Here are the current U.S. COVID hot spots and how California, Bay Area compare

But the delta coronavirus variant continues to spread, causing concern particularly for the unvaccinated. The highly infectious variant, first identified in India, is surging across the world and leading to new restrictions, and accounts for 25% of new cases in the U.S. In California, it just became the dominant strain, inching past the U.K.-originating alpha variant for the first time in June.

The rise in the delta variant has resulted in COVID-19 hot spots flaring up across the country. We looked at the key coronavirus indicators to see how those states compare to California and the Bay Area through data provided by nonprofit website COVID Act Now, which gathers its figures from a number of sources including the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the New York Times, and official state and county dashboards.

What states are faring the worst?

The COVID Act Now tracker shows 10 states at “high risk” from COVID-19, determined by the rate of daily new cases (seven-day average per 100,000 people), positive test rate and infection rate, which is the estimated number of new people each COVID-positive person will infect.

Arkansas is at the top of the list with 17.1 daily new cases per 100,000, a positive test rate of 7.5%, an infection rate of 1.24, and 42% of the population having received at least one vaccine dose. Experts in Arkansas believe the delta variant could soon become the dominant strain there. Gov. Asa Hutchinson said Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union” that “the solution is the vaccinations,” expressing concern for unvaccinated younger people and those living in rural areas who are more vaccine resistant.

Missouri has the second highest case rate of 15.6, with a positive test rate of 9.2%, an infection rate of 1.1, and 45% of the eligible population vaccinated with at least one dose. Over the weekend, the state requested help from the White House’s new “surge response teams” to help with boosting vaccinations and testing. Cases are surging particularly in the southwest region of the state due to the delta variant, with 4,652 cases reported statewide in the past seven days, according to state data.

Nevada has the third-highest case rate with 14.6 new daily cases per 100,000, the highest positive test rate of any state at 12%, and an infection rate of 1.23. According to the state dashboard, 53.6% of the eligible population has received at least one vaccine dose. Las Vegas fully reopened on June 1 and has seen tourists stream back into casinos, nightclubs and entertainment venues. The state expected tens of thousands of tourists to visit for the holiday, which saw the positive test rate jump 2% over Fourth of July weekend, according to KLAS-TV in Las Vegas. Gov. Steve Sisolak has also reached out for help from the federal surge teams.

What states have the lowest numbers?

Vermont has the lowest case rate at just 0.4 daily new cases per 100,000, a positive test rate of 0.6% and an infection rate of 0.66. Vermont also has the highest rate of vaccinations with 82.4% of the eligible population having received at least one dose, according to state data, prompting state health commissioner Mark Levine to declare Vermont as likely the “safest place in the country.”

Massachusetts has the second-lowest rate at 0.7 daily new cases per 100,000, a positive test rate of 0.5% and an infection rate of 0.79. The state has the country’s second highest vaccination rate, with 71% of the eligible population having received at least one dose. Still, health officials are on alert about the slight uptick in cases, about one-quarter of them tied to the delta variant.

Connecticut has the third-lowest case rate in the U.S. with 0.9 daily new cases per 100,000, a positive test rate of 0.5%, an infection rate of 0.88 and 67% of the eligible population having received at least one vaccine dose.

Where do California and the Bay Area stand?

According to COVID Act Now, California is right in the middle of all the states with 3 daily new cases per population of 100,000, and a positive test rate of 1.4%. The state tracker shows 69% of residents 12 and older have received at least one vaccine dose.

Data collected by The Chronicle shows the state’s 7-day average daily new cases have remained relatively steady since the beginning of June, hovering from 2 to 3 new cases per 100,000. In the past week or so, the daily average has been closer to 3, last reported at 2.6 on July 5.

Last week, amid concerns about the spread of the delta variant in the region, Los Angeles County took the unusual step of strongly recommending that all people continue to wear their masks in public indoor spaces, regardless of vaccination status.

In the Bay Area, Marin County has the lowest case rate and Santa Clara County has the lowest positive test rate. Sonoma County has both the highest case rate and positive test rate of the region’s nine counties.