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Delta variant is California’s most dominant coronavirus strain

The highly infectious Delta variant has become California’s most identified strain of the coronavirus, a troubling development that underscores the strain’s danger to unvaccinated populations.

New data released by the California Department of Public Health now say that 35.6% of coronavirus variants so far analyzed in June have been identified as the Delta variant, which was first identified in India. That’s a dramatic relative increase from May, when the Delta variant comprised just 5.6% of analyzed coronavirus cases in California, and Delta was the state’s fourth most identified variant.

The latest numbers were enough to dethrone the previous dominant strain, Alpha, which was first identified in the United Kingdom and now comprises 34.3% of analyzed coronavirus cases in June.

Alpha was California’s most dominant strain, for just two months — in April and May. The state’s previous leading strain before that was the California variant, which is now also known as Epsilon, but now comprises less than 2% of analyzed cases.

The Delta variant might be twice as contagious as the initial variants of the coronavirus that spread rapidly around the globe last year.

“The rapid increase in the Delta variant suggests that this strain is more easily transmitted between people than other strains circulating in California,” the California Department of Public Health said in a statement to the Los Angeles Times.

“Nevertheless, there is evidence that vaccines available in the U.S. are effective against the Delta variant,” state officials added.

The Delta variant is also spreading rapidly nationwide. The director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, said that recent data show that 25% of analyzed coronavirus cases nationwide are of the Delta variant. In some areas of the country, nearly half of analyzed cases are of the Delta variant.

By contrast, from May 9-22, the Delta variant made up less than 3% of analyzed coronavirus samples nationwide.

There are rapidly increasing reports of Delta variant cases confirmed in Los Angeles County, too.

L.A. County started seeing increases in the Delta variant in early April. In May, the county had fewer than 20 identified cases per week, but by June, there were 60 to 80.

For the week that ended June 19, Delta made up nearly 50% of all cases analyzed in L.A. County; four weeks earlier, it accounted for less than 5%.

Delta has been identified in 245 coronavirus cases so far in L.A. County, which early geographic clusters of cases identified in Palmdale and Lancaster. Fourteen cases of the Delta variant were among residents of a single household.

The relative increase in the proportion of identified Delta cases comes as statewide and L.A. County COVID-19 hospitalizations have started to increase.

The number of Californians hospitalized for COVID-19 fell to a low of 915 on June 12 — the smallest number it has been since the state began regularly tracking COVID-19 hospitalizations. But by Wednesday,1,090 people were in hospitals statewide with such infections, a 16% increase, before dropping Thursday to 1,071.

COVID-19 hospitalizations in L.A. County hit a record low of 212 on June 12. But as of Thursday, there were 275 hospitalized patients — a 30% increase, though still far below the peak of 8,098 during the worst days of the pandemic.

State officials say they don’t expect California’s hospitals to once again be overwhelmed with COVID-19 patients — there are simply too many vaccinated people around to imagine such a scenario.

But officials noted that it remains crucial that more Californians get vaccinated.

“We know our hospitalizations are creeping up — and most of the patients are unvaccinated. We also know the science is clear — getting vaccinated protects you AND those around you. Get vaccinated,” tweeted Gov. Gavin Newsom.

His comments echoed those given by Dr. Anthony Fauci, the U.S. government’s top infectious diseases expert, recently at a press briefing.

Fauci recently pointed to recent studies showing that the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was 88% effective against symptomatic disease from the Delta variant and 96% effective against hospitalization after two doses were administered. The AstraZeneca vaccine, which is not yet approved for use in the U.S. but uses similar technology used in the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, was found to be 92% effective against hospitalization.

“The best way to protect yourself against the virus and its variants is to be fully vaccinated. It works,” Fauci said.

Some officials, however, have said the science isn’t settled on whether some vaccinated people could be at higher risk for contracting the Delta variant and — while not getting severely sick — passing the virus on to other people.

That was the reasoning behind the L.A. County Department of Public Health’s latest recommendation that even fully vaccinated people return to wearing masks in indoor public settings until more definitive information emerges about the Delta variant.

L.A. County officials expressed worry over a recent doubling of new coronavirus cases over the past seven-day period compared with the previous week. From June 25 to July 1, L.A. County reported about 2,600 new coronavirus cases, more than double the previous week’s sum of more than 1,100 cases.

“Whenever you see a doubling of cases over a very short time, we all need to pay attention to that and we all need to think about what else we could be doing that may help us get back to reducing the spread,” said L.A. County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer.

Ferrer agrees that fully vaccinated people are extraordinarily protected against serious illness and death from COVID-19, including from the Delta variant. But, she added, “the big unknown is: Can you become infected — have mild illness — and go ahead and spread that infection to others” even if you’re fully vaccinated?

Until more information comes out about that, Ferrer requested that L.A. County residents put on a mask when going into an indoor setting where you don’t know everyone’s vaccination status. “If mask wearing indoors provides that extra layer of protection, I think it’s worth it, while we get more questions answered about the variant, and we get more people vaccinated.”

Besides L.A. County health officials, other authorities who have also suggested even vaccinated people still wear masks include Illinois Gov. J. B. Pritzker, the government of Israel, the World Health Organization, and local health officials in the St. Louis area.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has continued to say that fully vaccinated people need not mask up, because of the extraordinary protection the vaccines authorized in the U.S. offer.

“If you are vaccinated, you have a high degree of protection, so you need not wear a mask — either indoor or outdoor,” Fauci said.

He also added that local authorities are free to make their own recommendations or requirements based on regional conditions.

California officials and other local health agencies throughout the state have continued to align with the CDC guidance on masking recommendations.

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US Dollar’s Status as Dominant “Global Reserve Currency” Drops to 25-Year Low

Central banks getting nervous about the Fed’s drunken Money Printing and the US Government’s gigantic debt? But still leery of the Chinese renminbi.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

The global share of US-dollar-denominated exchange reserves dropped to 59.0% in the fourth quarter, according to the IMF’s COFER data released today. This matched the 25-year low of 1995. These foreign exchange reserves are Treasury securities, US corporate bonds, US mortgage-backed securities, US Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities, etc. held by foreign central banks.

Since 2014, the dollar’s share has dropped by 7 full percentage points, from 66% to 59%, on average 1 percentage point per year. At this rate, the dollar’s share would fall below 50% over the next decade:

Not included in global foreign exchange reserves are the Fed’s own holdings of dollar-denominated assets, its $4.9 trillion in Treasury securities and $2.2 trillion in mortgage-backed securities, that it amassed as part of its QE.

The US dollar’s status as the dominant global reserve currency is a crucial enabler for the US government to keep ballooning its public debt, and for Corporate America’s relentless efforts to create the vast trade deficits by offshoring production to cheap countries, most prominently China and Mexico. They’re all counting on the willingness of other central banks to hold large amounts of dollar-denominated debt.

But it seems, central banks have been getting just a tad nervous and want to diversify their holdings – but ever so slowly, and not all of a sudden, given the magnitude of this thing, which, if mishandled, could blow over everyone’s house of cards.

20 years of decline.

Two decades ago, when the dollar had a share of about 70% of reserve currencies, a presumed competitor became day-to-day reality: The euro, which combined the currencies of the member states into one currency, thereby combining their weight as reserve currency. Since then, the dollar’s share has dropped by 11 percentage points.

By contrast, between 1977 and 1991, the dollars share had dropped by 46 percentage points – with huge plunges in 1979 and 1980 possibly linked to US inflation which was threatening to spiral out of control, peaking at nearly 15% in 1980. The plunge bottomed out in 1991, with inflation more or less under control. And the dollar’s share then surged by 25 percentage points until 2000:

The other reserve currencies.

The euro’s share had since been in the range between 19.5% and 20.6%, but it Q4 it broke out of the range and rose to 21.4%, the highest in the data. The ECB’s holdings of euro-denominated assets that it acquired as part of its QE are not included in the euro-denominated foreign exchange reserves.

The rest of the reserve currencies are also-rans – the spaghetti at the bottom in the chart below. This includes the Chinese renminbi, the bold red line at the bottom:

Renminbi a threat to the dollar’s hegemony? Not yet.

The renminbi’s share is still only 2.25%, despite the magnitude and global influence of China’s economy, and despite the hype when the IMF elevated the renminbi to an official global reserve currency in October 2016 by including it in the basket of currencies that back the Special Drawing Rights (SDRs).

But the renminbi’s share has been creeping up ever so slowly. At the rate it has been gaining momentum over the past two years (+0.36 percentage points in two years), it would take the renminbi another 50 years or so to reach a share of 25%.

Clearly, other central banks are still leery of the renminbi and its implications, and are not eager to dump their dollars all at once in exchange for renminbi; easy does it.

Also-rans under the microscope: Rise of the yen.

To see what’s going on with the spaghetti at the bottom of the above chart, I magnified the scale and limited it to the range of 0% to 6%. This takes the dollar and the euro out of the picture, and allows for a detailed look of the other reserve currencies.

What sticks out is the surge of the yen, the third largest reserve currency. This includes a 2.0-percentage point gain since Q4 2016, which blew away the 1.15-percentage point gain over the same period by the renminbi. With regards to the yen, the renminbi is losing ground.

Despite Brexit and all the scary hoopla around it, the pound sterling (GBP), the fourth largest reserve currency, has not given up any share.

The Eurozone has had a large trade surplus – between €200 billion and €275 billion a year in recent years – with the rest of the world after it emerged from the euro debt crisis in 2012. From the US side, the US trade deficit in goods with the Eurozone was $183 billion in 2020.

The Eurozone’s trade surplus shows that it is easily possible for an economic area with a large trade surplus to also have one of the top reserve currencies. There is no requirement that a large reserve currency must be associated with a large trade deficit. But having the dominant reserve currency helps the US in funding its trade deficits and ballooning government debts.

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US coronavirus: The UK identified variant ‘might become dominant’ in the US, Fauci says

“It seems to be very efficient in spreading from person to person,” the director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Disease told CNN’s Chris Cuomo, adding that recent studies show that it could be more deadly and cause more severe illness.

The emergence of these virus mutations — first detected in the United Kingdom (B.1.1.7), South Africa (B.1.351) and Brazil (P.1), respectively — could mean another surge in cases, according to Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.

The UK variant is already on track to becoming dominant in hotspots like Florida and Southern California “within a few weeks,” according to a testing company called Helix that has helped identify the largest share of US cases.

The only way to prevent the variants from becoming dominant is to prevent them from spreading from person to person by following public health measures and getting as many people vaccinated as quickly as possible, Fauci said.

Fauci tweeted Thursday his hopes that data will support coronavirus vaccinations for older children by late spring or early summer.

And the US Food and Drug Administration said Thursday it plans to use the process for updating flu vaccines as a template for authorizing any changes to coronavirus shots to address the emergence of new variants.

“We have a possibility, and the capability, of trying to stop them from becoming dominant,” Fauci said.

New vaccines hope to ease the burden if approved

How quickly the variants spread versus the speed of vaccinations will be a key factor in the amount of coronavirus deaths over the coming months, according to the latest forecast from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.

Depending on the balance, up to another 190,000 people could die between now and June 1, bringing the death toll total from 455,733 on Thursday to more than 630,000.

New coronavirus vaccines added to the market could help speed up the inoculation process.

The biotechnology company Novavax announced on Thursday that the “rolling review” process for authorization of its Covid-19 vaccine is underway in multiple countries.

The vaccine maker announced that it has started the process with several regulatory agencies, including the US FDA, the European Medicines Agency, UK Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency and Health Canada. Rolling review means that the company will submit some completed sections of its application for authorization instead of waiting until the entire application is finished.

And Johnson & Johnson officially asked the FDA for an emergency use authorization of its Covid-19 vaccine Thursday.

The company has been developing a single-shot vaccine it says could help reduce “the burden of disease for people globally and putting an end to the pandemic,” Dr. Paul Stoffels, Chief Scientific Officer at Johnson & Johnson, said in a statement.

The FDA will schedule a public meeting, and if the agency decides to authorize the vaccine, the CDC Committee on Immunization Practices will meet to discuss whether the vaccine should be given to Americans and if so, who should get it first.

The push to vaccinate teachers and return to the classroom

As some students approach nearly a year since they have stepped foot in their classrooms, officials have been eager to see a return to in-person learning.

CDC director Rochelle Walensky has said that with the proper distancing, masking and testing in place, schools can safely resume on campus even before teachers are vaccinated. But many states are making the inoculation of teachers a priority.

So far, 24 states and Washington, DC are now allowing some teachers or school staff to receive the vaccine.

In West Virginia, all teachers over 50-years-old who expressed that they wanted the vaccine already have received it, according to Gov. Jim Justice. In Ohio, Gov. Mike DeWine has set a plan to have all teachers vaccinated by the end of February, with the goal of all students returning to classrooms by March 1.

Alabama and Colorado will include teachers among those who can be vaccinated starting on Monday.

But the availability of doses still poses an issue in many states as officials have complained that their allotment of doses is not meeting the demand.

In some cities, like Chicago and Minneapolis, officials are at odds with teachers unions and schools as their push to reopen is met with a concern for the safety of staff, students and families. In some cases, the tensions have boiled over into lawsuits and threats of strikes.

Fauci promotes two vaccine doses for those previously infected

Separately, Fauci said Thursday that even those who have already had Covid-19 should still be vaccinated.

“If you had Covid-19, you should still get vaccinated. Because re-infection is uncommon 90 days after initial infection, you can delay vaccination until the end of that 90-day period, if desired. But vaccination is still safe after you’ve recovered from Covid-19,” he said in a tweet.

Though a study earlier in the week suggested that people who were previously infected with coronavirus may only need one shot of Covid-19 vaccines, Fauci pushed back.

The authors of this preprint study, which has not been peer reviewed, argued that changing policy to give these individuals only one dose would “spare them from unnecessary pain and free up many urgently needed vaccine doses.”

A previous infection may help boot vaccination, Fauci tweeted, but there is not enough evidence yet to show it is sufficient to compare to two doses for most people.

“People who had COVID-19 should still follow the current @FDA guidance,” he said.

CNN’s Michael Nedelman, Maggie Fox, Andrea Diaz, Jacqueline Howard, Yon Pomrenze, Evan Simko-Bednarski, Elizabeth Stuart and Naomi Thomas contributed to this report.

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