7:50 pm: Scherzer is willing to waive his no-trade right to facilitate a deal to Los Angeles, reports Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (Twitter link).
7:44 pm: Dodgers starter Josiah Gray is believed to be part of discussions between the teams, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). Meanwhile, the Padres appear to be “moving on” from their hopes of landing Scherzer, according to Acee.
7:27 pm: Catching prospect Keibert Ruiz would be part of the Nationals’ return if the deal is completed, reports Rosenthal.
7:14 pm: The Dodgers are making significant progress on a deal to acquire stars Max Scherzer and Trea Turner from the Nationals, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic echoes Passan’s report but adds that “hurdles remain” in getting the deal across the finish line. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune suggests the Padres — reported to be on the verge of a Scherzer acquisition this afternoon — are now pessimistic about their chances of landing the three-time Cy Young award winner.
It’s a stunning development, one that would have massive repercussions in the National League playoff race. Scherzer and Turner are arguably the top two players on the trade market. The Dodgers acquiring both in a package deal — just a few hours after their division rivals had been expected to land Scherzer — would be a league-altering move if the deal is pushed across the finish line.
Scherzer is one of the best pitchers of his generation, and the future Hall of Famer has continued to pitch at a level close to peak form. He’s tossed 111 innings across nineteen starts, working to a 2.76 ERA/3.59 FIP. He’s given up a few home runs (1.46 HR/9), but Scherzer’s strikeout and walk numbers are still among the game’s best. The eight-time All-Star has punched out 34.3% of batters faced while handing out free passes to a meager 6.5% of opponents. Among starters with 50+ innings pitched, only Jacob deGrom, Tyler Glasnow, Patrick Sandoval and Shane Bieber have generated swinging strikes at a higher clip than Scherzer’s 16.5% mark.
It’s the continuation of what has been a remarkable tenure in Washington. Signed to a seven-year, $210MM deal over the 2014-15 offseason, the right-hander entered today’s outing with a 2.80 ERA/2.91 FIP across 1223 innings for the Nats. It proved to be one of the most successful free agent investments in recent memory. Scherzer won back-to-back NL Cy Young awards in 2016-17. He was selected to the All-Star game six times, with the lone exception due to the cancelation of last year’s festivities. And Scherzer was integral to the Nationals’ 2019 World Series title, tossing 30 frames of 2.40 ERA ball during that year’s postseason run.
Incredibly, Scherzer’s likely the second-most valuable part of the Dodgers’ potential haul. While he’s slated to hit free agency at the end of this season, Turner’s controllable next season via arbitration. The 28-year-old has been a quality player since breaking into the big leagues in 2015, but he’s developed into a true superstar over the past couple seasons. Since the start of the 2020 campaign, Turner’s hitting .327/.378/.546 (145 wRC+) with 30 home runs and 33 stolen bases across 155 games and 679 plate appearances.
Turner’s one of the top few players in the sport, even if he rather remarkably didn’t make an All-Star team until this season. In addition to that high-end offense, he’s one of the game’s most dangerous baserunners and a fine defensive shortstop. FanGraphs estimates Turner’s been worth seven wins above replacement over the past two years, a mark that trails only Fernando Tatís Jr. among position players.
A good portion of Turner’s overall value comes from his aforementioned ability to play shortstop. It’s not precisely clear whether he’d continue to do so in Los Angeles, though, where Corey Seager is also one of the game’s stars. Turner also has some experience manning second base and in center field, and the Dodgers have never been shy about moving players around the diamond defensively.
Seager is slated to hit free agency at the end of this season, where he’ll be one of the top options on the open market. The Dodgers could move Turner around the diamond for the remainder of this season and plug him as their regular shortstop come 2022 if Seager signs elsewhere. Regardless of their long-term vision, it’s unquestionable that adding Turner to the roster will be a massive boon to a position player that is already among the league’s best.
More to come.