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As the world courts TSMC, Taiwan worries about losing its ‘silicon shield’


Hong Kong
CNN
 — 

Semiconductor giant TSMC was feted this week by US President Joe Biden and Apple CEO Tim Cook during a ceremony to unveil its $40 billion manufacturing site in Arizona — a huge investment designed to help secure America’s supply of the most advanced chips.

But back home in Taiwan, there is deep unease over the growing political and commercial pressure being applied to the world’s most important chipmaker to expand internationally. The company is building a facility in Japan and considering investing in Europe.

“They’re like the Hope Diamond of semiconductors. Everybody wants them,” said G. Dan Hutcheson, vice chair of TechInsights, a research organization specializing in chips. (The Hope Diamond is the world’s largest blue diamond, which now resides at the Smithsonian Institute’s National Museum of Natural History in Washington.)

“Customers in China want them to build there. Customers in the US want them there. And customers in Europe want them there too,” he added.

Apart from the risk that TSMC will take its most advanced technology with it — stripping Taiwan of one of its unique assets and reducing employment opportunities locally — there are fears that a diminished presence for the company could expose Taipei to greater pressure from Beijing, which has vowed to take control of the self-ruled island, by force if necessary.

TSMC is considered a national treasure in Taiwan and supplies tech giants including Apple

(AAPL) and Qualcomm

(QCOM). It mass produces the most advanced semiconductors in the world, components that are vital to the smooth running of everything from smartphones to washing machines.

The company is perceived as being so valuable to the global economy, as well as to China — which claims Taiwan as its own territory despite having never controlled it — that it is sometimes even referred to as forming part of a “silicon shield” against a potential military invasion by Beijing. TSMC’s presence gives a strong incentive to the West to defend Taiwan against any attempt by China to take it by force.

“The idea is that if Taiwan became a powerhouse in semiconductors, then America would have to support and defend it,” said Hutcheson. “The strategy has been super successful.”

A day before Tuesday’s Phoenix ceremony Chiu Chenyuan, a lawmaker with the opposition Taiwan People’s Party, grilled Foreign Minister Joseph Wu about whether there is a “secret deal” with the United States to disadvantage Taiwan’s chip industry.

Chiu claimed that the chip giant was under political pressure to move its operations and its most advanced technology to the US. He cited the transfer of 300 people, including TSMC engineers, to the Arizona plant. In response, Wu said there was no secret deal, nor was there any attempt to diminish the importance of Taiwan to TSMC.

Patrick Chen, the Taipei-based head of research at CL Securities Taiwan, said there was a common concern on the island about TSMC’s growing international importance, the pressure it is facing to expand, and what that means for Taiwan.

“It is similar to what happened in the US in the 70s and 80s when manufacturing jobs were being shifted away from the States into other countries. Many local jobs were lost and cities bankrupted,” he said.

CNN has asked TSMC for comment about its expansion plans.

Its CEO, CC Wei, had previously said: “Every region is important to TSMC,” adding that it would “continue to serve all the customers all over the world.”

Founded in 1987 by Morris Chang, TSMC is not a household name outside Taiwan, even though it produces an estimated 90% of the world’s super-advanced computer chips.

Semiconductors are an indispensable part of just about every electronic device. They are difficult to make because of the high cost of development and the level of knowledge required, meaning much of the production is concentrated among a handful of suppliers.

Concerned about losing access to crucial chips, particularly as tension has escalated between China and the United States, as well as between Beijing and Taipei, governments and major consumer-facing companies like Apple have asked semiconductor companies to localize their operations, according to experts.

“TSMC’s decision to expand its Arizona investment is evidence that politics and geopolitical risks will play a bigger role than previously in supply chain decisions,” said Chris Miller, author of “Chip War: the Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology”.

“It also suggests that TSMC’s customers are asking for more geographic diversification, which is something that wasn’t previously a key concern of major customers.”

On Tuesday, TSMC said it was increasing its investment in the US by building a second semiconductor factory in Arizona and raising its total investment there from $12 billion to $40 billion.

Chang had previously said its plant in Arizona would produce 3-nanometer chips, the company’s most advanced technology, as advances in chip manufacturing require etching ever-smaller transistors onto silicon wafers.

These announcements alarm politicians like Chiu of the Taiwan People’s Party’s. He frets about the island losing out as TSMC is courted globally.

Chen of CL Securities said national security concerns among governments globally are driving TSMC’s expansion. But he believes the company will continue to manufacture its most advanced technology at home.

“This would make economic sense given [the] lower salaries [and] higher quality of Taiwanese engineers,” he said, adding that the company needs the approval of the Taiwan Ministry of Economic Affairs to move its most advanced technologies abroad, which it was unlikely to give.

Many experts believe that by the time 3-nanometer chips are being made in Arizona, TSMC’s Taiwan operations would be producing even smaller, more advanced chips.

Hutcheson also believes TSMC will keep its most cutting-edge development teams in Taiwan.

“Once you have a team of people doing development work, they work very closely together. You don’t want to disrupt that. It’s not an easy thing to do,” he said.

— CNN’s Wayne Chang contributed to this report.

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S&P, Nasdaq extend losing streaks amid rising recession worries

  • Apple down after Morgan Stanley cuts Dec shipment target
  • Tesla falls on production loss worries
  • Carvana records worst-ever daily drop
  • Indexes: Dow flat, S&P down 0.19%, Nasdaq 0.51%

Dec 7 (Reuters) – The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed down on Wednesday after a choppy session on Wall Street, as investors struggled to grasp a clear direction as they weighed how the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy tightening might feed through into corporate America.

For the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX), it was the fifth straight session that it has declined, while the Nasdaq (.IXIC) finished down for the fourth time in a row. The Dow snapped a two-session losing streak, as it ended unchanged from the previous day.

The Nasdaq was dragged down by a 1.4% drop in Apple Inc (AAPL.O) on Morgan Stanley’s iPhone shipment target cut and a 3.2% fall in Tesla Inc (.IXIC) over production loss worries.

Markets have also been rattled by downbeat comments from top executives at Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N), JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) and Bank of America Corp (BAC.N) on Tuesday that a mild to more pronounced recession was likely ahead.

Fears that the U.S. central bank might stick to a longer rate-hike cycle have intensified recently in the wake of strong jobs and service-sector reports.

More economic data, including weekly jobless claims, producer price index and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey this week, will be on the watch list for clues on what to expect from the Fed on Dec. 14.

“It feels like we’re in this very uncertain period where investors are trying to ascertain what’s more important, as policymakers are slowing down on rates but the data is not playing ball,” said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA.

“The market is trying to balance the headwinds and the tailwinds and this is causing some confusion.”

The CBOE volatility index (.VIX), also known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, closed at 22.68, its highest finish since Nov. 18.

Money market participants see a 91% chance that the Fed will increase its key benchmark rate by 50 basis points in December to 4.25%-4.50%, with rates peaking in May 2023 at 4.93%.

The S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 7.34 points, or 0.19%, to close at 3,933.92 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 56.34 points, or 0.51%, to finish at 10,958.55. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) was flat, ending on 33,597.92.

Concerns about a steep rise in borrowing costs have boosted the dollar, but dented demand for risk assets such as equities this year. The S&P 500 is on track to snap a three-year winning streak.

Three of the 11 major S&P sector indexes were higher, with healthcare (.SPXHC) one of them. Technology (.SPLRCT) and communication services (.SPLRCL), down 0.5 and 0.9% respectively, were the worst performers.

Energy (.SPNY) fell for its fifth straight session. The sector’s performance was weighed by U.S. crude prices falling again, settling at the lowest level in 2022, as concerns over the outlook for global growth wiped out all of the gains since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine exacerbated the worst global energy supply crisis in decades.

Carvana Co (CVNA.N) had its worst day as a public company, losing nearly half its stock value, after Wedbush downgraded the used-car retailer’s stock to “underperform” from “neutral” and slashed its price target to $1.

Meanwhile, United Airlines (UAL.O) traded 4.1% lower. Unions representing various workers at the airline said they would join forces on contract negotiations.

Travel-related stocks were generally down. Delta Air Lines (DAL.N) and American Airlines Group (AAL.O) were 4.4% and 5.4% lower respectively, with cruise line operators Carnival Corp (CCL.N) and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH.N) and accommodation-linked Airbnb Inc (ABNB.O) and Booking Holdings (BKNG.O) all falling between 1.7% and 4.4%.

Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.29 billion shares, compared with the 10.98 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

The S&P 500 posted seven new 52-week highs and seven new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 61 new highs and 307 new lows.

Reporting by Shubham Batra, Ankika Biswas, Johann M Cherian and Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru and David French in New York; Editing by Vinay Dwivedi, Shounak Dasgupta and Lisa Shumaker

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Oil prices erase 2022 gains as China’s protests spark demand worries

  • WTI hits lowest since Dec 2021, Brent at lowest since Jan 2022
  • Clashes in Shanghai as COVID protests flare across China
  • Investors focus on next OPEC+ meeting on Dec 4

Nov 28 (Reuters) – Oil prices fell close to their lowest this year on Monday as street protests against strict COVID-19 curbs in China, the world’s biggest crude importer, stoked concern over the outlook for fuel demand.

Brent crude dropped by $2.67, or 3.1%, to trade at $80.96 a barrel at 1330 GMT, having dived more than 3% to $80.61 earlier in the session for its lowest since Jan. 4.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slid $2.09, or 2.7%, to $74.19 after touching its lowest since Dec. 22 last year at $73.60.

Both benchmarks, which hit 10-month lows last week, have posted three consecutive weekly declines.

Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics

“On top of growing concerns about weaker fuel demand in China due to a surge in COVID-19 cases, political uncertainty caused by rare protests over the government’s stringent COVID restrictions in Shanghai prompted selling,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, general manager of research at Nissan Securities.

Markets appeared volatile ahead of an OPEC+ meeting this weekend and a looming G7 price cap on Russian oil.

China has stuck with President Xi Jinping’s zero-COVID policy even as much of the world has lifted most restrictions.

Hundreds of demonstrators and police clashed in Shanghai on Sunday night as protests over the restrictions flared for a third day and spread to several cities.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, will meet on Dec. 4. In October OPEC+ agreed to reduce its output target by 2 million barrels per day through 2023.

Meanwhile, Group of Seven (G7) and European Union diplomats have been discussing a price cap on Russian oil of between $65 and $70 a barrel, with the aim of limiting revenue to fund Moscow’s military offensive in Ukraine without disrupting global oil markets.

However, EU governments were split on the level at which to cap Russian oil prices, with the impact being potentially muted.

“Talks will continue on a price cap but it seems it won’t be as strict as first thought, to the point that it may be borderline pointless,” said Craig Erlam, senior markets analyst at OANDA

“The threat to Russian output from a $70 cap, for example, is minimal given it’s selling around those levels already.”

The price cap is due to come into effect on Dec. 5 when an EU ban on Russian crude also takes effect.

Reporting by Noah Browning
Additional reporting by Yuka Obayashi in Tokyo and Mohi Narayan in New Delhi
Editing by Kirsten Donovan and David Goodman

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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China widens COVID curbs, iPhone factory unrest adds to economy worries

  • COVID restrictions ramped up as cases rise
  • iPhone factory unrest underscores industrial, social risks
  • Analysts warn of potential for wider lockdowns
  • Resort city Sanya imposes movement curbs on new arrivals

BEIJING, Nov 23 (Reuters) – Chinese cities imposed more curbs on Wednesday to rein in rising coronavirus cases, adding to investor worries about the economy, as fresh unrest at the world’s largest iPhone plant highlighted the social and industrial toll of China’s strict COVID-19 measures.

In Beijing, malls and parks were shut and once-bustling areas of the capital resembled ghost towns as authorities urged people to stay home.

The Hainan island resort city of Sanya barred people from going to restaurants and malls within three days of arrival, and numerous cities across China have imposed localised lockdowns as infections neared highs seen in April.

The measures are darkening the outlook for the world’s second-largest economy and dampening hopes that China would significantly ease its outlier COVID stance any time soon, as China faces its first winter battling the highly contagious Omicron variant.

“While there is little prospect of the authorities opting to step back from the zero-COVID policy during the winter, there is a significant risk that containment efforts fail,” analysts at Capital Economics wrote.

Such a failure could result in more lockdowns which would cause unprecedented damage to the economy, they said.

China’s COVID curbs, the tightest in the world, have fuelled widespread discontent and disrupted production at manufacturers including Taiwan’s Foxconn (2317.TW), Apple Inc’s biggest iPhone supplier.

On Wednesday, footage uploaded on social media showed Foxconn workers pulling down barriers and fighting with authorities in hazmat suits, chanting “give us our pay”. The unrest follows weeks of turmoil which has seen scores of employees leave the factory over COVID controls. The videos could not be immediately verified by Reuters.

Localities accounting for nearly one-fifth of China’s total GDP are under some form of lockdown or curbs, brokerage Nomura estimated earlier this week, a figure that would exceed the GDP of Britain.

TESTING RESOLVE

Even though infection numbers are low by global standards, China has stuck with its zero-COVID approach, a signature policy of President Xi Jinping that officials argue saves lives and prevents the medical system from being overwhelmed.

China reported 28,883 new domestically transmitted cases for Tuesday.

The International Monetary Fund urged China to further recalibrate its COVID-19 strategy and boost vaccination rates.

“Although the zero-COVID strategy has become nimbler over time, the combination of more contagious COVID variants and persistent gaps in vaccinations have led to the need for more frequent lockdowns, weighing on consumption and private investment,” IMF official Gita Gopinath said.

Residents are increasingly fed up with nearly three years of restrictions, and Wednesday’s protest at the Foxconn factory in Zhengzhou comes after crowds recently crashed through barriers and clashed with hazmat-suit-clad workers in the southern city of Guangzhou.

The rising case numbers are also testing China’s resolve to avoid one-size-fits-all measures such as mass lockdowns to curb outbreaks, and rely on recently tweaked COVID rules instead.

However, unofficial lockdowns have increased, including in residential buildings and compounds in Beijing, where case numbers hit a new high on Tuesday.

In Shanghai, a city of 25 million that was locked down for two months earlier this year, China’s top auto association said on Wednesday it would cancel the second day of the China Automotive Overseas Development Summit being held there over COVID concerns.

Chengdu, with 428 cases on Tuesday, became the latest city to announce mass testing.

Major manufacturing hubs Chongqing and Guangzhou have seen persistently high infection numbers, accounting for most of China’s caseload. Cases in Guangzhou fell slightly on Tuesday to 7,970 and authorities have said infections continue to be concentrated in key areas of Haizhu district.

Investors who last week were hopeful that China would ease restrictions have grown worried that the infection wave could slow economic reopening. read more Many analysts say a significant easing of COVID curbs is unlikely before March or April.

A sharper than expected slowdown in China, which is hurting domestic demand in particular, would reverberate across countries including Japan, South Korea and Australia, which export hundreds of billions of dollars worth of products and commodities to the world’s second largest economy.

Analysts are also cutting forecasts for oil demand from the world’s top crude importer, with recent COVID curbs already driving global oil futures lower.

“The next few weeks could be the worst in China since the early weeks of the pandemic both for the economy and the healthcare system,” said analysts at Capital Economics.

Reporting by Beijing and Shanghai newsrooms; Writing by Bernard Orr; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman, Miral Fahmy, Tony Munroe and Bernadette Baum

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Stocks Drop on China Covid Worries; Dollar Rises: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) — Stocks fell amid concern that China may tighten Covid curbs after a string of reported deaths, with investors seeking shelter in the dollar.

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S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 contracts both dropped by at least 0.5%. Walt Disney Co. defied the gloom, rallying in New York premarket trading after the company brought back former leader Bob Iger as chief executive officer in a surprise move. European equities edged lower.

The dollar climbed against its Group-of-10 counterparts and emerging-market currencies. Treasuries were steady after giving back earlier gains. Oil sank on concern of a weakening demand outlook from China.

China saw its first Covid-related death in almost six months on Saturday and another two were reported on Sunday. Worsening outbreaks across the nation are stoking concerns that authorities may again resort to harsh restrictions. A city near Beijing that was rumored to be a test case for the ending of virus restrictions has suspended schools, locked down universities and asked residents to stay at home for five days.

“Financial markets have caught a cold amid worries that mounting Covid cases in China and a fresh tightening of restrictions will send a fresh shiver through manufacturing output and push down demand for raw materials,” said Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

On the outlook for stocks, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists said that investors hoping for a better year in 2023 would be disappointed, with the bear market phase not yet over.

“The conditions that are typically consistent with an equity trough have not yet been reached,” strategists including Peter Oppenheimer and Sharon Bell wrote in a note on Monday. They said that a peak in interest rates and lower valuations reflecting recession are necessary before any sustained stock-market recovery can happen.

Traders this week will also be looking to minutes of the most recent Federal Reserve policy meeting for more clues on the course of rate hikes.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he favors slowing the pace of interest rate increases, with no more than 1 percentage point more of hikes, to try to ensure the economy has a soft landing. Boston Fed President Susan Collins reiterated her view that options are open for the size of the December interest-rate increase, including the possibility of a 75 basis-point move.

Elsewhere, Hong Kong stocks led declines in Asia as investors weighed whether the recent rally on a China reopening was overdone. Cryptocurrency prices struggled in the ongoing crisis sparked by the downfall of Sam Bankman-Fried’s once powerful FTX empire. Crypto-exposed stocks fell.

Key events this week:

  • US Chicago Fed national activity index, Monday

  • US Richmond Fed manufacturing index, Tuesday

  • OECD releases Economic Outlook, Tuesday

  • Fed’s Loretta Mester and James Bullard speak, Tuesday

  • S&P Global PMIs: US, Euro area, UK, Wednesday

  • US MBA mortgage applications, durable goods, initial jobless claims, University of Michigan sentiment, new home sales, Wednesday

  • Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s Nov. 1-2 meeting, Wednesday

  • ECB publishes account of its October policy meeting, Thursday

  • US stock and bond markets are closed for the Thanksgiving holiday, Thursday

  • US stock and bond markets close early, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets :

Stocks

  • Futures on the S&P 500 fell 0.5% as of 6:02 a.m. New York time

  • Futures on the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.7%

  • Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%

  • The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.1%

  • The MSCI World index fell 0.5%

Currencies

  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.7%

  • The euro fell 0.8% to $1.0239

  • The British pound fell 0.6% to $1.1821

  • The Japanese yen fell 0.9% to 141.70 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies

  • Bitcoin fell 0.9% to $16,110.71

  • Ether fell 1.1% to $1,128.49

Bonds

  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 3.83%

  • Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.02%

  • Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 3.24%

Commodities

  • West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.5% to $79.70 a barrel

  • Gold futures fell 0.6% to $1,757.70 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Sagarika Jaisinghani and Tassia Sipahutar.

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©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

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Georgia runoff election highlights GOP worries about Trump — and excitement surrounding DeSantis



CNN
 — 

Herschel Walker’s success in his upcoming runoff against incumbent Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock could depend on GOP luminaries flocking to Georgia between now and December 6, several Republicans say.

Many are torn over whether that should include former President Donald Trump, whose status as the anchor of the party is under renewed scrutiny amid an underwhelming midterm outcome for Republicans.

“Since Tuesday night, the No. 1 question I’ve been getting is, ‘Is Trump going to screw this up?’” said Erick Erickson, a prominent Georgia-based conservative radio host who backed Trump’s 2020 reelection bid.

Though the former president helped recruit Walker, a Georgia football legend and longtime Trump family friend, into the Senate contest last year, he was ultimately advised to campaign elsewhere during the general election, two people familiar with the matter told CNN. Some Republicans are still haunted by Trump’s appearances in Georgia leading up to a pair of 2021 runoffs that ended with Democrats winning both seats and gaining control of the Senate. At the time, then-President Trump littered his campaign speeches with false claims that voter fraud was rampant in Georgia and that Republican officials had worked against him.

Walker allies feared that a Trump appearance ahead of the midterms would turn off independents and suburban women, critical voting blocs in the battleground state. Those concerns remain as Walker now enters the runoff period after neither he nor Warnock took more than 50% of the vote on Tuesday.

Some Georgia Republicans said Trump’s decision to proceed with an anticipated 2024 campaign launch next week will distract from what should be paramount for every Republican at the moment – helping the party secure a Senate majority. Trump aides sent out invitations late Thursday for a November 15 event at Mar-a-Lago, which the former president hopes will blunt the momentum behind Ron DeSantis, the popular Florida governor and potential presidential primary rival who glided to reelection this week.

In fact, while a debate unfolds over whether Trump should campaign for Walker in the coming days, several Republicans said they would eagerly welcome an appearance by DeSantis.

“We need every Republican surrogate we can get into the state to put their arm around Herschel. I think that [Virginia Gov. Glenn] Youngkin or DeSantis is a better fit for soft Republicans or independents in the suburbs that we need to turn out,” said Ralph Reed, president of the Faith & Freedom Coalition.

Reed later noted that he believes Trump could also be helpful in driving turnout among rural Georgia voters, though he cautioned that he was “not speaking for the [Walker] campaign.”

“I’ll let them work that out,” he said.

Walker campaign manager Scott Paradise did not return a request for comment.

A person close to the Walker campaign said DeSantis would be “a huge draw if we could get him,” noting that the Florida governor did not campaign for Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp despite being just over the border and recently stumping for candidates in New York, Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Kemp won his own reelection bid on Tuesday, defeating Democrat Stacey Abrams for the second time. And the Georgia governor has told allies he wants to help Walker any way he can, including by hitting the campaign trail for him, according to a person briefed on those conversations.

“DeSantis would be helpful. Youngkin would be helpful. Kemp will be helpful. I think those are the biggest draws in Georgia,” said Erickson.

A Republican with knowledge of DeSantis’ political operation said DeSantis’ interest in campaigning for Walker “depends on what happens with the remaining two races” for Senate in Arizona and Nevada. Both contests remain too close to call but if Republicans win one of the races, control of the upper chamber will come down to Georgia.

“It becomes the center of the political universe at that point,” this person said.

A spokesman for DeSantis did not respond to a request for comment about his future travel plans. Though DeSantis endorsed Republicans in tough battlegrounds and campaigned for controversial candidates like Arizona’s Kari Lake and Pennsylvania’s Doug Mastriano, he made no such effort during the midterms to aid Walker amid a flurry of headlines about the former Heisman Trophy winner’s tumultuous past and personal troubles.

DeSantis – whose Tallahassee executive residence is 20 miles from the Florida-Georgia border – also did not join the GOP fight in the Peach State two years ago for a pair of Senate runoffs Republicans ultimately lost.

But a Republican fundraiser close to DeSantis said the Florida governor would likely make the trip across the border if he believes he can help Walker. “He’s a Republican leader and wants Republicans to take the Senate,” the fundraiser said.

But if DeSantis shows up in Georgia, Trump allies said it would be exponentially harder to convince the former president to stay out of the state himself. Much to the frustration of those who want a distraction-free environment for Walker, Trump has continued to hurl insults at DeSantis in recent days, snapping at the Florida governor in a statement Thursday that referred to him as “an average Republican governor” who lacked “loyalty and class” for refusing to rule out a White House bid of his own.

If the Florida Republican goes to campaign for Walker, those attacks would likely intensify, said a person close to Trump.

“Imagine [Trump] seeing Ron campaign for Herschel while he is being told, ‘Please stay away.’ He would go ballistic,” this person said.

One Trump aide, who requested anonymity to discuss internal deliberations, said one idea being floated is to have the former president help Walker financially with a generous check. Trump’s MAGA Inc. super PAC gave $16.4 million to candidates in the closing weeks of the 2022 cycle and he was sitting on more than $100 million across his fundraising committees at the end of September, according to federal election data.

“He is looking at how he can salvage this moment and one of the ways for him to do that is to help Walker win,” said a Trump adviser, referring to Tuesday’s underwhelming outcome for Republicans and the stinging defeat of Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, whom Trump had endorsed in the Republican Senate primary.

“But I think there’s no way he can announce a campaign for president and not go campaign for Walker,” the person added, claiming that Trump’s absence from Georgia as the presumptive frontrunner for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination would suggest he is a liability for vulnerable Republicans – a toxic message to be sending at the outset of a presidential campaign.

Michael Caputo, a 2016 Trump campaign aide who remains close to the former president, said Trump should do as much as possible to raise money for Walker because a presidential announcement will likely cause a surge in Democratic contributions to Warnock.

“You have to offset that on the Walker side. From my perspective, the best thing Trump can do is donate and raise a ton of money for Herschel because he can,” Caputo said.

Trump’s political team has held discussions about how he can best help Walker since it became clear the Georgia Senate race would advance to a runoff, according to two sources familiar, both of whom said nothing has been firmly decided.

“President Trump is 220-16 in races that have been called, and with the support of President Trump, Herschel Walker, after forcing a run-off, is well-positioned to win,” Trump spokesman Taylor Budowich said in a statement to CNN.

Much of the sensitivity around a Trump visit to Georgia stems from his campaign appearances for former GOP Sens. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler two years ago, when both Republicans were fighting for survival in their own runoff contests.

On the eve of those runoffs in 2021, Trump tore into statewide Republican officials for refusing to challenge the 2020 election results in Georgia, falsely claiming that he had won the state and promising to return when Kemp was up for reelection to campaign against the GOP incumbent, which Trump later fulfilled by recruiting Perdue to challenge Kemp in a primary.

Republicans back in Washington watched the rally in horror at the time, deeply concerned that Trump’s intense focus on election fraud and various attacks on statewide Republican officials would depress voter turnout among his core supporters the following day. In the end, both Loeffler and Perdue lost their runoffs, catapulting Warnock and Jon Ossof into the Senate and handing Democrats a narrow majority.

The episode has come back to haunt Trump as Republicans face a potentially identical scenario to 2021, with control of the Senate riding on Georgia if Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly wins reelection in Arizona and Republican Adam Laxalt unseats incumbent Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada. Laxalt currently has a razor-thin lead while Kelly is more than 100,000 votes ahead of his Republican challenger, according to the vote counts as of Friday morning. Less concerned that he would deliver a message that depresses turnout, Republicans are primarily worried this time around that Trump would ultimately be a drag on Walker in a once deep-red state that is now trending purple and where the polarizing former president might alienate the exact voters Walker needs to prevail.

“Herschel needs to do better among Kemp voters and independents in the suburbs,” said Reed. “About 5% of the voters that went to Kemp didn’t go to Herschel and he needs to get a minimum of 1 out of every 4 of them.”

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Asian shares fall ahead of U.S. CPI, crypto worries mount

  • https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4
  • Dollar stays firm, crypto stokes spillover fears
  • European markets set to open lower
  • China mainland, Hong Kong shares battered by COVID case surge
  • Focus on U.S. inflation for signs of slowdown in Fed rate hike

SYDNEY, Nov 10 (Reuters) – Asian share markets pulled back on Thursday and the dollar held its overnight gains before the big test of a U.S. consumer inflation report, while market sentiment took a dive as the likely collapse of a major crypto exchange spooked investors.

With no final results available from the U.S. mid-term elections, investors were turning to upcoming inflation data later in the day, which is likely to show a slowing in both the monthly and yearly core numbers for October to 0.5% and 6.5%, respectively, according to a Reuters poll.

European markets are set to extend the cautious mood, with the pan-region Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.7%. However, U.S. S&P 500 futures edged up 0.2% while the Nasdaq futures rose 0.3%.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) fell 1.2%, dragged lower by a 1.0% drop in China’s bluechips (.CSI300) and a 1.8% retreat in Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index (.HSI).

Japan’s Nikkei (.N225) lost 1.0%.

China is again grappling with a COVID surge, with the southern metropolis of Guangzhou reporting thousands of cases. Apple Inc (AAPL.O) supplier Foxconn (2317.TW) plans to update its fourth-quarter outlook on Thursday, after strict COVID curbs remained in place at its major plant in China despite the lifting of a lockdown.

Elsewhere, focus remained squarely on inflation.

“The high probability is we see a number that is fairly in line with expectations – that is obviously harder to call, and we may need to wait for the guidance from Fed speakers in the session ahead to see how they interpret it,” said Chris Weston, head of research at brokerage Pepperstone.

Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari on Wednesday said it’s “entirely premature” to discuss any pivot away from the Fed’s current policy tightening.

A slew of Fed officials including Board Governor Christopher Waller, Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker, Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan will be speaking tonight.

The futures market currently showed investors believe the Fed could step down to a 50 basis point hike next month, while the target U.S. federal funds rate could peak around 5.1% by next June.

Overnight on Wall Street, shares ended lower as Republican gains in midterm elections appeared more modest than some had expected. Republicans were still favoured to win control of the House of Representatives but key races were too close to call.

In the crypto world, bitcoin rose 3.6% to $16,443 on Thursday, after tumbling for two straight sessions to its lowest level since late 2020.

Binance, the world’s biggest crypto exchange, said late on Wednesday that it had decided not to acquire smaller rival FTX, which has grappled with a severe liquidity crunch and faced bankruptcy without more capital.

“You can’t deny the growing correlation between bitcoin and risk assets. The FTX news is having an outsized effect on asset prices,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management.

“Bitcoin spillovers are not negligible, and given how widely crypto coins are held, it could mean more forced liquidation of other assets to cover margin calls as long position investors were massively wrong-footed.”

The U.S. dollar on Thursday held onto most of its overnight gains against a basket of currencies.

The sterling gained 0.4% against the greenback to $1.1409, after tumbling 1.6% in the previous session.

U.S. Treasury yields were lower on Thursday.

The yield on benchmark 10-year notes eased 8 basis points to 4.0751% while the yield on two-year notes edged 3 basis points lower to 4.5963%.

In commodities, oil prices trimmed earlier losses on Thursday, after tumbling around 3% in the previous session on fears of demand from China and rising U.S. crude stocks.

U.S. crude oil futures was flat at 0.3% to $85.83 per barrel, while Brent crude futures stabilised at $92.71.

Gold was higher, with the spot price at $1,709.08 per ounce.

Reporting by Stella Qiu; Editing by Bradley Perrett and Sam Holmes

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Worries over Germany’s China dependency overshadow Scholz trip

  • Scholz is first G7 leader to visit China since start of pandemic
  • Germany is drafting new, tougher China strategy
  • Hawks fear Scholz to keep prioritizing economic ties
  • Business delegation to accompany chancellor to Beijing on Nov. 4

BERLIN, Nov 2 (Reuters) – Chancellor Olaf Scholz makes an inaugural visit to China on Friday that will be closely watched for clues on how serious Germany is about reducing its economic reliance on Asia’s rising superpower and confronting its Communist leadership.

His one-day visit on Nov. 4, will make Scholz the first G7 leader to visit China since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and the first to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping since he consolidated his grip on power at a Communist Party Congress.

Deep trade ties bind Asia and Europe’s biggest economies, with rapid Chinese expansion and demand for Germany’s cars and machinery fueling its own growth over the past two decades. China became Germany’s single biggest trade partner in 2016.

A recent survey by the Ifo think-tank found that nearly half of German industrial firms now rely on significant inputs from China.

But Scholz’s trip comes at a time of growing concern in the West – particularly in Germany’s top security ally, the United States – about China’s trade practices, human rights record and territorial ambitions.

It also comes amid worry at home about Germany’s dependence on another increasingly assertive, authoritarian state given the ongoing fallout of its over-reliance on Russian energy.

“It is extremely important that we never again make ourselves so dependent on a country that does not share our values,” Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock told broadcaster ARD when asked about China.

Scholz, who will meet with both Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and Xi, will press China to open up its markets, raise human rights concerns and discuss “autocratic” tendencies, a German government spokesperson said last week.

He also hopes China can help persuade Russia to end the war in Ukraine, a government official said on Wednesday.

“This trip is an exploratory trip to find out in personal exchange where China stands, where China is going and what forms of cooperation are possible,” the official said.

Germany had already started to take a slightly more hawkish stance on China under former Chancellor Angela Merkel, for example by sending a warship to the disputed South China Sea for the first time in two decades last year.

Now Scholz’s government is drafting its first ever China strategy, on the basis of a coalition deal that struck a tougher stance on Beijing, mentioning sensitive issues such as Taiwan and Hong Kong and human rights violations in Xianjiang.

The chancellor made his inaugural Asia visit to Japan, not China, unlike his predecessor in a sign of the changing times.

MERCANTILE APPROACH?

Yet some coalition members, European officials and rights activists worry there are early signs Scholz, who has warned against decoupling, will not mark a decisive break with what they view as Merkel’s mercantilist approach towards China.

Reuters Graphics

Scholz will be accompanied by a delegation of business leaders including the chief executives of Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE) , BASF (BASFn.DE), Siemens (SIEGn.DE), Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE), BMW (BMWG.DE), Merck (MRCG.DE) and BioNTech , according to sources familiar with the matter.

No company deals were planned, a German government official said.

However, “his decision to bring a business delegation shows that, for Germany, profit continues to trump human rights,” Dolkun Isa, president of the Munich-based group the World Uyghhur Congress, said on Wednesday, arguing that Scholz was overlooking a genocide taking place in the Xinjiang region.

Beijing denies any abuses there.

Last week the German chancellor also pushed through a cabinet decision to allow China’s Cosco to invest in a terminal at Hamburg port despite pushback from his coalition partners.

Reuters Graphics

Scholz’s junior coalition partners, the Greens and (FDP) Free Democrats, have long been more hawkish on China than his Social Democrats (SPD) and the Cosco decision prompted outcry.

FDP General Secretary Bijan Djir-Sarai called the decision “naive” and criticized the timing of Scholz’s trip to China as “deeply unfortunate”.

Moreover French and German government sources told Reuters French President Emmanuel Macron had suggested to Scholz they go together to Beijing to send a signal of EU unity to Beijing and counter what they see as Chinese attempts to play one country over another.

But the German chancellor declined Macron’s offer, the sources said.

EU countries should adopt a more united approach, the European Union’s industry chief told Reuters on Monday.

Reporting by Sarah Marsh and Andreas Rinke; Additional Reporting by Paul Carrel; Editing by Alexandra Hudson

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Inflation worries hurt U.S. consumer confidence; house prices decelerating

  • Consumer confidence index falls 5.3 points to 102.5
  • Labor market differential drops to 32.5 from 38.1
  • House price gains slow further in August

WASHINGTON, Oct 25 (Reuters) – U.S. consumer confidence ebbed in October after two straight monthly increases amid rising concerns about inflation and a possible recession next year, but households remained keen to purchase big-ticket items like motor vehicles and appliances.

The Conference Board survey on Tuesday also showed more consumers planned to buy a home over the next six months, despite soaring borrowing costs. The steady rise in consumers’ buying intentions could provide some stability for the economy in the near-term.

But there are signs that the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes are starting to cool the labor market, with a decline in the share of consumers viewing jobs as “plentiful” and a rise in those saying employment was “hard to get.”

“The biggest risk is the unknown lagged effects from the Fed’s cumulative tightening and the economy may not feel the full effects until next year when recession risks are high,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina.

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 102.5 this month from 107.8 in September. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index at 106.5. The decline in confidence was across all age groups, but more pronounced in the 35-54 and well as the 55 and over cohorts.

Regionally, there were marked decreases in Florida, probably because of Hurricane Ian, and Ohio. Consumers’ 12-month inflation expectations rose to 7.0%, likely reflecting a recent reversal in gasoline prices after falling over the summer, from 6.8% last month. Food also remains very expensive.

Stubbornly high inflation and fading confidence are a blow to President Joe Biden and Democrats’ hopes of retaining control of Congress in Nov. 8 mid-term elections.

The Fed, fighting the fastest-rising inflation in 40 years, has raised its benchmark overnight interest rate from near zero in March to the current range of 3.00% to 3.25%, the swiftest pace of policy tightening in a generation or more. That rate is likely to end the year in the mid-4% range, based on the U.S. central bank officials’ own projections and recent comments.

The survey’s present situation index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, tumbled to 138.9, the lowest level since April 2021, from 150.2 in September.

Its expectations index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, fell to 78.1 from 79.5 last month. The expectations index remains below a reading of 80, a level associated with a recession and suggests that the risks of a downturn could be rising.

The survey’s so-called labor market differential, derived from data on respondents’ views on whether jobs are plentiful or hard to get, dropped to 32.5, the lowest reading since April 2021, from 38.1 in September.

This measure correlates to the unemployment rate from the Labor Department and is still high by historical standards. Unemployment benefits data show the labor market remains tight.

Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher. The dollar fell against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices rose.

SPENDING PLANS RISE

Even as consumers worried about the economy’s outlook, they remained interested in buying big-ticket items over the next six months, though they pulled back on travel plans, suggesting many Americans intended to stay home over the holiday season.

The share of consumers planning to buy motor vehicles increased to the highest level since July 2020. More consumers planned to buy appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines and vacuum cleaners.

“Consumers have abundant excess saving and they are willing to dig into this pile of cash to keep their real spending at least stable, even as inflation eats into their real incomes,” said Scott Hoyt, senior economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania.

Consumers were also more inclined to buy a house, probably encouraged by a sharp slowdown in house price inflation.

But surging mortgage rates remain an obstacle. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.94% last week, the highest in 20 years, up from 6.92% in the prior week, according to data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac.

A separate report on Tuesday showed the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index increased 13.0% year-on-year in August after advancing 15.6% in July. On a monthly basis, prices fell 0.9% in August, the second straight monthly drop.

A third report from the Federal Housing Finance Agency showed home prices increased 11.9% in the 12 months through August after rising 13.9% in July. Prices fell 0.7% on a monthly basis after decreasing 0.6% in July. It was the first time since March 2011 that monthly prices posted back-to-back declines.

“We expect home price inflation to slow in the remainder of 2022, falling to single digits by year-end and to zero by the second quarter of 2023,” said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics in New York. “With home sales falling as deteriorating affordability sidelines many buyers, prices will have to adjust. However, inventory remains low, and we think that will keep a floor under home prices.”

Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Andrea Ricci

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Wall Street ends lower as Fed worries outweigh earnings

  • IBM up as it sees higher full-year sales
  • Tesla expects to miss vehicle delivery target this year
  • AT&T raises annual profit forecast
  • Dow down 0.3%, S&P 500 down 0.80%, Nasdaq down 0.61%

NEW YORK, Oct 20 (Reuters) – U.S. stocks closed lower on Thursday as data on the labor market and comments from a U.S. Federal Reserve official reinforced expectations the central bank will be aggressive in hiking interest rates outweighed a flurry of solid corporate earnings.

Stocks initially rose early in the session, boosted by gains in names such as IBM (IBM.N), up 4.73% after the IT services company beat quarterly earnings estimates on Wednesday and said it expects to exceed full-year revenue growth targets. AT&T Inc (T.N) surged 7.72% upon raising its annual profit forecast.

But stocks were unable to hold their gains as strong weekly jobless claims and comments from Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker bolstered concerns about the Fed hiking rates and potentially tilting the economy into a recession.

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Harker said the Fed is not done raising its short-term rate target as high inflation persists, helping to push the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note to its highest level since June 2008 at 4.239%.

“It’s interest rates that are driving equity volatility, that is the way we have been looking at things all year, that is kind of the precursor of seeing things calm down in the equity space and feeling better about adding risk there is seeing volatility decline in interest rates,” said Zachary Hill, head of portfolio management at Horizon Investments in Charlotte, North Carolina.

“I’m not sure we are going to be able to see that pause that a few Fed members have been pointing to and certainly a few market participants have been kind of latching on to.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 90.22 points, or 0.3%, to 30,333.59, the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 29.38 points, or 0.80%, to 3,665.78 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 65.66 points, or 0.61%, to 10,614.84.

Better-than-expected results thus far has pushed earnings growth expectations for third-quarter for S&P 500 companies to 3.1% from a 2.8% increase earlier in the week, but still well below the 11.1% increase that was forecast at the start of July.

Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) slumped 6.65% as the electric-vehicle maker flagged persistent logistics challenges, with fourth-quarter deliveries growing by less than the aimed 50%.

Stocks have been under pressure this year as concerns about the impact of the Fed’s aggressive path of interest rate hikes on corporate earnings and the overall economy have mounted as the central bank tries to quell stubbornly high inflation.

Other data showed sales of existing homes fell for an eight straight month, while another reading showed factory activity in the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s district contracted again in October.

The U.S. central bank is widely expected to announce a fourth straight 75 basis-point hike at its November meeting, with an outside chance of a full percentage point increase.

Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.37 billion shares, compared with the 11.62 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.12-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.34-to-1 ratio favored decliners.

The S&P 500 posted 3 new 52-week highs and 28 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 53 new highs and 239 new lows.

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Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Aurora Ellis

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