By: David O’Brien, Keith Law and Andrew Baggarly
Fred McGriff was elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame via the Contemporary Era Committee Sunday night. Here’s what you need to know:
- The Contemporary Era Committee consists of 16 members, comprised of members of the National Baseball Hall of Fame, executives and veteran media members.
- McGriff was no longer eligible for election by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA).
- Among those who did not receive the necessary 12 votes from the 16-person committee: Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, Dale Murphy, Rafael Palmeiro and Don Mattingly.
Evaluating McGriff’s career
McGriff played 19 seasons from 1986 through 2004 and hit .284 with 493 home runs, 1,550 RBIs and .886 OPS in 2,460 games. He finished in the top 10 in league MVP balloting six times including a fourth place in 1993, the year he was traded from San Diego to Atlanta in July and helped guide the 104-win Braves past San Francisco in one of the great playoff races of the modern era.
The first baseman was a five-time All-Star and three-time Silver Slugger Award winner, and McGriff thrived in postseason play, particularly with the Braves. He hit .303 with 37 RBIs and a .917 OPS in 50 career postseason games, and with Atlanta he had 10 home runs, a .411 OBP, a .581 slugging percentage and .992 OPS in 45 postseason games.
During the Braves’ 1995 postseason run to the city’s first pro-sports title, McGriff hit .333 (19-for-57) with six doubles, four homers, nine RBIs and 1.065 OPS, including two homers and a .955 OPS in the World Series win against Cleveland.
He had a career-best 37 home runs in 1993 with San Diego and Atlanta, the sixth of McGriff’s seven consecutive seasons with more than 30 homers. Though he never had more than 37, he had 10 seasons with at least 30 homers, and was the home-run leader once in each league.
McGriff had eight seasons with more than 100 RBIs, six with a .300 or higher batting average, 11 seasons with an OPS of at least .923, five with more than 90 walks, and only three seasons with more than 120 strikeouts. In 1989 with Toronto he led the AL in homers (36), OPS (.924) and OPS+ (165).
Another stat that often goes overlooked: McGriff played more than 150 games in 10 of his 19 seasons, and that’s not counting 1995, when he led the National League by playing all 144 games for Atlanta in a season that started late due to the work stoppage that had begun the previous fall.
If not for games lost to the work stoppage – the Braves played only 114 games in 1994; McGriff played 113 – there is little doubt he would have finished with more than 500 career homers, which some believe was one reason he was left off the ballot of many voters years ago when statistical milestones such as 3,000 hits, 500 homers or 300 wins virtually assured HOF induction.
He was well on his way to a career high for homers in 1994 before the season was halted, finishing with 34 in 113 games. McGriff had 61 homers in 257 games during those 1994-1995 seasons with Atlanta, playing all but one team game in that span. His 61 home runs in 258 team games in those two years projects to 76 homers if the full seasons had been played, and the additional 15 homers – or even if he’d slumped and hit only half that many – would’ve given McGriff at least 500. — O’Brien
Significance of McGriff getting into the Hall of Fame
McGriff is the most inoffensive candidate the committee could possibly have put in the Hall of Fame. He finished his career with 52.6 rWAR and 56.9 fWAR, making him neither a definite Hall of Famer nor a player who doesn’t belong at all. His 493 home runs — which in a pre-2000 era would have made him a slam dunk — puts him 8th among inactive players who aren’t in the Hall, with six of the guys ahead of him tainted by at least rumors of PED use. One of the arguments in his favor has long been that he’s one of the few sluggers of his era who was never hit with those allegations, and given what else happened in the committee’s voting, that may actually have boosted McGriff’s results. — Law
Evaluating Bonds, Clemens’ Hall of Fame chances
Last year, Bonds received 66 percent of the BBWAA vote in his 10th and final ballot with the writers. He got much less support when a committee of Hall of Fame players, executives and media members reviewed his candidacy for the first time Sunday. Bonds received “fewer than four votes,” according to the Hall. It’s possible he didn’t receive any votes at all. But percentages really don’t matter here. It’s all gamesmanship.
Committee members could vote for no more than three of eight candidates. If it became clear in the committee’s discussions that Bonds didn’t have 12 votes in the room, then it would’ve been a waste to check his name. In other words, getting fewer than four votes has to be viewed as a disappointment for Bonds, but it doesn’t crater his candidacy. Look at Don Mattingly, who received little to no support in past committee votes but received eight votes on Sunday. Perhaps if the committee composition changes enough by the time the Contemporary Era panel votes again in December 2025, then Bonds might stand a better chance. Or maybe Bonds gets shut out again while Jeff Kent sails through in his first time on a committee ballot. Which would be hilarious. — Baggarly
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Bonds and Clemens received fewer than four votes each and I can only conclude that this means neither of them will ever get into the Hall of Fame without a ticket. This was the last real hope for either player, and it couldn’t have gone worse for them, as they’d have to triple that vote total to earn enshrinement. So the all-time leader in home runs won’t be in the Hall, even though Bonds is also the all-time leader in WAR on Baseball Reference by 0.1 over Babe Ruth. He’s seventh all-time in OBP, eighth in slugging, sixth in RBI, first in walks and third in runs scored. New stats, old stats, awards, any way you measure it, he’s one of the best players in MLB history.
Clemens is third all-time in WAR, the best pitcher since integration by a huge margin, owner of the most Cy Young Awards, third all-time in strikeouts and ninth in pitcher wins. Regardless of your personal view on performance-enhancing drugs, the Contemporary Era Committee has made it extremely clear what their view is, and it means Bonds and Clemens are out – and it’s a terrible harbinger for Alex Rodríguez, too. — Law
Required reading
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(Photo: Daniel Shirey / MLB Photos via Getty Images)