Last season, Seattle finished above league average in defending designed quarterback runs and scrambles. Carroll’s 2021 Seahawks held opponents to just 2.5 yards per game on designed quarterback runs (ranking second in the NFL, per Next Gen Stats) and 12.0 scramble rush yards (tied for 12th). The collective speed and quickness of the Seahawks’ front line neutralizes swift quarterbacks attempting to scoot around the corner on designed and impromptu runs.
If San Francisco’s quarterback running game is bottled up, Lance’s passing woes are magnified, particularly as an intermediate passer. The 22-year-old is the only quarterback with zero touchdown passes on intermediate throws — 10 to 19 yards — since 2021 (min. 25 attempts). Related note: Jimmy G has 10 touchdown passes on such throws since 2021, seventh-most in the NFL.
Part of Lance’s issues in Week 1 could be attributed to George Kittle’s absence due to a groin injury. The Pro Bowler is one of the best in the business at his position, and his presence allows the 49ers to attack the middle of the field. With Kittle sidelined, the Bears were able to pay closer attention to Deebo Samuel on the perimeter.
Furthermore, Kittle sets the edge in the ground attack with his outstanding blocking skills, and re-establishing a dominant running game is key to Lance’s development. If the 49ers are able to run the ball effectively, it reduces the amount of pressure Lance faces on passing downs, as the defensive line and linebackers are forced to respect the threat of the run before attacking the quarterback. Considering how Lance has struggled against pressure (SEE: a career 35.6 passer rating against pressure, per NGS), the combination of runs and play-action passes would minimize one of his biggest weaknesses.
As of Friday, Kittle is questionable for Sunday’s game. Even if the tight end is back, though, Lance will need to face his demons against a Seahawks defense that has traditionally played well against the 49ers. Carroll has a knack for crafting game plans that befuddle athletic quarterbacks, and his track record against the San Francisco suggests he has Shanahan’s number.
In a huge early-season contest for the 49ers, Shanahan will need to build a game plan that creates easy throws for his quarterback while leaning into Lance’s skills as a runner. In addition, the creative play designer must execute the plan while keeping the Niners’ top playmakers heavily involved in the action. While that is easier said than done, it’s necessary to keep a lid on a budding quarterback controversy in the Bay Area.