NHC: Portions of Florida’s southwest coast under Tropical Storm Watch
Hello everyone. Uh First morning meteorologist Kellyanne class here we are talking all about her or a topical storm Elsa today the 11 a.m. Advisory was just released. So uh we’re gonna talk a lot about um Elsa today. Uh new information coming on in right now. It’s still a tropical storm uh with winds of 60 MPH moving to the west northwest at 13 MPH, pressure went up a couple of millibars to about 1000 and nine. So it’s weakening very slightly. It’s interacting with Hispaniola right now uh and it’s interacting with Jamaica and cuba. So we are going to be watching this system very closely as we go over the next couple of days as it gets closer and closer to florida. So this is a look right now at tropical storm Elsa. Uh It has a good decent amount of conviction um as it tries to go into the caribbean uh and it’s trying to find the best path right now. It’s trying to move over Jamaica and it’s interacting with the land obviously does not like that as tropical system and it’s beginning to bubble up. So uh This is something that is slowly beginning to weaken but notice those water temperatures 86-85°.. Um So very warm waters that it’s going into. So let’s talk about where we’re at right now. The only watches and warnings in effect hurricane watches and warnings is for cuba. But there are now her tropical storm watches and warnings in effect for not just Jamaica cuba, but now also southwest florida. There’s a tropical storm watch and then there’s a tropical storm warning for portions of the keys. Nothing yet here for central florida or the west coast, but with the latest track from the National hurricane center, it is expected to kind of paralleled, so go over The Key is kind of parallel the western coast and then eventually move towards the Big Bend area of florida. So here is the latest track from the National Hurricane center And it’s saying right around Monday morning it’s going to make landfall in Cuba. Then by the next 12 hours it’s going to emerge off the coast of Cuba With winds of 60 mph notice before makes landfall in Cuba. It has winds of 70 mph as we look towards Monday evening and weakened slightly again. But then it re emerges into the warmer waters of the Gulf. Why is it not strengthening while it’s going to battle some wind shear? Also an interesting thing that the National Hurricane Center is saying is that uh they are actually some of the stuff that they’re putting out right now about the wind speeds are going a little bit higher than what some of the models are saying. So let’s show you the models. Uh these are the intensity models now, they are all in good agreement that it’s going to remain a tropical storm status a couple of days ago, they were showing anywhere from about a category three to a category four, but now it’s looking like it’s going to maintain tropical storm for strength. Speaking of the models, uh there’s a little bit of shift, which I think is very interesting. There there’s a little bit of a shift between all of the models before we were showing models that was going to go into the Big Bend area of florida or try to make landfall right around Tampa Clearwater and then move across the peninsula. But now they’re trending a little bit more west towards Tallahassee. We will have to see uh you know, it’s not just one run that we’d like to go off of. It’s a trend that we like to see if we see a trend that it’s going in that direction. National Hurricane Center will most likely agree with that. But for now this is what they’re saying. So the the center of the track can go anywhere from the outer edges of the line, on the left to the outer edge is on the line to the right, so it has all of this leeway to move. If it moves a little bit more towards the west will be uh in better shape in terms of not a strong winds, but I still think that the impacts are going to be the same. Uh you know, rainfall, certainly some tropical downpours and some isolated tornadoes. Of course, the further right or the further east it tracks the better chance we can see some stronger winds move on through. So right now the latest track from the National Hurricane Center has it passing over the straits of florida as we look towards the early Tuesday morning, it’s off the coast of Fort Myers as we look towards Tuesday evening and then trying to make landfall as we look towards early Wednesday morning. So it’s Tuesday into Wednesday. That’s going to be kind of that key time frame. So uh let’s take you through through some stuff. Let’s talk about when uh Clearwater Beach, we know that’s on the west coast. Here’s what some of our computer models are saying it’s going to reach tropical storm for status. See winds there, the further east we go, The winds actually begin to die down. This is, look at Daytona Beach. We could see anywhere from about 25 to 30mph winds. So, uh looks like the further east you go, yes, we’ll still be dealing with some gusty winds, but this is a little bit more like something that you get in a thunderstorm. So not really going to be too concerned about uh winds, but of course it’s going to be a strong and long period of time. This is, look at Orlando anywhere from about 20mph winds beginning early Tuesday morning to Wednesday six a.m. About 35 MPH winds of course the further west you go a little bit more stronger, the winds get almost 40 mile per hour winds by early Wednesday morning in the villages. And as we look towards Leesburg Wednesday morning, 40 mile per hour winds. So you kind of get the general idea. Again, it’s going to be anywhere from about sunday and into monday. I I do think that the key concerns with this is going to be of course rainfall and some gusty winds and some isolated tornadoes because the track, unfortunately we were on the wrong side of the track. If this was a little bit east, if this entire cone was towards the east and off of our coast, we would be concerned about tornadoes, we would have some coastal concerns but unfortunately looks like tropical storm Elsa is continuing on that path of making that northerly and northeasterly turn over the peninsula of water peninsula of florida. So let’s look at a GFS model wind gusts, so kind of what we can expect. So this is a look right now, four o’clock this afternoon, everything’s fine. We have quite a while until we start to feel some of those gusts. Monday morning, south florida already started getting on some gusty winds from some of those outer rain bands of Elsa. And then as we look, we can start to see some of that red popping up down in southwest florida by monday evening, we’re starting to get to the core of that storm as we start to go through the evening hours and early Tuesday morning, it’s pretty much kind of riding the coast of southwest florida, so pretty much parallel, but looks like southwest florida. By early Tuesday morning kind of gets the brunt of the storm, but those winds will begin to pick up as we look towards central florida. By early Tuesday morning, we’ll start to get some tropical downpours. Then notice those winds really begin to ramp up by Tuesday afternoon. So again, Tuesday into Wednesday. As we look towards Wednesday though, this system tries to make landfall on shore early Wednesday morning, strongest winds out along suncoast. And then we start to get some guts as we look towards uh the early morning hours on Wednesday. One thing that we are going to be concerned about on Wednesday is our northwestern county. So think Marion County Sumpter County, uh portions of Lake County certainly, but uh we’re thinking more Marion and center counties will see some of the strongest wind gust since it is making that turn into the big bend of florida. The further east you go on Wednesday, not as gusty, but still going to be concerned about those uh potential wind gusts. So 7:30 a.m. Wednesday morning, almost 30 mile per hour wind gusts in and around Ocala and as that storm continues to push to the north and northeast will start to clear out and calm down. Some of those gusty winds Wednesday afternoon and our southeastern counties still are central and especially northern counties will be dealing with the brunt of the storm. Eventually the storm will pull away by Wednesday evening and most of Wednesday evening into thursday should be okay. So um That’s one thing we’re concerned about is the gusty winds. The other thing is obviously going to be the rainfall, even though it looks like it’s not going to even be here for about 48 hours, we could still get a pretty decent amount of precipitation coming out of this storm. So uh 2 to 4 inches is what we’re looking at, around lake centre Marion, even portions of Lucia County and Volusia County looking like, well uh see that rainfall the further south east you go, especially on the boulevard and Osceola County is one or two inches with some locally higher amounts. Um but still either way, it’s going to create some localized flooding. Of course that the highest rainfall totals will be in and around southwest florida. So again, we’re gonna be concerned about the rain, The winds, but it’s going to be a tropical storm. So, uh, again, the National Hurricane Center is saying, even though it’s going to move over water, it’s going to re strengthen with winds of 70 mph by Monday morning before it makes landfall in Cuba. It’s then going to weekend and it has sustained winds over the next from Monday evening to Wednesday morning of 60 mph. So it’s going to encounter in this area a little bit of some wind shear, Wind shear at that point would be our friend that would tear apart the storm. Obviously, one other thing that we are going to be concerned about Is the mountain peaks. Um, it had already passed by, uh, the mountain peaks and Hispaniola, which are the highest at 10,000 ft. It started to kind of encounter those mountains out in Jamaica at 7000 ft. There’s still two mountain peaks left that could deteriorate the storm 6000 ft and almost 4000 ft. And the one that sent 4000 ft, it’s going to go directly over. So that’s looking to be our friend. Again. Models are in pretty good agreement in terms of, we could get some impacts here in terms of rainfall, gusty winds, isolated tornadoes. But now we’re starting to see that trend push a little bit more towards the Tallahassee area. So we’re gonna have to watch these model trends very, very closely. I do think we’re starting to get a better idea of what is happening within this storm. Um, It is still weakening very very slightly now has pressure of 1009 millibars. At eight o’clock in the morning, it had pressure of 1000 and seven millibars. So when you see that happen, when you see that pressure go up, that means that it is weakening. It now has winds of 60 MPH moving to the west northwest at 13 mph. So it’s really just trying to find the best environment for it to grow. But of course it’s going to be in and around this ridge of high pressure that’s going to make it steer up to the North. I do think once it gets over CUba will have a better idea of what’s going to happen. Just because how quickly is this land interaction going to have uh deteriorate tropical storm Elsa. Once it begins to move over CUBA, I think we’ll have an even better idea of what’s going to happen. Um But as of now, we have tropical storm warnings in effect for portions of the florida keys. That means within the next 36 hours there is going to be tropical storm conditions. Then in the yellow, we have tropical storm watches in effect for the rest of the keys and southwest florida, which means within the next about 48 hours or so, we will have tropical storm conditions again. Nothing here for central florida, nothing here for uh most of south florida at that point. Um but we are still a day or two away from it being 48 hours away. So we’re keeping a very close eye on Elsa. Uh for those of you who have just joined on in, just want to say uh happy fourth of july. Uh You know what a time to uh have a tropical storm during the holiday weekend. Hopefully if you’re here visiting this weekend, you were able to get out of town before this does hit. If you are here Visiting for four July rest of the week, just know that we do have the potential to see some tropical storm forest conditions. Uh so if you are just joining, we’ll go over it once again. And uh so right now we only have tropical storm watches and warnings in effect. But the latest track from the National hurricane center takes it over CUba with winds of 70 MPH, eight o’clock monday morning. Then 12 hours later emerges off the coast of CUba, then begins to move towards the floor straits and then begins to curve into portions of central florida. Uh Wind going to be the primary concern were this model shows us the GFS versus the Euro. So these are the two big models, long range models that we typically look at. So we can already see the Euro before landfall in Cuba is trying to develop some stronger winds. But GFS by 1030 on Tuesday evening wants to take those winds off the coast of Tampa Bay Clearwater area but then begins to fade on out. So the fact that we’re not seeing a lot of color and good agreement is a good thing, but something that we’re going to keep a close eye on of course, the other thing is going to be the potential flooding here in central florida anywhere from about 2 to 4 inches, especially to the northwest of I four. Even Orlando. We’re looking at anywhere from about 2 to 3 inches in that purple shading, but the further south west you go the better chance we can see for some of that rain fall. So just kind of timing everything out, some of those local impacts monday evening. Some of your final preparations should be made. Um we’re talking about a tropical storm with winds of about 60 mph, the strongest winds offshore. Um I think at this point the primary concern is going to be that severe weather threats. So of course with tropical systems, we can get isolated tornadoes in the mix. And that is going to be a concern as we look towards Tuesday and into Wednesday. So we are gonna be watching flooding. Uh We are going to be watching for some gusty winds, especially the further west you go because that storm, you’re getting closer to the center of that storm. Uh And so the better chance we could see for some stronger winds and then eventually we will be tracking not only tropical downpours, but also an isolated tornado risk. Can’t be ruled out looking Wednesday evening into thursday things, quote unquote returned to normal. The storm will pull away up into Georgia and the Carolinas. Um and that will eventually help to kind of clear us out, calm us down, but we’ll still be dealing with some gusty winds up to our northeastern areas or northern areas As we look towards Wednesday evening, it just depends on how quickly this storm pulls away. So, uh we’re gonna be watching uh also very very closely of course. Um we know central florida weather, we know hurricanes, there’s things that can change. Elsa has been pretty consistent about making that turn to the northeast along the big bend area of florida. So that’s just something that we’re going to be keeping a very close eye on. Again. The timing really is going to be looking towards. Uh as we look towards Tuesday into Wednesday Wednesday evening from south to north will start to kind of return to normal. Things will return to normal, but we’re still gonna be looking at a little bit of some rainfall and gusty winds up to our north by Wednesday evening and then eventually the system pulls away. So A lot to unpack there. Of course, that’s the 11 a.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center. And uh you know, we will of course give you updated here on west to uh we have our next track coming out at five p.m. Alex policy will be here talking about that. Um And of course any new information, be sure to follow us on all social media platforms. We will be updating you continuously throughout the holiday weekend, even if you’re not glued to your television, We will be here, we will be updating you and hopefully uh if you’re getting out of town you have safe travels back and happy four July, everyone
NHC: Portions of Florida’s southwest coast under Tropical Storm Watch
Updated: 11:48 AM EDT Jul 4, 2021
Tropical Storm Elsa slows as it moves toward Jamaica. Forecasters say there is potential to see impacts across Florida.A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas. At 11 a.m. on Sunday, the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located 50 miles north of Kingston, Jamaica, according to forecasters. Elsa was moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph with maximum sustained winds at 60 mph.>>TRACKING ELSA: The latest maps, models and pathsForecasters say Elsa will slow down even more throughout the day Sunday, as it changes directions northwest into Monday.Elsa is expected to make a move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba on Sunday.The National Hurricane Center expects the hurricane to move across central and western Cuba, toward the Florida Straits by Monday. Elsa is forecasted to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday.Related: Video shows storm damage in Barbados from ElsaForecasters say Elsa may weaken slightly while moving across Cuba on Sunday into Monday, before seeing a slight strengthening over the Florida Straits.>> WESH 2 News 2021 Hurricane Survival Guide>> Surviving the Season: Hurricane Season 2021A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, and HavanaJamaicaThe Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for:The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de CubaA Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:Cayman Brac and Little CaymanThe Cuban province of ArtemisaThe Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef Florida BayThe southwest coast of Florida from Flamingo to Bonita Beach 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
Tropical Storm Elsa slows as it moves toward Jamaica. Forecasters say there is potential to see impacts across Florida.
A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas.
At 11 a.m. on Sunday, the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located 50 miles north of Kingston, Jamaica, according to forecasters. Elsa was moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph with maximum sustained winds at 60 mph.
>>TRACKING ELSA: The latest maps, models and paths
Forecasters say Elsa will slow down even more throughout the day Sunday, as it changes directions northwest into Monday.
Elsa is expected to make a move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba on Sunday.
The National Hurricane Center expects the hurricane to move across central and western Cuba, toward the Florida Straits by Monday. Elsa is forecasted to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Related: Video shows storm damage in Barbados from Elsa
Forecasters say Elsa may weaken slightly while moving across Cuba on Sunday into Monday, before seeing a slight strengthening over the Florida Straits.
>> WESH 2 News 2021 Hurricane Survival Guide
>> Surviving the Season: Hurricane Season 2021
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:
- The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana
- Jamaica
- The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for:
- The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:
- Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
- The Cuban province of Artemisa
- The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef Florida Bay
- The southwest coast of Florida from Flamingo to Bonita Beach