The sell-off of Russian debt associated with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s campaign on Ukraine and the sanctions thatensued have created a window for a new type of arbitrage that some in the finance world are gobbling up, seeing it as easy money.
The idea is what’s known as a negative-basis trade, or purchasing dirt-cheap Russian government or corporate bonds along with credit-default swaps, which act as insurance on the potential default of a borrower.
Data from the website MarketAxess shows that Russian sovereign debt traded at a volume of $7 billion between February 24 and April 7, up from $5 billion in the same period in 2021 — a 35% uptick.
Russian bonds are trading furiously, said Philip M. Nichols, an expert on Russia and social responsibility in business and a professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. “There’s a lot of speculators that are buying up these bonds that have been severely downgraded and are on the verge of becoming junk,” he said.
Nichols says he’s getting constant calls from analysts interested in the whether the potential trade makes sense. “The spread on Russian sovereign debt is astonishing right now,” he said. “They’re making an unusual amount of money with respect to the volume.”
The cost to insure Russian debt grew to 4,300 basis points on April 5, up from 2,800 the previous day.
At the same time bond rates fell drastically — with bonds maturing in 2028 trading at just $0.34 on the dollar. That means it could cost just over $4 million to insure $10 million of Russian securities, The Economist reported.
Hedge funds like Aurelius Capital Management, GoldenTree Asset Management and Silver Point Capital have increased their exposure to Russian markets, mostly by purchasing corporate bonds, the Financial Times reported in late March.
US financial institutions like JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs are facilitating these trades, connecting clients who want out of their positions with hedge funds that have a higher risk tolerance and less of a moral quandary about purchasing Russian debt.
“This is Wall Street,” said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. “It doesn’t surprise me that they saw some sort of a loophole they could exploit to make money.”
JPMorgan representatives say they are acting as middlemen, simply looking to aid clients. “As a market-maker, we have been helping clients reduce their risks and manage their exposures to Russia in the secondary markets. None of the trades violate sanctions or benefit Russia,” said a spokesperson.
If clients wanted to quickly unload their exposure to Russia they could look to Russian oligarchs who would happily buy back sovereign bonds, said Robert Tipp, chief investment strategist and head of Global Bonds at PGIM Fixed Income. Selling Russian debt to US hedge funds keeps any accrued interest out of Russian hands.
The trades are legal and lucrative, said Nichols, but highly speculative and subject to large swings based on news of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and further sanctions.
It also illustrates an alarming disconnect between Wall Street and the actual state of the global economy: Typically, investors would base their valuation of Russian debt on whether or not it will be repaid, and the likelihood that it would be repaid would depend on the strength and durability of the Russian economy.
But that’s not happening. New sanctions by the US Treasury on Tuesday, which blocked Russian access to any dollars they held in American banks, significantly increased the chances that Russia would default on its debt and that its gross domestic product, the main measure of a country’s economic strength, would tumble.
The US Congress voted this week to remove Russia’s most favored nation’s trade status, a major economic downgrade that would pave the way for deeper sanctions and import controls on products essential to Russia, like chemicals and steel.
The removal of that status, said Nichols, would sever Russia’s integration into the global economy. If Wall Street were associated with the real world, he added, it wouldn’t want to be anywhere near Russian debt.
“Russian debt is the province of high risk takers,” said Nichols, “and institutions should probably stay away.”
A spot in the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament will go to either the No. 4 UCLA Bruins (28-7) or the No. 8 North Carolina Tar Heels (26-9) when the teams meet in a East Regional Region bracket matchup. Bookmakers think UCLA will emerge victorious, naming the as 2-point favorites. The action starts at 9:39 PM on Friday at Wells Fargo Center.
UCLA is 20-15-1 against the spread this season compared to North Carolina’s 20-16-1 ATS record. The Bruins have gone over the point total in 19 games, while Tar Heels games have gone over 22 times. The two teams combine to score 152.1 points per game, 9.6 more points than this matchup’s total. UCLA has a 6-4-0 record against the spread while going 9-1 overall over the past 10 games. North Carolina has gone 8-2-0 against the spread and 9-1 overall in its last 10 contests.
Here’s what you need to get ready for Friday’s college basketball game.
North Carolina at UCLA odds, spread and lines
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North Carolina at UCLA odds, spread, & more
Prediction
UCLA 74, North Carolina 70
Moneyline
The Bruins have won 28 of the 32 games they were the moneyline favorite this season (87.5%).
UCLA has a 28-4 record (winning 87.5% of its games) when it has played as a moneyline favorite of -136 or shorter.
Based on this matchup’s moneyline, the Bruins’ implied win probability is 57.6%.
The Tar Heels have entered the game as underdogs 10 times this season and won five of those games.
North Carolina is 5-4 this season when entering a game as the underdog by +114 or more on the moneyline.
The oddsmakers’ moneyline implies a 46.7% chance of a victory for the Tar Heels.
Against the spread
The Bruins score just 1.7 more points per game (73.6) than the Tar Heels give up (71.9).
UCLA is 12-7-1 against the spread and 17-2 overall when scoring more than 71.9 points.
When North Carolina allows fewer than 73.6 points, it is 9-5 against the spread and 14-0 overall.
The Tar Heels score 16.1 more points per game (78.5) than the Bruins allow their opponents to score (62.4).
When it scores more than 62.4 points, North Carolina is 15-12-1 against the spread and 22-7 overall.
UCLA has an ATS record of 16-9-1 and a 23-3 record overall when its opponents score fewer than 78.5 points.
The Bruins have scored a total of 392 more points than their opponents this year (an average of 11.2 per game), and the Tar Heels have out-scored opponents by 230 points on the season (6.6 more per game).
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Over/Under
The average implied total for the Bruins this season is 74.6 points, which equals their implied total in Friday’s game.
So far this season, UCLA has put up more than 72 points in a game 24 times.
The Tar Heels’ average implied point total on the season (77.9 points) is 7.9 points higher than their implied total in this matchup (70 points).
This year, North Carolina has put up more than 70 points in 28 games.
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How to watch UCLA vs. North Carolina
Game Day: Friday, March 25, 2022 Game Time: 9:39 PM ET Live Stream: Hulu
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ATLANTA — The NFL has suspended Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Calvin Ridley indefinitely “through at least the conclusion of the 2022 season.”
NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell made the move Monday afternoon, saying Ridley had bet on NFL games in the 2021 season.
“The activity took place during a five-day period in late November 2021 while Ridley was not with the team and was away from the club’s facility on the non-football illness list,” a news release said.
The NFL said a league investigation found no evidence that inside information was used, and no games were compromised.
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In a letter to Ridley notifying him of his suspension, Goodell wrote:
“There is nothing more fundamental to the NFL’s success – and to the reputation of everyone associated with our league – than upholding the integrity of the game. This is the responsibility of every player, coach, owner, game official, and anyone else employed in the league. Your actions put the integrity of the game at risk, threatened to damage public confidence in professional football, and potentially undermined the reputations of your fellow players throughout the NFL.
“For decades, gambling on NFL games has been considered among the most significant violations of league policy warranting the most substantial sanction. In your case, I acknowledge and commend you for your promptly reporting for an interview, and for admitting your actions.”
The Atlanta Falcons released a statement, saying:
“We were first made aware of the league s investigation on Feb. 9. We have cooperated fully with the investigation since receiving notice and support the league s findings and actions. We are moving forward in the 2022 season with the decision that was made.”
Ridley has to wait until Feb. 15, 2023, to petition for reinstatement. The NFL said he also has three days to appeal his suspension.
Ridley posted a series of tweets in reaction to his suspension:
“I bet 1500 total I don’t have a gambling problem.”
Atlanta Falcons receiver Calvin Ridley was suspended for at least the entire 2022 season for gambling on N.F.L. games last year, one of the harshest penalties a major American sports league has doled out since the N.F.L. rushed to embrace an expansion of legalized wagering on games.
Commissioner Roger Goodell said in a statement on Monday that Ridley, 27, placed bets on N.F.L. games during a five-day period in late November 2021 when he was away from the club to focus on his mental health.
After an investigation, the league “uncovered no evidence indicating any inside information was used or that any game was compromised in any way,” Goodell said in the statement. “Nor was there evidence suggesting any awareness by coaches, staff, teammates, or other players of his betting activity.”
Still, Goodell said the “integrity of the game” is fundamental to the league’s success, and Ridley put that integrity at risk.
Ridley placed three parlay bets between Nov. 23 and Nov. 28 on the Hard Rock Sportsbook mobile app while he was in Florida, according to a person with knowledge of the matter who was not authorized to speak publicly. Genius Sports, which monitors sports betting data for the league, alerted the N.F.L. that a player might be behind those bets. The N.F.L.’s investigation found that Ridley’s bets included a wager on the Falcons to win.
Soon after the N.F.L. announced the suspension, Ridley wrote on Twitter: “I bet 1500 total I don’t have a gambling problem,” later adding that he couldn’t watch football at that point.
He then posted: “I know I was wrong But I’m getting 1 year lol.”
Ridley’s agent, Ben Setas, did not immediately return requests for comment on Monday.
Ridley announced on Oct. 31, 2021, that he would step away from the team because of a mental health issue.
“These past few weeks have been very challenging and as much as I’d like to be on the field competing with my teammates, I need to step away from football at this time and focus on my mental well-being,” Ridley said in a statement posted to his social media accounts. “This will help me be the best version of myself now and in the future.
A four-year N.F.L. veteran, Ridley had his best season in 2020 when he caught 90 passes for 1,374 yards. Last season, he played in just five games. The team exercised his fifth-year option for the 2022 season last spring.
The Falcons said in a statement that they first learned on the league’s investigation on Feb. 9, and that they “support the league’s findings and actions.”
Ridley can appeal his suspension within three days and ask to be reinstated on or after Feb. 15, 2023.
Ridley’s suspension is the first sports gambling-related penalty the N.F.L. has imposed on a player since 2019, when it suspended Arizona Cardinals defensive back Josh Shaw for the remainder of that season. Shaw, who was on the injured reserved list at the time, was suspended for the remainder of the 2019 season as well as the 2020 season. He has not played in the N.F.L. since.
Before Shaw’s suspension, the N.F.L. had not penalized a player for gambling on games in more than two decades.
The most well-known punishments for sports gambling-related infractions in the N.F.L. occurred in 1963 when Pete Rozelle, who was then the commissioner, suspended Green Bay Packers running back Paul Hornung and Detroit Lions defensive end Alex Karras for the entire season for betting on football games.
In 1946, the day before the N.F.L.’s championship game between the Chicago Bears and the Giants, the league’s commissioner, Bert Bell, was told by the assistant district attorney in Manhattan that Giants quarterback Frank Filchock and running back Merle Hapes had been offered $2,500 to throw the game.
Bell said that the police found that the players had not taken any bribes, and so allowed Filchock — who had denied being approached by gamblers — to play. Bell suspended Hapes, who admitted having been asked to throw the game but did not report it to the league. Filchock later admitted to lying to Bell, and he was suspended indefinitely. After Filchock played several seasons in Canada, Bell reinstated him in 1950, and he played in one game that year with the Baltimore Colts.
Since 2018, when the Supreme Court cut down a 1992 federal law that had limited sports betting primarily to Nevada, the thick walls that have long separated the N.F.L. from the gambling industry have crumbled. After decades of opposing sports wagering, the league has now signed major sponsorship deals with casinos, the Raiders play their home games in Las Vegas, and the draft will be held there in April — and the Super Bowl in 2024.
Television broadcasts of N.F.L. games last season were blanketed by advertisements from sports books trying to attract new customers.
In April 2021, the N.F.L. hired Genius Sports to provide “comprehensive integrity services to monitor betting” on all N.F.L. games, and to provide “education programs to ensure the continuation of the N.F.L.’s high standard for integrity.”
The league provides training to more than 17,000 N.F.L. personnel, including workers on game days and stadium employees. The basic message is not to bet on N.F.L. games or pass along inside information about the games. Players are, however, allowed to bet on other sports.
Construction is expected to begin this spring on one of the largest renewable energy projects in New York since Niagara Falls was harnessed for hydropower more than a half-century ago.
By late 2025, a 339-mile high-voltage transmission line is expected to deliver enough hydropower from Quebec’s remote forests to supply about 20% of New York City’s needs. The first electricity will finally flow 17 years after developers set out to bury a power line along the bottoms of Lake Champlain and the Hudson River, assuming they clear one last regulatory hurdle and encounter no further challenges. Opponents still have concerns about the project’s environmental impacts.
When the Rams (13-5) take on the Buccaneers (14-4) in Sunday’s NFC divisional playoff game (3 p.m. ET, NBC and Peacock), a trip to the conference championship game will be on the line. The Rams, who beat the Cardinals in the wild-card round, have aspirations of following the Bucs and playing the Super Bowl in their home stadium. The Bucs, who took care of the Eagles, are hoping to win again in Tampa Bay to keep their repeat hopes alive.
The Rams are led by Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp in Sean McVay’s offense and also feature defensive stars Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey and Von Miller. The Buccaneers remain empowered by the GOAT, Tom Brady, and pride themselves on balance and depth for both sides of the ball.
Who will win the rematch of games in the 2020 and 2021 regular seasons? Here’s how Sporting News sees the late afternoon marquee matchup playing out:
DIVISIONAL ROUND PICKS: Against the spread | Straight up
Rams vs. Buccaneers odds for NFL playoff game
Spread: Buccaneers by 3
Over/under: 48
Moneyline: +130, -154
The Buccaneers have been around field-goal favorites all week, which indicates straight-up home-field advantage in a pick ’em game. The Rams are also a very good road team, which came into consideration. The point total is lower based on the defensive strengths of both teams, despite some potentially explosive offenses.
(betting odds per FanDuel Sportsbook)
Rams vs. Buccaneers all-time series
The Rams hold an 18-9 advantage in 27 meetings, including a classic 11-6 win in the 1999 NFC championship game. They beat the Bucs at home 34-24 in September and also won at Tampa Bay 27-24 in the previous season. The Bucs haven’t beaten them with Brady, last winning in 2019. Brady has beaten the Rams in two Super Bowls with the Patriots.
Three trends to know
—58 percent of spread bettors are liking the Buccaneers are only slight favorites and taking them to handle the number at home.
—69 percent of over/under bettors think the point total below 50 is too low given the potency of both teams passing and running.
—The Rams are 5-5 against the spread and 6-4 straight up in their past 10 games. The total has gone over only four times. The Buccaneers are 7-3 ATS while going 8-2 SU in their past 10 games with the total also going over only four times.
Three things to watch
The Buccaneers’ offensive line injuries
Center Ryan Jensen and right tackle Tristan Wirfs are both hoping to play effectively through the ankle injuries they suffered against the Eagles in the wild-card round. The Bucs need Jensen to help work on Donald inside and Wirfs, their best blocker overall, is a big boost to Brady and the running game. Not having wide receiver Chris Godwin (knee) already hurts, but any shakeup up front would hurt more, given that’s one area of lacking depth.
Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski vs. Jalen Ramsey
The Rams have one elite shutdown cover man in Ramsey, but they have questions elsewhere in the secondary at corner and safety. Ramsey has taken top tight ends as assignments before but his natural matchup outside here is Evans with no Godwin or Antonio Brown about which to worry. Brady needs to get the ball out quickly and into a favorable spot to avoid Donald, Miller and Ramsey. Gronkowski and the short-to-intermediate game will need to be huge should Evans get contained downfield.
Odell Beckham Jr. does it again?
Kupp has been awesome all season and it’s opened things up for the veteran No. 2, which was Robert Woods earlier and now is OBJ. He was a key dual-threat playmaker against the Cardinals, showing some red zone pop more so than big-play reliability. The Bucs’ secondary has a tall order and needs help from the edge pass rushing to force Stafford to rush throws to either top receiver.
Stat that matters
65.8 percent. That was the Buccaneers’ rate of touchdown scoring when in the red zone, which was No. 2 in the NFL behind the 49ers. The Rams finished middle of the pack at 60.8 percent. A couple drives that the Bucs punch in short with Brady vs. the Rams not doing so with Stafford can be a big key.
Rams vs. Buccaneers prediction
Expect this to be a defensive-minded struggle early as both teams are loaded to contain the downfield passing games of Brady and Stafford. Then it will come down to patience in the short passing attack and running games, who can sustain longer drives without making mistakes and not settling for as many field goals. Stafford gives the Rams a lot of confidence to get past this round, but it’s hard seeing Brady and the Buccaneers’ bevy of defensive playmakers losing to a more limited team. There’s no doubt Stafford would be the choice to make a critical giveaway over Brady, which ends up making the difference.
If this game doesn’t scream “under,” I don’t know what would.
It’s the second divisional meeting between these two. Both are starting backup-caliber quarterbacks. Both are ranked 25th or lower in situation-neutral pace. And both teams are 7-3 toward the under this season.
It’s also worth noting that when the total is between 38 and 45.5 points, Bears unders are 26-15 with Matt Nagy, according to our Action Labs data.
Pick: Under 42 (to 41)
Click the arrow to read Raybon’s DFS analysis
Bears-Lions DFS Plays
After playing 85% of Chicago’s offensive snaps in his first game back in Week 9, David Montgomery logged a 95% snap rate last week. He is one of the top plays on the board on this slate against a Lions defense that is ranked 29th in DVOA against the run. Rookie Khalil Herbert has been relegated to a non-factor.
If you’re going to play a QB in the “disgusting” tier — Andy Dalton, Trevor Siemian, Jared Goff/Tim Boyle — my vote would be for Dalton. The Lions defense rates as a bottom-five unit against the pass and is 31st in DVOA on passes more than 15 yards downfield. Despite missing Allen Robinson (doubtful-hamstring), Dalton should still have opportunities to hit Darnell Mooney and Marquise Goodwin for big plays. I’m playing Mooney in cash games on FanDuel at $6,800.
The Lions defense is bad across the board, and against TEs is no exception. They rank 20th in DVOA against the position, which puts Cole Kmet into play on the small slate. Kmet has run a route on 73% of Bears’ dropbacks this season.
With all of that being said, this is still Andy Dalton we’re talking about, so I have no issue punting DST with the Lions in cash games as a short home dog in the slate’s lowest totaled game.
The top play on the Lions — the only other cash-viable play — is D’Andre Swift. The second-year pro has back-to-back 130-plus-yard rushing games and is averaging 19.0 touches for 97.5 yards per game on the season. The Bears are ranked 22nd in run-defense DVOA and 14th on passes to RBs.
The Bears play man coverage at the fifth-highest rate in the league, and the only Lions with double-digit targets versus man coverage this season are Swift (10), Amon-Ra St. Brown (15) and T.J. Hockenson (15). Those are the only members of the Lions passing game I’m touching. Josh Reynolds ran a route on 96% of the Lions’ dropbacks last week and came up catchless, while Kalif Raymond has more success against zone-heavy teams.
This is obviously a spot to fire up the Bears DST.
GPP Plays: QB Andy Dalton, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR Marquise Goodwin, TE T.J. Hockenson, TE Cole Kmet, DST Bears
Raiders at Cowboys Odds
Raiders Odds
+7.5
Cowboys Odds
-7.5
Over/Under
51.5
Time
4:30 p.m. ET
TV
CBS
Odds as of Wednesday and via DraftKings
Raiders-Cowboys Predictions
When the casual fan thinks Cowboys-Raiders, they probably envision a potential shootout, but this is a sneaky under spot.
Both defenses are above-average in generating pressure, with Dallas ranking 11th (26.1%) and Las Vegas ranking 12th (26.0%) in pressure rates. Both will be without a top receiving weapon they had earlier in the year: Amari Cooper (COVID-19) for Dallas and Henry Ruggs (released) for Vegas. And both are on a short week after scoring fewer than 14 points on offense a week ago.
The Cowboys been impressive on defense (fourth in DVOA), so even if the Raiders can’t slow down the Cowboys offense, it’s unlikely the Raiders offense will hold up its end of the bargain as far as the total — the highest of any game in Week 12, save for Bucs-Colts (52.5 points).
Pick: Under 51.5 (to 49.5)
Click the arrow to read Raybon’s DFS analysis
Raiders-Cowboys DFS Plays
With Amari Cooper (COVID-19) out and CeeDee Lamb (questionable-concussion) leaving early early, Michael Gallup ran a route on 96% of Dak Prescott’s dropbacks last week versus Kansas City. With Cooper ruled out, Gallup is a locked-in cash-game play even if Lamb clears protocols on the quick turnaround.
Cedrick Wilson and Noah Brown each ran a route on 65% of Prescott’s dropbacks last week, but Wilson was the clear-cut No. 3 option prior. Given the small slate, he’s a cash-game punt play who would have huge upside if Lamb sits. If Lamb sits, it brings Brown into play as well. Prescott is the QB2 on this slate behind Josh Allen.
Since Blake Jarwin went down, Dalton Schultz has run a route on 114 of Prescott’s 128 dropbacks (89%) — elite usage that rivals Darren Waller’s season-long mark (90%) and bests that of Travis Kelce (85%). Schultz is in a tier below Waller, but a tier above T.J. Hockenson and Dawson Knox on this slate.
The Raiders are a solid 15th in run-defense DVOA but have struggled to contain backs in the passing game, ranking 24th. Ezekiel Elliott was removed from the injury report but has barely out-touched Tony Pollard over the past two weeks, logging 32 touches to Pollard’s 26. Both are in play in GPPs, but Pollard is the better value.
Josh Jacobs is cash-viable against a Cowboys defense that sets up as a run funnel, ranking third in DVOA against the pass but 19th against the run. His pass game usage is also encouragingly ticking up — under interim coach Rich Bissacia, Jacobs’ targets have increased every week, going 1, 3, 4, 5 and 7. That said, I’d expect him to do most of his damage on the ground, as the Cowboys are ranked third in DVOA on passes to RBs.
I’m playing Jacobs in cash if Mark Ingram (knee) is ruled out for the Saints. Given that the Cowboys are strong against Rbs in the passing game, I’m fading Kenyan Drake in this spot.
Hunter Renfrow averages 2.04 yards per route versus zone but only 1.36 against man, so he is more of a high-floor, cash-game play than a high-upside GPP play.
Darren Waller is a high-upside GPP play against a Cowboys defense that is ranked 23rd in DVOA against TEs. Waller is averaging at least 2 yards per route versus both man (2.25) and zone (2.00).
Bryan Edwards has goose-egged twice in the last three games, but this is a good buy-low spot. The Cowboys play the eighth-most man coverage, and while Edwards is averaging just 0.79 yards per route run against zone, he’s way up at 2.67 against man.
Last week, Zay Jones ran 23 routes — most among Raiders WRs — while DeSean Jackson ran 10. Jones is the preferred GPP play of the two.
Derek Carr is my projected QB3 on this slate, but he is 4-5 points behind Allen and Prescott, which puts Carr into play in GPPs by default. I still like the Cowboys DST, though, as they’ve forced the fifth-most turnovers in the NFL (19) through 11 weeks.
Cash Plays: RB Josh Jacobs, WR Hunter Renfrow, WR Michael Gallup, WR Cedrick Wilson, TE Dalton Schultz, DST Raiders
GPP Plays: QB Dak Prescott, QB Derek Carr, RB Ezekiel Elliott, RB Tony Pollard, WR Bryan Edwards, WR Zay Jones, WR Noah Brown (if Lamb sits), TE Darren Waller, DST Cowboys
Bills-Saints Odds
Bills Odds
-6
Saints Odds
+6
Over/Under
45.5
Time
8:20 p.m. ET
TV
NBC
Odds as of Wednesday and via DraftKings
Bills-Saints Prediction
This is yet another under play for me.
On paper, this game features two average offenses — Buffalo is 14th in DVOA, New Orleans is 15th — and two elite defenses, with Buffalo clocking in first and New Orleans in sixth. Both of these teams can stop the run, which should lead to a lot of second- and third-and-longs.
The better offense has to go into a rawkus environment on the road, and both teams should give their best effort on defense as both are desperate for a win.
Pick: Under 45.5 (to 45)
Click the arrow to read Raybon’s DFS analysis
Bills-Saints DFS Plays
On what has the makings of an ugly slate, Josh Allen is the top projected QB on the board against a Saints defense that has slipped to 14th in DVOA against the pass. The Saints are 12th in DVOA versus WR1s, 14th versus WR2s and 32nd against non-WR1/2s, but fifth against TEs, so this is a spot to target Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley and even Gabriel Davis while fading Dawson Knox.
The Bills’ backfield would normally be a fade against the top run defense by DVOA, but on a small slate, it can’t totally be ignored. Last week, Devin Singletary logged 38% of the offensive snaps, while Matt Breida saw 32%, and Zack Moss saw 29%. The play here is Breida, who is trending upward and looks like the team’s most dynamic option. Head coach Sean McDermott talked up Breida this week, and the reason why he’s been active the last two weeks is to revive the team’s struggling ground attack.
Mark Ingram (questionable-knee) is averaging 15.5 carries and 7.5 targets in two starts in place of Alvin Kamara (questionable-knee), who is unlikely to go. If Ingram plays, he can be fired up in cash games against a run-funnel Bills defense that ranks first in DVOA against the pass but 12th against the run. If Ingram is ruled out, Tony Jones Jr. would likely become the lead back and would become one of the top GPP plays on the board. This game is in New Orleans and the Bills have been inconsistent on offense, so the Saints DST is in play in stacks with whomever starts at RB.
Trevor Siemian is in for a brutal matchup against a pissed-off Bills defense ranked first in both pass defense DVOA and pressure rate (30.5%). Although Siemian has thrown multiple touchdown passes in each of his three starts, this could be the spot where the wheels fall off. I’m fading Siemian and firing up the Bills DST instead. Taysom Hill is averaging 10.0 routes, 2.0 carries and 2.0 pass attempts in Siemian’s last two starts. As Hill could relieve Siemian if he struggles, he is the better GPP option of the two.
Tre’Quan Smith has overtaken Marquez Callaway as the Saints’ No. 1 WR, with Deonte Harris playing roughly 50% of the snaps. All three are in for a tough matchup against a Bills defense ranked top-five in DVOA against WR1s, WR2 and non-WR1/2s. However, Buffalo plays man coverage at the 10th-highest clip, which could give opportunities to Smith and Callaway. Smith has two scores on 11 targets versus man, while Callaway leads the Saints with four TDs against man on 19 targets.
New Orleans’ starting TE, Adam Trautman (knee), will miss time, which makes Juwan Johnson an interesting dart throw … if he’s active. Johnson leads all Saints TEs with 1.60 yards per route versus man. Trautman averaged 0.05, while Garrett Griffin (0.40) and Nick Vannett (0.00) have been similarly invisible.
Cash Plays: QB Josh Allen, RB Mark Ingram
GPP Plays: QB Taysom Hill, RB Matt Breida, RB Tony Jones Jr. (if Ingram sits), WR Stefon Diggs, WR Emmanuel Sanders, WR Cole Beasley, WR Marquez Callaway, WR Tre’Quan Smith, WR Gabriel Davis, TE Juwan Johnson, DST Buffalo Bills, DST Saints
NFL DFS Cash Lineups
DraftKings
QB Josh Allen $7,800 at NO
RB D’Andre Swift $7,300 vs. CHI
RB David Montgomery $6,000 at DET
WR Michael Gallup $5,900 vs. LV
WR Hunter Renfrow $5,600 at DAL
WR Cedrick Wilson $3,500 vs. LV
TE Dalton Schultz $5,300 vs. LV
FLEX Mark Ingram $6,200 vs. BUF/Josh Jacobs $5,900 at DAL
DST Detroit Lions $2,400 vs. CHI
FanDuel
QB Josh Allen $8,800 at NO
RB D’Andre Swift $8,000 vs. CHI
RB David Montgomery $7,500 at DET
WR Darnell Mooney $6,800 at DET
WR Michael Gallup $6,500 vs. LV
WR Hunter Renfrow $6,200 at DAL
TE Dalton Schultz $6,000 vs. LV
FLEX Mark Ingram $6,600 vs. BUF/Josh Jacobs $6,700 at DAL
This time, Tyson Fury is the favorite — and a big one.
Fury is a -280 favorite over Deontay Wilder in their WBC heavyweight title bout, according to Caesars Sportsbook. Wilder is a +230 underdog for Saturday’s fight in Las Vegas (9 p.m. ET, ESPN+ PPV).
It’s the third meeting between the two heavyweights, and the first in which Fury has been the favorite. Wilder was the favorite in the first meeting in 2018, which ended in a split draw, and again in the 2020 rematch that Fury won by TKO in the seventh round.
Entering Saturday, nearly 80% of the money that had been wagered on the fight at Caesars Sportsbook was on Fury, highlighted by a $265,000 bet on the favorite at -265 odds.
The action has varied at other sportsbooks. BetMGM reported Saturday morning that 64.6% of money wagered was on Wilder. The SuperBook said it received a $10,000 bet on Wilder at +250, and Circa Sports also reported taking some early action on the underdog.
“Overall, the action is definitely picking up,” Nick Kalikas, risk supervisor for Circa Sports, told ESPN on Friday. “We did see a lot of straight bets on Wilder earlier. Now, as we’re getting closer to the fight, there is an uptick of action both ways. We did see some sharp action, some max bets on Tyson Fury, as of late.”
At sportsbooks in the United Kingdom — where Fury is from — the betting action was evenly divided, according to OddsChecker.com, a site that tracks betting markets internationally and in the United States.
