Updated 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds & 7 Picks for Will Zalatoris, Hideki Matsuyama, More

The PGA TOUR enters a fantastic two-week stretch at Bay Hill this week with the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Four of the top six golfers in the world are in the field this week at one of the toughest tests players will face on TOUR. The thick roughs and nearly 7,500 yards that face the world’s best means it will take an incredible effort to come out on top.

We’ve seen longshot after longshot win this year on TOUR, and the Honda Classic was no different with Sepp Straka coming out on top. There’s great depth in the golf world right now, but the API usually sees one of golf’s elite prevail.

Our GolfBet staff has scoured the odds board and identified its favorite picks for the week at Bay Hill. Check them out below.

Keith Mitchell — Top-10 (+350)

Jason Sobel: While I realize my weekly previews are getting dangerously close to looking like a Keith Mitchell fan page, there’s zero reason to hop off the bandwagon now.

In five starts so far in 2022, Mitchell owns four results of 12th or better, including a T9 last week at the Honda. Now he’ll head to the API, where he has finishes of T5 and T6 in three career starts. The truth is, I think his driving prowess should help him more at Bay Hill than it did at PGA National, where he won his lone PGA TOUR title three years ago, as strokes gained off the tee should serve as a more relevant metric this week. (Which is saying a lot, I realize, since Straka won while leading the field in that very category.)

And just in case all of that wasn’t enough to convince you, let’s also factor in the narrative of Mitchell sticking around after his final round on Sunday to congratulate his college teammate on the victory. That should at least be worth a few karma points.

Sungjae Im — Top 5 (+600)

Chris Murphy: Each of my outrights the past few weeks have finished inside the top five, so I’ll take a new approach this week and look to capitalize on that close but not quite result.

This week, it’s with Sungjae Im, who I expect to bounce back quickly at Bay Hill after a disappointing missed cut as the tournament favorite last week at the Honda Classic. He was +1000 to win last week’s event and now we are getting odds for him to be in the top five, albeit in a much stronger field, at +600.

The biggest issue for Im last week was a rough Thursday, which saw him lose 2.6 strokes on approach and another 2.9 putting in one round. He bounced back with his irons on Friday, gaining a full stroke on the field, but he wasn’t able to hole enough putts to get inside of the number to play the weekend.

The South Korean now heads to the Arnold Palmer Invitational, which is another course that has suited his game over the past few years with three made cuts and two top-three finishes in his last three trips to Bay Hill.

This course suits his game well as one that requires a bit of a grind and is also played on his preferred bermudagrass putting surfaces. Everything lines up for Sungjae to have another solid week and a top finish at the API.

Viktor Hovland +1800

Matt Vincenzi: Hovland comes into the week with scorching hot irons, which is the most important aspect of taming Bay Hill. In his most recent start at Riviera, the 24-year-old gained 6.1 strokes on approach. The dialed-in performance trailed only Tony Finau and winner Joaquin Niemann in the category, leading Hovland to a fourth-place finish.

Last season, Hovland was also very good at Riviera. He gained 4.1 strokes on approach (fifth-place finish) and rode his hot form into the following week. His next start came at WGC Concession, where finished in second and gained 8.7 strokes on approach, a career best. Hovland now heads to Florida once again after a strong showing at Riviera and I expect another ceiling performance.

The No. 4 ranked golfer in the world recently won the Dubai Desert Classic on the DP World TOUR (January 2022). Despite the worldwide success, Hovland is still in search of a signature win on the PGA TOUR. Bay Hill would be a logical spot for that to happen.

Matt Fitzpatrick +3000

Derek Farnsworth: This is my first week as a part of the best bets, so I might as well swing for the fences with an outright bet. Fitzpatrick has never won on the PGA TOUR, but he does have seven professional wins under his belt.

When trying to predict outright winners, many look to recent form, many look to course history, and many look to course fit. Fitzpatrick has all three on his side this week. He has finished T12 or better in each of his last four starts worldwide, including back-to-back top 10s in his first two TOUR starts of 2022 (T6 at Pebble Beach and T10 at the Waste Management Open). He’s rattled off three straight top 10s at Bay Hill, including a second-place finish in 2019.

He’s always said that he prefers difficult golf courses and ones that challenge all aspects of your game. This one certainly fits the bill, as Bay Hill has been in the top 10 in difficulty on tour in each of the last three years.

If Fitzpatrick can get off to a good start on Thursday and Friday, I like his chances to be in contention on the weekend. The wind is supposed to pick up on Saturday and Sunday, which should play into his strengths.

Jason Kokrak & Marc Leishman both top-30 finish (+310)

Rob Bolton: OK, FanDuel, I see you. You got me. I’m on board with your parlay.

You’ll find this wager in “Golf Specials 2.” It’s among a handful of tantalizing options that reflects a broader spectrum versus the same boards of the last two weeks at FanDuel.

Not unlike how Torrey Pines rewards power and precision, the same combination does the damage at Bay Hill. These two go about their business with that profile. In fact, both are inside the top five of my Power Rankings at PGATOUR.com, so my expectations are for so much more than to fulfill the terms of this prop.

Kokrak has gone T10-T18-T8 here in the last three editions, respectively. He has six top 30s in his last eight trips, so even before he elevated to his current level on the global stage, he was a force at Bay Hill.

Leishman is a former champion (2017) who baked that title into a stretch of five straight top-25s. He’s been a monster all season, and we already know how reliable he is when the wind kicks up, which it will this week.

Will Zalatoris +2900

Landon Silinsky: This might be a hot take, but I personally believe Zalatoris just might be the third-best iron player in the world behind Collin Morikawa and Justin Thomas. The 25-year old ranks No. 1 in this field in SG: Approach over his past 24 rounds and has two top-six finishes over his past three starts.

We love targeting Willy Z at non birdie-fest type of events where his poor putting is less magnified. Thankfully, Bay Hill demands precise iron play to contend, which is basically all we need to know. Zalatoris has actually been close to a neutral putter over his past 24 rounds as well, which is a scary thought for everyone else in the field this week, because if he gains anything on the greens he’s on the short list to win.

After a T10 here last year on debut, I’m expecting another huge week out of this golf wunderkind.

Hideki Matsuyama +2500

Bryan Berryman: This number stood out to me on my first pass through the odds board early Monday morning, and it ended up being my first click of the week.

Bay Hill is a challenging golf course that will demand a complete all around game in order to win. Over the last 24 rounds Hideki ranks sixth in this field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and first in Strokes Gained: Total. He’s even gained strokes putting over his last four starts, a great indicator that every facet of his game is clicking.

This hot stretch of play has led to two victories and an additional top-10 finish over his last six starts. He’s never missed a cut at this event in seven tries and is in prime form heading into this week. A lot of signs point to Hideki this week.