Tag Archives: projected

Sports

NFL 2021 Playoff Picture: Here are the 14 projected playoff teams with Rams and Bengals as division winners

Leave a comment

With only three weeks left in the regular season, the playoff picture is still a jumbled mess. So far, only ONE team has officially clinched a playoff berth, which means 13 of the NFL’s 14 playoff spots are available. 

The only team that can sleep comfortably this week is the Green Bay Packers and that’s because they punched their ticket into the playoffs by clinching the NFC North. On the other hand, only five teams have been eliminated, which means 27 teams are still alive, which ties an NFL record for the most teams in contention this late in the season. 

With the NFL playoff race as confusing as ever, we’re here to help you make sense of all the chaos and we’re going to do that by projecting the 14 teams that are going to make the playoffs. The projections are based on data from number-cruncher Stephen Oh of SportsLine.com. Oh plugged some numbers into his SportsLine computer and simulated the rest of the NFL season, and using those numbers, not only were we able to figure out the playoff chances for every team, but we’re also going to project the entire playoff field. 

With that in mind, let’s get to this week’s playoff projections. Actually, before we do that, here’s a mock draft that Texans, Jets, Lions, Jaguars and Bears fans might want to read. Those five teams have officially been eliminated and if you’re a fan of one of those five teams, a mock draft will probably be much more exciting to read than this projection. 

As for everyone else, let’s get to the projection. 

Note: Remember, this is a projection based on how we think the rest of the regular season will play out. If you want to see the current playoff standings, be sure to click here. For a breakdown of the current playoff picture, be sure to click here. SportsLine simulates every game leading up to the playoffs 10,000 times, and you can see the model’s picks both straight up and against the spread here.

AFC Playoff Projection

Here’s a list of the playoff chances for all the other AFC teams (their percentage chances of getting into the playoffs is listed next to them in parentheses): Ravens (48.5%), Steelers (27.7%), Raiders (14.7%), Browns (10.4%), Dolphins (6.4%), Broncos (5.8%), Jaguars (ELIMINATED), Jets (ELIMINATED), Texans (ELIMINATED). 

NFC Playoff Projection

Here’s a list of the playoff chances for all the other NFC teams (their percentage chances of getting into the playoffs is listed next to them in parentheses): Saints (38.3%), Vikings (21%), Washington (8.7%), Falcons (0.8%), Seahawks (0.0%), Giants (0.0%), Panthers (0.0%), Bears (ELIMINATED), Lions (ELIMINATED). 

Wild-card round projection

AFC

(7) Chargers at (2) Patriots
(6) Bills at (3) Titans
(5) Colts at (4) Bengals

Bye: Chiefs

NFC 

(7) Eagles at (2) Buccaneers
(6) 49ers at (3) Cowboys
(5) Cardinals at (4) Rams

Bye: Packers

require.config({"baseUrl":"https://sportsfly.cbsistatic.com/fly-0126/bundles/sportsmediajs/js-build","config":{"version":{"fly/components/accordion":"1.0","fly/components/alert":"1.0","fly/components/base":"1.0","fly/components/carousel":"1.0","fly/components/dropdown":"1.0","fly/components/fixate":"1.0","fly/components/form-validate":"1.0","fly/components/image-gallery":"1.0","fly/components/iframe-messenger":"1.0","fly/components/load-more":"1.0","fly/components/load-more-article":"1.0","fly/components/load-more-scroll":"1.0","fly/components/loading":"1.0","fly/components/modal":"1.0","fly/components/modal-iframe":"1.0","fly/components/network-bar":"1.0","fly/components/poll":"1.0","fly/components/search-player":"1.0","fly/components/social-button":"1.0","fly/components/social-counts":"1.0","fly/components/social-links":"1.0","fly/components/tabs":"1.0","fly/components/video":"1.0","fly/libs/easy-xdm":"2.4.17.1","fly/libs/jquery.cookie":"1.2","fly/libs/jquery.throttle-debounce":"1.1","fly/libs/jquery.widget":"1.9.2","fly/libs/omniture.s-code":"1.0","fly/utils/jquery-mobile-init":"1.0","fly/libs/jquery.mobile":"1.3.2","fly/libs/backbone":"1.0.0","fly/libs/underscore":"1.5.1","fly/libs/jquery.easing":"1.3","fly/managers/ad":"2.0","fly/managers/components":"1.0","fly/managers/cookie":"1.0","fly/managers/debug":"1.0","fly/managers/geo":"1.0","fly/managers/gpt":"4.3","fly/managers/history":"2.0","fly/managers/madison":"1.0","fly/managers/social-authentication":"1.0","fly/utils/data-prefix":"1.0","fly/utils/data-selector":"1.0","fly/utils/function-natives":"1.0","fly/utils/guid":"1.0","fly/utils/log":"1.0","fly/utils/object-helper":"1.0","fly/utils/string-helper":"1.0","fly/utils/string-vars":"1.0","fly/utils/url-helper":"1.0","libs/jshashtable":"2.1","libs/select2":"3.5.1","libs/jsonp":"2.4.0","libs/jquery/mobile":"1.4.5","libs/modernizr.custom":"2.6.2","libs/velocity":"1.2.2","libs/dataTables":"1.10.6","libs/dataTables.fixedColumns":"3.0.4","libs/dataTables.fixedHeader":"2.1.2","libs/dateformat":"1.0.3","libs/waypoints/infinite":"3.1.1","libs/waypoints/inview":"3.1.1","libs/waypoints/jquery.waypoints":"3.1.1","libs/waypoints/sticky":"3.1.1","libs/jquery/dotdotdot":"1.6.1","libs/jquery/flexslider":"2.1","libs/jquery/lazyload":"1.9.3","libs/jquery/maskedinput":"1.3.1","libs/jquery/marquee":"1.3.1","libs/jquery/numberformatter":"1.2.3","libs/jquery/placeholder":"0.2.4","libs/jquery/scrollbar":"0.1.6","libs/jquery/tablesorter":"2.0.5","libs/jquery/touchswipe":"1.6.18","libs/jquery/ui/jquery.ui.core":"1.11.4","libs/jquery/ui/jquery.ui.draggable":"1.11.4","libs/jquery/ui/jquery.ui.mouse":"1.11.4","libs/jquery/ui/jquery.ui.position":"1.11.4","libs/jquery/ui/jquery.ui.slider":"1.11.4","libs/jquery/ui/jquery.ui.sortable":"1.11.4","libs/jquery/ui/jquery.ui.touch-punch":"0.2.3","libs/jquery/ui/jquery.ui.autocomplete":"1.11.4","libs/jquery/ui/jquery.ui.accordion":"1.11.4","libs/jquery/ui/jquery.ui.tabs":"1.11.4","libs/jquery/ui/jquery.ui.menu":"1.11.4","libs/jquery/ui/jquery.ui.dialog":"1.11.4","libs/jquery/ui/jquery.ui.resizable":"1.11.4","libs/jquery/ui/jquery.ui.button":"1.11.4","libs/jquery/ui/jquery.ui.tooltip":"1.11.4","libs/jquery/ui/jquery.ui.effects":"1.11.4","libs/jquery/ui/jquery.ui.datepicker":"1.11.4"}},"shim":{"liveconnection/managers/connection":{"deps":["liveconnection/libs/sockjs-0.3.4"]},"liveconnection/libs/sockjs-0.3.4":{"exports":"SockJS"},"libs/setValueFromArray":{"exports":"set"},"libs/getValueFromArray":{"exports":"get"},"fly/libs/jquery.mobile-1.3.2":["version!fly/utils/jquery-mobile-init"],"libs/backbone.marionette":{"deps":["jquery","version!fly/libs/underscore","version!fly/libs/backbone"],"exports":"Marionette"},"fly/libs/underscore-1.5.1":{"exports":"_"},"fly/libs/backbone-1.0.0":{"deps":["version!fly/libs/underscore","jquery"],"exports":"Backbone"},"libs/jquery/ui/jquery.ui.tabs-1.11.4":["jquery","version!libs/jquery/ui/jquery.ui.core","version!fly/libs/jquery.widget"],"libs/jquery/flexslider-2.1":["jquery"],"libs/dataTables.fixedColumns-3.0.4":["jquery","version!libs/dataTables"],"libs/dataTables.fixedHeader-2.1.2":["jquery","version!libs/dataTables"],"https://sports.cbsimg.net/js/CBSi/app/VideoPlayer/AdobePass-min.js":["https://sports.cbsimg.net/js/CBSi/util/Utils-min.js"]},"map":{"*":{"adobe-pass":"https://sports.cbsimg.net/js/CBSi/app/VideoPlayer/AdobePass-min.js","facebook":"https://connect.facebook.net/en_US/sdk.js","facebook-debug":"https://connect.facebook.net/en_US/all/debug.js","google":"https://apis.google.com/js/plusone.js","google-platform":"https://apis.google.com/js/client:platform.js","google-csa":"https://www.google.com/adsense/search/async-ads.js","google-javascript-api":"https://www.google.com/jsapi","google-client-api":"https://apis.google.com/js/api:client.js","gpt":"https://securepubads.g.doubleclick.net/tag/js/gpt.js","newsroom":"https://c2.taboola.com/nr/cbsinteractive-cbssports/newsroom.js","recaptcha":"https://www.google.com/recaptcha/api.js?onload=loadRecaptcha&render=explicit","recaptcha_ajax":"https://www.google.com/recaptcha/api/js/recaptcha_ajax.js","supreme-golf":"https://sgapps-staging.supremegolf.com/search/assets/js/bundle.js","taboola":"https://cdn.taboola.com/libtrc/cbsinteractive-cbssports/loader.js","twitter":"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js","video-avia":"https://vidtech.cbsinteractive.com/avia-js/1.9.0/player/avia.min.js","video-avia-cvui":"https://vidtech.cbsinteractive.com/avia-js/1.9.0/legacy/cvui/cvui.min.js","video-ima3":"https://imasdk.googleapis.com/js/sdkloader/ima3.js","video-ima3-dai":"https://imasdk.googleapis.com/js/sdkloader/ima3_dai.js","video-utils":"https://sports.cbsimg.net/js/CBSi/util/Utils-min.js","video-vast-tracking":"https://vidtech.cbsinteractive.com/sb55/vast-js/vtg-vast-client.js"}},"waitSeconds":300});



Read original article here

Sports

Brett McMurphy’s Predictions with Projected Spreads for Week 14

Leave a comment

Credit:

Alika Jenner/Getty Images. Pictured: Javon Baker (5) of the Alabama Crimson Tide.

Week 14 College Football Bowl Projections

Entering the final weekend, there are 83 bowl-eligible teams for 82 bowl spots. The good news: no teams with losing records will be needed to fill any bowls. The bad news: one 6-6 bowl-eligible Group of Five team will not play in a bowl.

So, who will? As far as the College Football Playoff, I’m projecting — and this is dangerous — that the favorites will win their conference title games: Georgia over Alabama (SEC), Oklahoma State over Baylor (Big 12), Michigan over Iowa (Big Ten) and Cincinnati over Houston (AAC).

If that happens, I’m projecting the College Football Playoff semifinals will feature No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Cincinnati in the Orange Bowl and No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Oklahoma State in the Cotton Bowl.

There are obviously dozens (hundreds?) of chaos scenarios besides what I listed above, but I’m going with the most likely outcome.

In that case, rounding out the New Year’s Six bowls would be: Utah vs. Ohio State (Rose), Alabama vs. Baylor (Sugar), Ole Miss vs. Pitt (Peach) and Michigan State vs. Notre Dame (Fiesta).

The College Football Playoff pairings will be announced on Sunday along with the remaining bowl matchups, although three teams have already officially accepted bids: East Carolina to the Military and Middle Tennessee vs. Toledo in the Bahamas Bowl.

Each bowl projection includes the projected point spread for each game based on Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s updated college football betting power ratings.

Updated College Football Bowl Game Predictions

CFP Semifinals

New Year’s Six Bowls

Other Bowls

Teams highlighted and in bold have officially accepted bowl bids.

* The highest-rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in the Fiesta Bowl if it does not qualify for College Football Playoff.

How would you rate this article?

Read original article here

Entertainment

Daniel Craig’s ‘No Time To Die’ projected to bring in $60M in first weekend at the box office

Leave a comment

Check out what’s clicking on FoxBusiness.com.

The wait is over, as the 25th Bond finally hit US movie screens yesterday, grossing $23.3M, including $6.3M in previews, on its way to a weekend of $60M at 4,407 theaters.

This is where tracking spotted Daniel Craig’s swan song as 007, and as we continually wrote, if Bond was going to overperform, it would mean that an overabundance of older moviegoers (45+) came out. Bond inherently is a property that skews older, and not younger like the Marvel properties. CNBC brazenly, and incorrectly, declared that No Time to Die was poised to make $100M at the domestic B.O., and that number was never in any rival studio or MGM/United Artist Releasing’s calculations. Even though advance ticket sales were outpacing Venom: Let There Be Carnage, in the pandemic era all box office forecasting has been thrown off course. That, in addition to the fact that in general, pandemic moviegoers make their decisions to go to the theater largely that day, not in advance.

The multiple release date changes on Bond and the publicity of the film being Craig’s last in the tuxedo certainly hyped up box office expectations, but understand that this was always IP intended for older moviegoers. It was never expected to be a Marvel movie, and many look back at Skyfall as an anomaly, given how it truly tapped into Bond’s past in a way that no other title in the franchise did. Rival distribution brass aren’t throwing any shade on No Time to Die‘s opening, even though it’s the third-best, currently behind Skyfall ($88.3M) and Spectre ($70.4M); in fact, they’re thrilled.

“In an October where Venom 2 can open to $90M, then Bond to $60M, Halloween Kills to $40M, and Dune to $30M+, that’s fantastic,” said one non-MGM suit to me yesterday. Again, Monday morning isn’t a time for streamers to take a victory lap: Moviegoing is waking up, especially coming off of last weekend. Consider the fact that No Time to Die‘s opening is right around where Mission: Impossible – Fallout ($61.2M) and Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation ($55.5M) opened stateside. That’s the wheelhouse for these older-leaning spy action films.

DANIEL CRAIG AND RAMI MALEK SURPRISE AUDIENCE AT BURBANK IMAX BEFORE ‘NO TIME TO DIE’ SHOWING

‘No Time To Die’ starring Daniel Craig grossed $23.3 million on its opening day in the United States. (Getty Images)

Other things to know about Bond:

–This is the longest Bond ever at 2 hours and 43 minutes. While time never slowed down box office for the latest Star Wars or Avengers movies, it does play into whether or not the older folks come out. Comscore/Screen Engine shows that 37% of No Time to Die‘s ticket-buyers were over 45, proportionally a higher share than Spectre‘s 29%.

—No Time to Die‘s opening day is the fourth-best among the Craig titles, behind Skyfall‘s $32.7M, Spectre‘s $27.4M, and Quantum of Solace‘s $27M. The pic’s first day (plus previews) is ahead of Mission: Impossible 6‘s opening day ($22.8M) and Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation ($20.3M).

–Bond always makes his lion’s share abroad, and many are very encouraged and thrilled by the pic’s offshore estimated tally through last week of $150M. Nancy will have an update soon on how No Time to Die is doing this weekend. Seventy-seven percent of Spectre‘s global B.O. came from foreign, 73% for Skyfall, 71% for Quantum of Solace, and 73% for Casino Royale. I hear the Imax holds in offshore markets are fantastic: ~-20% on Scandinavia, -30% in the UK, and -20% in Singapore and Taiwan.

‘NO TIME TO DIE’ THRIVING WITH PROJECTED $113M OFFSHORE BOW- INTERNATIONAL BOX OFFICE

–The latest Bond gets an A- CinemaScore, which is the same as Spectre, Casino Royale, and even Pierce Brosnan’s finale as Bond, Die Another Day. It’s higher than Quantum of Solace, the lowest-graded of the Craig movies at B-, yet under Skyfall, which landed an A. No Time to Die clocked an 81% positive score on PostTrak, and a 62% definite recommend. Males came out at 64%, with 57% over 35. Fifty-two percent were Caucasian, 17% Latino and Hispanic, 13% Black, and 18% Asian/other. The movie played best on the coasts, and saw Imax and PLFs delivering close to 40% of its ticket sales to date.

–Bond movies are a slow burn at the box office, and known for their legs. Casino Royale had over a 4x multiple off its domestic opening, Skyfall 3.4x, and Spectre close to 3x. Second weekend holds on previous Craig Bond pics were -52% on Spectre and -53% on Skyfall. 

EntTelligence reports that approximately 4.5M patrons are estimated to see No Time to Die this weekend.  Over 400k came out during pre-release shows. Last weekend’s Venom: Let There Be Carnage had 24% more seats in Large Format and 17% more overall next to No Time to Die, which is also on account of the Sony/Marvel title’s shorter run-time. On opening day, 22% of patrons saw No Time to Die in Large Format vs. Venom 2‘s opening day which saw 26% from those auditoriums.

Sony’s Venom: Let There Be Carnage took in $8.85M on Friday, -76% from a week ago, on its way to a $31.1M second weekend, -65% for a running total by EOD Sunday of $140.8M, which, compared to the first Venom‘s ten-day running total, is just -1% behind; which is really great. Right there that speaks volumes about the state of moviegoing, and the expanded marketplace. The first Venom saw a second weekend decline of -56% of $35M.

‘NO TIME TO DIE’ REVIEW: DANIEL CRAIG DELIVERS A THRILLING AND EMOTIONAL EXIT TO HIS JAMES BOND

Busting into the top 10 this weekend is A24’s horror-fantasy Lamb, from Valdimar Jóhannsson and starring Noomi Rapace. The movie, which debuted In Certain Regard at Cannes and has 88% certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, follows a childless couple in rural Iceland who make an alarming discovery one day in their sheep barn. They soon face the consequences of defying the will of nature. Booked at 583 theaters, the pic chalked up a $415K Friday on its way to an estimated $1.1M opening. On the plus side, it’s a number that’s ahead of the $1M debut of Focus Features’ The Card Counter, which opened to $1M at 580; that pic only legging out to $2.6M. On the downside, I hear the core runs in NY, LA and Boston were halfway decent.

Greenwich Entertainment has Jimmy Chin and Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi’s NatGeo feature The Rescue in eight markets and five screens. I hear the pic did a great $12,9K at the Angelika in NYC. The pic, about the Thai Cave rescue, did around $25K on Friday, and could do around $81K for the opening weekend, for a notable pandemic $16,2K per screen. The docu is 98% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes.

Read original article here

Sports

Dodgers’ projected postseason roster has already taken shape – Orange County Register

Leave a comment

LOS ANGELES ― Now that the Dodgers have clinched a postseason berth, it’s customary to view their remaining regular-season games as an opportunity to refine roster roles with an eye toward October.

Toss that custom out the window.

The Dodgers’ starting lineup, rotation, closer and set-up roles are all but cinched. Their injured list has been whittled to one player projected to return between now and the end of the season, outfielder AJ Pollock. The question of who will make the Dodgers’ 26-man postseason roster offers less suspense than their pursuit of the San Francisco Giants.

“I think we have a lot of good options,” Manager Dave Roberts said. “It’s fun to talk about, I guess. It always comes down to the extra bench player, the relief (pitchers), how you’re going to do that.”

If Pollock returns late next week as expected, the Dodgers have five clear candidates to fill out their bench.

Catcher Austin Barnes and first baseman Albert Pujols are shoo-ins as right-handed bats. Cody Bellinger and Gavin Lux have filled in capably in the outfield on this homestand, possibly doing enough offensively to start against right-handed pitchers once Pollock and Chris Taylor return from their respective injuries. If the Dodgers opt to keep a fifth player on their bench, Matt Beaty figures to be that player.

Either Walker Buehler or Max Scherzer will start Game 1 of the postseason. Clayton Kershaw – if he continues his progress back from an elbow injury – and Julio Urías would follow in a seven-game series.

Blake Treinen has been the best set-up man to Kenley Jansen since Brandon Morrow in 2017. Joe Kelly isn’t far behind on the bullpen depth chart. Alex Vesia has become Roberts’ top choice against left-handed hitters in late-game, high-leverage situations. Phil Bickford is the best of Andrew Friedman’s many midseason bullpen acquisitions.

Corey Knebel, David Price, Brusdar Graterol and Tony Gonsolin all have experience pitching out of the bullpen in the postseason. All four can make it if the Dodgers opt to keep 13 pitchers on the staff.

INJURY UPDATES

Taylor was available off the bench for the first time since he injured his neck in last Friday’s victory over the San Diego Padres. Taylor was likely to go on the 10-day injured list Wednesday if his neck had not improved.

Taylor and Pollock both took part in pregame batting practice on the field. Pollock, who’s expected to play minor league rehabilitation games in Arizona beginning next Monday, is a week to 10 days away from rejoining the major league team, Roberts said.

LINE ’EM UP

The Cincinnati Reds are among a handful of teams the Dodgers might meet in a potential National League wild card game if they fail to win the division. Roberts chose not to shuffle his rotation to hide Buehler or Scherzer, one of whom would start the one-game playoff.

Buehler will start Friday against the Reds’ Luis Castillo. Scherzer will start Saturday opposite the Reds’ Sonny Gray. Kershaw will start Sunday against another left-hander, Wade Miley.

ALSO

Actor Edward James Olmos narrated a stirring pregame tribute to Fernando Valenzuela, who was feted on the field along with his family on the occasion of his bobblehead night. The retired pitcher-turned-broadcaster received a ceremonial first pitch from his granddaughter. … Scherzer, Pujols, Justin Turner, Kershaw and Buehler opted to wear No. 21 jerseys on Roberto Clemente Day across Major League Baseball. … Clemente, whom the Dodgers lost to the Pirates in the 1954 Rule 5 draft, wore No. 21 for most of his career in Pittsburgh.

UP NEXT

Dodgers (RHP Walker Buehler, 14-3, 2.32 ERA) at Reds (RHP Luis Castillo, 7-15, 4.24 ERA), Friday, 4:10 p.m. PT, SNLA, 570 AM

Read original article here

Science

Dramatic Surge in U.S. Coastal Flooding Projected to Start in 2030s

Leave a comment

High-tide flooding in Honolulu. Credit: Hawaii Sea Grant King Tides Project

In the mid-2030s, every U.S. coast will experience rapidly increasing high-tide floods, when a lunar cycle will amplify rising sea levels caused by climate change.

High-tide floods – also called nuisance floods or sunny day floods – are already a familiar problem in many cities on the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported a total of more than 600 such floods in 2019. Starting in the mid-2030s, however, the alignment of rising sea levels with a lunar cycle will cause coastal cities all around the U.S. to begin a decade of dramatic increases in flood numbers, according to the first study that takes into account all known oceanic and astronomical causes for floods.

Led by the members of the NASA Sea Level Change Science Team from the University of Hawaii, the new study shows that high tides will exceed known flooding thresholds around the country more often. What’s more, the floods will sometimes occur in clusters lasting a month or longer, depending on the positions of the Moon, Earth, and the Sun. When the Moon and Earth line up in specific ways with each other and the Sun, the resulting gravitational pull and the ocean’s corresponding response may leave city dwellers coping with floods every day or two.

“Low-lying areas near sea level are increasingly at risk and suffering due to the increased flooding, and it will only get worse,” said NASA Administrator Bill Nelson. “The combination of the Moon’s gravitational pull, rising sea levels, and climate change will continue to exacerbate coastal flooding on our coastlines and across the world. NASA’s Sea Level Change Team is providing crucial information so that we can plan, protect, and prevent damage to the environment and people’s livelihoods affected by flooding.”

“It’s the accumulated effect over time that will have an impact,” said Phil Thompson, an assistant professor at the University of Hawaii and the lead author of the new study, published this month in Nature Climate Change. Thompson pointed out that because high-tide floods involve a small amount of water compared to hurricane storm surges, there’s a tendency to view them as a less significant problem overall. “But if it floods 10 or 15 times a month, a business can’t keep operating with its parking lot under water. People lose their jobs because they can’t get to work. Seeping cesspools become a public health issue.”

Why will cities on such widely separated coastlines begin to experience these higher rates of flooding at almost the same time? The main reason is a regular wobble in the Moon’s orbit that takes 18.6 years to complete. There’s nothing new or dangerous about the wobble; it was first reported in 1728. What’s new is how one of the wobble’s effects on the Moon’s gravitational pull – the main cause of Earth’s tides – will combine with rising sea levels resulting from the planet’s warming.

In half of the Moon’s 18.6-year cycle, Earth’s regular daily tides are suppressed: High tides are lower than normal, and low tides are higher than normal. In the other half of the cycle, tides are amplified: High tides get higher, and low tides get lower. Global sea level rise pushes high tides in only one direction – higher. So half of the 18.6-year lunar cycle counteracts the effect of sea level rise on high tides, and the other half increases the effect.

The Moon is in the tide-amplifying part of its cycle now. However, along most U.S. coastlines, sea levels have not risen so much that even with this lunar assist, high tides regularly top flooding thresholds. It will be a different story the next time the cycle comes around to amplify tides again, in the mid-2030s. Global sea level rise will have been at work for another decade. The higher seas, amplified by the lunar cycle, will cause a leap in flood numbers on almost all U.S. mainland coastlines, Hawaii, and Guam. Only far northern coastlines, including Alaska’s, will be spared for another decade or longer because these land areas are rising due to long-term geological processes.

The researchers uncovered these tipping points in flood numbers by studying 89 tide gauge locations in every coastal U.S. state and territory but Alaska. They created a new statistical framework that mapped NOAA’s widely used sea level rise scenarios and flooding thresholds, the number of times those thresholds have been exceeded annually, astronomical cycles, and statistical representations of other processes, such as El Niño events, that are known to affect tides. They projected results to 2080.

Ben Hamlington of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California is a co-author of the paper and also the leader of NASA’s Sea Level Change Team. He notes that the findings of the new study are a vital resource for coastal urban planners, who may be focused on preparing for extreme events rather than more high-tide floods.

“From a planning perspective, it’s important to know when we’ll see an increase,” Hamlington said. “Understanding that all your events are clustered in a particular month, or you might have more severe flooding in the second half of a year than the first – that’s useful information.” A high-tide flood tool developed by Thompson already exists on the NASA team’s sea level portal, a resource for decision-makers and the general public. The flood tool will be updated in the near future with the findings from this study.



Read original article here

US

Eric Adams projected to win New York City Democratic mayoral primary – AP

Leave a comment

Eric Adams, the Brooklyn Borough president, is projected as the winner of the New York City Democratic mayoral primary, according to the Associated Press. The former New York City Police Department captain ran as a more moderate Democrat and made curbing crime his central issue.

Adams will be favored in the general election matchup against Republican Curtis Sliwa because of the high percentage of Democrats and liberals in New York City. If Adams wins in November, he’ll be New York City’s second Black mayor.

He jumped out to a lead on primary night as the first choice of voters who cast ballots during in-person voting. Adams held on to that lead as various rounds of ranked-choice voting tallies were conducted. 


AP: Eric Adams wins NYC mayoral primary race

06:33

The Board of Elections released updated results on Tuesday night that included the bulk of absentee ballots and showed Adams ahead of his closest rival, former New York City Sanitation Commissioner Kathryn Garcia, by 8,426 votes. 

“While there are still some very small amounts of votes to be counted, the results are clear: an historic, diverse, five-borough coalition led by working-class New Yorkers has led us to victory in the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City,” Adams said in a statement. “Now we must focus on winning in November so that we can deliver on the promise of this great city for those who are struggling, who are underserved, and who are committed to a safe, fair, affordable future for all New Yorkers.”

New York City’s first citywide ranked-choice election had its bumps. Last week the Board of Elections had to retract unofficial ranked-choice results from in-person voting because test ballots were accidentally included in the final tally. The board released the correct results the following day, showing Adams with a two-point lead over Garcia with just the in-person votes tallied. 

While Adams’ lead tightened on Tuesday after the majority of absentee ballots were included, he still maintained a one-point lead over Garcia. She congratulated Adams on Wednesday morning and celebrated what she had accomplished in the race.

“We proved that you can compete even without decades of being in the political machine,” Garcia said. “This campaign has come closer than any other in history to breaking that glass ceiling and selecting New York City’s first female mayor. We cracked the hell out of it and it’s ready to be broken.”

Civil rights attorney Maya Wiley was eliminated in the second-to-last round of Tuesday’s ranked-choice voting tabulation. Wiley was in second place for most of the rounds, but Garcia passed her by about 12,000 votes after former Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang was eliminated. Yang encouraged his supporters to rank Garcia second on their ballots, a move that seems to have given Garcia an edge over Wiley. 

“We now have an initial and uncertified counting of absentee ballots and tabulation of Rank Choice Voting. It would be an understatement to express dismay at the (Board of Elections’) administration of this election,” Wiley said in a statement. “Today we simply must recommit ourselves to a reformed Board of Elections and build new confidence in how we administer voting in New York City. New York City’s voters deserve better, and the (Board of Elections) must be completely remade following what can only be described as a debacle.”

Wiley said she will have more to say about the next steps “shortly.”

Adams’ projected victory came the same day that New York Governor Andrew Cuomo declared a disaster emergency due to the spike in gun violence. Murders in New York City are up 8.5% compared to last year and shootings are up about 38%. 

Crime was the central issue of Adams’ candidacy. He frequently said during his campaign that the city needs solutions for both intervention — to address the spike in crime — and prevention, which would address some of the root causes of crime. He has also said that he’ll strike a balance between confronting rising crime and ensuring racial justice.

On “CBS This Morning” Wednesday, Adams maintained that New York needs to treat gun violence “as a public health emergency.” He said too many people have “demonized public protection” because “we have too many abusive officers who were allowed to stay.” Adams insisted that he will support NYPD officers, but wants those on the force to put public safety first even if morale is low. 

“I say to my officers, ‘If you don’t want to be on the street anymore, then get off my streets,'” Adams said. “I don’t want to hear someone say because they don’t like what government is doing, (they’re) not going to protect my public.”

“I’m going to have the finest officers. I will have their backs, but they’re going to have the backs of the people of this city,” he added. “We’re not going to make laws that are not going to be hurtful to the public and to our law enforcement officials.”

Adams was beaten by police officers when he was a teenager in South Jamaica, Queens, while he was in custody. He says that inspired him to become a police officer to try to change the department from the inside. 

His opponents criticized him for saying that some controversial police tactics like “stop-and-frisk” can be an important tool for police officers. He assured voters that he would not allow the practice to go back to the way it was used under former mayors Rudy Giuliani and Michael Bloomberg.  A federal judge ruled in 2013 that the NYPD misused the practice in an unconstitutional manner and specifically cited Adams’ testimony against the practice. 

In addition to his career with the NYPD, Adams also served four terms in the New York State Senate. He was elected Brooklyn Borough president in 2013. 

The New York City Board of Elections said Tuesday there are still hundreds of ballots that are eligible to be cured, which means voters can fix issues so the ballots can be counted. The final deadline for some of the ballots to be cured is July 14. After that, the board will proceed with certifying the election results. 

Read original article here