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Reporters give advice on Saquon Barkley, Tony Pollard, Titans RBs

November 27, 2021 Admin Leave a comment

There is great joy and likewise utter misery in choosing streaming options.

As fantasy managers, we’ve all been there. You get caught short at a position because of injuries, COVID-19, bye weeks, etc. Suddenly you’re scanning the waiver wire looking at projected points and matchups, trying to choose between players you know very little about. In some cases their coaches don’t know how they’ll play either.

Of the running backs who played on Thanksgiving Day, a few were primary streaming options this week. In New Orleans, Tony Jones Jr. figured to play a big role with both Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram unable to go. And while Jones did get 16 carries, a nice volume for a streaming option, which is half the battle, he wasn’t targeted in the passing game and rushed for only 27 yards. And 2.7 fantasy points does not a great streaming option make.

As it turns out, the better streaming option from the Saints was Ty Montgomery. He got six carries and seven targets in the passing game that resulted in five receptions. He mustered only 45 yards, but put it with the receptions in a PPR league and Montgomery was a much better option than Jones.

ESPN fantasy sports researcher Kyle Soppe, who is responsible for our 32 questions, noticed all of the interesting happenings on Thursday, and has questions about Montgomery as well running backs you possibly streamed such as Matt Breida of Buffalo and Tony Pollard of Dallas.

Riding byes this week are Kansas City and Arizona. So questions about the respective West Division leaders will resume next week. Away we go.

AFC EAST

Is Matt Breida’s role in this offense something we should expect to continue to grow?

Yes, but more production doesn’t mean he will be seeing the field as much as a top running back. This version of the Bills’ offense will never have a true No. 1 back, but Breida is certainly seeing an uptick in opportunities and has brought much-needed speed. He has scored at least one touchdown in two of the last three games and is primed to continue to have more opportunities. — Alaina Getzenberg

It has been every other week for Myles Gaskin. After 23 carries on Sunday, can we finally count on him for consecutive good games?

You can count on him for a good workload — and you can work with that in fantasy football. Miami’s win in Week 11 marked Gaskin’s fifth straight game with at least 12 carries and 15 total touches. Even more promising? He has 17 red-zone touches over the past three weeks — 12 of which came inside the 10-yard line. With Malcolm Brown not expected to return this week, Gaskin should be the Dolphins’ unquestioned RB1 yet again. — Marcel Louis-Jacques

If you have to pick one running back from this offense the rest of the way, who would it be?

Damien Harris. While rookie Rhamondre Stevenson is coming on strong, and a case could be made for him to be the choice, Harris is still 1A, and experience tilts the needle in his direction ever so slightly. Rushing touchdowns this season: Harris 7, Stevenson 3. — Mike Reiss

Elijah Moore seems to be coming into his own. Do you expect his growth to continue this season? How good can he be in 2022?

Moore could be the Jets’ WR1 in 2022, ahead of Corey Davis. That’s how much the organization thinks of him. He has 24 receptions, 336 yards and four TDs over the last four games. Don’t be surprised, though, if his production dips temporarily. QB Zach Wilson, who returns from a four-game knee injury, didn’t have much success with Moore early in the year; Davis was his go-to receiver. It may take some time before Wilson and Moore build their chemistry. — Rich Cimini

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Matthew Berry and Field Yates break down Elijah Moore’s emergence as a top-scoring fantasy wide receiver in recent weeks.

AFC NORTH

Safe to label Devonta Freeman as the leader of this backfield for Week 12? For the rest of the season?

Absolutely for Week 12, and most likely for the rest of the season. Freeman has shown the most burst of all the Ravens running backs signed to help fill the void of the injury-filled backfield. It was noticeable when Freeman still received 60% of the running back carries, even after Latavius Murray returned from his ankle injury. Ravens coach John Harbaugh has always talked about going with the hot hand, and Freeman is the hottest of the backs. But, if he slows down, Baltimore could turn to Murray, who is more of an inside-the-tackles runner. — Jamison Hensley

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Field Yates and Matthew Berry break down Devonta Freeman’s recent success in fantasy.

That’s three high-usage games out of four for Tyler Boyd. Do you think he can sustain consistent, albeit low upside, value moving forward?

The Bengals have been very hard to predict. What we believed the offensive philosophy might be this season has shifted and adapted throughout the course of the season. There does seem to be some optimism about Boyd maintaining his current usage rate. Bengals coach Zac Taylor took the blame for Boyd’s two-target outing against Cleveland in Week 9. Bengals QB Joe Burrow called Boyd his comfort blanket, which will always make him a valuable resource. — Ben Baby

D’Ernest Johnson was an afterthought with Nick Chubb back; safe to cut ties with him if the roster spot is needed?

Yes, safe to cut ties with Johnson. Especially with Chubb’s wingman, Kareem Hunt, on the way back from the calf injury. — Jake Trotter

Sunday night was Chase Claypool’s best game in over a month; safe to call him healthy and poised for a strong finish to the season?

He’s healthy, but it’s hard to trust any Steelers receiver’s fantasy output. Ben Roethlisberger likes to spread the ball around, though Diontae Johnson and Claypool are the two he trusts the most. Still, the Steelers utilize Najee Harris in the run game, and Pat Freiermuth has been coming on strong in recent weeks, too. Claypool is worth keeping around on a fantasy team if there’s a bench spot because he could get hot, but it’s too soon to tell just how strong he’ll finish the season. — Brooke Pryor

AFC SOUTH

Brandin Cooks has found producing difficult lately; does it continue, or can he regain his early season form?

Don’t expect Cooks to replicate what he did in the first three weeks — coach David Culley said “it wasn’t intentional” for Cooks to have such a high target share early in the season — but his numbers should be somewhere in the middle. Culley said teams are doubling Cooks way more as the season has gone on, but given the receiver’s chemistry with Tyrod Taylor, his production should increase. — Sarah Barshop

Make your case for Jonathan Taylor as the top overall pick next season.

The numbers don’t lie. Taylor not only leads the NFL in rushing yards (1,122) by nearly 200 yards over the injured Derrick Henry, he leads the entire league in yards from scrimmage (1,444) by more than 300 yards over the next-closest player — Rams receiver Cooper Kupp (1,136) to go with 13 total touchdowns. Enough said. — Mike Wells

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Field Yates and Matthew Berry react to Jonathan Taylor’s five-touchdown performance for the Colts on Sunday.

Do you think James Robinson can take advantage of a favorable upcoming schedule?

That depends on how banged up he is. He’s dealing with heel and knee injuries, and unless the Jaguars shut him down for a couple weeks he’ll have to battle through them every week. You could see in last Sunday’s game against San Francisco that Robinson doesn’t have the same burst through the line of scrimmage that he did before the injury. Another issue for Robinson is the Jaguars are having a hard time consistently moving the ball and are falling behind by double digits, which effectively takes the run game out of play. — Michael DiRocco

Does any Titans running back need to be rostered?

No! Don’t be fooled by how the Titans collectively topped 100 yards rushing last week. That came against a Texans’ defense that was allowing 136 rushing yards per game entering last week. D’Onta Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard have flashed, but they’ll continue to be part of a committee. The stats simply aren’t relevant enough to warrant rostering any Titans back, especially with no one emerging as a candidate to get 15+ carries. — Turron Davenport

AFC WEST

Is Courtland Sutton going to see more looks, or will his low production/usage in games with Jerry Jeudy active continue?

If the Broncos really self-scouted during the bye and stick to what they do best on offense, Sutton’s productivity should increase. But it’s up to the Broncos. If they put quarterback Teddy Bridgewater under center more, use play action more, they will have more success pushing the ball down the field in the passing game. In the win over the Cowboys they had a season-best 190 yards rushing, as well as their only game of the season with multiple completions of more than 40 yards. If they run the ball a little more, the opportunities for Sutton to have impact out of the play action will rise. — Jeff Legwold

Are you buying DeSean Jackson as a weekly upside threat (102 yards, but tied for fifth on the team in targets on Thanksgiving)?

Once on Thanksgiving and twice on Sundays. Jackson was signed to bring that big-play possibility and production, and produce he did at Dallas. The trust is there with QB Derek Carr, who said it was “fun” to throw the soon-to-be 35-year-old wide out the ball. And with another old NFC East rival in Washington up next, that chip on Jackson’s shoulder will only loom larger. — Paul Gutierrez

Are you buying the chunk run plays we saw Sunday night from Justin Herbert as a real part of his game moving forward?

Not necessarily, but it worked well in this instance and his sliding game was on point. If the gaps are there and the defense is giving it to him, he proved what an asset his wheels are. But little of that was by design. — Shelley Smith

NFC EAST

Give us your best guess for average touches per game moving forward for Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard.

If the Cowboys were in a 60-40 split between Elliott and Pollard for a good spell earlier in the season, it will now be closer to 50-50. But don’t confuse this with any ineffectiveness from Elliott. He is dealing with a bone bruise in his knee that is limiting him. He is trying to play through it, and the Cowboys are managing his workload if not so much his snap count. With a longer break after next Thursday’s game vs. the Saints, the Cowboys hope that will serve as a mini-bye for Elliott. The running game as a whole, however, needs to improve. Aside from a 31-yard run vs. the Chiefs, Pollard’s yard per carry average is not much different than Elliott’s. — Todd Archer

What are your weekly touch expectations moving forward for Saquon Barkley on a 3-7 team?

Barkley played 32 snaps (59.3%) and had 12 touches in Tampa Bay following a six-week absence. It would have been more if it wasn’t a blowout in the fourth quarter. Barkley should creep closer to 20 touches and 75% of the snaps on Sunday in Philadelphia. Expect his role to increase only as he gets healthier. It should mean for some big games. — Jordan Raanan

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Field Yates, Stephania Bell and Matthew Berry react to Saquon Barkley’s performance in the Giants’ loss to the Buccaneers.

The backfield rotation seemed to vary by quarter. Do you expect any RB to earn the feature role, or is this a committee that will be more of a headache than anything?

Miles Sanders is the starter when healthy and will get the bulk of the snaps, but Jordan Howard has earned a role and could siphon a lot of the touchdowns given his effectiveness as a short-yardage back. Howard is expected to be out at least this week because of injury. However, Boston Scott could be featured given his success against the Giants in the past (222 rush yards, 5 TDs in 4 games). — Tim McManus

Antonio Gibson looked like “the guy” in Week 10, not so much in Week 11. Moving forward, can we count on him for 15 touches a game, or is it going to vary weekly?

Actually, he looked a lot like “The Guy” in Week 11 — in the second half, that is. That’s when he gained 76 of his 95 yards, following a three-series benching at the end of the first half after he had fumbled. The fumbling issues will be worth watching down the stretch; he has fumbled five times this season, losing three. If it continues to happen, beware. Short of that, yes you can expect 15 touches a game — provided his shin holds up. They like how Gibson is running – more physical, pressing the hole better. They’ve found an offensive identity and it centers around their run game. The other backs — J.D. McKissic and Jaret Patterson — have shown they can be effective. But Gibson remains the primary focus. — John Keim

NFC NORTH

Cole Kmet’s role is on the rise: Can we count on him weekly to produce viable numbers?

I think so. Kmet is a viable member of the offense who is a proven pass-catcher. Unfortunately, he often got lost in the shuffle earlier in the season because the Bears were such a mess on offense. Kmet, however, has emerged over the past couple of weeks and I see no reason for that to change. To clarify, he isn’t going to put up eye-popping statistics. But viable numbers? Absolutely. — Jeff Dickerson

How many touches should we expect from Jamaal Williams if D’Andre Swift were to miss time?

On average, even with Swift, Williams is already seeing a little over 12 touches per game. On Thanksgiving, he got 15 carries for 65 yards with another five receptions for 18 yards, so that would be around the number I would expect him to see if Swift were to remain out. Although he’s not as gifted as Swift, he has proven that he’s more than capable of carrying that load as a dual threat, if necessary. — Eric Woodyard

Anything to the heavy Marquez Valdes-Scantling usage against the Vikings, or was it simply a one-week matchup thing?

Allen Lazard’s absence due to a shoulder injury helped get him more in the plan. Also, MVS’ hamstring injury finally appears to be completely healed. He could have trouble this week, though, because all the injuries on the offensive line might force Aaron Rodgers to get the ball out much faster, which means fewer deep-ball chances for MVS. — Rob Demovsky

Minnesota’s final four games of the season: Bears (twice), Packers and Rams. Can Kirk Cousins be a top-10 QB over that valuable stretch?

Yes. Cousins ranks top 10 in all the major passing categories (passer rating, QBR, completion percentage, yards, touchdowns) and his 21-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio is insanely good. Mike Zimmer wants his quarterback to keep “going for the jugular” despite throwing two near-interceptions versus Green Bay, and if Cousins can keep the Vikings’ offense humming with this new-found aggressive attitude (PFF has him ranked fourth in expected points added), Minnesota should fare well against two bottom-half defenses in Chicago and Detroit. — Courtney Cronin

NFC SOUTH

Would the return of Calvin Ridley help Kyle Pitts, or would it further hurt his upside by taking targets off his plate?

A return of Calvin Ridley — which is anything but certain as Arthur Smith had no update Monday even though Ridley is now eligible to return off the NFI list — would be beneficial to Kyle Pitts. While it might shrink his target share, it would give Atlanta three players defenses must account for every play — Pitts, Cordarrelle Patterson and Ridley. That alone could leave Pitts in some single-coverage situations, which might lead to more breakout plays. Right now, Pitts is the main target for defenses in the intermediate and deep passing game, and it has shown in his — and Atlanta’s — production. — Michael Rothstein

Is Cam Newton back to being a viable option?

Well, he had two touchdowns on only eight plays in his first outing, and he followed that with two touchdown passes and one rushing touchdown in his first full game. So YES. He’s a viable option. The more he learns this offense the more dangerous he should be. — David Newton

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Matthew Berry explains why he thinks Cam Newton is a borderline QB1 as long as he has the starting job in Carolina.

Can Ty Montgomery work into a weekly role if at least one of Alvin Kamara/Mark Ingram is injured?

No, I think he would need both to be sidelined to make a significant fantasy impact, and I expect one or both to be back next week. But if they do both remain out, Thursday night was a reminder that Montgomery might be just as valuable as Tony Jones Jr. in PPR leagues. And the seven-year vet does deserve credit for being a reliable emergency option at both RB and WR. Remember, he ran for 105 yards in Week 17 last year when the rest of the RB room was wiped out by COVID. — Mike Triplett

Leonard Fournette has impressed as a pass-catcher all season, but his usage is peaking. Can he sustain 6-8 targets per game moving forward?

As long as opposing defenses are hell-bent on stopping the big play downfield — which they have been all year — we’ll continue to see more of Fournette in the short passing game as he’s who Brady trusts the most in the Bucs’ running back room. — Jenna Laine

NFC WEST

The second most productive pass catcher in this offense moving forward will be …

Van Jefferson. Prior to Odell Beckham Jr.’s signing and the season-ending knee injury to Robert Woods, quarterback Matthew Stafford had been looking more often to target the second-year pro and the two have connected on short, intermediate and deep throws. Watch for Stafford to continue to connect with Jefferson, who can be depended on to run crisp routes and hang onto the football. — Lindsey Thiry

A great season for Deebo Samuel is getting better with his usage in the backfield. Can we count on that continuing?

Yes. Here’s the thing, Elijah Mitchell has earned the right to be the team’s primary ball carrier when healthy, but he has struggled to do that. And the Niners love racking up the rushing attempts, so it only stands to reason they’ll keep handing it to Samuel as part of that plan. If nothing else, it’s a guaranteed way to get the ball in the hands of their best player, and that’s always a good thing. — Nick Wagoner

Is there a single player in this offense we can trust right now?

Nope. They’ve scored a combined 13 points in the last two games because Russell Wilson and their passing game have been so off. Wilson continues to say his surgically repaired finger is fine, and his resume over the last decade suggests he’ll snap out of his funk eventually. But who knows when? The closest thing the Seahawks have to a reliable fantasy play right now is Alex Collins, who figures to remain their primary back. But barely getting double-digit touches each week means his ceiling is limited. — Brady Henderson

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The Playbook – Your ultimate fantasy football guide to Week 11

November 19, 2021 Admin Leave a comment

11:18 AM ET

Mike ClayESPN Writer
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- Fantasy football, NFL analyst for ESPN.com
- Member of Pro Football Writers of America
- Founding director of Pro Football Focus Fantasy
- 2013 FSTA award winner for most accurate preseason rankings

Welcome to the Week 11 Fantasy Football Playbook!

This will be your game-by-game guide to the week’s slate of NFL games, featuring score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for both season-long and DFS leagues. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.

The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for borderline starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in both raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.

(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to possible updates during the weekend, though at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)

Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Jonathan Taylor, Stefon Diggs

Carson Wentz has delivered four top-12 fantasy weeks over his last six games, but he’s fresh off a Week 10 dud and will now face a dominant Buffalo defense. He belongs on benches.
Matt Breida exploded for a pair of touchdowns in Week 10, but note that he only played on eight snaps, compared to 25 for Zack Moss and 21 for Devin Singletary. The Buffalo backfield is one to avoid if possible, but Moss remains the preferred flex. Nyheim Hines crashed back to earth last week with his sixth finish in his last seven games outside the top-45 fantasy running backs. He’s a deep-league PPR flex.
You’d be hard-pressed to bench Michael Pittman Jr. (fantasy’s No. 7-scoring WR), but the young wide receiver has a brutal matchup against Tre’Davious White and the Bills this week, so lower your expectations. Cole Beasley’s health limited him to just nine snaps last week, so he’s been downgraded to flex territory for now. Emmanuel Sanders hasn’t had any top-30 fantasy outings since Week 6, but he has a good matchup and is on the WR3 radar this week. Colts’ secondary receivers T.Y. Hilton and Zach Pascal should both be avoided in this matchup.
Dawson Knox returned from injury to play on 45 of 54 snaps last week and, although he was limited to just one target, he remains a good TD candidate, he remains in the TE1 discussion.

Over/Under: 48.5 (4th highest in Week 11)
Win Prob: Bills 75% (4th highest)

Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Marquise Brown, Mark Andrews

Justin Fields delivered a pair of top-10 fantasy outings prior to Chicago’s bye. That provides some optimism that a breakout is underway, but he’s still too risky to consider for your lineups in most formats.
David Montgomery played on 49 of 58 snaps in his Week 9 return and is right back in the every-week RB2 mix. Latavius Murray is expected back from injury this week, but he’ll continue to defer significant touches to both Devonta Freeman and Ty’Son Williams. Note that Le’Veon Bell was released this week. Murray and Freeman are underwhelming deep-league flex options.
Darnell Mooney’s hefty target share helped him to three top-30 fantasy weeks in the four games prior to Chicago’s bye. Allen Robinson II is still without any top-30 fantasy weeks this season, but he did post a season-high 11 fantasy points in his last outing. With Fields adding some life to the Chicago offense, Mooney and Robinson are both back on the WR3/flex radar. Rashod Bateman posted a career-high 14 fantasy points despite the return of Sammy Watkins last week, so the impressive rookie receiver makes for a fine WR3/flex.
When we last saw him in Week 9, Cole Kmet was targeted a season-high eight times and put up a career-high 87 yards. The second-year tight end is trending up, but remains out of the TE1 conversation for now.

Over/Under: 45.4 (9th highest)
Win Prob: Ravens 65% (8th highest)

Lineup locks: D’Andre Swift, Nick Chubb

Baker Mayfield left Week 10’s action early with an injury, but he’s not a fantasy option even if he plays, having managed only one top-10 fantasy outing this season. It’s a similar sentiment for Jared Goff (also questionable), who hasn’t had any weekly finish better than 20th since Week 2. If Goff is out, Tim Boyle should also be avoided in what would be his first NFL start.
D’Ernest Johnson has done an admirable job when called upon to start this season, but he was limited to only 12 fantasy points with Chubb on the field during Weeks 8-9. Johnson is no more than a deep-league flex option, even though this is a good matchup. Swift is Detroit’s clear lead back, so Jamaal Williams shouldn’t be in lineups if he returns from injury this week.
Jarvis Landry hasn’t cleared 10 points in his four games since returning from injury, but he’s a “squeaky wheel” and perhaps could see a boost in targets this week. He’s on the WR3 radar as Mayfield’s top downfield option. Donovan Peoples-Jones crashed back to earth last week — a reminder of his low-target, boom/bust role. He’s also questionable this week and is best avoided. Top Detroit receivers Kalif Raymond and Amon-Ra St. Brown have combined for only two top-30 fantasy weeks this season.
T.J. Hockenson put up the dreaded goose egg in Week 10, but he had managed to produce three consecutive top-12 outings before that clunker. He remains a mid-range TE1.

Over/Under: 43.8 (13th highest)
Win Prob: Browns 72% (5th highest)

Lineup locks: A.J. Brown, Brandin Cooks

Ryan Tannehill has three top-12 fantasy outings during his last four games and is one of your top streaming options this week. Tyrod Taylor opened the season with a pair of 16-plus point fantasy efforts, but he struggled in his return from injury last week and can’t be trusted in lineups just yet.
The second week of the post-Derrick Henry Titans backfield saw D’Onta Foreman (11 carries, two targets on 21 snaps) take control of things, with Adrian Peterson (eight carries, one target on 19 snaps) and Jeremy McNichols (four carries, three targets on 15 snaps) also plenty involved. Foreman is the preferred flex option here, but all three are risky as Tennessee continues to sort out the touches. Houston has added Royce Freeman to its four-man RB rotation and all four make for poor fantasy options.
Geoff Swaim — yes, Geoff Swaim! — now has four catches in three straight games. He also scored a touchdown in two of those outings. He’s a name to consider starting in 2-TE leagues.

Over/Under: 46.6 (6th highest)
Win Prob: Titans 85% (2nd highest)

Lineup locks: Dalvin Cook, Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen

Aaron Rodgers has now posted consecutive fantasy finishes of 14th or worse, but this comes after a six-game streak of 19-plus point outings. He’s best-viewed as a fringe QB1 against a Minnesota defense that has been respectable against quarterbacks this season. Kirk Cousins has six top-12 fantasy finishes this season, but also three finishes of 19th or worse. He’s a name to try to avoid against a red-hot Packers’ pass defense.
Aaron Jones will miss a week or two, which positions AJ Dillon as Green Bay’s feature back. Dillon, who put up 128 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 23 touches last week, will only need to fend off Patrick Taylor and perhaps Ryquell Armstead for touches. A featured role locks him into the RB1 mix.
With the expected exception of Adams, none of Green Bay’s wide receivers saw more than four targets last week. They should all be avoided.
Make it four straight games with 9.5-plus fantasy points for Tyler Conklin. With an average of 11.6 fantasy points during this span, he’s a fringe TE1 play this week.

Over/Under: 46.1 (7th highest)
Win Prob: Vikings 52% (15th highest)

Lineup lock: Mike Gesicki

Tua Tagovailoa has reeled off four top-15 fantasy weeks in a row (despite not starting last week) and is a fine streamer this week against the struggling Jets. Joe Flacco will start ahead of the ineffective Mike White and the injured Zach Wilson, but shouldn’t be close to lineups.
The Jets’ run defense has been unbelievably poor and has allowed a whopping 13 running backs to reach 15 fantasy points this season. Myles Gaskin’s production has been all over the map, but he’s a strong candidate for his fourth top-15 fantasy outing in seven weeks. Michael Carter is fresh off his third top-15 fantasy outing in his last four games and makes for a fine RB2.
Jaylen Waddle is averaging 9.4 targets per game over his last five outings and will be in the WR2 discussion for as long as both DeVante Parker and William Fuller V remain out. Corey Davis has four top-30 fantasy outings in seven games this season and is a viable WR3 against Miami’s struggling pass defense. Elijah Moore has reeled off three straight finishes of 26th or better and has seen six-plus targets in 6 of 8 games this season. He’s risky with the QB change, but nonetheless the preferred flex option over teammate Jamison Crowder.

DFS Alert: Tagovailoa ($5,500) checks in as a terrific value at DraftKings this week. The second-year quarterback is priced 15th out of the 24 projected starters on the slate, despite sitting sixth in fantasy points during his four full games this season. Tagovailoa has thrown seven touchdowns and has added three on the ground in 4.5 games. Despite the missed action, he has as many top-15 fantasy finishes this season (4) as Tannehill, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow. The key this week is the matchup, as the Jets have allowed the second-most passing yards this season. New York has allowed seven quarterbacks to reach 19-plus fantasy points in nine games.

Over/Under: 44.4 (12th highest)
Win Prob: Dolphins 62% (10th highest)

Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Alvin Kamara

Trevor Siemian has thrown two touchdowns in consecutive games, but he adds nothing with his legs and Taysom Hill continues to be mixed in. He’s not a viable QB1.
Boston Scott and Jordan Howard each delivered a pair of top-25 fantasy weeks while Miles Sanders was out, but with the team’s lead back potentially ready to return this week, things are a bit foggy. The suddenly run-heavy Eagles have four options in the backfield (including rookie Kenneth Gainwell) and it’s yet to be seen how the touches will be distributed. Sanders will be the safest flex if he’s back, but he’s not the most enticing play against a Saints defense allowing the third-fewest RB fantasy points and easily the lowest RB yards per carry (2.8) this season. If Sanders remains out, Scott will be the slightly-preferred flex over Howard.
DeVonta Smith has delivered exactly 22.6 fantasy points in consecutive games. He’s shown some inconsistency this season but his recent surge, coupled with a healthy target share, keeps the rookie in the WR3 mix. Marquez Callaway has four top-35 fantasy weeks this season, but he and his fellow Saints receivers have a very tough matchup against the Eagles’ terrific pass defense.
Dallas Goedert (concussion) is questionable this week, but he’ll be a TE1 option if active. If not, this a situation to avoid, as New Orleans hasn’t allowed a single tight end to reach double-digit fantasy points this season.

Over/Under: 46 (8th highest)
Win Prob: Saints 55% (13th highest)

Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, DJ Moore, Terry McLaurin

Cam Newton is back and, after scoring two touchdowns off the bench last week, he’ll make his first start of 2021 in Week 11. When we last saw Newton in a full-time role (with New England in 2020), he posted a 137-592-12 rushing line and was fantasy scoring’s QB15. There’s risk here as he gets up to speed with Matt Rhule’s offense, but Newton’s legs push him into the QB2 mix right out of the gate. Meanwhile, Taylor Heinicke has delivered five top-12 fantasy weeks this season, but Carolina’s solid passing defense makes him a poor streaming option.
Antonio Gibson came out of the bye week on fire, with 78 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 26 touches against a very good Buccaneers’ run defense. Gibson is still lacking much passing-game involvement, but his rushing volume keeps him in the RB2 mix. J.D. McKissic remains game-script dependent, but his 11.0 fantasy PPG keep him in the flex discussion.
Newton found Robby Anderson for a touchdown last week. That’s a nice sign of life and perhaps Anderson will leap back to the WR3 mix, but we need to be cautious considering that Week 10 marked his first weekly finish better than 40th this season.
Ricky Seals-Jones (hip) will be a borderline starting TE option if he’s able to play this week with Logan Thomas still out. If Seals-Jones sits, this is a situation to avoid.

DFS Alert: McCaffrey checks in at $8,900 at DraftKings this week, which isn’t cheap, but is also too low for a player of his caliber. In four full games this season, McCaffrey is fantasy’s clear RB1. He’s now scored at least 23 fantasy points in 19 of his last 22 games, averaging 27.8 PPG during this span. He only played on 59% of Carolina’s snaps last week (his second game back from injury), but still racked up 13 carries and 10 targets. McCaffrey has a decent matchup this week, as Washington has allowed the third-fewest yards and fourth-most touchdowns (12) to running backs this season. Cordarrelle Patterson, Darrel Williams, Melvin Gordon III, Leonard Fournette, Moss and Kamara all reached 17 fantasy points against Washington.

Over/Under: 39.6 (15th highest)
Win Prob: Panthers 66% (7th highest)

Lineup locks: James Robinson, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle

Jimmy Garoppolo has reeled off three top-12 fantasy weeks in a row, but he’s yet to clear two touchdowns in any game and, aside of a random trio of touchdowns earlier this season, remains all but a non-factor with his legs. He’s best left on benches. The same goes for Trevor Lawrence, who hasn’t posted a weekly finish better than 20th since returning from his Week 7 bye.
Elijah Mitchell (finger) will be on the RB2 radar if he’s able to play this week, although Jacksonville’s run defense has been better you may realize with just 3.7 YPC and 4.8 YPT allowed to running backs. If Mitchell is out, Jeff Wilson Jr. will leap into the flex discussion with JaMycal Hasty also sidelined.
Brandon Aiyuk has cleared a 20% target share in three straight games and is back in the weekly WR3 discussion. Marvin Jones Jr. is your top flex option among Jacksonville’s wide receivers, but he hasn’t had any top-50 fantasy outings since Week 6, so this is a situation to avoid if you can.

DFS Alert: Dan Arnold ($4,100) easily leads the Jaguars with 25 targets over the last three weeks and, for the second consecutive week, is the TE value play at DraftKings. Only Travis Kelce has more targets than Arnold during the last five weeks — a run that has translated to 10-plus fantasy points for Arnold in four of those five games. Arnold sits fifth in fantasy points during this stretch, despite failing to score any touchdowns. The 49ers haven’t allowed much to tight ends this season, but the schedule has been very light. The best one they faced was easily Hockenson, and he posted an 8-97-1 line against San Francisco.

Over/Under: 42.7 (14th highest)
Win Prob: 49ers 62% (9th highest)

Lineup locks: Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase, Darren Waller

Burrow posted four top-12 fantasy weeks during his last six games prior to the Bengals’ Week 10 bye. Cincinnati’s highly-productive passing game keeps the second-year passer in the QB1 mix. Derek Carr has five top-10 fantasy outings this season, but also three finishes of 20th or worse over his last six games. He’s a fringe QB1.
Josh Jacobs posted a rare dud last week and he’s now finished no lower than 21st at the RB position in 5 of 7 games this season. He’s a solid RB2 against a Bengals defense allowing the fifth-most RB fantasy points. Kenyan Drake is on the flex radar, as he plays a role in the passing game and the Bengals have allowed both the most targets and receptions to running backs this season.
The Raiders have been very good at slowing wide receivers this season to the tune of the sixth-fewest WR fantasy points allowed. That said, Tee Higgins’ heavy volume has allowed him to post three top-25 fantasy weeks in a row. He’s still a WR2 option. Hunter Renfrow has reached double-digit fantasy points in all but one game this season and has had two of his best three games over the last two weeks. The slot man is a fine WR3. Tyler Boyd’s last five games have netted only one top-40 fantasy week. He makes for an underwhelming flex option in a tough matchup against Nate Hobbs. Bryan Edwards exploded for 88 yards and a score last week, but he’s yet to clear six targets in any game of his career and has seen exactly four looks in four straight games.
C.J. Uzomah is a TD-dependent option on the TE1 borderline, but he does have a good matchup against a Raiders defense allowing the second-most fantasy points, receptions and yards to tight ends.

Over/Under: 48.9 (3rd highest)
Win Prob: Bengals 53% (14th highest)

Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, Travis Kelce

Clyde Edwards-Helaire is expected back from injury this week after missing five games. Williams has shown well in his place and it’s possible he’ll maintain a significant role, but Edwards-Helaire was the clear No. 1 back before his injury and had put up 17-plus fantasy points in consecutive games before getting hurt. Both should be viewed as flex options for now. Williams would leap back into fringe RB1 territory if Edwards-Helaire remains out.
For Dallas, Tony Pollard has only two weekly finishes better than 25th this season and isn’t a strong flex play. Michael Gallup was targeted on five of his 40 snaps in his return from injury last week and has quickly rejoined the flex conversation. Dalton Schultz matched a season-low with just two targets last week, but he had at least five in each of his previous six games. He remains on the TE1 radar.

DFS Alert: Hill ($8,200) is one of the pricier options on DraftKings this week, but he’s well worth the cost. The explosive receiver is currently second in WR fantasy points and has five top-10 outings under his belt. He’s averaging a career-high 28% target share and has seen nine-plus targets in seven straight games. The matchup against Dallas is super intriguing as the Cowboys have been in Man-1 on an NFL-high 50.3% of coverage snaps this season. Hill has five 30-plus yard catches this season and four were against man coverage, with three coming against Man-1. Additionally, seven of his eight touchdowns have come against man coverage. Dallas is allowing 14.7 yards per WR reception (second highest) and seven receivers have reached 19 fantasy points against them.

Over/Under: 52.8 (Highest)
Win Prob: Cowboys 57% (12th highest)

Lineup locks: James Conner, DK Metcalf

Kyler Murray has missed Arizona’s last two games due to injury, but he’ll be right back in the QB1 mix if he’s active this week. If he’s out, replacement options Colt McCoy and Chris Streveler should both be avoided.
Chris Carson will be a RB2 play if he returns from a neck injury this week. If he remains out, Travis Homer (30 snaps last week) and Alex Collins (29) will share duties. Neither makes for a strong fantasy option, although Collins would be the preferred flex choice.
DeAndre Hopkins has missed Arizona’s last two games, but he’ll be a lineup lock if he’s active. Christian Kirk is up to WR20 in fantasy points. His value depends on the status of both Murray and Hopkins, but he’s safest valued as a WR3. A.J. Green would get a boost to flex territory if Hopkins is out, but note that the veteran receiver has reached 10 fantasy points only once in his last five games. It’s a similar story for Rondale Moore, who hasn’t reached double-digit fantasy points since Week 5 and should only be considered for a flex spot if Hopkins remains out.
Zach Ertz is averaging 5.0 targets per game since joining Arizona but hasn’t hit 10 fantasy points since his team debut in Week 7. He’s not an automatic play by any means. Gerald Everett (questionable) saw eight targets last week, which was nearly half of his season total (18) entering the week. He’s a name to monitor, but not yet a viable TE1.

Over/Under: 47.3 (5th highest)
Win Prob: Cardinals 67% (6th highest)

Lineup locks: Najee Harris, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Diontae Johnson

Herbert is fantasy’s No. 7-scoring quarterback, but that’s largely thanks to his three top-two fantasy outings. Strangely, he no other weekly finishes better than 12th this season. The good news is that his struggles have come against man coverage, but he’s done most of his damage against zone and specifically Cover 3. The Steelers operate a zone-heavy defense and lean primarily on — you guessed it — Cover 3. Herbert is a QB1. Meanwhile, Ben Roethlisberger (COVID-19) could be back this week, but Mason Rudolph was fantasy’s QB13 last week in his place — and that was the best finish by any Steelers quarterback this season. Neither should be in lineups.
Mike Williams’ last top-40 fantasy outing was way back in Week 5. He averaged 10.2 targets per game during his first five games, but hasn’t cleared six targets in any of his last four games. Williams has fallen to WR3 territory. Chase Claypool (toe) missed Week 10 and hasn’t managed any top-35 fantasy outings since Week 5. Still, he sees enough volume in a passing-friendly offense to keep him in the WR3 mix.
Pat Freiermuth saw a career-high nine targets last week and has three top-10 fantasy outings in his last four games. He’s a TE1 for now. Jared Cook has been under five targets in four of his last five games and has fallen out of the starting TE mix.

Over/Under: 45.4 (10th highest)
Win Prob: Chargers 57% (11th highest)

Lineup locks: Tom Brady, Leonard Fournette, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans

Daniel Jones returns from his bye week having gone five straight games without a top-12 fantasy outing. He belongs on benches against Tampa Bay.
Saquon Barkley is back from an ankle injury and immediately leaps into must-start territory. Barkley had posted back-to-back top-10 fantasy weeks before the injury, but is best-viewed as a RB2 this week against the Buccaneers’ strong run defense.
New York will have Kenny Golladay, Darius Slayton and Kadarius Toney at wide receiver this week, whereas Sterling Shepard (quad) is questionable. Shepard has been a top-20 fantasy wide receiver in all three of his full games this season, so if he’s active, then he and Golladay are the best WR3/flex plays from the group. If Shepard remains out, Golladay, Toney and Slayton all get a boost.
Evan Engram rattled off a pair of top-10 fantasy weeks prior to the bye (his best finishes of the season). He’s a borderline starter in Week 11. Rob Gronkowski is expected back this week and immediately rejoins the TE1 mix after opening the season with a pair of 2-TD games.

Over/Under: 49.4 (2nd highest)
Win Prob: Buccaneers 85% (Highest)

Lineup locks: None

Mac Jones is on the rise and has a pair of top-eight fantasy showings over the past month, but note that he has no other finishes better than 17th this season. It’s a good matchup as Atlanta has allowed the third-most QB fantasy points and touchdowns, but Jones hasn’t done enough to warrant serious QB1 consideration. The same goes for Matt Ryan, who has two top-10 fantasy weeks this season, but also two finishes outside of the top 30 over the past three weeks. He should be benched against a New England defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy QB points (and more than 17 fantasy points to the position only twice).
Damien Harris (concussion) was out last week, but he had 14-plus carries and 10-plus fantasy points in five straight games before getting hurt. He lacks upside, with one weekly finish better than 15th, because of a minimal passing-game role and it’s possible he’ll lose work to impressive rookie Rhamondre Stevenson. Stevenson filled in for Harris with a 20-100-2 rushing line last week. Stevenson has 13-plus fantasy points in three of his past four games and will be a solid RB2 if Harris is out — and still on the flex radar if Harris plays. The two backs are set up with a terrific matchup against a Falcons defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to running backs.
Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle) is questionable, which is the only reason fantasy’s RB9 is not listed as a lineup lock. If he’s out, Mike Davis (four carries, one target on 20 snaps last week) and Wayne Gallman (15 carries, two targets on 22 snaps last week) figure to split backfield duties. Though he did get some early run, most of Gallman’s Week 10 carries came in the second half of a blowout loss, so Davis (10-plus fantasy points in 6 of 9 games this season) would be the better RB2/flex play.
Jakobi Meyers finally caught his first NFL touchdown last week, but the reliable slot receiver has a total of just seven targets over his past two games and only three weekly finishes better than 35th this season. He’s a WR3/flex. Kendrick Bourne scored a career-high 24 fantasy points and reached 100 scrimmage yards for the first time in his career last week, but the journeyman has seen four or fewer targets in 7 of 10 games this season. He’s a bit of a boom/bust deep-league flex. Atlanta’s wide receivers can’t be trusted, as their No. 1 option, Russell Gage, has posted a pair of zero-point efforts over the past three weeks. That’s especially the case against a Patriots’ passing defense that has allowed an NFL-low 109 WR receptions this season.
Kyle Pitts’ last top-10 fantasy outing was in Week 7 and he has been held under 10 fantasy points in 6 of 9 games this season. He’s also facing a tough matchup against a Patriots defense that has allowed the fewest receptions and yards, and the second-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Pitts’ huge target share keeps him in the TE1 mix, but a dud is very possible. Hunter Henry has scored seven touchdowns in his past seven games, but he’s also seen a maximum of four targets in his past five games. You’re betting on a touchdown if you put him in your lineup.

Over/Under: 44.8 (10th highest)
Win Prob: Patriots 79% (3rd highest)

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NFL rookie rankings 2021 – Our top 10 first-years, Ja’Marr Chase’s record-setting start, rising corners, more

October 27, 2021 Admin Leave a comment

We’re seven weeks into the 2021 NFL season, and the first-year cornerbacks continue to flex their collective muscles. Three of them make the second edition of our rookie rankings. And while our top 10 has some movement, once again only one quarterback made the cut. It’s actually a pass-catcher atop the board here, as the Bengals’ Ja’Marr Chase has launched himself to the head of the class as the season’s halfway point approaches. That shouldn’t surprise anyone — he’s setting records for rookie receivers and seems to have a deep-ball TD every week.

To build the list, we polled some personnel executives around the league and worked our way through the game tape. We also include who just missed the list and a few other names to keep handy in the coming weeks. Finally, we looked to ESPN Stats & Information’s Seth Walder to name an under-the-radar rookie to keep an eye on and ESPN Chalk’s Doug Kezirian to provide the best value bets for Rookie of the Year.

So who are the top rookies in the NFL right now, and why are they excelling? Let’s cut to the Chase, pun intended.

Jump to:
Top 10 | Just missed | Notes
Under the radar | Value bets

Stats: 35 receptions, 754 yards, 6 TDs
Drafted: No. 5 overall

Where to start? The 21-year-old leads the league in yards per catch (21.5), has three 100-yard games — including a 200-yard outing — and has the most receiving yards through seven career games in NFL history (754). Watch his routes and how he sets up more experienced defenders — add the Ravens’ Marlon Humphrey to what will be a growing list — and it’s clear this is a dynamic player who is going to require defenses to make a plan for him every weekend. And that means going beyond just putting their best cover player on him most of the time.

Stats: 6 starts, 88.3% pass block win rate
Drafted: No. 13 overall

Lists like these are often about degree of difficulty, and Slater checks that box pretty rigorously. He has already faced the likes of Chase Young, Maxx Crosby and Myles Garrett in his first six starts. Garrett did overpower Slater for a sack in Week 5 — though he may have gotten away with a hands-to-the-face penalty on the play — but body of work is always what matters most, and Slater’s body of work thus far is top shelf.

Stats: 31 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 2 passes defended
Drafted: No. 12 overall

His versatility and the Cowboys’ need to change his job description at the earliest stages of his NFL career will impact how some may see Parsons’ success. The bottom line: He has made an impact at defensive end when the team needed him to play there — he has 10 quarterback hits — and he has shown the ability to work in coverage at linebacker, as well as hold his gap at the point of attack in the run game. Parsons leads all rookies in pass rush win rate at 26.2%.

Stats: 24 tackles, 1 interception, 6 passes defended
Drafted: No. 9 overall

Surtain has played 86% of the team’s defensive snaps, been tasked with a handful of WR1s and played with such competitiveness from down to down that when Ronald Darby came off injured reserve, it was veteran Kyle Fuller who went to the bench. Surtain does need to clean up some of his tackling in the run game, but opposing quarterbacks have consistently been frustrated far more often than not when they’ve tried to test him.

Stats: 28 tackles, 1 forced fumble
Drafted: No. 52 overall

Owusu-Koramoah may have difficulty holding on to this spot, given he went to injured reserve (ankle) on Oct. 18, missed the Browns’ Week 7 win over the Broncos and is expected to miss several weeks. But just before his injury, which happened on Oct. 17 against the Cardinals, he had played 91% and 85% of the defensive snaps in his prior two games, as he consistently showed top-end play speed to the point of attack with quality work in coverage.

Stats: 1,779 yards passing, 9 TDs, 6 INTs, 70.4% completion rate
Drafted: No. 15 overall

Jones has faced the highest degree of difficulty among the top 10 and showed the resolve to bounce back from his three-interception day in Week 3 against the Saints for seven touchdown passes and three interceptions over the next four games. He also got his first career 300-yard game in a blowout win over the Jets this past weekend. The game tape shows a little more progress each week in protecting himself in the pocket — especially against the unnecessary sack — and taking care of the ball.

Stats: 20 tackles, 2 interceptions, 5 passes defended
Drafted: No. 47 overall

Like one of his mentors — Broncos coach Vic Fangio — Chargers coach Brandon Staley wants competitive cornerbacks who can tackle and play with discipline in a variety of coverages. Samuel has been reliable much of the time and has shown the versatility to play in the slot or outside, depending on what is needed of him.

Stats: 7 starts, 96.7% pass block win rate
Drafted: No. 63 overall

The Chiefs have a growing pile of trouble in some places on the depth chart, but Humphrey is not on that list. He has played with composure and keeps his footwork clean. The game film shows he has allowed just one sack in pass protection, and ESPN’s metrics (via NFL Next Gen Stats) have him with just six pass-block losses on the season overall.

Stats: 31 receptions, 471 yards, 1 TD
Drafted: No. 4 overall

Personnel evaluators around the league expected Pitts to find his footing as the season moved toward the halfway mark. Consider it found. He has two 100-yard games over the past two weeks and a wide receiver-worthy 15.2 yards per catch on the season.

Stats: 32 tackles
Drafted: No. 167 overall

The former Illini defensive back finds his way into this spot because of the Raiders’ expanding portfolio for him in recent weeks and his ability to consistently have an impact in each of those roles. Hobbs has five starts, has played at least 50% of the defensive snaps in every game — including a season-high 93% in the Raiders’ Week 7 win over the Eagles — and has just one missed tackle on the year.

Just missed

Azeez Ojulari, LB, New York Giants

The second-round pick’s 5.5 sacks lead all rookies, including the 2.5 he had against the Panthers this past Sunday. He has added some counters in his pass-rush work, and the more he progresses there, the more sack-happy games he will have. His 14.0% pass rush win rate is second among rookies to Dallas’ Parsons.

Penei Sewell, OT, Detroit Lions

His potential is still clear, but the move to left tackle to replace the injured Taylor Decker has impacted Sewell’s quality of play overall, as he fights his way along the learning curve. After a choppy two-game stretch against Minnesota and Chicago, when he allowed four sacks, he rebounded with high-quality efforts against the Bengals and Rams.

Greg Newsome II, CB, Cleveland Browns

Newsome missed two games with a calf injury — Weeks 4 and 5 — and played just 21 of the team’s defensive snaps in Week 6. But he got the start and played all 50 defensive snaps against the Broncos this past Thursday. His play shows an attention to detail, and he has been flagged just once this season.

Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos

Williams, who has 320 rushing yards this season, is a broken-tackle festival waiting to happen. We saw it recently against the Ravens, when six different Baltimore players tried to tackle Williams before he eventually was pulled to the ground. He has shown potential in the passing game, as well, with 122 yards on 20 catches. The only quibble is on those rare occasions when he doesn’t show his customary decisiveness.

Eric Stokes, CB, Green Bay Packers

Stokes has played every defensive snap in four of the Packers’ past five games. He has been flagged three times this season — all for pass interference — but all three were in his first two starts. Stokes has an interception and eight passes defended.

Keep an eye on: Osa Odighizuwa, DT, Dallas Cowboys; Rondale Moore, WR, Arizona Cardinals; Spencer Brown, OT, Buffalo Bills; Trey Smith, G, Kansas City Chiefs; Odafe Oweh, DE/LB, Baltimore Ravens; Kadarius Toney, WR, New York Giants; Sam Cosmi, OT, Washington Football Team; Pete Werner, LB, New Orleans Saints; Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers; Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars; Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers; DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles; Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, LB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers; Greg Rousseau, DE, Buffalo Bills

Other rookie notes

Let’s just plan on a Ja’Marr Chase note in each edition of these rankings, as he is already getting folks to page through the record books. His 200-yard game this past Sunday was just the 17th by a rookie receiver. And with his high target volume and big-play ability, it’s likely a good time to remind people of Jerry Butler’s rookie single-game record of 255 yards in 1979. While Chase put up his 200-yard effort in his seventh career game, Butler did it in his fourth career game. And oddly, Butler did not have another game with more than 140 receiving yards in his 88-game career.
Packers rookie center Josh Myers, a second-round pick, was on the fast track up the rankings. He had played every snap in Green Bay’s first four games and replaced former All Pro center Corey Linsley, who signed with the Chargers in free agency. But Myers missed a game with a finger injury and then suffered a knee injury in Week 6 against Chicago, sending him to injured reserve.
Buffalo Bills rookie tackle Spencer Brown, an Iowa native, had joked he watched the Chiefs-Bills AFC Championship Game in his basement last January and then 10 months later he made his second NFL start in Arrowhead in the Bills’ 38-20 win in Week 5. Keep an eye on Brown, a third-round pick this past April who played eight-man football in Lenox, Iowa, in high school. He has shown he’s ready for the job on a Super Bowl-hopeful team after he was moved into the lineup at right tackle when the Bills shuffled their starters and Daryl Williams was moved inside to guard.

Walder’s under-the-radar rookie

Trey Smith, G, Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs crushed the offensive line portion of their draft; not only did they get the aforementioned Humphrey late in the second round, but they also nabbed Smith in the sixth out of Tennessee. Seven games in, Smith ranks 11th in both pass block win rate and run block win rate among guards this season. That’s a lot of value for a late-round pick, and Smith — along with Humphrey and veteran free-agent signing Joe Thuney — makes the interior of the offensive line a real strength for Kansas City.

Kezirian’s Rookie of the Year value bet

Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons

Cincinnati’s Chase is rightfully receiving tons of attention and praise, but Pitts at +1400 feels like great value for Offensive Rookie of the Year. The main concern is that Chase and Pitts play similar positions, so their stats will be compared to one another, as opposed to how voters might compare a QB and receiver. However, we still have two full months remaining in the regular season, and it seems like Pitts is just now hitting his stride with back-to-back 100-yard games.

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The Playbook – Your ultimate fantasy football guide to Week 7

October 22, 2021 Admin Leave a comment

11:00 AM ET

Mike ClayESPN Writer
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- Fantasy football, NFL analyst for ESPN.com
- Member of Pro Football Writers of America
- Founding director of Pro Football Focus Fantasy
- 2013 FSTA award winner for most accurate preseason rankings

Welcome to the Week 7 Fantasy Football Playbook!

(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower due to other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to possible updates during the weekend, though at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)

Lineup locks: Aaron Jones, Davante Adams

Aaron Rodgers is fantasy’s QB12 this season, but he has put up 19-plus points in every game since his Week 1 dud and should definitely be in lineups thanks to a great matchup against a Washington defense that has allowed 23-plus QB points in five consecutive games. Taylor Heinicke laid an egg in a great Week 6 matchup and can’t be trusted in lineups after back-to-back duds.
Antonio Gibson had produced four top-25 fantasy weeks before his Week 6 injury woes and should be in lineups if active this week. If he’s out, J.D. McKissic vaults to RB2/lineup lock status and Jaret Patterson becomes a deep-league flex. AJ Dillon’s role is increasing, but he only has one weekly finish better than 30th to show for it. He should remain on benches.
Terry McLaurin has had three duds in his past four outings, but his usage (9.5 targets per game) and talent level are too good to bench. Allen Lazard scored his first touchdown of 2021 last week, but that helped him to only his first top-70 fantasy showing of the season. He’s a deep-league flex, at best. Randall Cobb can’t be trusted after failing to catch a single pass last week for the second time this season.
Ricky Seals-Jones has played on 99% of Washington’s snaps and has 15 targets in place of Logan Thomas over the past two weeks. He is a viable TE1. Robert Tonyan has cleared 3.0 fantasy points in just one game and is best left on benches.

Over/Under: 53.6 (2nd-highest in Week 7)
Win Prob: Packers 75% (4th-highest)

Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Derrick Henry, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce

Ryan Tannehill has just one top-15 fantasy week under his belt this season, in large part because the Titans offense has scored an abnormal percentage of its touchdowns on the ground. This is the highest-projected scoring game of the week, and the Chiefs have allowed the most QB fantasy points this season. Tannehill is a viable streaming option, with a positive reversion to the mean looming.
Darrel Williams stepped in and racked up 21 carries and four targets while playing on 56 snaps in place of Clyde Edwards-Helaire last week. That’s compared with only three carries and four targets on 22 snaps for Jerick McKinnon. Williams is on the RB1 radar this week, whereas McKinnon belongs on benches or waivers.
A.J. Brown delivered his first top-20 fantasy outing of the season in Week 6 and has seen seven-plus targets in all four of his full games this season. He’s a WR2. Julio Jones is questionable for Week 7 after leaving Monday’s game with yet another injury. Jones’ 6-128-0 showing in Week 2 showed that he still belongs in lineups when healthy, so we’ll need to monitor his health this week. Mecole Hardman has produced just one top-30 fantasy week this season and is no more than a flex.

DFS Alert: He’s not cheap, but Mahomes ($8,400) is the best QB value on DraftKings this week. Mahomes is averaging a terrific 25.6 fantasy points per game. He has scored 19-plus points in all six games and 23-plus in all but the Buffalo game. Mahomes has hit the 300-yard bonus three times and ranks top five at the position in both passing and rushing yards. He has had two-plus passing scores in every game and is on pace for a career-high 51. The Titans defense is allowing the fourth-most QB fantasy points and has already had some rough games against other top-tier talents (34 points to Kyler Murray, 29 to Josh Allen, 23 to Russell Wilson).

Over/Under: 61.5 (Highest)
Win Prob: Titans 51% (13th-highest)

Lineup lock: Calvin Ridley

Matt Ryan has reeled off a pair of top-12 fantasy outings and is a QB1 this week against a struggling Dolphins defense that has allowed the 10th-most QB fantasy points and third-most passing yards. Similarly, the Falcons have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points and sixth-most touchdowns (11) to quarterbacks, which sets up Tua Tagovailoa as a streaming option.
When we last saw him (back in Week 5), Cordarrelle Patterson had a career-high 14 carries and his highest target total (9) since 2014. He also played on a season-high 59% of Atlanta’s snaps. Patterson is an RB1 right now. Mike Davis is technically Atlanta’s lead back and has scored between 10.0 and 13.5 fantasy points in every game this season. He’s on the RB2 radar. Miami’s three-headed committee has resulted in only two individual top-25 fantasy weeks. Both were by Myles Gaskin, who ranks third in RB targets, which is enough to keep him on the RB2 radar.
DeVante Parker missed the past two games but was averaging 7.8 targets per game (7.9 is his career high for a season) before the injury. He will be a WR2/WR3 if back this week. The same goes for Jaylen Waddle, who has scored all three of his touchdowns with Tagovailoa under center and was targeted 12 times last week. Russell Gage is a deep-league flex in his first game back from injury.
Even after Atlanta’s bye, Kyle Pitts is a top-10 tight end in fantasy points, targets, receptions, yards and end zone targets. Mike Gesicki has three top-10 fantasy performances in his past four games and is averaging 8.0 targets per game over his past five outings. Both are TE1 options.

Over/Under: 46 (10th-highest)
Win Prob: Falcons 56% (9th-highest)

Lineup locks: None

Mac Jones has one top-20 fantasy week under his belt, and that was last week’s 17th-place finish. Fellow rookie Zach Wilson also has one top-20 fantasy showing, and that was a 19th-place spot in Week 1. Neither quarterback should be close to lineups in what projects to be a very low-scoring affair.
Michael Carter’s role continues to expand (12-plus opportunities in four straight games), and he has hit double-digit fantasy points in three of his past four games. He has yet to post his first top-20 fantasy week, but the rookie is on the RB2 fringe this week. Damien Harris has either 100 yards or a touchdown in four of his six games, but a minimal passing-game role has allowed him just two top-25 fantasy weeks (none better than 15th). Rhamondre Stevenson paced the Patriots backfield in routes (7) and targets (3) last week — which is progress, but not enough for flex consideration.
The Jakobi Meyers counter is up to 121 career catches without a touchdown, but he does check in at 11th in the league in targets and should be in lineups. Corey Davis has been as boom/bust as they come with two top-10 fantasy weeks and three finishes outside the top 50. The league’s drop leader (5) is seeing just enough work (7.2 targets per game) to keep him in the WR3/flex mix. Jamison Crowder has racked up 16 targets in two games and is a flex.
Hunter Henry is the Patriots’ undisputed No. 1 tight end right now and has scored in three consecutive games. Consider him to be a fringe TE1, whereas Jonnu Smith (4 targets,15 routes over the past two weeks) is waiver-wire material.

Over/Under: 38.1 (13th-highest)
Win Prob: Patriots 69% (7th-highest)

Lineup lock: DJ Moore

Both Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones were delivering QB1 numbers through the first month of the season, but a recent crash back to earth has left both outside the top-15 scorers in consecutive weeks. Even in plus matchups, both are no more than deep-league streaming options right now.
Jones is an especially risky start right now with so much of his supporting cast injured. That list includes Saquon Barkley, who will once again be replaced by Devontae Booker this week. Booker racked up 12 carries and four targets in the Week 6 blowout loss to the Rams, but his workload keeps him in the RB2 mix, even in a tough matchup. Chuba Hubbard has yet to deliver a top-15 fantasy week, but he handled 16 carries and three targets last week and has a terrific matchup. Consider him to be a fringe RB1 as long as Christian McCaffrey is out.
The Giants are expected to be without both Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney this week, which helps lock Sterling Shepard into a massive target share. Shepard has seen nine-plus targets and cleared 17 fantasy points in all three of his full games this season. He’s a terrific WR2. Robby Anderson has turned 29 targets into only a 10-87-1 receiving line over the past three weeks. The heavy usage keeps him on the WR3 radar, but the inefficiency is a major concern. Darius Slayton (if back from injury) and Dante Pettis are the probable secondary wideouts for New York this week and can be considered deep-league sleepers.

Over/Under: 43.5 (11th-highest)
Win Prob: Panthers 73% (5th-highest)

Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Joe Mixon, Mark Andrews

The Bengals are 4-2, but that hasn’t meant much fantasy success for Joe Burrow. The second-year quarterback has thrown 14 touchdowns (6th-most), but he is 24th in passing attempts and his best weekly fantasy finish is only ninth. Burrow has managed a high floor, with 17-plus points in five games. With six teams on their bye, he’s a streaming option this week.
In Week 6, Latavius Murray handled nine carries and two targets on 26 snaps, Devonta Freeman managed nine carries and a pair of targets on 21 snaps, and Le’Veon Bell racked up eight carries and zero targets on 21 snaps. This three-headed committee is best avoided, but Murray is your best flex option of the trio.
Ja’Marr Chase is the only wide receiver in the league with at least 13 fantasy points in six games this season. Fantasy’s No. 5-scoring wideout is now in the WR1 mix. Tee Higgins has been quiet since his return to health (76 yards, 13 targets), but he scored twice during Weeks 1-2 and remains a WR2/WR3 option. Tyler Boyd has posted a 15-136-0 receiving line in the four games when Higgins has been active and a 13-154-1 line in the two games he missed. He plummets to flex territory. Rashod Bateman surprisingly played on 67% of Baltimore’s snaps and tied for the team lead with six targets in his pro debut last week. He’ll be a better flex option if Sammy Watkins remains out.
C.J. Uzomah has scored three touchdowns in his past two games, but he has cleared three targets in a game only once. He has also scored at least 6.0 fantasy points just twice this season. He’s a TE2.

Over/Under: 51.2 (3rd-highest)
Win Prob: Ravens 52% (11th-highest)

Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Darren Waller

Derek Carr has reached 20 fantasy points in four games this season, which has been just enough to squeeze him into the QB top 10 in those weeks. He also has posted a pair of finishes outside the top 20 over the past three weeks. Ranked seventh in passing attempts and a nonfactor with his legs, Carr is a low-ceiling streaming option.
Josh Jacobs’ ceiling has been weak, but he has reached double-digit fantasy points in all four of his games and is averaging a solid 13.5 carries and 3.3 targets per game. He’s a fringe RB1 this week. Miles Sanders sits eighth in RB snaps but only 27th in touches and hasn’t scored a touchdown this season. His 69% snap share and a decent matchup puts him on the RB2 radar, especially with coach Nick Sirianni expected to use him more. Kenneth Gainwell has been under eight fantasy points in four of his past five games and belongs on benches. Kenyan Drake scored on two of his 11 snaps last week and has had nine touches during his past three games. He’s not playing enough for consistent fantasy value.
Hunter Renfrow had hit double-digit fantasy points in every game before Week 6 and is a low-floor WR3. Henry Ruggs III has seen a total of just seven targets over the past two games. That’s not enough, but he still has produced three top-35 fantasy weeks this season and remains in the WR3/flex mix. Jalen Reagor and Quez Watkins are risky starts, but their targets could rise with Zach Ertz gone.
Speaking of Ertz, Dallas Goedert will be back on the TE1 radar this week if he’s activated from the COVID-19 list. If he’s not, avoid Eagles tight ends Jack Stoll and Noah Togiai.

DFS Alert: Goedert checks in at $4,600 at DraftKings this week and is in for a larger role now that Ertz has been traded to Arizona. Goedert is averaging only 3.8 targets per game this season, but that certainly could double — especially considering he averaged 5.8 per game in 2019 and 5.9 per game in 2020. Goedert, who produced a pair of top-eight fantasy weeks with Ertz in the lineup earlier this season, was fantasy’s No. 3-scoring tight end during the four weeks Ertz was sidelined in 2020 (17-200-2 receiving line on 23 targets). The Raiders defense has allowed the sixth-most TE fantasy points this season and the most over the past month, having surrendered 19-plus points to Noah Fant, Jared Cook and Gesicki.

Over/Under: 48.5 (6th-highest)
Win Prob: Raiders 66% (8th-highest)

Lineup locks: Darrell Henderson Jr., D’Andre Swift, Cooper Kupp

Matthew Stafford has put up 16-plus fantasy points in every game this season, including a trio of top-10 QB finishes. He’s a terrific play this week against a struggling Lions defense. On the other side of the #RevengeGame narrative is Jared Goff, who has posted four consecutive fantasy finishes outside of the top 20. He shouldn’t be in lineups.
Robert Woods returned to earth last week after his Week 5 explosion, but he still found the end zone for the third time this season and hit double-digit fantasy points for the fifth time in six games. He’s a WR2. Amon-Ra St. Brown has seen 7-8 targets in three straight games and, although he has yet to score a touchdown, the usage is enough to put him in the WR3/flex mix this week. Kalif Raymond is also in the flex discussion after seeing six-plus targets in three of his past four games.
After three consecutive duds, T.J. Hockenson bounced back with an 8-74-0 receiving line on 11 targets last week. He has three top-10 fantasy outings under his belt and remains in the weekly TE1 mix. Tyler Higbee has scored two touchdowns this season, but he hasn’t cleared 40 yards in any game since Week 1. He’s a low-ceiling play but remains on the TE1 radar because the position is so shallow.

DFS Alert: Henderson ($6,600) is a top value play on DraftKings this week. The Rams’ lead back has missed snaps due to various injuries, but he still has managed to average 16.2 carries and 3.4 targets per game. That has led to at least 15.7 fantasy points in all five games when he’s been active. Only five running backs have more points in those weeks. The key this week is the matchup, as Detroit has allowed the most RB touchdowns and fantasy points over expected this season. The Lions have allowed 23-plus fantasy points to four different backs this season, and three others have reached 15 points.

Over/Under: 48 (7th-highest)
Win Prob: Rams 96% (2nd-highest)

Lineup locks: Kyler Murray, Brandin Cooks

Davis Mills blew up for 24 fantasy points in Week 5, but he otherwise has failed to produce a top-25 outing and belongs nowhere close to lineups.
James Conner has either tied or out-carried Chase Edmonds in all six games this season, and the game script figures to benefit him with Arizona coming in as a massive home favorite this week. Edmonds still holds a 30-6 edge in targets, however, so he gets the slight nod in the rankings. Still, both are very much in the RB2 mix. The Texans’ top three running backs (Mark Ingram II, David Johnson, Phillip Lindsay) rank 50th, 51st and 58th in fantasy points this season. None should be in lineups.
DeAndre Hopkins is still a lineup lock, especially in this week’s #RevengeGame against Houston, but it’s worth noting that he was limited to just three targets last week and his 6.0 per-game average this season is way down from his 9.9 per game in 2020. If that number doesn’t rise, Hopkins will continue to perform below the WR1 level we’re used to seeing. Arizona’s secondary receivers are tough to project, as the three have combined for six top-20 fantasy games but also six finishes of 65th or worse. Rondale Moore’s work in the run game gives him a tiny edge over A.J. Green and Christian Kirk.
Zach Ertz is risky in his Arizona debut, but Maxx Williams had posted two top-six fantasy weeks in his final three games before suffering his injury. Ertz certainly has a path to TE1 status.

DFS Alert: Cooks ($6,000) is the 14th-highest-priced wide receiver on DraftKings this week, checking in below the likes of Julio Jones and Woods. Cooks’ usage has been nothing short of massive, as he’s handling a career-high 9.5 targets per game — including three games with 11-plus looks. Cooks ranks seventh in WR targets and fifth in air yards while still managing an impressive 70% catch rate. Although he has scored only one touchdown, his heavy usage has resulted in 18-plus fantasy points in four of his six games — the exceptions coming against the Bills and Patriots. The Arizona defense has allowed a league-high 10 WR touchdowns, as well as the 12th-most WR fantasy points.

Eliminator Alert: If you’re still alive in your survivor league after a tough Week 6, life will be much easier this time around. There are several heavy favorites, and Arizona stands out as the best of the bunch. The Cardinals (-17.5) are a team you might want to use later this season, but the same goes for other top options such as the Packers, Rams and Buccaneers. Besides, this is Arizona’s highest-remaining projected win probability. Check out our Eliminator Cheat Sheet for the full weekly rundown.

Over/Under: 49.2 (4th-highest)
Win Prob: Cardinals 96% (Highest)

Lineup lock: Tom Brady

Justin Fields scored a career-high 13 fantasy points last week and, while there was some progress in the rushing department (43 yards), he hasn’t done enough as either a passer or a rusher to justify starting in fantasy.
Leonard Fournette has produced three consecutive top-15 fantasy weeks and is up to seventh in RB touches, fifth in targets and 10th in scrimmage yards. He’s in the RB1 mix this week. Damien Williams and Khalil Herbert split backfield duties in Week 5, and Herbert played on 89% of the snaps (19 carries, 3 targets) with Williams on the COVID-19 list last week. If Williams is back, both are best viewed as RB2/flex options. If Williams is out, Herbert will be an RB2 lock, even against Tampa Bay’s stellar run defense.
If we ignore the Week 3 game missed by Antonio Brown, the Buccaneers’ WR targets are very evenly distributed (Brown 42, Chris Godwin 39, Mike Evans 39). Brown is the No. 6-scoring fantasy wideout for those weeks, with Evans ranked 21st and Godwin 24th. Brown continues to run well behind Evans and Godwin in terms of snaps and routes — which is why they’re ranked higher for the time being — but all three wideouts should be in fantasy lineups.
Allen Robinson II still hasn’t produced a top-45 fantasy week this season, but his eight targets and season-high 204 air yards in Week 6 were a promising development. He should be busy this week with an anticipated pass-heavy game script and is thus on the WR3 radar. The same goes for Darnell Mooney and his 27% target share.
Rob Gronkowski hasn’t played since Week 3 but is still 11th in TE fantasy points and should be played if he’s active. If he’s out, O.J. Howard racked up seven targets on 18 routes, compared with only four targets on 26 routes for Cameron Brate in Week 6. Howard is trending up and would be the preferred play, but it’s close and it’s risky. Cole Kmet’s 4-49-0 receiving line on five targets was enough to launch him to “good TE2” territory due to the sorry overall state of the position.

Over/Under: 46.3 (8th-highest)
Win Prob: Buccaneers 84% (3rd-highest)

Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Deebo Samuel

Carson Wentz has played much better over the past three weeks, but he still has been limited to only one fantasy finish better than 14th this season, in part because he’s not adding much with his legs (74 yards,18 carries). Consider him a deep-league streaming option this week. The same goes for Jimmy Garoppolo, who hasn’t posted a top-12 fantasy week this season but could get an extra throw or two with Trey Lance questionable.
The Colts have allowed the fifth-fewest RB fantasy points, but when we last saw the 49ers, Elijah Mitchell played on 40 of 59 snaps and handled 11 of the 12 opportunities by 49ers tailbacks. Mitchell carried the ball 17 and 19 times during his other two games and, although his minimal receiving role limits his upside, the rookie is the clear lead back and a viable RB2 play. Nyheim Hines has been targeted a grand total of five times during his past three games and simply can’t be trusted as a flex right now.
Michael Pittman Jr. has reached seven targets in four games this season, but it’s concerning that he dropped to just three looks in T.Y. Hilton’s return last week. He’s still on the WR2 radar, but we’ll need to keep an eye on his usage. Hilton played on 50% of the snaps in his 2021 debut but turned his four targets into 80 yards. His role will only increase moving forward, especially with Parris Campbell now on IR. Hilton is on the WR3 radar if he’s able to play, but, if not, Zach Pascal leaps to the flex mix.
Mo Alie-Cox has scored three touchdowns over his past three games, but he also has cleared three targets in only one outing. He’s not a recommended starter, nor is Ross Dwelley, who played on 53 snaps in relief of George Kittle last week but was limited to a mere 25 yards on two targets.

Over/Under: 48.6 (5th-highest)
Win Prob: 49ers 54% (10th-highest)

Lineup locks: Alvin Kamara

The Saints’ low-volume offense has allowed Jameis Winston to produce a pair of top-five fantasy outings but also three finishes outside of the top 20. He’s a deep-league streaming option against Seattle. Last week, Geno Smith threw for 209 yards and a score — also taking five sacks and losing a yard on his only carry — in his first game subbing for Russell Wilson. He, of course, isn’t a recommended fantasy starter.
The Seattle backfield has more questions than answers right now with Chris Carson out, but Rashaad Penny is expected back this week. Penny was ahead of Alex Collins before his injury, but Collins has played well lately, including a 20-101-1 rushing line last week. Collins is also questionable this week due to injury, which adds another layer of confusion to the mix. At worst, Collins will be on the flex radar if he plays this week, but we could also see some combination of Penny, DeeJay Dallas and Travis Homer. Avoid them all where possible.
DK Metcalf (6-58-0) and Tyler Lockett (2-35-0) both disappointed in Smith’s first start, but it’s also extremely hard to consider benching them, especially with six teams on their bye. Michael Thomas isn’t ready to return, so Marquez Callaway (fresh off a 4-85-2 receiving performance on eight targets in Week 5) is back on the WR3/flex radar.
Gerald Everett found the end zone in Week 1, but he hasn’t cleared either five targets or 54 yards in any game. He’s a low-ceiling TE2.

Over/Under: 43.1 (12th-highest)
Win Prob: Saints 72% (6th-highest)

Teddy Bridgewater has delivered a high floor (four top-15 fantasy weeks), but also a low ceiling (no top-10s) and is a streaming option against a Browns defense allowing the most QB fantasy points over expected this season. Baker Mayfield is out this week and Case Keenum will replace him. Mayfield had not been a viable fantasy starter in his own right (one top-15 fantasy outing), so his replacement is well off the fantasy radar, especially against a Denver defense allowing the third-fewest QB fantasy points and fewest completions.
With Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt sidelined, D’Ernest Johnson is the next man up at running back for Cleveland. Expect Johnson to handle most of the carries, with John Kelly mixing in and Demetric Felton handling a healthy chunk of the passing-game work. Johnson is an RB2 option (even against a Denver defense allowing the fewest RB fantasy points over expected). Kelly and Felton are too risky to start.
Melvin Gordon III has 70 carries and 16 targets this season, whereas Javonte Williams has 65 carries and 15 targets. The committee backfield has allowed Gordon one top-20 fantasy week (Week 1) and has left Williams without a single top-24 outing. The Browns have allowed the second-fewest RB fantasy points to running backs, so consider both as flex options.
Courtland Sutton leads the NFL in air yards (871), sits second in expected touchdowns (3.7) and has been targeted at least eight times in four of his last five games. Especially with Jerry Jeudy still out, Sutton (who has three top-10 fantasy outings under his belt) is in the WR1 mix. His running mate, Tim Patrick, has yet to produce a top-20 fantasy week, but has proven to be a fine flex option with 12-plus points in five of six games.
Odell Beckham Jr. has yet to post a top-25 fantasy week, but his targets are actually up from last season (7.2, up from 6.7) and Denver has allowed the ninth-most WR yards. Beckham remains on the WR3 radar despite his lack of big games. If Jarvis Landry is activated from IR this week, he’ll also be on the WR3 radar. Landry had seven touches for 84 yards and a score in Week 1 — his only full game this season. Donovan Peoples-Jones has produced a 9-171-2 receiving line on 11 targets over the last two weeks, but can only be considered a flex option if Landry is out.
Noah Fant has delivered four top-10 fantasy weeks this season, with either a touchdown or 62 yards in each of those games. Cleveland has allowed the third-fewest TE fantasy points and a league-low 16 TE receptions, but the schedule has been extremely light. Fant has seen 10-plus targets in two of his last three games and is a solid TE1.

Over/Under: 46.2 (9th-highest)
Win Prob: Broncos 52% (12th-highest)

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Sports

Fantasy football streaming pickups for Week 6

October 13, 2021 Admin Leave a comment

Each week of the NFL season, we will identify fantasy football waiver-wire pickups specifically for those of you looking for streaming options in deeper formats (including IDP leagues). These are players available in a majority of ESPN Fantasy leagues (or close) who have enticing matchups in the week ahead that make them worthy of consideration for your lineups.

While you might notice some overlap with Field Yates’ pickup column that publishes on Mondays, an important distinction is that the options mentioned in this column are focused solely on this week’s matchup and not the players’ values for the remainder of the season.

Quarterback

Sam Darnold, Carolina Panthers (46.8% rostered; vs. Vikings)

Darnold was dreadful for the Panthers in last week’s loss against the Eagles. He held onto the football too long, didn’t read Philadelphia’s defense well, was erratic in the pocket, and flat-out missed open receivers. So Darnold has had one less-than-stellar game? There’s no need to panic.

From Week 1-4 he has averaged 27 fantasy points per game. Darnold is in a better position to bounce back at home against the Vikings this week and the return of running back Christian McCaffrey will help tremendously. Darnold can be viewed as a QB2 with upside this week against a Vikings defense (368.8) that’s allowed the 16th most yards per game.

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (42.6%; vs. Dolphins)

The Jaguars are winless and coach Urban Meyer is making headlines for the wrong reasons, but Lawrence has quietly improved with each game this season. Last week’s 273 passing yards was his most since Week 1 (332). Lawrence is also being used more as a runner. He has accumulated 21 rushing attempts over the past three games. The Jaguars’ defense (109.62) has allowed the seventh most fantasy points per game. Lawrence will continue to find himself in neutral-to-negative game scripts that only strengthen his fantasy viability. He’s on the streaming radar this week against a Dolphins defense that’s allowed the sixth most point per game to quarterbacks (22.03).

Taylor Heinicke, Washington Football Team (12.6%; vs. Chiefs)

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After his Week 5 breakout, 13% of Kyle Pitts trades were accepted (fourth-highest acceptance rate).

Elite production isn’t moving. Derrick Henry (94.2%) and Austin Ekeler (93.5%) led the way in trade rejection rate over the past week.

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Last week’s performance against the Saints paints a crystal-clear picture that Heinicke cannot be relied upon every week as a starter. He’s a matchup-based streamer and the last time I recommended him in this column, Heinicke threw for 290 yards and three touchdowns against the Falcons. Heinicke has another exploitable matchup against the Chiefs in Week 6.

No other team allows the most points to quarterbacks on a per-game basis than Kansas City (28). Heinicke’s rushing ability is also understated as he has stockpiled 22 rushing attempts in four starts and has averaged 5.17 yards per attempt. The Chiefs’ defense (141) has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game. Kansas City presents a perfect bounce-back opportunity.

Running Back

Darrel Williams, Kansas City Chiefs (7.6%; vs. Washington Football Team)

Unfortunately, Clyde Edwards-Helaire will miss a few weeks with an MCL sprain. “In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity,” was mentioned by Sun-Tzu and rings true to Williams’ situation. He led the Chiefs with 37 snaps and five rushing attempts against the Bills on Sunday Night Football, and is expected to be Kansas City’s lead back, while Jerick McKinnon is used as a receiver out of the backfield. Williams provided us with a glimpse of what he’s capable of last season in the playoffs when Edwards-Helaire was injured. In the Chiefs’ two playoff games, he stockpiled 1,155 total yards and a touchdown on 31 touches. He’s an excellent plug-and-play RB2 against a Washington defense (120.24) that’s surrendered the most points per game this season in fantasy.

Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears (4.7%; vs. Packers)

Herbert finished last week’s game against the Raiders with 18 rushing attempts compared to Damien Williams’ 16, and Herbert played more snaps. There should be enough touches for both in the Bears’ run-heavy offense with starting quarterback Justin Fields. For those unfamiliar with Herbert, he played his collegiate career at Kansas and Virginia Tech. In 46 college games, Herbert rushed for 2,918 yards and 22 touchdowns on 475 attempts and had 34 receptions for 297 yards and another score. From a film perspective, Herbert has solid balance, play speed, and identifies running lanes well. Herbert is a solid RB3 or flex option against the Packers in Week 6.

Wide Receiver

Quez Watkins, Philadelphia Eagles (2.2%; vs. Buccaneers)

Watkins’ number of snaps continues to trend up as the season progresses. He has caught 13 of 17 targets for 267 yards. On the other hand, Jalen Reagor has caught only 17 of 25 targets for 140 yards. Watkins lost out on a touchdown last week against the Panthers, as Jalen Hurts pass missed a wide-open Watkins on a free play. He could have a career day with his blazing speed against a Buccaneers defense allowing the second most points to wide receivers.

Rondale Moore, Arizona Cardinals (37.3%; vs. at Browns)

Moore was marvelous in the Cardinals’ Week 5 win over the 49ers. He displayed his catching ability, play speed, and tackle-breaking ability. Moore was deployed as not only a runner, but also as a receiver and it’s worth noting that this is the first time this season that Moore ran more routes than Christian Kirk in a game. He’s an excellent flex option or WR3 especially if you are looking for upside.

Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens (12.8%; vs. Chargers)

Bateman’s return is imminent and it’s coming at a perfect time for the Ravens offense. Quarterback Lamar Jackson continues to develop nicely as a passer. According to ESPN Stats & Info, he’s the first player in NFL history with 400 yards passing, four touchdowns, zero interceptions, and 50 rushing yards in a single game. The Ravens could use another receiving option. Tight end Mark Andrews and wide receiver Marquise Brown combined for 23 targets. Bateman offers them the versatility to play both on the outside and from the slot. He finished his 31-game collegiate career at Minnesota with 147 receptions, 2,395 receiving yards (sixth in school history) and 19 touchdowns (fifth). You should consider starting Bateman in his first regular-season game.

Tight End

Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins (45.7% rostered; at Jaguars)

Gesicki has amassed 25 targets over the Dolphins’ past three games. His targets per snap is on par with Darren Waller. Although Gesicki has played only 60.8% of Miami’s offensive snaps, that paints a picture of how often he has been involved in the Dolphins’ passing game. This usage trend is likely to continue against the Jaguars as Jacksonville’s defense has allowed the ninth most points per game to tight ends. Gesicki is a TE1 you shouldn’t overlook if your fantasy team needs a streamer.

Hunter Henry, New England Patriots (35.7% rostered; vs. Cowboys)

Henry has caught 10 of 13 targets for 107 yards and two touchdowns over the past two games and quarterback Mac Jones has a passer rating of 110.4 when targeting him this season. Henry is starting to heat up and should continue to be provided targets. The rapport between Henry and Jones should only strengthen as the season progresses. He’s a TE1 against the Dallas Cowboys’ defense that has allowed the 10th-most points per game to tight ends entering Week 6.

Mo Alie-Cox, Indianapolis Colts (0.3% rostered; vs. Texans)

Alie-Cox is operating as the Colts No. 1 tight end ahead of Jack Doyle. Over the past two games, he has caught 6 of 9 targets for 92 yards and two touchdowns. You can feel comfortable playing Alie-Cox against a Texans defense (20.8) that’s allowed the most points per game to his position.

Defense/special teams

Indianapolis Colts (43.7% rostered; vs. Texans)

You might be shocked to see the Colts as a recommendation after their defensive implosion on Monday Night Football against the Ravens. Indianapolis will be motivated to bounce back defensively against the Texans. Davis Mills threw for 312 yards and three touchdowns, but don’t allow that to blind you from two things. First, Mills is a rookie leading a Texans team with very few playmakers. Second, Houston has allowed 10 sacks, 6 takeaways, and averages a dismal 10 points per game. This is a great recipe for streaming success.

Green Bay Packers (20.1% rostered; at Bears)

The Bears are a disaster on offense right now. They rank last in total yards (240) per game and average only 16.8 points per game as an offensive unit that is also near the bottom of the league. On top of that, the Bears have limited the pass attempts of Justin Fields. He has had 24 pass attempts or fewer in four consecutive games. The Bears offensive line has given up 18 sacks. The Packers are in a good spot at home against Chicago’s suboptimal offense.

Cincinnati Bengals (17.1% rostered; at Lions)

The Bengals defense wasn’t strong enough to subdue Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams last week. However, Cincinnati should have more luck against Jared Goff and the Lions offense. Detroit has averaged 339.6 total yards and 19.6 points per game. The Lions rank near the bottom of the league in both statistical categories. If you’re in a bind at the D/ST position, look no further than the Bengals.

Kicker

Ryan Succop, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (32.2%, at Eagles)

Succop only had one field goal attempt, which he made, and was successful on all six extra point attempts in the Buccaneers win over the Dolphins last week. This is important because he has had some misses in each of the past three games. The Buccaneers offense is a juggernaut averaging an incredible 431.4 total yards. Succop appears to be back on track and should see plenty of opportunities against the Eagles.

Evan McPherson, Cincinnati Bengals (10%; at Lions)

McPherson is tied to a Bengals offense that has scored 24 or more points in each of their past three games. Cincinnati’s offense shouldn’t have trouble accumulating yards against the Lions defense. No other team allows more fantasy points per game to kickers than Detroit.

Zane Gonzalez, Carolina Panthers (0.3%; vs. Vikings)

Darnold and the Panthers look to bounce back at home against the Vikings. Gonzalez made all three of his field goal attempts and an extra point against the Eagles last week. He’s in a great position to replicate that performance against the Vikings, who are tied with the Texans for allowing the fourth most points to kickers.

Individual Defensive Players (IDP)

Defensive Line

Shaquil Barrett, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (39.7%; vs. Eagles)

Barrett has stockpiled 18 tackles, 3.5 sacks and an interception. He has stepped up in a major way for the Buccaneers defense. Barrett will have plenty of opportunities to display his pass rushing skills against an Eagles offense (36.6) averaging the 12th most pass attempts per game.

Linebacker

Isaiah Simmons, Arizona Cardinals (40.8%, at Browns)

Simmons has been the most consistent tackle producer on the Cardinals. He’s delivering on the hype after Arizona selected him eighth overall in the 2020 NFL draft. He should be busy against a Browns offense that leans heavily on Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.

Defensive Back

Taron Johnson, Buffalo Bills (19.6%, at Titans)

Johnson was able to get retribution against the Chiefs after getting embarrassed by them during the regular season and playoffs last year. He led the Bills with 12 tackles against Kansas City. Johnson has become one of the most important players on the Buffalo defense. He’s in a good spot against the Titans and on the streaming radar.

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RANK	PROJ	MATCHUP
QB2	24.9	Great
QB25	15.3	Poor
RB9	17.5	Poor
RB24	10.7	Poor
RB38	7.9	Poor
RB41	7.2	Poor
WR5	18.0	Great
WR24	14.1	Poor
WR35	11.1	Great
WR37	10.8	Great
WR52	9.2	Poor
WR59	8.3	Poor
TE12	9.2	Great
DST9	6.3	Shaky
DST26	3.3	Poor

RANK	PROJ	MATCHUP
QB1	24.9	Good
QB18	16.0	Good
RB17	15.1	Good
RB35	8.3	Shaky
RB42	7.0	Shaky
WR13	15.5	Great
WR34	11.4	Shaky
WR36	11.0	Great
WR41	10.5	Shaky
TE4	13.9	Poor
TE17	8.2	Good
DST4	7.4	Good
DST17	4.4	Average

RANK	PROJ	MATCHUP
QB22	15.8	Good
QB28	12.6	Great
RB6	18.2	Average
RB8	17.5	Great
RB29	9.6	Average
RB34	8.4	Great
WR32	12.0	Average
WR54	9.1	Average
WR57	8.6	Great
WR58	8.4	Great
TE9	10.5	Average
TE21	6.6	Average
TE23	6.1	Average
DST2	7.2	Good
DST25	4.2	Shaky

RANK	PROJ	MATCHUP
QB10	18.9	Good
QB24	15.6	Average
RB23	11.0	Average
RB28	9.6	Average
RB30	9.1	Average
RB37	8.0	Average
WR8	16.5	Average
WR14	15.6	Good
WR65	7.5	Average
WR66	7.5	Good
WR67	6.9	Good
TE20	7.0	Good
DST1	7.2	Great
DST22	4.2	Average

RANK	PROJ	MATCHUP
QB13	18.0	Shaky
QB17	16.4	Poor
RB5	18.3	Average
RB12	16.9	Good
WR2	21.3	Average
WR7	17.1	Poor
WR22	14.1	Poor
WR62	7.9	Average
WR69	6.5	Average
WR70	6.0	Poor
TE13	9.4	Good
DST13	4.7	Average
DST23	4.0	Poor

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Tag Archives: news – fantasy football

The Playbook – Your ultimate fantasy football guide to Week 11

The Playbook – Your ultimate fantasy football guide to Week 7

Fantasy football streaming pickups for Week 6

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receiver

Tight End

Defense/special teams

Kicker

Individual Defensive Players (IDP)

Defensive Line

Linebacker

Defensive Back

The Ultimate News Site

RANK	PROJ	MATCHUP
QB5	21.7	Shaky
QB16	17.4	Average
RB11	17.2	Great
RB14	15.9	Poor
WR4	17.8	Shaky
WR15	15.2	Shaky
WR30	12.1	Average
WR31	12.0	Average
WR49	9.4	Average
WR64	7.6	Shaky
TE7	10.9	Average
TE15	8.5	Average
DST7	6.5	Average
DST27	3.0	Poor

RANK	PROJ	MATCHUP
QB5	22.4	Shaky
QB11	18.6	Shaky
RB11	16.1	Average
RB17	13.6	Good
RB27	8.4	Good
RB34	7.0	Average
WR24	12.8	Shaky
WR26	12.5	Poor
WR34	10.9	Shaky
WR46	9.3	Shaky
WR47	8.8	Poor
WR50	8.5	Poor
TE2	15.0	Good
TE7	11.2	Good
DST12	5.0	Average
DST18	4.1	Average