Every year around this time, I run through the various head-coaching opportunities that might come open at the end of the NFL season. Sometimes, these jobs stay filled. Other times, different jobs unexpectedly pop open. Usually, though, we can run through somewhere around seven to eight openings or expected openings toward the end of December.
That’s not the case this year. The Jaguars job is available after Urban Meyer was let go earlier this month, and the Raiders have an interim coach after they parted ways with Jon Gruden, but there aren’t many other spots looming as clear and obvious opportunities. I was able to get to seven, but even that was a bit of a stretch, with a few likely leaning toward a return from their existing coach. It’s possible we see only two or three new head coaches this offseason.
Let’s run through openings and rank them in terms of their desirability for a coach with options. Last year’s top pick was the Chargers, who had just about everything an incoming coach would want: a desirable location for players and coaches alike, relatively patient ownership, a talented roster and a franchise quarterback on a rookie deal in Justin Herbert. Picking the No. 1 job this year was far more difficult.
It’s easier to start with the job that is least desirable heading into 2022, although a recent winning streak might make it harder for this team to move on from its first-year coach:
Jump to a team:
Bears | Broncos
Jaguars | Panthers
Raiders | Texans | Vikings
Pros: Draft capital
Cons: Uncertainty at quarterback, executive/ownership mess, lack of talent
It seemed like a foregone conclusion that the Texans would be one-and-done with David Culley as their coach, but they have heated up over the past two weeks. It was one thing when they completed their season sweep of the Jaguars in Week 15, but Culley’s team outplayed the playoff-hopeful Chargers on Sunday in a 41-29 victory. Houston finishes with games against the 49ers and Titans, and if it can win one of those two, it will actually finish with more wins in 2021 than it had with a full season from Deshaun Watson in 2020.
Of course, the specter of Watson hangs over the franchise and its future plans. It seems unlikely that Watson will ever play for the Texans again, owing to his trade request, subsequent holdout and the allegations of sexual assault or inappropriate behavior levied against him by 22 women. It’s crass to speculate on a Watson trade before the criminal and civil inquiries into his behavior have been completed, but it’s only realistic to point out that the franchise is basically on hold until his future is resolved. It’s unclear whether that will be before the 2022 league year begins, and if Watson remains in limbo this winter, it will impact whether the Texans can find someone willing to take on the difficult task Culley faced this year.
Beyond Watson’s situation, there’s little in the cupboard for a new coach to build around. General manager Nick Caserio spent the offseason signing competent, low-ceiling veterans to fill out the roster. Many of those players will be free agents after the season. With the salary cap projected to return north of $200 million in 2022, I suspect that the veterans the Texans targeted this year will sign for more competitive teams this time around. They have had just nine players on rookie contracts play at least 500 snaps this season, and three of those players — Justin Reid, Geron Christian and Jacob Martin — are unrestricted free agents this offseason. Rookie quarterback Davis Mills has looked better the past two weeks, but his 32.6 Total QBR shouldn’t stand in the way of the Texans upgrading in the offseason.
On top of all that, the situation above the coaching staff in Houston feels like a minefield. Caserio was imported from the Patriots to run football operations. Former New England team chaplain Jack Easterby has a meaningful-but-undefined role within the organization. Owner Cal McNair has shown virtually no evidence of competency since inheriting the team from his father. I took many issues with the roster moves Bill O’Brien made during his time running personnel with the Texans, but it was bizarre to see McNair back the former Penn State coach for two offseasons before firing O’Brien four games into the 2020 season. Any coach who interviews for this job is going to look over his shoulder and wonder whether he’s about to lose a political struggle or get kicked out if Josh McDaniels is willing to leave New England.
There’s a scenario in which this becomes a desirable job. The Texans will have a top-five pick in the 2022 NFL draft. At some point, if they do trade Watson, they would likely add multiple first-rounders, which would make their future more appealing. As it is, Houston has all of the trappings of an expansion team without the optimism or the fresh start.
Pros: Young quarterback in place, patient ownership, cap space
Cons: Missing draft capital, roster depth
While it seems like the Matt Nagy era is coming to a close, the Bears have been surprisingly feisty over the past couple of weeks. Cornerback Jaylon Johnson suggested earlier this month that some players were starting to go into the tank, but we’ve seen this team show a real effort in the primetime loss to the Vikings and Sunday’s win over the Seahawks in Seattle. It would be tough to argue that the Bears are good, but they’re fighting with absolutely nothing whatsoever to play for in late December.
I don’t think that will save Nagy’s job, but it might make this job more appealing to a coach who thinks he won’t have to clear out quite as many players. Whether it’s general manager Ryan Pace or a new GM accompanying this coach, the Bears will have work to do. Top wide receiver Allen Robinson is a free agent, as are three of the starters from a much-maligned offensive line. They have one wide receiver (Darnell Mooney) and one offensive lineman (Teven Jenkins) who should be inked in as starters in 2022, and Jenkins has made two career starts. This might appeal to a coach who wants to build an offense to his desired specifications, but there’s a lot of work to be done.
Of course, whoever takes over will need to believe he can help mold quarterback Justin Fields into a superstar. The Bears traded away their first-round pick in 2022 to move up for Fields, whose first season was uneven. He deserves some of the blame for his struggles, but it’s hard to argue that he got much help from the players around him or with Nagy’s scheme. The Bears are realistically committed to Fields for the next two seasons, so whomever they hire can’t count on getting a chance to work with a new quarterback, even if Pace was somehow allowed to sign, draft or acquire five different starting passers.
I’m excited about Fields’ potential — and a tough schedule has masked a league-average performance by Sean Desai’s defense this season — but there’s still a lot to worry about with this job. Years of trading up in the draft have left the Bears with a thin roster, as Pace’s aptitude in finding useful players in the middle rounds of drafts has been countered by a lack of picks. They will be down their first- and fourth-round selections in 2022, and they feel light years behind the Packers in the NFC North. Things can move fast if Fields excels in Year 2, but there’s a staggering amount of work to be done to give him a reasonable chance of success.
Pros: Quarterback, veteran pieces, desirable location
Cons: Lack of young talent, depth
After squeaking out narrow victories over the Browns and Broncos in consecutive weeks, the Raiders are back in the playoff hunt and hold what could be critical head-to-head tiebreakers. With the Chargers losing unexpectedly to the Texans, the Raiders control their own destiny. Beat the Colts in Indy and the Chargers at home, and they will make it back to the postseason for just the second time in 19 seasons.
If they do advance to the playoffs, there’s a reasonable chance interim coach Rich Bisaccia would take over the job on a permanent basis. It’s not the worst thing in the world for them to maintain continuity, and there’s plenty of coaching experience on staff, although Bisaccia’s game management as a first-time head coach has been distressingly bad. The Raiders have been outscored by 61 points in Bisaccia’s 10 games in charge, so their 5-5 record with him at the helm is generous.
On the other hand, the Raiders controlled their own destiny this time a year ago and lost in heartbreaking fashion to the Dolphins. If they slip up again, the chances of Bisaccia retaining the job decrease dramatically. And if they do look outside the organization for a coach (and/or general manager), the most important question revolves around what that new regime wants to do at quarterback.
Derek Carr is not the problem with the team, as the veteran ranks 10th in Total QBR with two weeks to go, but team owner Mark Davis & Co. have to decide whether they want to set their sights higher. Carr will be entering the final year of his five-year, $125 million extension in 2022, a point at which teams almost always either give their quarterback a new deal or make a move to replace them. He has earned that new contract, but if the Raiders get an itch to go after someone such as Russell Wilson, they might see what they can get for the veteran on the trade market.
Whether Carr stays or gets replaced with a higher-ceiling passer, this job could appeal to some coaches. Las Vegas is an attractive destination for free agents, and Nevada has no state income tax. Davis has generally given his coaches and general managers a long leash, although the P.F. Chang’s enthusiast cut bait on Jack Del Rio and Reggie McKenzie to install Gruden as football czar in 2018.
As I wrote about after Gruden was fired, though, there’s not a ton to like here in terms of the roster. The Raiders lack for young talent; they have a pair of building blocks on either side of the line in Maxx Crosby and Kolton Miller, but their other rookie contract contributors generally play marginal positions like running back, slot receiver and box safety — and not always all that well. Veteran stopgaps such as Casey Hayward have helped the roster, but this team isn’t one draft or free-agent period away from seriously competing with the Chiefs in the AFC West.
Pros: Young talent
Cons: Lack of quarterback, missing draft capital
I would be surprised if the Panthers fired Matt Rhule two years into a seven-year pact, but they have to consider their options. They’re 5-10. Since starting 3-0 with victories over the Jets, Saints and Texans, they have won two games: a 6-point win over a Falcons team that ranks 32nd in DVOA, and a blowout victory over the Colt McCoy-led Cardinals. They’ve been outscored by 107 points during this 2-10 stretch.
There are teams that post ugly records but look competitive for most of their seasons. The Panthers were competitive earlier in the year, but their games have turned into farces over the last 1 1/2 months. After quarterback Sam Darnold went on injured reserve, they first turned to P.J. Walker and then signed Cam Newton off the street; with Newton struggling, Rhule has fired offensive coordinator Joe Brady and turned to a QB rotation. Darnold made his return in Sunday’s loss to the Buccaneers and took just under 63% of the snaps.
The organization committed $18.9 million to Darnold in 2022 when it picked up his fifth-year option. The ill-fated decision to trade for him and that cap figure doesn’t mean that they’re locked into him as their starter for 2022, but the Panthers will either have an expensive backup or be forced to eat significant money (or trade away draft picks) if he’s not their guy. Carolina is down second- and fourth-round picks from the Darnold trade and a third-rounder from their move to acquire corner CJ Henderson from the Jags. The team has extra picks in the fourth and fifth rounds, but it would happily take that Darnold trade back if it could.
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Coach Matt Rhule compares Jay-Z’s rise to fame as a way to tell the Panthers that they are building for success.
What the Panthers do have, though, is a young core. A lot of teams would be thrilled to start with DJ Moore, Taylor Moton, Brian Burns, Jeremy Chinn, Jaycee Horn and Christian McCaffrey, although the latter has missed most of the past two seasons with injuries. Haason Reddick has been a Pro Bowl-caliber edge and should be brought back this offseason, possibly via the franchise tag. With the Bucs’ and Falcons’ starting quarterbacks toward the end of their careers and the Saints transitioning from the Drew Brees era, there might be a window for the Panthers to emerge in the NFC South.
Of course, that young core hasn’t been enough to convince quarterbacks that their futures should be in Carolina. Matthew Stafford reportedly didn’t want to be dealt there. It’s unclear whether Russell Wilson would be interested in a move to Charlotte. There’s no clear path for the Panthers to get the sort of true franchise quarterback they’ve craved since David Tepper bought the team. Rhule’s decisions at quarterback and on offense have left a lot to be desired, but unless a new coach can somehow get the Panthers access to a quarterback (such as Wilson) they wouldn’t otherwise have, they’ll probably give the former Baylor coach a third year.
Pros: Young quarterback, patient ownership, cap space
Cons: Rotted culture, lack of talent
It might seem weird to list patient ownership as a virtue for the Jaguars given that Jacksonville fired Urban Meyer less than one season into his tenure, but given how embarrassing his behavior, decision-making and on-field product were, you could make the argument that 13 games were more than he deserved. Since Shahid Khan took over as team owner in 2011, the Jaguars have given Meyer less than a season and Mike Mularkey one full year, but Gus Bradley got three-plus years at the helm, while Doug Marrone enjoyed four seasons after being named as permanent coach.
Those four coaches have produced a total of one winning season in 10 tries, which is one of the reasons this job will be difficult. The culture in Jacksonville has been a mess for most of the last decade. Bradley’s positivity and a flood of middle-tier free agents didn’t move the needle, and although the Jags nearly made it to Super Bowl LII during the first year of Tom Coughlin’s reign as lead decision-maker, the authoritarian clashed with many of the young stars on the roster afterward. The only starter left from the 2017 defense is Myles Jack. Meyer’s year in control … well, you saw what happened.
All of this makes what happens next for the Jaguars so important. They need to hire someone who can identify what the organization’s culture needs to be and how to get there. Doing so would seemingly point toward going after a coach with experience in establishing a successful culture elsewhere, but hiring a football czar and program-builder like Coughlin or Meyer hasn’t worked. A younger coach capable of identifying with his players would make sense, but the Jags need someone with experience working in a successful culture who can translate that beyond their current organization.
Coaches will want to come to Jacksonville, of course, because of the presence of Trevor Lawrence. None of the other jobs offer a quarterback anywhere near as promising as the rookie No. 1 overall pick, even if his debut season has been a mess. There has been enough in the way of individual positives, and significant enough coaching malpractice throughout the offense, to suggest that he isn’t the one to blame, though. Coaches typically want to tie their professional futures to a quarterback with All-Pro potential. Lawrence is that guy on this roster.
The problem is that there isn’t much around Lawrence. The first-round picks the Jags have made since landing cornerback Jalen Ramsey in 2016 haven’t been impact contributors. Running back Leonard Fournette was disappointing before being released and joining the Bucs last year. Taven Bryan’s fifth-year option was declined, and the anonymous defensive tackle is likely to leave after 2021. Josh Allen is a solid edge rusher, but cornerback CJ Henderson and pass-rusher K’Lavon Chaisson — both first-round picks in 2020 — have been disasters; Henderson was traded to the Panthers earlier this season, while Chaisson has two sacks in two seasons. Running back Travis Etienne, a teammate of Lawrence’s at Clemson and Jacksonville’s other first-round pick last April, has missed all of his rookie season with a Lisfranc injury.
Etienne will be back for 2022, but James Robinson might not be ready to start next season after tearing his Achilles against the Jets on Sunday. Young players such as Laviska Shenault and Jawaan Taylor have looked worse in their second seasons than they did as rookies. The defense ranks 30th in DVOA and allowed the Jets to run for 273 yards on Sunday. There’s a lot of work to be done here, which has seemingly been the case for most of the past decade. The good news is that the bar for improvement is very, very low.
Pros: Young roster, cap space
Cons: Ownership uncertainty, lack of quarterback
It looked like the Broncos were making an unexpected playoff push when they blew out the Lions in Week 14 and made it to 7-6, but narrow losses to the Bengals and Raiders have dropped their playoff chances from 27% to 0.3%, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. The difference between Denver making it as the 7-seed and missing out on the postseason might have been as thin as Teddy Bridgewater suffering a concussion against the Bengals, given that Drew Lock has produced 16 points on the 12 drives he has started since. What’s done is done, though.
As it goes, that might be enough to end Vic Fangio’s tenure as Broncos coach. The former Bears defensive coordinator has developed a number of talented young players during his time in Denver, most notably Justin Simmons and Patrick Surtain, but that hasn’t translated into consistently excellent play. The Broncos rank 21st in DVOA on defense this season, down from 13th-placed finishes in both 2019 and 2020. Fangio’s team will finish with a better record after going 5-11 last season, but with new general manager George Paton finishing his first season with the team, it would hardly be a surprise if he were given the opportunity to hire his own coach.
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Vic Fangio expresses that he is aware of the uncertainty surrounding his job status in Denver but doesn’t let it bother him.
That coach will take over a team crying out for a major upgrade at quarterback. Denver is teeming with talent on offense, especially after locking up Tim Patrick and Courtland Sutton with extensions. Javonte Williams might be the Year 2 breakout back of 2022. Albert Okwuegbunam has emerged as a useful tight end alongside Noah Fant. Jerry Jeudy has flashed while recovering from his high ankle sprain. There’s so much potential here, and while Bridgewater did a better job of moving the ball than Lock, it’s too easy to imagine a scenario in which Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson come in and this offense spikes overnight.
The next coach doesn’t necessarily have to be an offensive mind, but it would help if the Broncos hired someone who might convince Russell Wilson to waive his no-trade clause or push Rodgers to head to Denver. The playmakers on offense will appeal to the various hot offensive coaches who are on the market, but it’s different without a quarterback in the mix. Lock is not viable, and Bridgewater is a free agent.
The other concern with the Broncos is still ownership. It remains to be seen whether the battle between members of the Bowlen family for control of the franchise has been resolved, even after a lawsuit was dismissed in July. There’s still a chance that the team will be sold to a third party, which would create more uncertainty and the possibility that a new owner would want to hire his or her own people to run the organization. If stable ownership and a quarterback were in place, this would be one of the more desirable jobs in the NFL.
Pros: Talent on roster, patient ownership, veteran quarterback
Cons: Cap flexibility, veteran quarterback
I’m including veteran quarterback as both a pro and a con as a bit of a joke, but I suspect that Kirk Cousins might be a blessing for some coaches and a hindrance to others. His numbers are surprisingly impressive this season, as he ranks in the top four in passer rating, adjusted net yards per attempt and touchdown-to-interception ratio. I would only be honest in telling you that there aren’t many people in the NFL who perceive him to be that caliber of quarterback, though, and with a $45 million cap hit in 2022, the Vikings will be paying him as if he were an MVP candidate.
If they do decide to move on from longtime coach Mike Zimmer and/or general manager Rick Spielman, the first thing the new regime will have to do is solve the Cousins conundrum. Trading him would free up $35 million in desperately needed cap space, but the move would also leave them with rookie third-round pick Kellen Mond as the starting quarterback.
What follows next seemingly depends on what the Vikings do at quarterback. If they are moving on from Cousins and rebuilding, there are other veterans who don’t need to be along for the ride. They could shop Adam Thielen, Danielle Hunter and Eric Kendricks. Dalvin Cook’s future with the team might be uncertain given the pending lawsuit for alleged assault and battery. If the Vikings are going to blow up the team, they might realistically move forward and head into a serious rebuild.
From another perspective, a new coach might lean into this veteran core. The 7-8 Vikings are still in the playoff mix and have had 14 of their first 15 games decided by eight points or fewer, tying them for the single-season NFL record. Zimmer’s game management hasn’t exactly been the stuff of legend, and a new coach might think improving on special teams and better decision-making could be enough to push them into the postseason in 2022.
If that’s the case, re-signing Cousins would be the move. Doing so would reduce his cap hit, although that would simultaneously come with locking him in as the starting quarterback for two or three more seasons. That alone might be enough to sour some portion of an embittered fanbase on a new coach, although others would put more of the blame on Zimmer’s defense.
Leaving Cousins aside, any new Vikings coach would need to either be a defensive mind or hire someone who can develop young talent on that side of the ball. Zimmer did that for years, but disappointing draft picks and investments on the offensive side of the ball have left them relying on free agents this season. Patrick Peterson, Sheldon Richardson, Everson Griffen and Xavier Woods are all unrestricted after the season, while longtime starter Anthony Barr will see his contract voided.
Either way, the Vikings have a lot to offer a possible new coach. Zimmer is a better coach than some frustrated fans might think, but he has made it eight seasons while winning a total of two playoff games. Coaching candidates will notice that and value the Minnesota job accordingly. The Jags might have Lawrence, but the Vikings have enough on their roster to compete as early as 2022. Unless Zimmer can sweep the Packers and push this team back on a trajectory toward the postseason, coaches might view an opening in Minnesota as the most desirable job on the market.