Tag Archives: EZ

ECB hikes rates more than flagged in race to tame inflation

  • All rates rise by 50 basis points
  • Inflation to stay ‘undesirably’ high
  • ECB backs ‘anti-fragmentation’ tool called TPI
  • ECB ‘can go big’ on that, Lagarde says

FRANKFURT, July 21 (Reuters) – The European Central Bank raised interest rates by more than expected on Thursday as concerns about runaway inflation trumped worries about growth, even while the euro zone economy is suffering from the impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine.

The ECB raised its benchmark deposit rate by 50 basis points to zero percent, breaking its own guidance for a 25 basis point move as it joined global peers in jacking up borrowing costs. It was the ECB’s first rate increase in 11 years.

Policymakers also agreed to provide extra help for the 19-country currency bloc’s more indebted nations – Italy among them – with a new bond purchase scheme intended to cap the rise in their borrowing costs and so limit financial fragmentation.

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com

Register

Ending an eight-year experiment with negative interest rates, the ECB also lifted its main refinancing rate to 0.50%, and promised more hikes, possibly as soon as its Sept. 8 meeting with more to follow later.

ECB President Christine Lagarde said a clear deterioration of the inflation outlook and unanimous backing for the anti-fragmentation instrument justified the bigger move.

“Price pressure is spreading across more and more sectors,” Lagarde said. “We expect inflation to remain undesirably high for some time.” She listed driving factors including higher food and energy costs and wage rises.

“We decided on balance that it was appropriate to take a larger step towards exiting from negative interest rates.”

But even if the ECB is now moving more quickly, Lagarde said, the terminal rate – or level where hikes end – has not changed.

The ECB did not provide guidance for its expected rate hike in September, saying only that further increases will be as appropriate and decisions will be made meeting by meeting.

The ECB had for weeks guided markets to expect a 25 basis point increase on Thursday, but sources close to the discussion said 50 basis points came into play shortly before the meeting as part of a deal including help for indebted countries.

With inflation already approaching double-digit territory, it is at risk of getting entrenched well above the ECB’s 2% target, with any gas shortage over the coming winter likely to push prices even higher, perpetuating rapid price growth.

Lagarde warned that risks to the inflation outlook were on the upside and have intensified, particularly as the war is likely to drag on, keeping energy prices high for longer.

Economists polled by Reuters had predicted a 25 basis point increase but most favoured a 50 basis point hike, lifting the ECB’s record-low minus 0.5% deposit rate to zero. read more

The euro climbed as much as 0.8% to $1.0261 , having traded at $1.0198 just before the statement but turned negative on the day as Lagarde spoke. Markets now price in almost a 50 basis point rate hike in September and see a combined 124 basis points of rises over the rest of the year.

GOING BIG?

The new bond purchase scheme, called the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI), is intended to cap the rise in borrowing costs across the currency bloc as policy tightens.

“The scale of TPI purchases depends on the severity of the risks facing policy transmission,” the ECB said in a statement. “The TPI will ensure that the monetary policy stance is transmitted smoothly across all euro area countries.”

As ECB rates rise, borrowing costs increase disproportionately for countries like Italy, Spain or Portugal as investors demand a bigger premium to hold their debt.

“The ECB is capable of going big for that,” Lagarde said.

Activating the instrument will be entirely within the discretion of the ECB and the bank will target public sector bonds with maturities between one and 10 years.

Countries will be eligible if they comply with European Union fiscal rules and do not face “severe macroeconomic imbalances”. Compliance with commitments under the EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility will be needed, as will an assessment of debt sustainability.

The ECB’s commitment on Thursday comes as a political crisis in Italy is already weighing on markets following the resignation of Prime Minister Mario Draghi, who was Lagarde’s predecessor at the ECB.

The yield spread between Italian and German 10-year bonds widened to 246.5 basis points during Lagarde’s news conference, not far from the 250 basis point level that triggered an emergency ECB policy meeting last month.

The ECB’s 50 basis point hike still leaves it lagging its global peers, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve, which lifted rates by 75 basis points last month and is likely to move by a similar margin in July.

But the euro zone is more exposed to the war in Ukraine and a threatened cut off in gas supplies from Russia could tip the bloc into recession, leaving policymakers with a dilemma of balancing growth and inflation considerations.

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com

Register

Writing by Mark John; Editing by Toby Chopra, John Stonestreet and Catherine Evans

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Read original article here

EU plans for life without Russian gas amid inflation spike

  • ‘The notion of cheap energy is gone,’ Latvian PM says
  • Inflation in euro zone has shot to all-time highs
  • Germany warns some industries may have to close this winter

BRUSSELS, June 24 (Reuters) – EU leaders on Friday warned that “cheap energy is gone” and agreed to boost preparations for further cuts in Russian gas, accusing Moscow of “weaponising” energy via a supply squeeze which Germany warned could partly shut its industry.

A day after celebrations over setting Kyiv on the road to membership of the bloc, Friday’s summit in Brussels was a sober reflection on the economic impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with growing worries over soaring prices and warnings of a “tough winter”.

“Inflation is a major concern for all of us,” European Council chief Charles Michel told a news conference as the two-day summit ended.

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com

Register

“Russia’s war of aggression is pushing up the price of food, energy and commodities,” he said, adding that leaders had agreed to closely coordinate their economic policy responses.

The summit agreed few concrete steps but the leaders tasked the European Commission with finding more ways to secure “supply at affordable prices” because of “the weaponisation of gas by Russia.”

European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said the search for alternative supplies was already in progress, with U.S. LNG deliveries up 75% this year from last year, and Norway pipeline gas deliveries up 15%.

Besides, the EU executive will present a plan on preparedness for more gas cuts from Russia to leaders in July she said, adding: “Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. That’s what we are doing right now.”

The European Commission will come up with proposals and options to discuss at a next EU summit in October, including considering alternative market designs that would potentially include decoupling gas from the formation of the market price for electricity, von der Leyen said.

“We are working on different models, not only to look into how to curb the energy prices or electricity prices but also to look at the market design, with the question: is the market design we have today still fit for purpose?”, she said.

One contentious issue is whether governments should step in to cap prices.

Spain and Portugal capped gas prices in their local electricity market this month, but other states warn price caps would disrupt energy markets and drain state coffers further, if governments had to pay the difference between the capped price and the price in international gas markets.

“TOUGH WINTER”

Leaders of the 27 EU nations placed the blame for a huge spike in prices and sagging global growth on the war that began exactly four months ago.

“The notion of cheap energy is gone and the notion of Russian energy is essentially gone and we are all in the process of securing alternate sources,” Latvian Prime Minister Krisjanis Karins said, adding governments must “support those portions of society that suffer the most”.

Following unprecedented Western sanctions imposed over the invasion, a dozen European countries have so far been thumped by cuts in gas flows from Russia.

“It is only a matter of time before the Russians close down all gas shipments,” said one EU official ahead of Friday’s talks.

German Economy Minister Robert Habeck warned his country was heading for a gas shortage if Russian supplies remained as low as now, and some industries would have to close come winter.

“Companies would have to stop production, lay off their workers, supply chains would collapse, people would go into debt to pay their heating bills,” he told Der Spiegel magazine. read more

The EU relied on Russia for as much as 40% of its gas needs before the war – rising to 55% for Germany – leaving a huge gap to fill in an already tight global gas market.

Inflation in the 19 countries sharing the euro currency has shot to all-time highs above 8% and the EU’s executive expects growth to dip to 2.7% this year.

Eurogroup chief Paschal Donohoe warned that the bloc must “acknowledge the risk we could face if inflation becomes embedded in our economies”.

“If we don’t pay attention then the whole EU economy will go into a recession with all its consequences,” Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo warning of a potential “tough winter” ahead.

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com

Register

Reporting by Jan Strupczewski, Phil Blenkinsop, Marine Strauss, Bart Meijer, Francesco Guarascio, Kate Abnett, Charlotte Van Campenhout, Benoit Van Overstraeten, Gabriela Baczynska; writing by Ingrid Melander and Jan Strupczewski; editing by John Chalmers, Alex Richardson and Nick Macfie

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Read original article here

Dollar stands tall as traders brace for Fed to go large

  • Markets price >90% chance of 75bp Fed hike this week
  • Dollar index hits 20-year peak above 105
  • Yen wallows as BOJ piles in to bond market

SINGAPORE, June 14 (Reuters) – The U.S. dollar stood just below a 20-year peak on Tuesday and just about everything else nursed losses as investors braced for aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes and a possible recession.

Markets have scrambled to bet on rapid-fire hikes in the wake of an unexpectedly hot inflation reading on Friday. Consecutive 75 basis point rate rises in June and July are close to fully priced, sending shockwaves across asset classes.

The dollar has gained with yields and as investors seek shelter from the storm. The dollar index scaled a two-decade peak of 105.29 on Monday and held near that level in Asia.

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com

Register

It has hit one-month highs on the euro, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Swiss franc and Canadian dollar and it made a fresh one-month top of $1.0397 per euro on Tuesday, before retreating slightly to $1.0438.

Sterling scraped from a two-year low to $1.2180, but is weighed down as the Fed is seen outpacing the Bank of England, which is expected to deliver a 25 bp hike on Thursday.

Even the Norwegian crown , which has been supported by firm oil prices and a central bank that began hiking last year, touched a two-year low of 9.9295 per dollar in Asia.

“The dollar seems to be the stagflation hedge of choice,” said Bank of Singapore strategist Moh Siong Sim.

“The market is starting to turn a lot more fearful,” he said. “On the inflation front, things do not look good and the Fed needs to respond.”

The Aussie was the best performer throughout the Asia session, attempting a bounce with S&P 500 futures . It was last up 0.5% to $0.6962, though that is still close to May’s trough at $0.6829 and analysts remained cautious.

Nerves about official intervention also gave brief respite to the yen, but it was soon on the back foot after the Bank of Japan expanded a round of bond purchases, knocking the 10-year government bond yield back to its 0.25% cap.

It last traded at 134.55 per dollar after hitting a 24-year low of 135.22 on Monday.

“Given Wednesday may see the Fed go 75bps and flag more, while the BOJ on Friday will only flag more bond buying, JPY is not going to stay at these levels for long. It’s going to get much, much worse,” said Rabobank strategist Michael Every.

FED WATCH

The Fed concludes a two-day meeting on Wednesday and CME’s FedWatch tool shows markets priced for a 96% chance of a 75 basis point hike, which would be the biggest since 1994. read more

Goldman Sachs tips 75 basis point moves at both the June and July meetings and rates at 3.25-3.5% by year end. read more

Futures show expectations of nearly 200 bps of tightening by September and the two-year Treasury yield is up about 50 basis points since Thursday’s close at 3.3091% .

The 10-year yield similar, at 3.3085%, in a signal that investors fear the rapid tightening path will hurt growth and possibly bring on a recession.

“The policy challenge is that the Fed has no idea how much monetary tightening is needed and will only find out it has done too much, long after the event,” said Societe Generale strategist Kit Juckes.

Dollar gains have punished emerging market currencies, and the flight from risky investments has battered cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin is down 30% in June and came close to dropping below $20,000 in Asia before steadying around $22,000, while ether also tested resistance around $1,000.

India’s rupee hit a record low on Monday.

South Korea’s won touched its lowest level since March 2020 on Tuesday at 1,292.5 per dollar, though it was kept from further losses by official hints at intervention and dealers’ suspicion that authorities were selling dollars.

The Malaysian ringgit , Thai baht and Indonesian rupiah made multi-year lows.

========================================================

Currency bid prices at 0640 GMT

All spots

Tokyo spots

Europe spots

Volatilities

Tokyo Forex market info from BOJ

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com

Register

Reporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Shri Navaratnam, Richard Pullin and Sam Holmes

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Read original article here

Dollar higher as risky assets tumble; yen rebounds from 1998 lows

  • Dollar index up 0.4%; all eyes on Wednesday’s Fed decision
  • Bitcoin down 20%

NEW YORK, June 13 (Reuters) – The safe-haven dollar rose to a fresh four-week high against a basket of currencies on Monday, supported by fears of a global economic slowdown and bets on steep interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Global financial markets continued to smart from Friday’s hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data that led to a broad-based drop in risk sentiment and fuelled bets on even more aggressive policy tightening. read more

On Monday, government bonds sold off and stock markets around the globe took a beating. read more

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com

Register

“The USD extended its gains from Friday as risk continues to unwind across the board,” said Brad Bechtel, global head of FX at Jefferies said in a note.

The U.S. Dollar Currency Index , which tracks the greenback against six other major currencies, was up 0.4% at 104.83, within sight of the 2-decade high of 105.01 touched in mid May.

Traders have a lot on their plate this week, including policy meetings by the Fed, the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise its key interest rate by 50 basis points on Wednesday, with some, including Barclays and Jefferies, expecting to the Fed to raise rates by 75 basis points.

“A 75 bps (basis points) move is definitely going to be a surprise for some who are holding a hard line on 50 bps,” Bechtel said, adding he expects the dollar index to move higher on such a move.

The battered Japanese yen, floundering near lows against the greenback, not seen since 1998, was one major currency that advanced against the dollar on Monday.

The yen found some support from comments by Japan’s top government spokesperson on Monday that Tokyo is concerned about the currency’s sharp fall and stands ready to “respond appropriately” if needed. read more

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has so far resisted pressure to tighten policy, weakening the country’s currency.

On Monday, the dollar was 0.6% lower at 133.58 yen.

The Australian dollar , seen as a liquid proxy for risk appetite, fell 1.3% and the New Zealand dollar fell 1.4%.

Sterling fell to a one month low against the dollar on Monday, coming under selling pressure after data showed Britain’s economy had unexpectedly shrunk in April. Tensions with the European Union over post-Brexit trade with Northern Ireland also weighed on the pound, which was down 1.1% to $1.2175.

Bitcoin slumped 19.1% on Monday after major U.S. cryptocurrency lending company Celsius Network froze withdrawals and transfers citing “extreme” conditions, in the latest sign of how financial market turbulence is causing distress in the cryptosphere. read more

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com

Register

Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; Editing by William Maclean

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Read original article here

EU makes eleventh-hour push to agree on Russia oil sanctions

European Union flags flutter outside the EU Commission headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, January 18, 2018. REUTERS/Francois Lenoir/File Photo

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com

Register

BRUSSELS, May 30 (Reuters) – Top European Union diplomats meet on Monday for a last-ditch attempt to agree on Russian oil import sanctions before their leaders meet later in the day, seeking to avoid a spectacle of disunity over the bloc’s response to the war in Ukraine.

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell sounded a hopeful note ahead of the two-day summit in Brussels, where leaders of the 27 countries will have few concrete results if the impasse over an oil embargo holds up a wider package of sanctions on the table.

“I think that this afternoon, we will be able to offer to the heads of the member states an agreement,” Borrell told broadcaster France Info.

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com

Register

Ambassadors failed on Sunday to agree on a proposal that would ban Russian oil delivered to EU countries by sea by the end of this year, but exempt oil delivered by a pipeline that supplies landlocked Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic.

The EU leaders will declare continued support for Ukraine to help it fend off Russia’s assault and they will discuss how to deal with the impact of the conflict, especially the spike in energy prices and an impending food supply crisis.

However, the talks will be overshadowed by their month-long struggle to agree on a sixth round of sanctions against Moscow.

“After Russia’s attack on Ukraine, we saw what can happen when Europe stands united,” German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said on Sunday. “With a view to the summit tomorrow, let’s hope it continues like this. But it is already starting to crumble and crumble again.” read more

Other elements of the latest package of sanctions include cutting Russia’s biggest bank, Sberbank (SBMX.MM), from the SWIFT messaging system, banning Russian broadcasters from the EU and adding more people to a list whose assets are frozen.

The most tangible outcome of the summit will be agreement on a package of EU loans worth 9 billion euro ($9.7 billion), with a small grants component to cover part of the interest, for Ukraine to keep its government going and pay wages for about two months.

A decision on how to raise the money will be made later.

According to a draft of the summit conclusions seen by Reuters, leaders will also back the creation of an international fund to rebuild Ukraine after the war, with details to be decided later, and will touch on the legally fraught question of confiscating frozen Russian assets for that purpose.

The leaders will pledge to accelerate work to help Ukraine move its grain out of the country to global buyers via rail and truck as the Russian navy is blocking the usual sea routes and to take steps to faster become independent of Russian energy.

The draft showed leaders would explore ways to curb rising energy prices, including the feasibility of introducing temporary price caps, to cut red tape on rolling out renewable sources of energy and invest in connecting national energy networks across borders to better help each other.

($1 = 0.9296 euros)

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com

Register

Editing by Edmund Blair

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Read original article here

EU may offer Hungary, Slovakia exemptions from Russian oil embargo

The European Union flags flutter ahead of the gas talks between the EU, Russia and Ukraine at the EU Commission headquarters in Brussels, Belgium September 19, 2019. REUTERS/Yves Herman/File Photo

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com

Register

BRUSSELS, May 2 (Reuters) – The European Commission may spare Hungary and Slovakia from an embargo on buying Russian oil, now under preparation, wary of the two countries’ dependence on Russian crude, two EU officials said on Monday.

The Commission is expected to finalise on Tuesday work on the next, and sixth package of EU sanctions against Russia over its actions in Ukraine, which would include a ban on buying Russian oil. Exports of oil are a major source of Moscow’s revenue.

Hungary, heavily dependent on Russian oil, has repeatedly said it would not sign up to sanctions involving energy. Slovakia is also among the EU countries most reliant on Russian fossil fuels.

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com

Register

To keep the 27-nation bloc united, the Commission might offer Slovakia and Hungary “an exemption or a long transition period”, one of the officials said.

Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, thanked Slovakia for its support of Kyiv, in what seems a sign of understanding of Slovakia’s position.

“Ukraine will always remember what our Slovak friends did for us. Warm welcome for Ukrainians fleeing the war, humanitarian aid, arms supplies, support for granting Ukraine EU candidate status and allowing tariff-free exports to the EU,” Kuleba wrote on Twitter. “We are lucky to have Slovakia as a neighbor.”

The oil embargo is likely to be phased in anyway, most likely taking full effect from the start of next year, officials said.

Europe is the destination for nearly half of Russia’s crude and petroleum product exports – providing Moscow with a huge source of revenue that countries including Latvia and Poland say must be cut, to stop funding its military action in Ukraine.

EU countries have paid Russia nearly 20 billion euros since Feb. 24, when it invaded Ukraine in what Moscow calls a “special military operation”, according to research organisation the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

Overall, the EU is dependent on Russia for 26% of its oil imports.

Slovakia and Hungary, both on the southern route of the Druzhba pipeline bringing Russian oil to Europe, are especially dependent, receiving respectively 96% and 58% of their crude oil and oil products imports from Russia last year, according to the International Energy Agency.

Germany, the top buyer of Russian oil in the EU, has in recent days said it could manage an oil embargo, having initially resisted for fear of the economic cost.

At 555,000 barrels per day, Germany imported 35% of its crude oil from Russia in 2021, but has in recent weeks reduced that to 12%, the German economy ministry said in an update on energy security on Sunday.

“An oil embargo with a sufficient transitional period would now be manageable in Germany, subject to rising prices,” it said.

The EU sanctions package is to be presented to ambassadors of EU governments on Wednesday.

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com

Register

Reporting by Jan Strupczewski, Kate Abnett; Editing by Louise Heavens, Kirsten Donovan and Leslie Adler

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Read original article here

Greece impounds Russian tanker as part of EU sanctions against Moscow

ATHENS, April 19 (Reuters) – Greece has impounded a Russian oil tanker off the island of Evia, the Greek coastguard said on Tuesday, as part of European Union sanctions imposed on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine.

Earlier this month, the EU banned Russian-flagged vessels from the 27-nation bloc’s ports, with some exemptions, as it adopted new sweeping sanctions against Russia for what the Kremlin describes as a “special military operation”.

The 115,500-deadweight tonnage Russian-flagged Pegas, with 19 Russian crew members on board, was seized near Karystos on the southern coast of Evia, which lies just off the Greek mainland near Athens.

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com

Register

The Russian embassy in Athens, the Greek capital, said on Twitter that it was looking into the case and was in contact with Greek authorities on the issue.

“It has been seized as part of EU sanctions,” a Greek shipping ministry official said.

A coastguard official said the ship’s oil cargo had not been confiscated. It was not clear who the charterer of the cargo was, but the vessel was managed by Russia-based Transmorflot.

Transmorflot was not immediately available for comment.

The Pegas, which was renamed Lana in March, had earlier reported an engine problem. It was headed to the southern Peloponnese peninsula to offload its cargo onto another tanker but rough seas forced it to moor just off Karystos where it was seized, Athens News Agency reported.

On Tuesday afternoon the ship was still moored at Karystos bay, Reuters witnesses said.

U.S. advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), which monitors Iran-related tanker traffic through ship and satellite tracking, said the Pegas loaded around 700,000 barrels of crude oil from Iran’s Sirri Island on Aug. 19, 2021.

It subsequently tried to unload the cargo at a Turkish port before heading to Greece, UANI said its analysis showed.

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com

Register

Reporting by Renee Maltezou, Jonathan Saul and Dmitry Zhdannikov; Editing by Mark Heinrich and Alexander Smith

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Read original article here

Yen tumbles as BOJ intervenes to keep bond yields pinned down

HONG KONG/TOKYO, March 28 (Reuters) – The Japanese yen slipped nearly 1% to a six-year low on Monday, after the Bank of Japan intervened to stop government bond yields from rising above its key target, while rising U.S. yields pushed the dollar higher against other currencies too.

The BOJ, which has repeatedly said it is committed to keeping monetary policy loose, on Monday made two offers to buy an unlimited amount of government bonds with maturities of more than five years and up to 10 years. The central bank is aiming to stop rising global interest rates from pushing up Japanese yields.

The dollar climbed roughly 0.95% to 123.25 yen, its highest since December 2015. It rallied over 7% so far in March, its biggest monthly gain in over five years.

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com

Register

“The market sees monetary policy divergence between the U.S. and Japan as the key driver of dollar-yen, so in contrast to the hawkish Fed comments recently, the (BOJ’s action) gives the impression that the BOJ remains dovish, and that’s leading to a higher dollar-yen,” said Shinichiro Kadota, senior currency strategist at Barclays in Tokyo.

“I think the risk is still to the upside in the near term, especially if this monetary policy divergence story stays intact. But the speed has been quite fast and it does seem a little overheated, so if we see any contrary headlines, we could see some correction as well,” he added.

The 10-year Treasuries yield was last 2.5567%, its highest since May 2019, and up 6.5 basis points on the day, as traders position themselves for an aggressive series of rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

The two year yield was 2.412%, its highest since April 2019, with these higher rates underpinning the dollar. The greenback index against a basket of major rivals advanced 0.38% to 99.194.

The euro slid 0.27% to $1.0950 and sterling lost 0.36% to $1.3150.

“We expect that the euro will remain heavy this week. The balance of risks suggests EUR/USD may test 1.0800 in coming weeks,” said CBA analysts in a note.

Inflation figures from major European economies and the eurozone are due from Wednesday, which could also affect the direction of the euro.

Also potentially driving the dollar this week is Friday’s non farm payroll data in the U.S., though given the market is already positioned for an aggressive pace of rate hikes this year, its effect could be muted say analysts.

The Aussie dollar bucked the trend however, inching higher to $0.7513 to hold near last week’s four-month high, helped on the day by rising Australian bond yields, as well as the longer term impact of higher commodity prices.

Aussie currency watchers are also looking out to Australia’s budget on Tuesday. Australia’s Treasurer said on Sunday the budget would mark a very significant material improvement to the government’s bottom line.

One possible headwind for the Aussie is the COVID-19 situation in China, after Shanghai said on Sunday it would lockdown the city to carry out COVID-19 testing.

The dollar climbed to a two week high of 6.3986 on the offshore yuan on Monday morning, before paring gains.

In cryptocurrency markets bitcoin was sitting pretty around $46,900 after jumping to as high as $47,766 in early trading, its highest level since early January.

Ether , the world’s second largest cryptocurrency, was at $3,320.

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com

Register

Reporting by Alun John in Hong Kong and Kevin Buckland in Tokyo; Editing by Shri Navaratnam

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Read original article here

Four weeks of war scar Russia’s economy

Russian Rouble coin is seen on a broken glass and displayed on the Russian flag in this illustration taken, February 24, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com

Register

LONDON, March 25 (Reuters) – Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24 sparked sweeping sanctions that ripped the country out of the global financial fabric and sent its economy reeling.

A month on, Russia’s currency has lost a large part of its value and its bonds and stocks have been ejected from indexes. Its people are experiencing economic pain that is likely to last for years to come.

Below are five charts showing how the past month has changed Russia’s economy and its global standing:

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com

Register

ECONOMIC PAIN

In 2020, Russia was the world’s 11th-largest economy, according to the World Bank. But by the end of this year, it may rank no higher than No. 15, based on the end-February rouble exchange rate, according to Jim O’Neill, the former Goldman Sachs economist who coined the BRIC acronym to describe the four big emerging economies Brazil, Russia, India and China.

Recession looks inevitable. Economists polled by the central bank predicted an 8% contraction this year and for inflation to reach 20%. read more

Forecasts from economists outside Russia are even gloomier. The Institute of International Finance predicts a 15% contraction in 2022, followed by a 3% contraction in 2023.

“Altogether, our projections mean that current developments are set to wipe out the economic gains of roughly fifteen years,” the IIF said in a note.

IIF on Russia GDP

INFLATION BUSTING TURNS TO DUST

Since taking office in 2013, central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina’s biggest triumph was curbing inflation from 17% in 2015 to just above 2% in early-2018. As price pressures rose in the post-pandemic months, she defied industrialists by raising interest rates eight months straight.

Nabiullina also resisted calls in 2014-2015 for capital controls to stem outflows following the annexation of Crimea.

But those achievements have been torn to shreds in less than a month.

Annual price growth has accelerated to 14.5% and should surpass 20%, five times the target. Households’ inflation expectations for the year ahead are above 18%, an 11-year high.

While panic-buying accounts for some of this, rouble weakness may keep price pressures elevated read more .

With Russia’s reserves warchest frozen overseas, Nabiullina was forced to more than double interest rates on Feb. 28 and introduce capital controls. The central bank now expects inflation back at target only in 2024.

Russia inflation

INDEX ELIMINATION

Sanctions are forcing index providers to eject Russia from benchmarks used by investors to funnel billions of dollars into emerging markets.

JPMorgan (.JPMEGDR) and MSCI are among those that have announced they are removing Russia from their bond and stock indexes respectively (.MSCIEF).

Russia’s standing in these indexes had already taken a hit following the first set of Western sanctions in 2014 and then in 2018, following the poisoning of a former Russian spy in Britain and investigations into alleged Russian meddling in the 2016 U.S. elections.

On March 31, Russia’s weighting will be dialled to zero by nearly all major index providers.

Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics

RATINGS RUPTURE

When Russian troops stormed into Ukraine, their country had a coveted “investment grade” credit rating with the three major agencies S&P Global, Moody’s and Fitch.

That allowed it to borrow relatively cheaply and a sovereign debt default appeared a distant prospect.

In the past four weeks, Russia has suffered the largest cuts ever made to a sovereign credit score. It is now at the bottom of the ratings ladder, flagging an imminent risk of default.

Russia’s credit rating sees largest cut ever seen globally

ROUBLE TROUBLE

A month ago, the rouble’s one-year average exchange rate sat at 74 per dollar. Trading on different platforms showed the ample liquidity and tight bid/ask spreads expected for a major emerging market currency.

All that has changed. With the central bank bereft of a large portion of it hard currency reserves, the rouble plunged to record lows of more than 120 per dollar locally. In offshore trade it fell as low as 160 to the greenback.

As liquidity dried up and bid/ask spreads widened, pricing the rouble has become haphazard. The exchange rate is yet to find a balance on- and offshore.

Reuters Graphics
Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com

Register

Reporting by Karin Strohecker, Sujata Rao, Rodrigo Campos and Marc Jones; Editing by Sam Holmes

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Read original article here

EXCLUSIVE Regulators prepare for possible closure of VTB in Europe – sources

An employee poses for a picture while demonstrating a payment card at a branch of VTB bank in Moscow, Russia May 30, 2019. REUTERS/Evgenia Novozhenina

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com

Register

FRANKFURT, March 3 (Reuters) – Regulators are preparing for a possible closure of the European arm of Russia’s second-largest bank, VTB Bank (VTBR.MM), amid growing concerns about the impact of Western sanctions on the bank following the Ukraine invasion, according to two sources familiar with the matter.

VTB Bank’s European operations could be closed within days by regulators in Germany, where it chiefly operates on the continent, one person with direct knowledge of the situation said.

The second source said BaFin, the German regulator, was on “high alert”, monitoring the situation closely and ready to act if needed although no final decision had been taken.

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com

Register

VTB, which did not respond to a Reuters’ request for comment, said on its European website on Thursday that it was in close consultation with BaFin. It said that the bank was stable and fully operational.

The Russian finance ministry in Moscow and officials at the embassy in Berlin did not respond to requests for comment about VTB’s European division.

BaFin declined to comment.

The London Stock Exchange Group’s clearing arm LCH said on Thursday it had placed VTB Capital, the trading division of VTB Bank, in default as a clearing member. read more

Last Friday, the exchange had suspended VTB Capital’s membership, meaning it could no longer buy and sell stocks listed on the platform.

A spokesperson for the Bundesbank, which shares responsibility for bank supervision, declined to comment on a specific bank when asked about Russian banks in Germany but said it was in close contact with BaFin in this regard. “If necessary, we will take the appropriate measures,” the spokesperson added.

Should regulators decide to close VTB in Europe, it would mark the second failure of a major Russian bank in the region as sanctions from the West squeeze the country’s lenders. Most of the European operations of Sberbank, Russia’s largest bank, closed earlier this week. read more

VTB, which has more than 4 billion euros of deposits in Europe, principally in Germany, would be covered by Berlin’s deposit protection scheme, which shields savers with up to 100,000 euros.

BaFin has said that VTB will not take on new customers and that existing account holders were able to access their money.

Supervisors, however, have been monitoring an outflow of deposits since Russia invaded Ukraine, one source familiar with the situation said. The person added that sanctions made it difficult for the bank to recapitalise to meet demands.

VTB has become one of the principal targets of economic sanctions against Moscow in recent days in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. read more

On Wednesday, it was excluded from the SWIFT messaging system underpinning global transactions.

That followed U.S. sanctions last week that effectively kicked the bank out of the U.S. financial system, banned trade with Americans and froze its U.S. assets.

One European Union official, asking not to be named, said VTB was in a similar position to Sberbank because both were sanctioned and had been reputationally damaged in Europe.

VTB had roughly 8 billion euros of assets in Europe, according to its most recent quarterly statements. Its European customers include 600 companies, 150 financial institutions from Russia and 160,000 private customers, according to its website.

In recent years, ordinary Germans and local governments have also parked their money with VTB in part because it was one of a handful of banks that did not charge negative interest rates.

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com

Register

Additional reporting by Frank Siebelt in Frankfurt and Jan Strupczewski in Brussels; Editing by Paritosh Bansal, Edward Tobin and Jane Merriman

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Read original article here