Tag Archives: betting

Sports

Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray overtakes Patrick Mahomes as betting favorite for NFL MVP

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Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray has overtaken Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes as the consensus favorite to win NFL MVP at U.S. sportsbooks.

Murray, at +550, is the favorite to win the Associated Press’ regular-season MVP award at Caesars Sportsbook. Mahomes is next at +600, followed by Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen at +800. Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady and Green Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers are each +900.

Mahomes had been the consensus favorite since the spring, when sportsbooks first began posting odds on MVP. But while Mahomes and the Chiefs are 2-2, the Cardinals are off to a 4-0 start behind Murray, who has attracted more bets to win the MVP than any other player at Caesars Sportsbook since the season began.

Murray entered the season at 25-1 to win MVP, but he quickly moved into the top tier of favorites and was 10-1 after Week 1.

Murray is completing 76.1% of his passes and has accounted for 12 touchdowns, while Mahomes has accounted for 15 touchdowns. Both quarterbacks have each thrown four interceptions this season.

Other quarterbacks are on the rise at sportsbooks, including Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford, who has gone from +2,000 to +1,100 at Caesars, and Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott, who has gone from +1,200 to +1,100.

The largest bet Caesars has taken on its MVP market so far is $20,000 on Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson at +1,500.

A quarterback has won the award 13 of the past 14 seasons.

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Business

Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ Is Betting Against ARK’s Cathie Wood

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Text size

ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood.


Courtesy Photograph

Michael Burry, the gutsy hedge-fund manager whose life was told in the Oscar-winning biopic “The Big Short,” is taking aim at star stock picker Cathie Wood.   

In a filing on Monday, Burry disclosed that his firm, Scion Asset Management, held bearish put options against 235,500 shares of Woods’ actively managed

ARK Innovation exchange-traded fund

(ticker: ARKK) at the end of the second quarter. The new position was valued at almost $31 million, according to the quarterly filing, which is required for hedge funds above a certain size.

A put contract gives Scion the right to sell shares in the ETF at a previously agreed price before a certain date. If ARK Innovation’s shares drop below the threshold before the options expire, the hedge fund can sell the shares for a profit.

Burry isn’t the only investor betting that the price of ARK innovation will fall. The volume of put options traded on ETF is rising, while the short interest on the ETF recently reached a record high. There is even a Short ARKK ETF in the filing that, if approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission, would allow retail investors—those who can’t sell shorts or trade options directly—to make bearish bets against Woods. 

Wood’s company, ARK Invest, took in billions of new assets last year from spectacular performances by some of her active ETFs focused on high-growth innovation-driven stocks. Several were among 2020’s best-performing funds, with returns of more than 100%.

But the funds have struggled to maintain that momentum this year. Many of their stockholdings are trading at lofty valuations that are betting on huge expected growth in the future. As inflation flares up and interest rates rise, however, the current value of the growth companies’ future cash flow is being diminished. The ARK Innovation ETF is now 6% down for the year, with $500 million asset outflows in the past month.

Burry has been cautioning about the unsustainable valuations of some ARK holdings for months. He already holds big bearish positions against electric car maker

Tesla

(TSLA), one of the top investments in ARK ETFs. Monday’s filing shows that Burry increased his bearish puts on Tesla to nearly 1.1 million shares, up from 800,100 shares in the first quarter. Those bets are worth $731 million.

Tesla shares have declined 2.8% year to date, while ARK Innovation has lost 6% in value. Still, both are trading at much higher levels compared to the start of 2020, up by 675% and 134%, respectively.

Burry became famous for successfully betting against the housing bubble, which eventually touched off the financial crisis in 2008. His story is just one of several told by Michael Lewis in his book “The Big Short” and later made into a movie.

The financier was also one of the first big-name investors to bet on

GameStop

in 2020, which led to a buying frenzy in the videogame retailer’s stock earlier this year. But Burry sold his entire stake before GameStop became a meme stock on Reddit, missing out on the 2,000% surge.

Write to Evie Liu at evie.liu@barrons.com

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Entertainment

Jay-Z Applying for Sports Betting License in NY State

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Jay-Z‘s latest hustle is big-time gambling … he’s signed on with some heavy hitters in a bid to open a sportsbook in NY, and the move could make him a pioneer in the billion-dollar industry.

TMZ has learned Jay’s name is on one of the applications submitted to the NY Gaming Commission requesting approval for an online sports betting license. Sources with direct knowledge tell us he’s partnering with his buddy Sixers partner Michael Rubin to form Fanatics Sportsbook, and they’ve teamed with Kambi … a company that makes software used for online sports gambling.

Jay and Rubin’s group is up against stiff competition … including companies like FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook and WynnBET.

We’re told NY state will approve at least 2 of the 6 groups, and it’s possible Jay-Z will be the secret weapon that puts his group over the top. Not only is he the most prominent public figure applying for a license, but he’s the only Black applicant. While the other corporations might have Black employees or execs, they aren’t the actual licensees … whereas Jay would be.

You’d think the guy who rapped about his “Empire State of Mind” would at least have a leg up in his home state — but there’s probably a lot of politics at play too. The Gaming Commission has until December to make the call.

Sports gambling pulled in roughly $1.55 BILLION nationally last year, so it’s easy to see why Jay and Rubin want in on the action. Our sources say their Fanatics Sportsbook will be headquartered in NYC, and Jay’s already planning to hire a diverse staff — race and gender-wise — as he’s done with Roc Nation.

BTW, Jay-Z previously held gaming licenses in Nevada and New Jersey when his 40/40 Clubs were open in Vegas and Atlantic City, but he closed those down many years ago.

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Sports

Jon Rahm clear-cut betting favorite at 7-1 to win The Open

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Oddsmakers have Jon Rahm, fresh off his first win at a major, as the clear-cut favorite at the 149th Open this week at Royal St. George’s.

Rahm is the favorite at 7-1 at Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill. No other golfer has single-digit odds.

Bryson DeChambeau is next at 14-1, followed by Dustin Johnson at 15-1. Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele and Brooks Koepka are each 16-1. Jordan Spieth is 18-1, and Justin Thomas is 20-1.

Rahm has been in top form since early June. He had a commanding 6-shot lead heading into the final round at the Memorial Tournament, before being forced to withdraw after testing positive for COVID-19. Upon returning from quarantine, he won the U.S. Open, his first major, and finished seventh last week at the Scottish Open.

The betting action on The Open at U.S. sportsbooks is relatively evenly divided, with Rahm and Koepka receiving the most support. More money has been wagered on Rahm than any other golfer at Caesars Sportsbook at William Hill, while Koepka has attracted the most support at PointsBet and BetMGM.

“The two guys that I’m most concerned about right now are [Victor] Hovland and [Louis] Oosthuizen,” Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill U.S., said in a company release Monday. “Both are playing really well, and we’ve got good liability on them.”

Oosthuizen is 30-1, and Hovland is 40-1.

Weather forecasts at Royal St. George’s in Sandwich, England, call for temperatures in the low 70s, with winds around 10-15 mph for the early rounds and calming for Sunday.

Darren Clarke won the last Open at Royal St. George’s in 2011. He was one of only four players who finished under par. Clarke is 500-1 this week.

Shane Lowry, who won the 2019 Open, is 33-1. The 2020 Open was canceled because of the coronavirus pandemic.

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Business

OPEC, Allies Agree to Boost Output, Betting on Demand Rebound

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OPEC and an alliance of other top oil producers agreed to boost their collective production by more than two million barrels a day over coming months, betting on resurgent demand as they and the rest of the world assess the economic consequences of the pandemic’s trajectory.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and a group of other big producers led by Russia agreed to boost output in May by 350,000 barrels a day, and by the same amount again in June, according to delegates. They agreed to then increase output by another 450,000 barrels a day in July. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, agreed to start easing separate, unilateral cuts of one million barrels a day that it put in place earlier this year. It plans to end those cuts altogether by the end of July, delegates said.

The agreement Thursday between the two groups, together called OPEC+, was a compromise between Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader, and Russia. Saudi Arabia had sought to maintain cuts, skeptical of a quick return in oil demand during the pandemic. Russia, meanwhile, has said the world already needs more oil to feed resurgent economies in many regions.

The decision is another sharp swerve in OPEC’s zigzag oil strategy over the past year, underscoring the difficulty among forecasters in the group—and elsewhere—to call the start of a sustained global recovery from the pandemic.

Ahead of the meeting between the two groups, Saudi Arabia had initially backed plans to keep production unchanged, delegates said. The decision to hike output “was a complete U-turn,” one of them said. Throughout the pandemic, the group has appeared to shift sharply from optimism to pessimism over the prospects of a post-pandemic economic recovery—and a strong rebound in oil demand. Saudi Arabia has pushed to stay cautious, while Russia has been eager to lift output.

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Business

Betting on the post-pandemic boom? Bank of America has 17 stock recommendations

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Here’s one possible all-clear signal. COVID-19 is no longer a “tail risk” for investors, the first time since February 2020, says Bank of America in its latest fund manager survey. A tail risk is an unlikely event that could cause outsize losses or gains.

Scroll down for that chart.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting begins on Tuesday, and investors will be on the lookout for any hawkish signals that could take some steam out of stocks. The premarket is showing some mixed action after some disappointment over retail sales.

But many remain stuck into the idea of a post-pandemic boom, at least in the U.S. as vaccinations roll out.

Read: Value stocks are making a comeback. Don’t get left behind, these analysts say

That has kept the records coming for the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
+0.53%
and S&P 500
SPX,
+0.65%
and those stocks geared toward a recovery. Our call of the day comes from strategists at Bank of America, who offer up 17 stocks to buy for the three R’s they see coming — recovery, reflation and rerating.

Strategists Jill Carey, Savita Subramanian and Ohsung Kwon say the economy has reached the mid-cycle phase, where inflation typically is strongest. In prior such phases, excluding the technology bubble, small-caps have outperformed larger ones, and value has beaten growth.


Uncredited

The Bank of America team says there are two reasons to like those stocks: many of the companies they highlight are still not expensive, and active funds aren’t positioning for that rising inflation, with heavier exposure to mega than smaller caps.


Uncredited


Uncredited

Onto the stocks (nearly half are small-to-midcap companies)…

Alcoa
AA,
-1.49%
— BofA has a share price target $37 for the miner. Aluminum prices could go either way, but global demand growth is a plus for Alcoa.

Axalta Coating Systems
AXTA,
-0.70%
— Share price target £37 for the global coatings group. The pace of automobile recovery will be key and a stronger dollar and lower raw material costs could be a boost.

Broadcom
AVGO,
+4.34%
— Share price target $550. Risks for the semiconductor company include sensitivity to U.S.-China trade relations and competition in networking, smartphone and other markets.

Hess
HES,
-1.40%
— Share price target $95. Among the energy company’s risks are oil and gas prices, as well as slowing developments in drilling.

Marriott International
MAR,
+2.24%
— Share price objective $150. Economic weakness and worse-than-expected spending by businesses and consumers are among the risks for the hospitality company.

Walt Disney
DIS,
-0.20%
— $223 price objective for the entertainment giant that has “best in class assets.” Downside risks include slowing ESPN growth from people deciding not to keep a cable television subscription, weaker consumer confidence, and low theme park attendance. Also watch out for potential film flops.

As for the rest, they like CNH Industrial
CNHI,
+0.59%,
Comcast
CMCSA,
+0.77%,
Emerson Electric
EMR,
-1.39%,
Herc Holdings
HRI,
+1.98%,
Knight-Swift Transportation
KNX,
-0.67%,
Occidental Petroleum
OXY,
-4.34%,
Parker Hannifin
PH,
+0.75%,
Principal Financial
PFG,
-0.45%,
Robert Half International
RHI,
-1.11%,
Union Pacific
UNP,
-0.66%
and World Fuel Services
INT,
+0.08%.

The chart

Here’s that “tail risk” chart from the latest BofA monthly fund manager survey. Bigger risks are higher-than-expected inflation and a “tantrum” in the bond market.


Uncredited

The markets

Dow and S&P futures
YM00,
-0.06%

ES00,
+0.08%
are flat, while Nasdaq-100 futures
NQ00,
+0.52%
are up. European stocks are higher
SXXP,
+0.62%.
It was also an up day for Asian markets. Elsewhere, oil
CL.1,
-1.39%
and the dollar
DXY,
-0.06%
are weak and bitcoin
BTCUSD,
-2.98%
is backing further away from the $60,000 hit over the weekend.

The buzz

Retail sales dropped a bigger-than-expected 3% in February, though they surged a revised 7.6% in January. Import prices rose 1.3%. That data will be followed by industrial production and a National Association of Home Builders index. Aside from the Fed meeting kickoff, investors will also be watching the outcome of a an auction of 20-year Treasury bonds.

Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater, the world’s biggest hedge fund firm, declares investing in bonds as “stupid” and investors should stick to a “well-diversified portfolio.”

AstraZeneca
AZN,
+0.72%

AZN,
+3.37%
shares are higher after Jefferies upgraded the drug company to buy from hold. AstraZeneca has been in the hot seat as several European countries suspend its COVID-19 shots over reports of blood clots from inoculations.

Finnish telecoms group Nokia
NOKIA,
+0.52%

NOK,
+1.90%
is cutting up to 10,000 jobs to save $716 million over two years.

A team from the U.S. government’s highway safety agency is headed to Detroit to investigate a “violent” crash after a Tesla
TSLA,
+2.05%
vehicle drove under a semitrailer, leaving two people critically injured.

Random reads

Office nostalgia — Redditers swap coworkers-from-hell stories.

When a hacker gets all your texts for $16.

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Sports

Vegas Golden Knights End Relationship With Sports Betting Picks Service

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Credit:

LAS VEGAS, NV – JANUARY 26: the Vegas Golden Knights against the St. Louis Blues on January 26, 2021 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/NHLI via Getty Images)

A pro sports team’s relationship with a tout service didn’t last as long as a broken up late night drunken marriage at the Lucky Little Wedding Chapel. 

On Saturday, roughly 72 hours after they announced it, the Vegas Golden Knights cut off their relationship with UpickTrade, a Mexico-based website that sells gambling picks. 

“The Vegas Golden Knights have ended their sponsorship agreement with UpickTrade,” the club said in a statement. “The organization will not have additional comments on the matter at this time.”

When the deal was announced, the team said the sponsorship made them the “official sports pick service partner of the Knights,” which caught the entire industry off guard. 

The Action Network reached out to a Vegas Golden Knights official who declined to comment publicly. So too did the NHL, who would have had to have approved the sponsorship category, but didn’t field questions about the mystery. 

What’s most shocking about the partnership is that if any team would know about the sleezy land of touts, it should be a team based in Vegas.

Would the service ever pick against the Knights? What happens when the pick service tells everyone to bet the Knights and they lose? No one knows the answers to these questions, since it’s been mum after the half-baked deal that could only happen in the NHL.

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Sports

San Francisco 49ers’ QB: Betting odds on Watson, Darnold and Garoppolo

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The new NFL league year begins in a little more than a month, but the excitement is already here for the offseason.

This year’s quarterback market is unprecedented, with several starters from 2020 who could be wearing a different uniform next season. The Detroit Lions have already sent Matthew Stafford to the Los Angeles Rams for Jared Goff and draft picks. We could also see some more significant trades over the next few months involving more quarterbacks.

Deshaun Watson remains the best of the bunch. The 25-year-old has officially requested a trade from the Houston Texans, who are adamant that they will not trade Watson anytime soon. Watson holds a no-trade clause, so we could see a long stalemate between the two parties.

The New York Jets and new head coach Robert Saleh hold the No. 2 overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft and could move on from 2018 third overall pick, Sam Darnold.

San Francisco seems content moving forward with current starter Jimmy Garoppolo but has been linked to virtually every quarterback on the market since the season ended.

The betting lines for where some QBs will land this offseason have the Niners listed as options.

Here are where oddsmakers have the 49ers in the running for Watson (courtesy of Bovada):

Texans +200
PreDolphins and Jets +350
Panthers +400
49ers +500
Broncos +800
Raiders andPatriots +1400

For Darnold (courtesy of Draft Kings):

Jets +150
Colts +400
Panthers and Texans +500
Broncos +1000
49ers and WFT +1100
Bears +1200
Saints and Steelers +1400

Bovada also has odds up for where Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott and Carson Wentz will play in 2021.

Wilson — who voiced his displeasure with the Seahawks’ ability to protect him on the field — is a long-shot to be moved. Bovada has him staying in Seattle as the most likely outcome and has San Francisco listed at +2200.

Prescott has been at an impasse with the Dallas Cowboys regarding his contract situation for more than a year. Bovada has him at -1000 to re-sign with the Cowboys while the Niners come in at +2000. The 49ers aren’t listed among the teams who have the best odds to land Wentz.

The most likely scenario is that Garoppolo will be the starter in 2021. BetMGM has odds available on where Jimmy G will play next season, and it’s no surprise to see San Francisco as the favorite:

49ers (-400)
Patriots (+450)
Vikings (+750)
Broncos (+800)
Bears (+800)
Colts (+1000)
Texans (+1100)

Let’s not forget that oddsmakers had the 49ers as the favorites to land Stafford and had the Rams way down the list prior to the trade:

It would take a massive haul to get Watson out of Houston, while Darnold won’t net nearly as much in any trade. Matt Maiocco of NBC Bay Area wrote an interesting piece about why no current player on the Niners roster should be untouchable when it comes to landing a franchise QB.

Maiocco is well plugged-in with the 49ers and says not even Nick Bosa, George Kittle or Fred Warner should be off-limits. The chances are that one of them would have to be included with some high draft picks to land a talent like Watson.

As of now, Garoppolo returning is listed as the favorite with good reason. San Francisco will still be in a position to contend with all of the high-end talents around him on the roster. We saw Jimmy G lead a healthy squad to a 13-3 finish in 2019 and be within seven minutes of winning the Super Bowl.

But if John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan decide they’re willing to try and meet the asking price for Watson, it should make for an interesting few weeks.

What do you think would be a fair trade proposal to land Watson? Who would you be willing to part with out of Bosa, Kittle or Warner, if it meant Watson would be the 49ers’ QB for the next decade?



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Business

Companies are giving up on the United States and betting big on China

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Direct investment in the US by foreign companies plummeted 49% to $134 billion last year, according to a report released Sunday by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. By contrast, foreign direct investment in China grew by 4% to $163 billion in 2020.

2020 marked the first year in history that foreign direct investment in China overtook that of the US, according to the UN. China is now the world’s largest recipient of foreign companies’ investments.

Although Covid-19 was a large factor in foreign direct investment tumbling in the US — and most places around the world — the drop-off in foreign companies’ American investments began well before the pandemic.

After hitting a high of $440 billion in 2015, according to the US Commerce Department, foreign investment in the US has been on a sharp downward slide. Former President Donald Trump’s go-it-alone trade policies hurt foreign investment — particularly from China, which represented the sharpest drop in US investment over the past several years. Growing economic uncertainty around the globe also contributed to the decline.

Last year, decline in foreign direct investment into the US was most prominent in wholesale trade, financial services and manufacturing, the report said. International mergers and acquisitions, as well as sales of US assets to foreign investors, fell by 41%.

Meanwhile, China’s explosive economic growth — and quick recovery from the pandemic — helped foreign investment there soar. China’s economy grew 2.3% last year, when most of the world’s major economies shrank. The country enforced stringent lockdown and population tracking policies intended to contain the virus, and set aside hundreds of billions of dollars for major infrastructure projects to fuel economic growth.
China’s ability to control the spread of the virus “helped stabilize investment after the early lockdown,” the report noted.
Foreign direct investment to India has similarly skyrocketed, from less than $25 billion in 2014 — before Prime Minister Narendra Modi took power — to $57 billion last year, according to the UN report. Much of that growth was brought about by policies that enabled global brands like Ikea and Uniqlo to open up stores, as well as Modi’s signature “Make in India” campaign to grow the country’s manufacturing base.

That helped India’s foreign direct investment soar 13% last year.

Most economies weren’t so lucky. Foreign direct investment in the United Kingdom and Italy fell by almost 100%. Russia’s foreign direct investment fell 96%, Germany’s sank 61% and Brazil’s plunged by 50%. Australia, France, Canada and Indonesia — all among the top foreign direct investment recipients in 2019 — also fell by double digits.

Overall, foreign direct investment tumbled 42% last year to the lowest level since the 1990s — and 30% below the lowest level reached during the 2008-2009 global financial crisis.

The attractiveness of the US as a safe and robust place for foreign companies to invest has been one of the more powerful driving forces behind America’s economic growth over the past several decades. But the UN said the circumstances stopping the flow of foreign direct investment to the US and other countries will remain in place this year.

“The effects of the pandemic on investment will linger,” James Zhan, director of UNCTAD’s investment division, said in a statement. “Investors are likely to remain cautious in committing capital to new overseas productive assets.”

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