Covid-19 is circulating widely as the BA.5 Omicron subvariant elevates the risk of reinfections and rising case counts, spoiling chances for a summer reprieve from the pandemic across much of the U.S.
Covid-19 levels are high in a fifth of U.S. counties, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s metric based on case and hospital data, a share that has been mostly rising since mid-April. BA.5 is estimated to represent nearly two in three recent U.S. cases that are averaging just more than 100,000 a day, CDC data show. The true number of infections may be roughly six times as high, some virus experts said, in part because so many people are using at-home tests that state health departments largely don’t track.
“We think we’re in a very high level of community transmission, second only to the Omicron peak from the wintertime,” said
Jeffrey Duchin,
health officer for the public-health agency covering Seattle and King County, Wash.
Biden Administration health officials said Tuesday that BA.5 has the potential to push the number of infections higher in the coming weeks. They urged eligible people to get vaccine booster shots to lower the risk of hospitalization and death, and not to wait for potential updated boosters targeting Omicron subvariants.
Getting a booster now “does not preclude your also doing it in the fall,” said
Anthony Fauci,
director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, during a White House briefing. “If the risk is now, address the current risk.”
Nationally, wastewater data tracking the prevalence of the Covid-19 virus through July 6 has recently trended up, according to Biobot Analytics. Such data can provide clues about the pandemic’s trajectory.
Covid-19 hospital admissions are going up in Los Angeles County, and local authorities have said they might impose a mask mandate.
Photo:
caroline brehman/Shutterstock
New York City last week urged people to resume masking in public, indoor settings and around crowds outside. Los Angeles County’s public health department said rising Covid-19 hospital admissions mean that the county also could soon reach high community prevalence and that officials would reinstate a mask mandate if the county stayed at that level for two weeks.
Signs of acute illness remain muted, continuing a hallmark of the spring surge, as treatments plus immunity from vaccines and previous infections reduce risks for many people. But the high prevalence of infection in many areas continues to cause disruptions, including canceled flights and spoiled travel plans, sick children sidelined from camp and child care and hospital employees who can’t report to work.
BA.5’s mutations make it particularly adept at causing repeat infections, even in people who had the version of Omicron that caused the largest recorded spike in cases last winter. There is no evidence to suggest BA.5 causes more severe disease, CDC Director
Rochelle Walensky
said.
Ashish Jha,
the White House’s Covid-19 response coordinator, noted some mixed signals from overseas. Portugal, where vaccine and booster coverage is robust, experienced a sizable wave of serious illness and death after BA.5 hit there recently, Dr. Jha said over the weekend. South Africa, on the other hand, recorded a low rate of deaths after BA.5 surged there this spring, he said.
The BA.5 Omicron subvariant surged in South Africa in the spring, and the death rate was low.
Photo:
Denis Farrell/Associated Press
In addition to vaccines, health officials urged people to use treatment medications such as
Pfizer Inc.’s
Paxlovid. They encouraged people to test before gatherings and use high-quality masks in crowded, indoor spaces.
The pace of hospital admissions for Covid-19-positive patients has recently sped up, federal data indicate. The seven-day moving average for confirmed Covid-19 patients in hospitals has topped 33,000, federal data show, up from a low near 10,000 in April but far below January’s record peak topping 150,000.
Many of the hospitalizations are cases where patients test positive after being admitted for other reasons. Data indicate the portion of Covid-19 patients who need intensive care remains low. Deaths are hovering around 300 to 350 a day, Dr. Jha said Tuesday. This is much closer to historic lows than highs, though he called the current level unacceptable.
Couples whose weddings were cancelled or diminished because of Covid-19 participated in a symbolic ceremony Sunday in New York City, one sign that many people are less shy about crowds at this point in the pandemic.
Photo:
Julia Nikhinson/Associated Press
The reduced threat is one reason a pandemic-fatigued populace is less likely to change behavior when cases are high, said
Robert Wachter,
chairman of the department of medicine at the University of California, San Francisco. Crowds are once again common, from concerts to restaurants to airport terminals. Mask use is scattered, while mandates remain rare.
“Part of what motivated people to be super careful for a long time was the fear that I’m going to die of this thing,” Dr. Wachter said. “I think people have less fear of that, and that’s not inappropriate.”
He and other health experts said they continue to take precautions in their own lives because of the risk of developing long Covid symptoms after an infection. Persistently high levels of infections in communities can also leave elderly people and those with compromised immune systems more exposed, according to epidemiologists. Tamping down on the spread of the virus also gives it less chance to mutate, Dr. Fauci said.
As a surge that started in early spring grinds along through the summer, some health officials are thinking about the fall. U.S. health authorities are planning a fall booster campaign to protect against a potential winter surge, and vaccine makers are racing to update their vaccines to target Omicron subvariants, including BA.5.
Public-health officials and experts hope modified shots will help get some booster-hesitant people off the fence. “With a good public-health campaign behind the rollout of the vaccine, we can shift the scales of that trajectory of people getting both their boosters and vaccinated,” said
Debra Furr-Holden,
dean of New York University School of Global Public Health.
Dr. Duchin, in Seattle, said he hoped communities would head toward the fall at a low level of Covid-19 transmission to ease pressure on health systems. He said he was worried about the consequences if instead Covid-19 is circulating widely at what is traditionally a more intense time for respiratory illnesses generally.
“This virus is relentless in the way it’s challenging us in unexpected ways,” he said.
Write to Jon Kamp at jon.kamp@wsj.com and Jared S. Hopkins at jared.hopkins@wsj.com
Corrections & Amplifications
The BA.5 subvariant is estimated to represent nearly two in three recent U.S. Covid-19 cases. An earlier version of this article misstated the portion as more than one in three cases. (Corrected on July 12)
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