Reports of clashes in Southern Syria near Israel’s Golan

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Syrians have been protesting against the Assad regime and there have been increasing clashes in southern Syria in recent days. This culminated in reports of more serious incidents involving gun battles and the Syrian regime using tanks in Dara’a province. On Thursday reports claimed that some Syrian insurgents or rebels had clashed with the regime in Tasil, only five kilometers from the Golan Heights and historic ceasefire border lines with Israel. If the situation deteriorates, it could have major ramifications for Israel and Jordan as well as the Syrian regime and pro-Iran elements, such as Hezbollah, that have cells and bases near the Golan. 

The Syrian regime retook areas in Dara’a and near the Golan in 2018 after years of civil war. The southern front was a largely stable frontline for years but the Syrian rebels collapsed quickly and Syrian civil defense volunteers, called White Helmets, were evacuated through Israel to Jordan in July 2018. A year later pro-Iran elements linked to Hezbollah had set up shop near the Golan and even prepared “killer drones” that they intended to use against Israel. Israel carried out airstrikes in late August 2019 against the drone squad.  

Over the last two years there have been increasing and simmering tensions in southern Syria. This relates to the fact that many former Syrian rebels were demobilized and even “reconciled” with the regime and were tasked with being recruited to work with the regime. Syrian refugees who had fled to Jordan by the hundreds of thousands didn’t want to return, fearing conscription and forced disappearances. The brutal regime continues to disappear former rebels and track some down, while pressuring others to collaborate.  

Other tensions dominate as well. Besides some former rebels who came over to the regime side and now act as kind of local warlords or powerbrokers, there is also the presence of Russians in southern Syria who had come as part of a deal to help make the transition more palatable. Ahmad al-Audeh, for instance, a former rebels, accepted Russia’s terms and joined the Russian-backed Syrian regime 5th Corps and even headed its 8th brigade. At the same time there are tensions in the area with the powerful Druze minority in Jebel Druze and the Hauran areas. The Druze have generally supported the regime out of fear of jihadists and extremists among ISIS and the rebels. ISIS used to control areas near the southern Golan.  

Pro-Syrian rebel accounts say that former rebels have re-taken or “liberated” Tasil and other areas now. The tweets say they have taken Syrian soldiers prisoner, which they describe as men who work with the regime. Pictures posted online allegedly show the Syrian rebels with their boots on a photo of Syrian regime leader Bashar al-Assad. 

The Assad regime presides over a divided Syria. Northern Syria is occupied by Turkey and has extremist groups like HTS in Idlib and the newly US-sanctioned Ahrar al-Sharqiya. Meanwhile in eastern Syria the US-backed SDF control a vast area, including areas liberated from ISIS in 2018. The regime controls Damascus, Homs, Hama, Aleppo and key cities such as Deir Ezzor. Pro-Iran groups dominate the area from Albukamal and T-4 base in Syria. This patchwork of control also includes Russian forces in Latakia. Recently reports said Russia was concerned about Israeli airstrikes in Syria. The Syrian regime wants an end to sanctions and to increase its largely gutted economy. It wants to work with China and other countries. Meanwhile Jordan, Iraq, Egypt and the Gulf have considered more normalization with the Syrian regime. Problems and fighting in Dara’a will raise concerns in Jordan.  

Israel provided aid and support to Syrians near the border from 2011 until the regime retook the area. Israel has demanded Iran not entrench in Syria and that anti-Israel groups like Hezbollah and militias linked to Iran not set up bases near the Golan. In the past some Hezbollah members linked to the Golan file of Hezbollah have met with accidents in some parts of southern Syria or border areas. In one cases Hezbollah blamed Israel for an airstrike near the Lebanon-Syria border and vowed revenge. Hezbollah has done this several times in the last two years, cutting holes in the border fence in April 2020. In 2019 it fired and ATGM at Israeli forces.  

Russia has allegedly sent a delegation to southern Syria to try to broker quiet in the area. Syria’s regime has sent tanks according to accounts. Those who follow the Syrian rebels appear to think this latest round of fighting is more serious than in the past.  

In the past a group linked to ISIS, called Jaysh Khalid, controlled areas between Tasil and the Golan border. It is unclear if those ISIS cells that once existed and which were pounded and destroyed by the regime in 2018, could also pop up again.  



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