Welcome to the Week 7 Fantasy Football Playbook!
This will be your game-by-game guide to the week’s slate of NFL games, featuring score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for both season-long and DFS leagues. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for borderline starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in both raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower due to other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to possible updates during the weekend, though at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
Lineup locks: Aaron Jones, Davante Adams
Aaron Rodgers is fantasy’s QB12 this season, but he has put up 19-plus points in every game since his Week 1 dud and should definitely be in lineups thanks to a great matchup against a Washington defense that has allowed 23-plus QB points in five consecutive games. Taylor Heinicke laid an egg in a great Week 6 matchup and can’t be trusted in lineups after back-to-back duds.
Antonio Gibson had produced four top-25 fantasy weeks before his Week 6 injury woes and should be in lineups if active this week. If he’s out, J.D. McKissic vaults to RB2/lineup lock status and Jaret Patterson becomes a deep-league flex. AJ Dillon’s role is increasing, but he only has one weekly finish better than 30th to show for it. He should remain on benches.
Terry McLaurin has had three duds in his past four outings, but his usage (9.5 targets per game) and talent level are too good to bench. Allen Lazard scored his first touchdown of 2021 last week, but that helped him to only his first top-70 fantasy showing of the season. He’s a deep-league flex, at best. Randall Cobb can’t be trusted after failing to catch a single pass last week for the second time this season.
Ricky Seals-Jones has played on 99% of Washington’s snaps and has 15 targets in place of Logan Thomas over the past two weeks. He is a viable TE1. Robert Tonyan has cleared 3.0 fantasy points in just one game and is best left on benches.
Over/Under: 53.6 (2nd-highest in Week 7)
Win Prob: Packers 75% (4th-highest)
Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Derrick Henry, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce
Ryan Tannehill has just one top-15 fantasy week under his belt this season, in large part because the Titans offense has scored an abnormal percentage of its touchdowns on the ground. This is the highest-projected scoring game of the week, and the Chiefs have allowed the most QB fantasy points this season. Tannehill is a viable streaming option, with a positive reversion to the mean looming.
Darrel Williams stepped in and racked up 21 carries and four targets while playing on 56 snaps in place of Clyde Edwards-Helaire last week. That’s compared with only three carries and four targets on 22 snaps for Jerick McKinnon. Williams is on the RB1 radar this week, whereas McKinnon belongs on benches or waivers.
A.J. Brown delivered his first top-20 fantasy outing of the season in Week 6 and has seen seven-plus targets in all four of his full games this season. He’s a WR2. Julio Jones is questionable for Week 7 after leaving Monday’s game with yet another injury. Jones’ 6-128-0 showing in Week 2 showed that he still belongs in lineups when healthy, so we’ll need to monitor his health this week. Mecole Hardman has produced just one top-30 fantasy week this season and is no more than a flex.
DFS Alert: He’s not cheap, but Mahomes ($8,400) is the best QB value on DraftKings this week. Mahomes is averaging a terrific 25.6 fantasy points per game. He has scored 19-plus points in all six games and 23-plus in all but the Buffalo game. Mahomes has hit the 300-yard bonus three times and ranks top five at the position in both passing and rushing yards. He has had two-plus passing scores in every game and is on pace for a career-high 51. The Titans defense is allowing the fourth-most QB fantasy points and has already had some rough games against other top-tier talents (34 points to Kyler Murray, 29 to Josh Allen, 23 to Russell Wilson).
Over/Under: 61.5 (Highest)
Win Prob: Titans 51% (13th-highest)
Lineup lock: Calvin Ridley
Matt Ryan has reeled off a pair of top-12 fantasy outings and is a QB1 this week against a struggling Dolphins defense that has allowed the 10th-most QB fantasy points and third-most passing yards. Similarly, the Falcons have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points and sixth-most touchdowns (11) to quarterbacks, which sets up Tua Tagovailoa as a streaming option.
When we last saw him (back in Week 5), Cordarrelle Patterson had a career-high 14 carries and his highest target total (9) since 2014. He also played on a season-high 59% of Atlanta’s snaps. Patterson is an RB1 right now. Mike Davis is technically Atlanta’s lead back and has scored between 10.0 and 13.5 fantasy points in every game this season. He’s on the RB2 radar. Miami’s three-headed committee has resulted in only two individual top-25 fantasy weeks. Both were by Myles Gaskin, who ranks third in RB targets, which is enough to keep him on the RB2 radar.
DeVante Parker missed the past two games but was averaging 7.8 targets per game (7.9 is his career high for a season) before the injury. He will be a WR2/WR3 if back this week. The same goes for Jaylen Waddle, who has scored all three of his touchdowns with Tagovailoa under center and was targeted 12 times last week. Russell Gage is a deep-league flex in his first game back from injury.
Even after Atlanta’s bye, Kyle Pitts is a top-10 tight end in fantasy points, targets, receptions, yards and end zone targets. Mike Gesicki has three top-10 fantasy performances in his past four games and is averaging 8.0 targets per game over his past five outings. Both are TE1 options.
Over/Under: 46 (10th-highest)
Win Prob: Falcons 56% (9th-highest)
Lineup locks: None
Mac Jones has one top-20 fantasy week under his belt, and that was last week’s 17th-place finish. Fellow rookie Zach Wilson also has one top-20 fantasy showing, and that was a 19th-place spot in Week 1. Neither quarterback should be close to lineups in what projects to be a very low-scoring affair.
Michael Carter’s role continues to expand (12-plus opportunities in four straight games), and he has hit double-digit fantasy points in three of his past four games. He has yet to post his first top-20 fantasy week, but the rookie is on the RB2 fringe this week. Damien Harris has either 100 yards or a touchdown in four of his six games, but a minimal passing-game role has allowed him just two top-25 fantasy weeks (none better than 15th). Rhamondre Stevenson paced the Patriots backfield in routes (7) and targets (3) last week — which is progress, but not enough for flex consideration.
The Jakobi Meyers counter is up to 121 career catches without a touchdown, but he does check in at 11th in the league in targets and should be in lineups. Corey Davis has been as boom/bust as they come with two top-10 fantasy weeks and three finishes outside the top 50. The league’s drop leader (5) is seeing just enough work (7.2 targets per game) to keep him in the WR3/flex mix. Jamison Crowder has racked up 16 targets in two games and is a flex.
Hunter Henry is the Patriots’ undisputed No. 1 tight end right now and has scored in three consecutive games. Consider him to be a fringe TE1, whereas Jonnu Smith (4 targets,15 routes over the past two weeks) is waiver-wire material.
Over/Under: 38.1 (13th-highest)
Win Prob: Patriots 69% (7th-highest)
Lineup lock: DJ Moore
Both Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones were delivering QB1 numbers through the first month of the season, but a recent crash back to earth has left both outside the top-15 scorers in consecutive weeks. Even in plus matchups, both are no more than deep-league streaming options right now.
Jones is an especially risky start right now with so much of his supporting cast injured. That list includes Saquon Barkley, who will once again be replaced by Devontae Booker this week. Booker racked up 12 carries and four targets in the Week 6 blowout loss to the Rams, but his workload keeps him in the RB2 mix, even in a tough matchup. Chuba Hubbard has yet to deliver a top-15 fantasy week, but he handled 16 carries and three targets last week and has a terrific matchup. Consider him to be a fringe RB1 as long as Christian McCaffrey is out.
The Giants are expected to be without both Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney this week, which helps lock Sterling Shepard into a massive target share. Shepard has seen nine-plus targets and cleared 17 fantasy points in all three of his full games this season. He’s a terrific WR2. Robby Anderson has turned 29 targets into only a 10-87-1 receiving line over the past three weeks. The heavy usage keeps him on the WR3 radar, but the inefficiency is a major concern. Darius Slayton (if back from injury) and Dante Pettis are the probable secondary wideouts for New York this week and can be considered deep-league sleepers.
Over/Under: 43.5 (11th-highest)
Win Prob: Panthers 73% (5th-highest)
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Joe Mixon, Mark Andrews
The Bengals are 4-2, but that hasn’t meant much fantasy success for Joe Burrow. The second-year quarterback has thrown 14 touchdowns (6th-most), but he is 24th in passing attempts and his best weekly fantasy finish is only ninth. Burrow has managed a high floor, with 17-plus points in five games. With six teams on their bye, he’s a streaming option this week.
In Week 6, Latavius Murray handled nine carries and two targets on 26 snaps, Devonta Freeman managed nine carries and a pair of targets on 21 snaps, and Le’Veon Bell racked up eight carries and zero targets on 21 snaps. This three-headed committee is best avoided, but Murray is your best flex option of the trio.
Ja’Marr Chase is the only wide receiver in the league with at least 13 fantasy points in six games this season. Fantasy’s No. 5-scoring wideout is now in the WR1 mix. Tee Higgins has been quiet since his return to health (76 yards, 13 targets), but he scored twice during Weeks 1-2 and remains a WR2/WR3 option. Tyler Boyd has posted a 15-136-0 receiving line in the four games when Higgins has been active and a 13-154-1 line in the two games he missed. He plummets to flex territory. Rashod Bateman surprisingly played on 67% of Baltimore’s snaps and tied for the team lead with six targets in his pro debut last week. He’ll be a better flex option if Sammy Watkins remains out.
C.J. Uzomah has scored three touchdowns in his past two games, but he has cleared three targets in a game only once. He has also scored at least 6.0 fantasy points just twice this season. He’s a TE2.
Over/Under: 51.2 (3rd-highest)
Win Prob: Ravens 52% (11th-highest)
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Darren Waller
Derek Carr has reached 20 fantasy points in four games this season, which has been just enough to squeeze him into the QB top 10 in those weeks. He also has posted a pair of finishes outside the top 20 over the past three weeks. Ranked seventh in passing attempts and a nonfactor with his legs, Carr is a low-ceiling streaming option.
Josh Jacobs’ ceiling has been weak, but he has reached double-digit fantasy points in all four of his games and is averaging a solid 13.5 carries and 3.3 targets per game. He’s a fringe RB1 this week. Miles Sanders sits eighth in RB snaps but only 27th in touches and hasn’t scored a touchdown this season. His 69% snap share and a decent matchup puts him on the RB2 radar, especially with coach Nick Sirianni expected to use him more. Kenneth Gainwell has been under eight fantasy points in four of his past five games and belongs on benches. Kenyan Drake scored on two of his 11 snaps last week and has had nine touches during his past three games. He’s not playing enough for consistent fantasy value.
Hunter Renfrow had hit double-digit fantasy points in every game before Week 6 and is a low-floor WR3. Henry Ruggs III has seen a total of just seven targets over the past two games. That’s not enough, but he still has produced three top-35 fantasy weeks this season and remains in the WR3/flex mix. Jalen Reagor and Quez Watkins are risky starts, but their targets could rise with Zach Ertz gone.
Speaking of Ertz, Dallas Goedert will be back on the TE1 radar this week if he’s activated from the COVID-19 list. If he’s not, avoid Eagles tight ends Jack Stoll and Noah Togiai.
DFS Alert: Goedert checks in at $4,600 at DraftKings this week and is in for a larger role now that Ertz has been traded to Arizona. Goedert is averaging only 3.8 targets per game this season, but that certainly could double — especially considering he averaged 5.8 per game in 2019 and 5.9 per game in 2020. Goedert, who produced a pair of top-eight fantasy weeks with Ertz in the lineup earlier this season, was fantasy’s No. 3-scoring tight end during the four weeks Ertz was sidelined in 2020 (17-200-2 receiving line on 23 targets). The Raiders defense has allowed the sixth-most TE fantasy points this season and the most over the past month, having surrendered 19-plus points to Noah Fant, Jared Cook and Gesicki.
Over/Under: 48.5 (6th-highest)
Win Prob: Raiders 66% (8th-highest)
Lineup locks: Darrell Henderson Jr., D’Andre Swift, Cooper Kupp
Matthew Stafford has put up 16-plus fantasy points in every game this season, including a trio of top-10 QB finishes. He’s a terrific play this week against a struggling Lions defense. On the other side of the #RevengeGame narrative is Jared Goff, who has posted four consecutive fantasy finishes outside of the top 20. He shouldn’t be in lineups.
Robert Woods returned to earth last week after his Week 5 explosion, but he still found the end zone for the third time this season and hit double-digit fantasy points for the fifth time in six games. He’s a WR2. Amon-Ra St. Brown has seen 7-8 targets in three straight games and, although he has yet to score a touchdown, the usage is enough to put him in the WR3/flex mix this week. Kalif Raymond is also in the flex discussion after seeing six-plus targets in three of his past four games.
After three consecutive duds, T.J. Hockenson bounced back with an 8-74-0 receiving line on 11 targets last week. He has three top-10 fantasy outings under his belt and remains in the weekly TE1 mix. Tyler Higbee has scored two touchdowns this season, but he hasn’t cleared 40 yards in any game since Week 1. He’s a low-ceiling play but remains on the TE1 radar because the position is so shallow.
DFS Alert: Henderson ($6,600) is a top value play on DraftKings this week. The Rams’ lead back has missed snaps due to various injuries, but he still has managed to average 16.2 carries and 3.4 targets per game. That has led to at least 15.7 fantasy points in all five games when he’s been active. Only five running backs have more points in those weeks. The key this week is the matchup, as Detroit has allowed the most RB touchdowns and fantasy points over expected this season. The Lions have allowed 23-plus fantasy points to four different backs this season, and three others have reached 15 points.
Over/Under: 48 (7th-highest)
Win Prob: Rams 96% (2nd-highest)
Lineup locks: Kyler Murray, Brandin Cooks
Davis Mills blew up for 24 fantasy points in Week 5, but he otherwise has failed to produce a top-25 outing and belongs nowhere close to lineups.
James Conner has either tied or out-carried Chase Edmonds in all six games this season, and the game script figures to benefit him with Arizona coming in as a massive home favorite this week. Edmonds still holds a 30-6 edge in targets, however, so he gets the slight nod in the rankings. Still, both are very much in the RB2 mix. The Texans’ top three running backs (Mark Ingram II, David Johnson, Phillip Lindsay) rank 50th, 51st and 58th in fantasy points this season. None should be in lineups.
DeAndre Hopkins is still a lineup lock, especially in this week’s #RevengeGame against Houston, but it’s worth noting that he was limited to just three targets last week and his 6.0 per-game average this season is way down from his 9.9 per game in 2020. If that number doesn’t rise, Hopkins will continue to perform below the WR1 level we’re used to seeing. Arizona’s secondary receivers are tough to project, as the three have combined for six top-20 fantasy games but also six finishes of 65th or worse. Rondale Moore’s work in the run game gives him a tiny edge over A.J. Green and Christian Kirk.
Zach Ertz is risky in his Arizona debut, but Maxx Williams had posted two top-six fantasy weeks in his final three games before suffering his injury. Ertz certainly has a path to TE1 status.
DFS Alert: Cooks ($6,000) is the 14th-highest-priced wide receiver on DraftKings this week, checking in below the likes of Julio Jones and Woods. Cooks’ usage has been nothing short of massive, as he’s handling a career-high 9.5 targets per game — including three games with 11-plus looks. Cooks ranks seventh in WR targets and fifth in air yards while still managing an impressive 70% catch rate. Although he has scored only one touchdown, his heavy usage has resulted in 18-plus fantasy points in four of his six games — the exceptions coming against the Bills and Patriots. The Arizona defense has allowed a league-high 10 WR touchdowns, as well as the 12th-most WR fantasy points.
Eliminator Alert: If you’re still alive in your survivor league after a tough Week 6, life will be much easier this time around. There are several heavy favorites, and Arizona stands out as the best of the bunch. The Cardinals (-17.5) are a team you might want to use later this season, but the same goes for other top options such as the Packers, Rams and Buccaneers. Besides, this is Arizona’s highest-remaining projected win probability. Check out our Eliminator Cheat Sheet for the full weekly rundown.
Over/Under: 49.2 (4th-highest)
Win Prob: Cardinals 96% (Highest)
Lineup lock: Tom Brady
Justin Fields scored a career-high 13 fantasy points last week and, while there was some progress in the rushing department (43 yards), he hasn’t done enough as either a passer or a rusher to justify starting in fantasy.
Leonard Fournette has produced three consecutive top-15 fantasy weeks and is up to seventh in RB touches, fifth in targets and 10th in scrimmage yards. He’s in the RB1 mix this week. Damien Williams and Khalil Herbert split backfield duties in Week 5, and Herbert played on 89% of the snaps (19 carries, 3 targets) with Williams on the COVID-19 list last week. If Williams is back, both are best viewed as RB2/flex options. If Williams is out, Herbert will be an RB2 lock, even against Tampa Bay’s stellar run defense.
If we ignore the Week 3 game missed by Antonio Brown, the Buccaneers’ WR targets are very evenly distributed (Brown 42, Chris Godwin 39, Mike Evans 39). Brown is the No. 6-scoring fantasy wideout for those weeks, with Evans ranked 21st and Godwin 24th. Brown continues to run well behind Evans and Godwin in terms of snaps and routes — which is why they’re ranked higher for the time being — but all three wideouts should be in fantasy lineups.
Allen Robinson II still hasn’t produced a top-45 fantasy week this season, but his eight targets and season-high 204 air yards in Week 6 were a promising development. He should be busy this week with an anticipated pass-heavy game script and is thus on the WR3 radar. The same goes for Darnell Mooney and his 27% target share.
Rob Gronkowski hasn’t played since Week 3 but is still 11th in TE fantasy points and should be played if he’s active. If he’s out, O.J. Howard racked up seven targets on 18 routes, compared with only four targets on 26 routes for Cameron Brate in Week 6. Howard is trending up and would be the preferred play, but it’s close and it’s risky. Cole Kmet’s 4-49-0 receiving line on five targets was enough to launch him to “good TE2” territory due to the sorry overall state of the position.
Over/Under: 46.3 (8th-highest)
Win Prob: Buccaneers 84% (3rd-highest)
Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Deebo Samuel
Carson Wentz has played much better over the past three weeks, but he still has been limited to only one fantasy finish better than 14th this season, in part because he’s not adding much with his legs (74 yards,18 carries). Consider him a deep-league streaming option this week. The same goes for Jimmy Garoppolo, who hasn’t posted a top-12 fantasy week this season but could get an extra throw or two with Trey Lance questionable.
The Colts have allowed the fifth-fewest RB fantasy points, but when we last saw the 49ers, Elijah Mitchell played on 40 of 59 snaps and handled 11 of the 12 opportunities by 49ers tailbacks. Mitchell carried the ball 17 and 19 times during his other two games and, although his minimal receiving role limits his upside, the rookie is the clear lead back and a viable RB2 play. Nyheim Hines has been targeted a grand total of five times during his past three games and simply can’t be trusted as a flex right now.
Michael Pittman Jr. has reached seven targets in four games this season, but it’s concerning that he dropped to just three looks in T.Y. Hilton’s return last week. He’s still on the WR2 radar, but we’ll need to keep an eye on his usage. Hilton played on 50% of the snaps in his 2021 debut but turned his four targets into 80 yards. His role will only increase moving forward, especially with Parris Campbell now on IR. Hilton is on the WR3 radar if he’s able to play, but, if not, Zach Pascal leaps to the flex mix.
Mo Alie-Cox has scored three touchdowns over his past three games, but he also has cleared three targets in only one outing. He’s not a recommended starter, nor is Ross Dwelley, who played on 53 snaps in relief of George Kittle last week but was limited to a mere 25 yards on two targets.
Over/Under: 48.6 (5th-highest)
Win Prob: 49ers 54% (10th-highest)
Lineup locks: Alvin Kamara
The Saints’ low-volume offense has allowed Jameis Winston to produce a pair of top-five fantasy outings but also three finishes outside of the top 20. He’s a deep-league streaming option against Seattle. Last week, Geno Smith threw for 209 yards and a score — also taking five sacks and losing a yard on his only carry — in his first game subbing for Russell Wilson. He, of course, isn’t a recommended fantasy starter.
The Seattle backfield has more questions than answers right now with Chris Carson out, but Rashaad Penny is expected back this week. Penny was ahead of Alex Collins before his injury, but Collins has played well lately, including a 20-101-1 rushing line last week. Collins is also questionable this week due to injury, which adds another layer of confusion to the mix. At worst, Collins will be on the flex radar if he plays this week, but we could also see some combination of Penny, DeeJay Dallas and Travis Homer. Avoid them all where possible.
DK Metcalf (6-58-0) and Tyler Lockett (2-35-0) both disappointed in Smith’s first start, but it’s also extremely hard to consider benching them, especially with six teams on their bye. Michael Thomas isn’t ready to return, so Marquez Callaway (fresh off a 4-85-2 receiving performance on eight targets in Week 5) is back on the WR3/flex radar.
Gerald Everett found the end zone in Week 1, but he hasn’t cleared either five targets or 54 yards in any game. He’s a low-ceiling TE2.
Over/Under: 43.1 (12th-highest)
Win Prob: Saints 72% (6th-highest)
Teddy Bridgewater has delivered a high floor (four top-15 fantasy weeks), but also a low ceiling (no top-10s) and is a streaming option against a Browns defense allowing the most QB fantasy points over expected this season. Baker Mayfield is out this week and Case Keenum will replace him. Mayfield had not been a viable fantasy starter in his own right (one top-15 fantasy outing), so his replacement is well off the fantasy radar, especially against a Denver defense allowing the third-fewest QB fantasy points and fewest completions.
With Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt sidelined, D’Ernest Johnson is the next man up at running back for Cleveland. Expect Johnson to handle most of the carries, with John Kelly mixing in and Demetric Felton handling a healthy chunk of the passing-game work. Johnson is an RB2 option (even against a Denver defense allowing the fewest RB fantasy points over expected). Kelly and Felton are too risky to start.
Melvin Gordon III has 70 carries and 16 targets this season, whereas Javonte Williams has 65 carries and 15 targets. The committee backfield has allowed Gordon one top-20 fantasy week (Week 1) and has left Williams without a single top-24 outing. The Browns have allowed the second-fewest RB fantasy points to running backs, so consider both as flex options.
Courtland Sutton leads the NFL in air yards (871), sits second in expected touchdowns (3.7) and has been targeted at least eight times in four of his last five games. Especially with Jerry Jeudy still out, Sutton (who has three top-10 fantasy outings under his belt) is in the WR1 mix. His running mate, Tim Patrick, has yet to produce a top-20 fantasy week, but has proven to be a fine flex option with 12-plus points in five of six games.
Odell Beckham Jr. has yet to post a top-25 fantasy week, but his targets are actually up from last season (7.2, up from 6.7) and Denver has allowed the ninth-most WR yards. Beckham remains on the WR3 radar despite his lack of big games. If Jarvis Landry is activated from IR this week, he’ll also be on the WR3 radar. Landry had seven touches for 84 yards and a score in Week 1 — his only full game this season. Donovan Peoples-Jones has produced a 9-171-2 receiving line on 11 targets over the last two weeks, but can only be considered a flex option if Landry is out.
Noah Fant has delivered four top-10 fantasy weeks this season, with either a touchdown or 62 yards in each of those games. Cleveland has allowed the third-fewest TE fantasy points and a league-low 16 TE receptions, but the schedule has been extremely light. Fant has seen 10-plus targets in two of his last three games and is a solid TE1.
Over/Under: 46.2 (9th-highest)
Win Prob: Broncos 52% (12th-highest)