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World

Saudi Arabia expects 2022 budget surplus after years of deficit

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RIYADH, Dec 12 (Reuters) – Saudi Arabia said on Sunday it expected to post its first budget surplus in nearly a decade next year, as it plans to restrict public spending despite a surge in oil prices that helped to refill state coffers hammered by the pandemic.

After an expected fiscal deficit of 2.7% of gross domestic product this year, Riyadh estimates it will achieve a surplus of 90 billion riyals ($23.99 billion), or 2.5% of GDP, next year – its first surplus since it went into a deficit after oil prices crashed in 2014.

“The surpluses will be used to increase government reserves, to meet the coronavirus pandemic needs, strengthen the kingdom’s financial position, and raise its capabilities to face global shocks and crises,” Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was quoted as saying by Saudi state press agency SPA.

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The world’s biggest oil exporter plans to spend 955 billion riyals next year, a nearly 6% expenditure cut year on year, according to a budget document.

Riyadh plans to reduce military spending next year by around 10% from its 2021 estimates, the budget showed, a sign that the cost of the military conflict in neighbouring Yemen has started to ease.

Revenues jumped this year by almost 10% to 930 billion riyals from the budgeted 849 billion, driven by higher crude prices and oil production hikes as global energy demand recovered.

Next year, the kingdom expects revenues of 1.045 trillion riyals.

“We are totally now decoupling the government expenditure from the revenue”, Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan told Reuters.

“We are telling our people and the private sector or economy at large that you can plan with predictability. Budget ceilings are going to continue in a stable way regardless of how the oil price or revenues are going to happen”.

‘INVESTMENT BURDEN’

Saudi Minister of Finance Mohammed al-Jadaan gestures during an interview with Reuters at the Ministry of Finance in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, December 12, 2021. Picture taken December 12, 2021. REUTERS/Ahmed Yosri

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The largest Arab economy shrank last year as the coronavirus crisis hurt its burgeoning non-oil economic sectors, while record-low oil prices weighed on its finances, widening the 2020 budget deficit to 11.2% of GDP.

But the economy bounced back this year as COVID-19 restrictions were eased globally and domestically.

Saudi Arabia forecast 2.9% GDP growth this year followed by 7.4% growth in 2022, according to the budget.

The kingdom does not disclose the oil price it assumes to calculate its budget.

Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, had estimated it was likely basing its budget on an oil price assumption that could be as low as $50-$55 per barrel, based on previous official revenue forecasts.

“There was a 15.7% increase in government revenue for 2022 vs the pre-budget. I think the assumption is now for a price of over $70 per barrel with the sharp increase in oil price”, she said.

Saudi Arabia’s ability to maintain fiscal diligence depends partly on the increasing roles of entities like the Public Investment Fund (PIF) or the National Development Fund in backing Prince Mohammed’s ambitious investment plans.

Saudi Arabia plans more than $3 trillion in investment in the domestic economy by 2030, a target that economists have said will be tough to meet. read more

“The budget’s expected surplus in 2022 comes not only on the back of higher oil prices and production, but also on the back of scaling back COVID-related spending as well as continuing with transferring the investment burden to the state funds led by PIF”, said Mohamed Abu Basha, head of macroeconomic analysis at EFG Hermes.

($1 = 3.7513 riyals)

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Reporting by Yousef Saba, Aziz El Yaakoubi, Davide Barbuscia and Saeed Azhar; Writing by Davide Barbuscia; Editing by William Maclean, Barbara Lewis and Peter Cooney

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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US

CBO says Build Back Better will increase deficit by $367 billion not including increased tax enforcement, House to vote tonight

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The House moved closer to a final vote on Build Back Better on Thursday, hours after the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its final cost estimate of President Biden’s signature social spending plan.

The CBO said Thursday that passage of the legislation would increase the deficit by more than $367 billion over 10 years. But the estimate does not include the revenue that could be generated from increasing IRS enforcement, which the CBO suggested would be $207 billion.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen welcomed the CBO’s analysis: noting that the Treasury Department estimates that the crackdown on tax evaders would raise $400 billion, she said in a statement that the combined CBO scores, Joint Committee on Taxation estimates and her own department’s analysis “make it clear that Build Back Better is fully paid for, and in fact will reduce our nation’s debt over time by generating more than $2 trillion through reforms that ask the wealthiest Americans and large corporations to pay their fair share.”

The White House called the CBO score “good news for Democrats,” and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi immediately began moving forward with the bill. Representative Stephanie Murphy, one of the key moderate holdouts who had been waiting for the CBO score to vote, said Thursday evening that she’d vote for the bill.

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) talks to reporters during her weekly news conference in the U.S. Capitol Visitors Center on November 18, 2021 in Washington, DC. 

Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images


The CBO has been releasing estimates on individual components of the Build Back Better Act over the past few weeks, but did not address  how much money the legislation would raise, or its cost, until Thursday.

TOverall, the CBO estimates the legislation would spend$1.63 trillion. The office said changes to the tax code and other provisions would generate more than $1.26 trillion in revenue and suggested increased IRS enforcement would add another $207 billion in revenue (not included in CBO totals.

Some of the CBO figures have come in lower than what the Biden administration estimated. The cost of universal pre-K and affordable child care would cost roughly $382 billion, the agency found, compared to the bill’s line item figure of $400 billion. Prescription drug reforms would save nearly $300 billion — $50 billion more than the White House estimated. Other estimates were closer: both put affordable housing related costs at roughly $150 billion. And the CBO said expanding Medicare to include hearing would cost $36 billion, while the White House said it would be  $35 billion.

The CBO also estimated that a four-week paid leave included in the House version of the bill would cost $205 billion. That provision was not included in the revised White House framework because paid leave had been dropped from the bill but was later partially restored by lawmakers. 

The White House, which estimated its framework would cost $1.75 trillion, has argued the legislation would be fully paid for and even claimed it would reduce the deficit over time, generating more than $2.1 trillion over 10 years.

Lawmakers and the White House were eager to see the CBO’s score, particularly  after five House Democrats sent a letter to Pelosi saying they could not support the bill until they had reviewed the information and Joint Committee on Taxation to ensure the final bill was “indeed fiscally responsible.”

Senator Joe Manchin, one of the centrist holdouts in the Senate, also said he wanted to see the analysis of legislation before committing to supporting it. 

Meanwhile, the Joint Committee on Taxation estimated the bill would rake in $1.48 trillion. But its analysis did not include how much revenue increased IRS enforcement would generate. 

This has been a sticking point. Democrats have proposed giving the IRS $80 billion in an effort to ramp up tax collection from  the wealthiest Americans. The Treasury Department estimates it would raise $400 billion over a decade, making it the largest revenue-raiser in the proposal. Some organizations and lawmakers have suggested that estimate is too conservative. 

The CBO estimated the spending would generate $207 billion in new revenue, a net increase of $127 billion, far less than the Biden administration claims. Earlier this week, CBO director Phill Swagel explained ultimately the IRS would determine what additional resources would be utilized. But he said research on how effectively  increased enforcement acts deters tax evasion is mixed, so his office arrived at a number closer to the midpoint of the White House estimate. 

Another controversial component of the bill contributing to the price tag is the increase of the state and local tax deduction cap, commonly known as SALT. Some moderate House Democrats insisted an amendment be added that will increase the current SALT cap from $10,000 to $80,000. 

The Biden administration also did not include SALT in its framework. The provision is estimated to be one of the most expensive pieces of the legislation and analysis shows it vastly benefiting the wealthiest  Americans. 

While those backing increased deduction argue, the cap set as part of former President Trump’s 2017 tax law unfairly hurts their constituents, it has become a point of contention among Democrats and faces obstacles in the Senate.

Jack Turman contributed to this report.

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Sports

Ravens vs. Vikings score: Lamar Jackson rallies Baltimore from two-TD deficit, knocks off Minnesota in OT

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The Baltimore Ravens got back to their winning ways on Sunday, as they defeated the Minnesota Vikings 34-31 in overtime. It was truly a tale of two halves, as Lamar Jackson and Co. came out flat in the opening stanza. They spent a large chunk of the afternoon down double digits, but Baltimore led a furious comeback — erasing a 24-10 deficit in the second half with three straight touchdown drives. 

Even the extra period was dramatic, as Anthony Barr picked off Jackson on the Ravens’ first drive. However, Baltimore’s defense stood tall, and forced a three-and-out to give the ball back to the offense. From there, Justin Tucker kicked a game-winning 36-yard field goal.

While it wasn’t a perfect outing, Jackson was impressive. He threw for 266 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions, and also led the team in rushing with 120 yards on the ground. Baltimore’s young receivers shined on Sunday, as Marquise Brown caught nine passes for 116 yards and Rashod Bateman caught five passes for 52 yards. While Minnesota found the loss column for the second straight week, Dalvin Cook had another 100-yard game and Justin Jefferson caught three passes for 69 yards and a touchdown.

An exciting win for the Ravens and a deflating loss for the Vikings. As for what’s next, Baltimore is on a short week, as it will take on the Miami Dolphins on “Thursday Night Football.” Minnesota will stay on the road, traveling to take on Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers. 

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Sports

USMNT vs. Costa Rica score: Sergino Dest stars in attack as Americans overcome early deficit in 2-1 win

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The youngest ever team fielded by United States men’s national team in Concacaf World Cup qualifying was handed quite the trying task on Wednesday night, and they passed. Despite conceding in the first minute to Costa Rica, the Americans rallied with a goal in each half to secure a 2-1 win in Columbus, Ohio, earning three vital points. 

With so many key players missing — Christian Pulisic and Gio Reyna to name a few — Gregg Berhalter’s side responded to Sunday’s loss against Panama with arguably their most encouraging performance under the former Columbus Crew boss. While they perhaps didn’t create as many chances as they would have liked, there was a spark in this team that was absent last weekend. Despite making numerous changes to the starting lineup, the midfield of Weston McKennie, Tyler Adams and Yunus Musah helped bring much-needed stability to a game that was all USA in the second half, while defender Sergino Dest recorded an amazing goal and was involved in the second goal, which was ruled as own goal. 

Costa Rica’s star goalkeeper Keylor Navas went off at the break with what’s presumed to be an injury, and the hosts benefited on their second goal to earn their sixth point of the October window.

Here are three takeaways:

1. Dest was the difference going forward

The Barcelona defender continues to prove that he’s below average in defense and above it going forward. He was by far the most threatening player in attack, getting this absolutely incredible goal in the first half to draw level:

While showing off his flair, he got better as the game went on, despite being subbed off in the second half. He didn’t always stick in position, drifted into the middle and combined quite well with Weston McKennie. Not afraid to take his shot, he was more of a distributor in the second half, and it worked.

After a poor start to the game that saw him basically in a bad position on the goal, he, like his team, bounced back and answered the call when their backs were against the wall.

2. Navas sub fortunate for U.S.

Just before the second half started, it really felt like anybody’s game, especially because of Navas’ presence. But when he came off, it felt over. And when the USA’s best chance came, it was. Dest played Tim Weah through in the box, and the Lille man’s rifled shot hit off the post, off the goalkeeper and in. The own goal was given to goalkeeper Leonel Moreira, and I just can’t help to think that Navas would have saved this.

3. October window saved 

Six points from this window is good enough. The U.S. probably planned on at least seven, but to bounce back like they did from the loss to Panama was quite encouraging. The defenders, for the most part, looked good. The midfield was dynamic and as creative as it has been, and if there was any issue it was that young star striker Ricardo Pepi didn’t get the chances he would have wanted in this last match. But with a young team, consistency should come with time. 

The win provisionally puts the team back into first place in qualifying and gives them a bit more breathing room ahead of November, which is all you can ask for from a team missing so many key guys.

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US

As Infrastructure Bill Nears Key Vote, Deficit Takes Back Seat

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Mr. McConnell has threatened to withhold all Republican votes from a debt ceiling increase, a stance that Mr. Hollen called “part of a pattern of hypocrisy.” Republicans repeatedly raised the debt ceiling during the Trump years, even after their tax cut. But they have provoked a series of crises when a Democrat is in the White House.

Even some conservatives say Republican inconsistency is undermining the party’s case for fiscal rectitude.

“Republicans would have much more credibility on the debt ceiling argument if they weren’t about to vote to add hundreds of billions of dollars to the deficit” on the infrastructure bill, said Brian Riedl, a senior fellow at the conservative Manhattan Institute and a former economic aide to Mr. Portman.

Democrats have a decision to make in the next few days. They could add an increase in the debt ceiling to their upcoming budget resolution, ensuring that the borrowing limit could be raised without the need for any Republican votes this fall. But that option would come with political costs: to do it, Senate rules require that the provision includes a hard number for the debt ceiling increase, like $10 trillion, which Republicans would say, inaccurately, is the true cost of the social policy bill.

That is very much what Republicans want.

“I think the majority has to solve this — they control the House and the Senate and the White House,” Senator Roy Blunt of Missouri, a member of Republican leadership, told reporters this week.

If the debt ceiling is instead raised through a separate measure, the bill could simply set a date for the next debt ceiling increase, without a dollar number. But that would take Republican votes in the Senate to break a filibuster, votes Mr. McConnell has said he will not supply.

Republicans have argued that debt ceiling showdowns have long been used to force a reluctant Congress to examine the structural issues that drive up debt. The debt ceiling crisis of 2011 forced both parties to accept the Budget Control Act, which reined in spending for nearly a decade, until it lapsed under Mr. Trump.

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Business

Jamie Dimon says economic boom fueled by deficit spending, vaccines could ‘easily run into 2023’

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Jamie Dimon is bullish on the U.S. economy – at least for the next few years.

Dimon, the long-serving JPMorgan Chase CEO and chairman, sees strong growth ahead for the world’s biggest economy, thanks to the U.S. government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic that has left many consumers flush with savings, according to his annual shareholder letter.

“I have little doubt that with excess savings, new stimulus savings, huge deficit spending, more QE, a new potential infrastructure bill, a successful vaccine and euphoria around the end of the pandemic, the U.S. economy will likely boom,” Dimon said in the letter. “This boom could easily run into 2023 because all the spending could extend well into 2023.”

Dimon, who managed JPMorgan through the 2008 financial crisis, helping create the biggest U.S. bank by assets, pointed out that the magnitude of government spending during the pandemic far exceeds the response to that previous crisis. The longer-term impact of the reopening boom won’t be known until years into the future, he said, because it will take time to ascertain the quality of government spending, including President Joe Biden’s proposed $2 trillion infrastructure bill.

“Spent wisely, it will create more economic opportunity for everyone,” he said.

Dimon, 65, weighed in on a range of topics familiar to watchers of the country’s most prominent banker: He promoted JPMorgan’s efforts to create economic opportunities for Americans who have been left behind, highlighted threats to U.S. banks’ dominance from fintech and Big Tech players, and opined on public policy and the role of corporations to help bring about change.

While Dimon called stock market valuations “quite high,” he said that a multi-year boom may justify current levels, because markets are pricing in economic growth and excess savings that make their way into equities. He said there was “some froth and speculation” in parts of the market, but didn’t say where exactly.

“Conversely, in this boom scenario it’s hard to justify the price of U.S. debt (most people consider the 10-year bond as the key reference point for U.S. debt),” Dimon said. “This is because of two factors: first, the huge supply of debt that needs to be absorbed; and second, the not-unreasonable possibility that an increase in inflation will not be just temporary.”

While he is bullish for the economy’s immediate future, there are serious challenges ahead for the U.S., Dimon said. The country has been tested before – though conflicts starting with the Civil War, the Great Depression and the societal upheaval of the 1960s and 1970s, he said.

“In each case, America’s might and resiliency strengthened our position in the world, particularly in relation to our major international competitors,” Dimon said. “This time may be different.”

The past year highlighted challenges for U.S. institutions, elected officials and families, as our country’s rivals see a “nation torn and crippled by politics, as well as racial and income inequality – and a country unable to coordinate government policies (fiscal, monetary, industrial, regulatory) in any coherent way to accomplish national goals.”

The country ultimately needs to “move beyond our differences and self-interest and act for the greater good,” Dimon said. “The good news is that this is fixable.”

This story is developing. Please check back for updates.

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Sports

Chris Duarte, Oregon Ducks erase 9-point deficit to top UCLA, move into 1st place in Pac-12 with 1 game to go

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EUGENE — Oregon is back atop the Pac-12 with one game to go.

Chris Duarte had 23 points, LJ Figueroa had 18 and Eugene Omoruyi and Will Richardson each added 15 for the Ducks, who erased a nine-point deficit and closed on a 14-6 run in the final 4:06 to top UCLA, 82-74, Wednesday night at Matthew Knight Arena.

Oregon (18-5, 13-4 Pac-12) won its ninth of 10, with seven of those games coming in the last 14 days, and moves a half a game ahead of UCLA for first place in the Pac-12 with one game to play.

Jules Bernard scored a career-high 23 points and had four assists for the Bruins (17-7, 13-5), who play USC on Saturday. UO plays at Oregon State on Sunday (5 p.m., FS1).

Oregon’s five starters scored all of its 37 points in the first half but allowed Bernard to shoot 7 of 8 from the field for 15 points, the primary reason for a 30-12 UCLA edge in the paint in the first half. The Bruins shot 60% from the field and took a 39-37 lead to the break.

“He was absolutely killing us,” Oregon coach Dana Altman said. “He had 15 points on six layups (in the first half). He was getting to the rim whenever he wanted, he’s physical, but we weren’t sliding our feet.”

But the Ducks shut down Bernard down the stretch. The junior made a three-pointer to give UCLA a 56-47 lead with 13:28 to go but didn’t score again.

Oregon, which was a season-high 60.8% (31 of 51) from the field for its best shooting performance in Pac-12 play since Feb. 4, 2017 against Arizona (65.2%), wiped out a nine-point deficit (60-51) with 11:16 to go by going on a 17-6 run with seven from Duarte.

“A lot of teams wouldn’t have responded that way,” Altman said. “Very proud of the guys. I thought Will Richardson just took the game over and really made some good plays, finished some things at the basket. Our defense really tightened up.”

Altman said UO’s players told him they wanted to switch to man-to-man defense and press more down the stretch, which sped UCLA into 12 turnovers in the second half compared to just two in the first.

“I had them in the huddle and I go, ‘Fellas, we’re not getting any stops. What do you want? You become accountable; we got to get stops,’” Altman said. “They wanted to go to man and switch everything and they did a tremendous job with it, fronting the post. Will and Eric (Williams Jr.) at times, LJ, Chris, all kept it out of (Cody) Riley’s hands pretty good.

“I thought that was a big, big key. The team really bought into what they wanted to do and really took it over.”

Oregon employed its press on dead balls in the back court and its bench was as energetic as it has been all season, making in-bounds passes and backcourt pressure even harder to handle and forcing UCLA coach Mick Cronin to turn two timeouts in those situations.

When the Bruins got the ball to Riley in the second half, multiple Ducks would swarm and either close him off, force a ball or turnover and it flipped the advantage in the paint to 28-12 UO in the second half.

“We realized they were really attacking certain areas in the zone,” Omoruyi said. “As a collective (we) decided to go to our man-to-man defense because we felt like it was more effective and coach let us do us.”

Chandler Lawson came in to give Figueroa a rest with 10:50 to go and it altered the top of Oregon’s press and forced UCLA into a string of costly errors. The Ducks forced six Bruins turnovers during the 4:46 span when Lawson came in.

“We were a step behind them the whole night until Chandler Lawson gave us a big lift in our press,” Altman said. “His energy and got some hands on some balls and that length made them lob some passes. When we got deflections and turnovers, it changed the tempo of the game.”

Omoruyi intercepted a UCLA pass in the backcourt and went coast-to-coast for a basket to put Oregon up 64-62 with 6:04 to go. The Ducks never trailed again.

“We knew what they were looking at, and if we stopped something else, what they were looking at,” Omoruyi said. “I executed the read, I got the ball and I finished it.”

Riley, who had 11 points, converted a three-point play to tie it at 68-68 with 4:06 to go. Then Oregon closed the game on a 14-6 run with contributions from each of its big four.

Figueroa came off the bench after a 4:06 break and had a putback of a miss by Richardson. Omoruyi drove down the right edge of the lane and contorted himself into a running jumper to put UO up 72-68.

“I knew they were cutting off driving lanes,” he said. “I was able to adjust myself and get around, Euro step.”

Duarte drilled a three-pointer to give the Ducks their biggest lead of the game with 2:16 to play.

After two free throws by Tyger Campbell (eight assists), Richardson hit a jumper in the lane, Duarte blocked Bernard and Richardson hit a three to blow the game open.

UCLA was 55.4% (31 of 56) from the floor, the highest a Cronin team has ever shot from the field in a loss in his 18 seasons (401-190) as a head coach.

“They were just a tougher team, on both ends,” Cronin said. “Obviously the turnovers destroy you and they weren’t all against pressure. We can’t even feed the post. We throw it out of bounds or we catch it with one hand and that’s all lack of toughness.

“At winning time against high-level teams the tougher team is going to win. Whoever is tough enough to get a good shot, to take care of the ball, to sit down and get a defensive stop, that’s who is going to win the game and we’re just not there. And we got a really good team. (If) you’re going to beat a team like this on the road on senior day it’s going to take a way better defensive effort.”

The dramatic and intense win gives Oregon the lead in the conference following a gauntlet of rescheduled games, four of which were decided by four points or less.

Altman attributed it to the team’s mettle.

“Tonight, nine points, a lot of teams I think would have quit,” he said. “It wasn’t going well for us. We didn’t have much energy. But a great credit to all the guys, they turned it around.”

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