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US

Ukraine crisis: Biden ‘convinced’ Putin plans invasion; ‘40% of Russian forces’ in attack position – live | World news

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In addition to talking to European allies and Americans at home, Harris has a message intended for Putin: step back from the precipice of war or suffer the most severe sanctions ever levied against Russia. But as the brewing crisis gets more complicated by the day, Biden and other administration officials have offered increasingly dire warnings that the window for diplomacy is narrow.

Biden on Friday told reporters he believes Putin has decided to invade in the coming days, taking military action that could go far beyond the disputed Donbas region and include the capital of Kyiv.

As Harris makes a late-inning push to Putin to pull back, she aimed to hit hard on the argument that the US will emerge stronger from a conflict while Russia will emerge weaker, a Biden administration official said.

Ahead of the speech, Harris sought to rally allies.

In addition to her meeting with the Baltic leaders, the vice president on Friday met with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, briefed a bipartisan group of US lawmakers attending the conference about the rapidly changing situation, and consulted with Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who was also in Munich.

Harris was scheduled to meet after her speech on Saturday with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

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World

Ukraine shelling renews invasion fears as Russia expels U.S. diplomat

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  • Ukraine and pro-Russians trade accusations over exchange of fire
  • Russia working on false flag incident, says Biden
  • Zelenskiy calls shelling ‘big provocation’
  • Moscow expels U.S. diplomat after expulsion in Washington

MOSCOW/KYIV, Feb 17 (Reuters) – Shelling in Ukraine on Thursday renewed Western fears of an imminent Russian invasion as U.S. President Joe Biden said Moscow is preparing a pretext to justify a possible attack and the Kremlin expelled an American diplomat.

Early morning exchanges of fire between Kyiv’s forces and pro-Russian separatists – who have been at war for years and where a ceasefire is periodically violated – caused alarm as Western countries have said an incursion could come at any time.

One of the deepest crises in post-Cold War relations is playing out in Europe as Russia wants security guarantees, including Kyiv never joining NATO, and the U.S. and allies offer arms control and confidence-building measures.

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While Russia accuses the West of hysteria, saying some its troops have returned to bases and that it has no plans to invade, many Western countries are adamant that the military build-up is continuing ahead of a possible assault.

“We have reason to believe they are engaged in a false flag operation to have an excuse to go in,” Biden told reporters at the White House. “Every indication we have is they’re prepared to go into Ukraine and attack Ukraine.” read more

He ordered Secretary of State Antony Blinken to change his travel plans at the last minute to speak at a United Nations Security Council meeting, where he outlined possible Russian scenarios. read more

“It could be a fabricated so-called terrorist bombing inside Russia, the invented discovery of a mass grave, a staged drone strike against civilians, or a fake – even a real – attack using chemical weapons,” Blinken said. “Russia may describe this event as ethnic cleansing, or a genocide.”

Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin said Blinken’s comments were regrettable and dangerous.

In a new blow to relations between the two world powers, Russia expelled U.S. Deputy Chief of Mission Bart Gorman. The move was announced on Thursday but a senior State Department official said he left last week.

Moscow cited the U.S. expulsion of a senior official in Washington, who it said was forced to leave before a replacement could be found as part of a U.S. “visa war”.

Washington said it would respond to the “unprovoked” move. Russian diplomats who have stayed longer than three years must leave the United States, while Moscow is giving U.S. diplomats less time, a State Department spokesperson said. read more

TRADING ACCUSATIONS

In Ukraine, Russian-backed rebels and Kyiv’s forces traded accusations that each had fired across the ceasefire line in eastern Ukraine, where Moscow accuses Kyiv of “exterminating” civilians.

Ukrainian government forces denied accusations of having targeted separatist positions in the breakaway region of Donbass, which borders Russia.

Details could not be established independently, but reports from both sides suggested an incident more serious than the routine ceasefire violations that are often reported in the area.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Moscow was “seriously concerned” about the reports. Russia has long said Kyiv wants an excuse to seize rebel territory by force, which Ukraine denies.

An interior view shows a kindergarten, which according to Ukraine’s military officials was damaged by shelling, in Stanytsia Luhanska in the Luhansk region, Ukraine, in this handout picture released February 17, 2022. Press Service of the Joint Forces Operation/Handout via REUTERS

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Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the pro-Russian forces had shelled a kindergarten, in what he called a “big provocation”.

Video footage released by Ukrainian police showed a hole through a brick wall in a room scattered with debris and children’s toys.

“Some provocations were planned for today, we expected them and thought that a war had begun,” Dmytro, a resident of the village of Stanytsia Luhanska, told Reuters.

The separatists, for their part, accused government forces of opening fire on their territory four times in the past 24 hours.

Neither account could be verified.

A Reuters photographer in the town of Kadiivka, in Ukraine’s rebel-held Luhansk region, heard the sound of some artillery fire from the direction of the line of contact, but was not able to determine details.

SUMMIT OF KEY LEADERS?

Estimates also vary as to how many Russia soldiers have massed near Ukraine. Nearby NATO member Estonia cited around 170,000 troops on Wednesday.

White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre said on Thursday that Russia had added 7,000 troops to its presence at the Ukrainian border over the past 24 hours.

“We see them fly in more combat and support aircraft. We see them sharpen their readiness in the Black Sea,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said at NATO headquarters in Brussels. “We even see them stocking up their blood supplies.”

Russia’s defence ministry released video it said showed more units leaving the area near the border.

Maxar Technologies, a private U.S. company that has been tracking the build-up, said satellite images showed that, while Russia has pulled back some military equipment from near Ukraine, other hardware has arrived. read more

As diplomatic efforts continue, Russia says its security demands are still being ignored.

“In the absence of the readiness of the American side to agree on firm, legally binding guarantees of our security from the United States and its allies, Russia will be forced to respond, including through the implementation of military-technical measures,” it said in a letter to the U.S. ambassador.

Blinken said Washington was evaluating the document and that he had earlier sent a letter to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov proposing a meeting between the pair in Europe as well as of the NATO Russia Council and the OSCE permanent Council.

“These meetings can pave the way for a summit of key leaders,” he said.

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Reporting by Reuters bureaux
Writing by Peter Graff, Mark Trevelyan, Philippa Fletcher and Costas Pitas
Editing by Alex Richardson, Gareth Jones, Frances Kerry and Grant McCool

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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World

Stocks slide again as Russia-Ukraine invasion fears resurface

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Stocks dropped right at the opening bell in the morning and remained in the red throughout the trading session. The Dow is down more than 1% for the week following Thursday’s losses.
The S&P 500 fell 2.1% Thursday and the Nasdaq was down 2.9%. Both indexes are now in the red for the week as well.
Investors are nervous about what a military conflict between Russia and Ukraine could mean for oil prices and the global economy, especially if the United States and leading nations in Europe become involved.
The sell-off was broad-based, with 25 of the 30 Dow components trading lower. Walmart (WMT) and Cisco (CSCO) were two of the Dow’s bright spots after both reported strong earnings. Cisco rose nearly 3% and Walmart gained 4%.
Coca-Cola (KO) and Procter & Gamble (PG) were two other Dow standouts, as investors flocked to safe haven consumer companies that have reliable sales and profits and pay steady dividends.

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Business

Dow sinks 623 points as Russia, Ukraine invasion fears spike

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Bianco Research president gives his take on money managers feeling that inflation is transitory on ‘Making Money.’

The selloff in U.S. stocks accelerated during the final hour of trading as investors continue to monitor tensions between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the Federal Reserve’s preparation for a March rate hike. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 623 points or 1.8%, the worst session of 2022, while the S&P 500 fell 2.1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite saw a steeper selloff of 2.8%. President Biden, when asked about the situation earlier today, told ABC News an invasion could be in just a matter of days. 

Ticker Security Last Change Change %
I:DJI DOW JONES AVERAGES 34312.03 -622.24 -1.78%
SP500 S&P 500 4380.26 -94.75 -2.12%
I:COMP NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX 13716.719187 -407.38 -2.88%

Oil rose to close at $91.76 per barrel, as gold closed above $1,900, a nine-month high, as investors sought out safer assets. 

Ticker Security Last Change Change %
USO UNITED STATES OIL FUND L.P. 64.17 +0.63 +0.99%
GLD SPDR GOLD SHARES TRUST – EUR ACC 177.28 +2.44 +1.40%

In earnings news, Walmart shares rose after profits and sales came in ahead of expectations and the retailer delivered a solid forecast for the year with profits expected to rise by mid-single-digits and sales around 3%. It also boosted its dividend to $0.56 per share. 

Ticker Security Last Change Change %
WMT WALMART INC. 138.76 +5.20 +3.89%

DoorDash Inc shares also popped after quarterly revenue beat estimates as food delivery demand showed no sign of slowing.

Ticker Security Last Change Change %
DASH DOORDASH INC. 105.08 +10.20 +10.75%

Shares of Cisco rose after the networking firm announced a $15 billion increase to its stock repurchase program and reported better-than-expected quarterly results.

Ticker Security Last Change Change %
CSCO CISCO SYSTEMS INC. 55.77 +1.52 +2.80%

Chipmaker Nvidia also in focus after posting strong quarterly results. 

Ticker Security Last Change Change %
NVDA NVIDIA CORP. 245.07 -20.04 -7.56%

Fastly, the cloud management company, saw its shares sink over 30% after forecasting weaker than expected revenue and a wider than expected loss. 

Ticker Security Last Change Change %
FSLY FASTLY INC. 19.20 -9.73 -33.63%

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In economic data, the Labor Department reported new claims for unemployment benefits rose to 248,000 from 223,000 the previous week. Continuing claims, which track the total number of unemployed workers collecting benefits, fell to 1.59 million. 

RETAIL SALES RISE FASTER THAN EXPECTED IN JANUARY DESPITE SURGING INFLATION

Separately, the number of new homes under construction in January fell 4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.68 million. Permits for future construction rose 0.7% to 1.89 million in January, the highest since May of 2006.

And the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s index of manufacturing activity for eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware slipped 7.2 points to 16.0.

CLICK HERE FOR FOX BUSINESS’ REAL-TIME CRYPTOCURRENCY PRICING DATA 

Bitcoin, in sympathy with stocks, slipped to the $40,000 level. 

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FOX Business’ Ken Martin and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Business

Dow Jones Futures Fall As U.S. Says Russia Invasion ‘Imminent’; Nvidia, Palantir, DASH Stock Are Earnings Movers

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Dow Jones futures fell slightly Thursday morning, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures, with the Russia/Ukraine crisis in focus and Nvidia headlining overnight earnings. The stock market rally fell solidly intraday Wednesday, but rallied to close little changed after newly released Fed meeting minutes that held no new, hawkish surprises.




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The U.S. envoy to the U.N. said Russia is moving toward an imminent invasion of Ukraine. Late Wednesday, a senior U.S. official said Russia has added some 7,000 troops near the border, refuting Kremlin claims that it was withdrawing some forces. The Kremlin said overnight that it’s worried about a flare-up of unrest in eastern Ukraine. Both the Ukrainian government and pro-Russia separatists claimed cease-fire breaches

Key Earnings Wednesday Night

Nvidia (NVDA), Albemarle (ALB), Applied Materials (AMAT), Cisco Systems (CSCO) and DoorDash (DASH) were among the many earnings reports Wednesday night.

Nvidia stock fell modestly early Thursday despite strong earnings and guidance. AMAT stock rose modestly on its positive results.

Cisco stock advanced on strong results, a 3% dividend increase and a $15 billion buyback plan, signaling a move above its 200-day line but still below its 50-day line. The Cisco results follow strong earnings from faster-growing rival Arista Networks (ANET) on Monday.

ALB stock plunged on disappointing earnings guidance.

DASH stock shot up 25% in extended trade on its earnings. If that holds during regular trading, the app-based delivery firm would test its tumbling 50-day line. That would still be more than 50% below DoorDash’s November peak of 257.25.

Look below for more on Nvidia, Albemarle and AMAT earnings and stock action.

PLTR Stock

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) missed on earnings and topped on revenue. PLTR stock tumbled 9% before the open.

Palantir investors were hoping for a PLTR stock spike like Upstart (UPST) and DASH stock. But plenty of beaten-down growth stocks have plunged recently on earnings.

In other news, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration initiated yet another Tesla probe, this time investigating “phantom braking” in Model 3 and Model Y vehicles. The complaints, which have mounted in recent months, are said to involve random, often repeated braking at highway speeds. Some 416,000 vehicles are potentially exposed. Tesla stock lost a fraction.

Fed Minutes

Fed minutes from the Jan. 25-26 policy meeting showed policymakers ready to begin interest rate hikes and curb the massive balance sheet soon, to confront inflation. But that was largely known before.

There may have been some relief that were no new hawkish surprises, such as several policymakers favoring turbocharged-tightening even last month. Remember, the January Fed meeting came before the January CPI report, which sent the 10-year yield above 2% and ramped up Fed rate hike forecasts.

The 10-year Treasury yield closed flat at 2.05%. But the two-year Treasury yield, more closely tied to Fed policy moves, sank 5 basis points to 1.52%. The U.S. dollar fell and gold rose. All of these moves indicate at least a sense that the Fed minutes were no-more hawkish than expected.

Nvidia stock is on IBD Leaderboard and the IBD 50.

Dow Jones Futures Today

Dow Jones futures lost 0.4% vs. fair value, getting a lift from Walmart (WMT), which topped views early Thursday. S&P 500 futures gave up 0.5% and Nasdaq 100 futures declined 0.7%.

Nvidia stock is a notable weight in the S&P 500 and especially Nasdaq futures. CSCO stock is a Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq component.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell 4 basis points to 2%. Crude oil futures fell slightly, but paring losses on Russia invasion fears. It’s well above levels in early electronic trading Wednesday afternoon while stock markets were still open.

Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.

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Stock Market Rally

The stock market rally fell solidly intraday, but came off lows on the Fed minutes release, closing narrowly mixed.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.2% in Wednesday’s stock market trading. The S&P 500 index rose 0.1%. The Nasdaq composite edged down 0.1%. The small-cap Russell 2000 edged up 0.2%.

Crude oil futures rose 1.7% to $93.66 a barrel, right around their highest levels since 2014. But crude oil prices fell in electronic trading, more than wiping out regular-session gains while U.S. stock markets were still open, as an Iranian nuclear negotiator said “we are closer than ever” to a deal with the Biden administration.

Among the best ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) and Innovator IBD Breakout Opportunities ETF (BOUT) both rose 0.4%. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) retreated 0.8%. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) closed just below break-even. Nvidia and AMAT stock are notable holdings.

SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) advanced 0.5% and Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF (PAVE) gained 0.75%. U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) were just above break-even. SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) picked up 0.4%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) advanced 0.8% and the Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) inched up 0.1%. The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) climbed 0.15%

Reflecting more-speculative story stocks, ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) sank 3.2% and ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) 1.3%.

Five Best Chinese Stocks To Watch Now

Nvidia Earnings

Nvidia earnings jumped 69%, coming in above fiscal Q4 views on strong data-center chip sales. The chip giant also gave bullish guidance.

Nvidia stock lost less than 2% early Thursday. Shares edged up 16 cents to 265.11 Wednesday, after surging 9.2% on Tuesday.

A move above the fast-falling 50-day line would also clear last week’s high and break a trend line, offering an aggressive entry in NVDA stock.

Nvidia earnings are especially important for the stock market rally and especially growth names. Nvidia stock is a megacap that has been a huge winner in recent years, and is close to an aggressive buy point. The Nvidia earnings reaction could be a catalyst for chip and tech stocks broadly, up or down. And while NVDA stock has a high price-to-earnings ratio of 68, it isn’t in the triple digits.

Applied Materials Earnings

Applied Materials earnings and sales narrowly topped fiscal Q1 views.

AMAT stock rose 2% in extended trade, getting close to its 50-day line. Shares edged up 0.8% to 140.96 on Wednesday, just above the 200-day line.

Applied Materials stock could be working on a new consolidation after a failed breakout, but needs more time and work. Reclaiming the 50-day line would be a good step.

Albemarle Earnings

Albemarle earnings fell slightly vs. a year earlier, but topped estimates. Revenue rose slightly, beating some views while just missing others. The lithium producer gave mixed guidance for 2022.

ALB stock plunged 11% before the open. Shares are signaling a dive below the 50-day moving average and nearing the 200-day line. Shares climbed 1.9% to 246 Wednesday. Albemarle stock popped 6% on Tuesday, moving back above the 50-day line. The Jan. 12 peak of 248 could offer an early entry, but that doesn’t seem relevant for the moment. The traditional buy point is 291.58, according to MarketSmith analysis.

The Albemarle earnings call isn’t until 9 a.m. ET on Thursday, so that also could move ALB stock right around the open.

Another lithium producer, Livent (LTHM), reports Thursday night. LTHM stock climbed 2.9% to 25.08 on Wednesday, also close to an early entry. But shares fell modestly overnight in sympathy with ALB stock.

Market Rally Analysis

The stock market rally gave up a good slice of Tuesday’s solid rebound. The S&P 500 index fell back below its 200-day moving average.

The major indexes are still within a range from their early February highs to Monday’s lows, but below their 21-day moving averages. If the major indexes break above their recent highs, that would signal renewed strength. But if the market rally — already under pressure — breaks below Monday’s lows, it would be a very bearish signal.

The Russell 2000 has fared a little better than other indexes over the past several sessions, reflecting slightly better market breadth in that time. But the small-cap index remains below key moving averages and not far from 52-week lows.

In the market overall, new lows continue to outpace new highs.

There are a number of headwinds facing the stock market rally. The Russia/Ukraine situation could go any number of ways over the next several weeks, making it very hard for the broader market to price in the future. Investors also are dealing with the Federal Reserve confronting the worst inflation in 39 years. The Fed meeting minutes may not have held any bombshells, but policymakers are going to start raising rates in mid-March.

Time The Market With IBD’s ETF Market Strategy

What To Do Now

With the stock market rally rangebound, moving on ever-changing headlines, there’s no real trend to follow right now. If a stock breaks out or flashes an early buy signal, how much confidence can you have that it won’t quickly fizzle out? There’s just no edge to be significantly invested right now.

If the market rebounds from here and goes on an extended run for weeks or months, you’ll have plenty of opportunities to take advantage.

Focus on building up watchlists and reviewing past trades. Stay engaged with the market, but you also don’t have to stare at screens nonstop. Make sure you’re mentally fresh for the next big advance.

Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with the market direction and leading stocks and sectors.

Please follow Ed Carson on Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.

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World

Ukraine Russia crisis: Russian build-up continues, but insufficient for full-scale invasion, Ukrainian military intelligence says

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The total number of Russian troops at the border has increased in recent days to more than 148,000, including more than 126,000 ground troops, the report says, echoing US intelligence about the build-up. A Ukrainian presidential spokesperson affirmed the reporting in comments to CNN ahead of an address by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

On Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Moscow was sending some of its troops at the border back to base after completing exercises. On Wednesday, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg rejected Putin’s claim and said the military buildup was continuing, describing it as “the most serious crisis in decades.”

A statement by NATO later on Wednesday said the buildup was “very large scale, unprovoked and unjustified.” NATO also said it was deploying additional land forces in the eastern part of the alliance, in addition to maritime and air assets. The measures, the statement said, remained “proportionate” and “non-escalatory,” in response to the “serious threat” of the Russian troop buildup.

“Unfortunately there’s a difference between what Russia says and what it does. And what we’re seeing is no meaningful pullback,” Blinken said on ABC’s Good Morning America.

“On the contrary, we continue to see forces, especially forces that would be in the vanguard of any renewed aggression against Ukraine, continuing to be at the border, to mass at the border,” he said.

According to the new Ukrainian intelligence report, 87 Russian Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) are on constant alert around Ukraine, up from 53 which are usually based in the area. BTGs are formations that consist of 800 to 1,000 Russian troops.

The numbers are consistent with the latest US assessment of the Russian troop buildup, but deviates from Western statements by playing down the threat of a full-scale invasion.

“The Russian military contingent near the Ukrainian border is insufficient to carry out a successful large-scale armed aggression against Ukraine,” the report said.

Instead, Ukrainian intelligence believes that Russia has focused its efforts on “destabilizing Ukraine’s internal situation” using punitive economic and energy-related tactics, as well as cyberattacks.

Largest cyberattack of its kind

A high-volume cyberattack that temporarily blocked access to the websites of Ukrainian defense agencies and banks on Tuesday was “the largest (such attack) in the history of Ukraine,” according to a government minister.

Speaking at a press conference Wednesday, Vice Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, who is also the minister of digital transformation, added that it is too early to tell who was responsible for the attack.

The so-called distributed denial of service (DDoS) attack — which bombarded Ukrainian websites with phony traffic — was coordinated and well planned, officials said.

DDoS attacks often disrupt access to IT systems, but their impact can be more psychological rather than having any direct effect on a country’s critical infrastructure.

‘Day of Unity’

Meanwhile on Wednesday, Ukraine marked a so-called “Day of Unity” — called for by Zelensky — as a show of defiance against Russia.

Hundreds of people observed flag-raising ceremonies in some of Ukraine’s city centers.

“This gathering is how we show our power to Putin,” Lviv regional governor Maksym Kozytskyy told CNN.

Speaking from the port city of Mariupol, which is believed to be vulnerable to attack in the case of an invasion, Zelensky vowed to “not succumb” to Russian provocations.

“We are not intimidated by any predictions (of war), any people, enemies, or any dates, because we will defend ourselves, whether it’s February 16th, 17th, or 18th — in March or April or September or December,” he said.

“What’s important is this is the year 2022, not 2014. We’ve become much stronger,” Zelensky added, referring to Russia’s 2014 invasion of Crimea.

Correction: A previous version of this story incorrectly stated that Ukraine blamed Russia for Tuesday’s cyberattack. Authorities have only raised the possibility that Moscow could have been behind the incident.

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World

As Russia Welcomes Talks, Biden Warns Invasion Is Still Possible

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MOSCOW — President Vladimir V. Putin said on Tuesday that Russia would “partially pull back troops” deployed near Ukraine and was seeking a “diplomatic path” to resolving a tense standoff with the West, while President Biden welcomed further negotiations but warned that a Russian invasion “remains very much a possibility.’’

It was the second day in a row that Moscow appeared to swerve away from confrontation over Ukraine, following its declaration on Monday that diplomatic options were “far from exhausted.’’

“We intend to and will strive to reach agreement with our partners on the questions that we posed, in order to solve them by taking a diplomatic path,” Mr. Putin said, standing alongside Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany at the Kremlin.

Mr. Putin’s willingness to continue discussions was welcomed hours later by President Biden, who vowed in afternoon remarks from the White House to “give the diplomacy every chance” to prevent a Russian invasion.

“As long as there is hope of a diplomatic resolution that prevents the use of force and avoids incredible human suffering that would follow,” Mr. Biden said, “we will pursue it.”

Mr. Biden cautioned, however, that Russian forces remain “in a threatening position” — an assessment that echoed the dire warning issued by the Pentagon just four days ago, that Russia could launch an attack as early as Wednesday.

The urgency of that warning seemed to recede on Tuesday as Mr. Putin adopted a more conciliatory tone and announced the intention to pull back troops. But much of Russia’s menacing force near Ukraine’s border remained in place, and Western officials said it was far too soon to exhale over the danger that Mr. Putin could launch a large-scale war. They also said it was too early to assess Moscow’s claim that it was pulling troops back from Ukraine’s border.

“The Russian defense ministry reported today that some military units are leaving the positions near Ukraine. That would be good,” Mr. Biden said. “But we have not yet verified that.’’

The Biden administration has threatened severe economic sanctions in the event of an invasion, while offering negotiations on some of Russia’s security concerns.

The carrot-and-stick approach, and the mixed signals from Moscow, illustrated the gamesmanship and the high-stakes rhetorical tactics that have marked the crisis over Russia’s troop buildup. The United States has been declassifying intelligence on Russia’s plans and sounding urgent warnings about a looming attack, in what American officials describe as a strategy meant to deter Mr. Putin from going through with an invasion.

Mr. Putin, by contrast, has kept his true intentions a mystery, mixing threats and military moves with optimistic appraisals about the potential for diplomacy — statements that have grown louder in recent days. Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov spoke with Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken on Tuesday and said the West had “responded positively” to Russia’s initiatives.

At the same time, the Russian leader and other senior officials on Tuesday made it clear that they saw the military threat as a tool for forcing the West to recognize a Russian sphere of influence in Eastern Europe — and that they were prepared to continue to keep the pressure on as negotiations continued.

Mr. Lavrov said he was open to American proposals such as negotiations over the placement of missiles in Europe; the outcome, he said, could be a “very decent, comprehensive package result.”

Asked on Tuesday how Russia would act next, Mr. Putin responded with a slight smile: “According to the plan.”

He said Russia would seek to achieve its key aims — centered on halting NATO expansion and forcing the alliance to draw down its military presence in Eastern Europe — peacefully, but that the outcome of the process “does not only depend on us.”

American officials have dismissed those demands as non-starters, and speaking from the East Room of the White House, Mr. Biden promised not to “sacrifice basic principles” that accord countries a right to choose their own alliances.

The president also reached out to the Russian people, after warning that a war would cause great human suffering. “The United States and NATO are not a threat to Russia,” he said, adding: “You are not our enemy.”

Despite the optimism Tuesday, the diplomatic path ahead was far from clear. Russia’s Foreign Ministry said it would soon send, and make public, a 10-page response to security proposals that the United States and NATO submitted last month. Italy’s foreign minister was scheduled to visit Moscow on Wednesday.

But beyond that, after a flurry of high-level Western phone calls and meetings with Mr. Putin and Mr. Lavrov, the diplomatic calendar appeared empty. Russia has said it will skip the Munich Security Conference this weekend, which had been a marquee annual event for Western officials to sit down with their Russian counterparts.

“We don’t know what happens next and how things will continue,” Mr. Scholz said after meeting for three hours with Mr. Putin. “But we can definitely say: there are enough starting points for things to develop well.”

Russia is demanding a guarantee that Ukraine will never join NATO, which leaders of the alliance describe as no more than a far-off prospect that is not currently under consideration. Ukrainian officials suggested this week that their country’s constitutionally enshrined aspiration to join NATO could be up for negotiation in order to avert war.

Mr. Scholz, who took over as chancellor in December, hinted that finding agreement among Russia, Ukraine and NATO on that issue could be a way out of the crisis.

“Everyone must step back a bit here and make it clear to themselves that we just can’t have a possible military conflict over a question that is not on the agenda,” Mr. Scholz told German reporters in Moscow after leaving the Kremlin. “It’s now our task to find a path that is OK for everyone in terms of their own positions and views.”

The White House warned last week that a Russian invasion of Ukraine could happen “any time,” including before the Winter Olympics end on Feb. 20.

On Tuesday, Russia appeared to relish an opportunity to prove the United States wrong. A Defense Ministry spokesman delivered a statement saying that some troops near Ukraine had “completed their tasks” and were heading back to their bases; state television aired footage of tanks being loaded onto rail cars.

Soon after, Mr. Lavrov predicted that the West would soon be taking credit for staving off an invasion that Russia in fact never planned, while Mr. Putin’s spokesman said the president had started jokingly asking “whether the exact time the war will start has been published somewhere.”

Western officials said it was too soon to tell whether the announced pullback would reduce the menace on Ukraine’s borders, but in Brussels, Jens Stoltenberg, the secretary-general of NATO, said signals from Moscow gave grounds for “cautious optimism.”

But it was also clear that Mr. Putin could maintain pressure on the West and on Ukraine without firing a shot — including by new military moves or other means like cyberattacks. On Tuesday evening, Ukraine’s defense ministry and army, as well as the interfaces of the country’s two largest banks, were hit by cyberattacks that caused some websites to go down and caused problems for customers seeking to withdraw cash.

And in Moscow, the Kremlin-controlled lower house of Parliament, the State Duma, gave Mr. Putin another bargaining chip by voting to ask him to recognize the Russian-backed separatist territories in Ukraine’s east as independent states. Such a move would open the door for Russia to officially move its troops into the region, and could spark new fighting because those unrecognized states claim more territory as rightfully theirs than they currently control.

In his news conference with Mr. Scholz, Mr. Putin repeated unfounded claims that Ukraine is carrying out a “genocide” against Russian speakers in the region, known as the Donbas, but indicated that he would not immediately recognize the territories’ independence.

Instead, Mr. Putin said he would keep pushing for implementation of the Minsk peace accords negotiated by Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France in 2015. In their Russian interpretation, the accords would in effect rule out NATO membership for Ukraine by allowing Russian-backed proxies in eastern Ukraine to veto foreign-policy decisions.

In Ukraine, worries about a possible Russian invasion remained.

“When we see the withdrawal, we will believe in de-escalation,” the foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, told reporters.

Western officials and analysts said the threat to Ukraine remained significant, and that it was too early to make firm conclusions about a possible drawdown without more information about which units were being sent back to their bases. The Russian Defense Ministry only announced a withdrawal of units from the country’s Western and Southern Military Districts, whose usual bases are the closest to Ukraine, so the units could easily return to the border region.

Units from the Central and Eastern districts, which are some of Russia’s most advanced, remain deployed and in recent days have arrayed themselves in attack formations in positions within a few dozen miles of the Ukraine border, according to satellite imagery.

“I wouldn’t read too much into this yet,” Rob Lee, an expert on Russia’s military, said of Moscow’s declaration that it was pulling back troops.

Mr. Lee, a U.S. Marine Corps veteran and Ph.D. candidate at King’s College in London, and others noted that Russia has in the past announced troop withdrawals only to leave weaponry and equipment in place for easy redeployment. It did this after a similar buildup near Ukraine last April as well as after large military exercises in late summer.

Anton Troianovski reported from Moscow and Michael D. Shear from Washington. Reporting was contributed by Valerie Hopkins and Andrew E. Kramer from Kyiv, Ukraine; Michael Schwirtz from Kherson, Ukraine; Steven Erlanger from Brussels; and Katrin Bennhold from Berlin.

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Biden: Ukraine invasion still ‘distinctly possible’ despite Russian claims | Ukraine

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Joe Biden has claimed that 150,000 Russian troops remain in a “threatening position” around Ukraine, despite Russian claims of a withdrawal, and he warned that an invasion “remains distinctly possible”.

In a televised address from the White House on Tuesday afternoon, Biden combined a repeated offer of security talks with a warning of severe repercussions if Russia carries out an attack that US intelligence has reportedly assessed could take place as early as Wednesday.

He said he would “rally the world” to oppose Russian military action but made clear that the response would be primarily economic, saying: “I will not send American servicemen to fight in Ukraine.”

But he made clear that any attack on Nato territory or harm to Americans would be treated differently.

“We’re not seeking direct confrontation with Russia, though I’ve been clear that if Russia targets Americans and Ukraine, we will respond forcefully,” Biden said. “If Russia attacks the United States or our allies through asymmetric means, like disruptive cyber-attacks against our companies or critical infrastructure, we’re prepared to respond.”

Earlier in the day, the websites run by the Ukrainian defence ministry, the armed forces and the country’s largest commercial bank, PrivatBank, were closed down after a cyber-attack. The Washington Post cited intelligence sources as saying the attack was probably the work of Russian government hackers, but the White House said it could not comment on attribution.

Biden was speaking hours after Vladimir Putin had claimed that a “partial” drawdown of Russian forces from the Ukrainian border.

Asked for the reason for the drawdown on Tuesday, Putin was not forthcoming. “It’s a partial withdrawal of troops from the areas of our exercises,” he said in response to a question during a press conference with the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz. “What is there to comment on?”

In his televised address, Biden made clear the US was unconvinced by the Kremlin’s claims of a withdrawal.

“We have not yet verified that Russian military units are returning to their home bases. Indeed our analysts indicate that they remain very much in a threatening position,” the president said. “The fact remains right now Russia has more than 150,000 troops encircling Ukraine and Belarus and along Ukraine’s border. An invasion remains distinctly possible.”

Russia has always denied planning to invade Ukraine, saying it can exercise troops on its own territory as it sees fit. It has been pressing for a set of security guarantees from the west, including a guarantee that Ukraine will never join Nato.

Biden repeated the US and Nato position that they will not compromise on the right of Ukraine and other countries to decide their own security policy, including alliances.

“The United States has put on the table concrete ideas to establish a security environment in Europe. We’re proposing new arms control measures, new transparency measures, new strategic stability measures,” the president said. “We are willing to make practical result-oriented steps that can advance our common security. We will not sacrifice basic principles, though. Nations have a right to sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

Addressing the Russian people directly, the president said: “You are not our enemy, and I do not believe you want a bloody destructive war against Ukraine, a country and the people with whom you share such deep ties of family history and culture.”

“If Russia does invade in the days and weeks ahead, the human cost for Ukraine will be immense,” he said, adding it would be “a self-inflicted wound” for Russia.

He also prepared Americans for consequences, saying: “I will not pretend this will be painless, there could be impact on our energy prices.” He pledged that his administration would take steps to mitigate that impact.

In another sign of Russia turning the screw on Ukraine, the state duma voted on Tuesday to ask Putin to recognise the independence of the two Russian-controlled separatist regions in the east of the country.

Putin, hinting that he intended to use them as leverage, said he would not recognise the “republics” immediately, but called on Nato to negotiate with him on Russia’s security guarantees before it was “too late”.

“We hear that Ukraine is not ready to join Nato; we know that,” Putin said. “At the same time, they say it’s not going to join tomorrow. But by the time they get ready for it, it may be too late for us. So we have to decide this question now, right now, in the very near future, we have to have a negotiation process for this.”

The drawdown was first announced on Tuesday morning by the defence ministry spokesperson, Igor Konashenkov, who described ongoing exercises that involved forces from “practically all military districts, fleets and the airborne forces”.

The defence ministry released video apparently shot in Crimea of Russian tanks and other heavy weaponry from two brigades being loaded on to railway cars. Otherwise, the Russian military gave little information about which forces would be withdrawn and where they would be sent.

Nato’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, said: “We believe there is some ground for cautious optimism based on the signals and signs coming from Moscow, that they are ready to engage in a diplomatic effort and we are ready to continue to engage in a diplomatic effort.”

Ukrainian officials said they would not take Moscow at its word about a drawdown. “Many statements are constantly being made from [Russia], so we have a rule: we’ll believe it when we see it,” said Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s foreign minister. “If we see the withdrawal then we will believe in de-escalation.”

The Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, accused the west of manufacturing “manic information madness”.

“We’ve always said the troops will return to their bases after the exercises are over. This is the case this time as well,” he said.

Scholz arrived in Moscow on Tuesday for meetings with Putin, the latest in a series of visits and phone calls from western leaders seeking to avert a potential war through negotiations.

Putin said he was “ready to work further” with the west on how to de-escalate the crisis on the Ukrainian border, while Germany’s chancellor said the diplomatic channels were “not yet exhausted”, at a joint press conference marked by subtle swipes and simmering historical resentment.

“We are ready to work further together, we are ready to go down the negotiations track,” said Putin, who denied that his country was seeking an invasion of Ukraine. “As to whether we want [war]: of course not. That’s why we have made these proposals about negotiations, the results of which should be an agreement about equal security for all countries, including ours.”

Russia has previously announced the conclusion of military exercises near the Ukrainian border, but social media and satellite photography taken in the following days have not shown considerable changes to Russia’s force posture. Those exercises involved only a small number of troops.

Many of the troops located close to the Ukrainian border are not involved in any formal training.

Russia is holding large joint exercises with Belarus scheduled to end on 20 February. Western countries have said those drills could be used as cover to prepare for an attack on Ukraine, while Russia has said the troops will return to base once the exercises have concluded.

On Tuesday, Russia also deployed long-range nuclear-capable bombers and fighter jets carrying state-of-the-art hypersonic missiles to its airbase in Syria for big naval drills in the region.

Russia’s defence minister, Sergey Shoigu, met Syrian president Bashar al-Assad after arriving in Syria to oversee the drills that mark the biggest Russian naval deployment to the Mediterranean Sea since the cold war.

Additional reporting by Daniel Boffey in Brussels and Patrick Wintour in London

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Biden says Russian invasion of Ukraine “remains distinctly possible,” but there’s still room for diplomacy

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President Biden said Tuesday that a Russian invasion of Ukraine “remains distinctly possible,” but held out hope that a diplomatic resolution could be reached.

“This is about more than just Russia and Ukraine — it’s about standing for what we believe in,” Mr. Biden said. 

Mr. Biden said the U.S. has “not verified” Russian claims that it has started a troop drawdown near Ukraine, and U.S. analysts still believe there are 150,000 troops circling the border with Ukraine and Belarus. 

While the U.S. has ruled out sending troops into Ukraine to defend against a Russian attack, the president warned Russian President Vladimir Putin that the U.S. would take action if Russian forces move into any of the NATO countries surrounding Ukraine, saying “an attack on NATO is an attack on all of us.” 

Mr. Biden’s address at the White House came after Ukrainian officials said Tuesday that some of their national security and financial sites were under attack by hackers.

The Ukrainian Defense Ministry tweeted that its website has likely been hit by a denial-of-service attack, noting that “an excessive number of requests per second was recorded.”  

President Joe Biden speaks about Ukraine in the East Room of the White House, Tuesday, Feb. 15, 2022, in Washington.

Alex Brandon / AP


The ministry said that it’s working on restoring the website. 

Ukraine’s Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security confirmed reports of the cyberattacks, stating, “For the last few hours, Privatbank has been under a massive DDoS attack.” Users reported that they were having problems with payments, as well as with the app. Some had trouble logging in, while others could not access their balance or recent transactions, according to the center.

Privatbank said that depositors’ funds face “no threat” — it’s just the app that is affected, and financial transactions “are perform[ing] normally.” Oschadbank’s internet banking is down. 

The center theorized, “It is possible that the aggressor resorted to the tactics of petty mischief, because by and large, his aggressive plans do not work.” However, it did not blame Putin for the attacks, and it is currently unclear at this time who is behind the attacks.

The last significant cyberattack on Ukraine took place in January, and Ukraine’s ambassador told CBS News’ Margaret Brennan that an invasion by Moscow was likely to be preceded by hacking.

“If Russia decides on a full invasion, then we know that we should expect increased cyberattacks before that,” Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova told CBS News.

The FBI and Department of Homeland Security on Monday held a call to warn law enforcement, military and U.S. infrastructure stakeholders to be prepared for potential Russian cyberattacks that correspond with a possible invasion of Ukraine. 

— David Martin, Tucker Reals, Olivia Gazis, Eleanor Watson, Nicole Sganga, Kathryn Watson and Caroline Linton contributed to this report.



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Why Russian Invasion Peril Is Driving Oil Prices Near $100

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The threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine is shaking up a fragile global oil market, pushing prices closer to $100 a barrel as traders calculate that supplies will struggle to cushion the effect from any significant disruption in Russian fossil fuel exports.

Demand for oil has outpaced production growth as economies slowly rebound from the worst of the pandemic, leaving the market with a small buffer to mitigate an oil-supply shock. Russia is the world’s third-largest oil producer, and if a conflict in Ukraine leads to a substantial decrease in the flow of Russian barrels to market, it would be perilous for the tight balance between supply and demand.

Those dynamics have led traders in recent days to price in a sizable geopolitical risk premium, according to analysts. Crude oil prices, which haven’t topped $100 a barrel since 2014, jumped to an eight-year high on Ukraine concerns Friday.

Prices fell slightly in early trading Monday, with Brent crude, the global benchmark in energy markets, down 0.3% at $94.07 a barrel but still near its highest level since 2014.

“We are setting up for a period of turbulence,” said Jason Bordoff, founding director of Columbia University’s Center for Global Energy Policy. “The threat is more pronounced when energy markets are tight.”

Concerns about a potential Russian invasion are adding to what has been a volatile stretch for stocks amid concerns about higher inflation and rising bond yields. Russia also is a sizable exporter of other commodities, including wheat, which could impact prices in the event of military conflict, analysts and consultants say.

A sharp rise in prices for natural gas and oil could have ripple effects on the prices of gasoline.



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Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

For now, analysts say a major disruption appears unlikely, as the Biden administration hasn’t signaled that retaliatory measures will include sanctions against Russia’s energy industry. Russia, in turn, relies heavily on revenue from its fossil-fuel exports, making it unlikely to shut the spigot in its own act of retaliation, say analysts.

But the White House has said no punishment is off the table, and war can lead to unpredictable outcomes. The U.S. warned Friday that a Russian military invasion could happen at any moment, with tens of thousands of casualties. Russia, which has massed some 130,000 troops along Ukraine’s borders, denies it intends to invade its neighbor.

The stakes for the rest of the world are high. A sharp rise in prices for natural gas and oil could have ripple effects on the prices of gasoline and many consumer goods, potentially driving inflation higher.

In a press conference, President Biden said the U.S. would stop Nord Stream 2 – a pipeline to transport natural gas from Russia to Germany – if Moscow invades Ukraine. The German chancellor expressed support but didn’t explicitly say the project would be halted. Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

Russia plays an outsize role in global commodity markets. It exports about 5 million barrels a day of crude, roughly 12% of global trade, and around 2.5 million barrels a day of petroleum products, about 10% of global trade, according to investment bank Cowen. About 60% of Russia’s oil exports go to Europe, and another 30% go to China.

The tension over Ukraine comes as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia, known collectively as OPEC+, pledged to carefully put more barrels back on the market as demand rebounds, but has fallen short of its oil-production targets.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are the only OPEC+ producers that appear to have significant spare production capacity.



Photo:

Amr Nabil/Associated Press

The group last year agreed to lift output by 400,000 barrels a day each month. But so far it is more than 1 million barrels a day shy of its target, said

Andy Lipow,

an oil analyst and president of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston.

“The market now questions the ability of OPEC+ to restore production to the pre-pandemic levels,” Mr. Lipow said.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are the only two OPEC+ producers that appear to have significant amounts of spare production capacity, Mr. Lipow added.

IHS Markit

expects global oil demand to grow by between 3.8 million barrels and 4 million barrels a day from January to December, with another leg of strong growth expected after the Omicron variant of coronavirus subsides.

Meanwhile, though American frackers are dispatching more drilling rigs in response to high prices, any substantial increase in their oil production is still months away. Shale companies have pledged to limit production growth and return more cash to shareholders, potentially limiting their ability to fill any supply gap. Energy consulting firm Wood Mackenzie last week projected oil production from the contiguous U.S. would increase by 240,000 barrels a day by the end of 2022.

For now, the most likely energy disruption would be to Russia’s exports of natural gas, say analysts. Russia exports around 23 billion cubic feet of gas a day, about 25% of global trade, and 85% of that gas goes to Europe, according to Cowen. In particular, Russia’s flow of natural gas to Europe through a pipeline network in Ukraine could be disrupted during a conflict. The network transports about 4 billion cubic feet a day at full capacity to Europe but is currently flowing at about 50%, according to Cowen.

Russian natural gas flows to Europe have been running lower than usual in recent months. If Russia further reduces natural gas flows to Europe or U.S. sanctions limit them, European companies would struggle to replace the supplies. European gas prices have recently reached records and, as a result, the market already is directing much of the spare supply of liquefied natural gas to Europe. Most operational LNG facilities in the world’s largest exporters—the U.S., Qatar and Australia—are running at full capacity, and there is little new supply to add.

Russia would pay a heavy price if its sale of fossil-fuel exports is reduced. Approximately half of Russia’s federal budget is tied to oil and gas, according to investment bank Raymond James. President Biden said the Russian-built Nord Stream 2 natural-gas pipeline to Germany would be suspended if Russia invades Ukraine, which alone would result in an $11 billion write-down for state-owned energy company

Gazprom,

the bank said.

A reduction of natural gas also could have ripple effects in oil markets as stiff competition and higher prices for gas could force some power plants and others that run on gas to use oil instead, ultimately leading to higher oil prices, say analysts.

Even if the U.S. doesn’t target Russia’s energy industry, other sanctions could still have knock-on effects on commodity markets. Sanctions on financial institutions, for example, may make funding energy operations more difficult, said

Matthew Reed,

an analyst at Washington-based consulting firm Foreign Reports.

Mr. Reed said some are concerned that a second round of sanctions, if the first fails to deter Russia, would directly target energy supplies.

“The real risk here isn’t necessarily the first round of sanctions,” Mr. Reed said. “It’s the second round that comes after, if everyone realizes the first was a waste of time.”

Write to Christopher M. Matthews at christopher.matthews@wsj.com and Collin Eaton at collin.eaton@wsj.com

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