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Who will replace Jeff Brohm at Purdue? Watch for Dino Babers, Troy Calhoun and more

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Jeff Brohm is leaving Purdue to return home to Louisville, opening up another Power 5 job. Brohm did an excellent job with the Boilermakers and leaves the program on a high note. He won 17 games the past two seasons, the Big Ten West this year, and finished 12-6 in Big Ten play. Purdue is a tough job, though, and it probably has only gotten tougher with Michigan continuing its ascent, Illinois springing back to life under Bret Bielema and Nebraska and Wisconsin adding top-tier head coaches in Matt Rhule and Luke Fickell respectively.

Purdue has produced a lot of good NFL talent but big success on the field in the Big Ten has been spotty. The program hasn’t won 10 games since 1979 — the school’s only 10-win season. Joe Tiller did well a generation ago but prior to Brohm’s arrival Purdue had a dud of a decade of football. We suspect the Boilermakers will lean toward an offensive mind, since most of their success came under Brohm and Tiller.

Head coach candidates

Dino Babers, Syracuse: Babers spent three seasons as a Purdue wide receivers coach in the early 1990s. He’s a good offensive coach and has a lot of presence. Babers is 61, but seems at least 10 years younger. He also knows the area well from four impressive seasons as head coach at Eastern Illinois and Bowling Green. He’s been up-and-down at Syracuse in his seven seasons there; this year, the Orange went 7-5 but peaked at No. 14 in the nation before losing five in a row. And that’s a program that is in a really tough place to win now.

Troy Calhoun, Air Force: Calhoun has done well at Air Force for a long time. He coached in the MAC at Ohio for a half-dozen years in the 1990s. He’s 33-11 the past four years. He’s a really good coach and very good on offense. The Oregon native is 56 and might make a lot of sense for the Boilermakers.

Jason Candle, Toledo: Candle, 43, is another really good offensive mind who Miami almost hired a year ago as offensive coordinator. He just led Toledo to a MAC title and he’s been on a lot of athletic directors’ radars for awhile. He got off to a fast start there, succeeding his buddy and former Mount Union teammate Matt Campbell, going 11-3 in his second season. Since then, his teams have been good more than great, but he has shown he can be a consistent winner.

Kane Wommack, South Alabama: Wommack has a strong defensive background and is a rising star in coaching. The 35-year-old knows the Big Ten well. His defense at Indiana in 2020 played a huge role in the Hoosiers finishing No. 12. He took over a program that has never had a winning season in 11 years at the FBS level and the Jaguars went 10-2; their two losses this year came by a combined five points, including a one-point loss to top-10 UCLA. If Purdue is not locked in on an offensive coach, he should get strong consideration.

Assistant coach candidates

Among these rank four men with strong Big Ten ties we think might get some consideration and a fifth who might be an attractive option.

Todd Monken, Georgia OC: The latter is Monken, who is actually from Wheaton, Ill., two and a half hours away. The 56-year-old won the national title last year and has put the Bulldogs in good position to win a second. He’s helped turn former walk-on Stetson Bennett into a Heisman finalist and has created unique ways to exploit the talent of tight end Brock Bowers. A former NFL OC,  Monken did an outstanding job as a head coach at Southern Miss, taking the Golden Eagles from 1-11 his first year to 9-5 in his third season despite big administrative challenges.

Jim Leonhard, Wisconsin defensive coordinator: Leonhard, who went 4-3 as the Badgers’ interim head coach this year, will leave his alma mater after the bowl game. Right after he took over, the Badgers beat Brohm and the Boilermakers 35-24. He’s shown that he’s one of the brightest defensive minds in football. Expect Leonhard to be a hot commodity in college and the NFL for places looking to upgrade the defense. Would be a fit for Purdue as a leader? We’ll see.

Sherrone Moore, Michigan co-OC/offensive line coach: Moore has been a huge asset to Jim Harbaugh and has proven to be a very good play caller this year. The 36-year-old’s O-line won the Joe Moore Award and this year’s unit is even more deserving of it.  Moore has been critical for Jim Harbaugh staff, turning this team into the bully of the Big Ten and dominating arch-rival Ohio State the past two years. The Wolverines rushed for 549 yards in those two games combined. We know Moore is going to be a very choosy about his next move and is locked in on trying to win a national title, but Purdue brass might want to still reach out.

Ryan Walters, Illinois DC: Walters has made a big impact in the Big Ten in helping the Illini breakthrough, turning one of the country’s worst defenses into the second-best (at 4.26 yards per play allowed). The 36-year-0ld Colorado product, who came from Missouri, has risen up the ranks fast and is a name to remember.

Brian Hartline, Ohio State passing game coordinator: Hartline was a candidate at Cincinnati and might be in play here. The 36-year-old is arguably the top position coach in college football for his work recruiting and developing the Buckeyes’ incredibly stacked receiver room. The Ohio native would have to consider a solid Big Ten job if offered. We know he can get talent.

Wild cards

Kevin Sumlin: The former Purdue linebacker has deep ties inside the school. Sumlin, 58, was the hottest coach in college football a decade ago. He fizzled out at Texas A&M after leading the Aggies to their first top-5 season in a half-century. (He went 51-26 there, which is actually better than his successor Jimbo Fisher has done there since.) Sumlin then took Arizona and that proved to big a big mistake for both him and the Wildcats. He had a dismal run, going 9-20. If he’s re-energized and re-focused, this could be an interesting fit.

Dan Mullen: The former Florida and Mississippi State head coach had two top-10 seasons before the bottom dropped out on him in 2021 after a lot of bad recruiting caught up to his program. Mullen, 50, spent a season doing TV. If he’s re-dedicated and can put together a good staff, he also might be an attractive option.

(Top photo of Dino Babers: Rich Barnes / USA Today)



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Ranking 131 college football teams after Week 12: TCU keeps proving it belongs

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There has been a general sense around the College Football Playoff conversation that TCU is lucky to be there and that one loss will knock the Horned Frogs out. But that shouldn’t be the case.

No doubt, TCU has needed a number of second-half comebacks to win, none more notable than the fire drill game-winning field goal to beat Baylor on Saturday. But this goes back further. Last week, ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith dismissed the Frogs and said they hadn’t played anyone and that “competition matters.” He read off the schedule and said it isn’t deserving of a top-four ranking, even if undefeated.

It got a lot of reaction, because that’s the point, after all. But Smith was not alone. Paul Finebaum, in the same segment, agreed and downplayed the quality of the Big 12.

What Smith, Finebaum and others missed is that the Big 12 is the deepest conference in the country. Eight of 10 teams are bowl-eligible. There are no pushovers, and the nine conference games are more than the SEC or ACC. Among the CFP top four, TCU has the strongest strength of schedule in multiple ratings, including ESPN’s FPI and Sagarin. The Horned Frogs are No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of record, which evaluates the chances the average top-25 team would have that same record against the same schedule.

An undefeated TCU will make the CFP. We know that. The conversation we should be having is whether or not a one-loss TCU should get in.

All of that said, the place where you can ding the Frogs is they lack a true marquee win. Georgia beat Oregon and Tennessee. Ohio State and Michigan beat Penn State. Every team TCU has defeated has at least three losses. That’s in part due to the depth of the conference. But if you want to prove you can beat a top-tier team, TCU hasn’t done that and won’t have a chance to. (Michigan and Ohio State will try to prove it against each other.) That ultimately could be what keeps TCU out if it doesn’t win the next two games.

But what you can’t say is that TCU hasn’t played anyone. You can’t say it hasn’t deserved these victories. After a weekend in which Georgia, Ohio State and Michigan all struggled against far inferior opponents, maybe pulling out a late November comeback at Baylor proved the Horned Frogs do belong.

Here is this week’s edition of The Athletic 131.

1-10

Rank Team Record Prev

1

11-0

1

2

11-0

2

3

11-0

3

4

11-0

4

5

10-1

7

6

9-2

6

7

10-1

9

8

9-2

5

9

9-2

8

10

9-2

11

There is no change in the top four, and the moment of truth is here. After Michigan escaped Illinois, I thought I would finally put Ohio State ahead. Then the Buckeyes had to escape against Maryland. Every argument you can make about these two teams has its points. Ohio State has a better second win (Notre Dame), while Michigan didn’t play anyone in nonconference. Michigan flattened Penn State, while Ohio State needed a fourth-quarter comeback. Ohio State’s struggles in certain conditions make me think this could be a replay of last year, when Michigan’s toughness in the trenches won out. But now Wolverines running back Blake Corum may be hurt, and quarterback J.J. McCarthy has not been very good. I’m not sure if Michigan can win a big game with his arm.

I still lean toward Michigan slightly, but now it will finally be settled on the field and we can move on to arguing if the loser should be in the CFP.


Michigan held onto an undefeated record before the Ohio State game. (Rick Osentoski / USA Today)

USC finally got a marquee win, beating UCLA 48-45, which moves the Trojans ahead of LSU. The Tigers do have wins against Alabama and Ole Miss and the schedule is tougher. But USC doesn’t have a lopsided loss, and the Oregon State win on the road is valuable. Either way, both of these teams still control their destiny for the CFP, I believe.

Clemson jumps up to No. 7 due to Tennessee’s lopsided loss to South Carolina. The loss to Notre Dame still holds Clemson down, but the Florida State win has gotten better with time.

Tennessee’s 63-38 loss to South Carolina makes the Vols a very difficult team to place. They’re out of the CFP race, but wins against LSU and Alabama keep them from dropping further. The only other change is Washington moving into the top 10 after Utah’s loss to Oregon.

11-25

Penn State is an odd team to judge as well. The 9-2 Nittany Lions have seven blowout wins, but they’re against relatively weak competition. None of the wins stand out. They got manhandled at Michigan but played Ohio State tough. Oregon stays ahead of Penn State because it has two marquee wins against Utah and UCLA. Notre Dame continues to inch up and up, and Clemson’s move back up makes that Irish win even better. The Irish also moved ahead of Florida State because of the Clemson results between them.

The Group of 5’s New Year’s Six spot is still likely to go to the American Athletic Conference champ, but it’s about time Coastal Carolina, UTSA and Troy are recognized for the seasons they’re having as well.

26-50

Illinois stays put after the narrow loss at Michigan because of the effort and because of other results around the country. UCF drops out of the top 25 after a loss to Navy but remains ahead of Cincinnati because of the head-to-head. That could change when Cincinnati and Tulane meet this week. Iowa is back, controlling its destiny in the Big Ten West after beating Minnesota. Kirk Ferentz keeps doing just enough.

South Carolina is another tough team to place. The blowout win against Tennessee is one of the most impressive of the season, but the Gamecocks also got trounced by Florida last week and lost to Arkansas earlier in the season. The Razorbacks stay behind Liberty because of the head-to-head loss.

Oklahoma moves ahead of Oklahoma State after Saturday’s 28-13 Bedlam win. Boise State’s win at Wyoming clinched the Mountain West’s Mountain division and home field in the league championship game. The Broncos are 6-1 since a 2-2 start, when they fired their offensive coordinator and QB Hank Bachmeier entered the transfer portal. They’ve figured things out, but losses to UTEP and BYU still keep them behind other Group of 5 teams.

51-75

Wisconsin sneaked into bowl eligibility for the 21st consecutive season with a 15-14 comeback win against Nebraska. It hasn’t been pretty, but it looks like Jim Leonhard will probably get the full-time job. Houston demolished East Carolina 42-3 and continues to be one of the most inconsistent teams in the country. James Madison is 7-3 in its first FBS season, but it is not eligible for the postseason as a transitioning FCS team. However, the Dukes can still win a share of the Sun Belt East if they beat Coastal Carolina this week.

Iowa State lost 14-10 to Texas Tech and will miss a bowl game. The Cyclones are 3-11 in one-possession games over the past two seasons. SMU has allowed 145 points over the past three games, including 59 in Thursday’s loss to Tulane. Wyoming’s narrow loss to Boise State doesn’t drop the Cowboys far. Appalachian State and Georgia Southern will play for bowl eligibility in their rivalry game next week, as App State is not yet eligible because it has two FCS wins. Texas A&M got past UMass in another uninspiring performance. How about Vanderbilt? The Commodores have defeated Kentucky and Florida in consecutive weeks.

Fresno State turned around its season in a big way and clinched the Mountain West’s West division with a 41-14 win against Nevada, its sixth consecutive win. San Diego State has won five of six (the loss coming to Fresno State) and quarterback Jalen Mayden has given that offense a boost for the first time in a long time.

76-100

Miami had nine yards at halftime against Clemson and lost 40-10. The Canes must beat Pitt to get to a bowl game. Georgia Tech beat North Carolina 21-17, and Brent Key is 4-3 as interim head coach with two Top 25 wins. Ohio’s bounce-back continued with a 32-18 win against Ball State, and the Bobcats are one win away from winning the MAC East, but the status of injured quarterback Kurtis Rourke is key.

Cal beat rival Stanford 27-20. UConn lost to Army 34-17 and must wait and hope for a bowl selection. FAU lost 49-21 to Middle Tennessee with bowl eligibility on the line and must beat WKU next week. Rice (at North Texas) and UTEP (at UTSA) also need upsets next week to get to bowl games and perhaps save their coaches’ jobs. Indiana beat Michigan State 39-31 in double overtime despite being heavily outgained and completing just two passes. Virginia Tech ended its long losing streak with a 23-22 win at Liberty. UNLV began the season 4-1 but has lost six consecutive games after a 31-25 loss at Hawaii, ending its bowl hopes.

101-131

Bowling Green got bowl-eligible with a last-second touchdown at Toledo in the snow in a wild finish. The Falcons are still in the mix for the MAC East title if they can beat Ohio. Buffalo’s game against Akron was snowed out and could impact that MAC East tiebreaker. Navy beat UCF and Army beat UConn, and both did so without completing a pass. Neither academy will have a bowl game or the Commander-In-Chief’s trophy to compete for (because Army has two FCS wins and Air Force clinched the CIC), but that rivalry game is always special. The middle of the MAC continues to have a lot of parity. UMass fought valiantly against Texas A&M and covered the spread in a 20-3 loss, but it’s not enough to move out of the bottom spot.

(Top photo:  Tom Pennington / Getty Images)



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Staples: Ranking 13 teams eligible for College Football Playoff (even if they aren’t top 4 this week)

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Every Saturday night, Andy Staples and Ari Wasserman react to the weekend’s slate of games on The Andy Staples Show & Friends. On Mondays, Andy revisits his and Ari’s biggest takeaway from Saturday night’s instant reaction. This week: Ari gave everyone homework — rank the 13 teams eligible for the College Football Playoff.

The only rankings that actually matter debut on Tuesday. And even these don’t truly matter. Remember, the first time the College Football Playoff selection committee released a ranking in 2014, these were the top four:

  1. Mississippi State
  2. Florida State
  3. Auburn
  4. Ole Miss

How many of those teams actually made the inaugural CFP? One. The Seminoles went 13-0, entered the bracket as a No. 3 seed and got crushed by Oregon in the Rose Bowl. So don’t despair if your team isn’t in the top four on Tuesday when the committee reveals its first ranking of the 2022 season.

As long as your team is one of the Lucky 13, of course.

On the postgame edition of The Andy Staples Show, Ari and I determined which teams remain eligible for the CFP. We might be wrong, but eight seasons worth of selections have established a fairly reliable pattern. The committee has yet to place a two-loss team* into the top four. You don’t have to be a conference champion to make the top four, but you’d better not have a blowout loss. (Unless you avenged said loss in the conference title game or beat the team that blew you out earlier in the season.) At the end of the show, Ari gave all of us a homework assignment: Rank these 13 teams.

*You’ll notice two-loss LSU is omitted from the Lucky 13. This is based on committee precedent. Should LSU beat Alabama and then beat Georgia or Tennessee in the SEC title game, perhaps that changes this year. A two-loss Auburn probably would have made the bracket in 2017, but the Tigers lost their rematch against Georgia in the SEC title game.

Entering this week’s games, these are the 13 teams that can still make the CFP, listed by conference.

ACC

Big 12

Big Ten

  • Illinois
  • Michigan
  • Ohio State

Pac-12

SEC

  • Alabama
  • Georgia
  • Ole Miss
  • Tennessee

That this many teams remain in the hunt means we’ve had a pretty fun season so far. Also, it doesn’t feel as if there are one or two teams that would absolutely smash everyone else still in the hunt. When the CFP expands to 12 in a few years, we’ll be able to measure the teams still in the hunt at this point by the dozen. But for now, let’s be happy the number is this high.

To complete Ari’s assignment, I tried to imagine how I’d vote as a committee member. I collected some stats I know are important to the committee. I also used some that I find important. I used the SP+ predictive ranking created by ESPN’s Bill Connelly. This is my favorite of the predictive ranking formulas, but I won’t quibble if you want to use ESPN’s Football Power Index or Jeff Sagarin’s rankings. (Bill’s formula can’t seem to accept that Texas isn’t back this year, but I’m willing to forgive that.)

I do like the FPI’s strength of schedule measurement, though. So I also used that. The FPI also has a handy measurement of remaining schedule strength, but that isn’t necessary for this exercise since we can only go by the games that have already been played. I also used the FPI’s strength of record, which measures how difficult a team’s record is to achieve based on the strength of its opponents, travel time, rest time and other factors.

One stat I love is net points per drive. This is the number of points a team’s offense averages per drive minus the average number of points that team’s defense allows on each opponent drive. Brian Fremeau keeps this stat on his excellent site. He also keeps available yards, which is another fun one. If a team gets the ball at its own 20, it has 80 yards available. If it scores a touchdown, then it gained 100 percent of available yards. I didn’t want to get too in the weeds, though. So I left that out.

Instead of using wins against Top 25 teams, which seems fairly arbitrary and also would require me to rank 25 out of 131 teams, I stole a concept from the NCAA Basketball Selection Committee. In basketball, the committee weigh Quadrant 1 (games against teams in the top 25 percent of the NET ranking) wins heavily. Football doesn’t have as many data points, so I decided to count Quadrant 1 and Quadrant 2 wins using SP+ as the ranking. Quad 1 is the teams ranked No. 1 through No. 30. Quad 2 is the teams ranked No. 31 through No. 60.

I also wanted to use some raw numbers that aren’t adjusted by any proprietary formula. So I went with tried-and-true yards per play gained and yards per play allowed. This adjusts for tempo better than total offense and total defense, and it also helps identify outliers.

Even though I know enough about these teams to make educated guesses as to their identities based on their numbers, I stripped the team names off my spreadsheet before I started sorting stats. My hope was that I would forget which team corresponded to which letter. That way, I could rank based solely on what the team had done this season and not on brand name, past success or failure or conference affiliation.

Does that make this ranking objective? Of course not. Rankings are by their nature subjective. At a certain point, I have to look at two (or three or four) data sets that seem quite similar and decide which one to place above the other(s).

Here’s my spreadsheet. Feel free to rank the teams as you see fit…

 

The actual committee chooses a bucket of about six teams in order to select its top three. It then scrubs through the list three at a time until it reaches 25. The six that seemed to belong at the top here were teams E, F, K, J, M and L.

So I moved them into a different spreadsheet and tried to parse them. Team J leads everyone with four Quad 1 wins but has a loss. Team M has three Quad 1 and two Quad 2 wins and the No. 1 strength of record. But Team M is one of only two on this list with a yards per play number above No. 15 in the nation. Its defense is No. 39 in yards per play allowed. But its offense is No. 3 in yards per play gained, and it is No. 5 in net points per drive. In other words, its defense might be giving up yards, but Team M usually is winning its games by a healthy margin.

Team K and Team F look cleaner. Neither has a loss, and both have single-digit ranks in the yards per play stats. Team K is No. 2 in net points per drive and has one Quad 1 win and three Quad 2 wins. Team F is No. 2 in strength of record and No. 1 in net points per drive. The drawback to these two? Their schedules haven’t been as difficult as Team J or Team M’s schedules.

Still, these two have been so consistent that I feel like I need to place them in the top two. So I’ll make Team F No. 1 and Team K No. 2. I’m only choosing the top three now, so I have to decide between Team J and Team M and then send the remaining team back to the pool. Team M’s No. 1 strength of record suggests that’s who I should pick, but I suspect Team M handed Team J its loss. I like using head-to-head results as a tiebreaker. (Otherwise why bother playing?)

So I peek at my key, which confirms my suspicion. Team M will be No. 3. Team J goes back in the pool.

My top three look like this:

  1. Ohio State (Team F)
  2. Georgia (Team K)
  3. Tennessee (Team M)

Now let’s move on. You’ve probably guessed by now that Team J is Alabama, but let’s try to ignore that knowledge and compare it with the next group.

We take the three remaining teams from the first group (J, E, L) and add three more teams (H, C, G).

The two that jump off the page are Team J and Team E. We’re trying very hard not to make any assumptions because we know who J is. What happened from 2009-21 is not important here. E has a similar strength of record, two Quad 1 and two Quad 2 wins and a better net points per drive rank. It seems the defense has been stingier but the offense isn’t quite as explosive. The biggest difference is strength of schedule. Team J’s strength of schedule is 10th out of 131. Team E’s is 79th, the lowest in this grouping of six. So let’s give the nod to Team J. Then Team E.

I’ve ranked:

4. Alabama (Team J)

5. Michigan (Team E)

Now let’s choose No. 6 from the remaining four on our list (H, C, G, L). All of these teams have more flaws than the others, and those flaws seem to show up on defense. Team G has a loss but only one Quad 1 or Quad 2 win. So that team goes back in the pool. Team C’s strength of record is No. 3, meaning it has achieved something difficult relative to its schedule. Team L has the best net points per drive rank and has two Quad 1 wins and one Quad 2 win.

I think I’m going with Team C. After peeking at my key, I see I’ve ranked:

6. TCU (Team C)

I’ll spare you most the gory details, but I ranked the next 13 the same way:

7. Ole Miss (Team L)

8. Clemson (Team A)

9. Oregon (Team G)

10. UCLA (Team H)

11. Illinois (Team D)

12. USC (Team I)

13. North Carolina (Team B)

The biggest surprise? Ole Miss at No. 7. If I had the team names next to the stats, I probably would have placed Ole Miss around No. 10. After watching the Rebels against Auburn, LSU and Ole Miss, I have no faith in their defense to hold up enough to allow them to beat Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi State and the SEC East champion. But their defensive stats are not as bad as I thought, and Clemson’s were not as good as I thought. Plus, Ole Miss has an elite offense and Clemson has a pedestrian one.

That said, I think it’s much more likely that Clemson goes undefeated and makes the CFP than Ole Miss goes 12-1 and makes the bracket. But after looking at these numbers, I have less faith in the Tigers to beat Notre Dame, Louisville, Miami, South Carolina and the Coastal Division champion (probably North Carolina) in consecutive weeks than I did before. Taken individually, Clemson should beat each of those teams. But it feels as if the Tigers aren’t playing with the same margin for error they had when they were making the CFP every year. Another game as sloppy as their Syracuse matchup could result in a loss.

But that’s why they play the games. Clemson could prove me wrong and wind up in the field.

The bigger question: Will this be a Lucky 13 next week? The Tennessee-Georgia loser probably stays on the list. But can everyone else?

(Photo: Eakin Howard / Getty Images)



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College football picks against the spread: Bruce Feldman’s Week 9 picks

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I went 5-6 last week against the spread, dropping me to three games under .500 against the line for the season. The good: nailing my upset special with Liberty handling BYU. The bad: picking Toledo to beat Buffalo by double digits. The ugly: picking Iowa to keep it sort of close against Ohio State.

(All point spreads come from BetMGM, click here for live odds, all kickoff times Eastern.)

Notre Dame at No. 16 Syracuse (-2.5), Noon, ABC

The Orange offense has sputtered for most of the past month, going over 400 yards only once, against FCS Wagner. The defense, though, has been outstanding, and should be able to handle a very inconsistent Notre Dame attack.

Syracuse 23, Notre Dame 17
Pick: Syracuse 2.5

No. 2 Ohio State (-15.5) at No. 13 Penn State, Noon, Fox

This is the first big test for the Buckeyes, who have a ton of firepower. I think the Nittany Lions respond after getting embarrassed in the trenches on both sides of the ball at Michigan, but ultimately Ohio State’s edge at quarterback will be the difference in the second half.

Ohio State 38, Penn State 27
Pick: Penn State +15.5

No. 7 TCU (-7.5) at West Virginia, Noon, ESPN

The Mountaineers defense, especially against the pass, has been savaged this month. Now it faces a faster team than it’s seen before and with a hotter quarterback. Uh-oh.

TCU 40, West Virginia 24
Pick: TCU -7.5

No. 20 Cincinnati at UCF (-1), 3:30 p.m., ESPN

Both defenses are really good, but the Bearcats’ is better and has been more consistent.

Cincinnati 28, UCF 24
Pick: Cincinnati +1

No. 1 Georgia (-22.5) vs. Florida, 3:30 p.m., CBS

It feels like it’s time for the Bulldogs to flex their muscle again. I think Kirby Smart will have them primed to slow down dual-threat quarterback Anthony Richardson and a Gators run game that has come alive since losing at Tennessee last month.

Georgia 42, Florida 21
Pick: Florida +22.5

No. 9 Oklahoma State at No. 22 Kansas State (-1.5), 3:30 p.m., Fox

Mike Gundy’s team gives up a ton of yards but the offense has been so good, it’s been able to overcome the defensive woes. I think it will again.

Oklahoma State 35, Kansas State 31
Pick: Oklahoma State +1.5

No. 19 Kentucky at No. 3 Tennessee (-12.5), 7 p.m., ESPN

I like Will Levis’ playmaking ability and Chris Rodriguez has really heated up since returning, but I just can’t pick against the Vols at home right now.

Tennessee 44, Kentucky 31
Pick: Tennessee -12.5

Even when Michigan has won in this heated rivalry in recent years, MSU has managed to keep it relatively tight and prevent the Wolverines from covering. But my sense is this Michigan team is different from ones in the past and will keep its foot on the gas.

Michigan 45, Michigan State 17
Pick: Michigan -22.5

No. 15 Ole Miss (-2.5) at Texas A&M, 7:30 p.m., SEC Network

Lane Kiffin will face his old defensive coordinator DJ Durkin and the Aggies should have some answers, but I don’t see them being able to wake up what has been a dreadful offense against the SEC’s top pass rush.

Ole Miss 28, Texas A&M 20
Pick: Ole Miss -2.5

Pitt at No. 21 North Carolina (-3), 8 p.m., ACC Network

The Tar Heels return home after two road trips to face a Pitt team that lost by two touchdowns at Louisville. Go with UNC. Drake Maye has a 13-0 TD-INT ratio in games at Chapel Hill.

UNC 31, Pitt 20
Pick: North Carolina -3

Upset special: Illinois (-7.5) at Nebraska, 3:30 p.m., ABC

The Huskers have played really hard for Mickey Joseph and I think they’re overdue for a big upset win, although I almost talked myself out of this one considering that Nebraska’s defense was on the field for 101 plays last week and the Illini’s was only out there for 42.

Nebraska 17, Illinois 16
Pick: Nebraska +7.5

(Top photo: Dale Zanine / USA Today)



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Mandel’s Final Thoughts: Could Tide be vulnerable vs. Vols? Plus Sooner madness, L.A. greatness

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And now, 23 Final Thoughts from a Saturday that began at 11 a.m. Dallas time in front of 90,000 at the Cotton Bowl and ended at 11:30 p.m. Palo Alto time in front of a few thousand half-awake fans at Stanford Stadium who unwittingly (and unfortunately for them) saw the most incredible ending of the whole darn day.

1. CBS has apparently hired a psychic to run its programming department. Two years in a row, they’ve used their one prime-time pick of the season to air an Alabama-Texas A&M matchup. Both years, the Tide were massive favorites. Both years, it came down to the final play. The Aggies won on a walk-off field goal in 2021. The Tide survived on an A&M incompletion in 2022.

And now, those CBS suits are about to be big winners again. Next week, they get the biggest Alabama-Tennessee game since Nick Saban was still coaching the Dolphins.

2. Fans under the age of around 25 might not even realize that the Tide and Vols are traditional rivals, mainly because Saban’s program has won the past 15 meetings and generally fought in a different weight class than the long-dormant Vols. But lo and behold, these two will meet in Knoxville next week both with undefeated records and top-8 rankings, and for once, Alabama may be the more vulnerable team.

Especially if Heisman winner Bryce Young can’t play.

3. Alabama’s 24-20 escape against ostensibly overmatched A&M (3-3, 1-2 SEC) was a weird, weird game.



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Replacing Karl Dorrell at Colorado: Candidates range from a current SEC coach to an NFL OC

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Paul Chryst’s ouster from Wisconsin Sunday was a surprise. But Karl Dorrell? Not at all.

Colorado is 0-5 and 4-13 in the past two seasons. The roster is dreadful by Power 5 standards. This is going to be a really tough job. It doesn’t have a great recruiting base, and it’s got a pretty shaky positioning regarding conference stability. Colorado also hasn’t had back-to-back winning seasons in almost 20 years, dating back to 2004-05. There’s been just one Top 25 season in the past 20 years, a No. 17 finish in 2016 under Mike MacIntyre.

How can Colorado fix this? Who wants to try? The latter is just as important a question.

We think Colorado will try and keep the search focused on candidates with head coaching experience, but there are a couple of men without that experience we think the Buffaloes may consider.

Candidates with head coaching experience

Bronco Mendenhall: Former BYU and Virginia coach Bronco Mendenhall is available. He’s a defensive-minded coach who had a solid run at Virginia after going 99-43 at BYU. He knows this region well and would feel like a pretty safe hire. Would he fire up the fan base? Probably not, but could he develop the Buffaloes into a bowl team? Probably.

Kalani Sitake: The guy who followed Mendenhall at BYU, Sitake would also make some sense. His teams are always very physical and play hard.



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Ranking every college football team after Week 3: Washington is back on the rise

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What a difference a year makes in Seattle.

A year ago at this time, Washington was 1-2 with losses to FCS Montana and Michigan in which the Huskies scored 17 combined points. On Saturday, the Huskies scored 39 points in a dominant win against a Michigan State team that was ranked No. 11 in the AP poll. And the game wasn’t nearly as close as the 39-28 final score. Washington had 503 total yards and averaged 9.9 yards per pass. With the win to move to 3-0, the Huskies have moved into the top 25 in this week’s edition of The Athletic 131.

Washington’s fall off a cliff under former head coach Jimmy Lake en route to a 4-8 record last season was stunning because it happened so quickly. This was a program that won 32 games from 2016 to 2018 under Chris Petersen. Recruiting had gone relatively well, and it’s one of the best-resourced programs in the West. But the offense had become anemic.

Enter Kalen DeBoer and Michael Penix Jr. DeBoer has won basically everywhere he’s been. He’s 82-9 as a head coach, including a 67-3 stretch at NAIA Sioux Falls from 2005 to 2009. He helped turn around Indiana and Fresno State as the offensive coordinator, then went back to Fresno State and produced a 9-3 record in his second season as head coach.

Penix was electric as Indiana’s quarterback when healthy, but he dealt with several injuries. He’s reunited with DeBoer in Seattle, and Washington football is fun again. Through three games, he’s completing 66 percent of his passes for 359.7 yards per game with 10 touchdowns and one interception.

Everyone wrote off the Pac-12 after Week 1, but we may need to reevaluate that. Washington is the biggest reason why.

Here is the latest edition of The Athletic 131.

The only change in this group is USC’s move up to No. 8 after a 45-17 win against Fresno State. The Trojans look like the best-case scenario under Lincoln Riley right now. The offense is electric. The defense has shown holes (81st in yards per play), but it’s fourth in the nation with 10 takeaways. The trip to Oregon State this week will be an interesting test.

Michigan is a dominant 3-0 but has played three of the worst teams in the country. A home game against Maryland this week will be the first time we can actually begin to evaluate the Wolverines.

The polls have come around to put Georgia at No. 1, and its Week 1 win against Oregon looks even better now after the Ducks’ dominant win against BYU.

11-25

Rank Team Record Prev

11

3-0

13

12

3-0

25

13

2-1

21

14

3-0

20

15

2-1

15

16

2-1

16

17

2-1

18

18

2-1

11

19

2-1

19

20

3-0

49

21

3-0

22

22

2-1

26

23

2-1

24

24

3-0

27

25

3-0

29

Penn State’s 41-12 win at Auburn has quickly changed the view on what is possible for this team. Auburn may not be a good team, but the Nittany Lions were able to run for 245 yards against a good front. The aforementioned 41-20 Oregon win at BYU suddenly makes the Pac-12 look much better now to go with USC, Washington and Utah, which beat San Diego State 35-7.

Texas, Wake Forest and Ole Miss also move into the top 25. The Longhorns avoided an Alabama hangover and pulled away from UTSA in the second half, Wake Forest held off Liberty and Ole Miss pounded Georgia Tech 42-0.

The polls have Utah ahead of Florida and Baylor ahead of BYU, and the coaches poll has Michigan State ahead of Washington. Why? I have no idea. In these rankings, when two teams are close, the head-to-head winner gets the advantage, especially three weeks into the season.

I saw a lot of comments about Minnesota’s ranking last week. It’s barely moved in the rankings because it’s played two of the worst teams in the country and an FCS team. It’s the same reasoning with Michigan and with Ole Miss. It’s not a negative and not a positive. Sometimes you get jumped if someone else has a more impressive win. Minnesota was No. 39 in my preseason ranking and still sits there now. Beat Michigan State, and it’ll most likely be in the top 25.

North Carolina’s win against Appalachian State continues to look better, and the Mountaineers’ Hail Mary win against Troy coupled with Texas A&M’s win against Miami was a boost as well. Maryland’s 34-27 win against SMU was a solid performance.

Kansas and Syracuse! KU is in the top 35 after a 3-0 start with road wins against West Virginia and Houston. Syracuse is 3-0 with wins against Louisville and Purdue. It’s not hard to see a 5-0 Orange start going into the NC State game. Tulane makes the biggest jump this week, from No. 110 into the top 50 after a win against Kansas State to move to 3-0. Notre Dame’s close escape from Cal coupled with Marshall’s loss to Bowling Green drops both teams. Arizona’s 31-28 win against North Dakota State was impressive as an underdog, and the Wildcats are officially a pretty good team.

Several teams slipped into this group with losses — Purdue, Texas Tech, Houston, UTSA and Auburn — but there’s not much movement otherwise. Indiana barely escaped Western Kentucky and Rutgers barely escaped Temple, but both are 3-0. Wyoming’s 17-14 win against Air Force moved the Cowboys to 3-1, with the loss to Illinois.

Vanderbilt’s comeback win at Northern Illinois to move to 3-1 is a real sign of progress for the program. Rice’s 33-21 win against Louisiana was one of the most surprising results of the weekend. Eastern Michigan won at Arizona State, becoming the first MAC school to win a regular-season game against the Pac-12. Northwestern has followed up its Ireland win against Nebraska with losses to Duke and FCS Southern Illinois at home.

South Alabama let a win at UCLA slip away with a field goal as time expired, and Troy let App State win on a Hail Mary. Tough losses. San Diego State is now 1-2 with two blowout losses to Pac-12 teams. Very quickly, this doesn’t look like the Aztecs of old.

(Top photo of Michael Penix and Kalen DeBoer: Joe Nicholson / USA Today)



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ESPN out of Big Ten negotiations as Fox, CBS, NBC near deals: Sources

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The Big Ten is in the process of finalizing its media rights deals, with sources telling The Athletic the league hopes to make an official announcement by early next week. In a stunning development, ESPN has pulled out of negotiations, sources with direct knowledge of the negotiations confirmed to The Athletic.

In addition to Fox, which had locked up Big Ten rights months ago, the conference is likely to partner with both CBS and NBC. Such deals, if finalized, could result in the following Saturday slate: a noon ET game on Fox, a 3:30 p.m. ET game on CBS and prime time on NBC. Multiple sources involved in the negotiations have reiterated over the past month that the Big Ten has prioritized those windows throughout the process.

ESPN officially pulled out of Big Ten negotiations after saying no to the conference’s final offer of a seven-year deal worth $380 million per year, a source told The Athletic on Tuesday. Sports Business Journal first reported the developments.

ESPN’s rejection of the Big Ten’s offer was for only 13 of the Big Ten’s “B”/“C” package of games; ESPN had also looked at a prime-time package. Fox has already landed the league’s “A” package of games, which it will carry in the noon window.

ESPN’s exclusive 10-year deal with the SEC, starting in 2024-25, is believed to be in the $300 million range. That deal includes both 3:30 pm ET and prime-time windows for the conference’s premier games, which differs from what the network was in play for with the Big Ten. Clearly, the worldwide leader did not value the Big Ten’s secondary package at a higher price for fewer years than its SEC deal, especially with the network already obligated to the ACC as well.

The news is undoubtedly historic. ESPN has carried Big Ten football and basketball games for the last 40 years.

 

The Big Ten is also likely to add some sort of streaming option, a source told The Athletic, though it is not yet clear how it will be structured and whether or not Amazon or Apple will be involved. Both companies have significantly increased their investment in live sports programming in the past year. Another streaming candidate under consideration is Peacock, which is already part of NBC’s offerings, a different source said. That would make sense if NBC lands a Big Ten package as it is now expected to do so.

CBS is expected to pay the Big Ten $350 million per year in its new deal, a source confirmed to The Athletic. NBC is also expected to pay around $350 million per year, according to multiple reports. Multiple outlets have reported that the Big Ten is seeking to eclipse $1 billion in rights fees per year in its new deal.

The Big Ten said in a statement Tuesday the “overall constructs of the new rights agreements have not been finalized.”

GO DEEPER

What we know about Big Ten rights negotiations

“The conference continues to have productive meetings with both linear and direct-to-consumer media partners,” the Big Ten said. “We are committed to delivering unparalleled resources and exposure opportunities for Big Ten Conference member institutions, athletic programs, student-athletes, coaches and fans. We are very thankful to the media companies who recognize the value of Big Ten programming and want to deliver it to our fans around the world in a forward-thinking manner.”

With ESPN no longer in the mix to broadcast Big Ten football, expect the network to get involved in either or both of the Pac-12 and Big 12 conferences, whose rights come up next. The Pac-12 already opened its exclusive negotiating window with ESPN early in the aftermath of USC and UCLA’s move to the Big Ten.

—  Richard Deitsch and Matt Fortuna contributed reporting.

(Photo: Matthew O’Haren / USA Today)



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Duke Blue Devils men, UConn Huskies women to compete in Jimmy V Classic college basketball events

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The matchups for the 2022 men’s and women’s Jimmy V Classic college basketball events were announced Thursday, highlighted by Duke on the men’s side and a pair of potential top-10 matchups on the women’s side.

The men’s doubleheader will take place Dec. 6 at Madison Square Garden, with Duke facing Iowa and Texas playing Illinois. The women’s games will be hosted on campus sites Dec. 4: UConn at Notre Dame and Virginia Tech at Tennessee.

The coming season marks the first time since 1980 that Duke will be coached by someone other than Mike Krzyzewski, with Jon Scheyer taking over that role. The Blue Devils bring in the nation’s No. 1-ranked recruiting class and are ranked No. 5 in ESPN’s latest Way-Too-Early Top 25.

The Longhorns and the Fighting Illini also are ranked in the Way-Too-Early Top 25. Chris Beard and Texas bring back three starters from last season’s 22-win team, while also welcoming two five-star freshmen and elite transfer Tyrese Hunter from Iowa State. Illinois lost All-American Kofi Cockburn, but it landed impact transfers Terrence Shannon Jr. (Texas Tech) and Matthew Mayer (Baylor), as well as top-25 recruit Skyy Clark.

Both men’s games will air on ESPN.

On the women’s side, all four teams are ranked in the top 11 of ESPN’s most recent Way-Too-Early Top 25.

UConn is coming off a national championship game appearance and returns stars Paige Bueckers and Azzi Fudd, while Notre Dame brings back most of its contributors and hit the portal for Texas transfer Lauren Ebo.

Virginia Tech should compete for an ACC championship with the return of conference Player of the Year Elizabeth Kitley, and Tennessee loaded up in the transfer portal and is receiving preseason top-five hype.

UConn’s trip to Notre Dame will be broadcast on ABC, and Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee will air on ESPN2.

Named for legendary coach Jim Valvano, the Jimmy V Classic raises money and awareness for the V Foundation for Cancer Research. To date, ESPN has helped raise more than $155 million for the V Foundation. Last year set a record, with 2021’s V Week raising $13.35 million.

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Kofi Cockburn to enter NBA draft after three seasons with Illinois Fighting Illini

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Illinois junior Kofi Cockburn will enter the 2022 NBA draft and forgo his remaining college eligibility.

“I’m closing one of the most amazing chapters of my life,” Cockburn told ESPN on Wednesday. “I’m proud of what we accomplished in college, but I am not sure it can get much better than that. It’s a scary challenge now and I’m excited to rise to the occasion and try and prove people wrong.

“Thinking back to where I was three years ago when I entered college — people would be amazed to see the progress I made in becoming a two-time All-American. I’m planning on doing the same exact thing in my professional career: pushing my game to new heights.”

Cockburn already entered the NBA draft twice in 2020 and 2021 and cannot withdraw his name from consideration for a third time, according to league rules, making him ineligible to return to college basketball.

“I’m 100% in now,” Cockburn said. “I’m not going back to college. I’m signing with agent Todd Ramasar. I’ve tested the waters enough, I’m 100% dedicated to going all the way.”

Cockburn, a consensus first-team All-American, was the only player in college basketball to average over 20 points and 10 rebounds per game this past season. He led Illinois to a 23-10 record and a Big Ten championship, which the Fighting Illini shared with Wisconsin. It was the first time Illinois won a regular-season title since 2005.

“If you watched us play, we had a lot of ups and downs,” Cockburn said. “A lot of injuries, COVID, players coming in and out — it was tough. We had to adjust. People are going to be wondering years from now what it was like to play college basketball during a pandemic.

“It was hard to be an All-American two years in a row. We proved to be winners regardless. We had the most wins in the last three years in the Big Ten of any team. People will remember that forever. NBA teams know I’m a winner now. I love to have fun, but I’m a competitor. It wasn’t about my individual goals. Winning was always the priority. That speaks for itself.”

A 7-foot-1 big man born in Kingston, Jamaica, Cockburn was named first-team All-Big Ten for the second straight season. He was a finalist for several player of the year awards, including the Wooden and Naismith as well as the Kareem Abdul-Jabbar Award, presented to the nation’s best center.

“My dream is to be one of the best players in the NBA, especially from Jamaica,” Cockburn said. “I’m playing for something bigger than myself. This is for my country, my people.”

Cockburn, the No. 89 prospect in the ESPN 100, established himself as one of the most physically imposing players in the college game the past three years, with his 7-foot-4 wingspan, 9-foot-3 standing reach and 285-pound frame. His 341 points scored with his back to the basket ranked second in college basketball, according to Synergy Sports Technology.

“I know I’ll have to be a different play in the NBA than I was in college,” he said. “I’m excited about the opportunity. It won’t be about being a low-post scorer against double teams. I’m actually excited about not seeing double teams anymore. From now on it’s about my dedication to being the most fit athlete possible. I look around the league and I’m inspired by the level of physicality and conditioning. That’s where I need to get. There’s no fat on my body, but I can lean out and get faster, quicker, more athletic.

“The NBA values players like Steven Adams and Jonas Valanciunas — guys who set great screens, who know the pick and roll game, how to slip and seal, how to be a physical defender and rebounder who blocks shots. My size can be a major advantage in the NBA. I don’t need the ball to be happy.”

With Cockburn off to the pro ranks, Illinois will need to replace possibly five of its top seven scorers, with Alfonso Plummer, Trent Frazier and Da’Monte Williams all out of eligibility after five years in college. Sophomore Andre Curbelo elected to transfer to St. John’s, while senior Jacob Grandison is currently undecided about returning for his fifth season of eligibility.

Illinois is bringing in a strong recruiting class with three top-100 prospects in Skyy Clark, Ty Rodgers and Jayden Epps, and is expected to be aggressive pursuing veterans in the transfer portal, especially in the frontcourt. Sophomore power forward Coleman Hawkins looks poised for a breakout season, and freshman small forward RJ Melendez was highly regarded coming into college.

The NBA draft combine will be May 16-22 in Chicago, and the draft will be June 23 in Brooklyn, New York.

Jonathan Givony is an NBA draft expert and the founder and co-owner of DraftExpress.com, a private scouting and analytics service utilized by NBA, NCAA and International teams.

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