“New Yorkers, please take this storm seriously. I know it’s short notice. Think Superstorm Sandy,” Gov. Andrew Cuomo said in a briefing Saturday afternoon where he declared a state of emergency for large parts of New York state. “It is as serious as a heart attack,” he said. “The people of the state have had less notice to fully actualize what might happen here.”
“I understand the instinct of “we’re going to shelter in place …” but that decision to ride it out could be a dangerous one, the governor said.
At 11 a.m. Saturday, the storm was upgraded to hurricane status, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph, but gusts, when the storm reaches the area, could be as high as 100 mph.
The effects of Henri will be felt as soon as Saturday night, with worsening conditions Sunday culminating in landfall over eastern Long Island early Sunday afternoon. Henri will then head into Connecticut and march north closer to the New York border, leaving a path of destruction that could include flash flooding and damage to homes and utility lines that could knock out power for days.
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect as heavy rain could drop 2 to 7 inches of precipitation with even more in spots. Coastline surges of 2 to 5 feet are expected, with the greatest, life-threatening swells on eastern Long Island and coastal Connecticut.
In upstate New York, flood-prone creeks and other bodies of water could also overflow, putting life and property at risk. Sustained power outages and significant damage to property are also expected, and officials urged residents to prepare for the storm while they can, ahead of deteriorating conditions starting Saturday night.
Cuomo has declared a state of emergency for Long Island, New York City, Westchester County, the Hudson Valley, and the Capital District. Those areas in upper New York state are facing considerable flooding risks, similar to damage the region saw after hurricanes Irene in 2011 and Sandy in 2012.
The governor also called on 500 National Guard members to assist ahead of Henri’s arrival.
“Conditions will deteriorate rapidly later tonight and become dangerous tomorrow. Henri will deliver life-threatening storm surge, damaging winds, and flooding rain. Be ready for the possibility of prolonged power outages. Take this storm seriously. Secure loose items around your property. If you are near the coast have a plan to seek higher ground,” ABC7 chief meteorologist Lee Goldberg advises.
This will likely be the first hurricane to make landfall on Long Island since Gloria in 1985. Unlike Gloria, this storm will slow down and move inland across Connecticut, the Mid-Hudson Valley, and central New England causing widespread damage.
Forecast in detail
The latest advisories, watches and warnings from the National Weather Service
Wind threat
Here’s how the National Weather Service is breaking it down:
EASTERN LI AND SE COASTAL CONNECTICUT: Winds could be 75 mph with gusts of 90-100 mph, with the worst Sunday morning into the afternoon. The ferocious winds could cause extensive damage and uprooting of trees, power lines, and poles. Damage to roofs and siding as well as significant damage to mobile homes could happen.
NASSAU COUNTY, SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT, SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER, INTERIOR COASTAL CONNECTICUT: Winds could be 50-60 mph with sustained gusts of 70-80 mph, with the worst Sunday morning into the afternoon. Widespread tree and power line damage similar to Tropical Storm Isaias last August is likely.
NYC/NJ METRO COUNTIES: Winds of 30 to 40 mp with 50-60 mph gusts are expected starting Sunday morning but could begin late Saturday. Scattered tree and power line damage are possible.
Surge threat
EASTERN LI BAYS/TWIN FORKS/LI SOUND/OCEAN BEACHFRONT: Life-threatening inundation threats of 3 to 4 and locally 5 feet in vulnerable spots are expected.
SOUTHERN BAYS OF WESTERN LI AND QUEENS: Moderate to locally major inundation threats of 2 to 3 feet, locally 4 feet are expected. (Great South Bay)
NY/NJ HARBORS: Minor inundation threat of 1 to 2 feet is expected.
Rainfall amounts
Three to 7 inches with locally higher amounts for much of Connecticut and eastern Long Island are expected by Monday. 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts are on tap for the rest of area.
Most widespread and heaviest rainfall likely will happen late Saturday night into Sunday night. Rain could linger into Monday.
The heavy rain will bring with the risk of flash floods.
Shoreline
Surf heights could reach 8 to 12 feet on western LI beaches and 12 to 18 feet on eastern LI beaches, causing dune erosion and possible dune breaches on vulnerable eastern Long Island barrier islands.
Off shore, wave heights could be 15 to 20 feet, particularly east of Moriches Inlet.
Official warnings
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the south shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point, the North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk Point and New Haven, Connecticut, to west of Watch Hill, Rhode Island.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut, the south shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet, Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to Manasquan Inlet, including New York City.
One of the biggest issues will be the storm surge from New York City to Cape Cod.
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Queens, New York across Long Island. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations.
RELATED: What is storm surge and why is it dangerous?
As of 5 p.m. ET, Henri had maximum sustained winds of 75 miles per hour and was about 335 miles south of Montauk Point/.
The current guidance from the National Hurricane Center:
1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin late
tonight or Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut,
Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge
Warning has been issued. Dangerous storm surge is possible
beginning late tonight or Sunday in western portions of Long
Island and Connecticut in the Storm Surge Watch area. Residents in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.
2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin late tonight or
Sunday in portions of Long Island and Connecticut, where a
Hurricane Warning has been issued. Hurricane conditions are
possible late tonight or Sunday across portions of Rhode Island.
3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small
stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and
isolated moderate river flooding, over portions of Long Island, New
England, southeast New York and northern New Jersey.
4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast
of the U.S. through the weekend. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.
Additional Henri Coverage
Tracking Henri Live
Long Island prepares for Henri
Connecticut braces for Henri
How mass transit is preparing for Henri
New York City beaches closed Sunday and Monday
What is storm surge and why is it dangerous?
Emergency Resources for severe weather
Weather or Not with Lee Goldberg’s extreme weather survival guide
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