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Friday’s jobs report will be released to a closed stock market—that’s only occurred 12 times since 1980

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Good Friday is next week and markets will be closed as per usual. However, what will be unusual is that the closure of financial exchanges in the U.S., and some other parts of the world, comes as the government is slated to release a key report on employment in the middle of a pandemic.

Why is the stock market closed while federal data are being released? That is because Good Friday, this year on April 2, isn’t a federal holiday.

It’s a fairly rare occurrence for the government to release a major piece of data as market participants aren’t able to react to it.

And it is only happened 12 times since 1980, according to Dow Jones Market Data, with the last time occurring on 2015, and before that it happened on 2012 and 2010.

Year Dates that nonfarm-payrolls have been released on Good Friday
1980 April 4
1983 April 1
1985 April 5
1988 April 1
1994 April 1
1996 April 5
1999 April 2
2007 April 6
2010 April 2
2012 April 6
2015 April 3
2021 April 2 (scheduled)
Source: Dow Jones Market Data

The jobs report is arguably the granddaddy of economic reports, outside of GDP, but its significance has been amplified by the pandemic, particularly as market participants seek more evidence on the magnitude of the rebound a year into one of the worst public health crisis in a century.

The latest jobs report will come as investors are unclear about the degree to which the labor market and/or the economy could fully recover, or even overheat, potentially compelling the Federal Reserve to act quickly to tamp down out-of-check inflation, with vaccine rollouts and some $1.9 trillion in fresh fiscal aid have helping to buttress the economy.

Fed boss Jerome Powell has tried to pacify jittery markets by emphasizing that the central bank will adopt a go-slow approach to normalizing policy, which itself is forecast to be years away.

National Securities chief market strategist Art Hogan told MarketWatch that it may be a good thing that the jobs report comes as the market is closed.

“Having the weekend to digest this news and calibrate what this means for the economic expansion, that may be a good thing for the market,” Hogan said.

A year ago, U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by 663,000 in March, while the unemployment rate jumped to a 26-year high of 8.5% from 8.1%.

The 2021 jobs report for March is expected to show a gain of 655,000 based on some estimates, after payrolls data showed that unemployment fell to 6.2% as 379,000 jobs were added in February, marking the biggest such gain in four months.

Some time to pause for financial markets may be warranted, Hogan says, because the economy still has a long way to go to achieve a healthy recovery.

“We still have maybe nine million people out of the labor force. We are going to need some blockbuster levels to get to pre-pandemic levels,” the analyst said, estimating that the economy would have to average some 750,000 jobs a month to achieve post-COVID levels.

“It would take us two years, so we really need to start ratcheting up those numbers,” he said.

On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
+1.39%,
the S&P 500 index
SPX,
+1.66%,
the Nasdaq Composite Index
COMP,
+1.24%
and the small-capitalization Russell 2000 index
RUT,
+1.76%
finished sharply higher, following a choppy week of trading that ended with a late-session flourish.

To be sure, it will be hard to say how robust trading action might be on the Monday after Good Friday, because a number of global exchanges will be closed in observance of Easter Monday.

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Business

Stocks Drop Despite Improved Jobs Data

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U.S. stocks remained under pressure on Thursday after fresh data indicated further recovery in the labor market.

The S&P 500 fell 0.8%, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 1.2% a day after the tech-heavy benchmark retreated almost 1.7% a day earlier. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was also down, falling almost 300 points.

Investors’ optimism has been muted in recent days by mixed signals from different parts of the economy. The government’s Covid-19 relief spending and the rollout of vaccines is helping spur economic growth. That has led to a surge in consumers’ demand for products.

But there are signs that the global rebound may be slowed by an extension of Covid-19 lockdowns and growing constraints in the supply chain for crucial products such as vaccines and electronic chips. Fresh stimulus checks have also prompted concerns that inflation will rise sharply as the economy recovers, which has curbed appetite for both government bonds and technology stocks.

“From here, you could have in aggregate flattening markets. We’re going to be looking for a new narrative,” Daniel Morris, chief market strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management. “Growth could recover, value could wait, and then on the surface nothing happens. I have modest expectations for the market until we get a sense of what the next catalyst is.”

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Business

Why Did GameStop Stock Price Fall? Its Earnings Report Mattered After All.

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GameStop shares were down 20.2%, at $145.05, in midday trading.


Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images


GameStop

stock was falling fast on Wednesday after the company’s fiscal fourth-quarter results disappointed analysts. There’s also another elephant in the room: The company is considering selling more stock, which could dilute its shares.

GameStop stock (ticker: GME) closed down 33.8%, at $120.34. The S&P 500 index fell 0.6%, while the

Dow Jones Industrial Average

ended flat.

In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, GameStop said it has been evaluating whether or not to increase the size of its previously announced $100 million at-the-market stock-sale program. The company had announced the ATM program in December, with Jefferies acting as the sales agent. The company said it didn’t sell stock as its valuation surged.

GameStop stock received a mix of downgrades, price target cuts, and raises from analysts following the report. “Many on Wall Street have wondered why GameStop has not done an ATM transaction to take advantage of the elevated share price,” Telsey Advisory Group analyst Joseph Feldman wrote. “The answer may be that its balance sheet is in great shape, with cash and cash equivalents of $635MM (incl. restricted cash of $110MM) and debt of $363MM at the end of 2020. The new commentary seems to be a signal that an ATM transaction could be on the way.”

Heading into Tuesday, Feldman had the highest price target listed by FactSet. He lowered his to $30 from $33, calling the event “anti-climactic.” On the flip side, Jefferies analyst Stephanie Wissink raised her target by 1,066% to $175. That’s the new Street-high, in case there was any doubt.

Wissink argued the moves by Chewy co-founder and GameStop board member Ryan Cohen to transform the company into more of a technology firm warrant a completely different valuation method. The company’s earnings release was paired with another trio of hires with e-commerce backgrounds, including

Amazon

alum Jenna Owens as its next chief operating officer.

Wissink wrote that she moved from basing her target on earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or Ebitda, to a sales multiple that factors in a shift to e-commerce.

She also makes the point that GameStop has the potential to participate in the rise of non-fungible tokens, or NFTs, and the hosting of shoppable content streams.

“As a result, we expect store closures to persist & sales to transfer to dot com,” Wissink wrote. “Total revs may come down, but value per dollar of sales should increase if non-retail streams are realized.”

S&P Global Ratings analysts Mathew Christy and Andy Sookram wrote in a note on Wednesday that they believe the turnaround will involve sizable execution risks and possibly a material increase in its capital investment.”The recent increase and volatility in GameStop’s share price have not affected our fundamental view of its business or the risks the company faces,” they wrote. “However, we note the potential financial flexibility afforded by its improved equity market standing if it chose to raise additional capital to reposition its business or reduce its debt.”

BofA Global Research analyst Curtis Nagle maintained his $10 price objective and Underperform rating. He notes that while GameStop’s adjusted earnings per share of $1.34 beat his estimate for $1.22, he notes that the beat was driven by a large tax credit during the quarter. The company’s Ebitda came in short of his expectations by 66%.

“We continue to be very skeptical on GME’s efforts to address its long standing issue of digital disintermediation and the fact that its core market in new and pre-owned physical console gaming is shrinking at a rapid pace,” Nagle added. “GME also called out leveraging its existing digital assets like its PowerUp rewards program but this has seen declining engagement for years.”

Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter lowered his rating on GameStop to Underperform from Hold, but raised his price target to $29 from $16. While he still thinks GameStop is well-positioned to benefit from the new consoles from

Sony

and

Microsoft,

he says the short squeeze has spiked the stock to “levels that are completely disconnected from the fundamentals of the business.”

“Our downgrade isn’t a reflection of our opinion of company management, which remains very high; rather, it appears that the ‘real’ value of GameStop shares (the price willing buyers are prepared to pay in the open market) vastly exceeds the ‘fundamental’ value we believe investors expecting a financial return can reasonably expect,” he wrote.

Write to Connor Smith at connor.smith@barrons.com

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Business

Stocks End Lower Amid Decline in Tech Shares

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average gave up early gains Wednesday even though investors piled back into economically sensitive sectors on bets that the U.S. economy will continue to recover.

The index of blue-chip stocks ended the day near flat, down less than 0.1%, as companies ranging from American Express to Chevron to Caterpillar showed relative strength.

The S&P 500 however declined 0.6%, adding to losses it endured Tuesday. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell more sharply, its losses accelerating in afternoon trading. The technology-heavy index had dropped 2% by the 4 p.m. ET close of trading.

Markets have seesawed this week as investors have continued to assess the implications of a recent climb in bond yields, which, despite edging down this week, surpassed 1.7% this month for the first time in more than a year. Money managers are also assessing the valuations on stocks after the major indexes climbed over 70% since the pandemic-fueled rout last March.

“We are now one year into this rally: We’ve seen a massive decline and a massive rally, and my sense is that markets are just going to pause for breath from here,” said Brian O’Reilly, head of market strategy for Mediolanum International Funds. “Gains are going to be much harder to come by for the rest of the year.”

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Business

Turkish Lira Plunges After Erdogan Fires Central-Bank Chief

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Turkey’s currency tumbled almost 8% on Monday, putting it on course for its biggest single-day selloff since 2018, following the abrupt ouster of the central-bank governor last week.

The lira fell to as low as 8.280 a dollar from 7.219, before regaining some ground to trade at about 7.7865 a dollar, according to FactSet. Turkey’s stocks also plunged.

The turmoil comes after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Friday unexpectedly fired Naci Agbal, the central-bank governor who had repeatedly raised interest rates in an effort to tame inflation since his appointment in November. Foreign investors say the move renewed concerns that the central bank has lost its independence from political influence, diminishing policy makers’ credibility and sapping appetite for Turkish assets.

The new governor, Sahap Kavcioglu, Sunday tried to reassure markets by saying taming inflation is the bank’s main objective. He also pledged to foster economic stability by lowering borrowing costs and bolstering growth. Money managers are concerned that he might allow the currency to depreciate, and accept elevated inflation levels, to lower interest rates.

“We’re really trying to gauge what the level of commitment to the lira is,” said Simon Harvey, senior foreign-exchange market analyst at broker Monex Europe. “We know in Turkey that interest rates are politically sensitive.”

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Business

Tech Shares Fall as Bond Yields Rise

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U.S. stocks fell Thursday as shares of technology companies and other high-growth stocks succumbed to another selloff in the government bond market.

Investors appeared to rethink the implications of improving growth projections, pulling the stock market into the red a day after the S&P 500 closed at a fresh record and the Dow Jones Industrial Averaged finished above 33,000 for the first time.

They initially cheered comments from Federal Reserve Chairman

Jerome Powell

who reiterated the central bank’s commitment to supporting financial markets until the economy fully recovers.

But the Fed also increased its median projections for growth and inflation based on the latest round of stimulus doled out by Congress, leading investors to re-evaluate the broader implications that level of expansion will have on pockets of the market, analysts and money managers said. That sparked another round of selling of government bonds, pushing yields to their highest level in 14 months.

“This morning, the markets woke up and decided if the Fed is going to keep policy so loose, they want higher risk premium,” said Michael Matthews, a fixed-income fund manager at Invesco.

Stock futures had started heading lower overnight after the 10-year Treasury yield, a key benchmark for lending costs, breached 1.7% for the first time since January 2020.

The S&P 500 was recently down 0.5%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slid 1.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average held up better, rising about 50 points to stay above 33,000.

Apple,

Amazon.com

and Google parent Alphabet all fell at least 1%. Electric car maker Tesla fell further, shedding more than 3%.

The higher yields mean borrowing costs for businesses and individuals will go up, so investors have been selling pricey tech stocks that look less valuable in a rising rate environment to load up on shares of companies poised to benefit from an economic rebound.

“It is all about inflation expectations: The fact that we are getting inflation expectations beyond the Fed’s target is spooking bond markets,” added Edward Park, chief investment officer at Brooks Macdonald.

Investors also contended with mixed economic data, suggesting that the economic recovery remains uneven.

The number of Americans applying for first-time unemployment benefits rose to 770,000 in the week ended March 13, from 725,000 in the week prior. While filings for jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs, has fallen from its peak last year, they remain at historically high levels.

Meanwhile, a manufacturing index from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve hit its highest level in more than three decades, suggesting activity continues to expand.

“The thing to watch is the employment numbers, and central banks are all watching that,” said Mr. Matthews. “The Fed and all central banks have decided it is better to run the economy hot, to aid the recovery, to get as low unemployment as they possibly can.”

On Thursday, investors looked to sectors like banks, airlines and energy companies, which could benefit more when social and business activity picks up. Shares of financial stocks in the S&P 500 rose 1.7%, as investors priced in the likelihood that banks could earn more on the loans they issue. Industrial companies also advanced, adding 0.8% in recent trading.

Tech stocks, meanwhile, slumped 1.7%, while the communication and consumer discretionary sectors fell around 1% each. Energy stocks, consumer staples, utilities and real-estate companies also fell.

Looking ahead, bond investors are betting that the Fed will raise interest rates within the next two years, despite data Wednesday that showed most policy makers still expect to maintain ultralow interest rates through 2023. Seven of 18 Fed officials anticipated lifting rates in 2022 or 2023, up from five in December.

Overseas, the pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 ticked up 0.2%.

In Asia, most major benchmarks closed higher. China’s Shanghai Composite Index added 0.5%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rallied 1.3%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 declined 0.7%.

Write to Caitlin Ostroff at caitlin.ostroff@wsj.com and Michael Wursthorn at Michael.Wursthorn@wsj.com

Copyright ©2020 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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Business

Stock Futures Signal a Pause Ahead of Fed Meeting

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U.S. stock futures wavered as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s latest economic outlook and any signals on interest rates and bond purchases for the next few years.

Futures tied to the broad S&P 500 index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were relatively flat, suggesting the benchmarks may be choppy after the market open. Both gauges posted tepid declines Tuesday, a day after closing at records. Contracts linked to the technology-heavy Nasdaq-100 edged 0.3% lower Wednesday.

Federal Reserve officials, who are scheduled to release their latest economic projections at 2 p.m. ET, are likely to say they expect the labor market and inflation to rebound faster than they anticipated in December. The central bank is broadly expected to reaffirm its commitment to ultralow interest rates and bond purchases for now.

Money managers have already started pricing in a rise in inflation, leading to a selloff in government bonds, and are betting that interest rates will start climbing by the end of next year. They have also started exiting stocks that look to be too richly valued after last year’s rally.

“Markets across the board are expensive today, and that is pinned on central bank support,” said Hugh Gimber, a strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. “So this whole market is very, very sensitive to changes in central bank policy.”

A dot plot of Fed policy makers’ projections could show that some officials expect a first rate increase in 2023, Mr. Gimber said. “But the key will be communication: How will they balance this modestly brighter outlook while signaling that the Fed is still there to support markets?”

In bond markets, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note edged up to 1.644%, from 1.622% Tuesday. Yields rise as the price falls. The yield has climbed sharply from this year’s low of 0.915% on Jan. 4.

Cues and signals from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at his press conference, which starts at 2:30 p.m., will be key for investors.

“This is about less dovish forecasts but still dovish communication, so Powell is really walking a tightrope,” Mr. Gimber said. “Powell will be using his comments to prevent an overreaction in the bond market.”

Investors have in recent weeks started reshaping their portfolios as economic prospects are bolstered by vast sums of government stimulus spending and the coronavirus vaccination rollout. That has driven bets on the beaten-down and economically sensitive sectors of the market, while a rally in highflying tech stocks has weakened.

Traders worked on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday.



Photo:

Colin Ziemer/Associated Press

“Markets have basically run about as far as they can in anticipating the 2021 recovery. For the most part, the market has seen what it wants to see,” said Tim Courtney, chief investment officer at Exencial Wealth Advisors. “It is all based on the interest rates right now: We are entering into an economic recovery and rates are normalizing and moving higher and that will favor those economically sensitive companies.”

Ahead of the meeting, investors will also parse data on U.S. housing starts for clues on the strength of the economy. The figures, which are due at 8:30 a.m. ET, are expected to show new residential building projects fell slightly in February from the previous month.

Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil, fell 0.8% to $67.87 a barrel.

In overseas markets, the Stoxx Europe 600 edged 0.4% lower.

In Asia, most major indexes were little changed by the close of trading. South Korea’s Kospi index fell 0.6%, while the Shanghai Composite, Hang Seng and Nikkei 225 indexes all ended the day largely flat.

Write to Will Horner at William.Horner@wsj.com

Copyright ©2020 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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Business

Asian markets decline ahead of Fed comments

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TOKYO — Asian shares were lower Wednesday as world markets cautiously awaited the U.S. central bank’s latest comments on the economic outlook.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225
NIK,
-0.02%
gave up early gains and slid 0.2% while South Korea’s Kospi
180721,
-0.64%
retreated 1%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200
XJO,
-0.47%
dipped 0.7%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng
HSI,
+0.03%
declined 0.2%, while the Shanghai Composite
SHCOMP,
-0.03%
fell 0.4%. Benchmark indexes in Singapore
STI,
+0.22%,
Taiwan
Y9999,
-0.60%
and Indonesia
JAKIDX,
-0.50%
slipped as well.

Investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve’s latest economic and interest rate projections, expected later in the day. Economists expect Fed Chair Jerome Powell will try to convince jittery financial markets that the central bank can continue providing support without igniting higher inflation.

Those worries have recently pushed bond yields higher, sapping buying demand for shares.

The Fed meeting “carries the potential to either allay or heighten some of the market’s recent concern with regard to the soaring bond yields,” said Jingyi Pan, senior market strategist at IG in Singapore.

Wall Street capped a choppy day of trading with indexes closing mostly lower. Losses by banks, industrial stocks and companies that rely on consumer spending, including cruise line operators, outweighed gains by Big Tech and communication services stocks.

The S&P 500
SPX,
-0.16%
dropped 0.2% to 3,962.71. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
-0.39%
lost 0.4% to 32,825.95. The Nasdaq
COMP,
+0.09%
bucked the trend, benefiting from the rally in technology stocks and rising 0.1%, to 13,471.57.

Investors weighed new economic data Tuesday that showed Americans cut back on spending last month, partly due to bad weather in wide parts of the country that kept shoppers away from stores, and partly due to December and January stimulus payments running out.

“We’re still in the midst of getting back to a more normal environment,” said Jason Pride, chief investment officer of private wealth at Glenmede. “Given the lumpiness of government stimulus payments, we’re going to see numbers jumping around.”

In energy trading, U.S. benchmark crude
CLJ21,
+0.63%
fell 9 cents to $64.71 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It lost 59 cents to $64.80 on Tuesday. Brent crude
BRNK21,
+0.54%,
the international standard, lost 15 cents to $68.24 a barrel.

In currency trading, the U.S. dollar
USDJPY,
+0.14%
rose to 109.12 Japanese yen from 108.99 yen.

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Business

GameStop Stock Tumbles, but Analyst Still Sees Squeeze Potential

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GameStop shares fell mid-morning Tuesday.


Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images


GameStop

stock dropped again shortly after the market opened on Tuesday. While some short sellers appeared to cover their bearish bets in recent weeks, a short-selling expert says he still sees plenty of squeeze potential.

Shares were down 19% to $178.12 around 10:30 a.m. Such levels are still many multiples higher than the stock’s one-year low of $2.57.

Ihor Dusaniwsky, managing director at short-selling analytics firm S3 Partners, told Barron’s on Monday that his firm estimates about 8.98 million GameStop shares (ticker: GME) were recently sold short, about 16% of shares available for trading.

Dusaniwsky said over the last month, his firm has seen about 7.5 million shorts covered, meaning bearish investors bought shares to cover their bets. The bulk came over the past week, when 4.6 million shares were covered.

“GME shorts are going through a short squeeze, and the stock continues to be on of the top stocks in our short squeeze potential metric, which means the squeeze is probably going to continue if its stock price remains at these levels or higher,” Dusaniwsky added.

The company’s shares rocketed higher last week following a company announcement that Chewy co-founder Ryan Cohen has been chairing a board committee aimed at transforming the retailer into a technology business. Cohen joined the board with two associates in January, kicking off GameStop’s parabolic ascent.

GameStop said it will report fiscal fourth-quarter results on March 23. Analysts expect adjusted earnings of $1.35 a share, up from $1.27 a share in the prior fiscal fourth quarter, according to FactSet. Of course, analysts are far more bearish on GameStop than the retail investors posting on Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum. The highest price target listed by FactSet is $33, while the mean target is $14.64.

While near-term results could cool off the GameStop rally, those excited about the stock are looking far into the future. If the company provides upbeat color on its e-commerce efforts and the impact of the new gaming consoles, it could make a quarterly miss more palatable.

Write to Connor Smith at connor.smith@barrons.com

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Business

Betting on the post-pandemic boom? Bank of America has 17 stock recommendations

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Here’s one possible all-clear signal. COVID-19 is no longer a “tail risk” for investors, the first time since February 2020, says Bank of America in its latest fund manager survey. A tail risk is an unlikely event that could cause outsize losses or gains.

Scroll down for that chart.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting begins on Tuesday, and investors will be on the lookout for any hawkish signals that could take some steam out of stocks. The premarket is showing some mixed action after some disappointment over retail sales.

But many remain stuck into the idea of a post-pandemic boom, at least in the U.S. as vaccinations roll out.

Read: Value stocks are making a comeback. Don’t get left behind, these analysts say

That has kept the records coming for the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
+0.53%
and S&P 500
SPX,
+0.65%
and those stocks geared toward a recovery. Our call of the day comes from strategists at Bank of America, who offer up 17 stocks to buy for the three R’s they see coming — recovery, reflation and rerating.

Strategists Jill Carey, Savita Subramanian and Ohsung Kwon say the economy has reached the mid-cycle phase, where inflation typically is strongest. In prior such phases, excluding the technology bubble, small-caps have outperformed larger ones, and value has beaten growth.


Uncredited

The Bank of America team says there are two reasons to like those stocks: many of the companies they highlight are still not expensive, and active funds aren’t positioning for that rising inflation, with heavier exposure to mega than smaller caps.


Uncredited


Uncredited

Onto the stocks (nearly half are small-to-midcap companies)…

Alcoa
AA,
-1.49%
— BofA has a share price target $37 for the miner. Aluminum prices could go either way, but global demand growth is a plus for Alcoa.

Axalta Coating Systems
AXTA,
-0.70%
— Share price target £37 for the global coatings group. The pace of automobile recovery will be key and a stronger dollar and lower raw material costs could be a boost.

Broadcom
AVGO,
+4.34%
— Share price target $550. Risks for the semiconductor company include sensitivity to U.S.-China trade relations and competition in networking, smartphone and other markets.

Hess
HES,
-1.40%
— Share price target $95. Among the energy company’s risks are oil and gas prices, as well as slowing developments in drilling.

Marriott International
MAR,
+2.24%
— Share price objective $150. Economic weakness and worse-than-expected spending by businesses and consumers are among the risks for the hospitality company.

Walt Disney
DIS,
-0.20%
— $223 price objective for the entertainment giant that has “best in class assets.” Downside risks include slowing ESPN growth from people deciding not to keep a cable television subscription, weaker consumer confidence, and low theme park attendance. Also watch out for potential film flops.

As for the rest, they like CNH Industrial
CNHI,
+0.59%,
Comcast
CMCSA,
+0.77%,
Emerson Electric
EMR,
-1.39%,
Herc Holdings
HRI,
+1.98%,
Knight-Swift Transportation
KNX,
-0.67%,
Occidental Petroleum
OXY,
-4.34%,
Parker Hannifin
PH,
+0.75%,
Principal Financial
PFG,
-0.45%,
Robert Half International
RHI,
-1.11%,
Union Pacific
UNP,
-0.66%
and World Fuel Services
INT,
+0.08%.

The chart

Here’s that “tail risk” chart from the latest BofA monthly fund manager survey. Bigger risks are higher-than-expected inflation and a “tantrum” in the bond market.


Uncredited

The markets

Dow and S&P futures
YM00,
-0.06%

ES00,
+0.08%
are flat, while Nasdaq-100 futures
NQ00,
+0.52%
are up. European stocks are higher
SXXP,
+0.62%.
It was also an up day for Asian markets. Elsewhere, oil
CL.1,
-1.39%
and the dollar
DXY,
-0.06%
are weak and bitcoin
BTCUSD,
-2.98%
is backing further away from the $60,000 hit over the weekend.

The buzz

Retail sales dropped a bigger-than-expected 3% in February, though they surged a revised 7.6% in January. Import prices rose 1.3%. That data will be followed by industrial production and a National Association of Home Builders index. Aside from the Fed meeting kickoff, investors will also be watching the outcome of a an auction of 20-year Treasury bonds.

Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater, the world’s biggest hedge fund firm, declares investing in bonds as “stupid” and investors should stick to a “well-diversified portfolio.”

AstraZeneca
AZN,
+0.72%

AZN,
+3.37%
shares are higher after Jefferies upgraded the drug company to buy from hold. AstraZeneca has been in the hot seat as several European countries suspend its COVID-19 shots over reports of blood clots from inoculations.

Finnish telecoms group Nokia
NOKIA,
+0.52%

NOK,
+1.90%
is cutting up to 10,000 jobs to save $716 million over two years.

A team from the U.S. government’s highway safety agency is headed to Detroit to investigate a “violent” crash after a Tesla
TSLA,
+2.05%
vehicle drove under a semitrailer, leaving two people critically injured.

Random reads

Office nostalgia — Redditers swap coworkers-from-hell stories.

When a hacker gets all your texts for $16.

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