Whatever path Japan chooses to take as it sets about bolstering its defenses against the emerging threat of hypersonic weapons, it seems that for now at least, potential aggressors with these kinds of weapons already in their arsenal hold an advantage.
While the basic concept of hypersonic weapons is not new, technological advances mean that boost-glide vehicles capable of flying at Mach 5 or more are now real threats, even if their deployment is, so far, fairly limited. Air-breathing hypersonic missiles are potentially even more challenging to defeat, since their initial launch is even harder to detect, with no telltale large ballistic missile launch plume that could potentially be spotted by space-based surveillance assets.
At the same time, Japan is working on its own secretive hypersonic weapons development programs, again with a focus on boost-glide vehicles. With a view toward deterring China, in particular, in the East China Sea, Tokyo has been working on a two-pronged approach to fielding such weapons, with reports in the past that an initial system could be ready for service by 2026.
However, while fielding practical hypersonic weapons for offensive use is clearly feasible, the ability to develop effective counters to them is less certain. Not surprisingly, the sheer speed of these types of weapons has led some analysts to argue that an entirely new command and control architecture is required to defeat them. With that in mind, Japan may well require not only a diverse array of detection systems, and means of defeating the incoming weapons, but also an overarching C2 network in which these assets can be brought together and the entire engagement managed in a rapid, seamless manner.
Ultimately, the cost to Japan of fielding such a comprehensive, multi-layered system to detect and then track hypersonic threats, and then defeat them in some way, is likely to run into tens of billions of dollars. That alone could be a serious hurdle to be overcome, but it seems that Tokyo is at least taking the threat seriously.
Time will tell how successful this effort will be, and to what degree it will involve drones to aid detection.
Contact the author: thomas@thedrive.com