Russia said it would rejoin a deal allowing for the safe passage of Ukrainian grain, ending days of uncertainty over future shipments and feeding some criticism at home that Moscow had capitulated in the standoff.
Over the weekend, Russia suspended its involvement in an agreement with the United Nations and Turkey that was struck in July and allowed for the safe passage of grain exports from war-torn Ukrainian ports through the Black Sea to world markets. Russian authorities had said a maritime corridor used to facilitate the grain shipments had been used in an attack on Russia-occupied Crimea. Moscow threatened to board ships that left without its permission.
Russia’s Defense Ministry said early Wednesday it had received written guarantees from Kyiv that Ukraine wouldn’t use the corridor to attack Russian forces and that those were sufficient to rejoin the deal. President
Vladimir Putin
later Wednesday said that Russia reserved the right to pull out of the deal, but that it wouldn’t interfere in any future grain shipments from Ukraine directly to Turkey.
The justification provided by the Defense Ministry triggered derision in Moscow, where commentators have openly criticized Russia’s execution of the war in Ukraine. Senior military officials have at times drawn fire from pro-Kremlin military bloggers for losing ground to Ukraine’s army in recent months and for other moves these critics have called tactical or strategic mistakes. Russian officials have also had to defend themselves against criticism they have bungled a recent mobilization of reinforcements across the country.
“We trust Kyiv that the grain deal will not be used for military purposes. Brilliant,” wrote political commentator
Pavel Danilin,
director of the Center for Political Analysis, a pro-Kremlin Moscow-based think tank, questioning the logic of trusting Ukraine.
After Russia said over the weekend that it was suspending its participation in the deal, ships continued to pull in and out of Ukraine, navigating through a maritime corridor established to safeguard the trade. Moscow then threatened it would intercept ships that disembarked without permission, but Russia’s navy didn’t stop any vessels.
The relatively smooth operation, despite Russia’s suspension, was taken by some critics as a sign Moscow was powerless to upset the trade, even if it wanted to.
“The Kremlin itself simply fell into a trap from which it did not know how to get out,”
Tatiana Stanovaya,
founder of R.Politik, an independent political-analysis firm founded in Moscow, wrote on Telegram.
Among shipping and insurance executives, though, Russia’s suspension was threatening to dry up underwriting for voyages. Insurers were pulling policies and refusing to write new ones without Russia’s participation in the deal.
“You can’t get insurance with Russia out of the agreement,” said
Nikolas Tsakos,
president and chief executive of U.S.-listed, Greece-based Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd. Shipowners said insurers have resumed offering cover.
The grain standoff came as Russia faces setbacks on the battlefield and far from it. Ukrainian forces have taken back swaths of terrain that Russian forces had occupied in the early days of the invasion. Meanwhile, Russia’s economic leverage over Europe, in the form of its once-prodigious sales of natural gas, has recently waned—at least temporarily. European buyers have pivoted from Russian supplies, while Moscow cut back sharply on its sales to Europe.
Still, the continent has managed in recent months to sock away enough gas in storage that analysts believe will help it avoid the sort of shortages and rationings many Western officials just a few months ago had been bracing to endure. That new comfort could be short-lived, analysts say, if there is a colder-than-expected winter or infrastructure problems that further disrupt supplies.
Russia’s grain-deal suspension threatened to increase economic pressure on Ukraine, which relied on agriculture for about 10% of its gross domestic product before the war, Western and Ukrainian officials said. The Russian shutdown also imperiled food supplies for millions of people in poorer countries that import Ukrainian wheat.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had bottled up those grain exports, sending global prices soaring. The U.N.-brokered deal moderated those prices, but also appeared to give Moscow outsize leverage on markets. As Mr. Putin threatened in recent weeks to leave the deal, Western officials accused him of using food as a weapon.
A U.N. official prepares to inspect in Istanbul a ship from Ukraine loaded with grain.
Photo:
yasin akgul/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
Ismini Palla,
a spokeswoman for the U.N. at a coordination center in Istanbul that is charged with overseeing the deal, said Wednesday’s pause in shipping, which had been anticipated before Russia’s decision to rejoin the deal, was intended “to provide time for planning and discussions for the next movement of vessels.”
Ukraine shipped nearly 10 million tons of corn, wheat, sunflower oil and other products through the deal’s maritime corridor between August and October, helping to return the country’s exports to prewar levels. More than 100 large bulk ships are involved in the trade.
Russia stopped cooperating with the agreement after it accused Ukraine of using the corridor to attack Russian forces over the weekend. The U.N. said no military vessels are allowed to approach the corridor, which is closely monitored using satellite data.
In threatening to abandon the deal in recent months, Russia had complained that not enough of Ukraine’s grain was going to poor countries and said Western sanctions had slowed Russian food and fertilizer exports. U.S. and European Union officials say the sanctions don’t apply to food products. The U.N. said the measures have created obstacles to financing, insuring, shipping and paying for Russian products.
Russian shipping executives said vessel arrivals at Russian export ports had fallen by 20% over the past two months, with the majority of ships shifting to move Ukrainian cargoes.
U.N. Secretary-General
António Guterres
praised Russia’s renewed participation in the deal. Mr. Guterres “continues his engagement with all actors towards the renewal and full implementation of the Initiative, and he also remains committed to removing the remaining obstacles to the exports of Russian food and fertilizer,” his spokesman,
Stéphane Dujarric,
said.
Russia’s Defense Ministry said Wednesday that thanks to the U.N. and Turkey, “it was possible to obtain the necessary written guarantees from Ukraine” that it wouldn’t use the maritime corridor and Ukrainian ports for combat operations against Russia. Russia “considers that the guarantees received at the moment appear to be sufficient and resumes the implementation of the agreement,” it said.
Write to Jared Malsin at jared.malsin@wsj.com, Ann M. Simmons at ann.simmons@wsj.com and Costas Paris at costas.paris@wsj.com
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