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Gammons, Stark and Rosenthal on the Hall of Fame results, and why Scott Rolen’s election mattered

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Going into the final day of Hall of Fame voting, public balloting showed there was a real chance that the BBWAA would not elect a player for the second time in three years. Ultimately, Scott Rolen got in with 76.3 percent of the vote, while not electing Todd Helton (72.2 percent) and Billy Wagner (68.1 percent) who were close behind. This was the first election in a decade not to be dominated by the talk surrounding Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, but a series of other issues emerged as the Hall and the voting process move into a new era.

To better understand the results and what’s ahead, The Athletic brought together three of its most esteemed writers — Jayson Stark, Ken Rosenthal and Peter Gammons — to discuss the voting and look ahead at what may come for the Hall and its candidates in the next few years. Stark and Gammons are both recipients of the BBWAA Career Excellence Award, the highest honor for baseball writers, and are recognized in a permanent exhibit at the Hall of Fame itself.

1. Scott Rolen got 10.2 percent of the vote in his first year. And by his sixth he was getting elected. Is that an indictment of the process or a validation of how hard it should be to get elected?

Stark: My Twitter timeline has been full of people telling me no player should ever be a Hall of Famer if he once got 10 percent of the vote. C’mon. That’s ridiculous.

First off, it’s supposed to be hard to get elected to the Hall of Fame.

Second, Rolen’s first year on the ballot might have been the most loaded ballot ever. There were seven players on that ballot who eventually got elected by the writers, plus Fred McGriff, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling — and Billy Wagner, Andruw Jones, Gary Sheffield and Jeff Kent. We only have 10 slots. So it was pretty much impossible to figure out who should fill them in that election.

And finally, one of my favorite things about Hall of Fame voting is that not every journey to 75 percent is the same. That journey can provide a vehicle for thought, reflection, perspective and debate. And in many ways, that’s the best part about being a Hall of Fame voter. I love all of that.

Rosenthal: Rolen going from 10.2 percent of the vote to the necessary 75 percent for election in six years is not an indictment of the process. It’s more a reflection of two things. First, the crowded ballot that hampered a number of candidates in recent years. And second, our ability to better measure and understand the value of gifted all-around players than voters in the past.

If anything, the crowded ballot was an indictment of the process, the restriction on only voting for 10 players and the decision by the Hall in 2014 to reduce a player’s eligibility from 15 years to 10. Several strong candidates dropped off the ballot as a result, failing to get the minimum 5 percent of the vote. Others, like Rolen, did not get the support they deserved in their early years of eligibility.

The encouraging part of Rolen’s election is the recognition that not all Hall of Famers require the fabled Black Ink, years of leading the league in several categories. I know some fans did not necessarily perceive him as a Hall of Famer when he played. I’m not sure I did, either. But when considering the entirety of his career, I found it a pretty easy call. He was an all-time great at an under-represented position, third base.

Gammons: That Scott Rolen is a Hall of Famer by five votes is an anthem to what the road to Cooperstown represents. I think back to 1997, talking to then-Phillies general manager Lee Thomas about two players whose first full seasons came that year. One was Rolen. The other was Nomar Garciaparra. “Some day,” Thomas said, “we may remember that we watched two Hall of Famers begin journeys to Cooperstown.”

For Garciaparra, the injuries began in 2001, taking him off that Hall of Fame track. At the 2004 trading deadline, he was traded to the Cubs, Orlando Cabrera took the Boston shortstop job, and Garciaparra became an afterthought as the Red Sox won the World Series.

Rolen had his share of injuries too, but he managed to play 17 major league seasons with four teams, earn eight Gold Gloves and mash 316 home runs. Another future Hall of Famer who began his major league career as a third baseman, Jeff Bagwell, said of playing against him that “it’s hard hitting when there’s an office building playing third.”

There are many of us who believe Rolen is not simply a no-doubt member of what Tom Seaver called “the most exclusive club in America,” but is one of the 10 best third basemen to ever play the game. Garciaparra was on track to be that good, too. He got hurt. Players get hurt, great players. Don Mattingly had a congenital back condition that thus far has cost him a plaque. Bobby Grich hurt his back lifting an air conditioner. The game is tough enough; playing it on Scott Rolen’s level for 17 years is unimaginably tough.

Rolen’s election is historic in terms of what it says about the voting process itself, and the electorate. Rolen was never an MVP, and his page on Baseball Reference isn’t a blur of black ink. He wasn’t elected on traditional offensive stats. He joins the Hall because he was a great all-around player — a 235-pound giant who could run the bases, make perfect throws on 5-4-3 double plays, and take out second basemen on potential double plays.

What made Rolen’s 2022-23 jump from 63.2 percent of the ballots to the all-important 75 percent so uncertain is the difficulty of defining exactly what a Hall of Famer is. Some love the offensive numbers. Some love Wins Above Replacement because it takes defense and the whole game into consideration, which would seem to help Andruw Jones. Billy Wagner is the most difficult pitcher to hit in baseball history. But even in this era when bullpens are such an invaluable and inescapable part of championship teams, some do not consider relievers to be whole pitchers.

Fortunately, we are finally moving past the Steroid Era, passing such decisions on to Veterans Committees in the next few elections. The fact that Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens — two of the greatest players ever — were not on the ballot cleared room and put Wagner, Todd Helton and Jones on track to stand at the podium in Cooperstown.

2. Which player didn’t get a lot of support on this ballot who you think deserves more? (That can include players who didn’t get 5 percent.)


Jeff Kent is the kind of candidate who could be viewed favorably by one of the Hall of Fame’s committees. (Jed Jacobsohn / Allsport)

Stark: Am I allowed to say Jeff Kent deserved more love, even though he’s now off our ballot? I never could figure out why it took him seven years on the ballot just to get above 20 percent. And now he’s off without ever reaching 50 percent?

I used to say McGriff was the most criminally undersupported candidate in my time as a voter. I’m now handing that crown to Kent. As I wrote in my column explaining my ballot, I always look for players with a claim to historic greatness. And it’s so easy to argue that Kent is the most dominant offensive second baseman of modern times. He has something for everybody.

For the old-school crowd: the most home runs and RBIs by any second baseman in history. For the new-age crowd: the highest slugging percentage by any second baseman in the live-ball era — plus a .500 slugging percentage in the postseason, over 43 games (not a small sample), and some incredible October moments. As I wrote in my piece on the five things we learned from this election, nobody feels like a more slam-dunk choice to get elected by the Contemporary Era committee in a few years than Kent does.

Rosenthal: Gary Sheffield deserves more support, and as Jayson noted in his Hall of Fame wrap-up, he’s running out of time. While Sheff jumped a healthy 15.6 percentage points, he’s still only at 55 percent, with only one year left on the ballot. A 20 percent jump in a stronger class next year would seem … unlikely.

A former player, a contemporary of Sheffield’s, texted me this morning, saying, “the Sheff defense argument is maddening.” The former player’s point: Sheffield, for better or worse, actually played defense. Edgar Martinez, on the other hand, barely was out in the field, whether due to health or lack of skill. “Can’t hold it against Sheff if it wasn’t held against Edgar,” the former player said. “And that is where WAR comes up short.”

Some voters probably demur on Sheffield because of what he said was an inadvertent use of PEDs before and during the 2002 season. Each voter is entitled to his or her opinion on that subject, but we’ve already elected a number of alleged PED users. Sheffield hit 509 home runs and had a career OPS+ 40 percent above league average. Ken Griffey Jr. was a mere 36 percent above.

Gammons: Now that Sheffield is up over 55 percent before his final year on the ballot, he has a slim chance. His candidacy is burdened by a chemical called The Clear he bought from BALCO, but he never denied getting it, he denied knowing it was a steroid. He went on to hit 509 home runs, and with one of the fiercest swings in the game had 304 more walks than strikeouts in his 2,576-game career. Perspective? The only players who hit 500 homers and had fewer strikeouts are Ted Williams and Mel Ott. When his career ended, Sheffield went on to be a player agent. He wasn’t Rolen; he was a basher who didn’t strike out.

Carlos Beltrán will make it in the next year or two as the 2017 Astros scandal recedes further into the past. There is absolutely no questioning that he is a Hall of Fame performer. He is one of five players to finish with 400 homers and 300 stolen bases, alongside Bonds, Willie Mays, Alex Rodriguez and Andre Dawson. He has the highest stolen base success rate (86.8 percent) in history. His 1.021 career postseason OPS is topped only by Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig and George Brett. Reliability and availability are what Buck Showalter calls “the sixth tool;” Beltrán played center field in 1,312 games and started 1,306 from 2001-10. Beltrán has devoted much of his life to his academy, to helping young players in Puerto Rico who might have trouble finding the money and schooling to develop and either be drafted or go to a college in the United States.

So if admission to the Hall of Fame can be denied by what is considered “wrong” or “cheating,” can we consider what a player has given the game, and if he leaves the baseball world better than we found it, can we then take that as an addition to OPS+?

3. The writers have only elected two center fielders in the last 40 years: Ken Griffey Jr. and Kirby Puckett. We have three of them still on this ballot: Carlos Beltrán, Andruw Jones and Torii Hunter. Why has it been so tough for these center fielders — and more (Jim Edmonds, Bernie Williams, etc.) — to get elected? And how many of the three guys on this ballot will eventually make it?

Stark: I first realized that center field was a different position from all the other positions over a decade ago, when I was working on the center-field chapter in my Stark Truth book, on the most overrated and underrated players in history. For a while there, I thought it would be impossible to make a case for any great center fielder as “overrated” because they were all legends! Mays, Cobb, Mantle, Griffey, DiMaggio, etc. They set this high jump bar so high, it’s hard for anyone to clear it.

But I think Beltrán will get elected one of these years, based on what we saw in this election. As I wrote in my Five Takeaways column, the most important thing we saw there was how many voters there were who voted for him but were not supporters of the PED crowd. That tells me he’s in great position to pick up steam.

And it’s hard not to think Andruw Jones makes it at some point, too. Heck, this guy has piled up almost 200 new votes over the last four elections. So even though I haven’t been one of those, as I explained in my ballot column, I’m always open-minded about examining players like him over and over.

I do feel badly that Torii Hunter hasn’t fared better, though. I think he falls below the Hall of Fame line. But he was as fun to watch play as any center fielder of his generation. And if we had a Hall of Fame for guys who found joy in playing baseball, he’d be a first-ballot pick!

Rosenthal: Our treatment of center fielders really bothers me. At a time when voters supposedly are assigning greater weight to defensive value, how is it that we are not honoring more players at a critical up-the-middle position?

The crowded ballot during the 2010s was part of the problem. Jim Edmonds fell off the ballot after one year despite eight Gold Gloves and 393 homers. Kenny Lofton also was one-and-done even though his 622 stolen bases rank 15th all-time. Bernie Williams lasted only two years despite his .850 career OPS in 545 (!) career plate appearances in the postseason.


Jim Edmonds was known as much for his defense as his offense. (Scott Cunningham / Getty Images)

Are all of those players Hall of Famers? Maybe not, though Edmonds, in particular, should get a long look from the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee. All of them, though, deserved greater consideration. Absolutely. The eventual elections of Jones and Beltrán should help reverse the trend. I’m not sure Hunter is quite at their level. But he warrants deeper examination, too.

Gammons: When Andruw Jones’ name is on the ballot, how can that not be something to think about? I think about Dale Murphy, and wish somehow, somewhere, there is a place in the Hall for a plaque remembering him. In spring training, 1977, I saw him make a throw to second base that Barry Bonnell caught on the fly in center field. He went from catcher to first base to right field to center, in 1981-90 started more games in center than anyone but Lloyd Moseby, hit 398 homers, won two MVPs, started all 162 games every year from 1982 to 1985, and in 1988 was honored by Sports Illustrated in its Athlete of the Year issue with those from other sports with the cover, “Athletes Who Care.”

OPS+, WAR, Athletes who care. Problem is, too many of us have too many ideas of what it means to be a Hall of Famer.

4. Next year looks like a fascinating election, with Adrián Beltré, Joe Mauer and Chase Utley (among others) debuting on the ballot. How many of those guys do you think will get elected — eventually if not next year?

Stark: I think all three will get elected! Not next year, because I think we’ve got a Beltré/Helton/Wagner trifecta almost locked up. So I obviously see Beltré as the easiest first-ballot Hall of Famer since Derek Jeter. It would take some serious overthinking not to vote for a guy with five Gold Gloves and 3,166 hits. So he’s not in debate.

Mauer might be in the short term. But I think once the voters really understand that his case is not just as a catcher, but as one of the greatest-hitting catchers ever, it will mean that they’ll put less weight on the first-baseman portion of his career. Once that happens, he should zoom up the board.

And then there’s Utley. He’s a sabermetric cult hero, right? So maybe once upon a time, 1,885 hits would have disqualified him. But I think we live in a very different time. Over the next 10 years, wouldn’t you guys bet on this voting being overwhelmingly dominated by data-driven thinking? I would. So who on this ballot would benefit from that thinking more than Utley? Plus, he should get bonus points for finding more innovative ways to contribute to winning — for two great teams (Phillies and Dodgers) — than any player I’ve ever been around. And I mean that. Sorry, Derek!

Rosenthal: Beltré is a no-question, first-ballot Hall of Famer. He hit 477 homers and compiled 3,166 hits while making 94.5 percent of his career starts at third base and playing elite defense at the position. He was a model player and model teammate, all but impossible to pull out of the lineup, better in his 30s than in his 20s. An all-time favorite for many of us who covered his career.

Utley will face a more difficult path. He played almost 1,000 fewer games than Beltré and finished with 1,885 hits. The BBWAA has yet to elect a post-1960 expansion candidate with fewer than 2,000 hits to the Hall. Tony Oliva, the only such player to make it, was honored by the Golden Days Era Committee (Worth noting: Andruw Jones and Edmonds also had fewer than 2,000).


Chase Utley lacks the counting stats of most Hall of Famers, but his impact was significant. (Jeff Gross / Getty Images)

Yet, while Utley never won a Gold Glove at second base or finished higher than seventh in an MVP vote, there was something about him — a special brand of talent, toughness and intelligence that teammates and opponents revered. Maybe his intangibles aren’t enough. Maybe if I feel that strongly about him, I should feel more strongly about his double-play partner, Jimmy Rollins, who had 2,455 hits and won an MVP, but has yet to receive my vote. These are all good questions!

Mauer, too, will be a difficult call for some. His first 10 seasons as a primary catcher were Cooperstown-worthy. His final five seasons as a first baseman were not. But one of the first things I look for in a Hall of Famer is 10 years of dominance. Mauer achieved that. His slash line as a catcher was .328/.408/.481. He won an MVP, three Gold Gloves and three batting titles, the most of any catcher. Maybe he won’t get in right away. But he should get in.

Gammons: One of the most striking takeaways from the MLB Network presentation Tuesday was the potential shift from a time when voters were dubious of the majority of candidates, to one where in 2023 it is clear that many voters were looking for players whose boxes they could check on the ballot. Todd Helton, Wagner, Jones and Beltrán all could cross the 75th parallel. Beltré is seemingly a first-ballot walk-in; 3,166 hits, 477 home runs, a 93.5 WAR that’s third among all-time third basemen behind Eddie Matthews and Mike Schmidt, an amazing snap-flip throw and the ability to drop to one knee and hit 400-foot homers.

The other strong candidates who may take two to eight ballots are Mauer and Utley. Mauer’s age 26-30 years were historic, with an MVP and three batting titles in five years, but the physical wear of catching every day and the abuse a big catcher takes with foul tips and concussions eventually forced him to first base. Utley’s numbers may take a while to resonate, but few players in this century have been more respected, his 64.5 WAR is fringe Hall of Fame-worthy and anyone who ever played with him will recall that in his career he never arrived at the park thinking about anything but what he could do to help his team win that day.

Then one adds David Wright and Matt Holliday and remembers they were not only great players, but left the game better than they found it. Wright likely doesn’t have the Rolen or Beltré or Chipper Jones numbers to get 75 percent from the writers, but as with Mattingly and Garciaparra, we are reminded just how hard it is to have the human body hold up for 15 productive seasons.

Which reinforces that voting for Rolen was absolutely the right thing to do.

(Top photo of Rolen: Ezra O. Shaw / Allsport)



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Sports

Baseball Hall of Fame election: 5 takeaways from Scott Rolen’s triumph and a historic vote

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COOPERSTOWN, N.Y. — Some Hall of Fame third basemen make it easy. George Brett cruised into the Hall with 98 percent of the vote. Chipper Jones was never in doubt, with 97 percent. Mike Schmidt was just behind them at 96.5 percent. They all breezed into Cooperstown on the first ballot. No fuss. No muss. No suspense.

And then there was Scott Rolen.

He didn’t exactly cruise into the Hall on a stunning Tuesday evening. He certainly didn’t breeze. But when the ballot counting was finally complete, he had just enough votes to become the newest Hall of Famer.

Only five players in the history of the annual Hall balloting had ever cleared the 75 percent bar by five votes or fewer. But Tuesday, Rolen slithered over that line by exactly five.

It was the smallest margin since Pudge Rodriguez made it by four in 2017. And the only other player in the last 35 elections to eek in by this slim a margin was Ferguson Jenkins, by one vote, in 1991. So maybe history will show that Rolen attracted “only” 76.3 percent of the vote. But it was enough — to change his whole life.

Rolen single-handedly saved us from the second shutout in the last three elections by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. But he almost had company.

There was Todd Helton (72.2 percent), who almost made an unprecedented leap from 52.0 percent last year to election, but wound up missing by only 11 votes. And right behind was Billy Wagner, who made a massive jump to 68.1 percent, leaving him 27 votes short.

They’re both now seemingly on the verge of election. But at least they’re not stuck alongside Rolen, gridlocked in a ballot traffic jam that nearly resulted in another shutout and another seriously overcrowded ballot next year.

Nevertheless, this still makes just two players elected by the writers (Rolen and David Ortiz) in the last three years. And that ties the record for any three-year period since the dawn of yearly elections in 1966. The other periods with two were from 1966 to 1968 (Ted Williams, Joe Medwick), 1994-96 (Steve Carlton, Mike Schmidt) and 1996-98 (Phil Niekro, Don Sutton).

But now that we’ve got those pesky details out of the way, what did this election tell us about Rolen’s candidacy — and about some of the players who didn’t get elected? Thanks for asking. I can help with that, with this edition of five things we learned from the 2023 Hall of Fame election.

1. The Scott Rolen bandwagon had just enough gas in the tank


Scott Rolen (Jonathan Daniel / Getty Images)

I’ve been a Hall of Fame voter for a long time. I’ve always had a theory about elections like this one. It almost turned out to be totally bogus, but in the end, it held true again.

As voters, we sometimes find ourselves with a choice — between pitching a shutout or listening to that voice in our head that says it’s always better to elect somebody. And when those sorts of elections come along, we have a long history of looking at the most electable candidate and deciding: I’m voting for That Guy!

I think that happened last year with Ortiz … and in 2012 with Barry Larkin … and 2010 with Andre Dawson … and, hey, I could give you a half-dozen more examples. But here’s why I mention it — because …

That came dangerously close to not happening this year, with Rolen.

Heading into this election, he seemed so perfectly positioned to ride that Let’s Elect Somebody wave. He was only 12 percentage points away after last year. All he needed was another 50 votes or so. There was no reason to think it would be this close. But now that we’ve seen how the votes lined up, it’s easier to dig in on why.

It’s hard to add 200 votes in four years. As recently as the 2019 election, there were “only” 73 voters (17.2 percent) voting for Rolen. Then he hopped on the Larry Walker/Edgar Martinez Hot Candidate Expressway — and jumped by 18 percentage points, 17 percentage points and 10 percentage points over the next three elections. So among candidates who remained on the ballot, he had three years in a row in which nobody was adding more votes than him. I can’t find anyone who ever did that four elections in a row. After all, there are only so many votes to add.

The Ortiz/Bonds/Clemens/Schilling exit didn’t help him much. When Ortiz, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling waved sayonara to this process after last year, it meant the 1,055 ballot slots they took up in 2022 were officially up for grabs. That was great news for Helton, Wagner and others. But it didn’t help Rolen anywhere near as much as those guys — and why not? Because, according to data gathered by the brilliant Hall election analyst Jason Sardell, almost all of the Ortiz/Bonds/Clemens/Schilling voters were already voting for him.

He had to depend on the “Old School” voting crowd. Another thing I learned from Sardell: The key to close elections is often the Old School/Small Hall voters, a group that isn’t big on analytics and can be notoriously hard to crack. Of the 51 public voters who fit that definition last year and made their ballots public, only 39 percent were voting for Rolen this year.

On one hand, that was second only to Billy Wagner (43 percent) among all the candidates on this ballot. On the other, compare that with Ortiz, who pulled in 68 percent from that crowd last year. Edgar Martinez was at 62 percent from that group the year he made it. Larry Walker reeled in 57 percent of them. I’m not sure why an old-school type player like Rolen had so much trouble connecting with old-school voters. But that nearly became an election-swinging factor this year.

Fortunately for him, though, he attracted just enough of those votes to soar above that 75 percent line. And because he did, he wound up following almost an identical path to Mike Mussina, who also was elected in his sixth year on the ballot, in 2019.

Year Mussina PCT Rolen PCT

Year 2

24.6%

17.2%

Year 3

43.0%

35.3%

Year 4

51.8% 

52.9%

Year 5

63.5% 

63.2%

Year 6

76.7%* 

76.3%*

 (*elected)

2. Four historic leaps — by guys not named Rolen


Todd Helton (Brian Bahr / Allsport via Getty Images)

A funny thing happened to four other guys on this ballot while we were busy fixating on Rolen. Todd Helton, Billy Wagner, Gary Sheffield and Andruw Jones went flying up the Big Board.

Player Increase 2022 2023

Helton

20.2 percentage points

52.0%

72.2%

Wagner

17.1 percentage points

51.0%

68.1%

Jones

16.7 percentage points

41.4 %

58.1%

Sheffield

15.6 percentage points

40.6%

55.0%

As a longtime student of Hall of Fame voting trends, I was blown away by that fiery ball in the Hall of Fame sky. Why? Because you don’t see that much. By which I mean ever.

I couldn’t recall an election in which four players in their voting tier — who had already crossed the 40 percent line (or higher) — saw their vote totals rocket upward at a level like that. So I double-checked with my friends from STATS Perform. They confirmed that has never happened.

The Hall of Fame started holding annual elections more than half a century ago. Never, in any previous election, had more than two players each jumped by at least 15 percentage points after entering that election with a floor as high as this group.

The previous record was set in 2017, when Edgar Martinez and Tim Raines reeled off gains of 15.2 percentage points and 16.2 percentage points, respectively, with Raines getting elected.

But in this election, we somehow had four? How did that happen? Mostly, it happened because the ballot departures of Ortiz, Bonds, Clemens and Schilling opened up those 1,055 ballot slots we mentioned earlier. And Helton, Wagner, Jones and Sheffield were delighted to fill them.

Sardell was able to pinpoint exactly where those new votes were coming from. At last look, 53 percent of Helton’s added public votes were from writers who filled up all 10 slots on their ballots last year (meaning they previously didn’t have room to include him). Same for Jones (59 percent), Sheffield (52 percent) and Wagner (59 percent).

But that wasn’t an option for Rolen, who picked up only 14 percent of his new votes from that group. Why? Because, as we said earlier, those voters were mostly already voting for him.

So that breakdown is fascinating in and of itself. But wait a minute. I think we might be burying the most important part:

We now have to take a whole new view of the electability of these four guys. So let’s do that.

Helton: He almost did something that has never been done: Leap from 52 percent last year to election the next. But even though he came up nine votes short, he’s now at 72.2 percent, with five years left on the ballot. So it’s time for him to start renting a bunch of Vrbos in Cooperstown in July 2024, because he’ll be giving a speech! Over the last 50 elections, you know how many players have gotten this close within their first five years on the ballot and not been elected the next year? Right you are. Not a one (11 for 11).

Wagner: A 17.1 percentage point surge in one year? Incredible. Wagner’s big move should command our attention for two reasons. One is, it’s the largest year-to-year jump by any reliever ever — topping a 15.5 percentage point leap by Rollie Fingers in 1992. The other is, Wagner is now at 68.1 percent, with two years left on the ballot. So he’d have to make the wrong kind of history to not get elected in one of those two years.

Five previous relievers — Trevor Hoffman, Goose Gossage, Bruce Sutter, Hoyt Wilhelm and Fingers — crossed the 60 percent barrier with at least as many years left on the ballot as Wagner has. All five of them got elected within two years. They apparently now have a 100 mph left-handed smokeballer ready to join them one of these July afternoons.

Jones: Four years ago, who, other than his immediate family members, would have envisioned Andruw Jones closing in on the 60 percent barrier? His first two years on the ballot, in 2018 and ’19, he got 7.3 percent and 7.5 percent of the vote, respectively. That’s 31 votes the first year, 32 the second. That’s not your typical harbinger of a trip to the plaque gallery.

But Jones has since added another 194 votes — so he, too, is now positioned for election some day. He has four years to pick up another 100 votes or so. And if he does, he’ll become the first player in the history of the modern voting system to go from less than 8 percent in Year 1 to later getting elected by the writers. I guess it wouldn’t be the first time he covered more ground than your average center fielder. Right?

Sheffield: Meanwhile, Sheffield has made a similar ride up the election elevator, from 13.6 percent in 2018 to 55 percent this year. But he’s the one guy on this list we wouldn’t advise betting on eventually getting the call. This was his ninth orbit on this ballot. So he’s down to one shot left. Since he was at only 40.6 percent a year ago, his unlikely path to election would be via a 34.4 percentage point bungee jump over his final two go-rounds on this ballot.

Only three players in the history of this election have ever done that:

Luis Aparicio, 1983-84 — +42.7%
Larry Walker, 2019-20 — +42.5%
Barry Larkin, 2011-12 — +34.8%

But of that group, just Walker was down to his final two elections before he caught fire. And it’s hard to envision anybody with ties to performance-enhancing drugs, vague as Sheffield’s may be, repeating that history, especially with the ballot getting more crowded again next year.

3. Beltrán gets more love than those PED “cheaters”


Carlos Beltrán (Bryan Yablonsky / Getty Images)

I can’t tell you how many votes Carlos Beltrán would have gotten if he’d just lived on an alternative planet where there was no such thing as the 2017 Astros. I can tell you that his jury has now filed back into this courtroom. And we have a shocking verdict on our hands.

Was Beltrán guilty of the crime of heinous cheating, just like those notorious PED scoundrels this jury has been pummeling and punishing for a decade and a half? Surprisingly, nearly half of our distinguished jurists/voters (46.5 percent) have decided:

Whatever! Not guilty!

Full disclosure: If you’ve read my Hall ballot column, you know I agree with this verdict. I voted for the guy. I just didn’t expect that many of my fellow voters would see it this way.

Beltrán’s 70.1 Wins Above Replacement would make him essentially a sure Hall of Famer on that alternative planet. But now consider how differently Hall voters over the last two decades have treated 70-win players with PED ties in their first year on the ballot:

Barry Bonds — 36.2 percent
Alex Rodriguez — 34.3 percent
Rafael Palmeiro — 11.0 percent

So the message seems clear: Their “cheating” is officially being viewed as more scandalous than Beltrán and his fancy, high-tech, trash-can “cheating.” That’s obvious, just from looking at his vote totals. But let’s zoom in a little closer.

When the first public ballots began to show up in Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame Tracker, many of Beltrán’s votes were coming from the same voters who were checking the names of A-Rod and Manny Ramírez. But now that we have hundreds more votes to break down, it turns out that those voters weren’t the best ones to study. The most revealing group, Sardell reports, was the voters who tend to vote for lots of non-PED guys.

According to Sardell, at last look Beltrán was showing up on 70 percent of the ballots of writers who voted for at least six players with no PED ties. Beltrán was at 55 percent with voters who supported four or five non-PED candidates. But he was at only 31 percent among those who voted for three or fewer players in that group.

So what does that tell us? It tells us there was a surprisingly small link between how voters felt about Manny and A-Rod (who received 33.2 percent and 35.7 percent of this year’s vote, respectively) and how they looked at Beltrán. And if that means most voters are willing to look at Beltrán from a place where they don’t view him through the bars of Cheaters Jail, I think he’s going to get elected someday.

Who knew!

4. Say Goodbye/hello to Jeff Kent, the next Fred McGriff


Jeff Kent and Fred McGriff (Todd Warshaw /Allsport via Getty Images)

Unfortunately for Jeff Kent, his time on this ballot has expired. But fortunately for Jeff Kent, in his 10th and final election, he did zoom past 40 percent for the first time. And that’s quite a development, considering four years ago he hadn’t even made it to 20 percent.

Even with his surge this year, from 32.7 percent to 46.5 percent, he was still more than 100 votes away from getting elected. But I wouldn’t be worrying about any of that if I were him.

That’s because in a few years his Hall of Fame mulligan arrives, via the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee. And that committee has already shown us — and him — the most irrelevant thing that has ever happened to him in his career was spending 10 years on the writers’ ballot and never coming close to getting elected.

Exhibit A is a gentleman named Fred McGriff. He, too, logged 10 years on the writers’ ballot. He never made it to 40 percent in any of those years (peaking at 39.8 in Year 10). And how’d that work out? Pretty, pretty good. Just last month, the Contemporary Era Committee took one look at his candidacy and … unanimously elected him on the first ballot.

So check out Kent’s credentials and tell us you don’t think he’s the perfect candidate to follow that same trail to Cooperstown. Like McGriff, Kent has an old-school claim to historic greatness that seems to play well with all versions of these veterans committees: Most home runs ever by a second baseman (351) … most RBIs ever by a second baseman (1,428) … most 100-RBI seasons ever by a second baseman (eight) … highest slugging percentage by a second baseman (.509) since Rogers Hornsby retired, over 100 years ago.

And while it may not matter much to the voters on that committee, Kent’s late momentum on the writers’ ballot also mirrors McGriff’s.

VOTE PERCENTAGE INCREASE IN FINAL FOUR ELECTIONS

McGriff — +25.9% (12.9% to 39.8%)
Kent — +28.4% (18.1% to 46.5%)

Kent’s first year of eligibility via the Contemporary Era Committee is 2026, with the election held at the Winter Meetings in December 2025. Would it shock you if that committee sized him up that week and decided: Yep, he’s our guy? Let’s just say it shouldn’t!

5. I already can’t wait for next year’s election


Adrián Beltré (Rick Yeatts / Getty Images)

Is it OK to gaze into the future on a day like this? Heck, yeah. Why not? Maybe this wasn’t the most earth-rattling Hall of Fame election of modern times. But next year? Next year is going to be a blast. Let’s tell you why.

The first-year class is so much fun. Adrián Beltré joins the ballot next year. He’s the most surefire first-ballot lock since Derek Jeter in 2020. The highest first-ballot percentage ever by a third baseman was 98.2, by George Brett in 1999. Could Beltré beat that? Not impossible. I don’t know who could find a reason not to vote for a five-time Gold Glove Award winner with 3,166 hits. But hey, weirder non-votes have happened.

But after Beltré, we’ll have two more super interesting first-year attractions to chew on: Joe Mauer and Chase Utley. There had never been any such thing as a catcher who was a three-time batting champ, until Mauer. Except Mauer then finished his career with five seasons at first base that didn’t quite remind anybody of Lou Gehrig. So if the first-base years are stuck in some voters’ heads, he’ll be a fascinating candidate.

And so will Utley, a Sabermetric cult hero who ranks higher, according to Jay Jaffe’s essential JAWS metric, than Roberto Alomar, Craig Biggio and eight other Hall of Fame second basemen. So that’s a cool new-age/old-school debate waiting to happen.

But David Wright, Bartolo Colon, Matt Holliday, José Reyes and Adrián González also will appear on next year’s ballot. And they don’t all seem like your typical one-and-done candidates, either. So there’s a lot to ponder there.

How many holdovers get in? Now back to this election. When the dust settled on the returns Tuesday, we had only one player elected — but we also had a half-dozen players all lined up to chisel their plaques someday. So with a 2024 ballot that’s suddenly a whole lot more packed with excellent candidates, how many holdovers will there be room for?

• Two of those holdovers (Helton and Wagner) racked up more than 68 percent of the vote apiece. And that will make next year just the fifth election in the modern voting era to feature two returning candidates with vote totals that high. And in all four of the previous elections, both of those players got elected the next year:

2018 — Trevor Hoffman, Vladimir Guerrero
2017 — Jeff Bagwell, Time Raines
2011 — Bert Blyleven, Roberto Alomar
1987 — Billy Williams, Catfish Hunter

• But next year will also feature five returning candidates who got at least 46 percent of the vote. And there have been just seven previous elections in the last 37 years when that happened. In only two of them — 2013 and last year — were none of those returning candidates elected. But, as we’ve covered, Helton and Wagner are both solidly in the imminent-election zone.

No matter how many get to 75 percent next year, though, the first-ballot influx will no doubt have a ripple effect on vote totals up and down the ballot. So will that lead to some of this year’s high jumpers abruptly riding the escalator back down next January? Could happen.

All I know is, 2024 is shaping up as one of the hardest Hall of Fame elections to project in years. I’m looking forward to it already. Can you tell?

(Illustration: John Bradford / The Athletic / Getty Images)



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Every MLB team’s best international signing of the last decade

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Baseball’s international signing period for 2023 opens Sunday, which means this would be a good time to see which clubs have most effectively tapped into this critical talent pipeline. We asked The Athletic’s baseball writers to name each team’s best international free agent signing of the last decade. The answers reveal which teams have done well, perhaps a reflection of an investment in scouting (or even a willingness to lavish sizable deals on players who had already established themselves as stars overseas). The answers also reveal which franchises have some work to do.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Jazz Chisholm

Arizona’s international efforts have ramped up under the current regime, but it takes years for that to bear fruit. As such, the organization’s best international signing of the last 10 years can be credited to the Dave Stewart administration, which inked shortstop prospect Jazz Chisholm for $200,000 out of the Bahamas in 2015. Chisholm’s major-league career has just begun, although he’s already earned an All-Star nod at second base. Yes, it was with the Marlins, but trading Chisholm in 2019 allowed current general manager Mike Hazen to acquire ace Zac Gallen, who has been and should continue to be a perennial Cy Young Award candidate for years to come. — Zach Buchanan

Atlanta Braves: Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuña Jr. wasn’t ranked among the top 30 international prospects in the 2014 class when the Braves signed the young Venezuelan for $100,000, which was twice as much as the next-largest bonus he was offered, from the Royals. Four years later, a 20-year-old Acuña was a near-unanimous choice for NL Rookie of the Year over Juan Soto, and now he’s a three-time All-Star and two-time Silver Slugger Award winner who’s regarded as one of the top young players in baseball. A torn ACL in July 2021 is the only thing that’s managed thus far to stall his otherwise steady ascent. — David O’Brien

Baltimore Orioles: César Prieto

The Orioles ignored the international market for more than a decade under owner Peter Angelos. That philosophy changed in 2018, when his sons took over and hired general manager Mike Elias and international director Koby Perez. The organization is setting signing-bonus records annually now, but most of their acquisitions are at the low levels of the minors. The exception is infielder César Prieto, a 23-year-old Cuban defector who signed last year for $650,000. Prieto tore through High A (.340/.381/.619) in 25 games and spent the rest of 2022 at Double A, where he slashed .255/.296/.348. He’ll likely start the year at Double A, but should push toward Norfolk once there’s an opening at second, shortstop or third base. — Dan Connolly

Boston Red Sox: Rafael Devers

Rafael Devers signed for $1.5 million as a 16-year-old out of the Dominican Republic in August 2013 and debuted when he was just 20 years old in late 2017. He’s been the team’s Opening Day third baseman every year since. In his five and a half seasons, he’s etched himself into Red Sox record books in several categories and since the beginning of 2019, Devers leads the majors in doubles (149) and extra-base hits (264) and leads the AL in hits (591) and total bases (1,078). Earlier this month, the Red Sox reached an agreement on an 11-year, $331 million deal with Devers, the largest contract in team history. — Jen McCaffrey

Chicago Cubs: Eloy Jiménez

The debate is probably between Eloy Jiménez and Gleyber Torres, neither of whom has taken a single big-league at-bat with the Cubs. Both were traded at the height of the Cubs’ most recent string of success and both have been generally strong performers when healthy. But it’s Jiménez’s power bat and potential to slug among the best in baseball that sets him apart in this writer’s eyes. The trade that sent him to the White Sox along with Dylan Cease and brought José Quintana to the Cubs will be one baseball fans in Chicago will bring up for years. Maybe a 2023 breakout from Cristian Hernández will slightly ease Cubs fans’ pain. — Sahadev Sharma


Eloy Jiménez. (Mark J. Rebilas / USA Today)

Chicago White Sox: José Abreu

This sure has the potential to be awkward. Recent tumult aside, Fernando Tatis Jr. has more than a puncher’s chance to accumulate the most career WAR of any international player signed by the Sox during the past 10 years, and he’s accumulating it all in San Diego after being dealt for the last gasps of James Shields in 2016. Luis Robert has the tools to maybe match him long-term, but similar issues staying healthy and less realized production. Since the Sox immediately knew what they had in Robert and made him a franchise centerpiece, maybe he is the best signing. Or we could make this simple. José Abreu was signed in late October 2013 at age 26, giving us the benefit of looking at the bulk of his MLB career in hindsight. Two RBI titles, five 30-homer seasons, three All-Star teams, three Silver Sluggers and an MVP award. That’ll do. The only awkward part there is that he plays for the defending champion Astros now. — James Fegan

Cincinnati Reds: Elly De La Cruz

It may be odd to say a player who has fewer than 50 games above A ball is the best signing of the last 10 years, but Elly De La Cruz’s ascension to the top of prospect lists after signing for $65,000 in 2018 shows just how much promise there is in the 21-year-old switch-hitting shortstop. — C. Trent Rosecrans

Cleveland Guardians: Yandy Diáz

It’s actually astounding how little Cleveland’s franchise has benefitted from its international signings, especially considering they’ve contended for much of the last decade. José Ramírez, obviously, was a home-run pickup, but he signed in 2009, out of range for this prompt. The only international player who signed with the organization within the last 10 years and has totaled at least 0.5 fWAR with Cleveland: Oscar Gonzalez. It seems as though strides have been made on the international front in recent years, with George Valera, Brayan Rocchio and Angel Martinez among the club’s top prospects. Yandy Diáz logged 0.4 fWAR with Cleveland before the team jettisoned him to Tampa — where he has blossomed — in a deal that brought Carlos Santana back to Cleveland (oh, and Jake Bauers, too). — Zack Meisel

Colorado Rockies: Ezequiel Tovar

The Rockies don’t tend to be major players in the international market, choosing instead to pick around the edges looking for lottery tickets. Big bonus spending on teenaged free agents is not their style, not until last year at least. And once in a while, they find an undervalued player who makes it. Righthander Antonio Senzatela, then 16, was a nice get out of Venezuela in 2011 for a $250,000 bonus. Within the last decade, they signed shortstop Ezequiel Tovar, also 16 and from Venezuela, for $800,000 in 2018. He became one of their top prospects and debuted late last season. The verdict on his major league career will wait, but Tovar is set to become Colorado’s No. 1 shortstop. — Nick Groke

Detroit Tigers: Gregory Soto

The Tigers’ past decade on the international market has been unbelievably dry. Gregory Soto (recently traded to the Phillies) was their only productive big leaguer in a generation of international prospects. Their last true international win was Willy Adames, who signed in 2012. He was traded to the Rays in 2014 and has gone on to post 15.5 bWAR in the majors. — Cody Stavenhagen


Gregory Soto. (Kim Klement / USA Today)

Houston Astros: Framber Valdez

The Astros have had significant success in the international market in recent years. It is a big reason why the organization has been able to lose players like Gerrit Cole and George Springer in free agency and not miss a beat. Cristian Javier, Yurí Gurriel, Luis García and José Urquidy were all signed as amateur free agents within the past 10 years. But the best of the bunch is Framber Valdez, who overcame countless rejections to finally land a pro contract with the Astros in 2015 and has quickly become one of the elite left-handed starters in baseball. — Melissa Lockard

Kansas City Royals: Esteury Ruiz

The Royals won the World Series in 2015 with Salvador Perez, Yordano Ventura and Kelvin Herrera playing major roles, but the club hasn’t turned an international signing into a regular player in more than a decade. The oft-injured Adalberto Mondesi, for instance, was signed in 2011. The best signing is probably Dominican infielder turned outfielder Esteury Ruiz, who was signed in 2015. Ruiz was traded to the Padres in 2017 and was on the move a lot in the last year, eventually ending up in Oakland. One other name to watch: 22-year-old Venezuelan shortstop Maikel García. — Rustin Dodd

Los Angeles Angels: Shohei Ohtani

This is an easy one for the Angels. Roberto Baldoquin has to be the choice. I kid, and apologize for that, Angels fans. The real answer is Shohei Ohtani. The Angels haven’t had much success in developing international free agents. But Ohtani is clearly the outlier. The modern-day Babe Ruth. One of the most unique and talented players of his time, or all time. There’s no one close to him on the list of Angels signings to choose from. Ohtani has also come at a relative bargain, with 2023 his first significant payday. The question is how long he’ll stay in Anaheim. — Sam Blum

Los Angeles Dodgers: Yordan Alvarez

Julio Urías missed this cutoff, having been signed in 2012. That leaves the Dodgers’ most notable international signing of the last decade as a reminder of one of their few major whiffs on the trade front in that period as well. Yordan Alvarez never played a game in the organization before being dealt to Houston for reliever Josh Fields, but has since emerged as one of the most fearsome hitters in the sport. He’s already accumulated 13.6 bWAR in four seasons despite largely serving as a designated hitter and missing nearly all of 2020, punctuating things with a top-3 finish for MVP last year and a titanic blast to help the Astros clinch a World Series win. It’s been a productive signing, even though the Dodgers surely wish that production came in their uniform. — Fabian Ardaya

Miami Marlins: Eury Pérez

The Marlins have a sizable heap of promising international prospects that would fit in this category. The jury is still out on them, but given the strides made in 2022 it feels appropriate to spotlight Eury Pérez here. The lanky fireballer towers over everyone who steps into the box against him. His 6-foot-9 frame makes it hard for even the likes of Reds star prospect Elly De La Cruz to get a good read on anything coming out of Pérez’s hand. He’s far from a one-trick pony, though. He couples his hard heater with three plus or better pitches. He’s also so poised that at 19 years old last season he outdid Double-A Southern League competitors who were on average five years older than him. — Maria Torres


Eury Pérez. (Photo courtesy of the Pensacola Blue Wahoos)

Milwaukee Brewers: Jackson Chourio

The answer here shows how unsuccessful many of the recent international signing classes have been for the Brewers and it also highlights just how good the player can be. It’s Jackson Chourio. The Brewers signed Chourio as a 16-year-old shortstop/center fielder from Venezuela in 2021. Already, he has skyrocketed atop Milwaukee’s prospect rankings. He has a shot to claim the top spot among prospects in baseball. In his age-18 season last year, Chourio slashed .288/.342/.538 with 20 home runs and 16 stolen bases. He split time mostly between the Class A levels, but he also appeared in six games for Double-A Biloxi. — Will Sammon

Minnesota Twins: Luis Arraez

Luis Arraez was far from a top prospect when he signed with the Twins for just $40,000 as a 16-year-old out of Venezuela in 2013. He was 5-foot-nothing, with zero power and mediocre speed, and it wasn’t clear where he’d fit best defensively. Turns out, it didn’t really matter, as Arraez’s exceptional bat control and plate discipline got him to the big leagues in 2019. He’s a career .314 hitter in 389 major-league games after hitting .331 in the minors, and now he’s a 25-year-old All-Star and batting champion. — Aaron Gleeman

New York Mets: Andrés Giménez

The Mets signed Andrés Giménez for $1.2 million as part of their 2015 international signing class. In 2020, Giménez, a gifted infielder from Venezuela, finished seventh for NL Rookie of the Year. In January 2021, the Mets included Giménez in their trade package for Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco. With the Guardians last season, Giménez posted a terrific season: In 557 plate appearances, he had 17 home runs and a .837 OPS with 20 stolen bases and a 6.1 fWAR. For those curious, Amed Rosario, who was also part of that trade with Cleveland, signed during the cycle before the cutoff period for this exercise. — Will Sammon

New York Yankees: Oswald Peraza

New York signed the shortstop prospect out of Venezuela in 2016, and he’s quickly turned into one of the Yankees’ best overall prospects. Oswald Peraza was briefly called up at the end of this season and flashed enough at the plate and in the field to make those around the team believe he’s ready to have an opportunity to be the Yankees’ starting shortstop by opening day. An honorable mention should go to fellow Venezuelan Oswaldo Cabrera. The Yankees signed Cabrera when he was 16 years old for $100,000. Now the 23-year-old might become the team’s starting left fielder this season. — Chris Kirschner

Oakland Athletics: Jordan Díaz

Twenty-five years ago, the A’s had a strong pipeline of talent flowing from their international scouting efforts, which produced All-Stars like Miguel Tejada, Ramon Hernández, Angel Berroa and Santiago Casilla. Since then, the pipeline has run dry, first from lack of funds, and more recently from development not going as planned. Despite giving out large six-figure bonuses to players such as Lazaro Armenteros, Robert Puason and Pedro Pineda, the A’s biggest international signing success of the last decade has been Jordan Díaz, who signed out of Colombia for $275,000 in July 2016. Infielder Jordan Díaz had an .881 OPS in his age-21 season last year and made his major-league debut. He’s one of the best pure hitters in the A’s organization. — Melissa Lockard


Jordan Díaz. (Danne Braden / Midland RockHounds)

Pittsburgh Pirates: Rodolfo Castro

It’s a close race between infielders Rodolfo Castro and Ji Hwan Bae. Castro, 23, signed for $150,000 in October 2015 out of the Dominican Republic. He’s had brief stints in the majors the past two seasons and batted .224/.288/.419 with 16 homers. This year, he’ll go into spring training with a chance to win the starting job at second base. Bae, 23, originally was signed by the Braves, but joined the Pirates in 2018 for $1.25 million when the Braves were penalized for rule violations. Bae made his big league debut last summer and has a good chance to break camp with the Pirates this year. Castro has gotten a bit more big-league playing time and has more pop in his bat, so for now I’ll go with him — Rob Biertempfel

Philadelphia Phillies: Sixto Sánchez

He never threw a pitch in the majors for the Phillies, but Sixto Sánchez was one of the club’s best investments in the last decade. Sánchez cost only $35,000 to sign. He developed into a top prospect before he turned 19 and the Phillies used him as the centerpiece in a trade with Miami for J.T. Realmuto. The Phillies have had success in turning small-bonus international amateurs into prospects but not necessarily big-league talent. Sánchez, who last pitched in the majors in the 2020 postseason, is still only 24. But injuries have derailed him. — Matt Gelb

San Diego Padres: Emmanuel Clase

The Padres signed Emmanuel Clase for $125,000 in January 2015, and he spent three seasons in the low levels of the organization as a talented but erratic right-hander. Questions about his maturity encouraged San Diego to trade him for catcher Brett Nicholas in 2018. Over the last couple of years, Clase has made multiple teams regret moving on from him; since Texas sent him to Cleveland in a 2019 deal to acquire Corey Kluber, Clase has emerged as maybe the best reliever in baseball, wielding an absurd cutter that averages 100 mph. That pitch, along with a similarly elite slider, has helped the 24-year-old closer to a 1.47 ERA across his first two seasons with the Guardians. In 2022, Clase logged a 1.36 ERA while leading the majors in saves, appearances and games finished. — Dennis Lin

San Francisco Giants: Camilo Doval

Only two international free agents signed after 2013 have made the majors for the Giants: Camilo Doval and Kervin Castro. So the answer is Doval from a pure value standpoint. So, uh, the answer is Doval. And maybe the Giants should fix this.

The answer will almost certainly be Marco Luciano, though. Prospects are volatile, but it’s hard to see how someone with his bat speed and ability to stick up the middle of the diamond can’t have at least an average major-league career. Considering the last international player to get an at-bat with the Giants was Pablo Sandoval, who signed as a free agent in 2003, back when most people had dial-up modems, Luciano can’t come soon enough. — Grant Brisbee

Seattle Mariners: Julio Rodríguez

It took $1.75 million for the Mariners to sign outfielder Julio Rodríguez in 2017, which probably now feels like couch change after the return the 22-year-old has already provided the club. Rodríguez ran away with the American League Rookie of the Year Award and even earned a seventh-place finish in the AL MVP vote after a big first season in the big leagues. Add to that the 12-year extension he signed in the summer that will guarantee him $210 million (with a chance to earn much more). The sky is the limit for him. — Corey Brock


Julio Rodríguez. (Joe Nicholson / USA Today)

St. Louis Cardinals: Sandy Alcántara

The Cardinals signed then-18-year-old Sandy Alcántara as part of their 2013-2014 international class, back when current assistant general manager Moisés Rodríguez served as the organization’s director of international scouting. Alcántara debuted for St. Louis in 2017 but was traded to Miami the following offseason for Marcell Ozuna, a move president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has probably lost some sleep over in hindsight. Since that trade, Alcántara has established himself as one of the top starting pitchers in baseball with two National League All-Star berths under his belt along with unanimously winning the National League Cy Young Award in 2022. — Katie Woo

Tampa Bay Rays: Wander Franco

Wander Franco the Wunderkind is a star for a reason. He was limited to 83 games because of lower body issues and a hamate bone fracture that required surgery, but he still showed glimpses of his star status at points throughout the year. Despite missing large swaths of the season, the Rays’ manager still pointed to his own excitement to watch Franco put up big numbers in 2023. We should side with Kevin Cash on this. Franco, signed out of the Dominican Republic not even six years ago, is just barely getting started. — Maria Torres

Texas Rangers: Jonathan Hernández

The obvious answer would be Leody Taveras, but for the price ($300,000), it’s hard to top Jonathan Hernández. At the time, his fastball was in the 80s and he was considered a deception-first guy who wouldn’t overpower hitters. Now armed with a triple-digit “turbo-sinker,” he’s a legit back-end reliever who could find himself in the closer role in 2023. Ask again in a few years, though: it’s very possible that the answer could change to Taveras or Luisangel Acuña. — Levi Weaver

Toronto Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

The Blue Jays have become highly regarded for their international scouting over the last several years, but their best signing of the last decade has to be Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Signed as a 16-year-old out of the Dominican Republic in 2015, his family ties meant Guerrero was a recognizable name, but his hitting prowess is what got him noticed. He continued to blossom in their system and debuted with the Blue Jays in 2019 to much fanfare. After an adjustment period, he’s developed into one of the best young hitters in baseball, a Gold Glove-winning first baseman, and a player the Blue Jays are building a playoff-calibre team around. — Kaitlyn McGrath

Washington Nationals: Juan Soto

Remember the kid who had to wait until the 2019 World Series was almost over to legally consume alcohol in beer showers? The one with the swaggy shuffle at the plate? Who once carried his bat all the way up the first base line and dropped it at the feet of his first base coach after obliterating a Justin Verlander heater? It was Juan Soto. His short career in Washington will resonate forever in the nation’s capital. — Maria Torres

(Top photo of Shohei Ohtani: Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)



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Rosenthal: Inside the trade of Sean Murphy to Braves and the catalyst for the three-team deal

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The Oakland A’s wanted two major-league-ready position players for catcher Sean Murphy. The Braves weren’t about to trade Vaughn Grissom, whom they are grooming to potentially replace free agent Dansby Swanson at shortstop. And the A’s didn’t need William Contreras, not after acquiring another catcher from the Braves, Shea Langeliers, in the Matt Olson trade nine months ago.

Effectively, the teams had no match. But on Tuesday, the Braves landed Murphy anyway, parting with six players in a three-team trade. Contreras and minor-league right-hander Justin Yeager went to the Brewers, along with reliever Joel Payamps from the A’s. Left-hander Kyle Muller, catcher Manny Piña, and minor-league righties Freddy Tarnok and Royber Salinas went to the A’s, with Muller substituting for the second position player Oakland was unable to acquire.

Two separate occurrences helped the deal come together, according to sources familiar with the discussions. The first was the Cardinals’ pivot away from Murphy to sign Contreras’ older brother, Willson Contreras, to a four-year, $87.5 million free-agent contract. The second was the Braves’ willingness to send William Contreras to the Brewers so they could access center fielder Esteury Ruiz, a player whom the A’s had identified to clubs as one they wanted for Murphy.

Ruiz, who turns 24 on Feb. 15, was part of the Brewers’ return for Josh Hader at the trade deadline. His arrival in Oakland could jeopardize the future of Cristian Pache, another player the A’s acquired in the Olson trade. Ruiz finished the season with a .447 on-base percentage in 541 plate appearances at Double A and Triple A. He also stole 85 bases in 99 attempts, and should benefit from the new rules baseball is introducing to enhance base stealing in 2023 — bigger bases, pickoff and step-off limits, a pitch clock.


Esteury Ruiz (Joe Camporeale / USA Today Sports)

Why would the Brewers trade such an athlete? Because in William Contreras, they are getting a different type of athlete, a 2022 All-Star they are confident their coaches can help improve defensively, even if the Braves viewed him more as a bat-first catcher. Why would the A’s value Ruiz so highly despite his lack of power? Because they love his speed and ability to play center. Because he improved his contact and walk rates last season. And because they never agreed on a trade with the Cardinals.

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch, citing a source, reported the A’s sought a return from the Cardinals that included outfielder Lars Nootbaar, Gold Glove-winner Brendan Donovan and a power young pitcher like Gordon Graceffo. However, another source briefed on the talks said the A’s wanted Nootbaar or Donovan plus Graceffo. The Cardinals were unwilling to trade any of those players, and instead wanted the A’s to choose two from a group of four consisting of outfielder Dylan Carlson, second baseman Nolan Gorman, outfielder Alec Burleson and first baseman Juan Yepez.

When the teams could not reach agreement, the Cardinals signed Willson Contreras, forfeiting their second-highest pick in the 2023 draft and $500,000 from their international bonus pool, but keeping all of their young talent. The evaluation of the Murphy trade, then, will include an analysis of whether the Cardinals would have been better off trading for three years of Murphy, 28, than signing Contreras, who turns 31 on May 13, to the largest deal in club history to a free agent from another club. And the questions won’t end there.

Was this deal necessary for the Braves? Did they give up too much? The answers will not be apparent immediately, and might change if the Braves sign Murphy to one of their patented long-term extensions. Still, William Contreras, Piña and Travis d’Arnaud helped the team produce the highest OPS at catcher of any team last season. Contreras, who bats right-handed but produces opposite-field power like a left-handed slugger, is under club control for five more years.

One of the fascinating aspects of this deal is that the Braves set a high bar for their catchers defensively and view William Contreras as similar to Willson, merely adequate behind the plate. Brewers general manager Matt Arnold, on the other hand, noted that Piña, Yasmani Grandal and Omar Narváez became better defenders under the tutelage of Milwaukee’s staff, indicating he believes William can do the same.

The rest of the Brewers’ haul is less intriguing. Payamps, one of the two pitchers they acquired, was likely to be designated for assignment by the A’s, who need to clear 40-man roster spots. Yeager, the other pitching addition, was left unprotected by the Braves and did not get selected in the recent Rule 5 draft.

Muller, Tarnok and Salinas, the pitchers who went from the Braves to the A’s, are more highly regarded. Muller was down on the Braves’ depth chart, and likely would have been out of options at the end of the season, but the A’s believe he has nothing left to prove at Triple A. Tarnok, too, was part of the Braves’ 40-man roster, and the A’s see him as a potential 100-mph reliever. Salinas, more of a lottery ticket, struck out 175 in 109 innings last season at two levels of A ball.

One executive with another team that wanted Murphy described the A’s return as, “meh,” saying the messaging from Oakland was, “never volume but two of your best.” As is always the case in baseball trades, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. And for the A’s, so much will depend upon Ruiz.

If the A’s had wanted William Contreras, they could have made this deal straight-up with the Braves, without including the Brewers. But the A’s only began entertaining offers for Murphy at the trade deadline because they were dealing from a position of strength at catcher.

Langeliers is entering his first full season. Tyler Soderstrom, the A’s No. 1 prospect, according to MLB Pipeline, was the team’s first-round pick in 2020, and could end up at first base rather than catcher. Daniel Susac, the team’s first-rounder in 2022 and No. 4 prospect, is further away from the majors, but likely to stay behind the plate.

Ruiz, meanwhile, could be the A’s long-term solution in center, another up-the-middle position. He appeared in only three games for the Brewers during a week-long call-up, but made a strong impression. “He’s really mature,” one Brewers person said. “Billy Hamilton fast with an aggressive swing and an idea at the plate. A 60 to 70 stolen-base type. Impressive in short stint. Unfazed by MLB.”

On Monday, he was the catalyst of a three-team, nine-player trade. The A’s think he can be the catalyst of much more.

(Top photo of Sean Murphy: G Fiume / Getty Images)



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Fred McGriff elected to Baseball Hall of Fame via Contemporary Era Committee

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By: David O’Brien, Keith Law and Andrew Baggarly

Fred McGriff was elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame via the Contemporary Era Committee Sunday night. Here’s what you need to know:

  • The Contemporary Era Committee consists of 16 members, comprised of members of the National Baseball Hall of Fame, executives and veteran media members.
  • McGriff was no longer eligible for election by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA).
  • Among those who did not receive the necessary 12 votes from the 16-person committee: Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, Dale Murphy, Rafael Palmeiro and Don Mattingly.

Evaluating McGriff’s career

McGriff played 19 seasons from 1986 through 2004 and hit .284 with 493 home runs, 1,550 RBIs and .886 OPS in 2,460 games. He finished in the top 10 in league MVP balloting six times including a fourth place in 1993, the year he was traded from San Diego to Atlanta in July and helped guide the 104-win Braves past San Francisco in one of the great playoff races of the modern era.

The first baseman was a five-time All-Star and three-time Silver Slugger Award winner, and McGriff thrived in postseason play, particularly with the Braves. He hit .303 with 37 RBIs and a .917 OPS in 50 career postseason games, and with Atlanta he had 10 home runs, a .411 OBP, a .581 slugging percentage and .992 OPS in 45 postseason games.

During the Braves’ 1995 postseason run to the city’s first pro-sports title, McGriff hit .333 (19-for-57) with six doubles, four homers, nine RBIs and 1.065 OPS, including two homers and a .955 OPS in the World Series win against Cleveland.

He had a career-best 37 home runs in 1993 with San Diego and Atlanta, the sixth of McGriff’s seven consecutive seasons with more than 30 homers. Though he never had more than 37, he had 10 seasons with at least 30 homers, and was the home-run leader once in each league.

McGriff had eight seasons with more than 100 RBIs, six with a .300 or higher batting average, 11 seasons with an OPS of at least .923, five with more than 90 walks, and only three seasons with more than 120 strikeouts. In 1989 with Toronto he led the AL in homers (36), OPS (.924) and OPS+ (165).

Another stat that often goes overlooked: McGriff played more than 150 games in 10 of his 19 seasons, and that’s not counting 1995, when he led the National League by playing all 144 games for Atlanta in a season that started late due to the work stoppage that had begun the previous fall.

If not for games lost to the work stoppage – the Braves played only 114 games in 1994; McGriff played 113 – there is little doubt he would have finished with more than 500 career homers, which some believe was one reason he was left off the ballot of many voters years ago when statistical milestones such as 3,000 hits, 500 homers or 300 wins virtually assured HOF induction.

He was well on his way to a career high for homers in 1994 before the season was halted, finishing with 34 in 113 games. McGriff had 61 homers in 257 games during those 1994-1995 seasons with Atlanta, playing all but one team game in that span. His 61 home runs in 258 team games in those two years projects to 76 homers if the full seasons had been played, and the additional 15 homers – or even if he’d slumped and hit only half that many – would’ve given McGriff at least 500. — O’Brien

Significance of McGriff getting into the Hall of Fame

McGriff is the most inoffensive candidate the committee could possibly have put in the Hall of Fame. He finished his career with 52.6 rWAR and 56.9 fWAR, making him neither a definite Hall of Famer nor a player who doesn’t belong at all. His 493 home runs — which in a pre-2000 era would have made him a slam dunk — puts him 8th among inactive players who aren’t in the Hall, with six of the guys ahead of him tainted by at least rumors of PED use. One of the arguments in his favor has long been that he’s one of the few sluggers of his era who was never hit with those allegations, and given what else happened in the committee’s voting, that may actually have boosted McGriff’s results. — Law

Evaluating Bonds, Clemens’ Hall of Fame chances

Last year, Bonds received 66 percent of the BBWAA vote in his 10th and final ballot with the writers. He got much less support when a committee of Hall of Fame players, executives and media members reviewed his candidacy for the first time Sunday. Bonds received “fewer than four votes,” according to the Hall. It’s possible he didn’t receive any votes at all. But percentages really don’t matter here. It’s all gamesmanship.

Committee members could vote for no more than three of eight candidates. If it became clear in the committee’s discussions that Bonds didn’t have 12 votes in the room, then it would’ve been a waste to check his name. In other words, getting fewer than four votes has to be viewed as a disappointment for Bonds, but it doesn’t crater his candidacy. Look at Don Mattingly, who received little to no support in past committee votes but received eight votes on Sunday. Perhaps if the committee composition changes enough by the time the Contemporary Era panel votes again in December 2025, then Bonds might stand a better chance. Or maybe Bonds gets shut out again while Jeff Kent sails through in his first time on a committee ballot. Which would be hilarious. — Baggarly

GO DEEPER

Stark: 5 things we learned from the Hall of Fame Contemporary Era election

Bonds and Clemens received fewer than four votes each and I can only conclude that this means neither of them will ever get into the Hall of Fame without a ticket. This was the last real hope for either player, and it couldn’t have gone worse for them, as they’d have to triple that vote total to earn enshrinement. So the all-time leader in home runs won’t be in the Hall, even though Bonds is also the all-time leader in WAR on Baseball Reference by 0.1 over Babe Ruth. He’s seventh all-time in OBP, eighth in slugging, sixth in RBI, first in walks and third in runs scored. New stats, old stats, awards, any way you measure it, he’s one of the best players in MLB history.

Clemens is third all-time in WAR, the best pitcher since integration by a huge margin, owner of the most Cy Young Awards, third all-time in strikeouts and ninth in pitcher wins. Regardless of your personal view on performance-enhancing drugs, the Contemporary Era Committee has made it extremely clear what their view is, and it means Bonds and Clemens are out – and it’s a terrible harbinger for Alex Rodríguez, too. — Law

Required reading

GO DEEPER

Barry Bonds wasn’t elected to the Hall of Fame by a special committee, and it wasn’t close

(Photo: Daniel Shirey / MLB Photos via Getty Images)



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Stark: It’s over for Bonds, Clemens — 5 things we learned from the Hall of Fame Contemporary Era election

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SAN DIEGO — It wasn’t just an election. It was a proclamation.

The headlines will say that the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee unanimously elected Fred McGriff to the Hall of Fame on Sunday. And that in itself is cause for celebration.

But in elections like this one, it isn’t just the player who got elected who was the story. In some ways, the players who didn’t get elected represented an even bigger story, a more momentous statement of where the Hall of Fame goes from here.

I’m thinking of two of those players in particular, but also of their entire tainted generation. So let’s start there, as we contemplate …

Five Things We Learned from the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee election.

1. Slam the door on Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and the performance-enhancing drugs generation

 


Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds couldn’t even muster four votes apiece. (Matt York / Getty Images)

It’s over. It’s all over for Barry Bonds. And for Roger Clemens. And, when you really think this through, for the whole generation of PED history makers who haven’t already sneaked into the Hall.

What’s the scenario now where any of them ever walk to the podium in Cooperstown on any Induction Weekend? I’m no visionary, but I can’t see one.

I guess I can’t predict how some era committee might vote in 50 years — or 500 years. So I’m going to stop myself from using the word, “never.” And also “ever.” But the vote of this committee feels like a deal-breaker … and a debate-ender … for the foreseeable future, at least.

There were 16 ballot casters who stepped into the Era Committee voting booth. Bonds and Clemens couldn’t even collect four votes apiece. They needed 12 votes to start working on their induction speeches. That was never going to happen.

So whaddaya know. It turned out that the baseball writers were actually their best shot — and quite possibly, their only shot. They both cleared the 60 percent bar in their final appearance on the writers’ ballot last year. You think they’ll ever top 60 percent in any election in which the voters include clean players they played against? Ha.

How about executives who are probably terrified of being viewed as sympathetic to two men who have become this radioactive in the industry? There will always be four or five of those folks on these committees, too.

Remember, it only takes five “no” votes or “non” votes to prevent any candidate from getting 75 percent in this 16-voter format. So what version of this committee will ever be made up of a group so open to a Bonds/Clemens induction extravaganza that there won’t even be five “no’s” in the room? Hard to imagine.

So that’s The End for them, right? Bonds and Clemens had 10 chances on the writers’ ballot and never made it. Now they’ve been rebuffed by a different group of voters. So will they even get another shot when this committee meets again three years from now? They might not.

Rafael Palmeiro, one of only seven members of the 3,000-Hit/500-Homer Club, was also on this ballot. He failed to get four votes, either.

And if you think Alex Rodriguez or Manny Ramirez are ever getting elected by the writers, you’ve been analyzing very different Hall of Fame election results than I have.

So let’s stop and recognize what just happened. The PED sentences have been handed down now. And it sure looks as though they’re lifetime sentences.

Oh, not for everyone, of course. The Hall asked us, the writers, to play an impossible guessing game of who did what before testing and suspensions kicked in. We were really, really not good at that game. But of course we weren’t. It was impossible.

So I don’t know how many PED users we’ve elected to the Hall already. Five? Ten? More? Less? Whatever. It now looks as if that’s probably going to be it — from an entire generation.

But hold your applause out there. I want you to consider what that means in the big picture. It means this is going to be a Hall of Fame that is unlike anything the founders could possibly have envisioned when the plaque gallery honored its first members nine decades ago.

It means the all-time home run king (Bonds) will be missing from this Hall of Fame.

It means the all-time Cy Young Award king (Clemens) will be missing from this Hall of Fame.

The guy who broke Roger Maris’ exalted home run record (Mark McGwire)? No plaque for him.

The man with more 60-homer seasons than any hitter who ever lived (Sammy Sosa, with three of them)? No plaque for him, either.

And then there’s the Hit King (Pete Rose). Don’t plan any future trips to go see his plaque in this Hall of Fame. He wrote an eloquent letter recently, taking one last shot at finding sympathy from the commissioner. But there was none to be found.

So think about this now. Are you sure that’s the kind of Hall of Fame you want? Is it the kind of Hall of Fame baseball should want? Just asking — because I’ll admit I feel a little funny about that.

But that’s the kind of Hall of Fame we’re almost guaranteed to have now. And that’s the most powerful thing we learned Sunday from the election results from the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee.

It’s over. It’s all over. For Bonds. For Clemens. For the kind of Hall of Fame that will only exist now in an alternate universe — where the plaques are chiseled only in the Bonds and Clemens family’s imagination.

2. Here’s to the Crime Dog


Fred McGriff watches a blast during his time with the Braves. (Focus on Sport / Getty Images)

I never like to go this deep into any column like this without saluting a man who actually did get elected. But sorry. I had to get that other rant off my chest first.

But now that it’s out of the way, here’s to Fred McGriff. It couldn’t possibly have been more fitting that this man got elected this year, in this election — because that, too, was a statement by this committee about the PED era.

I’ve written and said this many times over the years. I’ll say it again. No hitter of the last 35 years has had his Hall of Fame candidacy overshadowed by the PED era more than McGriff — until now.

Who embodied the fate of “the clean player” in that era more than he did? The correct answer is: Nobody.

Allow me to repeat what I wrote about him in his final year on the writers’ ballot (2019). It’s as true as ever — and, now, more meaningful than ever.

For a decade and a half, the 15 seasons from 1988 through 2002, the Crime Dog was pretty much exactly the same player. He never changed. What did change, obviously, was the sport around him.

So over the first five years of his consistently great 15-year peak, he was a constant presence on the league leaderboard, a home run champion waiting to happen. And then, in 1993, everything changed — except him.

Over the next 10 years, McGriff’s production was virtually identical. The only difference was, instead of finding him all over those league-leader lists from 1993 on, you suddenly couldn’t find him on those leaderboards with the Webb Telescope — even though he hadn’t changed at all. Here’s the breakdown:

1988-1992 — .283/.393/.531
1993-2002 — .290/.373/.506

TOP 5 IN HR — 5 of first 5 seasons, 2 of last 10 seasons

TOP 5 IN HR RATIO — 5 of first 5 seasons, 0 of last 10 seasons

TOP 5 IN OPS — 5 of first 5 seasons, 2 of last 10 seasons

TOP 5 IN SLUGGING — 4 of first 5 seasons, 1 of last 10 seasons

The writers had 10 years to figure that out and right that wrong. We never came close. It took this committee to see McGriff from a different perspective and honor his greatness. It’s the reason these committees exist, and it’s an important one.

So this group didn’t merely make a statement about the PED era by punishing the players it viewed as that era’s greatest offenders. The committee made just as powerful a statement by unanimously electing the man it honored. And it was a statement that made more people happy, in the always complicated sport of baseball, than you could possibly imagine.

3. For Curt Schilling, um, careful what you wish for

I think Curt Schilling is a Hall of Famer. I remind you that 70 percent of my fellow writers thought so, too, because 70 percent of us voted for him in our elections — twice!

But two years ago, after he missed out by just 16 votes, Schilling told us he didn’t want to be elected to the Hall by the likes of us. He wanted to be judged by a committee like this one. So OK, he got what he wished for. And it turned out the committee treated him more harshly than the writers. Life is cruel like that sometimes.

He appeared on the ballots of just seven members of this 16-person committee. That’s 43.8 percent. For the record, he got a higher percentage than that in seven consecutive writers’ elections. Merely passing along that helpful fact because that’s what we do around here.

Just as I would have loved to be in that room for the committee’s Bonds/Clemens conversation, I’m even more curious about what the Schilling debate was like. Unlike McGriff — who had a longtime ex-teammate, Greg Maddux, and the one-time president of the Blue Jays team he debuted for, Paul Beeston, in the room to stump for him — Schilling seemed to lack a strong advocate on the committee.

Only former Red Sox franchise-changer Theo Epstein, who once joined Schilling at Thanksgiving dinner in 2003 and then traded for him, had a direct connection. It would have been awesome to hear Theo’s take on a man who helped win him two World Series. But these committees are sworn to secrecy, so we’ll never know.

At any rate, here’s the historic angle on how the committee handled Schilling: When a guy gets 70 percent in the writers’ election, that’s always been an automatic ticket to election by these committees. Always.

The history of the writers’ modern voting system goes back about half a century. And until now, every player who reached 70 percent on the writers’ ballot — and then came before some version of the Veterans Committee — had gotten elected by that committee on the first try. It’s not a long list of players who got that many votes without getting elected by the writers. But still …

Orlando Cepeda — elected by the committee in 1999. Peaked at 73.5 percent in his final year on the writers’ ballot (1994).

Nellie Fox — elected by the committee in 1997. Peaked at 74.7 percent (two votes short) in his final year on the writers’ ballot (1985).

Jim Bunning — elected by the committee in 1996. Followed a very Schilling-like path before that. Got 70-plus percent in two writers’ elections. Peaked at 74.2 percent in 1988, when he still had three elections to go, but never even got back to 64 percent after that. Strange.

So this year, it was Curt Schilling’s turn. And for whatever reason, he was the one who brought that streak to a crashing halt. One thing we should keep in mind, though, is that the voting rules also changed this year, now that each committee member can vote for just three players instead of four.

Once McGriff collected his 16 votes, there were only 32 total spots left on 16 ballots. So the chances of any other candidate occupying at least 12 of those 32 spots were incredibly small. Ask your favorite mathematician to explain it sometime.

But unlike Bonds and Clemens, Schilling at least seems positioned to get another chance with the next Contemporary Baseball committee in December 2025. Will that election turn out like this one? Who knows. But I still think that one of these years, there will be a Hall of Fame plaque with his name on it.

4. Is there new life for Dale Murphy and Don Mattingly?

Is it three strikes, you’re out, for Dale Murphy and Don Mattingly? Honestly, I hope not. They both made progress in this election. So I’m guessing that they, too, have earned the right to try out this system again in three years.

Mattingly actually got more votes in this election than anyone other than McGriff. He was named on eight of the 16 ballots. That’s 50 percent — nearly double the most he ever received in any writers’ election (28.2 percent).

And Murphy finished fourth, with six votes. That computes to 37.5 percent, which is also a bigger number than he got in any of his 15 spins on the writers’ ballot (23.2 percent).

But they were still a long way from getting elected. And that’s tough news if you’re one of those people who thinks any player belongs in the Hall who had a run of multiple years in the thick of the “Who’s the best player in baseball?” debate.

That’s always been the appeal of both Murphy and Mattingly, two of the early 1980s most magnetic attractions. But these committees rarely seem to elect players like that. And no one knows that better than these two guys.

They were also on the ballots of the 2018 and 2020 Modern Era Committees. (Full disclosure: I served on that 2018 committee.) And those two years, they didn’t even get close enough to have their vote totals announced to the public. So while this committee didn’t elect them, it did lay the groundwork for some future group to pick up where this one left off.

Until then, you know what Murphy and Bonds have in common? They’re sharing space on the very short list of retired players who won multiple MVPs and are not in the Hall of Fame.

MOST MVPS, NOT IN HOF, RETIRED PLAYERS*
(*-no longer eligible on writers’ ballot)

Barry Bonds — 7
Dale Murphy — 2
Roger Maris — 2
Juan Gonzalez — 2

NOT ON BALLOT YET

Albert Pujols — 3
Mike Trout — 3
Miguel Cabrera — 2
Bryce Harper — 2

STILL ON WRITERS’ BALLOT

Alex Rodriguez — 3

But of course, Bonds and Murphy are on this list for two very different reasons. It’s actually only Murphy and a different home-run record-breaker, Maris, who have won multiple MVPs and not gotten elected despite no PED ties. So if the Hall ever builds a Clean Players wing, those two might sail in on the first ballot.

5. Fred McGriff escaped one of history’s most notorious clubs

And now one last related development. Fred McGriff is out of the club!

So what club is that? The Most Homers But Not in the Hall of Fame Club. What else?

Until this election, his 493 career home runs were the 10th most in history by a non-Hall of Famer. But if you check out everyone ahead of him, it’s clear why McGriff never fit in the first place.

MOST HOME RUNS, NOT IN HOF

PLAYER HR WHY NOT ELECTED

Barry Bonds  

762

PED TIES

Albert Pujols  

703

NOT ON BALLOT YET

Alex Rodriguez 

696

PED TIES

Sammy Sosa  

609

PED TIES

Mark McGwire    

583

PED TIES

Rafael Palmeiro

569

PED TIES

Manny Ramirez

555

PED TIES

Gary Sheffield 

509 

PED TIES

Miguel Cabrera  

507

ACTIVE

Fred McGriff 

   493

NEVER MIND!

There are so many reasons to appreciate McGriff’s election — but none more than this. Never has anyone been more grateful to get booted out of a club he never should have been admitted to in the first place.

(Top photo of Barry Bonds: Tom Szczerbowski / Getty Images)



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Rosenthal: What I’m hearing about MLB free agency with Justin Verlander, Anthony Rizzo and more

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What I’m hearing:

• The market for free-agent starting pitchers is quite active, and the early asks from the three biggest names — Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Carlos Rodón— are, to no one’s surprise, quite high.

Rangers general manager Chris Young, who already traded for Jake Odorizzi and extended a qualifying offer to Martín Pérez, has said he will explore “all ends of the market.” But the early asks by the big three might compel the Rangers and other clubs to pivot to trades and lesser starters.

• Verlander, who personally negotiated his free-agent deal with Astros owner Jim Crane while vacationing in Italy last offseason, seemed a good bet to re-sign quickly with Houston. But it has not happened, perhaps because Verlander sees the potential for lucrative opportunities with the Mets, Yankees and Dodgers, among others. Unlike deGrom and Rodón, he was not eligible for a qualifying offer. And because he did not receive one, he is not subject to draft-pick compensation.

The likely AL Cy Young winner, who turns 40 on Feb. 20, could be a short-term, high-dollar fit for any of those clubs. The Mets face the losses in free agency not just of deGrom, but also Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker. The Yankees declined to pursue Verlander at the 2017 trade deadline and missed on him in free agency last offseason. The Dodgers might pursue Verlander if Tyler Anderson rejects their $19.65 million qualifying offer — and heck, even if he accepts, too.

• Lesser starters who did not receive qualifying offers (Andrew Heaney, José Quintana, etc.) also are drawing considerable interest. Some of those pitchers might come off the board quickly after Tuesday’s deadlines for teams to set 40-man rosters and players to accept their qualifying offers.

Nathan Eovaldi, who received a qualifying offer, is another starting pitcher to watch. The Red Sox reportedly made him a multi-year offer and are among the many teams that like the top Japanese pitcher in the free-agent market, Kodai Senga.


Anthony Rizzo (Dustin Satloff / Getty Images)

• The Astros have identified Anthony Rizzo as their No. 1 free-agent target at first base. They also are considering Yuli Gurriel and José Abreu, but signing Rizzo would serve the dual purpose of bolstering their own roster while weakening the Yankees’.

Rizzo, 33, faces an interesting decision on whether to return to the Yankees. If he accepts the team’s qualifying offer, he would earn a higher one-year salary than he might receive in a multi-year deal. He then could spend another season hitting at Yankee Stadium, while also benefitting from the new shift restrictions, and re-enter the market without a qualifying offer. A player cannot receive one twice.

• The Braves are not considering trading right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. — or, for that matter, any other young player they have signed to an extension.

While the club, as a matter of policy, does not award no-trade clauses, a player who signs an extension does it with the implicit understanding he will not be traded. Obviously, things can change — a player, for example, eventually might want out. But if the Braves break the trust they’ve created internally, players will become more resistant to the extensions that have positioned the team for long-term success.

• Two other things that are highly unlikely for the Braves: The signing of deGrom or a shortstop other than Dansby Swanson. If the Braves cannot keep Swanson, they probably will be out of the picture for Trea Turner, Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts, all of whom figure to be more expensive. Which is why president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos at the GM meetings mentioned Orlando Arcia and Vaughn Grissom as internal options.

No player currently with the Braves will earn more than $22 million in any season over the course of his contract, seemingly creating the flexibility for a major expenditure. But the Braves are reluctant to enter into a deal with any player who takes up too high a percentage of their payroll, knowing in future seasons the salaries of their young players will rise.

• The chances of the Brewers trading shortstop Willy Adames probably are slim. Luis Urías and Brice Turang both can play short, but Adames is a core player for Milwaukee. And the Brewers’ newly promoted GM, Matt Arnold, is well aware of what happened to the team after his predecessor, David Stearns, subtracted another core player, closer Josh Hader, at the deadline.

Granted, a clubhouse can more easily recover from an offseason trade than one at midseason. The Brewers, though, have other position players they can move if they want to reconfigure their payroll. Second baseman Kolten Wong is set to earn $10 million. Right fielder Hunter Renfroe is projected to get $11.2 million in arbitration. Both will be free agents at the end of the 2023 season.

Adames, projected to earn $9.2 million in arbitration, is under club control through 2024.

• Free agent Adam Frazier is coming off a career-low .612 OPS in 602 plate appearances with the Mariners, but some teams see potential in him as a super-utility type. Not a bad thought, particularly if Frazier regains the offensive form he displayed in 2021 before his trade from the Pirates to the Padres.

Frazier, who turns 31 on Dec. 14, received Gold Glove votes in left field in 2017, his first full season, and was a top-five finisher at second base in 2019, 2020 and 2021. Last season, he played in all three outfield spots as well as second and short, his position at Mississippi State.

• This is my own speculation, and not anything I’ve heard specifically. But Matt Carpenter’s deep and enduring connections to the Cardinals would seem to make a potential reunion feasible.

Carpenter was a roommate in rookie ball with Cardinals manager Oli Marmol. His transformation last offseason included a visit to the Marucci’s baseball performance lab in Baton Rouge, La., with Cardinals stars Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, as well as hitting sessions with former teammate and new Cardinals bench coach Matt Holliday.

The retirement of Albert Pujols potentially creates an opening for Carpenter, who turns 37 on Nov. 26. And the departure of hitting coach Jeff Albert also could enhance the possibility. Carpenter did not blame Albert for his struggles in his latter years with the Cardinals, but said, “I just never bought into (analytics) like I should have.”

(Top photo of Justin Verlander: Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images)



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MLB division series Day 1

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We’re down to eight teams in the 2022 postseason after four were eliminated this past weekend in MLB’s first-ever wild-card series weekend. Now it’s on to the league division series: four series, best-of-five, first team to win three advances.

The Philadelphia Phillies will battle the defending champion Atlanta Braves in the first game of the division series round, followed by two AL West rivals, the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners, facing off. The New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians will duke it out in the second ALDS, and, finally, an intradivision showdown between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres in the second NLDS caps off a jam-packed Tuesday.

How will the four survivors fare against the top squads?

Follow the action below all day long with start times, pitching matchups and starting lineups as they’re announced, followed by in-game updates and takeaways after each game is concluded.

More: Everything you need to know about the 2022 MLB playoffs | Previewing LDS matchups | Could this be the greatest postseason … ever? | Bracket, results and more

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves

Series tied 0-0

Lots of early scoring

Philadelphia is living the baseball adage that “two-out hits will get you to heaven.” Atlanta’s first score came via the long ball.

Phillies starter: Ranger Suarez (10-7, 129 K, 3.65 ERA)

Braves starter: Max Fried (14-7, 170 K, 2.48 ERA)

Starting lineups:

PHILLIES

1. Kyle Schwarber (L) LF
2. Rhys Hoskins (R) 1B
3. J.T. Realmuto (R) C
4. Bryce Harper (L) DH
5. Nick Castellanos (R) RF
6. Alec Bohm (R) 3B
7. Jean Segura (R) 2B
8. Matt Vierling (R) CF
9. Edmundo Sosa (R) SS

BRAVES

1. Ronald Acuna Jr. (R) RF
2. Dansby Swanson (R) SS
3. Austin Riley (R) 3B
4. Matt Olson (L) 1B
5. William Contreras (R) DH
6. Travis d’Arnaud (R) C
7. Orlando Arcia (R) 2B
8. Michael Harris II (L) CF
9. Robbie Grossman (S) LF

How they match up against each other: This is a division rival matchup between original 16 teams — both franchises date to the 19th century — but the Phillies and Braves have met just once in the postseason: In the 1993 NLCS, when the Phillies upset the Braves in six games. The Braves are trying to become the first team to secure back-to-back World Series titles since the 2000 Yankees won three in a row. They’re riding the wave of stealing the NL East from the Mets in the final week, going 78-34 since June 1 — the best record in the majors over that span.

The Braves won the season series 11-8 and while the Phillies outscored the Braves 88-85, the Braves took three of the four one-run games. Austin Riley hit .351 against the Phillies, but with just one home run in 19 games; Matt Olson hit five home runs against the Phillies, but hit just .191. The Phillies will be at a disadvantage since they’ll go with No. 3 starter Suarez in the opener after playing in the wild-card series, but Suarez had a solid 3.21 ERA in five starts against the Braves. Keep an eye on Zach Eflin: The Phillies used the former starter to finish off both wins against the St. Louis Cardinals, including his second career save in Game 2. — David Schoenfield

Famous fans

Arrivals

Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros (3:37 ET on TBS)

Series tied 0-0

Mariners starter: TBD

Astros starter: Justin Verlander (18-4, 185 K, 1.75 ERA)

Starting lineups:

MARINERS

1. Julio Rodriguez (R) CF
2. Ty France (R) 1B
3. Eugenio Suarez (R) 3B
4. Cal Raleigh (S) C
5. Mitch Haniger (R) RF
6. Carlos Santana (S) DH
7. Adam Frazier (L) 2B
8. Jarred Kelenic (L) LF
9. J.P. Crawford (L) SS

ASTROS

1. Jose Altuve (R) 2B
2. Jeremy Pena (R) SS
3. Yordan Alvarez (L) LF
4. Alex Bregman (R) 3B
5. Kyle Tucker (L) RF
6. Yuli Gurriel (R) 1B
7. Trey Mancini (R) DH
8. Chas McCormick (R) CF
9. Martin Maldonado (R) C

How they match up against each other: After their dramatic wild-card series win over the Toronto Blue Jays, the Mariners are now assured their first home playoff game since 2001. The question: Can they avoid a sweep and play a second home game? Their biggest obstacle will be figuring out Houston’s Game 1 starter, Justin Verlander — who would also line up to pitch a second game in the series. Not only did he allow no hits in three of his final six starts of the season, Verlander dominated the Mariners in 2022, going 5-1 with a 2.34 ERA.

The Astros won the season series 12-7 with a small plus-8 run differential, so the teams were pretty even in the non-Verlander games, but, to advance, it feels like the Mariners will need to beat Verlander at least once. While moving on would be huge for Seattle, it’s World Series or bust for Houston. With 106 wins — their fourth 100-win season since 2017 — the Astros have a chance to put a “dynasty” stamp on this era with a second World Series title in six years. — Schoenfield

M’s are here

Thanks for the help

The very helpful excuse note. Especially for a 2:37 p.m. local time start.

Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees (7:37 ET on TBS)

Series tied 0-0

Guardians starter: Cal Quantrill (15-5, 128 K, 3.38 ERA)

Yankees starter: Gerrit Cole (13-8, 257 K, 3.50 ERA)

Starting lineups:

GUARDIANS

TBD

YANKEES

TBD

How they match up against each other: This is a very different Yankees team than the one the Guardians faced during the season. New York is more hobbled with injuries, especially in the bullpen, and the New York offense has struggled with consistency in the second half. Cleveland has great potential to upset New York in this series given the Yankees’ inconsistencies on both sides of the ball. In order to move onto the ALCS, the Yankees will need strong performances from the rotation to take pressure off an inconsistent and injured bullpen.

On the flip side, this is not the same Guardians team that New York squared off against early in the season. This is a group that has been really strong in the second half and has seen emerging stars up and down the roster, from Steven Kwan to Andres Gimenez to Triston McKenzie. — Joon Lee

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers (9:37 ET on FS1)

Series tied 0-0

Padres starter: Mike Clevinger (7-7, 91 K, 4.33 ERA)

Dodgers starter: TBD

Starting lineups:

PADRES

TBD

DODGERS

TBD

How they match up against each other: Padres owner Peter Seidler, appearing on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball in August, referred to the Dodgers as “the dragon up the freeway that we’re trying to slay.” That dragon has often seemed insurmountable. The Padres have spent these last four years doing everything they can — stripping the farm system bare, pushing the payroll to unforeseen levels — in an effort to take down the team that resides 125 miles to the north. But the Dodgers have dominated the Padres in every facet, winning their last nine games against them last year and scoring nearly twice as many runs as them in this year’s season series.

The Padres played the Dodgers tough in the 2020 NLDS, but they had Fernando Tatis Jr. then. They don’t now. What they have is Juan Soto. In order to have a chance this week, Soto and Manny Machado need to do the heavy lifting for the offense, Josh Hader needs to dominate in the back end of the bullpen and the starting pitchers — the Padres’ one true advantage, if they have one — need to do what they did in Queens. But you have to wonder about the Padres’ confidence going into a series like this. They are very much the little brother in this dynamic, and they keep getting bullied. — Alden Gonzalez



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2022 MLB playoffs – Dodgers, Braves, Yankees on upset watch?

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Our first look at baseball’s new MLB playoff format was intense, compact, frenetic and, let’s face it, a little bit random. One team whose spot in the tournament wasn’t clinched until the closing days of the season, the Philadelphia Phillies, earned a date with the defending champion Atlanta Braves. Meanwhile, the St. Louis Cardinals — a division champion playing a wild-card series — are done after a dispiriting stretch that from start to finish lasted around 30 hours.

Those were just two outcomes from a playoff weekend unlike anything we’d see under the old format. Now we’re about to return to rhythms mostly familiar from postseasons in years past. The “mostly” qualifier is needed because it’s still not quite normal due to schedule tweaks necessitated by baseball’s late start last spring. But it’s still the division series: four series, best-of-five, first team to win three advances.

While the four wild-card round survivors put themselves through initial playoff stress tests, the top two seeds in each league were taking it easy, comparatively. They were holding workouts (or not showing up for them, in the case of the New York Yankees’ Aroldis Chapman), doing a little bit of media and waiting to find out whom they’d face in the division series. Now that baseball’s version of the elite eight is set, let’s peek ahead to the next round through the prism of what we saw over the weekend.

The Braves, Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers and Houston Astros won 417 games between them during the season, but that now all rolls back to zero as they face four teams that hope to have momentum on their side after getting through the opening gantlet. Just how have their prospects changed over the past three days — or have they not changed at all?

Houston Astros

Opponent: Seattle Mariners

After all the talk about the American League East being baseball’s best division, the only group with two teams in the division series turns out to be the West. Houston will take on division foe Seattle after winning the division by 16 games over the M’s during the 162-game season. The Astros won 12 of 19 against Seattle en route to their fifth AL West title in six seasons.

However, watching the unflappable Mariners dispatch the Toronto Blue Jays over two days in a frenetic atmosphere at Rogers Centre this past weekend makes exactly none of that feel especially predictive about what we’ll see over the next week. The reason for that is a special kind of postseason momentum, an ethereal concept that we really can prove only after the fact. Whatever it is, it feels like Seattle has it.

Momentum exists only until it doesn’t, which is why it’s not a reliable analytical instrument. But there are things coming together for the Mariners that we saw manifest against Toronto. You have an ace in Luis Castillo on top of his game against a great lineup in a high-impact game. You have a hot reliever in Andres Munoz who can look untouchable. You have the unshakable fountain of youthful confidence in the form of Julio Rodriguez. You have an emergent folk hero in Cal Raleigh. You have an X factor on the pitching staff in rookie George Kirby, a starter who looked right at home closing out the Blue Jays.

Make no mistake, the Astros remain a strong favorite in the series, as they would have been against Toronto. Houston is a complete team with playoff-tested veterans leading the lineup, elite defense and perhaps the deepest and most versatile pitching staff in the postseason. Houston’s Justin Verlander will make his 31st postseason start in Game 1 on Tuesday, while Seattle’s Logan Gilbert will make his first … probably.

Verlander has been resting since a five-inning outing on Oct. 4 to finish what might turn out to be his third Cy Young-winning season. That will end up being six days of rest. This season, Verlander went 6-1 with a 0.63 ERA when going on six or more days of rest. These facts ought to be highly comforting to Astros fans who might be chomping at the bit.

After that, things are more up in the air. The biggest question in the series is how Seattle will maximize Castillo. Because there are scheduled days off after the first and second games of the series, for the Mariners to get two outings out of Castillo, they’ll have to use him on short rest at some point. Castillo has never made a start on three days’ rest in the regular season.

There are two choices: Start Castillo in Game 1 against Verlander and bring him back on normal rest for Game 4, if the series goes that far. Or start him in Game 2, then if the series goes the distance, you can bring him back for Game 5. Either way, for the Mariners, the more they see of Castillo the better. The opposite is true for the Astros.

Other than that, the other factors that might skew toward Seattle are soft and emotion-based — though that doesn’t mean they won’t matter. The Mariners have the look of a team gathering momentum at just the right time, like the Braves did last October. In Game 3, they’ll receive a major boost from a home crowd in Seattle that has been starving for playoff baseball for 21 years. And if there is a Game 4, the atmosphere will be even more intense then.

The Astros have been sitting back, resting up and getting ready to ramp up to playoff intensity. The Mariners will be surfing into Houston riding a wave of it.

Houston’s concern level: Rising

Opponent: Cleveland Guardians

Whether facing the Rays or the Guardians, the Yankees’ biggest concern remains the Yankees. And those concerns may or may not have been accentuated by the news that Chapman skipped a mandatory workout and will not be on New York’s American League Division Series roster. On one hand, this team was designed to have Chapman as an end-of-the-game hammer. On the other, he has been undependable enough that maybe it’s for the best if he watches from Florida.

Anyway, if the Yankees were paying attention to the Cleveland-Tampa Bay matchup, they realized a couple of things. First, that they probably won’t have to score a ton of runs to beat Cleveland. Second, that it’s a good thing, because they aren’t likely to score a ton of runs against Terry Francona’s run prevention dynamo.

Like the Mariners have with their ace Castillo, the Guardians face a quandary about how to set up their rotation against the Yankees. If they wanted to push Shane Bieber on short rest, they could have him in Games 1 and 4. Doing it that way means Triston McKenzie could start Game 2 on normal rest because of the off day after Game 1. Otherwise, he’d be going in Game 3, a full week after his weekend start against the Rays.

More likely, it’ll be Cal Quantrill in Game 1 and again in Game 4, while Bieber would go in Game 2 and McKenzie in Game 3. Bieber could then take the hill on short rest in a Game 5 if the series goes the distance. Quantrill is good enough that optimistic Guardians fans can hold out hope that he, Bieber and McKenzie run the table and short-rest scenarios won’t matter.

No matter what order Francona goes with, the hope for each of the starters will be to just get the game to Emmanuel Clase and Cleveland’s other high-octane relievers, all of whom will begin the ALDS with two full days of rest because of the Guardians’ sweep against the Rays. The Guardians’ edge over the Yankees in the bullpen matchup might not be as stark as that of the Yankees’ offense against the Cleveland offense, but when you factor in the challenge presented by the Guardians’ pitching and defense, it’s in that neighborhood.

None of this will matter if the Guardians don’t score more than the average of 1.2 runs per nine innings they put up against Tampa Bay. Whether or not that happens will be up to a Yankees staff that very much feels like it’s still in flux at just the wrong time of the season.

New York’s concern level: boiling over

Atlanta Braves

Opponent: Philadelphia Phillies

This is another LDS matchup between division opponents who weren’t particularly close to each other in the standings. The Braves beat the Phillies 11 out of 19 head-to-head meetings and finished 14 games better than the Phils in the NL East. In the old format, the Phillies would never have even gotten this opportunity because 6-seeds weren’t a thing.

But here they are, and Philadelphia’s next challenge will be a notch or two tougher than the one it faced against a very good St. Louis club. The Braves are the defending champs, first of all, and most of their roster has been through this before. And while we haven’t had a repeat champ since the 2000 Yankees, that’s a streak that is ripe to be broken, especially by a team that is in most ways better than the one that won it all last year.

There are two big things you look for in a postseason team primed to go on a surprising run: a hot bullpen that almost makes the manager’s decisions for him, and a red-hot hitter or two. The Braves had both things emerge last October. The Phillies didn’t really establish anything like that in their wild-card series win, but you can see what such a thing might look like.

Starting with the hitters, Bryce Harper’s Game 2 homer against the Cardinals was just one hit, but it was an encouraging sign for a club that really could use its best player going on a spree. Harper has had terrible health luck all season and his numbers were headed in the wrong direction down the stretch. The homer, a 435-foot bomb that left the bat at 112 mph off Miles Mikolas, was a bomb.

One hit, even one like that, is just one hit. But sometimes when a slugger squares one up like that it can be a sign that things are coming back into sync. If that’s the case, look out. Even so, the Phillies will need more than a hot Harper to beat Atlanta.

The bullpen part of the equation is also hard to read. Jose Alvarado has been dominant, and manager Rob Thomson can align him with the highest-leverage spots in the late innings to get three, four or even five outs. And Zach Eflin, normally a starter, looked like a promising end-of-game option in both games at St. Louis.

Tack on a one-two rotation punch of Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola that allowed zero runs over 13 innings in St. Louis, and there are some elements that appear to be aligning at the right time for the Phillies. Then again, one could argue that a lot of what went right for the Phillies over the weekend was simply the flip side of the many things that went wrong for the Cardinals.

Either way, the Braves are fully stocked, rested, confident and totally unconcerned about what may or may not be happening on the Phillies’ roster.

Atlanta’s concern level: steady and low

Los Angeles Dodgers

Opponent: San Diego Padres

We already pointed out how the Braves have to re-prove themselves against the Phillies, whom they finished ahead of by 14 games during the season. And the Astros have to do the same against the Mariners, who finished 16 games back of them. Well, the Dodgers might say, “Hold my beer.” That’s because the Dodgers are now matched against a rival whom they buried by 22 games during the season. In fact, the Padres weren’t even within 10 games of the Dodgers after the middle of July. And, oh yeah, the Dodgers beat San Diego 14 out of 19 times the teams played head-to-head.

So even after the Padres beat the 101-win Mets over three games at Citi Field, it’s going to be difficult to build a case that the Dodgers should be concerned about their SoCal foes beyond the usual acknowledgment of the randomness of playoff baseball and the vagaries of a short series.

The Padres’ starting pitching, which was so sharp down the stretch in lifting San Diego into the playoffs in the first place, remains on a roll. Yes, Blake Snell walked everyone from here to Staten Island on Saturday night, but he has been terrific over the past few weeks. Meanwhile, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove both dominated in their outings against the Mets.

However, by virtue of being the one wild-card winner to play on Sunday, the Padres will feel the full brunt of a format designed to reward those who earn a bye. This, along with the fact that the Padres couldn’t bring Max Scherzer or Jacob deGrom along with them on their cross-country flight, is much to the Dodgers’ collective delight.

The rotation puzzle for the Padres is complicated not just by their three-game set in New York because if Bob Melvin wants to keep his starters on normal rest, he’ll have to use his No. 4 starter in Games 1 and 5 against the Dodgers. The other option is a short rest outing in Game 5 by Darvish, if the Padres can get there.

The problem: While Darvish, Snell and Musgrove have been on point down the stretch, the same can’t be said of either Mike Clevinger, who has been ill, or Sean Manaea, the most likely fourth-starter options. It’s hard to envision the Padres getting past the Dodgers without getting more than one start from one or two of their hot starters, but that’s going to mean working on short rest.

This problem is exacerbated by the Padres’ top-heavy bullpen, which might have to put its depth to the test a little more than they’d like. Because of the way the games played out, the Padres didn’t have to ask much from Josh Hader, so maybe he can be leaned on a little more heavily against L.A.

Even so, the best formula for the Padres is to minimize the number of outs they need from the bridge guys between the starters and Hader. That’s going to be challenging not only because of where the rotation is right now in terms of usage but also because the Padres will be going up against a Dodgers lineup that makes it awfully tough to work deep into games even in the best of circumstances.

The win over the Mets was a great achievement for a Padres squad that has been through a lot this season. But there was little in that victory to suggest the Padres have closed the gap with the 111-win Dodgers. If anything, the opposite might have happened. But given the history between those teams, the next round is going to be an awful lot of fun anyway.

Dodgers’ concern level: “It never rains in Southern California”

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Where every team stands after the trade deadline

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Tuesday’s MLB trade deadline was highlighted by the deal that sent Nationals megastar Juan Soto to the Padres. And San Diego didn’t stop there, nabbing multiple other key players to help boost its chances at making the postseason.

However, the Padres weren’t the only team to add elements ahead of the deadline that will impact not only their long-term future but their playoff chances this season, too.

Where does every team stand post-deadline as they head into August?

Our expert panel has combined to rank every team in baseball based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts David Schoenfield, Bradford Doolittle, Jesse Rogers, Joon Lee and Alden Gonzalez to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.

Week 16 | Second-half preview | Preseason rankings

Record: 70-33

Previous ranking: 1

The Dodgers made a failed run at Soto, took a flier on Joey Gallo, made a modest upgrade to their bullpen in Chris Martin and didn’t add a starting pitcher, which outsiders identified as their greatest area of need. It was a much more conservative deadline approach than Dodgers fans have come to expect — and that’s largely because of the players who are on their way back. Dustin May, nearly 15 months removed from Tommy John surgery, has looked good in his rehab outings and could be a difference-maker for a rotation that already leads the majors in ERA. Blake Treinen, Brusdar Graterol and Danny Duffy could soon return to help fortify the bullpen. And down the road there’s Walker Buehler, who stands as a major wild card. In short: The Dodgers believe they have enough in house to win it all. — Gonzalez

Record: 70-36

Previous ranking: 2

The Yankees made several moves to improve their roster at the deadline, adding one of the top pitchers in Frankie Montas and shoring up the outfield with Andrew Benintendi and Harrison Bader. In the process, the team dealt Gallo to the Dodgers, Jordan Montgomery to the Cardinals and will no longer need to rely on Aaron Hicks for as much offensive production. New York could use the extra help after struggling throughout July, going 13-13. — Lee

Record: 68-38

Previous ranking: 3

Justin Verlander’s historic comeback from Tommy John surgery will surely turn his surgeon, Dr. Keith Meister, into an industry celebrity. Of course, Verlander himself has had plenty to do with his recovery, which has seen him return all the way back to his previous level at age 39. Going into his start on Thursday, Verlander is 14-3 with a 1.81 ERA, with his win and ERA totals both atop the American League. At this point, Verlander appears to be in a three-pitcher race for AL Cy Young honors, joining Tampa Bay’s Shane McClanahan and Chicago’s Dylan Cease. The amazing Shohei Ohtani is probably in that conversation as well. If Verlander wins it, that will be the ultimate statement that he’s completely back. He won the Cy Young in 2019, the year before he was injured, then appeared in just one game over 2020 and 2021. It’s remarkable. — Doolittle

Record: 65-38

Previous ranking: 4

The Mets added only around the edges — upsetting more than a few of their fans — with a platoon DH in Darin Ruf (.886 OPS against lefties) and reliever Mychal Givens (2.66 ERA with the Cubs). Earlier, though, they had acquired outfielder Tyler Naquin and DH Dan Vogelbach. It’s under the radar, but a Vogelbach/Ruf platoon should give the Mets one of the best DH options in the National League, after getting little production there most of the season. We’ll see if they regret not adding a lefty reliever. Oh, and they had one more addition: Jacob deGrom returned Tuesday, hit 102 mph and allowed one run over five innings with six K’s against an admittedly Triple-A-level Nationals lineup. — Schoenfield

Record: 60-46

Previous ranking: 7

Not sure if you heard, but the Padres did pretty well for themselves at the trade deadline. It took a massive haul of promising young talent — most notably C.J. Abrams, MacKenzie Gore and Robert Hassell III — but the Padres secured arguably the greatest pure hitter since Ted Williams in the middle of his age-23 season. They had put themselves in contention on the strength of a deep, strong pitching staff, and now they have added Soto — and Josh Bell and Brandon Drury — to a lineup that will soon be bolstered by the return of Fernando Tatis Jr. The Dodgers might have a big cushion in the NL West, but they’re in for a fight. — Gonzalez

Record: 63-42

Previous ranking: 5

The Braves made another flurry of trades at the deadline, acquiring starting pitcher Jake Odorizzi from the Astros (for reliever Will Smith), reliever Raisel Iglesias from the Angels (for pitchers Tucker Davidson and Jesse Chavez), outfielder Robbie Grossman from the Tigers and infielder Ehire Adrianza from the Nationals. The biggest news, however, was that somehow in the middle of all that, the Braves signed Austin Riley to a 10-year, $212 million contract extension.

“It’s definitely a goal for me to be here my whole career,” Riley said. “The guys who have come before me, like Hank Aaron and Chipper Jones, it’s pretty special to know you could potentially have that opportunity.” — Schoenfield

Record: 58-46

Previous ranking: 6

As the Blue Jays have climbed to second in the American League East standings, one of the keys for this team moving forward will be Jose Berrios, who has a 4.96 ERA this season. There is cause for optimism with Berrios, however, after the righty posted a 3.00 ERA in 36 innings over the course of July, striking out 42 batters — his highest total of any month so far this season. — Lee

Record: 57-46

Previous ranking: 8

You have to admire the Brewers. They’re willing to do whatever they think is right to win now and keep their contention window open for as long as possible. The trade of Josh Hader was meant for exactly that. Being one step ahead is a fine line to walk while trying to win at the same time, but once the dust settles, Milwaukee might not have lost all that much in the pen. There were some cracks in Hader’s armor recently, and the Brewers were banking on being able to replace him now. They probably would have in the near future anyway, as his salary was only going up. — Rogers

Record: 55-48

Previous ranking: 9

Sure, the Cards didn’t pick up Montas- or Luis Castillo-caliber starters at the deadline, but, like last year, they made moves on the edges that could vault them into first place eventually. Jordan Montgomery and Jose Quintana fill back-end needs, while Chris Stratton does so in the middle of the pen. But is it enough? J.A. Happ and Jon Lester helped the Cards to the postseason after being acquired in July last year, but St. Louis wasn’t able to go deep into October. The same could be true of the roster this season. — Rogers

Record: 57-49

Previous ranking: 12

The Mariners surprised everyone in getting Castillo from the Reds, but it cost them three of their top five prospects, including shortstops Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo. However, Castillo is under team control for another season, giving them a top-of-the-rotation starter to help perhaps limit the innings of George Kirby and Logan Gilbert down the stretch, which means the Mariners will head into 2023 with six good starting pitcher options. They didn’t add anything of note to the offense, however, a lineup that is without Julio Rodriguez for another week after he got hit on the wrist. They’ll get Mitch Haniger back soon, but he’s going to have to make a huge impact. — Schoenfield

Record: 56-48

Previous ranking: 13

The Phillies made three significant deals on deadline day, picking up starter Noah Syndergaard, reliever David Robertson and center fielder Brandon Marsh, while also acquiring shortstop Edmundo Sosa a couple of days before. The Marsh trade, for catching prospect Logan O’Hoppe, might be the most intriguing. Marsh gives the Phillies their best defensive center fielder in years, although he has struggled at the plate in his first full season in the majors, hitting .226/.284/.353 for the Angels. O’Hoppe, who played in the Futures Game, was hitting .275/.392/.496 with 15 home runs at Double-A. The Phillies gave up a good prospect, but they needed a legitimate center fielder and will hope Marsh’s bat comes around as they push for a wild-card spot. — Schoenfield

Record: 55-49

Previous ranking: 11

Depth, depth, depth is the key to the rest of the Rays’ season. The team has 15 players on the injured list — and quite a few of those are members of the pitching staff. Tampa Bay misses Wander Franco, who still ranks second on the team in WAR among position players. The offense has relied on Yandy Diaz, who’s hitting .286/.395/.398 with five homers across 93 games played so far this season. — Lee

Record: 55-49

Previous ranking: 10

The Twins continue to cling to a narrow division lead while stumbling on the field. Minnesota has dropped 12 of 19 games dating back to July 6. During that span, the Twins have given up 5.8 runs per game, the second most in the majors, and only two teams have given up more homers. Of course, the Twins hope their deadline pickups will bolster the staff, but the guys on hand need to get going as well. Since the beginning of July, the Twins’ rotation has posted an aggregate 6.09 ERA, with Joe Ryan faring the best at 4.55. Every other starter with more than one outing has put an ERA of 5.92 or worse since July 1. — Doolittle

Record: 54-50

Previous ranking: 15

The Guardians didn’t do anything at the trade deadline for us to talk about (almost literally), and on the field, Cleveland continues to cling to the break-even line along with the other contenders in its division. To keep things upbeat, let’s focus on the continued dominance of closer Emmanuel Clase. Clase hasn’t given up a run since July 6. Over nine straight outings beginning July 11, Clase threw one inning each time while facing the minimum of three batters. He allowed a sole baserunner against the Rays on July 29, then promptly induced a double play. With 23 saves in 25 chances and a miniscule 1.22 season ERA, Clase has become something close to a sure thing at the back of the Cleveland bullpen. — Doolittle

Record: 51-53

Previous ranking: 14

The Giants mostly stood pat leading up to the deadline, making only minor moves that greatly paled in comparison to the Padres’ haul and put them no closer to the world-beating Dodgers. It was partly a sign of the Giants’ minor league system generally being underwhelming and partly a sign — if you’re an optimist — that the team still believes it can contend coming off a 107-win season. Despite their struggles, the Giants find themselves only 5½ games back of the final playoff spot. And they still have Carlos Rodon. — Gonzalez

Record: 52-51

Previous ranking: 17

For a team that has been mired in mediocrity all season, Chicago not only remains in the thick of the playoff race but has the front-line talent to do damage if it can get back to the postseason. At the same time, an already thin depth chart has been diluted by injuries, which makes the White Sox’s margin for error surprisingly small for a team with that kind of ceiling. That makes things like Tim Anderson’s recent suspension for bumping an umpire that much more egregious. Anderson is passionate and a leader in the Chicago clubhouse, but more than anything, manager Tony La Russa just needs to be able to pencil his star shortstop into his lineup every day. — Doolittle

Record: 53-51

Previous ranking: 18

The Orioles have taken a major step forward in their club development, but the team also traded away first baseman Trey Mancini, who has been one of the faces of the franchise during their rebuild, and closer Jorge Lopez. Baltimore lost back-to-back series against the Rays and Yankees after pulling off a 10-game win streak. This might not be the team’s year to make the playoffs, but it’s hard not to be optimistic. — Lee

Record: 53-53

Previous ranking: 16

With Boston struggling heading into the trade deadline, executive Chaim Bloom took a multipronged approach to the team’s roster building, both adding and subtracting at the deadline. Frustrations seem to be building in the clubhouse as shortstop and team leader Xander Bogaerts expressed frustration over the team’s approach, saying he couldn’t see how the team got better by trading catcher Christian Vazquez. How the team performs for the rest of the season will play a role in how high the pressure will be on the front office heading into 2023. — Lee

Record: 46-57

Previous ranking: 20

Did the Rangers know there was a trade deadline this week? Why are Martin Perez and Matt Moore still on the team? With the season going nowhere and both pitchers having surprisingly good years, it would have made sense for Texas to capitalize on them. Of course, it takes two to tango. Here’s this thought from a rival exec: Teams who are out of the race this year, but think they could be in it for a wild-card spot next year, are holding on to players with that hope in mind. Texas fits that description. — Rogers

Record: 47-57

Previous ranking: 19

In the end, the Marlins made just one minor trade, sending relievers Anthony Bass and Zach Pop to the Blue Jays for minor league infielder Jordan Groshans. They ended up keeping Pablo Lopez. While it didn’t help his trade value that Lopez allowed 12 hits and six runs in 2⅔ innings against the Mets in his last start, the injuries to Max Meyer (Tommy John surgery, meaning he’ll be out all of 2023) and Trevor Rogers (back spasms) just reinforce how thin the Marlins’ rotation actually is. On the bright side, Jesus Luzardo returned and pitched five solid innings in his first start since May 10. — Schoenfield

Record: 46-58

Previous ranking: 21

Outside of sending David Peralta to the Rays and Luke Weaver to the Royals, the D-backs took a conservative approach to the deadline, choosing against dealing a large segment of their veteran players in what would have constituted a rebuild — as has been their custom. Christian Walker and Joe Mantiply, two of their most intriguing trade candidates, stayed. So did everyone else. The reason, it seems, is two-fold: 1. The D-backs want to avoid the misery of another 100-plus-loss season. And 2. They want to surround their young nucleus with veteran players in hopes that it will accelerate their development in the major leagues. — Gonzalez

Record: 44-59

Previous ranking: 23

The prospect of acquiring Ohtani evolved into a pipe dream for rival executives. The Angels were never seriously shopping him, but it does seem as though they attempted to get a feel for his market in the event that they trade him over the offseason. GM Perry Minasian told reporters Tuesday that he still sees a team that can contend, but that the Angels have to “find more depth.” There is no faster way to secure that than by trading Ohtani, but perhaps that’s also the quickest way to trigger the type of rebuild the Angels have long avoided. A fascinating offseason awaits. — Gonzalez

Record: 46-60

Previous ranking: 22

Stay weird, Rockies. They were the only team not to make a single deal prior to the trade deadline, a shocking approach given where they reside in the standings. Starting pitcher Chad Kuhl, shortstop Jose Iglesias and relievers Alex Colome and Carlos Estevez are all pending free agents who could have brought back young players to help bolster the team’s future, to varying degrees. But for some reason, the Rockies held on to them. Their closer, Daniel Bard, would have been one of the most coveted arms in the market, but instead, they extended him with a two-year, $19 million contract. The Rockies are nowhere near good enough to contend in a division headlined by the Dodgers, Padres and Giants, and yet it seems as if they’re content with the status quo. It boggles the mind. — Gonzalez

Record: 41-61

Previous ranking: 24

The Cubs added to their farm system this week but didn’t move bigger names in Willson Contreras or Ian Happ. It means their record in the second half might not be as bad as some predicted, but most of it will be used as further tryouts for younger players, anyway. Contreras will get a qualifying offer, which he’ll likely turn down after the season. At least the Cubs will get some compensation if he leaves as a free agent. — Rogers

Record: 42-61

Previous ranking: 27

The Reds’ dealings are complete after moving Castillo, Drury, Tyler Naquin, Tommy Pham and Tyler Mahle. By all accounts, they maximized their return on all that talent but are now years from contending. Still, the haul they got for Castillo alone provides a glimmer of hope. It’s the same plan the Cubs are following: Developing the talent they have, both from the draft and trade acquisitions, followed by flipping some of that talent when it proves to be redundant. But first, guys have to establish themselves. That starts for the Reds now and into next season. — Rogers

Record: 41-62

Previous ranking: 25

Pittsburgh falls under one of those teams that might think it has a shot next season at a wild-card spot. You can break up your team only so many years in a row before you go the other way. The Pirates are hoping to turn things around, as they debuted a ton of touted prospects. Winning with them, however, is a whole different ball game, so we’ll see if they supplement their roster during the winter. — Rogers

Record: 42-64

Previous ranking: 28

The heat on Tigers GM Al Avila is increasing. After an aggressive offseason, Detroit has face-planted, and the additions of high-profile free agents Javier Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez have not worked, at least so far. Prized rookie Spencer Torkelson struggled and had to be demoted. Then the name of young lefty Tarik Skubal leaked into the deadline rumor mill, though he ultimately wasn’t traded. Finally, with a slew of coveted relievers on the trade market, little actually happened. There will be some hard questions asked in Detroit after the season. — Doolittle

Record: 41-63

Previous ranking: 26

The Royals picked up veteran righty Weaver from Arizona at the trade deadline, a move that flew under the radar with so many other high-profile trades dominating the news. Weaver looked like a rising star a few years ago, when he was a key component in the trade that moved Paul Goldschmidt from Arizona to St. Louis. Then arm problems set in, and Weaver has never gotten back on track. He finished his Diamondbacks career with a 9-19 mark and 92 ERA+. Still just 28, Weaver has been hit harder than ever this season, even though his velocity has actually ticked up. Primarily still a two-pitch pitcher, the Royals will turn him over to pitching coach Cal Eldred in hopes of turning this low-level move into a deadline steal. — Doolittle

Record: 39-66

Previous ranking: 29

After trading away Montas to the Yankees, the foundation of this Athletics team lies with starter Paul Blackburn and outfielder Ramon Laureano. The team had a strong start to the month of July, but now the focus shifts to whether their future lies in Oakland or somewhere else. Casino magnate Phil Ruffin met with the Oakland brass to talk about a potential site for a new ballpark in Las Vegas this past week. — Lee

Record: 36-69

Previous ranking: 30

Soto’s final career stats with the Nationals: 565 games, 119 home runs, .291 average, .427 on-base percentage, one batting title, one World Series title, three World Series home runs and one mega-trade for all time, to cap it off. How did the Nationals make out in the deal with the Padres? Check back in a few years is the easy answer. Abrams and Gore have been two of the highest-rated prospects for a few years, but there are still questions about Abrams’ power potential, and Gore is currently sidelined by a sore elbow. Don’t be surprised if Hassell ends up being the best player of the group — with James Wood, who is built like Aaron Judge, a potential star if it all comes together. — Schoenfield

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