The overall decline in new coronavirus case numbers in the U.S. over the month of January has brought relief to some health officials. But new data now shows that there may be a new development on the horizon that could thrust the pandemic back into very dire territory. That’s because according to a new study, the highly contagious U.K. COVID strain is spreading across the U.S. at an alarming rate and could drastically alter conditions within the next month. Read on to see why experts are so concerned about the development, and for more on when some officials think we can go somewhat back to normal, check out Dr. Fauci Just Said We’ll Never Be Able to Do This Again.
The first case of the U.K. COVID variant—officially known as B.1.1.7—was only first reported in the U.S. as recently as mid-December. But research released in a preprint on Feb. 7 that has not yet been peer-reviewed has found that the highly contagious strain is doubling every 10 days, confirming fears originally put forth by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that it could become the most common form of the virus within a matter of weeks.
“Nothing in this paper is surprising, but people need to see it,” Kristian Andersen, a co-author of the study and a virologist at the Scripps Research Institute in La Jolla, California told The New York Times. “We should probably prepare for this being the predominant lineage in most places in the United States by March.”
Experts explain that a mutation known officially as N501Y is what has made the U.K. strain so transmissible, changing the exterior shape of the virus and enabling it to more easily infect healthy cells. “It makes it like even stickier Velcro,” Michael Worobey, PhD, a viral evolution researcher at the University of Arizona told CNN.
Now, experts warn that the heavy surges witnessed in other countries such as Portugal, Ireland, and Jordan were likely caused by the variant, and could likely create similar conditions stateside. “There could indeed be a very serious situation developing in a matter of months or weeks,” Nicholas Davies, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine who was not involved in the study told The Times. “These may be early signals warranting urgent investigation by public health authorities.” And for more on what could potentially have a huge effect in the fight against COVID, check out Dr. Fauci Just Said This One Thing Could Turn the Pandemic Around.
Some experts argue that focusing on vaccinating as much of the public as possible—especially those above the age of 65 who are at higher risk of severe COVID—has now taken on new importance. One expert compared the current drop in cases as similar to being lulled into a false sense of security by being in the calm “eye of the hurricane” just before worse conditions resume.
“I’ve been on Zoom calls for the last two weeks about how we’re going to manage this,” Peter Hotez, MD, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine, told CNN during a Feb. 7 interview. “The big wall is about to hit us again and these are the new variants.”
“This could be really, very dire for our country as we head into the spring,” Hotez warned CNN. “Now, we’re in a race. We’re in a race to see how quickly we can vaccinate the American people.”
While variant already has caused concern among health officials in its current state, researchers in Britain have also found samples of B.1.1.7 featuring yet another mutation that can also make current vaccines less effective against it. And while experts question whether or not these mutations will become common, some have pointed out that the development proves the novel coronavirus is a formidable and unpredictable foe that we can anticipate will keep us guessing.
“We should expect them to crop up here,” Andersen told The Times of future threatening mutations. “Whatever was true elsewhere is going to be true here as well, and we need to deal with it.” And for more on how the pandemic is affecting where you live, check out This Is How Bad the COVID Outbreak Is in Your State.