Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu Holds Slight Edge in Election Exit Polls

That gives him an advantage over Israel’s current centrist Prime Minister

Yair Lapid,

who has vowed to form a government without Mr. Netanyahu and whose Yesh Atid party was projected to have won 23 seats, according to Kan. Mr. Lapid’s bloc was projected to win 54 seats, according to the latest exit poll.

Early on Wednesday morning, Mr. Netanyahu took the stage in front of a crowd of cheering supporters in Jerusalem to tell them they were “on the cusp of a very great victory.”

“We need to wait for the final results. But one thing is already clear: Our path, the Likud’s path, has proven itself,” Mr. Netanyahu said.

About 71.3% of eligible voters headed to the ballot box, the highest tally since 2015, according to Israel’s Central Elections Committee. By 6 a.m. in Israel, only about 34% of the vote had been counted, making the results fluid.

Mr. Netanyahu has promised voters he would form what would be the country’s most right-wing and religious coalition in its history. It would include an alliance of far-right and religious lawmakers proposing tough measures to quell Palestinian unrest in the West Bank and pass legislation to weaken Israel’s judiciary. The joint leader of that alliance is the far-right lawmaker

Itamar Ben-Gvir,

whose Religious Zionism party received 15 seats, according to Kan, making it the third-largest party in the Knesset.

Mr. Netanyahu has vowed to make Mr. Ben-Gvir a minister if he forms a government. Mr. Ben-Gvir is requesting control of the public-security ministry, which would give him control of the country’s police force.

Mr. Ben-Gvir, who was convicted in 2007 of incitement to racism and supporting a terrorist organization, was best known in Israel for defending Israelis accused of violent attacks against Palestinians in court, before rising to prominence over the past year on a law-and-order campaign. He has told voters that he hopes to make Israelis safer by deporting people who he believes undermine the Jewish state, executing terrorists and giving immunity to Israeli troops and police who shoot and kill Arabs who are seen holding stones or Molotov cocktails before they throw them.

At Mr. Ben-Gvir’s election-night party in Jerusalem, activists enthusiastically cheered the exit-poll results, dancing in circles while waving blue-and-white Israeli flags.

“It feels like Independence Day,” said Alon Hazon, 47 years old, from Holon in central Israel. “We’re ready to take our country back.”

Arab citizens of Israel have expressed fear over Mr. Ben-Gvir. Riham Abu Nar, 19, who works at a kindergarten in Jaffa, said she was voting for the Arab-led Hadash-Ta’al party to prevent Mr. Ben-Gvir from gaining power.

“Itamar is really racist,” said Ms. Abu Nar, who is an Arab citizen of Israel. “He’s obsessed with Arabs. Our lives will be in danger if he’s in government.”

Mr. Ben-Gvir has denied that he is a racist.

The Islamist Ra’am party, which broke a taboo to join the previous government, received five seats in the Kan poll, while the Arab-led alliance of Hadash-Ta’al received four seats.

Mr. Netanyahu’s apparent parliamentary majority could be lost if the Palestinian nationalist Balad party crosses the electoral threshold of 3.25% of the total vote. According to Kan’s exit poll, Balad has 3.1% of the total vote.

Israelis remain split over whether Mr. Netanyahu—who was the nation’s longest-serving prime minister and was ousted last year—should return to power. He is beloved by a large number of Israelis, many of whom refer to him as “the King of Israel.” But he has been unable to lead his Likud party to a decisive victory since 2015, as Israelis on both the right and left remain torn over whether he should serve as prime minister while on trial for corruption.

“Our previous good and strong governments were led by Bibi,” said Likud voter Avigayil Neuman, 28, from Jerusalem’s Rehavia neighborhood, referring to Mr. Netanyahu by his nickname.

“I’m sick of right-wing governments led by Netanyahu,” said Dana Lenzini, a teacher from Tel Aviv. She cast her vote for Mr. Lapid’s Yesh Atid party, saying he had done a fine job in the four months he has been premier.

Mr. Netanyahu’s trial on corruption charges, now over two years old, was a rallying cry for his opponents in the past but doesn’t loom as large in this election, with prosecutors suffering some courtroom setbacks. Still, the trial underscores the stakes for Mr. Netanyahu, who denies any wrongdoing. His potential coalition allies say they will pass legislation that will make him immune from prosecution. He denies that he is seeking re-election to evade the trial.

Mr. Lapid, who leads a centrist secular party but allies with right-wing, left-wing and Arab factions, has warned voters that women, LGBT Israelis and Arab citizens are all at risk of seeing their rights diminished if Mr. Netanyahu and his right-wing and religious coalition are ushered into power. Mr. Lapid has cast the election as a choice over Israel’s future as a democratic state.

“I know that they’ve already declared the end of democracy a thousand times,” Mr. Lapid said Wednesday. “But this time it’s not a threat. It’s the election promise of the third-largest party in Israel and opposition leader

Benjamin Netanyahu

is entirely dependent on them.”

Aviv Bertele, 42, who runs a Hebrew language school in Tel Aviv, said he voted for the left-wing Meretz party despite being more right-wing because he wants lawmakers who can fight against people such as Mr. Ben-Gvir, whose alliance he fears could limit the rights of LGBT people and women.

“As a member of the LGBT community, and as someone who considers himself a feminist, I think we owe it to ourselves to protect ourselves from fascist forces like Itamar Ben-Gvir,” he said. “These elections are crucial to determine whether Israel will go in a liberal way or become something like Iran or Saudi Arabia.”

The result of the fifth ballot is likely to become clearer Wednesday, when Israel’s election committee will have finished the bulk of the vote tally. Under Israeli law, parties must win at least 3.25% of the vote to enter the Knesset. The fragmented nature of the Israeli political landscape means that parties must form coalitions to secure a parliamentary majority and govern. The process is likely to drag on for weeks, if not months. Analysts aren’t ruling out a sixth election.

In the coming days, Israeli President

Isaac Herzog

will choose the leader he believes has the best likelihood of assembling a governing coalition, usually that of the party that wins the most seats or receives the most recommendations to form a government by fellow lawmakers. That person has six weeks to try to cobble together a majority coalition that includes the support of smaller parties.

Write to Dov Lieber at dov.lieber@wsj.com