Tag Archives: invasion

Putin gave no indication in Macron call he’s preparing invasion – French presidency official

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron in Moscow, Russia February 7, 2022. Sputnik/Kremlin via REUTERS/File Photo

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com

Register

PARIS, Feb 12 (Reuters) – Russian President Vladimir Putin gave no indication in a phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron on Saturday that he was preparing to invade Ukraine, a French presidency official said.

The two leaders spoke at a time of high tension over Russia’s massing of troops near the Ukrainian border, with Washington saying on Friday that Moscow could invade at any moment. Russia has denied it plans to invade.

“We see no indication in what President Putin says that he is going to go on the offensive,” the official told reporters after Macron and Putin spoke on the phone for nearly 90 minutes.

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com

Register

“We are nevertheless extremely vigilant and alert to the Russian (military) posture in order to avoid the worst.”

Separately, the Kremlin said that Putin had highlighted during the call with Macron a “lack of a substantive response from the United States and NATO to well-known Russian initiatives”. This referred to a series of Russian security demands, including that it bar Ukraine from ever joining NATO.

Putin and Macron also discussed the situation related to “provocative speculations” around an allegedly planned Russian invasion, the Kremlin said.

The Elysee official said France recommended that French nationals avoid trips to Ukraine and preparations would be made for embassy staff and their families to leave the country if they wanted.

The French ambassador would review the situation for the some 1,000 French nationals in the country, many of whom hold both French and Ukrainian citizenship, the official said. The United States and many other countries have urged citizens to leave Ukraine amid fears of an invasion.

Macron visited Moscow earlier this week and then and in their call on Saturday the two discussed ways to move forward on the implementation of the Minsk Agreements on achieving peace in eastern Ukraine, as well conditions for security and stability in Europe, the Elysee said separately in a statement.

Macron also spoke on Saturday with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz as well as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, and was due to speak with U.S. President Joe Biden.

In the call with Zelenskiy, Macron restated his support for the Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, the Elysee said.

Scholz is due to visit Kyiv on Monday followed by Moscow on Tuesday, and the Elysee said the French and German positions were “perfectly aligned”.

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com

Register

Reporting by Leigh Thomas
Additional reporting by Vladimir Soldatkin in Moscow, Pavel Polityuk in Kyiv and Andreas Rinke in Berlin
Editing by Richard Lough, Angus MacSwan and Frances Kerry

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Read original article here

U.S. orders employees to leave embassy in Kyiv ahead of potential Russian invasion of Ukraine

The U.S. State Department has ordered non-emergency employees to leave the U.S. embassy in Kyiv, Ukraine, ahead of a possible Russian invasion.

“Today, the [State Department] ordered non-emergency U.S. employees at the Embassy to depart due to continued reports of a Russian military build-up on the border with Ukraine, indicating potential for significant military action,” the embassy tweeted early Saturday morning. 

Diplomatic sources told CBS News that embassy evacuations started overnight. But not all of the staff will be leaving the country, Christina Ruffini reports for “CBS Saturday Morning.” Some will be going to Lviv — a city closer to the Polish border — to provide limited services for Americans who might need them. 

As of Sunday, consular services at the Kyiv embassy will be suspended. 

“U.S. citizens should not travel to Ukraine, and those in Ukraine should depart immediately using commercial or other privately available transportation options,” said a travel advisory for Ukraine issued on Saturday.

The U.S. embassy building in Kyiv, Ukraine.

Bloomberg via Getty


The White House is telling all Americans they have less than 24-48 hours to get out. 

“If you stay, you are assuming risk, with no guarantee that there will be any other opportunity to leave and there … no prospect of a U.S. military evacuation,” said national security adviser Jake Sullivan.

Sullivan repeated warnings Friday that the State Department has issued for weeks. But the message for Americans to leave Ukraine came with a new sense of urgency.

“We obviously cannot predict the future,” he said. “We don’t know exactly what is going to happen. But the risk is now high enough and the threat is now immediate enough that this is what prudence demands.”

The Pentagon press secretary also said Saturday that 160 members of the Florida National Guard who have been in Ukraine since November — advising and mentoring Ukrainian forces — will be moved “elsewhere in Europe,” “out of an abundance of caution.”  

U.S. officials say Russia now has 80% of the forces it will need to launch a full-scale invasion, and the rest are en route. More than 100,000 Russian troops are amassed along Ukraine’s borders — to the east, in Russia, and the north, in Belarus.

“We’re in a window when an invasion could begin at any time. And to be clear, that includes during the Olympics,” said Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

The U.S. is deploying additional forces to bolster the American military presence in Eastern Europe. The Pentagon announced on Friday it is sending 3,000 more troops into Poland. They will join the 3,000 others already there and in Romania, to reinforce allies should Putin decide to make a move.

The White House says the American military is not going into Ukraine to fight Russia, or even to help evacuations.

“That’s a world war, when Americans and Russians start shooting at one another,” President Biden said in an interview with NBC.

He said Russian President Vladimir Putin knows not to put American lives at risk.

“I’m hoping that if in fact he’s foolish enough to go in, he’s smart enough not to in fact do anything that would negatively impact on American citizens,” he said.

Sources told CBS News about 7,000 Americans have registered with the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv, but there could be as many as 30,000 in Ukraine. However, many of them have family members, business interests or homes in Ukraine they might not want to leave.

In a phone call Saturday, Secretary of State Blinken spoke with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov “to discuss acute and shared concerns that Russia may be considering launching further military aggression against Ukraine in the coming days,” State Department spokesperson Ned Price said in a statement. 

Blinken told Lavrov that pursuing a diplomatic path to resolve the crisis would require Russia “to deescalate and engage in good-faith discussions.”

According to Price, Blinken also reminded his Russian counterpart that invading Ukraine “would result in a resolute, massive, and united Transatlantic response.”

Mr. Biden and Putin spoke on the phone Saturday morning. No details about their discussion were immediately available. 



Read original article here

What a Russian invasion of Ukraine would mean for markets as White House warns attack could come ‘any day now’

Investors on Friday got a taste of the sort of market shock that could come if Russia invades Ukraine.

The spark came as Jake Sullivan, the White House national security adviser, warned Friday afternoon that Russia could attack Ukraine “any day now,” with Russia’s military prepared to begin an invasion if ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

U.S. stocks extended a selloff to end sharply lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
-1.43%
dropping more than 500 points and the S&P 500
SPX,
-1.90%
sinking 1.9%; oil futures
CL.1,
+0.86%
surged to a seven-year high that has crude within hailing distance of $100 a barrel; and a round of buying interest in traditional safe-haven assets pulled down Treasury yields while lifting gold, the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen.

Putin and U.S. President Joe Biden were slated to talk by phone Saturday in an effort to defuse tensions.

Analysts and investors have debated the lasting effects of an invasion on financial markets. Here’s what investors need to know.

Energy prices set to surge

Energy prices are expected to soar in the event of an invasion, likely sending the price of crude above the $100-a-barrel threshold for the first time since 2014.

“I think if a war breaks out between Russia and Ukraine, $100 a barrel will be almost assured,” Phil Flynn, market analyst at Price Futures Group, told MarketWatch. U.S. benchmark oil futures
CL00,
+0.86%

CLH22,
+0.86%
ended at a seven-year high of $93.10 on Friday, while Brent crude
BRN00,
+0.70%

BRNJ22,
+0.70%,
” the global benchmark closed at $94.44 a barrel.

“More than likely we will spike hard and then drop. The $100-a-barrel area is more likely because inventories are tightest they have been in years,” Flynn said, explaining that a monthly report Friday from the International Energy Agency warning that the crude market was set to tighten further makes any potential supply disruption “all that more ominous.”

Beyond crude, Russia’s role as a key supplier of natural gas to Western Europe could send prices in the region soaring. Overall, spiking energy prices in Europe and around the world would be the most likely way a Russian invasion would stoke volatility across financial markets, analysts said.

Fed vs. flight to quality

Treasurys are among the most popular havens for investors during bouts of geopolitical uncertainty, so it was no surprise to see yields slide across the curve Friday afternoon. Treasury yields, which move the opposite direction of prices, were vulnerable to a pullback after surging Thursday in the wake of a hotter-than-expected January inflation report that saw traders price in aggressive rate increases by the Federal Reserve beginning with a potential half-point hike in March.

Analysts and investors debated how fighting in Ukraine could affect the Federal Reserve’s plans for tightening monetary policy.

If Ukraine is attacked “it adds more credence to our view that the Fed will be more dovish than the market currently believes as the war would make the outlook even more uncertain,” said Jay Hatfield, chief investment officer at Infrastructure Capital Management, in emailed comments.

Others argued that a jump in energy prices would be likely to underline the Fed’s worries over inflation.

Stocks and geopolitics

Uncertainty and the resulting volatility could make for more rough sledding for stocks in the near term, but analysts noted that U.S. equities have tended to get over geopolitical shocks relatively quickly.

“You can’t minimize what today’s news could mean on that part of the world and the people impacted, but from an investment point of view we need to remember that major geopolitical events historically haven’t moved stocks much,” said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, in a note, pointing to the chart below:


LPL Financial

Indeed, the takeaway from past geopolitical crises may be that it’s best not to sell into a panic, wrote MarketWatch columnist Mark Hulbert in September.

He noted data compiled by Ned Davis Research examining the 28 worst political or economic crises over the six decades before the 9/11 attacks in 2001. In 19 cases, the Dow was higher six months after the crisis began. The average six-month gain following all 28 crises was 2.3%. In the aftermath of 9/11, which left markets closed for several days, the Dow fell 17.5% at its low but recovered to trade above its Sept. 10 level by Oct. 26, six weeks later.

Read original article here

US to evacuate Ukraine embassy amid Russian invasion fears

WASHINGTON (AP) — The United States is set to evacuate its embassy in Kyiv as Western intelligence officials warn that a Russian invasion of Ukraine is increasingly imminent.

U.S. officials say the State Department plans to announce early Saturday that most American staff at the Kyiv embassy will be required to leave the country ahead of a feared Russian invasion. The State Department would not comment.

The department had earlier ordered families of U.S. embassy staffers in Kyiv to leave. But it had left it to the discretion of nonessential personnel if they wanted to depart. The new move comes as Washington has ratcheted up its warnings about a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly, said a limited number of U.S. diplomats may be relocated to Ukraine’s far west, near the border with Poland, a NATO ally, so the U.S. could retain a diplomatic presence in the country.

The Pentagon announced Friday it is sending another 3,000 combat troops to Poland to join 1,700 who already are assembling there in a demonstration of American commitment to NATO allies worried at the prospect of Russia invading Ukraine.

The additional soldiers will depart their post at Fort Bragg, North Carolina, over the next couple days and should be in Poland by early next week, according to a defense official, who provided the information under ground rules set by the Pentagon. They are the remaining elements of an infantry brigade of the 82nd Airborne Division.

Their mission will be to train and provide deterrence but not to engage in combat in Ukraine.

That announcement came shortly after Jake Sullivan, President Joe Biden’s national security adviser, issued a public warning for all American citizens in Ukraine to leave the country as soon as possible. Sullivan said Russian President Vladimir Putin could give the order to launch an invasion of Ukraine any day now.

In addition to the U.S. troops deploying to Poland, about 1,000 U.S. soldiers based in Germany are shifting to Romania in a similar mission of reassurance to a NATO ally. Also, 300 soldiers of an 18th Airborne Corps headquarters unit have arrived in Germany, commanded by Lt. Gen. Michael E. Kurilla.

The American troops are to train with host-nation forces but not enter Ukraine for any purpose.

The U.S. already has about 80,000 troops throughout Europe at permanent stations and on rotational deployments.

___

Associated Press writers Robert Burns, Lolita C. Baldor and Aamer Medhani contributed to this report.

Read original article here

Officials review new intelligence about imminent Russian invasion

The intelligence about a “false flag” operation was discussed in a quickly convened meeting in the White House Situation Room on Thursday evening and helped prompt renewed calls from the Biden administration for all Americans to leave Ukraine immediately, according to officials familiar with the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence.

The precise timing and nature of the Russian operation was unclear. The United States had already accused Russia of planning to film a fake attack against Russian territory or Russian-speaking people in eastern Ukraine. The new intelligence is distinct from that alleged operation, the officials said.

Officials in multiple capitals concurred that the intelligence appeared to show that Russia is in the final stages of preparing to mount an invasion, which analysts have said could leave up to 50,000 civilians dead or wounded and lead to the fall of the government in Kyiv within a few days.

“Moscow is actively trying to create a casus belli,” or a justification for war, a Western official said.

On Friday, national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters that the continuing buildup of Russian forces and other information gleaned from intelligence reporting “makes it clear to us that there is a very distinct possibility that Russia will choose to act militarily. And there is reason to believe that could happen on a reasonably swift time frame.”

Sullivan alluded to the new intelligence. “We are firmly convinced that the Russians, should they decide to move forward with an invasion, are looking hard at the creation of a false-flag operation, something that they generate and try to blame on the Ukrainians as a trigger for military action. And we are calling that out publicly because we do believe that if Russia chooses to do that, they should be held to account.

Sullivan said that Russian President Vladimir Putin had not made a “final decision” on whether to order an invasion. Other officials concurred with that assessment but added that the new intelligence suggested an invasion was now more a question of when, not if.

U.S. and European intelligence analysts had previously said that Putin might wait until after the conclusion of the Olympics on Feb. 20 to launch an invasion, to not upstage his close ally, Chinese President Xi Jinping.

But that timeline appeared to be changing.

“What we can say is that there is a credible prospect that a Russian military action would take place even before the end of the Olympics,” Sullivan said.

When Biden administration officials last week accused Russia of trying to stage a pretext for war, they said people had been recruited to take part in a fabricated video, which would feature graphic footage of a staged, false explosion, using corpses to stand in for victims.

U.S. and British officials have mounted their own information offensive, declassifying and releasing information about Russian plotting, they say, to deter Putin from carrying out his plans. In addition to the earlier exposure of a possible false-flag operation, last month the British government announced that the Kremlin was scheming to install a pro-Moscow government in Kyiv.

The information “shines a light on the extent of Russian activity designed to subvert Ukraine, and is an insight into Kremlin thinking,” U.K. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said in a statement, calling on Russia to de-escalate and pursue a path of diplomacy.

The intelligence underlying the assertion, which also linked some former Ukrainian politicians to Russian intelligence officers involved in planning for an attack on Ukraine, was collected and declassified by the United States, according to multiple people familiar with the matter. The Biden administration asked the British government, which vetted the intelligence and was confident in its accuracy, to publicly expose the Russian plotting, the people said.

The Kremlin has also sought to create the grounds for an invasion through a propaganda campaign that falsely portrays Ukraine as preparing to launch an offensive against separatist-controlled areas of eastern Ukraine, U.S. and European officials have said.

As part of that effort, Russian authorities have promoted a years-old false narrative of the Ukrainian government seeking to carry out genocide against ethnic Russians in the region. According to the Western official, the Kremlin has tasked Russian state media to report on allegations of Ukrainian “war crimes” in eastern Ukraine even though, the official said, there is no evidence for such claims.

Russian media over the past few months publicized the launch of a website masquerading as a portal set up by human rights advocates in eastern Ukraine. In fact, the official said, it spread false allegations of genocide committed by the Ukrainian military.

The site was covertly created by the GRU, Russia’s military intelligence agency, the official said.

On Friday, the Tass news agency reported, without evidence, that the head of the self-proclaimed separatist territory of Donetsk had announced the discovery of 130 mass graves of “victims of Ukrainian aggression.”

Read original article here

Ukraine invasion could come any time as Russia masses more troops, says U.S.

  • New Russian deployments detected by satellite
  • Blinken says invasion could come before Olympics ends
  • Moscow says response to its demands shows ‘disrespect’

MOSCOW, Feb 11 (Reuters) – Russia is massing more troops near Ukraine and an invasion could come at any time, including during this month’s Winter Olympics, Washington said on Friday as Moscow further stiffened its response to Western diplomacy.

Commercial satellite images from a private U.S. company showed new Russian military deployments at several sites near Ukraine and, in his starkest warning yet to U.S. citizens, President Joe Biden said he would not send troops to rescue any who remained there in the event of a Russian assault.

“Things could go crazy quickly,” Biden told NBC News.

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com

Register

Biden held a phone call on the crisis with the leaders of Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Poland and Romania, as well as the heads of NATO and the EU.

Following that meeting and with alarm spreading, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson joined a handful of other nations in urging its citizens to leave Ukraine.

He told the meeting that he feared for the security of Europe and stressed the need for “a heavy package of economic sanctions ready to go, should Russia make the devastating and destructive decision to invade Ukraine,” his office said.

Moscow, meanwhile, said answers sent this week by the EU and NATO to its security demands showed “disrespect”.

Biden met his national security advisers overnight, a source familiar with the meeting said. U.S. officials believed the crisis could be reaching a critical point, with rhetoric from Moscow hardening, six Russian warships reaching the Black Sea, and more Russian military equipment arriving in Belarus, the source said.

“We’re in a window when an invasion could begin at any time, and to be clear, that includes during the Olympics,” said Secretary of State Antony Blinken. The Beijing Games end on Feb. 20.

“Simply put, we continue to see very troubling signs of Russian escalation, including new forces arriving at the Ukrainian border,” Blinken added.

Japan, Latvia, Norway and the Netherlands also told their citizens to leave Ukraine immediately, while Israel said it was evacuating relatives of embassy staff.

Russia has already massed more than 100,000 troops near Ukraine, and this week launched joint military exercises in neighbouring Belarus and naval drills in the Black Sea.

Russia’s Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov and his U.S. counterpart General Mark Milley discussed international security in a phone call on Friday, the Interfax news agency said.

Ukraine’s sea port authority said Russia had withdrawn previously-announced restrictions linked to the naval drills for ships in the Sea of Azov, which links to the Black Sea.

‘IMPOLITENESS AND DISRESPECT’

Moscow denies planning to invade Ukraine, but says it could take unspecified “military-technical” action unless a series of demands are met, including promises from NATO never to admit Ukraine and to withdraw forces from Eastern Europe.

The West has said those main demands are non-starters. The EU and NATO alliance delivered responses this week on behalf of their member states.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry said it wanted individual answers from each country, and called the collective response “a sign of diplomatic impoliteness and disrespect”.

Several Western countries launched diplomatic pushes this week to persuade Russia to back down, but Moscow brushed them off, yielding no concessions to French President Emmanuel Macron, who visited on Monday, and openly mocking British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss when she came on Thursday.

Four-way talks in Berlin between Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France on Thursday also yielded no progress.

Paris and Kyiv said the Russian delegation had demanded Ukraine negotiate directly with the separatists, a “red line” Ukraine has rejected.

CONFLICTING VIEWS

U.S.-based Maxar Technologies, which has been tracking the build-up of Russian forces, said images taken on Wednesday and Thursday showed large new deployments of troops, vehicles and warplanes in western Russia, Belarus and Crimea, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014. The images could not be independently verified by Reuters.

Russia says it has the right to move forces on its territory as it sees fit, and they pose no external threat.

Western countries have mostly stood together in threatening economic sanctions against Russia if it invades, but have given conflicting views on the threat’s immediacy.

Washington and London have said invasion could come within days. Macron, by contrast, said he thinks Russia does not have designs on Ukraine and called the existing Franco-German-led peace process for Ukraine’s separatist conflict a way out.

Moscow has responded dismissively to Western pressure. Pictures of Macron seated far from Putin at the opposite end of a huge table in the Kremlin went viral on the internet.

The Kremlin said on Friday the arrangement had been necessary because Macron had refused a COVID-19 test by Russian doctors. French officials said Macron’s travel schedule left no time to wait for test results; sources also said Macron’s office had been worried Moscow would sample his DNA.

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com

Register

Reporting by Reuters bureaux
Writing by Peter Graff, Editing by William Maclean and Rosalba O’Brien

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Read original article here

Blinken: Russian invasion of Ukraine could begin

“As we’ve said before, we’re in a window when an invasion could begin at any time — and to be clear that includes during the Olympics,” Blinken said.

Prior to the start of the Olympics earlier this month, Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman suggested that the Winter Games, which are hosted by China, could impact Russian President Vladimir Putin’s thinking about the timing of a potential invasion. Putin traveled to Beijing for the beginning of the Olympics and met with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The two released a lengthy pact pledging no limits to their cooperation.

Blinken told reporters at the joint news conference Friday that the US was “continuing to draw down our embassy” in the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv and “will continue that process.”

“And we’ve also been very clear that any American citizens who remain in Ukraine should leave now,” he added.

In Washington, the White House convened a meeting with several Cabinet members and senior national security officials in the Situation Room on Thursday night to discuss Russia’s ongoing military buildup near Ukraine, two officials familiar with the matter told CNN. There have been several Situation Room meetings in recent weeks and months to discuss the brewing crisis, one of the sources said, but the meetings have grown more urgent in recent days as Russia has continued to move forces, weapons and logistical equipment into the area and increased troop readiness.

Biden will hold a call with other world leaders at 11:00 a.m. ET Friday on the situation in Ukraine, a White House official told CNN. The leaders of Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Romania, NATO, the European Commission and the European Council will be on the call, according to the official.

Last month, the State Department authorized the departure of nonemergency personnel from the US Embassy in Kyiv and ordered family members to depart the country, and on Thursday it issued a new travel advisory for American citizens in Ukraine to “depart now via commercial or private means.”

Although Friday’s Quad discussions focused primarily on matters related to the Indo-Pacific region, Russia’s aggression toward Ukraine was discussed among the four foreign ministers.

The top US diplomat repeatedly noted that the crisis goes deeper than the physical threat posed by Russia to Ukraine and could undercut the international rules-based order that the Quad countries have vowed to uphold.

“What’s at stake is not simply, as important as it is, Ukraine’s territorial integrity, sovereignty, independence but very basic principles that have, in a hard-fought way after two World Wars and a Cold War, undergirded security, peace and prosperity for countries around the world — principles like one country can’t simply change the borders of another by force; principles like one country can’t simply dictate to another its choices, its policies, with who it will associate; principles like one country can’t exert a sphere of influence to subjugate its neighbors to its will,” Blinken said.

“If we allow those principles to be challenged with impunity, even if it’s half a world away in Europe, that will have an impact here as well,” he continued. “Others are watching. Others are looking to all of us to see how we respond. So that’s why it’s so important that we have this solidarity, that we do everything is possible through diplomacy, to try to avert a conflict and prevent aggression, but equally be resolute if Russia renews its aggression.”

Blinken said that although the Biden administration is “relentlessly” focused on trying to resolve the Russia-Ukraine crisis, his presence in Australia for the Quad meetings “underscores our commitment to staying focused on the Indo-Pacific.”

State Department officials are busy preparing for a wide range of potential meetings between US and Russian officials that may or may not happen as concerns continue to grow over a potential Russian invasion, two department officials told CNN.

The range of possible meetings include a meeting between Biden and Putin, a meeting between Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov or lower-level meetings.

Blinken said last month that the ball is in Russia’s court, and the officials said that remains the case when it comes to future diplomatic engagements. The United States gave Moscow a written response aimed at deterring a Russian invasion of Ukraine more than two weeks ago, and is waiting for Russia’s response.

When asked about the preparations underway, a State Department spokesperson said, “We remain open to meeting again with the Russians. And we will continue to closely coordinate with our allies and partners and abide by our north star: nothing about Europe without Europe.” The spokesperson added, “Nothing about NATO without NATO. And nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine. The (Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe) is also an important forum for diplomatic engagement.”

Earlier this week, US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield said that the US is keeping the doors of communication open with the Russians, and did not count out a possible meeting between Biden and Putin.

“We have not put that off the table but it has to be under the right circumstances,” Thomas-Greenfield said of any possible Putin-Biden meeting.

Diplomacy between the US and Russia has stalled in recent weeks. But Moscow has been actively engaged with other world leaders. French President Emmanuel Macron met Putin this week in Russia and the UK foreign minister met with Lavrov, also in Russia.

“There is a lot of diplomacy underway. President Biden spoke with President Macron after his diplomatic efforts, and we are engaged in regular conversations with our allies and partners, including UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, who was recently in Moscow,” the State Department spokesperson said.

The Biden administration has still not referred to the ongoing diplomacy with Russia in recent months as negotiations, preferring to hold out that descriptor for when the talks actually dig into substantive details.

In Melbourne, the foreign ministers said they discussed maritime security, including freedom of navigation and combating illegal fishing, strengthening cybersecurity and counterterrorism, building resilient supply chains and providing vaccines to combat the Covid-19 pandemic.

“Our region is in a period of rising strategic uncertainty,” Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne said at the news conference. “The rules and norms that have provided a foundation for our stability, and hence our prosperity are under pressure, in particular from authoritarian regimes.”

Asked by CNN whether the Quad had concerns about the lengthy cooperation agreement recently released by Putin and Xi, Payne said it was not about what the Quad was against but rather what it supports: “freedom and openness and transparency.”

“Where we see the sort of statement that was issued by the (Russian and Chinese) Presidents after the bilateral meeting, it is concerning because it doesn’t present or represent a global order that squares with those ambitions for freedom and openness and sovereignty and the protection of territorial integrity,” she said.

Indian Minister of External Affairs S. Jaishankar did not voice similar concerns but rather reiterated that Quad is “for something, not against somebody.”

CNN’s Natasha Bertrand, Betsy Klein and Jim Sciutto contributed to this report.

Read original article here

Ukraine crisis: Russia has in place 70% of military needed for full invasion – US officials | Ukraine

Russia has assembled at least 70% of the military firepower it intends to have in place by the middle of February to give President Vladimir Putin the option of launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, US officials have said.

On Saturday, officials warned that a full Russian invasion could lead to the quick capture of Kyiv and potentially result in as many as 50,000 civilians killed or wounded, according to the New York Times and Washington Post. A US official confirmed that estimate to the Associated Press but it is not clear how US agencies determined those numbers.

The grim assessment comes after British prime minister Boris Johnson agreed with French president Emmanuel Macron that the UK and its Nato allies would be united in their fight against Russian aggression “wherever and however it might occur”.

European leaders are due to travel to both Moscow and Kyiv in a bid to calm tensions.

Macron is expected to visit Moscow on Monday and Kyiv on Tuesday, while the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, will travel to Kyiv on 14 February and to Moscow the next day.

UK foreign secretary Liz Truss had been due to travel to Ukraine with the prime minister on Tuesday but had to drop out of the trip after testing positive for coronavirus. Truss will reportedly travel to Moscow soon.

US officials said that, as of Friday, the Russian army had put in place near Ukraine a total of 83 “battalion tactical groups”, each of which is roughly equivalent in size to an American battalion of between 750 and 1,000 soldiers. That is an increase from 60 battalion tactical groups in position just two weeks ago, they said.

Another 14 battalion tactical groups are on their way to the border area from other parts of Russia, the officials said. Two officials said the US assesses that Russia would want a total of between 110 and 130 battalion tactical groups for use in a full-scale invasion, but Putin could decide on a more limited incursion. Including support units, Russia might be aiming to have 150,000 troops in place for a full-scale invasion, one official said, adding that the ongoing buildup could reach that level in the next couple of weeks.

On Thursday, US officials claimed to have evidence of an elaborate plot by the Kremlin to make a “very graphic” fake video of a Ukrainian attack as a pretext for a military invasion. Downing Street said on Friday it has “high confidence” Russia is planning to fabricate a reason for attacking Ukraine.

The US officials, who discussed internal assessments of the Russian buildup on condition they not be identified, sketched out a series of indicators suggesting Putin intends an invasion in coming weeks, although the size and scale are unclear. They stressed that a diplomatic solution appears to remain possible.

Among those military indicators: an exercise of Russia’s strategic nuclear forces that usually is held in autumn was rescheduled for mid-February to March. That coincides with what US officials see as the most likely window for invasion. The officials made no suggestion that a prospective conflict would involve the use of nuclear weapons, but the Russian exercise – likely involving the test-launching of unarmed long-range missiles on Russian territory – could be used as a message aimed at deterring the west from intervening in Ukraine.

US officials have said in recent weeks that a Russian invasion could overwhelm Ukraine’s military relatively quickly, although Moscow might find it difficult to sustain an occupation and cope with a potential insurgency.

The ongoing Russian buildup comes as the Biden administration has been disclosing intelligence in hopes of pre-emptively countering Russian disinformation and blocking Putin’s plans to create a pretext for an invasion. But it has come under criticism for not providing evidence to back up many of its claims.

Army officials on Saturday announced that Major General Christopher Donahue, the commanding general of the 82nd Airborne Division, arrived in Poland. About other 1,700 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne are deploying to Poland from Fort Bragg, North Carolina, and 300 soldiers are deploying from Bragg to Germany. In addition, 1,000 Germany-based soldiers are shifting to Romania.

Captain Matt Visser, spokesman for the 18th Airborne Corps, which includes the 82nd division, said: “Our corps’ presence serves to bolster existing US forces in Europe and demonstrates our commitment to our Nato allies and partners.”

The corps was made up of “combat capable forces who stand ready to enhance the alliance’s ability to deter and defeat Russian aggression”, the US statement added.

Washington said last week it would send about 3,000 additional troops to eastern Europe to defend Nato members against any “aggression”.

With growing nervousness in Eastern Europe over Russia’s buildup, much attention is focused on its placement of thousands of troops in Belarus, which shares a border not only with Ukraine but also with three Nato nations: Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. The Biden administration may soon shift some more troops within Europe to allied nations on Nato’s eastern flank, a US official said on Saturday without specifying which nations.

Defence secretary Lloyd Austin said last week that Putin could use any portion of the force he has assembled along Ukraine’s borders to seize Ukrainian cities and “significant territories” or to carry out “coercive acts or provocative political acts” such as the recognition of breakaway territories inside Ukraine.

Depending on Putin’s ultimate objective, the Russian forces could attack Kyiv directly by moving south from current positions in southern Belarus. He might also send forces across the Russian border into eastern and southern Ukraine if his intent is to fracture and destroy a large portion of the Ukrainian army, the officials said.

On the lower end of the scale of military action, Putin might order sabotage, cyberattacks and other destabilising actions inside Ukraine with the goal of removing the current government in Kyiv, officials have said.

With Associated Press

Read original article here

U.S. Warns of Grim Toll if Putin Pursues Full Invasion of Ukraine

Mr. Putin has also deployed Special Operations forces — some 1,500 troops — near and even inside the Ukrainian border, the officials told lawmakers. Those troops, they said, work closely with the Russian military intelligence agency, the G.R.U., which has in the past directed cyber and other attacks on foes.

European officials tend to be more skeptical that Mr. Putin would try to take the country in a large-scale invasion. Some believe that he would seek to take the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, where a grinding proxy war has been underway since 2014.

Another theory is that Mr. Putin could expand that operation in an effort to annex all of eastern Ukraine, up to the Dnieper River. Along the way he could try to decimate Ukrainian troops in that part of the country, roughly half of the Ukrainian military. That could incite panic in the western part of Ukraine — where resistance to Russia might be highest — and prompt people to flee the country. Over time, that could lead top government officials to flee or to try to rule from exile.

American and European officials have made clear that a physical attack over the borders of Ukraine would lead to enormous sanctions on Russia’s banks, trade restrictions on semiconductors and other high-tech items and the freezing of the accounts of Russian oligarchs and leaders. But there is far less unanimity, as President Biden himself has acknowledged, about how to respond to a “minor incursion.” Or even what a minor incursion might be.

European and American officials worry that Mr. Putin might try to stage a coup in Kyiv. Another possibility is a cyberattack devised by Russia that tries to bring down parts or all of Ukraine’s electric and communications infrastructure, similar to the 2015 and 2016 attacks on parts of the country’s electric grid.

European officials say it is unclear how the Western allies would respond to such an attack. If they believed that the cyberoperations were a face-saving way for Mr. Putin to act and then retreat, they note, there might be a temptation to de-escalate and not seek to impose major sanctions, especially if there were few human casualties. On the other hand, a cyberattack could be a prelude to a full invasion, essentially cutting off Ukraine’s ability to communicate or track where Russian forces were coming from.

Michael Schwirtz contributed reporting from Kyiv, Ukraine.

Read original article here

Russia Ukraine: US carrier bolsters NATO to counter invasion threat as tensions reach fever pitch

A flight director on the United States Navy carrier gestures towards the jet, giving the go ahead for a catapult like-system to sling the aircraft towards the edge of a seemingly impossibly short runway.

Within seconds, it’s in the air and nearly out of sight.

This intricate process is one that pilots and crew on this Nimitz-class carrier — an emblem of US military might — repeat over and over again, with uncanny precision. And they’re doing so unfazed by the circumstances of their presence in the Adriatic Sea as tensions between the US and Russia reach fever pitch.

This is the first time since the end of the Cold War that a carrier strike group, which includes the Truman and five other ships escorting it (plus at least one or two submarines whose presence is never publicly acknowledged) has been under NATO command.

“This is the first time I’ve worked with NATO out on a carrier,” F/A-18 fighter jet pilot Lt. Cmdr. Alex Tidei told CNN.

“It’s the first time for a lot of our pilots — so that’s been a great experience,” he added, seemingly unaffected by the tensions around him.

The Truman — which carries 90 aircraft on board, including a fleet of F/A-18s — was on its way to the Middle East in mid-December, but the Pentagon decided to keep it in Europe as tensions began to escalate.

Rear Adm. Curt Renshaw, commander of Strike Group Eight, of which Truman is a part, told CNN: “I think it sends the message to allies that they can count on us. We’re committed to our alliances or partnerships — we’re able to operate, plug and play anywhere in the world.”

With the Truman near European shores, its jets can get to most of Eastern Europe in less than an hour, and its presence in the region gives NATO members like Bulgaria, Romania and Poland additional security guarantees.

While US President Joe Biden has said that the US will not intervene militarily but rather impose economic sanctions if Russia further invades Ukraine, he has decided to reinforce its deterrence capabilities in Europe.

On Wednesday, the Pentagon approved the deployment of additional troops to NATO’s Eastern flank.

“It’s totally consistent with what I told (Russian President Vladimir) Putin in the beginning,” Biden told CNN’s Kaitlan Collins Wednesday.

“As long as he’s acting aggressively, we’re going to make sure we reassure our NATO allies and Eastern Europe (that) we’re there and Article V is a sacred obligation,” Biden said, referencing the cornerstone of the NATO alliance: An attack against one ally is considered an attack against all.

And that’s what the Truman’s exercises are preparing for.

“What we bring to strategic decision makers is that we are able to execute absolutely to perfection, we’re able to integrate with partners,” Renshaw said, adding: “If at the tactical level, we’re on our game, then that that allows the options that I think the senior decision makers need to do.”

The Truman just wrapped a two-week-long exercise with NATO allies in the Adriatic Sea, alongside Norwegian and Turkish warships, additional vessels and aircraft from other NATO member states.

According to the alliance, thousands of NATO forces were involved in the exercise.

Lt. Cmdr. Jeannette Lazzaro, who flies the US Navy’s E-2 Hawkeye — an early warning aircraft that plays a key role in coordinating with NATO allies — told CNN she’s not concerned about rising tensions between the US and Russia.

Still, she believes the exercises are important to ensure that the US and NATO “are all working together.”

“If we ever do have to do anything, we are all on the same page,” she said.

Read original article here