Tag Archives: EZ

German economy unexpectedly shrinks in Q4, reviving spectre of recession

  • Q4 GDP at -0.2% Q/Q vs forecast of 0.0%
  • Decline due mainly to falling private consumption
  • Economists reckon mild recession is likely

BERLIN, Jan 30 (Reuters) – The German economy unexpectedly shrank in the fourth quarter, data showed on Monday, a sign that Europe’s largest economy may be entering a much-predicted recession, though likely a shallower one than originally feared.

Gross domestic product decreased 0.2% quarter on quarter in adjusted terms, the federal statistics office said. A Reuters poll of analysts had forecast the economy would stagnate.

In the previous quarter, the German economy grew by an upwardly revised 0.5% versus the previous three months.

A recession – commonly defined as two successive quarters of contraction – has become more likely, as many experts predict the economy will shrink in the first quarter of 2023 as well.

“The winter months are turning out to be difficult – although not quite as difficult as originally expected,” said VP Bank chief economist Thomas Gitzel.

“The severe crash of the German economy remains absent, but a slight recession is still on the cards.”

German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said last week in the government’s annual economic report that the economic crisis triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine was now manageable, though high energy prices and interest rate rises mean the government remains cautious.

The government has said the economic situation should improve from spring onwards, and last week revised up its GDP forecast for 2023 — predicting growth of 0.2%, up from an autumn forecast of a 0.4% decline.

As far as the European Central Bank goes, interest rate expectations are unlikely to be affected by Monday’s GDP figures as inflationary pressures remain high, said Helaba bank economist Ralf Umlauf.

The ECB has all but committed to raising its key rate by half a percentage point this week to 2.5% to curb inflation.

Monday’s figures showed falling private consumption was the primary reason for the decrease in fourth-quarter GDP.

“Consumers are not immune to an erosion of their purchasing power due to record high inflation,” said Commerzbank chief economist Joerg Kraemer.

Inflation, driven mainly by high energy prices, eased for a second month in a row in December, with EU-harmonized consumer prices rising 9.6% on the year.

However, analysts polled by Reuters predict annual EU-harmonized inflation will enter the double digits again in January with a slight rise, to 10.0%. The office will publish the preliminary inflation rate for January on Tuesday.

Reporting by Miranda Murray and Rene Wagner, editing by Rachel More and Christina Fincher

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Exclusive: ECB union says staff losing faith in leadership over inflation, pay

  • 40% of ECB staff has low or no trust
  • Two-thirds say confidence is damaged
  • 63% worried about ECB’s ability to protect purchasing power

FRANKFURT, Jan 18 (Reuters) – (This Jan. 17 story has been corrected to restore the dropped words in paragraph 11)

European Central Bank staff are losing confidence in the institution’s leadership following the ECB’s failure to control inflation and a pay award that lagged the leap in prices, according to a survey by trade union IPSO.

The responses underline that even central banks, whose primary responsibility is fighting inflation, are not immune to staff dissatisfaction with the sharply rising cost of living.

The survey was organised in the context of a dispute between IPSO, which holds six out of nine seats on the ECB’s staff committee, and the central bank’s board over pay and remote-working arrangements.

An ECB spokesperson did not comment directly on IPSO’s findings when asked but pointed to a separate staff survey, run by the ECB itself last year, showing that 83% of nearly 3,000 respondents were proud to work for the ECB and 72% would recommend it.

Results of IPSO’s survey, which largely focused on pay and remote-working arrangements but also included questions about trust in the board, were sent to ECB staff on Tuesday in an email, seen by Reuters.

They showed two-thirds of roughly 1,600 respondents said their trust in Lagarde and the rest of the six-member ECB board had been damaged by recent developments such as high inflation and a pay increase that did not match the rise in prices.

Asked how much trust they had in Lagarde and the board when it comes to leading and managing the ECB, the central bank for the 20 countries that use the euro, just under half of respondents said “moderate” (34.3%) or “high” (14.6%).

But over 40% of respondents said they had “low” (28.6%) or “no” (12%) trust, while 10.5% could not say.

“This is a serious concern for our institution, as no one can correctly lead an organisation without the trust of its workforce,” the union said in its email.

INFLATION SURGE, PAY BATTLES

The survey was the first by IPSO to ask about trust in top management since Christine Lagarde took over as ECB President in late 2019.

A similar IPSO survey of ECB staff, taken just before her predecessor Mario Draghi stepped down, showed 54.5% of 735 respondents rated his presidency “very good” or “outstanding”, with support for his policy measures even higher.

Then, however, inflation in the euro zone had been low for a decade. Its recent surge to multi-decade highs in countries around the world has seen a revival in battles over pay between workers and the companies and institutions that employ them.

And a majority of respondents in the October 2019 survey also complained about a lack of transparency in recruitment and perceived favouritism under Draghi.

The most recent Bank of England staff survey, also conducted in 2019, showed 64% of respondents had “trust and confidence in the Bank’s leadership”.

A 2022 U.S. government survey of employees at departments and federal agencies found that 61% of respondents had “a high level of respect” for their organisation’s senior leaders – roughly stable compared to the previous two years.

The ECB spokesperson also pointed to internal surveys in 2020-21 that found roughly 80% of respondents were satisfied with health-and-safety measures taken by the ECB in response to the coronavirus pandemic.

The latest IPSO survey showed 63% of staff who responded were worried about the ECB’s ability to protect their purchasing power after being handed a pay increase of just 4% last year – or roughly half the rise in consumer prices.

The ECB has been criticised by politicians, bankers and academics for initially underestimating a surge in the cost of living and then making up for it with large and painful increases in borrowing costs.

Lagarde, who is not an economist and had not been a central banker before joining the ECB, colourfully defended her board at an event with staff last month.

“If it wasn’t for them I’d be a sad, lonely cowgirl lost somewhere in the Pampa of monetary policy,” Lagarde said, according to a recording of the Dec. 19 town hall seen by Reuters.

She and fellow board members have long worried about the risk of a potential “wage-price spiral”, where higher salaries feed into prices, which they argue would make it harder for the ECB to bring inflation back down to its 2% target.

But IPSO said that concern is misplaced and workers should not be made to bear the brunt of the current bout in inflation.

“The ECB might be preaching lower real wages, but this is not our stance as your staff union,” it wrote in its message to ECB employees.

Editing by Catherine Evans

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Dollar gains as inflation pressures persist; eyes on c.bank meetings

SINGAPORE, Dec 12 (Reuters) – The dollar climbed on Monday after data on Friday showed U.S. producer prices had risen more than expected last month, pointing to persistent inflationary pressures and a chance the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates higher for longer.

The dollar rose 0.35% against the Japanese yen to 137.05. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index eked out a 0.12% gain at 105.18.

The euro was last 0.2% lower at $1.0509.

Sterling fell 0.31% to $1.2229 in Asia trade on Monday, while the Aussie edged 0.34% lower to $0.6773.

The kiwi similarly slipped 0.34% to $0.6393.

The U.S. producer price index for final demand in November was up 0.3% from the previous month and 7.4% from a year earlier, data released on Friday showed, a slight upside surprise from forecasts of a 0.2% and 7.2% increase, respectively.

“There were a little bit of concerns about how inflation would be persistently high and would encourage the Fed to keep policy at a restrictive level for even longer than previously expected,” said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA).

Traders were also kept on edge in the run up to key risk events this week, including U.S. inflation data and a slew of major central bank meetings.

The Federal Reserve once again takes centre stage, and is widely expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points, though focus will be on the central bank’s updated economic projections and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference.

“If he does talk more about the risks to the economy … I think that will probably be considered dovish by markets and, of course, markets love dovish comments and how the FOMC will pay more attention to downside risks to the economy,” said CBA’s Kong.

The Bank of England and the European Central Bank (ECB) will also meet this week, and each is likewise expected to deliver a 50 bp rate hike.

“ECB officials have been telling us that they care more about the underlying inflation, which has remained elevated,” said Kong of the upcoming ECB meeting.

“If they do hike by 50 bps … they might follow up with some pretty hawkish comments in Lagarde’s post meeting conference.”

Ahead of the FOMC meeting, November’s U.S. inflation figures are due on Tuesday, with economists expecting core annual inflation of 6.1%.

“The market reaction to U.S. inflation surprises has been asymmetric so far in 2022, with downside surprises having a larger effect than upside ones,” said analysts at Barclays.

“The inflation print will likely be the bigger driver of the two, (given) the Fed’s guidance toward smaller hikes,” they added, referring to influences on the U.S. dollar.
The offshore yuan eased slightly to 6.9798 per dollar, further pressured by worries over a potential spike in COVID cases as China eases its stringent COVID-19 restrictions.

Reporting by Rae Wee; Editing by Lincoln Feast and Bradley Perrett

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Credit Suisse pays down debt to calm investor fears

  • To buy back up to $3 billion in debt
  • Seen as bid to reassure nervous investors
  • Move comes weeks ahead of planned overhaul
  • Shares up as much as 3% in early trade

ZURICH, Oct 7 (Reuters) – Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) will buy back up to 3 billion Swiss francs ($3 billion) of debt, the embattled Swiss bank said on Friday, making a show of strength as it seeks to reassure investors after a tumultuous week.

The move trims the bank’s debts and is an attempt to bolster confidence after steep falls in its stock price and bonds. Unsubstantiated rumours that its future was in doubt have swirled on social media amid concern it may need to raise billions of francs in fresh capital.

One of the largest banks in Europe, Credit Suisse is embarking on a radical turnaround after losing more than $5 billion from the collapse of investment firm Archegos last year, when it also had to suspend client funds linked to failed financier Greensill.

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Bank executives spent last weekend reassuring large clients and investors about its financial strength, seeking to dispel speculation about its future.

CEO Ulrich Koerner also told staff in a memo that it has sufficient capital and liquidity. read more

But his words only fuelled rumours about the bank, as a social media storm gathered pace, triggering a sell-off of its stock.

The bank said the debt buyback would “allow us to take advantage of market conditions to repurchase debt at attractive prices”.

Investors took heart. Credit Suisse shares gained as much as 3% in early trading on Friday, while the price of its euro-denominated bonds rose.

“It’s an opportunistic move to take advantage of market conditions that might be reassuring to some investors,” said Vontobel analyst Andreas Venditti. “If bought below par, a gain results that will increase capital slightly.”

TROUBLED CHAPTER

Earlier this week, in an unusual step, the Swiss National Bank, which oversees the financial stability of systemically important banks in Switzerland, said it was monitoring the situation at Credit Suisse.

Banks are deemed systemically important if their failure would undermine the Swiss economy and financial system.

The move is reminiscent of a multi-billion-euro debt buyback by Deutsche Bank in 2016, when it faced a similar crisis and doubts over its future.

Dixit Joshi, a former Deutsche executive, has recently joined Credit Suisse as finance chief.

Zuercher Kantonalbank said the bonds are currently trading at a high discount, which allows Credit Suisse to cut debt at a low cost. Analyst Christian Schmidiger said the move was also a “signal that Credit Suisse has sufficient liquidity”.

Credit Suisse said it was making a 1 billion euro cash tender offer in relation to eight euro or pound sterling denominated senior debt securities and another offer to buy back 12 U.S. dollar denominated senior debt securities for up to $2 billion.

The developments unfolded after sources recently told Reuters that Credit Suisse was sounding out investors for fresh cash, approaching them for the fourth time in around seven years.

Under a restructuring launched by Chairman Axel Lehmann, the bank envisions shrinking its investment bank to focus even more on its flagship wealth management business. Chiefly, he hopes to close a troubled chapter for the bank and repair its reputation.

Over the past three quarters alone, losses have added up to nearly 4 billion Swiss francs. Given the uncertainties, the bank’s financing costs have surged.

The bank is due to present its new business strategy on Oct. 27, when it announces third-quarter results.

Rating agency Moody’s Investors Service expects losses for Credit Suisse to swell to $3 billion by year-end, Moody’s lead analyst on the bank told Reuters on Thursday. read more

The bank has also said it is looking to sell its upmarket Savoy Hotel, one of the best-known hotels in Zurich. read more

($1 = 0.9897 Swiss francs)

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Writing by John Revill and John O’Donnell; additional reporting by Amanda Cooper in London; editing by Mark Potter and Jason Neely

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Sterling, euro rally against dollar after BoE buys UK bonds

NEW YORK/LONDON, Sept 28 (Reuters) – After tumbling earlier, sterling rallied against the dollar on Wednesday following the Bank of England’s (BOE) purchase of UK government bonds, letting some air out of the greenback’s progress broadly after it had touched a fresh 20-year high.

The BoE said it received 2.587 billion pounds’ ($2.78 billion) worth of offers in its first bond buyback operation aimed at stabilizing the market, and had accepted only 1.025 billion pounds’ worth. The central bank had committed to buying as many long-dated government bonds, know as gilts, as needed between Wednesday and Oct. 14.

As markets tried to digest what the move meant for the pound, the currency whipsawed during Wednesday’s session, jumping as high as $1.09165 and falling as low as $1.05390. It was last up 1.51% at $1.08921.

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The BoE intervention was driving currency trading broadly, according to Erik Nelson, macro strategist at Wells Fargo.

“You had financial stress everywhere. The yields were rising and the dollar was rising. It was sort of feeding on itself. We needed something or someone to stop the financial stress and financial panic that was happening. The BoE stepped in there,” said Nelson. “The easing of the financial stress has helped sterling and other currencies rally against the dollar.”

But the relief for sterling may be temporary as the UK still has to deal with macro trends such as high inflation.

“It’s a currency-negative policy. You’re offering to limit the increase of yields at a time of high inflation,” said Nelson. “The dollar will continue to go up over the next few months. … The U.S. is growing at a much more solid pace, at least for now, versus the UK and Europe, and the U.S. doesn’t have the same kind of energy crisis as the UK and Europe.”

Currency investors have also been monitoring Russia’s war against Ukraine and energy uncertainty in Europe after leaks on Nord Stream pipelines between Russia and Europe spewed gas into the Baltic Sea, said Brad Bechtel, global head of FX at Jefferies in New York. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and others have attributed the leaks to acts of sabotage.

The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a group of major currencies, was last at 112.660 after hitting a fresh 20-year high of 114.78.

While the dollar initially had broad-based gains, the greenback eased sharply as the U.S. trading session progressed, with the euro last up 1.52% at $0.9739 after falling as low as $0.95355 .

The dollar was last down 0.61% against Japan’s yen at 143.955 after touching a high of 144.860 .

The Australian dollar , which is particularly sensitive to swings in investor sentiment, was last up 1.410%.

Elsewhere in Asia, the offshore yuan hit a record low, pressured by expectations of further U.S. rate hikes.

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Reporting by Sinéad Carew in New York, Rae Wee in Singapore and Alun John in London ; editing by Richard Pullin, Kim Coghill, Shri Navaratnam, Gareth Jones and Jonathan Oatis

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Dollar soars to two-decade high as Putin shakes FX market ahead of Fed

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  • Dollar index at two-decade high
  • Euro slides back toward two-decade lows
  • Putin announces partial troop mobilization for Ukraine
  • Markets gauging Fed hawkishness in Powell briefing

LONDON/NEW YORK, Sept 21 (Reuters) – The dollar surged to a new two-decade high on Wednesday just ahead of another expected aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate hike, as investors fled for safety after a decision by Russian President Vladimir Putin to mobilize more troops for the conflict in Ukraine.

Putin on Wednesday called up 300,000 reservists to fight in Ukraine and said Moscow would respond with the might of all its vast arsenal if the West pursued what he called its “nuclear blackmail” over the conflict there. read more

The news propelled the dollar index, which measures the greenback’s value against six major currencies, to 110.87 <=USD>, its strongest level since 2002.

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The dollar index is up almost 16% this year and set for its biggest annual surge since 1981. It was last trading at 110.71, up about 0.5% on the day.

“Most of the dollar moves today are Putin-related,” said Steven Englander, head of global G10 FX research and North America macro strategy at Standard Chartered in New York..

“When I look at my table, the five worst performing currencies are the Swedish crown, Polish zloty, Czech koruna, Hungarian forint and the euro. That’s more a Putin worry because of hints that Russia might escalate the conflict in Ukraine and on what limits he puts on the weapons they use.”

Dollar index at two-decade high ahead of Fed

European currencies bore the brunt of selling in foreign exchange markets as Putin’s comments exacerbated concern about the economic outlook for a region already hit hard by Russia’s squeeze on gas supplies to Europe.

The euro fell to a two-week low of $0.9885 , within sight of two-decade lows touched earlier this month. It was last down 0.7% at $0.9901.

Sterling fell to a fresh 37-year low of $1.1304 and was last down 0.5% at $1.1335

Later on Wednesday, the Fed is expected to lift interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point for a third straight time and signal how much further and how fast borrowing costs may need to rise to tame inflation. read more

The policy decision, due at 1800 GMT, will mark the latest move in a synchronized policy shift by global central banks that is testing the resilience of the world economy and the ability of countries to manage exchange rate shocks as the value of the dollar soars.

“What the market is looking for is whether (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell says the Fed does not know how far they have to go and they’ll go as far as they need to go,” said Standard Chartered’s Englander.

“If someone asks him whether he sees rates going to 5% and he says he doesn’t see it, but doesn’t rule it out if that’s needed to get inflation down, then that would be really hawkish and means they’re opening up rates to an even higher range than what the market anticipates.”

The Australian and New Zealand dollars meanwhile plumbed multi-year lows. The Aussie dollar hit a trough of US$0.6655, its lowest since June 2020, while the New Zealand currency fell to US$0.5873, its lowest since April 2020.

Against the battered yen, the dollar was up 0.2% at 143.97, holding off recent 24-year peaks

“It was interesting to me that dollar/yen dipped on the news of the announcement, potentially indicating a return of the yen’s safe-haven credentials which have been absent for much of the year,” said Colin Asher, a senior economist at Mizuho Corporate Bank.

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Currency bid prices at 10:42AM (1442 GMT)

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Reporting by Dhara Ranasinghe in London and Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss in New York; Additional reporting by Lucy Raitano; Editing by Edwina Gibbs, Catherine Evans and Mark Heinrich

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Dollar hits 20-year high as markets hunker down for higher rates for longer

U.S. Dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

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LONDON Aug 29 (Reuters) – The U.S dollar climbed to a 20-year high against other major currencies on Monday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signalled interest rates would be kept higher for longer to bring down soaring inflation.

The dollar index , which measures the currency’s value against a basket of peers, scaled a fresh two-decade peak of 109.48.

That left its European peers in the doldrums even as hawkish European Central Bank comments boosted expectations for a supersized September rate hike.

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The euro was down a quarter of a percent in early European trade at $0.99415 , within sight of recent 20-year lows, while Britain’s pound sank to a 2-1/2 year low .

London markets were closed for a public holiday.

Powell told the Jackson Hole central banking conference in Wyoming on Friday that the Fed would raise rates as high as needed to restrict growth, and would keep them there “for some time” to bring down inflation that is running at more than three times the Fed’s 2% goal.

“Powell’s comments endorsed the pricing of a higher Fed funds rate for a longer period,” said Kenneth Broux, a currency strategist at Societe Generale. “The assumption that the Fed would start cutting rates in mid-2023 is premature.”

Money markets responded by ramping up bets for a more aggressive Fed rate hike in September, with the chances of a 75bps hike now seen around 70%.

U.S. Treasury yields shot up, with two-year bond yields hitting a 15-year high at around 3.49% , bolstering the greenback.

The dollar was up 0.8% at 138.81 yen , having hit its highest since July 21, while the offshore yuan fell to a fresh two-year low of 6.9321 per dollar.

Sterling fell to a 2-1/2-year low of $1.1649 and was last down 0.5% to $1.1676.

“I think for this week, the (U.S. dollar index) is going to track even higher towards 110 points, just as market participants continue to price in more aggressive tightening cycles by the major central banks,” said Carol Kong, senior associate for currency strategy and international economics at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

Speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium, ECB board member Isabel Schnabel, French Central Bank chief Francois Villeroy de Galhau and Latvian central bank Governor Martins Kazaks all argued for forceful or significant policy action.

Even as the potential for a big ECB rate hike in September rises, the euro has struggled given an energy crisis in the bloc that raises recession risks. Russian state energy giant Gazprom (GAZP.MM) is expected to halt natural gas supplies to Europe from Aug. 31 to Sept. 2. read more

And as risk-off sentiment gripped world markets, the Australian and New Zealand dollars also succumbed to selling pressure.

The Aussie dollar fell to $0.6838, the lowest since July 19, while the kiwi hit its lowest since mid-July at $0.61.

In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin recovered some ground but remained below the $20,000 level it dipped below at the weekend. read more

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Reporting by Dhara Ranasinghe; additional reporting by Rae Wee in Singapore; editing by Christina Fincher

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Central banks will fail to tame inflation without better fiscal policy, study says

The exterior of the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building is seen in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 14, 2022. REUTERS/Sarah Silbiger/File Photo

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JACKSON HOLE, Wyo., Aug 27 (Reuters) – Central banks will fail to control inflation and could even push price growth higher unless governments start playing their part with more prudent budget policies, according to a study presented to policymakers at the Jackson Hole conference in the United States.

Governments around the world opened their coffers during the COVID-19 pandemic to prop up economies, but those efforts have helped push inflation ratesto their highest levels in nearly half a century, raising the risk that rapid price growth will become entrenched.

Central banks are now raising interest rates, but the new study, presented on Saturday at the Kansas City Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium argued that a central bank’s inflation-fighting reputation is not decisive in such a scenario.

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“If the monetary tightening is not supported by the expectation of appropriate fiscal adjustments, the deterioration of fiscal imbalances leads to even higher inflationary pressure,” said Francesco Bianchi of Johns Hopkins University and Leonardo Melosi of the Chicago Fed.

“As a result, a vicious circle of rising nominal interest rates, rising inflation, economic stagnation, and increasing debt would arise,” the paper argued. “In this pathological situation, monetary tightening would actually spur higher inflation and would spark a pernicious fiscal stagflation.”

On track this fiscal year to come in at just over $1 trillion, the U.S. budget deficit is set to be far smaller than earlier projected, but at 3.9% of GDP, it remains historically high and is seen declining only marginally next year.

The euro zone, which is also struggling with high inflation, is likely to follow a similar path, with its deficit hitting 3.8% this year and staying elevated for years, particularly as the bloc is likely to suffer a recession starting in the fourth quarter.

The study argued that around half of the recent surge in U.S. inflation was due to fiscal policy and an erosion in beliefs that the government would run prudent fiscal policies.

While some central banks have been criticised for recognising the inflation problem too late, the study argued that even earlier rate hikes would have been futile.

“More hawkish (Fed) policy would have lowered inflation by only 1 percentage point at the cost of reducing output by around 3.4 percentage points,” the authors said. “This is a quite large sacrifice ratio.”

To control inflation, fiscal policy must work in tandem with monetary policy and reassure people that instead of inflating away debt, the government would raise taxes or cut expenditures.

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Reporting by Balazs Koranyi; Editing by Paul Simao

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Dollar higher on risk aversion; euro revisits parity

  • Euro under pressure as Russia to halt gas supplies
  • Yuan dips to nearly 2-year low as PBOC eases policy again

NEW YORK, Aug 22 (Reuters) – The U.S. dollar rose across the board on Monday, briefly driving the euro back below parity, as investors shied away from riskier assets amid growing fears that interest-rate hikes in the United States and Europe, aimed at curbing inflation, would weaken the global economy.

Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was 0.5% higher at 108.71 , not far from the two-decade high of 109.29 touched in mid-July.

The greenback has found support in recent sessions as several Federal Reserve officials reiterated an aggressive monetary tightening stance ahead of the Fed’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming, symposium this week.

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The latest of these officials, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, on Friday said the “urge” among central bankers was toward faster, front-loaded rate increases. read more

“It’s risk being taken off the table after the market got a reality check from last week’s Fed speakers that an imminent dovish pivot is off the cards,” said Michael Brown, head of market intelligence at Caxton in London.

“With investors now clearly expecting a relatively hawkish message from Fed Chair (Jerome) Powell at Jackson Hole on Friday, it’s a perfect cocktail of risk-aversion and a hawkish Fed for the greenback to bound higher, especially when growth worries, especially in Europe, continue to mount,” Brown said.

The euro fell following Russia’s announcement late on Friday of a three-day halt to European gas supplies via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline at the end of this month. Investors worry that the halt could exacerbate an energy crisis that has weighed on the common currency in recent months. read more

The European Central Bank must keep raising rates even if a recession in Germany is increasingly likely, as inflation will stay uncomfortably high through 2023, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel told a German newspaper.

The weakness briefly drove the euro below $1 for the first time since July 14. The euro was last down 0.7% at $0.99715 .

“0.9950 seems to be the pivotal level, as that’s the prior low, if that gives way then we could see significant further losses, especially with the ECB’s window to tighten policy rapidly slamming shut,” Brown said.

China’s yuan dropped to its lowest in nearly two years after the country’s central bank cut its benchmark lending rate and lowered the mortgage reference by a bigger margin on Monday, adding to last week’s easing measures, as Beijing boosts efforts to revive an economy hobbled by a property crisis and a resurgence of COVID-19 cases. read more

Against the offshore yuan , the dollar was 0.55% higher at 6.8621.

Sterling fell to its lowest since mid-July against the dollar on Monday as surging energy costs and a summer of strikes highlighted the UK cost of living crisis and intensified fears for further economic slowdown. read more

The pound was last down 0.43% at $1.1781 , within a whisker of taking out the near 2-1/2 year low of 1.1761 touched in mid-July.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin was about 0.92% lower at $21,316, weighed down by broad risk aversion in markets.

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Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; editing by Jonathan Oatis

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Dollar jumps vs yen as Fed officials hint more rate hikes coming

NEW YORK, Aug 2 (Reuters) – The dollar strengthened sharply against the Japanese yen on Tuesday as remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve officials hinted that more interest rate hikes are coming in the near term.

A trio of Fed officials from across the policy spectrum suggested Tuesday that they and their colleagues remain resolute and united on getting U.S. rates up to a level that will put a dent in activity and inflation. read more

“We got a steady dose of Fed speak that… triggered a strong move back into the greenback,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda in New York.

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“What you’re seeing is that the dollar’s reign is not going to go away any time soon, as the interest rate differential seems like it might get even wider against the yen.”

Investors remain keen to see the U.S. monthly jobs report on Friday.

The U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback against six peers, was last up 0.9% at 106.31. The index had eased recently as investors began reassessing how aggressive the Fed may be with rate hikes in the future.

Against the yen, the dollar was up 1.2% at 133.12 yen.

The dollar rose to a session higher against the yen as yields in the U.S. Treasury market rallied. U.S. two-year yields, which reflect rate expectations, rose to one-week highs .

Early in the session, the dollar had been weaker against the yen as concern over U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan made investors more risk averse.

Pelosi said her trip demonstrated American solidarity with the Chinese-claimed self-ruled island, but China condemned the highest-level U.S. visit in 25 years as a threat to peace and stability. read more

The offshore Chinese yuan fell 0.09% versus the greenback at $6.7780 per dollar.

The Australian dollar was down 1.5% in the wake of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s move to raise interest rates by 50 bps to 1.85%, in line with expectations. read more

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Currency bid prices at 4:30PM (2030 GMT)

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Reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch;
Additional reporting by Saikat Chatterjee in London; Editing by David Holmes, Susan Fenton and Lisa Shumaker

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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