Carlos Correa’s Twins return: 10 domino effects from Minnesota’s big move

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Carlos Correa’s unexpected return to Minnesota after $300 million-plus agreements with the Giants and Mets fell through is one of the biggest stories of the MLB offseason and the most shocking signing in Twins history (and we’ve treated it as such with wall-to-wall coverage).

But there are so many moving parts involved, and so many domino effects, that there is still plenty to explore and a lot of questions that will need answering. Here are 10 of them that are on my mind after attending Correa’s (re-)introductory press conference Wednesday at Target Field.

Too many shortstops?

Three of the Twins’ top five prospects are shortstops, so it’s natural to wonder if signing Correa to a long-term deal blocks Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis and Austin Martin. However, many top prospects start out as shortstops only to slide down the defensive spectrum as they get closer to the majors. Miguel Sanó was once a “shortstop prospect,” as were Brian Dozier and Trevor Plouffe.

It’s more often a starting point than a destination, as potential MLB shortstops are weeded out on the way to the big leagues. Some, like Nick Gordon, wind up in the outfield. Some, like Jorge Polanco, go to second base. Some, like Wander Javier, never reach the majors at all. Even among top-100 global prospects, half of “shortstop prospects” fail to become major-league shortstops.

As noted in my annual Twins top 40 prospects list, it’s hard to find an evaluator who believes Martin can stick at shortstop, and opinions about Lee doing so are mixed at best. Lewis has already played shortstop in the majors, but he was seen by some as relatively stretched there and he’s now rehabbing from back-to-back torn ACLs, putting his future at the position in further question.

Playing shortstop in the big leagues is incredibly difficult and the odds are often stacked against even the cream of the prospect crop, which is why legit, Gold Glove-caliber shortstops like Correa are so valuable. If a team gets a chance to lock in one of the league’s elite shortstops, they do it and worry about how the other pieces fit later. It’s one of those nice problems to have.

“I will take having more shortstops than we have spots every day of the week,” president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said. “That tends to lead to good outcomes over time in different spots on the team. If you can play shortstop, you can move around on the (infield). And you’re probably going to be pretty good at that.”

Third base futures

Eventually, of course, Correa will also likely change positions, probably to third base. That’s a very common career path for star shortstops in their 30s, with Cal Ripken Jr. being a prominent example. Correa actually agreed to switch to third base now, at age 28, as part of his deal with the Mets, who have four-time All-Star shortstop Francisco Lindor.

There are no such plans for the Twins because Correa was named MLB’s best-fielding shortstop in 2021 and was very solid there last season. However, if his range slips midway through the six-year contract, or during the four additional option years, Correa has already expressed a willingness to move to third base if it makes the Twins a better team.

“Prior to all of this, when we started the conversation at the beginning of the offseason and we made our initial proposal, we had already been talking about that a little bit,” Falvey said. “Just because you’re trying to crystal ball 10 years of a player’s career. Independent of health, we have always thought there’s the possibility of that. He profiles exceptionally well at third base on a lot of levels.”

These go to 11

And make no mistake, this contract is structured in an incredibly uncommon way that makes it very possible Correa will spend a full decade with the Twins. Six years are guaranteed, for a combined $200 million. And then there are four team options with decreasing salaries that can also automatically vest if Correa reaches playing-time thresholds or wins awards in the previous season.

For instance, in the deal’s first non-guaranteed year, 2029, the Twins hold a $25 million team option that vests with 575 plate appearances, a Silver Slugger win, a top-five MVP finish or postseason MVP wins. If any of those things happen in 2028, his 2029 salary becomes guaranteed at $25 million. And even if they don’t happen, the Twins can still choose to keep Correa for 2029 at that price.

It’s the same story for 2030, 2031 and 2032, except the salaries drop from $20 million to $15 million to $10 million, and the plate appearances fall from 550 to 525 to 502. It’s structured such that the Twins can hit eject any time after six years if Correa is injured or struggling, but they can also receive up to four more years of value at under-market salaries if he’s still performing well.

And, unlike Correa’s initial three-year, $105.3 million deal with the Twins last spring, there are zero opt-outs involved. He also receives a full no-trade clause. This is a contract specifically designed to make it as likely as possible for Correa to finish his career in Minnesota, and perhaps play as many as 11 total seasons in a Twins uniform. Of note: He spent seven seasons in Houston.

“We want him to finish his career as part of this organization,” Falvey said. “It’s structured that way. It’s built that way. One thing that was pretty clear, Carlos wasn’t hunting opt-outs for this conversation. He was sure about us. So that’s where the no-trade provision came in. He wants to be here. So that’s something that we wanted to find a way to make happen.”

Kyle Farmer’s fit

Kyle Farmer sat atop the Twins’ shortstop depth chart for almost two months after coming over from the Reds in a mid-November trade. He was acquired to be a capable but inexpensive placeholder, filling the position until Lewis’ likely midseason return or, as it turned out, the Twins re-signed Correa. Now that the Twins no longer need a placeholder shortstop, Farmer can shift to a utility role.

Farmer was Cincinnati’s primary shortstop the past two seasons, starting 213 total games there, but he also made 43 starts at third base and has experience at second base, first base and left field as well. He’s even played catcher as recently as 2019, so he can serve as an emergency option behind the plate. Matching last season’s 583 plate appearances is unlikely, but Farmer will have a sizable role.

Depth is understandably a priority for the Twins after last season’s never-ending injuries. Farmer is a low-end starting shortstop, but he’s a high-end backup and reasonably priced with a projected $5.9 million salary via arbitration. He’s also under team control for 2024, so the Twins can either keep him in a backup role again or look to trade him if/when Lewis proves capable of backing up Correa.

Payroll projections

Correa will be paid $36 million in 2023, which brings the projected Opening Day payroll to roughly $150 million. That’s in line with last season’s spending, which started around $140 million and ballooned past $150 million due to the trade deadline pickups and numerous injury fill-ins. For now, the Twins’ payroll ranks 17th out of 30 teams, which is exactly where it ranked in 2022.

In general, league-wide spending rises annually, so it’s reasonable to assume the Twins still have at least a little room before reaching their self-imposed payroll limit. Beyond that, they could clear $8.5 million in 2023 salary by trading Max Kepler, which seems likely after adding Joey Gallo to what was already a logjam of left-handed-hitting corner outfielders.

Right-handed thump

Kyle Garlick was designated for assignment to make 40-man roster space for Correa, suggesting the Twins could be planning to bring in a different right-handed-hitting outfielder to complement those many lefty bats. Garlick fared reasonably well in a platoon role the past two seasons, hitting .256/.303/.534 versus lefties, but he’s a non-factor against righties and injury prone.

Garlick got a one-year, $750,000 deal from the Twins in November to avoid arbitration. Much like with Jharel Cotton and Jake Cave last season, the Twins are likely hoping that guaranteed salary, which is roughly 10 times the minor-league norm, will make Garlick more likely to pass through waivers unclaimed so that he can be stashed as Triple-A depth.

However, losing Garlick would turn what was already a roster weakness into a gaping hole. Garlick, Byron Buxton and Gilberto Celestino are the only right-handed-hitting outfielders on the 40-man roster, and Celestino has yet to show he can knock around left-handed pitchers. Andrew McCutchen, Trey Mancini and Adam Duvall are unsigned free agents who could fill the role well.

But there might also be an overlooked in-house option. Falvey said Wednesday that Farmer is a viable outfielder despite zero career starts there. Farmer batted .286/.350/.528 versus lefties the past two seasons, 41 points of OPS better than Garlick. If the Twins think he could add platoon corner outfielder to his infield duties, that new super-utility role would clear a bench spot for someone else.

BB + CC

Correa, Buxton and newly signed catcher Christian Vázquez are the only Twins with guaranteed salaries beyond 2024, and Correa and Buxton are tied together as the Twins’ core for six years apiece. From now through 2028, they’ll combine to make an average of $48 million per season, with $15 million of that going to Buxton as part of a below-market extension signed last December.

Any team would love to build around a pair of in-their-prime, up-the-middle defenders with impact bats. Keeping them on the field together is key, because few duos have as much all-around upside. It also helps that Correa and Buxton formed a quick bond last season and have become good friends. Correa noted Wednesday that he’s talked to Buxton “almost every day” this offseason.

Don’t forget about AK

Scott Boras represents both Correa and Lewis, which made for an interesting dynamic as one client signed up to be the long-term starter at another client’s main position. In true Boras form, he dropped a one-liner when asked about Lewis’ reaction: “He was always excited about playing with Carlos, because Carlos is a water fountain that quenches your thirst for information.”

If nothing else, it would be difficult for Boras to have particularly harsh feelings about the Twins using Lewis at other positions when the agent guaranteed that would be the case by negotiating Correa’s reunion. Alex Kirilloff is yet another Twins player represented by Boras, and it sounds like the 25-year-old’s recovery from a second straight season-ending wrist surgery has gone well thus far.

“He feels really good,” Falvey said. “One of the things he dealt with last year, with some soreness at times, then it leads to hesitation, then it leads to just not really letting it go and trying to guide the wrist through. He’s finally at a point where, when he lets it go, he’s like, OK, this is what it used to feel like. That’s really good news. We’ll continue to progress him thoughtfully, not too quickly.”

Trades coming?

Correa was the last star-level free agent to sign, and even above-average regulars are in extremely short supply on the open market at this stage, which means any further impact moves the Twins make are likely to come via trade. Kepler is the most obvious trade candidate, but his value is too low to bring back any impact players on his own. Expect bigger names to start swirling in rumors.

“We’re focused a little bit more on that (trade) market,” Falvey said. “I’m not convinced anything comes to fruition. We don’t have anything on the doorstep. But that’s probably our focus over the next month, month-plus. … We’re just going to be creative. What other ways can we mix and match to make it work? We’re just going to stay open-minded.”

Locking in Correa for the next six-plus seasons certainly changes the infield dynamic significantly, perhaps making it easier to shop core major leaguers or even top prospects. Overall position player depth, and specifically infield and corner outfield depth, is suddenly a huge organization-wide strength, and it’s always logical to trade from strength to improve weakness. Trades are coming.

The sweet spot

According to FanGraphs’ initial projections, bringing back Correa bumped the Twins from the AL’s ninth-best team to the AL’s seventh-best team. Those two spots are massive because six teams per league now make the postseason, which means the Twins are firmly in the “borderline contender” zone thanks to a weak division and three wild-card spots.

It also means the Twins should be more motivated, not less motivated, to make further moves, since adding even one or two more wins could realistically determine if they’re a playoff team or not. They’re right in the sweet spot of a projected win total in the mid-80s where every extra win makes the maximum possible impact on playoff odds.

Spending another, say, $8 million to acquire a setup-caliber reliever or a quality right-handed-hitting outfielder won’t change much for a 70-win team or a 100-win team, but the Twins should be heavily incentivized to squeeze as many wins as possible out of the rest of this offseason. It would make little sense to shock everyone by snagging Correa and then close the vault. Quality depth is crucial.

“By adding Carlos back into the mix, obviously that’s a significant impact on this year’s roster,” Falvey said. “Now, what are ways we can continue to add to that roster? We’ve made no secret about that being our goal and our mission.”

(Photo of Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa: Brace Hemmelgarn / Minnesota Twins / Getty Images)



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