While the 49ers find themselves with more draft picks this year than they had a season ago, and with more holes for those draft picks to fill, it still wouldn’t be a surprise to see them trade back in the first round from the No. 12 overall pick. ESPN’s Todd McShay illustrated one scenario where San Francisco moves back to pick up some significant draft capital, but his selection is a little head-scratching.
A trade back would make a lot of sense for the 49ers in a scenario where all four quarterbacks go in the first four picks, which is how McShay’s mock plays out. If San Francisco was going to stay put at 12 for a quarterback, it’d probably need to be one of the top prospects like Zach Wilson, Justin Fields or Trey Lance. The likelihood they take a QB for the sake of taking one with the 12th pick seems low.
With no top QBs slipping, the 49ers trade with the Bears. Chicago lands the 12th pick in exchange for No. 20, No. 52 and either a first or second-round selection in the 2022 draft. That’s a massive haul for San Francisco to jump back eight spots where they’d still pick in the top 20. It would also give them two second-round picks that they could use to either maneuver up into the back end of the first round, or deal to scoop a third-round pick after sending theirs to Washington in the Trent Williams trade.
All of this makes a lot of sense for San Francisco. Their pick via McShay is a touch perplexing though given their laundry list of needs. With the No. 20 choice, the 49ers in McShay’s mock draft snag TCU safety Trevon Moehrig.
The 6-2, 202-pound safety could conceivably be a long-term answer for the 49ers’ secondary with Jaquiski Tartt headed for free agency and Jimmie Ward’s future uncertain beyond his contract which ends after the 2022 season. Moehrig isn’t likely to step into a box safety role like the one Tartt often occupied. If the 49ers pick him, it could signal a change in defensive philosophy, or a move for Ward to nickel cornerback with K’Waun Williams tabbed for unrestricted free agency.
Another player available at No. 20 is Michigan defensive end Kwity Paye, who goes 21st to the Colts in McShay’s mock. Paye is a 6-4, 272-pound defensive end who racked up 16.5 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks over his final 16 games for the Wolverines. He’s a good athlete with some versatility that could play well in a 49ers front that desperately needs edge help.
While the player taken with the pick can be debated, and the team’s needs will likely change after free agency, this kind of trade back can be expected if the offer is there. Unless the 49ers believe there’s a can’t-miss prospect at 12, it’d behoove them to slide back a few spots to pick up some draft capital that gives them more flexibility on Days 2 and 3 in a year where they need to restock their roster with cheap rookie talent.