Tag Archives: Commodity/Financial Market News

Dow futures drop over 300 points as selling gathers pace after Fed minutes

U.S. stock futures slumped on Thursday, a day after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee indicated its bond buying program was on its last legs.

What’s happening

* Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average
YM00,
-0.68%
fell 327 points;

* Futures on the S&P 500
ES00,
-0.61%
lost 0.9%;

* Futures on the Nasdaq 100
NQ00,
-0.47%
retreated by 0.8%.

On Wednesday, U.S. stocks suffered their worst single session in a month. The Dow
DJIA,
-1.08%
fell 382 points, the S&P 500
SPX,
-1.07%
lost 1.1% and the Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
-0.89%
fell 0.9%.

What’s driving markets

Investors continued to be rattled by the release of the Fed minutes, even though its message — that tapering will start this year — was well choreographed in speeches and articles citing insiders ahead of the release.

“While the formula provided could in principle be consistent with a taper decision in September (particularly given the strong July employment report that came after the FOMC meeting), the overall tone of the debate – including multiple references to the delta variant – seem more consistent with a more methodical approach in which the Fed provides a clear signal in September that a taper decision is coming in November. That was and remains our call,” said economists at Evercore ISI.

Also noteworthy was a U.K. study, from the University of Oxford based on real-world data, that showed diminished effectiveness from coronavirus vaccines to the delta variant. After four to five months, the study found that two doses of the vaccine from Pfizer
PFE,
-2.20%
and BioNTech
BNTX,
-0.62%
was as effective as two Oxford-AstraZeneca
AZN,
+0.15%
jabs.

Robinhood Markets
HOOD,
+6.71%
was set to retreat after the online broker’s cautious outlook on the third quarter.

Other markets

The selling was particularly intense in Europe, where miners dived nearly 5% to send the Stoxx Europe 600
SXXP,
-1.90%
down by 2%.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury
TMUBMUSD10Y,
1.232%
fell to 1.22%.

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White House Urges OPEC to Boost Oil Output Amid Covid-19 Economic Recovery

WASHINGTON—The White House urged OPEC to boost oil production Wednesday, saying recent planned increases are insufficient as countries around the world seek to emerge from the Covid-19 pandemic.

National security adviser Jake Sullivan said in a statement that recent planned production increases by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would “not fully offset previous production cuts” made by OPEC and its oil-producing allies during the pandemic.

“At a critical moment in the global recovery, this is simply not enough,” Mr. Sullivan said.

Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, fell 0.8% to $70.04 a barrel after the White House announcement. Oil prices have experienced volatility in recent days due to concerns over the Delta variant of Covid-19.

In July, OPEC and a group of Russian-led oil producers agreed to unleash millions of barrels of crude over the next two years, committing to restore all the cuts they made at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. The group chose to move gradually, with monthly installments of new oil through the latter end of 2022.

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Barrick Gold Earnings Beat Forecasts. Its Stock Is Falling.

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Photograph by Carla Gottgens/Bloomberg

Shares of

Barrick Gold

slipped Monday morning despite beating earnings forecasts as gold prices slide.

Barrick Gold (ticker: GOLD) reported a profit of 29 cents a share, beating forecasts for 28 cents, on revenue of $2.89 billion, missing expectations for $3.06 billion. Barrick stock dropped 1% to $20.58 at 10:48 a.m. easter.

Barrick’s revenue miss hurt, but so did an overnight decline in gold prices, which saw the precious metal drops about $60 an ounce in just a few minutes. Gold dropped more than 4% but has rebounded to $1,738.40 an ounce, off 1.4% on the day.

Barrick has dropped 8.7% in 2021 after declining 13% during the past three months. It has underperformed the

S&P 500,

which has gained 18% this year after rising 5.9% during the past three months.

Write to Ben Levisohn at ben.levisohn@barrons.com

 

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Oil Prices Tumble on Worries Over China Delta Variant Outbreak

The price of oil and other key industrial commodities slid Monday after Chinese government measures to halt the spread of the Delta variant spooked investors about global energy demand.

Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, fell 4% to $67.87 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate futures—the main U.S. benchmark—were down 4.3% at $65.38 a barrel. At those prices, both gauges were set for their lowest close in around 2½ months.

The spread of Delta variant Covid-19 cases has raised alarms in China and other East Asian countries. Beijing health authorities said last week that the city would cancel all large-scale exhibitions and events for the remainder of August.

China is the world’s biggest importer of oil and “while some countries seem to be flipping to learning to live with the coronavirus, it is adopting a zero-tolerance policy” with stricter travel rules and quarantine measures, said Norbert Rücker, head of economics at Swiss private bank Julius Baer .

Customs data published over the weekend show that China imported less crude per day in July than in June and those figures were also weighing on prices, according to analysts at Dutch bank ING.

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GM Earnings Beat Expectations. Why Its Stock Is Dropping.

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General Motors stock has had a solid year. (Photo by Bill Pugliano/Getty Images)


Getty Images


General Motors

stock dropped after the auto maker beat earnings projections but raised earnings guidance less than investors hoped. The quarter won’t be enough to get the stock going.

The company reported an adjusted profit of $1.97 a share on sales of $34.2 billion, topping expectations for $1.82 in per-share earnings from $29.9 billion in sales.

Operating profit came in at $4.1 billion in the second quarter and about $8.5 billion for the first half of the year, better than the $3.4 billion and $7.8 billion Wall Street projected for the second quarter and first half of the year, respectively.

General Motors (ticker: GM) guided for $8.5 billion to $9.5 billion in the first half of 2021 earnings in mid-June. GM was able to meet its profit guidance, despite relatively high recall costs of $1.3 billion in the second quarter. The Chevy Bolt EV accounted for $800 million of that amount. In recent months, GM has had to recall more than 100,000 Bolts due to the possibility of battery fires.

The company also raised full-year operating profit guidance from a midpoint of $10.5 billion to a midpoint of $12.5 billion, implying earnings of about $4 billion in the second half of the year. Investors, however, wanted more.

What’s more, Wall Street is already projecting about $14 billion in full-year operating profit. It can be a problem for a stock when the Street gets ahead of the company.

Shares were down about 3.6% in premarket trading.

The company sounds pleased with results though. “Halfway through 2021, I’m pleased to report we’re accelerating our progress and advancing our vision of a world with zero crashes, zero emissions and zero congestion,” said CEO Mary Barra in her quarterly letter to investors and employees.

And results show progress. In North America, GM sold about 11,300 electric vehicles in the quarter, up from 9,000 in the first quarter of 2021. Operating earnings at GM’s lending unit also expanded, rising to $1.6 billion in the second quarter from $1.2 billion in the first quarter.

Still, operating profit in GM’s North America operations came in at $2.9 billion in the second quarter, down from $3.1 billion in the first quarter of the year. Earnings were hit by the recall as well as the global automotive semiconductor shortage that is constraining auto production everywhere.

GM management hosts a conference call at 10 a.m. eastern time to discuss results. Earnings guidance, the chip shortage, and recall costs will be big topics of discussion.

Shares of GM are up 39% year to date through Tuesday’s close, while the

S&P 500

and the

Dow Jones Industrial Average

have risen about 18% and 15%, respectively.

Write to allen.root@dowjones.com

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Alphabet Earnings Manage to Beat Big Expectations. The Stock Is Rising.

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Denis Charlet/AFP via Getty Images

Shares of

Alphabet

jumped in late trading Tuesday, after the company smashed investor expectations, reporting record quarterly revenue.

The Google parent reported second-quarter net income of $18.5 billion, which amounts to $27.26 a share, compared with a net profit of $7 billion, or $10.13 a share in the year ago period. Revenue rose 62% to $61.9 billion.

Wall Street’s consensus estimate was for earnings of $19.35 a share on revenue of $56.2 billion.

CFO Ruth Porat attributed the company’s success to “elevated consumer online activity” and “broad-based strength in advertiser spend.” The company reported Search and other revenue of $35.9 billion, and YouTube ad revenue of $7 billion—both ahead of investor expectations.

Traffic acquisition costs, or TAC, which are the fees Google pays to the likes of

Apple

(AAPL) for search deals, amounted to $10.9 billion in the second quarter.

Google business chief Philipp Schindler said that retail did the most to grow the company’s ad business, and that travel, financial services, media, and entertainment also were “strong contributors.”

Alphabet was widely expected to have a strong quarter, in part because the first half of 2020 was a dismal one for the digital ad market. Amid fears about the Covid-19 pandemic, many companies yanked advertising spending, which slowed or reversed the growth of several tech companies including Alphabet.

“The numbers are crazy strong, across almost every segment of the business, and they’re accelerating,” RiverPark Funds investment chief Mitch Rubin said. “On top of that, you have extraordinary expense control, which I think the market has been looking for for years.”

But the weak quarter last year meant that investor expectations were high heading into Tuesday’s afternoon of tech earnings. The digital ad giants were expected to top estimates and issue bullish guidance.

Alphabet did not issue a forecast with its earnings release. Porat said in a conference call late Tuesday that it is still too early to begin forecasting, as markets reopen, and Covid-19 cases increase around the world.

Aside from Alphabet’s ad business, Google’s Cloud computing segment reported over a 50% rise in second-quarter revenue to $4.6 billion. The cloud segment’s operating loss was trimmed to $591 million, from $1.4 billion a year ago. That loss was significantly less than analysts expected, though Porat said the company continues to aggressively in the business.

Because Alphabet has been trying to catch up with Amazon.com (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) in the cloud business, investors had expected Google Cloud to keep losing big money, Rubin said. Cloud computing, he said, is a high-margin industry, and if Google can flip its cloud segment toward profitability, it could boost the company’s bottom line.

“When you turn the cloud to profit, earnings at the company skyrocket,” he said.

Alphabet gave investors another reason to cheer, saying the board had given the company the option to repurchase Class A shares in addition to the Class C stock that was part of its existing buyback program. In April, the company authorized an additional $50 billion buyback of class C shares.

Alphabet shares were up 3.1% in after-hours trading. The stock closed down 1.6%, to $2,638, in regular trading Tuesday.

Alphabet is up 51% this year, while the

S&P 500

index is up 18%.

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Chinese Tech Stock Selloff Deepens

HONG KONG—A massive selloff in Chinese technology stocks accelerated on Tuesday, as investors unnerved by China’s widening crackdown on Internet companies and other industries sold down their holdings of many popular stocks.

The Hang Seng Tech Index in Hong Kong, which includes stocks such as Tencent Holdings Ltd. and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. , crashed 8%, registering its third day of declines. The city’s flagship Hang Seng Index dropped 4.2%.

In mainland China, the CSI 300 benchmark retreated 3.5%. The Chinese yuan weakened against the dollar, with the offshore currency trading beyond 6.50 yuan per dollar, versus a previous close of 6.4834, according to FactSet.

Among big individual stocks, online gaming and social-media giant Tencent fell 9%. The selloff pushed Tencent’s market value down to about $544 billion, according to FactSet—meaning it has lost about $390 billion of market capitalization since peaking in mid-February. Hong Kong-listed shares in Alibaba, China’s biggest e-commerce company, also lost ground, falling 6.4%.

China is months into a campaign to rein in big tech that has spanned issues such as data security, monopolistic behavior and financial stability. The regulatory clampdown, which has entangled companies such as Alibaba, its sister company Ant Group Co., and the ride-hailing giant Didi Global Inc., continues to unfold.

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Stock Futures Point to Dow Extending Rebound

Stock futures edged higher Wednesday, suggesting major indexes will extend their rebound following a volatile stretch of trading sparked by worries about the spread of coronavirus.

Futures for the S&P 500 ticked up 0.3% a day after the broad market gauge posted its biggest one-day gain since late March. The advance almost unwound the S&P 500’s steep drop from Monday and pushed the index to within 1.5% of its record closing high.

Contracts for the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5% Wednesday, suggesting that the blue-chips index will add to its rebound at the open and inch closer to its all-time high. Futures on the technology-focused Nasdaq-100 edged down 0.1%.

Investors are putting concerns about the economic effects of the Delta variant to one side, though markets are expected to remain jittery heading into the peak summer vacation period. A banner start to the earnings season among the biggest U.S. companies is helping buoy sentiment. Many money managers also see few other places to deploy cash with yields on government and corporate bonds trading at depressed levels.

“The outlook in an absolute sense is still pretty good: This is a rebound for a big recession,” said

Jonas Goltermann,

senior markets economist at Capital Economics. “It is hard to justify big falls.”

Still, Mr. Goltermann added that “the past month [has] not been smooth sailing and it might take time to get back to something more calm.” He expects yields on government bonds to rise toward their March highs and for investors to shift money back into stocks that benefit from the reopening of the economy, albeit with less alacrity than at the start of the year.

Ahead of the bell in New York,

Chipotle Mexican Grill

climbed more than 5% premarket after reporting sales that blew past pre-pandemic levels. United Airlines added 1.7% after saying it expected to make a profit before taxes in the third quarter thanks to a recovery in travel.

Johnson & Johnson’s

second-quarter revenue grew by 27%, giving shares of the medical company a 1.1% boost in premarket trading.

Harley-Davidson

shares gained 3.5% after the motorcycle-maker turned a profit in the second quarter.

Texas Instruments,

Whirlpool

and

Equifax

are scheduled to post results after markets close. Through Tuesday, 85% of S&P 500 companies that had filed quarterly results topped analysts’ expectations, according to FactSet

The yield on 10-year Treasury notes ticked up to 1.248% from 1.208% Tuesday. Yields move in the opposite direction to bond prices, and have skidded in recent weeks in a sign of waning concerns about a prolonged overshoot in inflation.

“Consumers are going to remain at least moderately cautious because of the spread of Delta everywhere,” said Christopher Jeffery, head of inflation and rates strategy at Legal & General Investment Management. “It is really hard to think the U.K. template isn’t at least going to be partly followed in the U.S. and Europe,” he added, referring to a spike in cases in the U.K.

Still, Mr. Jeffery is upbeat about the outlook for stocks. “It is hard for us to get structurally negative on equities” given the strong start to earnings season, he said.

In overseas markets, the Stoxx Europe 600 jumped 1.3%, buoyed by shares of travel, leisure and retail companies.

Among individual stocks,

British Airways

owner International Consolidated Airlines Group, airline

EasyJet

and cruise-operator Carnival all gained more than 3%. Next rose over 8% after the British clothes retailer raised its profit guidance and declared a special dividend.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.6% by the close of trading and the Shanghai Composite Index added 0.7%.

Markets are expected to remain jittery heading into the peak summer vacation period.



Photo:

Richard Drew/Associated Press

Write to Joe Wallace at Joe.Wallace@wsj.com

Copyright ©2021 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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The cost of living posts biggest surge since 2008, U.S. CPI shows, as inflation spreads through economy

The numbers: The cost of living leaped in June by the largest amount since 2008 as inflation spread more broadly through the U.S. economy, raising fresh questions about whether the spike in prices will subside as quickly as the Federal Reserve predicts.

The consumer price index climbed 0.9% last month, the government said Tuesday. The cost of used cars accounted for more than one-third of the increase, but prices for food, energy, clothing, plane tickets and hotels also rose sharply.

The increase easily exceeded forecasts. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had estimated a 0.5% advance.

The rate of inflation in the 12 months ended in June climbed to 5.4% from 5%. The last time prices rose that fast was in 2008, when oil hit a record $150 a barrel.

Another closely watched measure of inflation that omits volatile food and energy also rose 0.9% In June. The 12-month rate increased to 4.5% from 3.8% and stood at a 29-year high.

This core rate is closely followed by economists as a more accurate measure of underlying inflation.

Read: Higher U.S. inflation isn’t going away just yet. Here’s why

Big picture: The rapid recovery in the economy has had an unwanted side-affect: higher inflation.

Businesses can’t get enough supplies or labor to keep up with surging sales, forcing them to pay higher prices for almost everything. In turn, they are trying to pass those extra costs onto customers.

Read: Job openings hit record 9.2 million, but workers aren’t easy to find

The Federal Reserve has insisted for months that widespread shortages will fade away once the U.S. and global economies return to normal.

Ditto for inflation. The central bank has repeatedly referred to the sharp increase in prices as “transitory” and predicted inflation would taper off toward its 2% target by next year, using its preferred PCE price barometer.

Yet even the Fed admits it was caught off guard by how high inflation has risen. There’s a risk inflation could stay higher for longer than it expected, according to minutes of the Fed’s most recent strategy session.

Read: Fed admits inflation rose much higher than expected, but it still insists price increases are temporary

So far most investors have been unruffled, though the latest CPI is likely to stoke fresh worries.

Key details: The cost of used vehicles soared a record 10.5% in June following outsized gains of 7.3% in May and 10% in April. That category alone accounted for more than one-third of the increase in overall consumer prices last month.

These price increases won’t last long, however. Automakers are rushing to produce more new cars and trucks and eventually the market for used vehicles will revert to normal.

The cost of gasoline also rose 2.5% last month and was another big contributor to inflation. Gas prices are up 45% in the past year.

More worrisome was the largest increase in food prices since 2011, excluding the first few months of the pandemic. Higher food prices suggest some inflation is spreading more broadly through the economy.

Still, much of the increase in consumer prices last month was concentrated in goods and services whose prices fell sharply in the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic last year. Not just used vehicles, but airfares, hotels and restaurant menus.

These price increases are likely to subside soon, giving support to the Fed’s argument that the surge in inflation will prove temporary.

The cost of two other major consumer expenses, shelter and medical care, have also been rather tame. Rents have risen less than 2% in the past year and the cost of medical care has increased less than 1%.

What they are saying? “The spike in inflation still looks to be primarily Covid-related and temporary as outliers continue to drive much of the upward push in prices,” said Nationwide senior economist Ben Ayers. “But the effects of the recent jump could linger for consumers for some time with above-average costs extending into 2022.”

“Is the ‘transitory’ debate over?” asked senior economist Jennifer Lee of BMO Capital Markets. “The answer is no, the transitory debate is far from over. In fact, it got a little hotter.”

Market reaction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
-0.20%
and S&P 500
SPX,
+0.03%
were fell slightly in Tuesday trades. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury
TMUBMUSD10Y,
1.356%
note was little changed, however.

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U.A.E. Pushes to Produce More Crude, Creating OPEC Deadlock

Behind the standoff inside OPEC over whether to boost oil production is a key cartel member with a new strategy: sell as much crude as possible before demand dries up.

The United Arab Emirates’s strategy, as described by officials familiar with the matter, represents one of the most significant shifts in oil policy by a major Mideast petrostate. For years, the region’s oil-producing governments have said they aren’t worried about finding crude buyers far into the future. The U.A.E., which holds some of the world’s largest untapped crude reserves, is breaking from that orthodoxy, according to people familiar with the strategy.

“This is the time to maximize the value of the country’s hydrocarbon resources, while they have value,” said a person briefed on the U.A.E.’s strategy. “The aim of the investment is to generate revenue for the diversification of the economy, both for investment in new energy and, as importantly, in new revenue streams.”

The country isn’t worried about a sudden drop in demand, and expects to have buyers for its crude for decades. However, people familiar with the new tack say the country wants to pump and sell as much as it can now, when demand and prices are strong. Proceeds will help it wean its economy off oil.

“Market share is a key factor here,” said a senior U.A.E. oil executive. “We want a bigger market share, to monetize as much as we can from our reserves, especially when we have spent billions developing them.”

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