering the weekend:
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Injury: Knee
Patterson is officially listed as questionable on the team’s injury report, but he told ESPN on Friday that he plans on playing against the Cleveland Browns.
“I feel like I’m going to play every Sunday, no matter what the situation is,” Patterson said. “I plan on playing Sunday and we all know that’s the plan.”
Patterson, the NFL’s third-leading rusher, did not practice Wednesday or Thursday and was listed as a “resting player/knee.” He returned to practice Friday, did work on a limited basis and then was listed as questionable with a knee injury.
Coach Arthur Smith said Friday that Patterson “looked good,” but that he would assess Patterson’s status Saturday.
— Michael Rothstein
Injury: Ankle
Stanley, who is officially listed as questionable, said he’s “really close” to returning after missing 31 of the past 32 games. He was given a rest day Friday after fully practicing the previous two days. The Ravens could use the 2019 All-Pro left tackle to protect Lamar Jackson’s blind side. If Stanley can’t play, Baltimore would turn to rookie fourth-round pick Daniel Faalele to block Von Miller.
— Jamison Hensley
Injury: Quad
Barring a setback, McCaffrey should be able to go on Sunday after missing Wednesday and Thursday’s practices. McCaffrey returned to practice Friday in a limited role, and coach Matt Rhule said he was “hopeful” his star would be ready. McCaffrey gave no indication he wouldn’t be ready. “I feel great,” he said.
— David Newton
Injury: Knee
Let’s call this take two. It seemed like Gallup would make his debut last Monday against the New York Giants but he wanted some more time to feel right before coming back. He has had another week of full practices, although the Cowboys were not in pads at all this week. Gallup said he needed to clear a mental hurdle in coming back from the surgery. It appears he is trending toward playing vs. Washington, but he will work his way into the lineup on a snap count. They will not give him the full assortment of plays right away, so Noah Brown will continue as the No. 2 receiver with Gallup seeing something of a situational role. Tight end Dalton Schultz is also trending in the right direction of playing after missing the Giants game with a knee sprain. He has worn a brace in practice, and like Gallup, he might be limited in the number of snaps he plays until he is all the way back.
— Todd Archer
Injury: Groin
Patriots backup quarterback Brian Hoyer might have it a little easier if the Packers’ best coverage defensive back doesn’t play. Alexander dropped out of last week’s game at Tampa Bay, did not appear to do much in practice all week and is questionable for Sunday. Rasul Douglas moved from the slot to the outside after Alexander’s injury, and Keisean Nixon filled in in the slot.
— Rob Demovsky
Injury: Back
Leonard is listed as questionable for the first time this season after being ruled out in the previous three games. The recovery from Leonard’s offseason back surgery has lingered, but the tide turned this week.
“He’s had three pretty good days, continued to make progress,” coach Frank Reich said. “So, let’s see how he responds.”
If Leonard plays, the Colts might consider limiting his snaps. “The original thought was he would probably start out on a pitch count, but you don’t want to limit yourself. You just take it day by day and case by case and you kind of adapt as you go,” Reich said.
Injury: Elbow
Buckner is considered questionable and has been severely limited this week. But his history of playing while injured suggests that he’ll find a way to show up on Sunday. Buckner has missed just one game due to injury in his seven seasons.
Injury: Ankle
The Colts’ starting free safety will miss Sunday’s game with an ankle sprain, a development that will likely press seventh-round pick Rodney Thomas II into action. Thomas played well in last week’s game after Blackmon left the contest and impressed coaches.
— Stephen Holder
Injury: Hamstring
Allen suffered a hamstring injury in Week 1, was inactive in Week 2 and 3 and will remain on the sideline Sunday when the Chargers play the Texans. Earlier in the week, coach Brandon Staley expressed growing confidence that Allen would return in Week 4, but said Friday that the veteran receiver “felt something” during individual workouts, so he has been ruled out.
Time to preview the 2021 NFL playoffs by running through my playoff bracket. I’ll pick winners for each of the six games we’re going to see this wild-card weekend, project who wins the games that will follow and make it all the way to Super Bowl LVI. In all, I’ll break down 13 different matchups and why I think they’ll favor one team or the other.
Of course, it goes without saying that this bracket will not be correct. Even if we were being generous and assuming that my pick had a 65% chance of winning each game, the chances of hitting 13 consecutive selections are just over 240-to-1. Injuries, COVID-19 absences and bad luck will pop up. Even with a 17-game season, we overestimate how much we actually know about each team and its true talent level. This makes the playoffs hard to predict and wildly entertaining to watch.
Regardless, here’s my bracket. I’ll start with wild-card weekend and work my way to the Super Bowl. Let’s begin with the AFC side, where the Steelers were given a new lease on life in the final seconds of the regular season. Can they keep Ben Roethlisberger’s career going with a miraculous playoff run?
Jump to a round: Wild-card weekend: NFC | AFC Divisional round: NFC | AFC Conference title games: NFC | AFC Super Bowl LVI
AFC wild-card weekend
These two teams met three weeks ago, and it wasn’t exactly pretty. The Chiefs won 36-10 in a game in which nothing went Pittsburgh’s way. There were five fumbles; guess how many the Steelers recovered? The answer is zero. Teams that have recovered zero of five fumbles in any game since 2000 are just 11-25, and even that seems high. As significant underdogs against the Chiefs in Kansas City with even neutral luck, the Steelers can’t afford to have the Chiefs recover five fumbles in any matchup.
I don’t suspect that will happen again, and if it doesn’t, the Steelers might be a tougher matchup for the Chiefs than it would seem on paper. T.J. Watt was able to play only 55% of the defensive snaps in the first game, and he should be in a full-time role against a Chiefs team struggling with injuries up front. Watt will line up against right tackle, which is the weakest spot on Kansas City’s line. Week 1 starter Lucas Niang lost his job and went down in December with a torn patella. Swing tackle Mike Remmers is on injured reserve with a back issue. Andrew Wylie, who started at right tackle in the Super Bowl loss to the Buccaneers, will be the starter against the likely Defensive Player of the Year.
Key players such as Orlando Brown Jr. and Tyreek Hill also appear to be less than 100% for the postseason, with Hill (heel) limited to 12 snaps in the Week 18 win over the Broncos. The star wideout hasn’t been his usual self since contracting COVID-19 before Week 16. Losing Hill allows opposing defenses to squeeze the field, creating more opportunities for the tipped interceptions that plagued Kansas City during the first half of the season. Few teams in the NFL are better at creating interceptions on a year-to-year basis on those sorts of plays than the Steelers.
The problem for the Steelers is that there isn’t much doing on the other side of the ball. It would be one thing if we could count on them to pick up a blocked punt for a score or a short field, as they did in the Week 1 win over the Bills, but the Chiefs have the league’s third-best special teams unit. The Steelers don’t have the offensive line to protect Ben Roethlisberger, the running game to control the clock or the consistent big-play ability to scare the Chiefs in coverage. This could be closer than expected, but I would expect Roethlisberger’s career to end here. Prediction: Chiefs 24, Steelers 20.
These two teams have played twice since the start of December, with the Patriots overcoming howling winds to win 14-10 in Buffalo before the Bills returned the favor with a 33-21 victory in Foxborough, Massachusetts. Western New York is expected to face sub-zero conditions Saturday night, but the wind gusts that rendered the passing game irrelevant in Week 13 aren’t expected to be in place.
Unfortunately for the Patriots, opening up the passing game reveals the biggest advantage between these two teams. Josh Allen played one of the best games of his career in the win over New England, threading immaculate passes through tight windows against one of the league’s best defenses. He has been inconsistent over the past month — he followed that Patriots game by going 11-of-26 for three picks in a win over the Falcons — but we know he typically has the sort of ceiling that rookie Mac Jones hasn’t really shown so far.
If the Patriots can get an early lead, as they did against the Bills in the first matchup, they won’t need to take the training wheels off Jones and the passing attack. Forced into a shootout, he has not often been able to keep up. (Even in the 35-29 overtime loss to the Cowboys, he threw just 21 pass attempts.) Jones was 14-of-32 for 145 yards with two picks against the Buffalo defense in Week 16. Since producing his best NFL game — 310 yards and two touchdowns against the Titans in Week 12 — he has turned the ball over six times in five games and posted a passer rating of 79.8. It’s difficult to imagine Jones suddenly turning things around against the league’s best pass defense by DVOA.
The other advantage the Bills have, as the wonderful Mike Reiss noted on Twitter, is health. The Patriots have a number of defensive starters who either aren’t 100% or might be out for Saturday’s game, notably breakout rookie tackle Christian Barmore, who left the Week 18 loss to the Dolphins with a knee injury. The Bills are relatively healthy outside of the long-term absence of star corner Tre’Davious White. I’d expect a low-scoring slog and a home win for Buffalo over its hated rival. Prediction: Bills 19, Patriots 10.
While the regular-season finale against the Chargers came down to a frantic conclusion, the Raiders got their just desserts when Daniel Carlson hit his winning field goal. They outplayed the Chargers throughout Sunday’s game, only for Justin Herbert to bail out the offense with a series of preposterous plays on fourth downs. The Raiders dominated the line of scrimmage, as the offensive line did an excellent job of protecting Derek Carr, while Maxx Crosby dominated Storm Norton and harassed Herbert throughout the contest.
To get to that point, though, the Raiders rode their luck against a series of compromised quarterbacks. After dropping to 6-7, they landed consecutive games against backup quarterbacks Nick Mullens (Browns) and Drew Lock (Broncos). In Week 17, they played Carson Wentz after the Colts’ starter spent the entire week on the COVID-19 list, only to be cleared hours before game time. Wentz averaged just 5.5 yards per attempt in the first of Indianapolis’ two upset losses to end the season. The Raiders won those games by a total of just nine points.
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The Fantasy Focus crew debate whether Deebo Samuel or Joe Burrow deserves the comeback player of the year award.
Of course, you could make the same case that the Bengals might be overrated by their recent performance. Joe Burrow played like an MVP candidate in consecutive wins over the Ravens and Chiefs, throwing for a combined 971 yards and eight touchdowns. Those games matter, but they’re also way out of line with his performances from week to week. The 2021 No. 1 overall pick had thrown for 995 yards and five touchdowns over his prior four games up to that point while also mixing in four giveaways. Burrow and the Bengals are for real on offense, but expecting them to be the Greatest Show on Turf Rams is probably an exaggeration.
The problem for the Raiders is that I’m not sure another dominant game from Crosby would even be enough. When the Raiders played the Bengals earlier this season, the star end posted a 61.5% pass rush win rate, the best mark we’ve seen from an edge rusher in a single game all season. It slowed down the Cincinnati passing attack, with Burrow throwing for just 148 passing yards on 29 attempts, but Joe Mixon & Co. ran for 159 yards and two touchdowns. The Raiders were able to muster only 13 first downs, even with Darren Waller in the fold. Unless the knee injury Burrow rested in Week 18 is more significant than publicly reported, I don’t think the Raiders have enough to keep their win streak going. Prediction: Bengals 27, Raiders 17.
NFC wild-card weekend
Here’s a list of quarterbacks the Eagles have beaten this season: Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold, Jake Fromm, Garrett Gilbert, Jared Goff, Taylor Heinicke, Matt Ryan, Trevor Siemian and Zach Wilson. We’re looking at four backups, a guy who was benched, two players who were salary dumped this offseason, a struggling top-three pick and Ryan. When Tom Brady faced this secondary in Week 6, he went 34-of-42 with 297 yards in a game the Bucs led 28-7 before two late Philly scores.
That game preceded Philadelphia’s midseason awakening to run the ball more with Jalen Hurts at quarterback, a shift it was able to pull off in part because its schedule got much easier. I don’t love the Eagles’ matchup against one of the league’s best run defenses, especially with Hurts possibly slowed by an ankle injury.
When the Bucs played the Saints’ quarterback run-heavy offense a few weeks back, they held Taysom Hill & Co. to 61 yards on 21 carries. New Orleans still won, but it needed to shut out the Bucs to do so. I don’t like Philly’s chances of repeating that feat. Prediction: Bucs 34, Eagles 10.
The 49ers have the sort of roster capable of giving any team fits, and they are one of the few organizations with the sort of star-laden core that can match the Cowboys. We just saw Jimmy Garoppolo produce one of the best drives of his career in marching the 49ers down the field for the winning score against the Rams, which helped push San Francisco back into the postseason.
As was the case for the No. 7 seed, though, I don’t like this matchup for the 49ers. Kyle Shanahan’s team struggles to stay afloat when it turns the ball over; the 49ers have gone 2-6 when they turn the ball over two or more times this year and 8-1 otherwise. They’re facing a Cowboys defense that has forced two or more takeaways 12 different times this season, a feat last accomplished by the 2019 Steelers and the 2013 Legion of Boom Seahawks.
With the 49ers bereft at cornerback against a team with multiple star receivers, they will need a heroic effort on the ground to stick with Dallas, and while that’s possible, I don’t trust an injured Garoppolo to protect the football, especially with star left tackle Trent Williams questionable to play. Prediction: Cowboys 27, 49ers 14.
I’m not sure there are many teams that have seemed less convincing while winning five of six than these Rams. Matthew Stafford has alternated white-hot stretches of passing with halves in which he has made inexplicable decisions with the football. In Los Angeles’ season-ending loss to the 49ers, he went 15-of-16 for 153 yards with two touchdowns in the first half, then threw two picks after halftime, including a game-ender to rookie Ambry Thomas.
The Cardinals weren’t able to take advantage in Week 18, as their 38-30 loss to the Seahawks handed the NFC West to Los Angeles. Facing an inconsistent Seattle offense, the Cardinals looked like they were still working out preseason mistakes. Blown coverages led to long touchdowns for Tyler Lockett and Freddie Swain, while the defense left a gap unfilled on the 62-yard Rashaad Penny touchdown. Arizona has the roster to overcome the occasional lapse or mental mistake, but the margins are tighter against the league’s best teams.
Perhaps more disconcertingly, the Arizona offense has undergone yet another second-half fade. During their 1-4 run to finish the season, the Cardinals ranked 17th in offensive EPA per play, below the Texans and Lions. That drop-off came when receiver DeAndre Hopkins, running back James Conner and center Rodney Hudson were each missing for stretches, but Hopkins will miss the wild-card game because a torn MCL. It’s hard to believe the Cardinals are suddenly going to turn things around without him. Prediction: Rams 27, Cardinals 20.
AFC divisional round
The reward for the Bengals would be a trip to Nashville to play the top-seeded Titans, who might be the most difficult team in the league to figure out. Advanced metrics don’t just see them as less impressive than their record; they see them as a pretender. DVOA ranks Tennessee as the league’s 20th-best team, below the likes of the Vikings and Broncos. Football Outsiders has data going back through the early 1980s and suggests that the Titans would be both the worst No. 1 or No. 2 seed ever. ESPN’s Football Power Index also has the Titans as the worst No. 1 seed going back through 2008.
Is there something the numbers are missing? One thing clearly comes to mind: health. The Titans were without A.J. Brown and Julio Jones for chunks of the season and didn’t have star back Derrick Henry in the lineup for the second half of the campaign. Their big three played just 120 snaps together this season, and they’re all expected to be present and accounted for when the Titans take the field in the divisional round..
As I mentioned on the ESPN Daily podcast a couple of weeks ago, though, I’m not sure that Henry will offer the sort of bump we would expect. He was absorbing the largest workload in league history before his foot injury, but his efficiency had cratered in 2021. His per-carry stats were significantly down across the board. Furthermore, replacement D’Onta Foreman has been a similar back to Henry since joining the team:
I’d rather have Henry in the lineup and Foreman available to spell the returning star — and Henry’s presence should help a slumping Tennessee play-action attack — but given his drop-off before the injury and the sharpness he might have lost while sitting out for two months, I’m not confident he’ll be the guy we saw in 2019 and 2020 upon returning to the lineup.
The last time these two teams played was back in 2020, and it was a vintage rushing performance from Tennessee. Henry and Co. ran the ball 29 times and racked up 218 yards and two touchdowns. And as teams often do when they rack up 200-plus yards of offense, the Titans … lost by 11 points? In a game in which they ran the ball at will, turned the ball over only once and posted impressive conversion rates on third down and in the red zone, the Titans were blown out by a 2-6 Bengals team.
The problem then is that the Titans weren’t able to get pressure on Joe Burrow, who cooked them for 249 yards and two touchdowns. During a 2020 season in which Burrow was under pressure constantly, the Titans didn’t sack him once. They struggled despite the fact that Cincinnati was without running back Joe Mixon and four of its starting offensive linemen. The Bengals went 10-of-15 on third down and 4-of-5 scoring touchdowns in the red zone. It was their best offensive performance of the season.
Pressure was a problem for the Titans in 2020, but with Harold Landry breaking out and the secondary taking a step forward in 2021, they rank 10th in pressure rate this season. Burrow ranks third in the league in QBR when he gets time to throw, but when he’s pressured, he drops to 20th. The week off should help refresh Landry and Bud Dupree, who spent the entire season trying to catch up from his torn ACL and a midseason core injury. I think the pass rush does just enough to get the Titans back to the AFC Championship Game. Prediction: Titans 27, Bengals 20.
How much stock are you willing to put into what we saw when these teams played in Week 5? In what was widely perceived at the time as a changing of the guard in the AFC, the Bills wiped the field with the two-time defending conference champs. Josh Allen & Co. averaged more than 12 yards per play in the first half while scoring 24 points. The Chiefs improved in the second half, but one long drive ended in a tipped interception, while a Micah Hyde pick-six helped seal a 38-20 victory for the Bills.
Since then, the Chiefs are 10-2, while the Bills have gone 7-5. The changing of the guard was a little premature. The Chiefs might also feel a little unlucky about some of the events in that game. They failed to recover either of the game’s two fumbles, which came when they fumbled a kickoff return and Patrick Mahomes dropped a shotgun snap. The pick-six went through Tyreek Hill’s hands, while the interception saw Greg Rousseau swat the ball in the air with one hand to himself for a spectacular play. In a game in which those breaks don’t all go to the Bills, this one might have been closer.
With that said, it’s hard to overstate just how dominant the Bills were on offense in that matchup. The first half from Buffalo was the sixth-best first two quarters of the season in a single game by expected points added (EPA) per play. If anything, Allen left plays on the field; the only reason Daniel Sorensen isn’t still chasing Stefon Diggs is because Allen underthrew a 61-yard completion to his star wideout and because the stadium has concrete walls. The Bills got the matchups they wanted when they wanted in their passing game.
The Chiefs have made some changes in the secondary — notably, less Sorensen — but their great equalizer has to be Chris Jones, who missed the loss to the Bills. The Chiefs have looked like a different pass rush with Jones in the fold at defensive tackle after the playoff hero spent an ill-fated stretch of September outside at defensive end. It’s virtually impossible to imagine a scenario in which the Chiefs win without Jones playing a significant role.
My concern in the big picture might be the player who turned this into a great rivalry. Allen’s first- and second-half splits over the course of 2021 are dramatic:
Averaging just under a 60% completion percentage and 6 yards per attempt over the course of two months is a problem, and two of Allen’s worst games of the season have come in consecutive weeks against the Falcons and Jets, of all teams. The Chiefs have their problems on offense — and they could be seriously compromised if Hill’s injury turns out to linger throughout the AFC playoffs — but their floor is high enough on offense to be a safer bet. Prediction: Chiefs 27, Bills 20.
NFC divisional round
We already saw this game once, and it wasn’t pretty. The Packers beat the Rams 36-28 in late November, but that required the Rams to score 11 points in the fourth quarter to make things look close. Scarily enough, the Packers are expected to have three of their best players who missed that game back in the fold for the postseason, as left tackle David Bakhtiari returned for Week 18, while cornerback Jaire Alexander and edge rusher Za’Darius Smith are projected to return in the divisional round.
Are there reasons to think the Rams might have played better than it seemed the first time around? I think so. The Los Angeles defense held Aaron Rodgers below 7 yards per attempt and limited the Green Bay running game to 92 yards on 32 carries. The Packers, normally an offensive juggernaut, were able to muster only 21 first downs on 12 meaningful possessions. They scored 36 points, but the offense was aided by a Rasul Douglas pick-six, and they recovered four of the five fumbles in the game. They started three possessions inside the Los Angeles 30-yard line, something that probably won’t happen again.
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Keyshawn Johnson and Jeff Saturday go back and forth between Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady as far as who is more deserving of the MVP award.
It’s worth noting that advanced metrics are more optimistic on the Rams and pessimistic about the Packers than it might seem. DVOA ranks the Rams as the fifth-best team in the league, while the Packers rank ninth. ESPN’s FPI ranks the Rams sixth and the Packers seventh. The game-and-a-half backup quarterback Jordan Love played for Green Bay is part of the equation here, but when these two teams did play in November, it’s worth noting that the Rams were actually two-point favorites.
I think these teams are relatively close on both sides of the football, but there is one huge gap that might make up the difference: special teams. The Rams rank fourth in special teams DVOA, while it’s the one point of weakness for the Packers, who rank dead last in the category. When Rodgers is around, the Packers are usually good enough to overcome a disastrous special teams performance, like the one we saw against the Bears in Week 14. I think this game comes down to some element of special teams, like a missed field goal or a muffed punt, and the Rams are the team less likely to make that mistake. Prediction: Rams 24, Packers 23.
You might not remember it, but we’ve seen these two teams play this season, and it was one of the weirdest games of the entire campaign. In Week 1, the Bucs beat the Cowboys 31-29 in a game in which they posted a turnover margin of minus-4. Tom Brady threw two picks, the Cowboys recovered all three of the game’s fumbles, Dak Prescott threw for 403 yards and it just didn’t matter. The Cowboys kicked a field goal to go up 29-28 with 1:29 to go, but Brady drove the Bucs 57 yards in 10 plays to set up a winning field goal.
It’s fair to suggest those teams were slightly different. Tampa’s two 100-yard receivers then were Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown, who are no longer on the active roster for very different reasons. Mike Evans is banged up, Cyril Grayson is injured, Leonard Fournette is coming off injured reserve, and Ronald Jones is out heading into the wild-card round. The Bucs’ skill players are nowhere near where they stood in Week 1, when Dallas’ Micah Parsons was making his NFL debut and spending virtually every first down playing as an off-ball linebacker.
Think back to the teams that have given Brady fits in postseasons past. What do the 2007 Giants, 2011 Giants and 2015 Broncos have in common? They all had multiple devastating pass-rushers capable of winning one-on-one. With Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory, the Cowboys can threaten Brady without having to blitz. They also have a quarterback who excels against the blitz-heavy schemes Todd Bowles runs in Prescott, who ranks fourth in the NFL in QBR against the blitz and 16th when teams don’t send extra pressure.
All of that is true, and yet, I still can’t bring myself to pick the Cowboys. I can see them slowing down Brady — and they’re the best team in the league at forcing takeaways — but I don’t think they can count on generating four turnovers again. Dallas’ dream scenario would be a game that played out exactly the way the game in Week 1 did … and the Cowboys still managed to lose that one. I don’t think they’ll get as favorable a script here. Prediction: Buccaneers 20, Cowboys 17.
AFC Championship Game
As it turned out, the changing of the guard in the AFC might have come two weeks later, when the Chiefs were stomped 27-3 by the Titans in Nashville. Unlike the Bills game, this one came with Chris Jones on the field. With Patrick Mahomes fumbling twice and throwing an ill-advised interception toward Josh Gordon, this was the rare Kansas City blowout loss bad enough to get Chad Henne on the field in the garbage time.
Unlike the narrow Titans win over the Bills, which required a goal line stop of Josh Allen and a spectacular game from Derrick Henry, this victory also felt like a standard Titans performance. Henry and the rushing game weren’t even that effective, turning 35 carries into just 103 yards, but the Titans gouged Steve Spagnuolo’s defense through the air. Henry threw a 5-yard touchdown pass in the red zone, while Ryan Tannehill averaged 10 yards per pass attempt. This wasn’t even the product of a dominant play-action day; A.J. Brown had 80 receiving yards in the first quarter, beating L’Jarius Sneed and Mike Hughes for big gains on iso balls.
From that point forward, though, the Chiefs have been a better team on defense. Through the first seven weeks of the season, which culminated in that Titans game, Kansas City allowed 0.17 EPA per play, the worst mark in football. Since that game, the Chiefs have bounced back to the tune of minus-0.05 EPA per play, which is the sixth-best mark and just behind the Titans over that same time frame. Willie Gay and Charvarius Ward took over and returned as regulars, respectively, for the Titans game, and while they weren’t able to make a difference in that contest, the Chiefs have been much better since they became regulars. Juan Thornhill has also taken over as a starting safety, pushing Daniel Sorensen into a backup role.
Go back further and we’ve seen how each of these teams can win. When the Titans beat the Chiefs 35-32 in 2019, it was the product of a classic Henry game, as he ran for 188 yards and two touchdowns. Later that postseason, the Chiefs overcame an early 10-0 deficit, limited Henry to 69 yards on 19 carries and forced Tannehill to try to keep up with Mahomes in what became a shootout. Kansas City won 35-24. Both those formulas are plausible paths to victory for these teams this postseason.
In a way, the Chiefs and Titans are similar. We know they’re capable of being very good on both sides of the ball, but more often than not, they’ve won while mixing a great day on offense or defense with a messier performance on the other side. The Tennessee win over Kansas City, ironically, might represent one of the few cases in which the Titans were great all around.
There are two reasons I lean toward the Chiefs. One is special teams, which can be a deciding force in close games. Under the stewardship of legendary special teams coordinator Dave Toub, they rank third in the league in special teams DVOA. The Titans rank 22nd. The variance over a handful of special teams plays in a single game means anything is possible, but in most cases, we would favor the Chiefs to be the team to make a significant dent with their work on that underdiscussed facet of football.
The other is the formula we’ve seen to beat these teams: takeaways. When they’ve turned the ball over three or more times in 2021, the Chiefs and Titans are a combined 1-7. The rest of the time, they’ve gone 23-3. When I look at which of these defenses is more likely to generate those sorts of turnovers, I lean toward Kansas City, which has forced 29 takeaways to Tennessee’s 22.
If we believe the advanced metrics such as DVOA and ESPN’s FPI, the matchup between the Chiefs and Titans shouldn’t be close. I’m willing to believe that the Titans are better than the numbers indicate, but I still think the Chiefs head to Super Bowl LVI. Prediction: Chiefs 30, Titans 20.
NFC Championship Game
The Rams’ most impressive victory of the season came back in Week 3, when they went up 34-17 in the fourth quarter on the Bucs before a garbage-time touchdown by Gio Bernard. The Rams controlled the line of scrimmage, holding the Tampa running game to just 35 yards on 13 carries while sacking Tom Brady three times. If the mentions of Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin made the Bucs-Cowboys game seem like another era, though, consider that the leading receiver for the Rams in this game was DeSean Jackson, who had 40- and 75-yard catches. He finished the season with the Raiders.
Both teams look different than the units we saw back in September, but I’m more concerned about the injuries on the Tampa side of things. I mentioned its various absences and ailments on offense. The early-season injury stack at cornerback has healed up, but the Bucs just recalled star linebacker Lavonte David from injured reserve after the veteran went down with a foot injury against the Saints. David might be back as early as the Eagles game, but if he’s not 100%, it hurts the Bucs, especially against a team that works play-action as well as the Rams.
Los Angeles, on the other hand, is down two starters in wideout Robert Woods and safety Jordan Fuller, who just went down for the rest of the season in the loss to the 49ers. Both are big absences, admittedly, but their injury issues are not as pervasive as what we’re seeing in Tampa. The Bucs are also the league’s oldest team by a considerable margin in terms of snap-weighted age, so it’s entirely possible they’re more likely to develop new injuries over the next couple of weeks.
As much attention as Brady and the skill players get, the Bucs win a lot of games by dominating the line of scrimmage. Few teams can make a case for having the best offensive line and the best defensive line in football. The Rams aren’t quite there, but they also have the single most devastating defender in football in Aaron Donald, who has been on fire heading into the postseason.
I also think the Los Angeles offense matches up well against Tampa’s plans on defense. Dak Prescott is good against the blitz, but the league’s No. 1 quarterback against the blitz this season has been Matthew Stafford, whose 92.3 QBR against extra rushers has made it difficult to go after him. We know Stafford can get white hot when he’s on his game; it wouldn’t shock me if he had a career performance in the NFC Championship Game and helped propel the Rams to the Super Bowl. Prediction: Rams 34, Buccaneers 27.
Super Bowl LVI
In full disclosure, this was the pick I made before the season on SportsCenter with Scott Van Pelt. Last year, my preseason pick was Buccaneers-Chiefs, so I looked pretty good when those two teams made it to the Super Bowl. Of course, I also picked the Chiefs to win before they were blown out by the Bucs, so I don’t deserve too many pats on the back there.
This is the long-awaited rematch of the legendary 54-51 Monday Night Football game from 2018, although the Rams’ leading passer (Jared Goff), rusher (Todd Gurley), receiver (Brandin Cooks) and scorers (Gerald Everett and defender Samson Ebukam) from that day are no longer on their roster. Kareem Hunt and Justin Houston are gone, but many of the key players for the Chiefs in that game are still around. The result might have been different if Kansas City had already had Tyrann Mathieu, who would join the team in free agency after the season.
There would be some fascinating tactical matchups here. Would Jalen Ramsey cover Travis Kelce or Tyreek Hill, who would have an extra week of rest for his heel injury? Could Kansas City’ star rookie duo of Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith neutralize Aaron Donald? Do the Chiefs have anyone who can move around and cover Cooper Kupp? Given Kansas City’s perennial issues stopping the run, would the Rams be able to march down the field with their rushing attack of Sony Michel and Cam Akers, who will be another month removed from his torn Achilles by February?
The first mismatch that stands out to me, though, is Chris Jones against the interior of the Rams’ offensive line. Los Angeles is stout at tackle with the ageless Andrew Whitworth and Rob Havenstein, but we saw the Titans give them fits with interior rushers Denico Autry and Jeffery Simmons in Tennessee’s win earlier this season. Jones could have that sort of impact against what might be the weakest spot on the Rams’ roster.
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Ryan Clark breaks down why he’s not buying into the Kansas City Chiefs, especially with their tough road to make it to Super Bowl LVI.
The other problem for the Rams is that they struggle to get off the field on third down, ranking 21st in third-down conversion rate. That mark unsurprisingly gets worse in their losses, where they allow opposing teams to convert 50% of the time, which ranks 27th when compared to other teams in their respective losses. The Chiefs have been the league’s best team at moving the chains, converting more than 52% of the time this season.
Of course, the Chiefs have their own problems to worry about. I don’t think they have a great answer for Kupp. They have the worst QBR in the league against play-action, and while the Rams aren’t as play-action intensive as they were in 2018, it’s something I’m sure the Rams would notice as they have two weeks to prepare for the Super Bowl. Los Angeles also is one of the few teams that has a cornerback like Ramsey, who can credibly match up one-on-one against Kelce on the backside of 3×1 sets or run with Hill as the No. 3 receiver on the frontside.
With that said, given two weeks to prepare for any game, I like Andy Reid’s chances. Patrick Mahomes might not have hit the heights we’ve seen in years past, but he has been more consistent and collected than Stafford, who has run hot and cold in the same game at times. I don’t think we would see another 54-51 classic, but if it comes down to Chiefs-Rams, I’ll stick with my preseason prediction for which team wins, too. Prediction: Chiefs 31, Rams 24.
Every year around this time, I run through the various head-coaching opportunities that might come open at the end of the NFL season. Sometimes, these jobs stay filled. Other times, different jobs unexpectedly pop open. Usually, though, we can run through somewhere around seven to eight openings or expected openings toward the end of December.
That’s not the case this year. The Jaguars job is available after Urban Meyer was let go earlier this month, and the Raiders have an interim coach after they parted ways with Jon Gruden, but there aren’t many other spots looming as clear and obvious opportunities. I was able to get to seven, but even that was a bit of a stretch, with a few likely leaning toward a return from their existing coach. It’s possible we see only two or three new head coaches this offseason.
Let’s run through openings and rank them in terms of their desirability for a coach with options. Last year’s top pick was the Chargers, who had just about everything an incoming coach would want: a desirable location for players and coaches alike, relatively patient ownership, a talented roster and a franchise quarterback on a rookie deal in Justin Herbert. Picking the No. 1 job this year was far more difficult.
It’s easier to start with the job that is least desirable heading into 2022, although a recent winning streak might make it harder for this team to move on from its first-year coach:
Jump to a team: Bears | Broncos Jaguars | Panthers Raiders | Texans | Vikings
Pros: Draft capital Cons: Uncertainty at quarterback, executive/ownership mess, lack of talent
It seemed like a foregone conclusion that the Texans would be one-and-done with David Culley as their coach, but they have heated up over the past two weeks. It was one thing when they completed their season sweep of the Jaguars in Week 15, but Culley’s team outplayed the playoff-hopeful Chargers on Sunday in a 41-29 victory. Houston finishes with games against the 49ers and Titans, and if it can win one of those two, it will actually finish with more wins in 2021 than it had with a full season from Deshaun Watson in 2020.
Of course, the specter of Watson hangs over the franchise and its future plans. It seems unlikely that Watson will ever play for the Texans again, owing to his trade request, subsequent holdout and the allegations of sexual assault or inappropriate behavior levied against him by 22 women. It’s crass to speculate on a Watson trade before the criminal and civil inquiries into his behavior have been completed, but it’s only realistic to point out that the franchise is basically on hold until his future is resolved. It’s unclear whether that will be before the 2022 league year begins, and if Watson remains in limbo this winter, it will impact whether the Texans can find someone willing to take on the difficult task Culley faced this year.
Beyond Watson’s situation, there’s little in the cupboard for a new coach to build around. General manager Nick Caserio spent the offseason signing competent, low-ceiling veterans to fill out the roster. Many of those players will be free agents after the season. With the salary cap projected to return north of $200 million in 2022, I suspect that the veterans the Texans targeted this year will sign for more competitive teams this time around. They have had just nine players on rookie contracts play at least 500 snaps this season, and three of those players — Justin Reid, Geron Christian and Jacob Martin — are unrestricted free agents this offseason. Rookie quarterback Davis Mills has looked better the past two weeks, but his 32.6 Total QBR shouldn’t stand in the way of the Texans upgrading in the offseason.
On top of all that, the situation above the coaching staff in Houston feels like a minefield. Caserio was imported from the Patriots to run football operations. Former New England team chaplain Jack Easterby has a meaningful-but-undefined role within the organization. Owner Cal McNair has shown virtually no evidence of competency since inheriting the team from his father. I took many issues with the roster moves Bill O’Brien made during his time running personnel with the Texans, but it was bizarre to see McNair back the former Penn State coach for two offseasons before firing O’Brien four games into the 2020 season. Any coach who interviews for this job is going to look over his shoulder and wonder whether he’s about to lose a political struggle or get kicked out if Josh McDaniels is willing to leave New England.
There’s a scenario in which this becomes a desirable job. The Texans will have a top-five pick in the 2022 NFL draft. At some point, if they do trade Watson, they would likely add multiple first-rounders, which would make their future more appealing. As it is, Houston has all of the trappings of an expansion team without the optimism or the fresh start.
Pros: Young quarterback in place, patient ownership, cap space Cons: Missing draft capital, roster depth
While it seems like the Matt Nagy era is coming to a close, the Bears have been surprisingly feisty over the past couple of weeks. Cornerback Jaylon Johnson suggested earlier this month that some players were starting to go into the tank, but we’ve seen this team show a real effort in the primetime loss to the Vikings and Sunday’s win over the Seahawks in Seattle. It would be tough to argue that the Bears are good, but they’re fighting with absolutely nothing whatsoever to play for in late December.
I don’t think that will save Nagy’s job, but it might make this job more appealing to a coach who thinks he won’t have to clear out quite as many players. Whether it’s general manager Ryan Pace or a new GM accompanying this coach, the Bears will have work to do. Top wide receiver Allen Robinson is a free agent, as are three of the starters from a much-maligned offensive line. They have one wide receiver (Darnell Mooney) and one offensive lineman (Teven Jenkins) who should be inked in as starters in 2022, and Jenkins has made two career starts. This might appeal to a coach who wants to build an offense to his desired specifications, but there’s a lot of work to be done.
Of course, whoever takes over will need to believe he can help mold quarterback Justin Fields into a superstar. The Bears traded away their first-round pick in 2022 to move up for Fields, whose first season was uneven. He deserves some of the blame for his struggles, but it’s hard to argue that he got much help from the players around him or with Nagy’s scheme. The Bears are realistically committed to Fields for the next two seasons, so whomever they hire can’t count on getting a chance to work with a new quarterback, even if Pace was somehow allowed to sign, draft or acquire five different starting passers.
I’m excited about Fields’ potential — and a tough schedule has masked a league-average performance by Sean Desai’s defense this season — but there’s still a lot to worry about with this job. Years of trading up in the draft have left the Bears with a thin roster, as Pace’s aptitude in finding useful players in the middle rounds of drafts has been countered by a lack of picks. They will be down their first- and fourth-round selections in 2022, and they feel light years behind the Packers in the NFC North. Things can move fast if Fields excels in Year 2, but there’s a staggering amount of work to be done to give him a reasonable chance of success.
Pros: Quarterback, veteran pieces, desirable location Cons: Lack of young talent, depth
After squeaking out narrow victories over the Browns and Broncos in consecutive weeks, the Raiders are back in the playoff hunt and hold what could be critical head-to-head tiebreakers. With the Chargers losing unexpectedly to the Texans, the Raiders control their own destiny. Beat the Colts in Indy and the Chargers at home, and they will make it back to the postseason for just the second time in 19 seasons.
If they do advance to the playoffs, there’s a reasonable chance interim coach Rich Bisaccia would take over the job on a permanent basis. It’s not the worst thing in the world for them to maintain continuity, and there’s plenty of coaching experience on staff, although Bisaccia’s game management as a first-time head coach has been distressingly bad. The Raiders have been outscored by 61 points in Bisaccia’s 10 games in charge, so their 5-5 record with him at the helm is generous.
On the other hand, the Raiders controlled their own destiny this time a year ago and lost in heartbreaking fashion to the Dolphins. If they slip up again, the chances of Bisaccia retaining the job decrease dramatically. And if they do look outside the organization for a coach (and/or general manager), the most important question revolves around what that new regime wants to do at quarterback.
Derek Carr is not the problem with the team, as the veteran ranks 10th in Total QBR with two weeks to go, but team owner Mark Davis & Co. have to decide whether they want to set their sights higher. Carr will be entering the final year of his five-year, $125 million extension in 2022, a point at which teams almost always either give their quarterback a new deal or make a move to replace them. He has earned that new contract, but if the Raiders get an itch to go after someone such as Russell Wilson, they might see what they can get for the veteran on the trade market.
Whether Carr stays or gets replaced with a higher-ceiling passer, this job could appeal to some coaches. Las Vegas is an attractive destination for free agents, and Nevada has no state income tax. Davis has generally given his coaches and general managers a long leash, although the P.F. Chang’s enthusiast cut bait on Jack Del Rio and Reggie McKenzie to install Gruden as football czar in 2018.
As I wrote about after Gruden was fired, though, there’s not a ton to like here in terms of the roster. The Raiders lack for young talent; they have a pair of building blocks on either side of the line in Maxx Crosby and Kolton Miller, but their other rookie contract contributors generally play marginal positions like running back, slot receiver and box safety — and not always all that well. Veteran stopgaps such as Casey Hayward have helped the roster, but this team isn’t one draft or free-agent period away from seriously competing with the Chiefs in the AFC West.
Pros: Young talent Cons: Lack of quarterback, missing draft capital
I would be surprised if the Panthers fired Matt Rhule two years into a seven-year pact, but they have to consider their options. They’re 5-10. Since starting 3-0 with victories over the Jets, Saints and Texans, they have won two games: a 6-point win over a Falcons team that ranks 32nd in DVOA, and a blowout victory over the Colt McCoy-led Cardinals. They’ve been outscored by 107 points during this 2-10 stretch.
There are teams that post ugly records but look competitive for most of their seasons. The Panthers were competitive earlier in the year, but their games have turned into farces over the last 1 1/2 months. After quarterback Sam Darnold went on injured reserve, they first turned to P.J. Walker and then signed Cam Newton off the street; with Newton struggling, Rhule has fired offensive coordinator Joe Brady and turned to a QB rotation. Darnold made his return in Sunday’s loss to the Buccaneers and took just under 63% of the snaps.
The organization committed $18.9 million to Darnold in 2022 when it picked up his fifth-year option. The ill-fated decision to trade for him and that cap figure doesn’t mean that they’re locked into him as their starter for 2022, but the Panthers will either have an expensive backup or be forced to eat significant money (or trade away draft picks) if he’s not their guy. Carolina is down second- and fourth-round picks from the Darnold trade and a third-rounder from their move to acquire corner CJ Henderson from the Jags. The team has extra picks in the fourth and fifth rounds, but it would happily take that Darnold trade back if it could.
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Coach Matt Rhule compares Jay-Z’s rise to fame as a way to tell the Panthers that they are building for success.
What the Panthers do have, though, is a young core. A lot of teams would be thrilled to start with DJ Moore, Taylor Moton, Brian Burns, Jeremy Chinn, Jaycee Horn and Christian McCaffrey, although the latter has missed most of the past two seasons with injuries. Haason Reddick has been a Pro Bowl-caliber edge and should be brought back this offseason, possibly via the franchise tag. With the Bucs’ and Falcons’ starting quarterbacks toward the end of their careers and the Saints transitioning from the Drew Brees era, there might be a window for the Panthers to emerge in the NFC South.
Of course, that young core hasn’t been enough to convince quarterbacks that their futures should be in Carolina. Matthew Stafford reportedly didn’t want to be dealt there. It’s unclear whether Russell Wilson would be interested in a move to Charlotte. There’s no clear path for the Panthers to get the sort of true franchise quarterback they’ve craved since David Tepper bought the team. Rhule’s decisions at quarterback and on offense have left a lot to be desired, but unless a new coach can somehow get the Panthers access to a quarterback (such as Wilson) they wouldn’t otherwise have, they’ll probably give the former Baylor coach a third year.
Pros: Young quarterback, patient ownership, cap space Cons: Rotted culture, lack of talent
It might seem weird to list patient ownership as a virtue for the Jaguars given that Jacksonville fired Urban Meyer less than one season into his tenure, but given how embarrassing his behavior, decision-making and on-field product were, you could make the argument that 13 games were more than he deserved. Since Shahid Khan took over as team owner in 2011, the Jaguars have given Meyer less than a season and Mike Mularkey one full year, but Gus Bradley got three-plus years at the helm, while Doug Marrone enjoyed four seasons after being named as permanent coach.
Those four coaches have produced a total of one winning season in 10 tries, which is one of the reasons this job will be difficult. The culture in Jacksonville has been a mess for most of the last decade. Bradley’s positivity and a flood of middle-tier free agents didn’t move the needle, and although the Jags nearly made it to Super Bowl LII during the first year of Tom Coughlin’s reign as lead decision-maker, the authoritarian clashed with many of the young stars on the roster afterward. The only starter left from the 2017 defense is Myles Jack. Meyer’s year in control … well, you saw what happened.
All of this makes what happens next for the Jaguars so important. They need to hire someone who can identify what the organization’s culture needs to be and how to get there. Doing so would seemingly point toward going after a coach with experience in establishing a successful culture elsewhere, but hiring a football czar and program-builder like Coughlin or Meyer hasn’t worked. A younger coach capable of identifying with his players would make sense, but the Jags need someone with experience working in a successful culture who can translate that beyond their current organization.
Coaches will want to come to Jacksonville, of course, because of the presence of Trevor Lawrence. None of the other jobs offer a quarterback anywhere near as promising as the rookie No. 1 overall pick, even if his debut season has been a mess. There has been enough in the way of individual positives, and significant enough coaching malpractice throughout the offense, to suggest that he isn’t the one to blame, though. Coaches typically want to tie their professional futures to a quarterback with All-Pro potential. Lawrence is that guy on this roster.
The problem is that there isn’t much around Lawrence. The first-round picks the Jags have made since landing cornerback Jalen Ramsey in 2016 haven’t been impact contributors. Running back Leonard Fournette was disappointing before being released and joining the Bucs last year. Taven Bryan’s fifth-year option was declined, and the anonymous defensive tackle is likely to leave after 2021. Josh Allen is a solid edge rusher, but cornerback CJ Henderson and pass-rusher K’Lavon Chaisson — both first-round picks in 2020 — have been disasters; Henderson was traded to the Panthers earlier this season, while Chaisson has two sacks in two seasons. Running back Travis Etienne, a teammate of Lawrence’s at Clemson and Jacksonville’s other first-round pick last April, has missed all of his rookie season with a Lisfranc injury.
Etienne will be back for 2022, but James Robinson might not be ready to start next season after tearing his Achilles against the Jets on Sunday. Young players such as Laviska Shenault and Jawaan Taylor have looked worse in their second seasons than they did as rookies. The defense ranks 30th in DVOA and allowed the Jets to run for 273 yards on Sunday. There’s a lot of work to be done here, which has seemingly been the case for most of the past decade. The good news is that the bar for improvement is very, very low.
Pros: Young roster, cap space Cons: Ownership uncertainty, lack of quarterback
It looked like the Broncos were making an unexpected playoff push when they blew out the Lions in Week 14 and made it to 7-6, but narrow losses to the Bengals and Raiders have dropped their playoff chances from 27% to 0.3%, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. The difference between Denver making it as the 7-seed and missing out on the postseason might have been as thin as Teddy Bridgewater suffering a concussion against the Bengals, given that Drew Lock has produced 16 points on the 12 drives he has started since. What’s done is done, though.
As it goes, that might be enough to end Vic Fangio’s tenure as Broncos coach. The former Bears defensive coordinator has developed a number of talented young players during his time in Denver, most notably Justin Simmons and Patrick Surtain, but that hasn’t translated into consistently excellent play. The Broncos rank 21st in DVOA on defense this season, down from 13th-placed finishes in both 2019 and 2020. Fangio’s team will finish with a better record after going 5-11 last season, but with new general manager George Paton finishing his first season with the team, it would hardly be a surprise if he were given the opportunity to hire his own coach.
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Vic Fangio expresses that he is aware of the uncertainty surrounding his job status in Denver but doesn’t let it bother him.
That coach will take over a team crying out for a major upgrade at quarterback. Denver is teeming with talent on offense, especially after locking up Tim Patrick and Courtland Sutton with extensions. Javonte Williams might be the Year 2 breakout back of 2022. Albert Okwuegbunam has emerged as a useful tight end alongside Noah Fant. Jerry Jeudy has flashed while recovering from his high ankle sprain. There’s so much potential here, and while Bridgewater did a better job of moving the ball than Lock, it’s too easy to imagine a scenario in which Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson come in and this offense spikes overnight.
The next coach doesn’t necessarily have to be an offensive mind, but it would help if the Broncos hired someone who might convince Russell Wilson to waive his no-trade clause or push Rodgers to head to Denver. The playmakers on offense will appeal to the various hot offensive coaches who are on the market, but it’s different without a quarterback in the mix. Lock is not viable, and Bridgewater is a free agent.
The other concern with the Broncos is still ownership. It remains to be seen whether the battle between members of the Bowlen family for control of the franchise has been resolved, even after a lawsuit was dismissed in July. There’s still a chance that the team will be sold to a third party, which would create more uncertainty and the possibility that a new owner would want to hire his or her own people to run the organization. If stable ownership and a quarterback were in place, this would be one of the more desirable jobs in the NFL.
Pros: Talent on roster, patient ownership, veteran quarterback Cons: Cap flexibility, veteran quarterback
I’m including veteran quarterback as both a pro and a con as a bit of a joke, but I suspect that Kirk Cousins might be a blessing for some coaches and a hindrance to others. His numbers are surprisingly impressive this season, as he ranks in the top four in passer rating, adjusted net yards per attempt and touchdown-to-interception ratio. I would only be honest in telling you that there aren’t many people in the NFL who perceive him to be that caliber of quarterback, though, and with a $45 million cap hit in 2022, the Vikings will be paying him as if he were an MVP candidate.
If they do decide to move on from longtime coach Mike Zimmer and/or general manager Rick Spielman, the first thing the new regime will have to do is solve the Cousins conundrum. Trading him would free up $35 million in desperately needed cap space, but the move would also leave them with rookie third-round pick Kellen Mond as the starting quarterback.
What follows next seemingly depends on what the Vikings do at quarterback. If they are moving on from Cousins and rebuilding, there are other veterans who don’t need to be along for the ride. They could shop Adam Thielen, Danielle Hunter and Eric Kendricks. Dalvin Cook’s future with the team might be uncertain given the pending lawsuit for alleged assault and battery. If the Vikings are going to blow up the team, they might realistically move forward and head into a serious rebuild.
From another perspective, a new coach might lean into this veteran core. The 7-8 Vikings are still in the playoff mix and have had 14 of their first 15 games decided by eight points or fewer, tying them for the single-season NFL record. Zimmer’s game management hasn’t exactly been the stuff of legend, and a new coach might think improving on special teams and better decision-making could be enough to push them into the postseason in 2022.
If that’s the case, re-signing Cousins would be the move. Doing so would reduce his cap hit, although that would simultaneously come with locking him in as the starting quarterback for two or three more seasons. That alone might be enough to sour some portion of an embittered fanbase on a new coach, although others would put more of the blame on Zimmer’s defense.
Leaving Cousins aside, any new Vikings coach would need to either be a defensive mind or hire someone who can develop young talent on that side of the ball. Zimmer did that for years, but disappointing draft picks and investments on the offensive side of the ball have left them relying on free agents this season. Patrick Peterson, Sheldon Richardson, Everson Griffen and Xavier Woods are all unrestricted after the season, while longtime starter Anthony Barr will see his contract voided.
Either way, the Vikings have a lot to offer a possible new coach. Zimmer is a better coach than some frustrated fans might think, but he has made it eight seasons while winning a total of two playoff games. Coaching candidates will notice that and value the Minnesota job accordingly. The Jags might have Lawrence, but the Vikings have enough on their roster to compete as early as 2022. Unless Zimmer can sweep the Packers and push this team back on a trajectory toward the postseason, coaches might view an opening in Minnesota as the most desirable job on the market.
There is great joy and likewise utter misery in choosing streaming options.
As fantasy managers, we’ve all been there. You get caught short at a position because of injuries, COVID-19, bye weeks, etc. Suddenly you’re scanning the waiver wire looking at projected points and matchups, trying to choose between players you know very little about. In some cases their coaches don’t know how they’ll play either.
Of the running backs who played on Thanksgiving Day, a few were primary streaming options this week. In New Orleans, Tony Jones Jr. figured to play a big role with both Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram unable to go. And while Jones did get 16 carries, a nice volume for a streaming option, which is half the battle, he wasn’t targeted in the passing game and rushed for only 27 yards. And 2.7 fantasy points does not a great streaming option make.
As it turns out, the better streaming option from the Saints was Ty Montgomery. He got six carries and seven targets in the passing game that resulted in five receptions. He mustered only 45 yards, but put it with the receptions in a PPR league and Montgomery was a much better option than Jones.
ESPN fantasy sports researcher Kyle Soppe, who is responsible for our 32 questions, noticed all of the interesting happenings on Thursday, and has questions about Montgomery as well running backs you possibly streamed such as Matt Breida of Buffalo and Tony Pollard of Dallas.
Riding byes this week are Kansas City and Arizona. So questions about the respective West Division leaders will resume next week. Away we go.
AFC EAST
Is Matt Breida’s role in this offense something we should expect to continue to grow?
Yes, but more production doesn’t mean he will be seeing the field as much as a top running back. This version of the Bills’ offense will never have a true No. 1 back, but Breida is certainly seeing an uptick in opportunities and has brought much-needed speed. He has scored at least one touchdown in two of the last three games and is primed to continue to have more opportunities. — Alaina Getzenberg
It has been every other week for Myles Gaskin. After 23 carries on Sunday, can we finally count on him for consecutive good games?
You can count on him for a good workload — and you can work with that in fantasy football. Miami’s win in Week 11 marked Gaskin’s fifth straight game with at least 12 carries and 15 total touches. Even more promising? He has 17 red-zone touches over the past three weeks — 12 of which came inside the 10-yard line. With Malcolm Brown not expected to return this week, Gaskin should be the Dolphins’ unquestioned RB1 yet again. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
If you have to pick one running back from this offense the rest of the way, who would it be?
Damien Harris. While rookie Rhamondre Stevenson is coming on strong, and a case could be made for him to be the choice, Harris is still 1A, and experience tilts the needle in his direction ever so slightly. Rushing touchdowns this season: Harris 7, Stevenson 3. — Mike Reiss
Elijah Moore seems to be coming into his own. Do you expect his growth to continue this season? How good can he be in 2022?
Moore could be the Jets’ WR1 in 2022, ahead of Corey Davis. That’s how much the organization thinks of him. He has 24 receptions, 336 yards and four TDs over the last four games. Don’t be surprised, though, if his production dips temporarily. QB Zach Wilson, who returns from a four-game knee injury, didn’t have much success with Moore early in the year; Davis was his go-to receiver. It may take some time before Wilson and Moore build their chemistry. — Rich Cimini
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Matthew Berry and Field Yates break down Elijah Moore’s emergence as a top-scoring fantasy wide receiver in recent weeks.
AFC NORTH
Safe to label Devonta Freeman as the leader of this backfield for Week 12? For the rest of the season?
Absolutely for Week 12, and most likely for the rest of the season. Freeman has shown the most burst of all the Ravens running backs signed to help fill the void of the injury-filled backfield. It was noticeable when Freeman still received 60% of the running back carries, even after Latavius Murray returned from his ankle injury. Ravens coach John Harbaugh has always talked about going with the hot hand, and Freeman is the hottest of the backs. But, if he slows down, Baltimore could turn to Murray, who is more of an inside-the-tackles runner. — Jamison Hensley
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Field Yates and Matthew Berry break down Devonta Freeman’s recent success in fantasy.
That’s three high-usage games out of four for Tyler Boyd. Do you think he can sustain consistent, albeit low upside, value moving forward?
The Bengals have been very hard to predict. What we believed the offensive philosophy might be this season has shifted and adapted throughout the course of the season. There does seem to be some optimism about Boyd maintaining his current usage rate. Bengals coach Zac Taylor took the blame for Boyd’s two-target outing against Cleveland in Week 9. Bengals QB Joe Burrow called Boyd his comfort blanket, which will always make him a valuable resource. — Ben Baby
D’Ernest Johnson was an afterthought with Nick Chubb back; safe to cut ties with him if the roster spot is needed?
Yes, safe to cut ties with Johnson. Especially with Chubb’s wingman, Kareem Hunt, on the way back from the calf injury. — Jake Trotter
Sunday night was Chase Claypool’s best game in over a month; safe to call him healthy and poised for a strong finish to the season?
He’s healthy, but it’s hard to trust any Steelers receiver’s fantasy output. Ben Roethlisberger likes to spread the ball around, though Diontae Johnson and Claypool are the two he trusts the most. Still, the Steelers utilize Najee Harris in the run game, and Pat Freiermuth has been coming on strong in recent weeks, too. Claypool is worth keeping around on a fantasy team if there’s a bench spot because he could get hot, but it’s too soon to tell just how strong he’ll finish the season. — Brooke Pryor
AFC SOUTH
Brandin Cooks has found producing difficult lately; does it continue, or can he regain his early season form?
Don’t expect Cooks to replicate what he did in the first three weeks — coach David Culley said “it wasn’t intentional” for Cooks to have such a high target share early in the season — but his numbers should be somewhere in the middle. Culley said teams are doubling Cooks way more as the season has gone on, but given the receiver’s chemistry with Tyrod Taylor, his production should increase. — Sarah Barshop
Make your case for Jonathan Taylor as the top overall pick next season.
The numbers don’t lie. Taylor not only leads the NFL in rushing yards (1,122) by nearly 200 yards over the injured Derrick Henry, he leads the entire league in yards from scrimmage (1,444) by more than 300 yards over the next-closest player — Rams receiver Cooper Kupp (1,136) to go with 13 total touchdowns. Enough said. — Mike Wells
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Field Yates and Matthew Berry react to Jonathan Taylor’s five-touchdown performance for the Colts on Sunday.
Do you think James Robinson can take advantage of a favorable upcoming schedule?
That depends on how banged up he is. He’s dealing with heel and knee injuries, and unless the Jaguars shut him down for a couple weeks he’ll have to battle through them every week. You could see in last Sunday’s game against San Francisco that Robinson doesn’t have the same burst through the line of scrimmage that he did before the injury. Another issue for Robinson is the Jaguars are having a hard time consistently moving the ball and are falling behind by double digits, which effectively takes the run game out of play. — Michael DiRocco
Does any Titans running back need to be rostered?
No! Don’t be fooled by how the Titans collectively topped 100 yards rushing last week. That came against a Texans’ defense that was allowing 136 rushing yards per game entering last week. D’Onta Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard have flashed, but they’ll continue to be part of a committee. The stats simply aren’t relevant enough to warrant rostering any Titans back, especially with no one emerging as a candidate to get 15+ carries. — Turron Davenport
AFC WEST
Is Courtland Sutton going to see more looks, or will his low production/usage in games with Jerry Jeudy active continue?
If the Broncos really self-scouted during the bye and stick to what they do best on offense, Sutton’s productivity should increase. But it’s up to the Broncos. If they put quarterback Teddy Bridgewater under center more, use play action more, they will have more success pushing the ball down the field in the passing game. In the win over the Cowboys they had a season-best 190 yards rushing, as well as their only game of the season with multiple completions of more than 40 yards. If they run the ball a little more, the opportunities for Sutton to have impact out of the play action will rise. — Jeff Legwold
Are you buying DeSean Jackson as a weekly upside threat (102 yards, but tied for fifth on the team in targets on Thanksgiving)?
Once on Thanksgiving and twice on Sundays. Jackson was signed to bring that big-play possibility and production, and produce he did at Dallas. The trust is there with QB Derek Carr, who said it was “fun” to throw the soon-to-be 35-year-old wide out the ball. And with another old NFC East rival in Washington up next, that chip on Jackson’s shoulder will only loom larger. — Paul Gutierrez
Are you buying the chunk run plays we saw Sunday night from Justin Herbert as a real part of his game moving forward?
Not necessarily, but it worked well in this instance and his sliding game was on point. If the gaps are there and the defense is giving it to him, he proved what an asset his wheels are. But little of that was by design. — Shelley Smith
NFC EAST
Give us your best guess for average touches per game moving forward for Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard.
If the Cowboys were in a 60-40 split between Elliott and Pollard for a good spell earlier in the season, it will now be closer to 50-50. But don’t confuse this with any ineffectiveness from Elliott. He is dealing with a bone bruise in his knee that is limiting him. He is trying to play through it, and the Cowboys are managing his workload if not so much his snap count. With a longer break after next Thursday’s game vs. the Saints, the Cowboys hope that will serve as a mini-bye for Elliott. The running game as a whole, however, needs to improve. Aside from a 31-yard run vs. the Chiefs, Pollard’s yard per carry average is not much different than Elliott’s. — Todd Archer
What are your weekly touch expectations moving forward for Saquon Barkley on a 3-7 team?
Barkley played 32 snaps (59.3%) and had 12 touches in Tampa Bay following a six-week absence. It would have been more if it wasn’t a blowout in the fourth quarter. Barkley should creep closer to 20 touches and 75% of the snaps on Sunday in Philadelphia. Expect his role to increase only as he gets healthier. It should mean for some big games. — Jordan Raanan
play
2:34
Field Yates, Stephania Bell and Matthew Berry react to Saquon Barkley’s performance in the Giants’ loss to the Buccaneers.
The backfield rotation seemed to vary by quarter. Do you expect any RB to earn the feature role, or is this a committee that will be more of a headache than anything?
Miles Sanders is the starter when healthy and will get the bulk of the snaps, but Jordan Howard has earned a role and could siphon a lot of the touchdowns given his effectiveness as a short-yardage back. Howard is expected to be out at least this week because of injury. However, Boston Scott could be featured given his success against the Giants in the past (222 rush yards, 5 TDs in 4 games). — Tim McManus
Antonio Gibson looked like “the guy” in Week 10, not so much in Week 11. Moving forward, can we count on him for 15 touches a game, or is it going to vary weekly?
Actually, he looked a lot like “The Guy” in Week 11 — in the second half, that is. That’s when he gained 76 of his 95 yards, following a three-series benching at the end of the first half after he had fumbled. The fumbling issues will be worth watching down the stretch; he has fumbled five times this season, losing three. If it continues to happen, beware. Short of that, yes you can expect 15 touches a game — provided his shin holds up. They like how Gibson is running – more physical, pressing the hole better. They’ve found an offensive identity and it centers around their run game. The other backs — J.D. McKissic and Jaret Patterson — have shown they can be effective. But Gibson remains the primary focus. — John Keim
NFC NORTH
Cole Kmet’s role is on the rise: Can we count on him weekly to produce viable numbers?
I think so. Kmet is a viable member of the offense who is a proven pass-catcher. Unfortunately, he often got lost in the shuffle earlier in the season because the Bears were such a mess on offense. Kmet, however, has emerged over the past couple of weeks and I see no reason for that to change. To clarify, he isn’t going to put up eye-popping statistics. But viable numbers? Absolutely. — Jeff Dickerson
How many touches should we expect from Jamaal Williams if D’Andre Swift were to miss time?
On average, even with Swift, Williams is already seeing a little over 12 touches per game. On Thanksgiving, he got 15 carries for 65 yards with another five receptions for 18 yards, so that would be around the number I would expect him to see if Swift were to remain out. Although he’s not as gifted as Swift, he has proven that he’s more than capable of carrying that load as a dual threat, if necessary. — Eric Woodyard
Anything to the heavy Marquez Valdes-Scantling usage against the Vikings, or was it simply a one-week matchup thing?
Allen Lazard’s absence due to a shoulder injury helped get him more in the plan. Also, MVS’ hamstring injury finally appears to be completely healed. He could have trouble this week, though, because all the injuries on the offensive line might force Aaron Rodgers to get the ball out much faster, which means fewer deep-ball chances for MVS. — Rob Demovsky
Minnesota’s final four games of the season: Bears (twice), Packers and Rams. Can Kirk Cousins be a top-10 QB over that valuable stretch?
Yes. Cousins ranks top 10 in all the major passing categories (passer rating, QBR, completion percentage, yards, touchdowns) and his 21-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio is insanely good. Mike Zimmer wants his quarterback to keep “going for the jugular” despite throwing two near-interceptions versus Green Bay, and if Cousins can keep the Vikings’ offense humming with this new-found aggressive attitude (PFF has him ranked fourth in expected points added), Minnesota should fare well against two bottom-half defenses in Chicago and Detroit. — Courtney Cronin
NFC SOUTH
Would the return of Calvin Ridley help Kyle Pitts, or would it further hurt his upside by taking targets off his plate?
A return of Calvin Ridley — which is anything but certain as Arthur Smith had no update Monday even though Ridley is now eligible to return off the NFI list — would be beneficial to Kyle Pitts. While it might shrink his target share, it would give Atlanta three players defenses must account for every play — Pitts, Cordarrelle Patterson and Ridley. That alone could leave Pitts in some single-coverage situations, which might lead to more breakout plays. Right now, Pitts is the main target for defenses in the intermediate and deep passing game, and it has shown in his — and Atlanta’s — production. — Michael Rothstein
Is Cam Newton back to being a viable option?
Well, he had two touchdowns on only eight plays in his first outing, and he followed that with two touchdown passes and one rushing touchdown in his first full game. So YES. He’s a viable option. The more he learns this offense the more dangerous he should be. — David Newton
play
1:40
Matthew Berry explains why he thinks Cam Newton is a borderline QB1 as long as he has the starting job in Carolina.
Can Ty Montgomery work into a weekly role if at least one of Alvin Kamara/Mark Ingram is injured?
No, I think he would need both to be sidelined to make a significant fantasy impact, and I expect one or both to be back next week. But if they do both remain out, Thursday night was a reminder that Montgomery might be just as valuable as Tony Jones Jr. in PPR leagues. And the seven-year vet does deserve credit for being a reliable emergency option at both RB and WR. Remember, he ran for 105 yards in Week 17 last year when the rest of the RB room was wiped out by COVID. — Mike Triplett
Leonard Fournette has impressed as a pass-catcher all season, but his usage is peaking. Can he sustain 6-8 targets per game moving forward?
As long as opposing defenses are hell-bent on stopping the big play downfield — which they have been all year — we’ll continue to see more of Fournette in the short passing game as he’s who Brady trusts the most in the Bucs’ running back room. — Jenna Laine
NFC WEST
The second most productive pass catcher in this offense moving forward will be …
Van Jefferson. Prior to Odell Beckham Jr.’s signing and the season-ending knee injury to Robert Woods, quarterback Matthew Stafford had been looking more often to target the second-year pro and the two have connected on short, intermediate and deep throws. Watch for Stafford to continue to connect with Jefferson, who can be depended on to run crisp routes and hang onto the football. — Lindsey Thiry
A great season for Deebo Samuel is getting better with his usage in the backfield. Can we count on that continuing?
Yes. Here’s the thing, Elijah Mitchell has earned the right to be the team’s primary ball carrier when healthy, but he has struggled to do that. And the Niners love racking up the rushing attempts, so it only stands to reason they’ll keep handing it to Samuel as part of that plan. If nothing else, it’s a guaranteed way to get the ball in the hands of their best player, and that’s always a good thing. — Nick Wagoner
Is there a single player in this offense we can trust right now?
Nope. They’ve scored a combined 13 points in the last two games because Russell Wilson and their passing game have been so off. Wilson continues to say his surgically repaired finger is fine, and his resume over the last decade suggests he’ll snap out of his funk eventually. But who knows when? The closest thing the Seahawks have to a reliable fantasy play right now is Alex Collins, who figures to remain their primary back. But barely getting double-digit touches each week means his ceiling is limited. — Brady Henderson
2013 FSTA award winner for most accurate preseason rankings
Welcome to the Week 11 Fantasy Football Playbook!
This will be your game-by-game guide to the week’s slate of NFL games, featuring score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for both season-long and DFS leagues. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for borderline starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in both raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to possible updates during the weekend, though at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Jonathan Taylor, Stefon Diggs
Carson Wentz has delivered four top-12 fantasy weeks over his last six games, but he’s fresh off a Week 10 dud and will now face a dominant Buffalo defense. He belongs on benches.
Matt Breida exploded for a pair of touchdowns in Week 10, but note that he only played on eight snaps, compared to 25 for Zack Moss and 21 for Devin Singletary. The Buffalo backfield is one to avoid if possible, but Moss remains the preferred flex. Nyheim Hines crashed back to earth last week with his sixth finish in his last seven games outside the top-45 fantasy running backs. He’s a deep-league PPR flex.
You’d be hard-pressed to bench Michael Pittman Jr. (fantasy’s No. 7-scoring WR), but the young wide receiver has a brutal matchup against Tre’Davious White and the Bills this week, so lower your expectations. Cole Beasley’s health limited him to just nine snaps last week, so he’s been downgraded to flex territory for now. Emmanuel Sanders hasn’t had any top-30 fantasy outings since Week 6, but he has a good matchup and is on the WR3 radar this week. Colts’ secondary receivers T.Y. Hilton and Zach Pascal should both be avoided in this matchup.
Dawson Knox returned from injury to play on 45 of 54 snaps last week and, although he was limited to just one target, he remains a good TD candidate, he remains in the TE1 discussion.
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Marquise Brown, Mark Andrews
Justin Fields delivered a pair of top-10 fantasy outings prior to Chicago’s bye. That provides some optimism that a breakout is underway, but he’s still too risky to consider for your lineups in most formats.
David Montgomery played on 49 of 58 snaps in his Week 9 return and is right back in the every-week RB2 mix. Latavius Murray is expected back from injury this week, but he’ll continue to defer significant touches to both Devonta Freeman and Ty’Son Williams. Note that Le’Veon Bell was released this week. Murray and Freeman are underwhelming deep-league flex options.
Darnell Mooney’s hefty target share helped him to three top-30 fantasy weeks in the four games prior to Chicago’s bye. Allen Robinson II is still without any top-30 fantasy weeks this season, but he did post a season-high 11 fantasy points in his last outing. With Fields adding some life to the Chicago offense, Mooney and Robinson are both back on the WR3/flex radar. Rashod Bateman posted a career-high 14 fantasy points despite the return of Sammy Watkins last week, so the impressive rookie receiver makes for a fine WR3/flex.
When we last saw him in Week 9, Cole Kmet was targeted a season-high eight times and put up a career-high 87 yards. The second-year tight end is trending up, but remains out of the TE1 conversation for now.
Baker Mayfield left Week 10’s action early with an injury, but he’s not a fantasy option even if he plays, having managed only one top-10 fantasy outing this season. It’s a similar sentiment for Jared Goff (also questionable), who hasn’t had any weekly finish better than 20th since Week 2. If Goff is out, Tim Boyle should also be avoided in what would be his first NFL start.
D’Ernest Johnson has done an admirable job when called upon to start this season, but he was limited to only 12 fantasy points with Chubb on the field during Weeks 8-9. Johnson is no more than a deep-league flex option, even though this is a good matchup. Swift is Detroit’s clear lead back, so Jamaal Williams shouldn’t be in lineups if he returns from injury this week.
Jarvis Landry hasn’t cleared 10 points in his four games since returning from injury, but he’s a “squeaky wheel” and perhaps could see a boost in targets this week. He’s on the WR3 radar as Mayfield’s top downfield option. Donovan Peoples-Jones crashed back to earth last week — a reminder of his low-target, boom/bust role. He’s also questionable this week and is best avoided. Top Detroit receivers Kalif Raymond and Amon-Ra St. Brown have combined for only two top-30 fantasy weeks this season.
T.J. Hockenson put up the dreaded goose egg in Week 10, but he had managed to produce three consecutive top-12 outings before that clunker. He remains a mid-range TE1.
Ryan Tannehill has three top-12 fantasy outings during his last four games and is one of your top streaming options this week. Tyrod Taylor opened the season with a pair of 16-plus point fantasy efforts, but he struggled in his return from injury last week and can’t be trusted in lineups just yet.
The second week of the post-Derrick Henry Titans backfield saw D’Onta Foreman (11 carries, two targets on 21 snaps) take control of things, with Adrian Peterson (eight carries, one target on 19 snaps) and Jeremy McNichols (four carries, three targets on 15 snaps) also plenty involved. Foreman is the preferred flex option here, but all three are risky as Tennessee continues to sort out the touches. Houston has added Royce Freeman to its four-man RB rotation and all four make for poor fantasy options.
Geoff Swaim — yes, Geoff Swaim! — now has four catches in three straight games. He also scored a touchdown in two of those outings. He’s a name to consider starting in 2-TE leagues.
Lineup locks: Dalvin Cook, Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen
Aaron Rodgers has now posted consecutive fantasy finishes of 14th or worse, but this comes after a six-game streak of 19-plus point outings. He’s best-viewed as a fringe QB1 against a Minnesota defense that has been respectable against quarterbacks this season. Kirk Cousins has six top-12 fantasy finishes this season, but also three finishes of 19th or worse. He’s a name to try to avoid against a red-hot Packers’ pass defense.
Aaron Jones will miss a week or two, which positions AJ Dillon as Green Bay’s feature back. Dillon, who put up 128 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 23 touches last week, will only need to fend off Patrick Taylor and perhaps Ryquell Armstead for touches. A featured role locks him into the RB1 mix.
With the expected exception of Adams, none of Green Bay’s wide receivers saw more than four targets last week. They should all be avoided.
Make it four straight games with 9.5-plus fantasy points for Tyler Conklin. With an average of 11.6 fantasy points during this span, he’s a fringe TE1 play this week.
Tua Tagovailoa has reeled off four top-15 fantasy weeks in a row (despite not starting last week) and is a fine streamer this week against the struggling Jets. Joe Flacco will start ahead of the ineffective Mike White and the injured Zach Wilson, but shouldn’t be close to lineups.
The Jets’ run defense has been unbelievably poor and has allowed a whopping 13 running backs to reach 15 fantasy points this season. Myles Gaskin’s production has been all over the map, but he’s a strong candidate for his fourth top-15 fantasy outing in seven weeks. Michael Carter is fresh off his third top-15 fantasy outing in his last four games and makes for a fine RB2.
Jaylen Waddle is averaging 9.4 targets per game over his last five outings and will be in the WR2 discussion for as long as both DeVante Parker and William Fuller V remain out. Corey Davis has four top-30 fantasy outings in seven games this season and is a viable WR3 against Miami’s struggling pass defense. Elijah Moore has reeled off three straight finishes of 26th or better and has seen six-plus targets in 6 of 8 games this season. He’s risky with the QB change, but nonetheless the preferred flex option over teammate Jamison Crowder.
DFS Alert: Tagovailoa ($5,500) checks in as a terrific value at DraftKings this week. The second-year quarterback is priced 15th out of the 24 projected starters on the slate, despite sitting sixth in fantasy points during his four full games this season. Tagovailoa has thrown seven touchdowns and has added three on the ground in 4.5 games. Despite the missed action, he has as many top-15 fantasy finishes this season (4) as Tannehill, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow. The key this week is the matchup, as the Jets have allowed the second-most passing yards this season. New York has allowed seven quarterbacks to reach 19-plus fantasy points in nine games.
Trevor Siemian has thrown two touchdowns in consecutive games, but he adds nothing with his legs and Taysom Hill continues to be mixed in. He’s not a viable QB1.
Boston Scott and Jordan Howard each delivered a pair of top-25 fantasy weeks while Miles Sanders was out, but with the team’s lead back potentially ready to return this week, things are a bit foggy. The suddenly run-heavy Eagles have four options in the backfield (including rookie Kenneth Gainwell) and it’s yet to be seen how the touches will be distributed. Sanders will be the safest flex if he’s back, but he’s not the most enticing play against a Saints defense allowing the third-fewest RB fantasy points and easily the lowest RB yards per carry (2.8) this season. If Sanders remains out, Scott will be the slightly-preferred flex over Howard.
DeVonta Smith has delivered exactly 22.6 fantasy points in consecutive games. He’s shown some inconsistency this season but his recent surge, coupled with a healthy target share, keeps the rookie in the WR3 mix. Marquez Callaway has four top-35 fantasy weeks this season, but he and his fellow Saints receivers have a very tough matchup against the Eagles’ terrific pass defense.
Dallas Goedert (concussion) is questionable this week, but he’ll be a TE1 option if active. If not, this a situation to avoid, as New Orleans hasn’t allowed a single tight end to reach double-digit fantasy points this season.
Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, DJ Moore, Terry McLaurin
Cam Newton is back and, after scoring two touchdowns off the bench last week, he’ll make his first start of 2021 in Week 11. When we last saw Newton in a full-time role (with New England in 2020), he posted a 137-592-12 rushing line and was fantasy scoring’s QB15. There’s risk here as he gets up to speed with Matt Rhule’s offense, but Newton’s legs push him into the QB2 mix right out of the gate. Meanwhile, Taylor Heinicke has delivered five top-12 fantasy weeks this season, but Carolina’s solid passing defense makes him a poor streaming option.
Antonio Gibson came out of the bye week on fire, with 78 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 26 touches against a very good Buccaneers’ run defense. Gibson is still lacking much passing-game involvement, but his rushing volume keeps him in the RB2 mix. J.D. McKissic remains game-script dependent, but his 11.0 fantasy PPG keep him in the flex discussion.
Newton found Robby Anderson for a touchdown last week. That’s a nice sign of life and perhaps Anderson will leap back to the WR3 mix, but we need to be cautious considering that Week 10 marked his first weekly finish better than 40th this season.
Ricky Seals-Jones (hip) will be a borderline starting TE option if he’s able to play this week with Logan Thomas still out. If Seals-Jones sits, this is a situation to avoid.
DFS Alert: McCaffrey checks in at $8,900 at DraftKings this week, which isn’t cheap, but is also too low for a player of his caliber. In four full games this season, McCaffrey is fantasy’s clear RB1. He’s now scored at least 23 fantasy points in 19 of his last 22 games, averaging 27.8 PPG during this span. He only played on 59% of Carolina’s snaps last week (his second game back from injury), but still racked up 13 carries and 10 targets. McCaffrey has a decent matchup this week, as Washington has allowed the third-fewest yards and fourth-most touchdowns (12) to running backs this season. Cordarrelle Patterson, Darrel Williams, Melvin Gordon III, Leonard Fournette, Moss and Kamara all reached 17 fantasy points against Washington.
Lineup locks: James Robinson, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle
Jimmy Garoppolo has reeled off three top-12 fantasy weeks in a row, but he’s yet to clear two touchdowns in any game and, aside of a random trio of touchdowns earlier this season, remains all but a non-factor with his legs. He’s best left on benches. The same goes for Trevor Lawrence, who hasn’t posted a weekly finish better than 20th since returning from his Week 7 bye.
Elijah Mitchell (finger) will be on the RB2 radar if he’s able to play this week, although Jacksonville’s run defense has been better you may realize with just 3.7 YPC and 4.8 YPT allowed to running backs. If Mitchell is out, Jeff Wilson Jr. will leap into the flex discussion with JaMycal Hasty also sidelined.
Brandon Aiyuk has cleared a 20% target share in three straight games and is back in the weekly WR3 discussion. Marvin Jones Jr. is your top flex option among Jacksonville’s wide receivers, but he hasn’t had any top-50 fantasy outings since Week 6, so this is a situation to avoid if you can.
DFS Alert: Dan Arnold ($4,100) easily leads the Jaguars with 25 targets over the last three weeks and, for the second consecutive week, is the TE value play at DraftKings. Only Travis Kelce has more targets than Arnold during the last five weeks — a run that has translated to 10-plus fantasy points for Arnold in four of those five games. Arnold sits fifth in fantasy points during this stretch, despite failing to score any touchdowns. The 49ers haven’t allowed much to tight ends this season, but the schedule has been very light. The best one they faced was easily Hockenson, and he posted an 8-97-1 line against San Francisco.
Lineup locks: Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase, Darren Waller
Burrow posted four top-12 fantasy weeks during his last six games prior to the Bengals’ Week 10 bye. Cincinnati’s highly-productive passing game keeps the second-year passer in the QB1 mix. Derek Carr has five top-10 fantasy outings this season, but also three finishes of 20th or worse over his last six games. He’s a fringe QB1.
Josh Jacobs posted a rare dud last week and he’s now finished no lower than 21st at the RB position in 5 of 7 games this season. He’s a solid RB2 against a Bengals defense allowing the fifth-most RB fantasy points. Kenyan Drake is on the flex radar, as he plays a role in the passing game and the Bengals have allowed both the most targets and receptions to running backs this season.
The Raiders have been very good at slowing wide receivers this season to the tune of the sixth-fewest WR fantasy points allowed. That said, Tee Higgins’ heavy volume has allowed him to post three top-25 fantasy weeks in a row. He’s still a WR2 option. Hunter Renfrow has reached double-digit fantasy points in all but one game this season and has had two of his best three games over the last two weeks. The slot man is a fine WR3. Tyler Boyd’s last five games have netted only one top-40 fantasy week. He makes for an underwhelming flex option in a tough matchup against Nate Hobbs. Bryan Edwards exploded for 88 yards and a score last week, but he’s yet to clear six targets in any game of his career and has seen exactly four looks in four straight games.
C.J. Uzomah is a TD-dependent option on the TE1 borderline, but he does have a good matchup against a Raiders defense allowing the second-most fantasy points, receptions and yards to tight ends.
Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, Travis Kelce
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is expected back from injury this week after missing five games. Williams has shown well in his place and it’s possible he’ll maintain a significant role, but Edwards-Helaire was the clear No. 1 back before his injury and had put up 17-plus fantasy points in consecutive games before getting hurt. Both should be viewed as flex options for now. Williams would leap back into fringe RB1 territory if Edwards-Helaire remains out.
For Dallas, Tony Pollard has only two weekly finishes better than 25th this season and isn’t a strong flex play. Michael Gallup was targeted on five of his 40 snaps in his return from injury last week and has quickly rejoined the flex conversation. Dalton Schultz matched a season-low with just two targets last week, but he had at least five in each of his previous six games. He remains on the TE1 radar.
DFS Alert: Hill ($8,200) is one of the pricier options on DraftKings this week, but he’s well worth the cost. The explosive receiver is currently second in WR fantasy points and has five top-10 outings under his belt. He’s averaging a career-high 28% target share and has seen nine-plus targets in seven straight games. The matchup against Dallas is super intriguing as the Cowboys have been in Man-1 on an NFL-high 50.3% of coverage snaps this season. Hill has five 30-plus yard catches this season and four were against man coverage, with three coming against Man-1. Additionally, seven of his eight touchdowns have come against man coverage. Dallas is allowing 14.7 yards per WR reception (second highest) and seven receivers have reached 19 fantasy points against them.
Kyler Murray has missed Arizona’s last two games due to injury, but he’ll be right back in the QB1 mix if he’s active this week. If he’s out, replacement options Colt McCoy and Chris Streveler should both be avoided.
Chris Carson will be a RB2 play if he returns from a neck injury this week. If he remains out, Travis Homer (30 snaps last week) and Alex Collins (29) will share duties. Neither makes for a strong fantasy option, although Collins would be the preferred flex choice.
DeAndre Hopkins has missed Arizona’s last two games, but he’ll be a lineup lock if he’s active. Christian Kirk is up to WR20 in fantasy points. His value depends on the status of both Murray and Hopkins, but he’s safest valued as a WR3. A.J. Green would get a boost to flex territory if Hopkins is out, but note that the veteran receiver has reached 10 fantasy points only once in his last five games. It’s a similar story for Rondale Moore, who hasn’t reached double-digit fantasy points since Week 5 and should only be considered for a flex spot if Hopkins remains out.
Zach Ertz is averaging 5.0 targets per game since joining Arizona but hasn’t hit 10 fantasy points since his team debut in Week 7. He’s not an automatic play by any means. Gerald Everett (questionable) saw eight targets last week, which was nearly half of his season total (18) entering the week. He’s a name to monitor, but not yet a viable TE1.
Lineup locks: Najee Harris, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Diontae Johnson
Herbert is fantasy’s No. 7-scoring quarterback, but that’s largely thanks to his three top-two fantasy outings. Strangely, he no other weekly finishes better than 12th this season. The good news is that his struggles have come against man coverage, but he’s done most of his damage against zone and specifically Cover 3. The Steelers operate a zone-heavy defense and lean primarily on — you guessed it — Cover 3. Herbert is a QB1. Meanwhile, Ben Roethlisberger (COVID-19) could be back this week, but Mason Rudolph was fantasy’s QB13 last week in his place — and that was the best finish by any Steelers quarterback this season. Neither should be in lineups.
Mike Williams’ last top-40 fantasy outing was way back in Week 5. He averaged 10.2 targets per game during his first five games, but hasn’t cleared six targets in any of his last four games. Williams has fallen to WR3 territory. Chase Claypool (toe) missed Week 10 and hasn’t managed any top-35 fantasy outings since Week 5. Still, he sees enough volume in a passing-friendly offense to keep him in the WR3 mix.
Pat Freiermuth saw a career-high nine targets last week and has three top-10 fantasy outings in his last four games. He’s a TE1 for now. Jared Cook has been under five targets in four of his last five games and has fallen out of the starting TE mix.
Lineup locks: Tom Brady, Leonard Fournette, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans
Daniel Jones returns from his bye week having gone five straight games without a top-12 fantasy outing. He belongs on benches against Tampa Bay.
Saquon Barkley is back from an ankle injury and immediately leaps into must-start territory. Barkley had posted back-to-back top-10 fantasy weeks before the injury, but is best-viewed as a RB2 this week against the Buccaneers’ strong run defense.
New York will have Kenny Golladay, Darius Slayton and Kadarius Toney at wide receiver this week, whereas Sterling Shepard (quad) is questionable. Shepard has been a top-20 fantasy wide receiver in all three of his full games this season, so if he’s active, then he and Golladay are the best WR3/flex plays from the group. If Shepard remains out, Golladay, Toney and Slayton all get a boost.
Evan Engram rattled off a pair of top-10 fantasy weeks prior to the bye (his best finishes of the season). He’s a borderline starter in Week 11. Rob Gronkowski is expected back this week and immediately rejoins the TE1 mix after opening the season with a pair of 2-TD games.
Mac Jones is on the rise and has a pair of top-eight fantasy showings over the past month, but note that he has no other finishes better than 17th this season. It’s a good matchup as Atlanta has allowed the third-most QB fantasy points and touchdowns, but Jones hasn’t done enough to warrant serious QB1 consideration. The same goes for Matt Ryan, who has two top-10 fantasy weeks this season, but also two finishes outside of the top 30 over the past three weeks. He should be benched against a New England defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy QB points (and more than 17 fantasy points to the position only twice).
Damien Harris (concussion) was out last week, but he had 14-plus carries and 10-plus fantasy points in five straight games before getting hurt. He lacks upside, with one weekly finish better than 15th, because of a minimal passing-game role and it’s possible he’ll lose work to impressive rookie Rhamondre Stevenson. Stevenson filled in for Harris with a 20-100-2 rushing line last week. Stevenson has 13-plus fantasy points in three of his past four games and will be a solid RB2 if Harris is out — and still on the flex radar if Harris plays. The two backs are set up with a terrific matchup against a Falcons defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to running backs.
Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle) is questionable, which is the only reason fantasy’s RB9 is not listed as a lineup lock. If he’s out, Mike Davis (four carries, one target on 20 snaps last week) and Wayne Gallman (15 carries, two targets on 22 snaps last week) figure to split backfield duties. Though he did get some early run, most of Gallman’s Week 10 carries came in the second half of a blowout loss, so Davis (10-plus fantasy points in 6 of 9 games this season) would be the better RB2/flex play.
Jakobi Meyers finally caught his first NFL touchdown last week, but the reliable slot receiver has a total of just seven targets over his past two games and only three weekly finishes better than 35th this season. He’s a WR3/flex. Kendrick Bourne scored a career-high 24 fantasy points and reached 100 scrimmage yards for the first time in his career last week, but the journeyman has seen four or fewer targets in 7 of 10 games this season. He’s a bit of a boom/bust deep-league flex. Atlanta’s wide receivers can’t be trusted, as their No. 1 option, Russell Gage, has posted a pair of zero-point efforts over the past three weeks. That’s especially the case against a Patriots’ passing defense that has allowed an NFL-low 109 WR receptions this season.
Kyle Pitts’ last top-10 fantasy outing was in Week 7 and he has been held under 10 fantasy points in 6 of 9 games this season. He’s also facing a tough matchup against a Patriots defense that has allowed the fewest receptions and yards, and the second-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Pitts’ huge target share keeps him in the TE1 mix, but a dud is very possible. Hunter Henry has scored seven touchdowns in his past seven games, but he’s also seen a maximum of four targets in his past five games. You’re betting on a touchdown if you put him in your lineup.
We’re seven weeks into the 2021 NFL season, and the first-year cornerbacks continue to flex their collective muscles. Three of them make the second edition of our rookie rankings. And while our top 10 has some movement, once again only one quarterback made the cut. It’s actually a pass-catcher atop the board here, as the Bengals’ Ja’Marr Chase has launched himself to the head of the class as the season’s halfway point approaches. That shouldn’t surprise anyone — he’s setting records for rookie receivers and seems to have a deep-ball TD every week.
To build the list, we polled some personnel executives around the league and worked our way through the game tape. We also include who just missed the list and a few other names to keep handy in the coming weeks. Finally, we looked to ESPN Stats & Information’s Seth Walder to name an under-the-radar rookie to keep an eye on and ESPN Chalk’s Doug Kezirian to provide the best value bets for Rookie of the Year.
So who are the top rookies in the NFL right now, and why are they excelling? Let’s cut to the Chase, pun intended.
Jump to: Top 10 | Just missed | Notes Under the radar | Value bets
Where to start? The 21-year-old leads the league in yards per catch (21.5), has three 100-yard games — including a 200-yard outing — and has the most receiving yards through seven career games in NFL history (754). Watch his routes and how he sets up more experienced defenders — add the Ravens’ Marlon Humphrey to what will be a growing list — and it’s clear this is a dynamic player who is going to require defenses to make a plan for him every weekend. And that means going beyond just putting their best cover player on him most of the time.
Lists like these are often about degree of difficulty, and Slater checks that box pretty rigorously. He has already faced the likes of Chase Young, Maxx Crosby and Myles Garrett in his first six starts. Garrett did overpower Slater for a sack in Week 5 — though he may have gotten away with a hands-to-the-face penalty on the play — but body of work is always what matters most, and Slater’s body of work thus far is top shelf.
His versatility and the Cowboys’ need to change his job description at the earliest stages of his NFL career will impact how some may see Parsons’ success. The bottom line: He has made an impact at defensive end when the team needed him to play there — he has 10 quarterback hits — and he has shown the ability to work in coverage at linebacker, as well as hold his gap at the point of attack in the run game. Parsons leads all rookies in pass rush win rate at 26.2%.
Surtain has played 86% of the team’s defensive snaps, been tasked with a handful of WR1s and played with such competitiveness from down to down that when Ronald Darby came off injured reserve, it was veteran Kyle Fuller who went to the bench. Surtain does need to clean up some of his tackling in the run game, but opposing quarterbacks have consistently been frustrated far more often than not when they’ve tried to test him.
Owusu-Koramoah may have difficulty holding on to this spot, given he went to injured reserve (ankle) on Oct. 18, missed the Browns’ Week 7 win over the Broncos and is expected to miss several weeks. But just before his injury, which happened on Oct. 17 against the Cardinals, he had played 91% and 85% of the defensive snaps in his prior two games, as he consistently showed top-end play speed to the point of attack with quality work in coverage.
Jones has faced the highest degree of difficulty among the top 10 and showed the resolve to bounce back from his three-interception day in Week 3 against the Saints for seven touchdown passes and three interceptions over the next four games. He also got his first career 300-yard game in a blowout win over the Jets this past weekend. The game tape shows a little more progress each week in protecting himself in the pocket — especially against the unnecessary sack — and taking care of the ball.
Like one of his mentors — Broncos coach Vic Fangio — Chargers coach Brandon Staley wants competitive cornerbacks who can tackle and play with discipline in a variety of coverages. Samuel has been reliable much of the time and has shown the versatility to play in the slot or outside, depending on what is needed of him.
The Chiefs have a growing pile of trouble in some places on the depth chart, but Humphrey is not on that list. He has played with composure and keeps his footwork clean. The game film shows he has allowed just one sack in pass protection, and ESPN’s metrics (via NFL Next Gen Stats) have him with just six pass-block losses on the season overall.
Personnel evaluators around the league expected Pitts to find his footing as the season moved toward the halfway mark. Consider it found. He has two 100-yard games over the past two weeks and a wide receiver-worthy 15.2 yards per catch on the season.
Stats: 32 tackles Drafted: No. 167 overall
The former Illini defensive back finds his way into this spot because of the Raiders’ expanding portfolio for him in recent weeks and his ability to consistently have an impact in each of those roles. Hobbs has five starts, has played at least 50% of the defensive snaps in every game — including a season-high 93% in the Raiders’ Week 7 win over the Eagles — and has just one missed tackle on the year.
Just missed
Azeez Ojulari, LB, New York Giants
The second-round pick’s 5.5 sacks lead all rookies, including the 2.5 he had against the Panthers this past Sunday. He has added some counters in his pass-rush work, and the more he progresses there, the more sack-happy games he will have. His 14.0% pass rush win rate is second among rookies to Dallas’ Parsons.
Penei Sewell, OT, Detroit Lions
His potential is still clear, but the move to left tackle to replace the injured Taylor Decker has impacted Sewell’s quality of play overall, as he fights his way along the learning curve. After a choppy two-game stretch against Minnesota and Chicago, when he allowed four sacks, he rebounded with high-quality efforts against the Bengals and Rams.
Greg Newsome II, CB, Cleveland Browns
Newsome missed two games with a calf injury — Weeks 4 and 5 — and played just 21 of the team’s defensive snaps in Week 6. But he got the start and played all 50 defensive snaps against the Broncos this past Thursday. His play shows an attention to detail, and he has been flagged just once this season.
Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos
Williams, who has 320 rushing yards this season, is a broken-tackle festival waiting to happen. We saw it recently against the Ravens, when six different Baltimore players tried to tackle Williams before he eventually was pulled to the ground. He has shown potential in the passing game, as well, with 122 yards on 20 catches. The only quibble is on those rare occasions when he doesn’t show his customary decisiveness.
Eric Stokes, CB, Green Bay Packers
Stokes has played every defensive snap in four of the Packers’ past five games. He has been flagged three times this season — all for pass interference — but all three were in his first two starts. Stokes has an interception and eight passes defended.
Keep an eye on: Osa Odighizuwa, DT, Dallas Cowboys; Rondale Moore, WR, Arizona Cardinals; Spencer Brown, OT, Buffalo Bills; Trey Smith, G, Kansas City Chiefs; Odafe Oweh, DE/LB, Baltimore Ravens; Kadarius Toney, WR, New York Giants; Sam Cosmi, OT, Washington Football Team; Pete Werner, LB, New Orleans Saints; Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers; Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars; Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers; DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles; Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, LB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers; Greg Rousseau, DE, Buffalo Bills
Other rookie notes
Let’s just plan on a Ja’Marr Chase note in each edition of these rankings, as he is already getting folks to page through the record books. His 200-yard game this past Sunday was just the 17th by a rookie receiver. And with his high target volume and big-play ability, it’s likely a good time to remind people of Jerry Butler’s rookie single-game record of 255 yards in 1979. While Chase put up his 200-yard effort in his seventh career game, Butler did it in his fourth career game. And oddly, Butler did not have another game with more than 140 receiving yards in his 88-game career.
Packers rookie center Josh Myers, a second-round pick, was on the fast track up the rankings. He had played every snap in Green Bay’s first four games and replaced former All Pro center Corey Linsley, who signed with the Chargers in free agency. But Myers missed a game with a finger injury and then suffered a knee injury in Week 6 against Chicago, sending him to injured reserve.
Buffalo Bills rookie tackle Spencer Brown, an Iowa native, had joked he watched the Chiefs-Bills AFC Championship Game in his basement last January and then 10 months later he made his second NFL start in Arrowhead in the Bills’ 38-20 win in Week 5. Keep an eye on Brown, a third-round pick this past April who played eight-man football in Lenox, Iowa, in high school. He has shown he’s ready for the job on a Super Bowl-hopeful team after he was moved into the lineup at right tackle when the Bills shuffled their starters and Daryl Williams was moved inside to guard.
Walder’s under-the-radar rookie
Trey Smith, G, Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs crushed the offensive line portion of their draft; not only did they get the aforementioned Humphrey late in the second round, but they also nabbed Smith in the sixth out of Tennessee. Seven games in, Smith ranks 11th in both pass block win rate and run block win rate among guards this season. That’s a lot of value for a late-round pick, and Smith — along with Humphrey and veteran free-agent signing Joe Thuney — makes the interior of the offensive line a real strength for Kansas City.
Kezirian’s Rookie of the Year value bet
Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons
Cincinnati’s Chase is rightfully receiving tons of attention and praise, but Pitts at +1400 feels like great value for Offensive Rookie of the Year. The main concern is that Chase and Pitts play similar positions, so their stats will be compared to one another, as opposed to how voters might compare a QB and receiver. However, we still have two full months remaining in the regular season, and it seems like Pitts is just now hitting his stride with back-to-back 100-yard games.
2013 FSTA award winner for most accurate preseason rankings
Welcome to the Week 7 Fantasy Football Playbook!
This will be your game-by-game guide to the week’s slate of NFL games, featuring score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for both season-long and DFS leagues. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for borderline starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in both raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower due to other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to possible updates during the weekend, though at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
Lineup locks: Aaron Jones, Davante Adams
Aaron Rodgers is fantasy’s QB12 this season, but he has put up 19-plus points in every game since his Week 1 dud and should definitely be in lineups thanks to a great matchup against a Washington defense that has allowed 23-plus QB points in five consecutive games. Taylor Heinicke laid an egg in a great Week 6 matchup and can’t be trusted in lineups after back-to-back duds.
Antonio Gibson had produced four top-25 fantasy weeks before his Week 6 injury woes and should be in lineups if active this week. If he’s out, J.D. McKissic vaults to RB2/lineup lock status and Jaret Patterson becomes a deep-league flex. AJ Dillon’s role is increasing, but he only has one weekly finish better than 30th to show for it. He should remain on benches.
Terry McLaurin has had three duds in his past four outings, but his usage (9.5 targets per game) and talent level are too good to bench. Allen Lazard scored his first touchdown of 2021 last week, but that helped him to only his first top-70 fantasy showing of the season. He’s a deep-league flex, at best. Randall Cobb can’t be trusted after failing to catch a single pass last week for the second time this season.
Ricky Seals-Jones has played on 99% of Washington’s snaps and has 15 targets in place of Logan Thomas over the past two weeks. He is a viable TE1. Robert Tonyan has cleared 3.0 fantasy points in just one game and is best left on benches.
Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Derrick Henry, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce
Ryan Tannehill has just one top-15 fantasy week under his belt this season, in large part because the Titans offense has scored an abnormal percentage of its touchdowns on the ground. This is the highest-projected scoring game of the week, and the Chiefs have allowed the most QB fantasy points this season. Tannehill is a viable streaming option, with a positive reversion to the mean looming.
Darrel Williams stepped in and racked up 21 carries and four targets while playing on 56 snaps in place of Clyde Edwards-Helaire last week. That’s compared with only three carries and four targets on 22 snaps for Jerick McKinnon. Williams is on the RB1 radar this week, whereas McKinnon belongs on benches or waivers.
A.J. Brown delivered his first top-20 fantasy outing of the season in Week 6 and has seen seven-plus targets in all four of his full games this season. He’s a WR2. Julio Jones is questionable for Week 7 after leaving Monday’s game with yet another injury. Jones’ 6-128-0 showing in Week 2 showed that he still belongs in lineups when healthy, so we’ll need to monitor his health this week. Mecole Hardman has produced just one top-30 fantasy week this season and is no more than a flex.
DFS Alert: He’s not cheap, but Mahomes ($8,400) is the best QB value on DraftKings this week. Mahomes is averaging a terrific 25.6 fantasy points per game. He has scored 19-plus points in all six games and 23-plus in all but the Buffalo game. Mahomes has hit the 300-yard bonus three times and ranks top five at the position in both passing and rushing yards. He has had two-plus passing scores in every game and is on pace for a career-high 51. The Titans defense is allowing the fourth-most QB fantasy points and has already had some rough games against other top-tier talents (34 points to Kyler Murray, 29 to Josh Allen, 23 to Russell Wilson).
Matt Ryan has reeled off a pair of top-12 fantasy outings and is a QB1 this week against a struggling Dolphins defense that has allowed the 10th-most QB fantasy points and third-most passing yards. Similarly, the Falcons have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points and sixth-most touchdowns (11) to quarterbacks, which sets up Tua Tagovailoa as a streaming option.
When we last saw him (back in Week 5), Cordarrelle Patterson had a career-high 14 carries and his highest target total (9) since 2014. He also played on a season-high 59% of Atlanta’s snaps. Patterson is an RB1 right now. Mike Davis is technically Atlanta’s lead back and has scored between 10.0 and 13.5 fantasy points in every game this season. He’s on the RB2 radar. Miami’s three-headed committee has resulted in only two individual top-25 fantasy weeks. Both were by Myles Gaskin, who ranks third in RB targets, which is enough to keep him on the RB2 radar.
DeVante Parker missed the past two games but was averaging 7.8 targets per game (7.9 is his career high for a season) before the injury. He will be a WR2/WR3 if back this week. The same goes for Jaylen Waddle, who has scored all three of his touchdowns with Tagovailoa under center and was targeted 12 times last week. Russell Gage is a deep-league flex in his first game back from injury.
Even after Atlanta’s bye, Kyle Pitts is a top-10 tight end in fantasy points, targets, receptions, yards and end zone targets. Mike Gesicki has three top-10 fantasy performances in his past four games and is averaging 8.0 targets per game over his past five outings. Both are TE1 options.
Mac Jones has one top-20 fantasy week under his belt, and that was last week’s 17th-place finish. Fellow rookie Zach Wilson also has one top-20 fantasy showing, and that was a 19th-place spot in Week 1. Neither quarterback should be close to lineups in what projects to be a very low-scoring affair.
Michael Carter’s role continues to expand (12-plus opportunities in four straight games), and he has hit double-digit fantasy points in three of his past four games. He has yet to post his first top-20 fantasy week, but the rookie is on the RB2 fringe this week. Damien Harris has either 100 yards or a touchdown in four of his six games, but a minimal passing-game role has allowed him just two top-25 fantasy weeks (none better than 15th). Rhamondre Stevenson paced the Patriots backfield in routes (7) and targets (3) last week — which is progress, but not enough for flex consideration.
The Jakobi Meyers counter is up to 121 career catches without a touchdown, but he does check in at 11th in the league in targets and should be in lineups. Corey Davis has been as boom/bust as they come with two top-10 fantasy weeks and three finishes outside the top 50. The league’s drop leader (5) is seeing just enough work (7.2 targets per game) to keep him in the WR3/flex mix. Jamison Crowder has racked up 16 targets in two games and is a flex.
Hunter Henry is the Patriots’ undisputed No. 1 tight end right now and has scored in three consecutive games. Consider him to be a fringe TE1, whereas Jonnu Smith (4 targets,15 routes over the past two weeks) is waiver-wire material.
Both Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones were delivering QB1 numbers through the first month of the season, but a recent crash back to earth has left both outside the top-15 scorers in consecutive weeks. Even in plus matchups, both are no more than deep-league streaming options right now.
Jones is an especially risky start right now with so much of his supporting cast injured. That list includes Saquon Barkley, who will once again be replaced by Devontae Booker this week. Booker racked up 12 carries and four targets in the Week 6 blowout loss to the Rams, but his workload keeps him in the RB2 mix, even in a tough matchup. Chuba Hubbard has yet to deliver a top-15 fantasy week, but he handled 16 carries and three targets last week and has a terrific matchup. Consider him to be a fringe RB1 as long as Christian McCaffrey is out.
The Giants are expected to be without both Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney this week, which helps lock Sterling Shepard into a massive target share. Shepard has seen nine-plus targets and cleared 17 fantasy points in all three of his full games this season. He’s a terrific WR2. Robby Anderson has turned 29 targets into only a 10-87-1 receiving line over the past three weeks. The heavy usage keeps him on the WR3 radar, but the inefficiency is a major concern. Darius Slayton (if back from injury) and Dante Pettis are the probable secondary wideouts for New York this week and can be considered deep-league sleepers.
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Joe Mixon, Mark Andrews
The Bengals are 4-2, but that hasn’t meant much fantasy success for Joe Burrow. The second-year quarterback has thrown 14 touchdowns (6th-most), but he is 24th in passing attempts and his best weekly fantasy finish is only ninth. Burrow has managed a high floor, with 17-plus points in five games. With six teams on their bye, he’s a streaming option this week.
In Week 6, Latavius Murray handled nine carries and two targets on 26 snaps, Devonta Freeman managed nine carries and a pair of targets on 21 snaps, and Le’Veon Bell racked up eight carries and zero targets on 21 snaps. This three-headed committee is best avoided, but Murray is your best flex option of the trio.
Ja’Marr Chase is the only wide receiver in the league with at least 13 fantasy points in six games this season. Fantasy’s No. 5-scoring wideout is now in the WR1 mix. Tee Higgins has been quiet since his return to health (76 yards, 13 targets), but he scored twice during Weeks 1-2 and remains a WR2/WR3 option. Tyler Boyd has posted a 15-136-0 receiving line in the four games when Higgins has been active and a 13-154-1 line in the two games he missed. He plummets to flex territory. Rashod Bateman surprisingly played on 67% of Baltimore’s snaps and tied for the team lead with six targets in his pro debut last week. He’ll be a better flex option if Sammy Watkins remains out.
C.J. Uzomah has scored three touchdowns in his past two games, but he has cleared three targets in a game only once. He has also scored at least 6.0 fantasy points just twice this season. He’s a TE2.
Derek Carr has reached 20 fantasy points in four games this season, which has been just enough to squeeze him into the QB top 10 in those weeks. He also has posted a pair of finishes outside the top 20 over the past three weeks. Ranked seventh in passing attempts and a nonfactor with his legs, Carr is a low-ceiling streaming option.
Josh Jacobs’ ceiling has been weak, but he has reached double-digit fantasy points in all four of his games and is averaging a solid 13.5 carries and 3.3 targets per game. He’s a fringe RB1 this week. Miles Sanders sits eighth in RB snaps but only 27th in touches and hasn’t scored a touchdown this season. His 69% snap share and a decent matchup puts him on the RB2 radar, especially with coach Nick Sirianni expected to use him more. Kenneth Gainwell has been under eight fantasy points in four of his past five games and belongs on benches. Kenyan Drake scored on two of his 11 snaps last week and has had nine touches during his past three games. He’s not playing enough for consistent fantasy value.
Hunter Renfrow had hit double-digit fantasy points in every game before Week 6 and is a low-floor WR3. Henry Ruggs III has seen a total of just seven targets over the past two games. That’s not enough, but he still has produced three top-35 fantasy weeks this season and remains in the WR3/flex mix. Jalen Reagor and Quez Watkins are risky starts, but their targets could rise with Zach Ertz gone.
Speaking of Ertz, Dallas Goedert will be back on the TE1 radar this week if he’s activated from the COVID-19 list. If he’s not, avoid Eagles tight ends Jack Stoll and Noah Togiai.
DFS Alert: Goedert checks in at $4,600 at DraftKings this week and is in for a larger role now that Ertz has been traded to Arizona. Goedert is averaging only 3.8 targets per game this season, but that certainly could double — especially considering he averaged 5.8 per game in 2019 and 5.9 per game in 2020. Goedert, who produced a pair of top-eight fantasy weeks with Ertz in the lineup earlier this season, was fantasy’s No. 3-scoring tight end during the four weeks Ertz was sidelined in 2020 (17-200-2 receiving line on 23 targets). The Raiders defense has allowed the sixth-most TE fantasy points this season and the most over the past month, having surrendered 19-plus points to Noah Fant, Jared Cook and Gesicki.
Lineup locks: Darrell Henderson Jr., D’Andre Swift, Cooper Kupp
Matthew Stafford has put up 16-plus fantasy points in every game this season, including a trio of top-10 QB finishes. He’s a terrific play this week against a struggling Lions defense. On the other side of the #RevengeGame narrative is Jared Goff, who has posted four consecutive fantasy finishes outside of the top 20. He shouldn’t be in lineups.
Robert Woods returned to earth last week after his Week 5 explosion, but he still found the end zone for the third time this season and hit double-digit fantasy points for the fifth time in six games. He’s a WR2. Amon-Ra St. Brown has seen 7-8 targets in three straight games and, although he has yet to score a touchdown, the usage is enough to put him in the WR3/flex mix this week. Kalif Raymond is also in the flex discussion after seeing six-plus targets in three of his past four games.
After three consecutive duds, T.J. Hockenson bounced back with an 8-74-0 receiving line on 11 targets last week. He has three top-10 fantasy outings under his belt and remains in the weekly TE1 mix. Tyler Higbee has scored two touchdowns this season, but he hasn’t cleared 40 yards in any game since Week 1. He’s a low-ceiling play but remains on the TE1 radar because the position is so shallow.
DFS Alert: Henderson ($6,600) is a top value play on DraftKings this week. The Rams’ lead back has missed snaps due to various injuries, but he still has managed to average 16.2 carries and 3.4 targets per game. That has led to at least 15.7 fantasy points in all five games when he’s been active. Only five running backs have more points in those weeks. The key this week is the matchup, as Detroit has allowed the most RB touchdowns and fantasy points over expected this season. The Lions have allowed 23-plus fantasy points to four different backs this season, and three others have reached 15 points.
Davis Mills blew up for 24 fantasy points in Week 5, but he otherwise has failed to produce a top-25 outing and belongs nowhere close to lineups.
James Conner has either tied or out-carried Chase Edmonds in all six games this season, and the game script figures to benefit him with Arizona coming in as a massive home favorite this week. Edmonds still holds a 30-6 edge in targets, however, so he gets the slight nod in the rankings. Still, both are very much in the RB2 mix. The Texans’ top three running backs (Mark Ingram II, David Johnson, Phillip Lindsay) rank 50th, 51st and 58th in fantasy points this season. None should be in lineups.
DeAndre Hopkins is still a lineup lock, especially in this week’s #RevengeGame against Houston, but it’s worth noting that he was limited to just three targets last week and his 6.0 per-game average this season is way down from his 9.9 per game in 2020. If that number doesn’t rise, Hopkins will continue to perform below the WR1 level we’re used to seeing. Arizona’s secondary receivers are tough to project, as the three have combined for six top-20 fantasy games but also six finishes of 65th or worse. Rondale Moore’s work in the run game gives him a tiny edge over A.J. Green and Christian Kirk.
Zach Ertz is risky in his Arizona debut, but Maxx Williams had posted two top-six fantasy weeks in his final three games before suffering his injury. Ertz certainly has a path to TE1 status.
DFS Alert: Cooks ($6,000) is the 14th-highest-priced wide receiver on DraftKings this week, checking in below the likes of Julio Jones and Woods. Cooks’ usage has been nothing short of massive, as he’s handling a career-high 9.5 targets per game — including three games with 11-plus looks. Cooks ranks seventh in WR targets and fifth in air yards while still managing an impressive 70% catch rate. Although he has scored only one touchdown, his heavy usage has resulted in 18-plus fantasy points in four of his six games — the exceptions coming against the Bills and Patriots. The Arizona defense has allowed a league-high 10 WR touchdowns, as well as the 12th-most WR fantasy points.
Eliminator Alert: If you’re still alive in your survivor league after a tough Week 6, life will be much easier this time around. There are several heavy favorites, and Arizona stands out as the best of the bunch. The Cardinals (-17.5) are a team you might want to use later this season, but the same goes for other top options such as the Packers, Rams and Buccaneers. Besides, this is Arizona’s highest-remaining projected win probability. Check out our Eliminator Cheat Sheet for the full weekly rundown.
Justin Fields scored a career-high 13 fantasy points last week and, while there was some progress in the rushing department (43 yards), he hasn’t done enough as either a passer or a rusher to justify starting in fantasy.
Leonard Fournette has produced three consecutive top-15 fantasy weeks and is up to seventh in RB touches, fifth in targets and 10th in scrimmage yards. He’s in the RB1 mix this week. Damien Williams and Khalil Herbert split backfield duties in Week 5, and Herbert played on 89% of the snaps (19 carries, 3 targets) with Williams on the COVID-19 list last week. If Williams is back, both are best viewed as RB2/flex options. If Williams is out, Herbert will be an RB2 lock, even against Tampa Bay’s stellar run defense.
If we ignore the Week 3 game missed by Antonio Brown, the Buccaneers’ WR targets are very evenly distributed (Brown 42, Chris Godwin 39, Mike Evans 39). Brown is the No. 6-scoring fantasy wideout for those weeks, with Evans ranked 21st and Godwin 24th. Brown continues to run well behind Evans and Godwin in terms of snaps and routes — which is why they’re ranked higher for the time being — but all three wideouts should be in fantasy lineups.
Allen Robinson II still hasn’t produced a top-45 fantasy week this season, but his eight targets and season-high 204 air yards in Week 6 were a promising development. He should be busy this week with an anticipated pass-heavy game script and is thus on the WR3 radar. The same goes for Darnell Mooney and his 27% target share.
Rob Gronkowski hasn’t played since Week 3 but is still 11th in TE fantasy points and should be played if he’s active. If he’s out, O.J. Howard racked up seven targets on 18 routes, compared with only four targets on 26 routes for Cameron Brate in Week 6. Howard is trending up and would be the preferred play, but it’s close and it’s risky. Cole Kmet’s 4-49-0 receiving line on five targets was enough to launch him to “good TE2” territory due to the sorry overall state of the position.
Carson Wentz has played much better over the past three weeks, but he still has been limited to only one fantasy finish better than 14th this season, in part because he’s not adding much with his legs (74 yards,18 carries). Consider him a deep-league streaming option this week. The same goes for Jimmy Garoppolo, who hasn’t posted a top-12 fantasy week this season but could get an extra throw or two with Trey Lance questionable.
The Colts have allowed the fifth-fewest RB fantasy points, but when we last saw the 49ers, Elijah Mitchell played on 40 of 59 snaps and handled 11 of the 12 opportunities by 49ers tailbacks. Mitchell carried the ball 17 and 19 times during his other two games and, although his minimal receiving role limits his upside, the rookie is the clear lead back and a viable RB2 play. Nyheim Hines has been targeted a grand total of five times during his past three games and simply can’t be trusted as a flex right now.
Michael Pittman Jr. has reached seven targets in four games this season, but it’s concerning that he dropped to just three looks in T.Y. Hilton’s return last week. He’s still on the WR2 radar, but we’ll need to keep an eye on his usage. Hilton played on 50% of the snaps in his 2021 debut but turned his four targets into 80 yards. His role will only increase moving forward, especially with Parris Campbell now on IR. Hilton is on the WR3 radar if he’s able to play, but, if not, Zach Pascal leaps to the flex mix.
Mo Alie-Cox has scored three touchdowns over his past three games, but he also has cleared three targets in only one outing. He’s not a recommended starter, nor is Ross Dwelley, who played on 53 snaps in relief of George Kittle last week but was limited to a mere 25 yards on two targets.
The Saints’ low-volume offense has allowed Jameis Winston to produce a pair of top-five fantasy outings but also three finishes outside of the top 20. He’s a deep-league streaming option against Seattle. Last week, Geno Smith threw for 209 yards and a score — also taking five sacks and losing a yard on his only carry — in his first game subbing for Russell Wilson. He, of course, isn’t a recommended fantasy starter.
The Seattle backfield has more questions than answers right now with Chris Carson out, but Rashaad Penny is expected back this week. Penny was ahead of Alex Collins before his injury, but Collins has played well lately, including a 20-101-1 rushing line last week. Collins is also questionable this week due to injury, which adds another layer of confusion to the mix. At worst, Collins will be on the flex radar if he plays this week, but we could also see some combination of Penny, DeeJay Dallas and Travis Homer. Avoid them all where possible.
DK Metcalf (6-58-0) and Tyler Lockett (2-35-0) both disappointed in Smith’s first start, but it’s also extremely hard to consider benching them, especially with six teams on their bye. Michael Thomas isn’t ready to return, so Marquez Callaway (fresh off a 4-85-2 receiving performance on eight targets in Week 5) is back on the WR3/flex radar.
Gerald Everett found the end zone in Week 1, but he hasn’t cleared either five targets or 54 yards in any game. He’s a low-ceiling TE2.
Teddy Bridgewater has delivered a high floor (four top-15 fantasy weeks), but also a low ceiling (no top-10s) and is a streaming option against a Browns defense allowing the most QB fantasy points over expected this season. Baker Mayfield is out this week and Case Keenum will replace him. Mayfield had not been a viable fantasy starter in his own right (one top-15 fantasy outing), so his replacement is well off the fantasy radar, especially against a Denver defense allowing the third-fewest QB fantasy points and fewest completions.
With Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt sidelined, D’Ernest Johnson is the next man up at running back for Cleveland. Expect Johnson to handle most of the carries, with John Kelly mixing in and Demetric Felton handling a healthy chunk of the passing-game work. Johnson is an RB2 option (even against a Denver defense allowing the fewest RB fantasy points over expected). Kelly and Felton are too risky to start.
Melvin Gordon III has 70 carries and 16 targets this season, whereas Javonte Williams has 65 carries and 15 targets. The committee backfield has allowed Gordon one top-20 fantasy week (Week 1) and has left Williams without a single top-24 outing. The Browns have allowed the second-fewest RB fantasy points to running backs, so consider both as flex options.
Courtland Sutton leads the NFL in air yards (871), sits second in expected touchdowns (3.7) and has been targeted at least eight times in four of his last five games. Especially with Jerry Jeudy still out, Sutton (who has three top-10 fantasy outings under his belt) is in the WR1 mix. His running mate, Tim Patrick, has yet to produce a top-20 fantasy week, but has proven to be a fine flex option with 12-plus points in five of six games.
Odell Beckham Jr. has yet to post a top-25 fantasy week, but his targets are actually up from last season (7.2, up from 6.7) and Denver has allowed the ninth-most WR yards. Beckham remains on the WR3 radar despite his lack of big games. If Jarvis Landry is activated from IR this week, he’ll also be on the WR3 radar. Landry had seven touches for 84 yards and a score in Week 1 — his only full game this season. Donovan Peoples-Jones has produced a 9-171-2 receiving line on 11 targets over the last two weeks, but can only be considered a flex option if Landry is out.
Noah Fant has delivered four top-10 fantasy weeks this season, with either a touchdown or 62 yards in each of those games. Cleveland has allowed the third-fewest TE fantasy points and a league-low 16 TE receptions, but the schedule has been extremely light. Fant has seen 10-plus targets in two of his last three games and is a solid TE1.
Each week of the NFL season, we will identify fantasy football waiver-wire pickups specifically for those of you looking for streaming options in deeper formats (including IDP leagues). These are players available in a majority of ESPN Fantasy leagues (or close) who have enticing matchups in the week ahead that make them worthy of consideration for your lineups.
While you might notice some overlap with Field Yates’ pickup column that publishes on Mondays, an important distinction is that the options mentioned in this column are focused solely on this week’s matchup and not the players’ values for the remainder of the season.
Quarterback
Sam Darnold, Carolina Panthers (46.8% rostered; vs. Vikings)
Darnold was dreadful for the Panthers in last week’s loss against the Eagles. He held onto the football too long, didn’t read Philadelphia’s defense well, was erratic in the pocket, and flat-out missed open receivers. So Darnold has had one less-than-stellar game? There’s no need to panic.
From Week 1-4 he has averaged 27 fantasy points per game. Darnold is in a better position to bounce back at home against the Vikings this week and the return of running back Christian McCaffrey will help tremendously. Darnold can be viewed as a QB2 with upside this week against a Vikings defense (368.8) that’s allowed the 16th most yards per game.
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (42.6%; vs. Dolphins)
The Jaguars are winless and coach Urban Meyer is making headlines for the wrong reasons, but Lawrence has quietly improved with each game this season. Last week’s 273 passing yards was his most since Week 1 (332). Lawrence is also being used more as a runner. He has accumulated 21 rushing attempts over the past three games. The Jaguars’ defense (109.62) has allowed the seventh most fantasy points per game. Lawrence will continue to find himself in neutral-to-negative game scripts that only strengthen his fantasy viability. He’s on the streaming radar this week against a Dolphins defense that’s allowed the sixth most point per game to quarterbacks (22.03).
Taylor Heinicke, Washington Football Team (12.6%; vs. Chiefs)
Last week’s performance against the Saints paints a crystal-clear picture that Heinicke cannot be relied upon every week as a starter. He’s a matchup-based streamer and the last time I recommended him in this column, Heinicke threw for 290 yards and three touchdowns against the Falcons. Heinicke has another exploitable matchup against the Chiefs in Week 6.
No other team allows the most points to quarterbacks on a per-game basis than Kansas City (28). Heinicke’s rushing ability is also understated as he has stockpiled 22 rushing attempts in four starts and has averaged 5.17 yards per attempt. The Chiefs’ defense (141) has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game. Kansas City presents a perfect bounce-back opportunity.
Running Back
Darrel Williams, Kansas City Chiefs (7.6%; vs. Washington Football Team)
Unfortunately, Clyde Edwards-Helaire will miss a few weeks with an MCL sprain. “In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity,” was mentioned by Sun-Tzu and rings true to Williams’ situation. He led the Chiefs with 37 snaps and five rushing attempts against the Bills on Sunday Night Football, and is expected to be Kansas City’s lead back, while Jerick McKinnon is used as a receiver out of the backfield. Williams provided us with a glimpse of what he’s capable of last season in the playoffs when Edwards-Helaire was injured. In the Chiefs’ two playoff games, he stockpiled 1,155 total yards and a touchdown on 31 touches. He’s an excellent plug-and-play RB2 against a Washington defense (120.24) that’s surrendered the most points per game this season in fantasy.
Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears (4.7%; vs. Packers)
Herbert finished last week’s game against the Raiders with 18 rushing attempts compared to Damien Williams’ 16, and Herbert played more snaps. There should be enough touches for both in the Bears’ run-heavy offense with starting quarterback Justin Fields. For those unfamiliar with Herbert, he played his collegiate career at Kansas and Virginia Tech. In 46 college games, Herbert rushed for 2,918 yards and 22 touchdowns on 475 attempts and had 34 receptions for 297 yards and another score. From a film perspective, Herbert has solid balance, play speed, and identifies running lanes well. Herbert is a solid RB3 or flex option against the Packers in Week 6.
Wide Receiver
Quez Watkins, Philadelphia Eagles (2.2%; vs. Buccaneers)
Watkins’ number of snaps continues to trend up as the season progresses. He has caught 13 of 17 targets for 267 yards. On the other hand, Jalen Reagor has caught only 17 of 25 targets for 140 yards. Watkins lost out on a touchdown last week against the Panthers, as Jalen Hurts pass missed a wide-open Watkins on a free play. He could have a career day with his blazing speed against a Buccaneers defense allowing the second most points to wide receivers.
Rondale Moore, Arizona Cardinals (37.3%; vs. at Browns)
Moore was marvelous in the Cardinals’ Week 5 win over the 49ers. He displayed his catching ability, play speed, and tackle-breaking ability. Moore was deployed as not only a runner, but also as a receiver and it’s worth noting that this is the first time this season that Moore ran more routes than Christian Kirk in a game. He’s an excellent flex option or WR3 especially if you are looking for upside.
Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens (12.8%; vs. Chargers)
Bateman’s return is imminent and it’s coming at a perfect time for the Ravens offense. Quarterback Lamar Jackson continues to develop nicely as a passer. According to ESPN Stats & Info, he’s the first player in NFL history with 400 yards passing, four touchdowns, zero interceptions, and 50 rushing yards in a single game. The Ravens could use another receiving option. Tight end Mark Andrews and wide receiver Marquise Brown combined for 23 targets. Bateman offers them the versatility to play both on the outside and from the slot. He finished his 31-game collegiate career at Minnesota with 147 receptions, 2,395 receiving yards (sixth in school history) and 19 touchdowns (fifth). You should consider starting Bateman in his first regular-season game.
Tight End
Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins (45.7% rostered; at Jaguars)
Gesicki has amassed 25 targets over the Dolphins’ past three games. His targets per snap is on par with Darren Waller. Although Gesicki has played only 60.8% of Miami’s offensive snaps, that paints a picture of how often he has been involved in the Dolphins’ passing game. This usage trend is likely to continue against the Jaguars as Jacksonville’s defense has allowed the ninth most points per game to tight ends. Gesicki is a TE1 you shouldn’t overlook if your fantasy team needs a streamer.
Hunter Henry, New England Patriots (35.7% rostered; vs. Cowboys)
Henry has caught 10 of 13 targets for 107 yards and two touchdowns over the past two games and quarterback Mac Jones has a passer rating of 110.4 when targeting him this season. Henry is starting to heat up and should continue to be provided targets. The rapport between Henry and Jones should only strengthen as the season progresses. He’s a TE1 against the Dallas Cowboys’ defense that has allowed the 10th-most points per game to tight ends entering Week 6.
Mo Alie-Cox, Indianapolis Colts (0.3% rostered; vs. Texans)
Alie-Cox is operating as the Colts No. 1 tight end ahead of Jack Doyle. Over the past two games, he has caught 6 of 9 targets for 92 yards and two touchdowns. You can feel comfortable playing Alie-Cox against a Texans defense (20.8) that’s allowed the most points per game to his position.
Defense/special teams
Indianapolis Colts (43.7% rostered; vs. Texans)
You might be shocked to see the Colts as a recommendation after their defensive implosion on Monday Night Football against the Ravens. Indianapolis will be motivated to bounce back defensively against the Texans. Davis Mills threw for 312 yards and three touchdowns, but don’t allow that to blind you from two things. First, Mills is a rookie leading a Texans team with very few playmakers. Second, Houston has allowed 10 sacks, 6 takeaways, and averages a dismal 10 points per game. This is a great recipe for streaming success.
Green Bay Packers (20.1% rostered; at Bears)
The Bears are a disaster on offense right now. They rank last in total yards (240) per game and average only 16.8 points per game as an offensive unit that is also near the bottom of the league. On top of that, the Bears have limited the pass attempts of Justin Fields. He has had 24 pass attempts or fewer in four consecutive games. The Bears offensive line has given up 18 sacks. The Packers are in a good spot at home against Chicago’s suboptimal offense.
Cincinnati Bengals (17.1% rostered; at Lions)
The Bengals defense wasn’t strong enough to subdue Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams last week. However, Cincinnati should have more luck against Jared Goff and the Lions offense. Detroit has averaged 339.6 total yards and 19.6 points per game. The Lions rank near the bottom of the league in both statistical categories. If you’re in a bind at the D/ST position, look no further than the Bengals.
Kicker
Ryan Succop, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (32.2%, at Eagles)
Succop only had one field goal attempt, which he made, and was successful on all six extra point attempts in the Buccaneers win over the Dolphins last week. This is important because he has had some misses in each of the past three games. The Buccaneers offense is a juggernaut averaging an incredible 431.4 total yards. Succop appears to be back on track and should see plenty of opportunities against the Eagles.
Evan McPherson, Cincinnati Bengals (10%; at Lions)
McPherson is tied to a Bengals offense that has scored 24 or more points in each of their past three games. Cincinnati’s offense shouldn’t have trouble accumulating yards against the Lions defense. No other team allows more fantasy points per game to kickers than Detroit.
Zane Gonzalez, Carolina Panthers (0.3%; vs. Vikings)
Darnold and the Panthers look to bounce back at home against the Vikings. Gonzalez made all three of his field goal attempts and an extra point against the Eagles last week. He’s in a great position to replicate that performance against the Vikings, who are tied with the Texans for allowing the fourth most points to kickers.
Individual Defensive Players (IDP)
Defensive Line
Shaquil Barrett, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (39.7%; vs. Eagles)
Barrett has stockpiled 18 tackles, 3.5 sacks and an interception. He has stepped up in a major way for the Buccaneers defense. Barrett will have plenty of opportunities to display his pass rushing skills against an Eagles offense (36.6) averaging the 12th most pass attempts per game.
Linebacker
Isaiah Simmons, Arizona Cardinals (40.8%, at Browns)
Simmons has been the most consistent tackle producer on the Cardinals. He’s delivering on the hype after Arizona selected him eighth overall in the 2020 NFL draft. He should be busy against a Browns offense that leans heavily on Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.
Defensive Back
Taron Johnson, Buffalo Bills (19.6%, at Titans)
Johnson was able to get retribution against the Chiefs after getting embarrassed by them during the regular season and playoffs last year. He led the Bills with 12 tackles against Kansas City. Johnson has become one of the most important players on the Buffalo defense. He’s in a good spot against the Titans and on the streaming radar.
Rejoice, football fans! The first Sunday of the NFL regular season is here! The 2021 season got off to a great start thanks to the thrilling game between the Dallas Cowboys and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The other 30 teams are making the final adjustments to their roster before Week 1, which means managing their injury report. Some teams have received positive news about key players battling injuries. Indianapolis Colts head coach Frank Reich said quarterback Carson Wentz will start after undergoing surgery on his foot a little over a month ago, and New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley seems to be on track to play Sunday after missing most of last season with an ACL injury. Other squads aren’t so lucky, however. The Baltimore Ravens have had to endure many injuries already, specifically to their running backs.
Heading into Week 1, our team reporters break down injury news surrounding big-name players that could impact their team’s chances of winning. Here’s what we know about their status heading into opening week in the NFL:
Quick links: Schedule | Depth charts | PickCenter
Injury: Foot
After being limited in practice all week, Sanders is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game against the Pittsburgh Steelers with a lingering foot injury. Sanders, however, is likely to play in his first game for the Bills this weekend. The oldest player on the roster quickly developed chemistry with quarterback Josh Allen and should have a sizeable role on the offense this year. — Alaina Getzenberg
Trae Waynes, CB, Cincinnati Bengals
Injury: Hamstring
Waynes, who missed all of 2020 with a pectoral injury, will not make his Cincinnati debut against his former club, the Minnesota Vikings. Waynes suffered a hamstring injury toward the end of training camp and didn’t practice all week ahead of Sunday’s game. Look for cornerback Eli Apple to get the start opposite Chidobe Awuzie. Apple and Awuzie will have to contend with Vikings WRs Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson. — Ben Baby
Injury: Finger
Decker suffered a finger injury earlier in the week and will miss Week 1. “We’ll adjust from there and we will move forward,” said Lions coach Dan Campbell. Decker started Wednesday’s practice, but the injury occurred in pass protection. He met with a doctor Friday afternoon where his status was determined. Campbell feels “that it’s probably leaning that way” to requiring surgery. Rookie Penei Sewell will likely fill his role as they look to protect QB Jared Goff in his debut. — Eric Woodyard
Injury: Back
Smith has practiced exactly three times this season — once midway through training camp only to shut it down the next day, and then twice this week, only to be held out on Friday. What would the Packers miss without him? It’s hard to know because he hasn’t missed a game since he signed with them in 2019, but know this: He’s one of only three players with 12-plus sacks in each of the past two seasons (Aaron Donald and T.J. Watt are the others). It will be a game-time decision but considering coach Matt LaFleur said Friday that Smith is still “feeling some things,” it doesn’t look good. — Rob Demovsky
Injury: Calf
Seattle Seahawks receivers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett would be in for a big game against the Colts since they won’t have their top outside cornerback. Rock Ya-Sin is the frontrunner to start with Kenny Moore to try to slow down the Seattle passing game. Both Metcalf and Lockett had over 1,000 receiving yards last season. — Mike Wells
Injury: COVID-19 list
Mathieu remained on the Covid-19 list Friday after testing positive last week. He hasn’t practiced all week and, though the Chiefs could still activate him in time for Sunday’s game if he passes the NFL’s protocols, that’s unlikely. “We’ll move guys around, do what we have to, try to do most of the things we do with Tyrann but certainly some of those things are going to change and some of the calls might alter because of that,” defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo said. — Adam Teicher
Injury: Hamstring
He did not practice Wednesday or Thursday, but his agent says it was “precautionary.” We will see if this is a lingering problem, but coach Brandon Staley is very careful when one of his guys comes up with an issue. Ekeler had a hamstring issue last season where it was so painful he had to walk backwards. — Shelley Smith
Injury: Knee
The Vikings optimism surrounding Barr’s availability quickly dissipated after he did not practice on Thursday and Friday. Some days the lingering knee issue feels good, others it doesn’t, according to coach Mike Zimmer. This could be a chronic problem on a week-to-week basis. Replacing Barr will be Nick Vigil, who will wear green dot duties after calling the defense throughout training camp in Barr’s absence. Cincinnati typically uses three or four receivers at a time, so it’s likely Vigil will play an every-down role Sunday if the Vikings stay in their nickel defense. — Courtney Cronin
Injury: Ankle
Agholor didn’t practice Thursday and was limited Friday, with his official designation as questionable. Fellow WR Jakobi Meyers said Thursday that he didn’t even realize that Agholor was ailing, so that was either good gamesmanship or a reflection that Agholor will be available Sunday. — Mike Reiss
Injury: Knee
Barkley has done everything the Giants asked this summer, without any setbacks. It has him positioned to play in the opener after tearing the ACL in his right knee in Week 2 of last season. Barkley will play Sunday, albeit in a limited role, barring a setback. Coach Joe Judge has been adamant about taking a long-range approach with his star running back and that might mean around 20 to 30 snaps and 10-15 touches in his first game back.— Jordan Ranaan
Injury: COVID-19 list
Their top slot receiver hasn’t cleared COVID-19 protocols, so the Jets could use rookie Elijah Moore in the slot or turn to Braxton Berrios. WR Keelan Cole (knee) is questionable, which could mean a role for Denzel Mims or Vyncint Smith (practice squad). — Rich Cimini
Injury: Hamstring
Smith was expected back from his nagging hamstring injury this week. But he wound up on injured reserve Friday instead after returning to practice for just one day earlier in the week. That means preseason breakout Marquez Callaway is the Saints’ no-doubt No. 1 target since Michael Thomas is also sidelined for at least five weeks with an ankle injury. Unfortunately, the Packers have a WR1 eraser in CB Jaire Alexander, so the Saints will need their secondary receivers and tight ends to step up in a big way – with second-year TE Juwan Johnson being the biggest sleeper candidate for daily fantasy purposes. — Mike Triplett
Injury: Hamstring
Crawley landed on injured reserve Friday after missing practice all week. If healthy, Crawley was a leading contender to start as New Orleans’ No. 2 CB in Week 1 since newly-acquired veteran Bradley Roby isn’t eligible to play until Week 2. Now the Saints will likely count on rookie third-round draft pick Paulson Adebo or another newly-signed veteran, Desmond Trufant. Either way, expect that spot to be tested relentlessly by the Packers and reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers. — Mike Triplett
Injury: Knee
McLeod was recently taken off the physically unable to perform list but isn’t quite ready for game action after tearing his ACL in December. He’s been ruled out of Sunday’s game against the Atlanta Falcons. Second-year player K’Von Wallace is expected to get the start in his absence opposite Anthony Harris. Wallace started three games last year and finished the season with 21 tackles. — Tim McManus
Injury: Knee
Moseley enters this year as a starter at one of San Francisco’s thinnest positions, which means his potential absence in the opener creates a big question mark for San Francisco’s defense against the Lions. Moseley is officially listed as doubtful for Sunday, which means the Niners’ choices to replace him are rookies Deommodore Lenoir and Ambry Thomas, just-signed-this-week veteran Josh Norman and veteran journeyman Dontae Johnson. — Nick Wagoner
Injury: Groin
Samuel was placed on injured reserve with the intention of bringing him back after three weeks. He suffered a setback in his recovery this past week in practice and with two games in the first five days, Washington knew he wouldn’t be available. The key will be how he feels in three weeks and if his groin responds better. He initially hurt it during spring workouts and has practiced once all summer. — John Keim
Super Bowl LV pitting the AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs and NFC champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers is nearly upon us. There already is playoff trivia that links the quarterbacks: Tom Brady is the only quarterback to beat Patrick Mahomes in the postseason (2018 AFC Championship Game).
Each of them also already is a Super Bowl MVP. In future years when it comes to Super Bowl trivia you’ll probably need to remember that the Buccaneers are the first team to play at home for the Lombardi trophy and that Brady is the oldest QB to start in a Super Bowl.
Did you know three linebackers have been the game’s MVP since the last time a running back won the award? The odds aren’t good for a running back this year either, with Mahomes the clear favorite and Brady the next choice. How much do you know about other Super Bowl MVPs? Winning teams? Matchups? Announcers?
Here’s a chance to try your hand at our 15-question Super Bowl trivia quiz. Are you ready for your own taste of Super Bowl glory? Or will you find yourself on the losing end of the score?
