Hopeful Signs for Democrats in the 2022 Midterms

Surprisingly, Democrats remain tied with Republicans in the generic congressional ballot, which reflects national preferences for the parties’ House candidates. If this is still true on Election Day, Republican gains will be much smaller than they were in 1994 and 2010. Other factors—including the record low number of truly competitive House districts—point in the same direction.

In Senate races, candidate quality matters more. As has happened repeatedly in recent cycles, Republicans appear to have damaged their prospects during primary contests by choosing nominees who have more appeal with their party’s base than with statewide electorates. In Ohio, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona, nominees backed by

Donald Trump

trail their Democratic opponents, several by wide margins.

In the race to succeed

Pat Toomey,

the two-term Republican senator from Pennsylvania, Democrat Lt. Gov.

John Fetterman

leads TV personality

Mehmet Oz

by double digits. In Ohio—which Mr. Trump carried by wide margins in 2016 and 2020—Democratic Rep.

Tim Ryan

has moved out to a 4.5-point lead over political neophyte J.D. Vance. If Democrats can pick up this seat, which Republicans have held since 1999, the GOP’s chances of retaking the Senate will be dealt a possibly fatal blow, even if

Herschel Walker

and

Blake Masters

manage to eke out victories over Democratic incumbents in Georgia and Arizona.

Inflation will do more than any other issue to shape this year’s midterms, and broad-based price increases have tilted polls toward the Republicans since last fall. But even on this issue recent trends have been favorable for Democrats. According to the AAA’s daily survey, gasoline prices have fallen to $3.95 a gallon from a peak of $5.02 two months ago. Lower shipping prices and a strengthening dollar should hold down the prices of imported goods, and bloated inventories will force retailers to give consumers some relief. Although July’s more positive inflation report—which showed a modest reduction in year-over-year inflation, to 8.5% from 9.1%—doesn’t necessarily signal a trend, a sustained decline between now and November could persuade some voters that the worst is behind them.

In midterm elections, turnout is variable—and crucial. When Democratic interest in the 2014 cycle was muted, Republicans added 13 House seats to their already substantial majority. In 2018, by contrast, Democrats surged to the polls to express their opposition to President Trump and gained 41 seats, retaking the majority after eight years in opposition.

Democrats’ enthusiasm about going to the polls this fall had substantially trailed Republicans’—but recent events have narrowed the gap. After the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, Democratic interest in the midterms surged. The passage of the major energy-and-climate bill that many Democrats had given up for dead further lifted their spirits.

The abortion issue could prove a game-changer. As the results of Kansas’ Aug. 2 referendum indicate, the court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization isn’t popular, and severe restrictions on abortion are even less so. Eighty-five percent of Americans favor allowing abortions in cases of rape, incest and risks to the mother’s life, and a strong majority believe that the procedure should be widely available during the first trimester of pregnancy. While only 3 in 10 Americans favor abortion on demand, less than 1 in 10 support an outright ban. Most voters accept abortion in some circumstances but not others, and candidates who appear dogmatic or extreme will pay a price at the polls. By a margin of 25 points, voters favor protections for abortion in their state constitutions—a position backed by most demographic groups and even by one-third of Republicans.

Women care about this issue, which now trails only inflation in their list of top concerns. The pain of loss typically outweighs the satisfaction of gain, and tens of millions of pro-choice women have suffered a loss that until recently seemed unimaginable. If Democrats do better than expected this November, the justices who voted to overturn Roe will be a big piece of the explanation.