No. 3 TCU completed the biggest upset in College Football Playoff history after shocking No. 2 Michigan 51-45 and becoming the first Big 12 team to ever win a playoff game. The Horned Frogs came into the game as 8-point underdogs, according to Caesar’s Sportsbook.
Prior to TCU’s thrilling win, the biggest upset in CFP history came in the 2014 semifinal between Alabama and Ohio State when the No. 4 Buckeyes were 7-point underdogs to No. 1 Alabama in the Sugar Bowl but won 42-35 on their way to a national title. TCU was also considered a far bigger underdog than No. 4 seed Alabama was against No. 1 seed Clemson in 2017 when the Crimson Tide won 24-6 in the Sugar Bowl semi.
After giving up a 54-yard run to Donovan Edwards on the first play of the game, TCU took over in Glendale, Arizona. Safety Bud Clark had a pick six and fumble recovery in the end zone, while the Horned Frogs defense as a whole held the vaunted Wolverines rushing offense to just 132 yards on 39 carries after the first play. Heisman finalist quarterback Max Duggan had both two passing and two rushing touchdowns in the victory.
Michigan would have needed to put together the largest comeback in CFP history after going down by 19 points in the third quarter. However, quarterback J.J. McCarthy put together a handful of big-time throws to give the Wolverines a chance down the stretch. Michigan scored a touchdown with 3:18 remaining and got the ball back with a chance to take the lead, but TCU forced a turnover on downs to clinch the win.
Comebacks have not been in the Wolverines’ DNA during their magical two-year run. Michigan had not trailed by more than one score since its 34-11 loss to Georgia in the 2021 College Football Playoff. The biggest deficit Michigan has overcome during its two Big Ten championship runs are seven-point deficits to Ohio State and Illinois this season.
TCU now moves on to the 2023 College Football Playoff National Championship in Los Angeles, California. The last team with the biggest upset in CFP history — 2014 Ohio State — went on to win the national championship. The Frogs have two national championships in program history, but none since 1938.