When he left the White House, he decided he would take government documents and then decided to resist returning them — in a way that now presents perhaps Trump’s most significant legal liability to date.
Then he decided he was going to try to assert dominion over the party by endorsing candidates in the most important 2022 races in the country. Most underperformed their fellow Republicans on the ballot on Tuesday and lost winnable races — including some who could make the difference for Senate control. And if the GOP does come up short, there’ll be a credible case that Trump cost his party that chamber for the second straight election.
And finally, Trump decided that he would use the tail-end of the midterms to focus on his own impending presidential announcement, which still appears set for Tuesday. Trump has now backed himself into a corner: It’s exceedingly bad timing, but if he doesn’t go forward with it, he’ll look weak and chastened.
None of this means the GOP won’t nominate Trump again in 2024. It has stuck with him through plenty, and its adherence to Trumpism has always been more about emotion than pragmatism.
But long before this week, Trump’s grip on the party was weakening. An NBC News poll in October 2020 showed 54 percent of Republicans identified more as Trump supporters than as supporters of the party. By the eve of Election Day 2022, that had dropped to 30 percent — a record low. And it’s quite plausible it’ll drop further now.
And perhaps most troublingly for Trump, who has smacked down any Republican who dares to challenge him, he can’t seem to do that so well with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Trump’s decision to start going after DeSantis has gone over like a lead balloon in some corners of the party. And again, Trump can either commit to it or look like he backed down.
Even three months ago, we had DeSantis overtaking Trump as the most likely GOP nominee in 2024. After DeSantis’s reelection landslide and Trump’s very bad day on Tuesday, we feel significantly more confident of that. The lane for a credible alternative who can make their nomination bid about actually winning the White House is now significantly wider — whether that’s DeSantis or someone else.
Below are our latest rankings of the top 10 candidates most likely to be the GOP presidential nominee in 2024. As usual, this takes into account both their likelihood of running and their prospects if they do.
Honorable mention: Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.), Sen. Josh Hawley (Mo.), Sen. Tom Cotton (Ark.), Rep. Liz Cheney (Wyo.), New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, South Dakota Gov. Kristi L. Noem, Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, Donald Trump Jr.
10. Sen. Rick Scott: On the one hand, the 2022 election is looking like a major setback for the Florida senator, whose stint as chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee may soon end without his having secured what had been a very winnable majority. On the other hand, we just learned it reportedly dissuaded Scott from a planned challenge to GOP Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). That suggests a presidential run might be more on the table than before. And Scott seems rather impatient with where he is. (Previous ranking: 8)
9. Mike Pompeo: The former secretary of state kinda, sorta suggested late Thursday that the party should move on from Trumpism — or at least from Trump’s constant social media score-settling, which has been pervasive since Election Day. “Conservatives are elected when we deliver,” he tweeted. “Not when we just rail on social media. That’s how we can win.” (Previous ranking: 9)
8. Nikki Haley: After the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, Haley was one of the biggest voices making a pragmatic case that the party needed to move on from Trump. (Like others, she quickly backed off.) But even as Trumpism suffered another big setback on Tuesday and some in the party argue it’s a losing cause, the former United Nations ambassador has been remarkably quiet. She seems to have decided it’s best not to leap too soon. But if others adopt the same posture, it’s far less likely the party makes a clean break and rallies behind another candidate. (Previous ranking: 7)
7. Sen. Ted Cruz: Few were as wrong about the 2022 election as the Texas senator. In a Fox News interview published a day before Election Day, he offered, “I think this is going to be, not just a red wave, but a red tsunami.” Days earlier, he had ridiculed President Biden for predicting Democrats would gain a Senate seat and could hold the House — and both possibilities remain in play. Also worth noting: He dinged Trump for not spending more to help Republicans win. (Previous ranking: 6)
6. Kari Lake: This one is tough. Had the GOP gained as it expected on Election Day, the Arizona gubernatorial candidate would have rocketed up this list. Perhaps more than anyone not named Trump — and more than DeSantis, we’d argue — she gives the own-the-libs-first crowd exactly what it wants. She continued to bear-hug Trumpism and election denialism late into the 2022 campaign, even as many in the party opted for a more moderate tack. But that also might have cost her: Right now, it’s not clear that she’s actually going to win her race. If she doesn’t, she’s off this list for obvious reasons. If she does, though, don’t underestimate how well her style could play in 2024 — or her prospects as a Trump running mate if he gets to choose one. (Previous ranking: n/a)
5. Sen. Tim Scott: While all the focus has been on DeSantis’s performance Tuesday, the South Carolina senator quietly racked up an even more decisive win — defeating his opponent by 26 points — albeit in a redder state and in a race Democrats never seriously targeted. And while celebrating, Scott nodded to what might come next. He spoke of going to the polls in 2012 with his grandfather, who voted for both Scott and Barack Obama. “I wish he had lived long enough to see perhaps another man of color elected president of the United States,” Scott said. “But this time let it be a Republican.” If Republicans want a steady hand who could be broadly acceptable to many portions of the electorate, Scott can make a pretty compelling case that’s him. (Previous ranking: 4)
4. Gov. Glenn Youngkin: The Virginia governor gets a slight bump up on this list, since his 2021 win in a blue state looks even better now. It’s true that he benefited from more favorable dynamics than were present Tuesday. But the huge 2022 victories for governors like New Hampshire’s Chris Sununu and Ohio’s Mike DeWine only reinforced the electoral benefit of having someone able to craft their brand independent of — without necessarily breaking with — Trumpism. Meanwhile, Youngkin’s lieutenant governor, Winsome Earle-Sears, on Thursday called Trump a “liability” and said she wouldn’t back him in 2024 — something which apparently prompted Trump to send Youngkin a warning signal. (Earle-Sears was elected separately from Youngkin, but this certainly doubles as a nice trial balloon without having it come from Youngkin’s lips.) (Previous ranking: 5)
3. Mike Pence: The former vice president continues to walk the finest of lines on Trump. In an op-ed adapted from his new book this week, Pence ran through what he says happened before and after the Jan. 6 insurrection at the Capitol. He wrote that, five days afterward, he got “terse” with Trump. But he also assured that a president who has shown basically no remorse about that day had expressed some to him. “With genuine sadness in his voice, the president mused: ‘What if we hadn’t had the rally? What if they hadn’t gone to the Capitol?’ ” Pence wrote. “Then he said, ‘It’s too terrible to end like this.’ ” To the extent the GOP truly moves on from Trumpism — again, a major “if” — Pence’s stock rises significantly. But he’ll need lots of Trump backers to forgive him for the sin of not overturning American democracy. (Previous ranking: 3)
2. Donald Trump: The former president remains the leader in the polls, though post-election polling could tell a different tale. But he’s also the first president since the Great Depression to lose the House, the Senate and the presidency in a single term. Indeed, he’s looking more and more like the man who last did that: Herbert Hoover. Democrats kept running against Hoover even after he left the presidency, and turned that into the best midterm of the century for the president’s party. At the very least, Trump is more damaged goods than he’s been at any point in the past six years, because his self-appointed reputation as a winner is in tatters and he can’t keep his foot off the gas. (Previous ranking: 2)
1. Gov. Ron DeSantis: Conversely, the Florida governor’s stock has never been higher, as he emerged from Election Day as perhaps the biggest winner on the GOP side. Among the stats: He defeated Rep. Charlie Crist (D) by nearly 20 points, won the Latino vote handily, and became the first GOP governor candidate to carry Miami-Dade County since Jeb Bush two decades ago. DeSantis had already been closing in on Trump; a YouGov poll last month showed DeSantis within nine points of Trump in a one-on-one matchup. And the biggest shoe to drop in the 2024 GOP race is now whatever DeSantis decides to do next. (Previous ranking: 1)