Tag Archives: World economy

IMF hikes global growth forecast as inflation cools

The IMF has revised its global economic outlook upwards.

Norberto Duarte | Afp | Getty Images

The International Monetary Fund on Monday revised upward its global growth projections for the year, but warned that higher interest rates and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine would likely still weigh on activity.

In its latest economic update, the IMF said the global economy will grow 2.9% this year — which represents a 0.2 percentage point improvement from its previous forecast in October. However, that number would still mean a fall from an expansion of 3.4% in 2022.

It also revised its projection for 2024 down to 3.1%.

“Growth will remain weak by historical standards, as the fight against inflation and Russia’s war in Ukraine weigh on activity,” Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, director of the research department at the IMF, said in a blog post.

The outlook turned more positive on the global economy due to better-than-expected domestic factors in several countries, such as the United States.

“Economic growth proved surprisingly resilient in the third quarter of last year, with strong labor markets, robust household consumption and business investment, and better-than-expected adaptation to the energy crisis in Europe,” Gourinchas said, also noting that inflationary pressures have come down.

In addition, China announced the reopening of its economy after strict Covid lockdowns, which is expected to contribute to higher global growth. A weaker U.S. dollar has also brightened the prospects for emerging market countries that hold debt in foreign currency.

However, the picture isn’t totally positive. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned earlier this month that the economy was not as bad as some feared “but less bad doesn’t quite yet mean good.”

“We have to be cautious,” Georgieva said during a CNBC-moderated panel at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

The IMF on Monday warned of several factors that could deteriorate the outlook in the coming months. These included the fact that China’s Covid reopening could stall; inflation could remain high; Russia’s protracted invasion of Ukraine could shake energy and food costs even further; and markets could turn sour on worse-than-expected inflation prints.

IMF calculations say that about 84% of nations will face lower headline inflation this year compared to 2022, but they still forecast an annual average rate of 6.6% in 2023 and of 4.3% the following year.

As such, the Washington, D.C.-based institution said one of the main policy priorities is that central banks keep addressing the surge in consumer prices.

“Clear central bank communication and appropriate reactions to shifts in the data will help keep inflation expectations anchored and lessen wage and price pressures,” the IMF said in its latest report.

“Central banks’ balance sheets will need to be unwound carefully, amid market liquidity risks,” it added.

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Credit Suisse CEO says outflows have reduced ‘very significantly’ as overhaul progresses

Switzerland’s second largest bank Credit Suisse is seen here next to a Swiss flag in downtown Geneva.

Fabrice Coffrini | AFP | Getty Images

Credit Suisse is seeing a sharp reduction in client outflows, as the embattled Swiss lender progresses with its major strategic overhaul, new CEO Ulrich Koerner told CNBC on Wednesday.

The bank in November projected a $1.6 billion fourth-quarter loss after announcing a raft of measures to address persistent underperformance in its investment bank and a series of risk and compliance failures. It also revealed at the time that it had continued to experience substantial net asset outflows.

“The outflows, as we said, have reduced very significantly, and we are seeing now money coming back in different parts of the firm,” Koerner said on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

As part of the overhaul, Credit Suisse shareholders in November greenlit a $4.2 billion capital raise, including a new private share offering that will see the Saudi National Bank become the largest interest holder, with a 9.9% stake.

Koerner said the transformation towards a “new Credit Suisse” was going well.

“We laid out a very clear plan, and we talked to all different stakeholder groups in the last three months, as you would expect,” he said.

“I think the plan, the strategy resonates very much. We are in full execution swing, so I think we are making really good progress.”

Credit Suisse has also reached out to tens of thousands of clients in Switzerland and around the world for feedback, Koerner said.

“That has generated very positive momentum, and I think this is momentum that travels with us through 2023,” he added.

‘Zero concerns’ over Klein business acquisition

Koerner confirmed that the reported departure of 10% of Credit Suisse’s investment bankers in Europe was part of its previously announced plans to cut 2,700 jobs by 2023 and reduce headcount by a total 9,000 by 2025.

As part of the overhaul, Credit Suisse will spin off and rebrand its U.S. investment banking division as CS First Boston. The new unit will be headed by former Credit Suisse board member Michael Klein. Credit Suisse is reportedly on the verge of buying Klein’s boutique investment advisory firm.

Koerner insisted that he had “zero concerns” about conflicts of interest, stressing that the bank could deal with the situation “in the utmost professional way.”

“I am really looking forward for Michael to join, because Michael is an excellent banker, he is an excellent dealmaker, and he is very entrepreneurial, and that is why I want to go together with him on a journey.”

U.S. investor Harris Associates has more than halved its stake in Credit Suisse since June 2022. Koerner said he could not judge the firm for its timing, but “we will certainly have discussions.”

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UK inflation rate dips for second straight month to hit 10.5%

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LONDON — U.K. inflation eased on the month, in line with economists’ expectations, as fuel, clothing and recreational costs dragged down the index.

Inflation softened to 10.5% in December, down from the 10.7% of November, the British Office for National Statistics said Wednesday. A panel of economists polled by Reuters had projected the British consumer price index would reach 10.5% in December, down from the 41-year-high of 11.1% achieved in October.

The core CPI, which excludes food, energy, alcohol and tobacco, was steady on the month at 6.3% in December, the ONS found.

The agency said the largest downward contribution came from the transport, clothing and recreation sectors, offsetting hikes in housing and household services, food and non-alcoholic beverages.

Inflation rates have spiked across 2022, fueled by surges in energy prices as Western sanctions bite into access to Russian oil and gas supplies. Policymakers have been combatting rising inflation with a spate of interest rate increases, with British premier Rishi Sunak on Jan. 4 pledging to halve U.K. headline inflation to “ease the cost of living and give people financial security.”

The Bank of England most recently lifted its main interest rate by 0.5 percentage points to 3.5% on Dec. 15. Financial markets anticipate a further rise to 4% when it meets to determine its next monetary policy steps on Feb. 2, according to Reuters.

The U.K. has been rocked by waves of industrial action since the end of last year, with teachers, train transport staff, civil service professionals and nurses set to strike this month and in early February. The government has responded with an anti-strike bill proposal intended to mandate “minimum service regulations.”

Worker pay remains dwarfed by the pace of inflation, with average U.K. wages recording a 6.4% year-on-year increase over the September-November 2022 period, the ONS said on Jan. 17.

“While there is some indication that inflation may have reached its peak, prices will remain high in the coming months,” warned Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the British Retail Consortium.

“Retailers are determined to support their customers throughout this cost-of-living crisis. They are keeping the price of many essentials affordable, expanding their value ranges, raising pay for their own staff, and offering discounts for vulnerable groups.”

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$1.4 trillion wipeout hits crypto industry at WEF

Along the Davos Promenade in 2023 there were fewer crypto companies than in previous years after the market crash. Circle, the company behind the stablecoin USDC, was one the few present.

Arjun Kharpal | CNBC

DAVOS, Switzerland — Over the past few years at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, the number of cryptocurrency industry attendees has boomed.

But after a near $1.4 trillion wipeout in 2022, the crypto industry is being a bit more reserved with how it splashes the cash and several companies spotted last year are not in attendance. 2022 was marked by failed crypto projects, liquidity issues and bankruptcies, topped off by the collapse of major exchange FTX.

When the World Economic Forum was held last May, bitcoin was hovering around $30,000, after having already fallen more than 50% from its all-time high hit in November 2021. More pain followed with bitcoin dipping as low as $15,480.

The Promenade is the main street in Davos where companies and governments take over shops and cafes for the week. Last year, crypto firms from all walks of life took over the place. But since the market slide, there are far fewer crypto firms with flashy store fronts at Davos.

One shop selling non-fungible tokens, or NFTs, has disappeared. Prices of NFTs, which are digital collectibles, also plunged last year. What’s left are companies that survived the bear market and that are looking to expand their businesses.

“It’s very clear that the speculation period is drawing to a close and every company that you see featured … is really focused on real-world use cases,” said Teana Baker-Taylor, vice-president of policy and regulatory strategy at Circle, the company behind the USDC stablecoin.

A stablecoin is a type of digital currency that is supposed to be pegged one-to-one with a fiat currency. USDC is pegged to the U.S. dollar. Circle says it is backed with real-world assets such as U.S. Treasurys so that one USDC can be redeemed for $1.

Casper Labs, a company that has built a blockchain designed to be used by businesses, is running a space on the Promenade called the Blockchain Lab. Casper Labs was also present last year in Davos.

Cliff Sarkin, chief of strategic relations at Casper Labs, said he’s “cautiously optimistic” that the crypto market has bottomed.

“So we’re over a year into the bear market, so I think the shock of that is settled in and for those of us that have been in the space for years … we feel like this is the time to build,” Sarkin told CNBC.

He added that the crypto firms that have remained at Davos are “substantiative projects” and “the real deals” versus things like NFTs.

There were also those in traditional finance who welcomed fewer crypto firms.

Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, was asked during an event hosted by the Swiss bank what he would like to see in Davos this year. He said he had seen it already: “It’s less crypto on the main street.”

The mysterious case of the orange bitcoin car

On Monday, a flashy bright orange Mercedes-Benz car was parked outside of the Blockchain Hub on the Promenade.

The orange Mercedes was parked along the Promenade in Davos. Nobody in the vicinity saw who parked it there. The license plate says “Kuna” on it, which is the name of a Ukrainian cryptocurrency exchange.

Arjun Kharpal | CNBC

A coin that represented a bitcoin was placed where the Mercedes-Benz logo would usually be. On the tires and the licenses plate, the words “in crypto we trust” were printed. The license plate had the Ukrainian flag on it and the name Kuna, which is the company behind a cryptocurrency exchange of the same name.

Kuna also set up the “reserve fund of Ukraine” after the war with Russia began where people could donate crypto to Ukraine.

People in the vicinity that CNBC spoke to could not verify who parked the car there.

However, two crypto executives who spoke to CNBC did not welcome the orange car, particularly after the market crash and the excesses of the industry were exposed. One remarked that the presence of such a car was not helpful for the industry’s reputation which took a hit last year.

CNBC reached out to Semen Kaploushenko, CEO of the Kuna exchange, via LinkedIn, but is yet to receive a response.

CNBC also reached out to the Blockchain Association of Ukraine which Kuna founder Michael Chobanian is the president of, but is yet to receive a response.

The license plate and tyres had the words “in crypto we trust” printed on them.

CNBC | Arjun Kharpal

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China reports 3% GDP growth for 2022 as December retail sales, industrial production beat estimates

Chinese officials expect about twice the number of Lunar New Year trips this year as last year since many people can return to their hometowns without any Covid restrictions. Pictured here is the Jinan West Railway Station on Jan. 15, 2023.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

BEIJING — China reported GDP growth for 2022 that beat expectations as December retail sales came in far better than projected.

GDP grew by 3% in 2022, the National Bureau of Statistics said Tuesday. That was better than the 2.8% forecast in a Reuters’ poll. The GDP growth number did miss the official target of around 5.5% set in March. In 2021, China’s growth had rebounded by 8.4% from just 2.2% growth in 2020.

Fourth-quarter GDP rose by 2.9%, beating expectations from the Reuters’ poll of 1.8% growth.

Retail sales fell by 0.2% for the year. But retail sales in December declined by 1.8% from a year ago, less than the expected 8.6% plunge predicted by a Reuters’ poll.

Within retail sales, those of catering fell by 6.3% in 2022. Sales of apparel, cosmetics and jewelry all declined for the year. Medicine was one of the bright spots, after sales surged by nearly 40% in December from a year ago.

Online retail sales of physical goods rose by 17.2% in December from a year ago, according to CNBC calculations of official data accessed through Wind. Those online sales accounted for 27.2% of total retail sales.

In 2022, the metropolis of Shanghai locked down for about two months in an attempt to control a Covid outbreak. China’s stringent zero-Covid policy restricted travel and business activity across the country.

Authorities abruptly relaxed most controls in early December, amid a surge in local infections. While far more people plan to travel around the upcoming Lunar New Year, analysts expect Chinese consumer sentiment will take a few months to recover.

Industrial production rose by 3.6% in 2022. The figure rose by 1.3% in December, well above the 0.2% predicted by the Reuters’ poll.

Fixed asset investment for 2022 rose by 5.1%, slightly above the 5% expected by Reuters. Infrastructure investment on a year-to-date basis grew faster in December than in November, while investment into manufacturing slowed its growth. Real estate investment fell by 10% in 2022, a steeper drop than recorded for the year through November.

The unemployment rate in cities was 5.5.% as of December, while that of younger people ages 16 to 24 remained far higher at 16.7%.

“The foundation of (the) domestic economic recovery is not solid as the international situation is still complicated and severe while the domestic triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectations is still looming,” the statistics bureau said in a release.

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China’s exports slump less than expected in December

Cargo ships dock at the container terminal in Lianyungang Port, East China’s Jiangsu province, Dec 7, 2022.

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BEIJING — China’s exports and imports fell less than expected in December, the customs administration said Friday.

The milder slump meant trade still grew for all of 2022.

China’s exports fell by 9.9% in December from a year ago in U.S.-dollar terms, slightly better than the 10% decline forecast by a Reuters’ poll.

China’s imports fell by 7.5% year-on-year in December in U.S.-dollar terms, also better than the 9.8% decline predicted by Reuters.

Strong exports bolstered China’s economy in the last two years. But economists anticipate a slowdown in demand from the U.S. and Europe.

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Already, China’s exports started to fall year-on-year in October — for the first time since May 2020, according to Wind Information.

For all of 2022, China’s exports grew by 7.7% and imports by 1.1%, the customs agency said.

Cross-border e-commerce between China and other countries grew by 9.8% in 2022 from a year ago to 2.11 trillion yuan ($301.42 billion), according to official figures. Such direct-to-consumer exports rose by 11.7% year-on-year.

However, that marked a slowdown from 2021, when China’s cross-border e-commerce rose by 15% to 1.98 trillion yuan ($311.5 billion), and exports surged by 24.5%.

China’s imports from the EU and the U.S. fell in 2022, while those from ASEAN grew slightly.

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Pfizer CEO says there will be no generic Paxlovid for China

An online pharmacy lists Pfizer’s oral anti-Covid drug Paxlovid for 2,980 yuan per box in in Suqian, Jiangsu province, China on Dec. 13, 2022.

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Pfizer is not in talks with Chinese authorities to license a generic version of its Covid-19 treatment Paxlovid for use there, but is in discussions about a price for the branded product, Chief Executive Albert Bourla said on Monday.

Reuters reported on Friday that China was in talks with Pfizer to secure a license that will allow domestic drugmakers to manufacture and distribute a generic version of the U.S. firm’s Covid-19 antiviral drug Paxlovid in China.

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Referring to that report, Bourla speaking at JPMorgan’s healthcare conference in San Francisco, said “We are not in discussions. We have an agreement already for local manufacturing of Paxlovid in China. So we have a local partner that will make Paxlovid for us, and then we will sell it to the Chinese market.”

Bourla said the company had shipped thousands of courses of the treatment in 2022 to China and in the past couple of weeks, had increased that to millions.

On Sunday, China’s Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) said that the country would not include Paxlovid in an update to its list of medicines covered by basic medical insurance schemes as the U.S. firm quoted a high price for the Covid-19 drug.

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Bourla said that talks with China on future pricing for the treatment had broken off after China had asked for a lower price than Pfizer is charging for most lower middle income countries.

“They are the second highest economy in the world and I don’t think that they should pay less than El Salvador,” Bourla said.

Still, Bourla said the removal from the list would not have an effect on the company’s business there until April. He said the company had shipped millions of courses of the drug to China in recent weeks.

The company could end up selling only to the private market in China, he said.

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European markets open to close; data, news and earnings

LONDON — European stocks moved higher on Tuesday as positive sentiment continues in the final trading days of 2022.

Germany’s DAX climbed by around 0.8% in early trade, while France’s CAC 40 was up around 0.9% and Italy’s FTSE MIB around 0.7%. The U.K.’s FTSE index is closed Tuesday for a public holiday.

Sector-wise, autos and chemicals both added 1.6% to lead gains as most sectors traded in positive territory.

Stocks in Europe received a boost from their counterparts in Asia-Pacific after China officially announced overnight that it will end quarantine for inbound travelers on Jan. 8 — symbolizing an end to the zero-Covid policy that it has held for nearly three years. Health officials are slated to hold a press briefing on Covid at 3 p.m. Beijing time.

The Shanghai Composite rose 1% and the Shenzhen Component gained 0.9% on the news while markets in Hong Kong, Australia and New Zealand were closed for the Christmas holiday.

Stateside, U.S. stock futures rose on Tuesday morning as investors looked to see whether a Santa Claus rally will appear before year-end.

Friday marked the start of the time period for a Santa Claus rally, which is typically considered the final five-day trading stretch in the current year, as well as the first two trading days in the new year. Markets were closed Monday for the Christmas holiday.

There are no major earnings or data releases in Europe on Tuesday.

— CNBC’s Sarah Min and Jihye Lee contributed to this market report.

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World Economy Is Headed For A Recession In 2023, Says Researcher

The findings are more pessimistic than the latest forecast from the International Monetary Fund.

The world faces a recession in 2023 higher borrowing costs aimed at tackling inflation cause a number of economies to contract, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research.
The global economy surpassed $100 trillion for the first time in 2022 but will stall in 2023 as policy makers continue their fight against soaring prices, the British consultancy said in its annual World Economic League Table.

“It’s likely that the world economy will face recession next year as a result of the rises in interest rates in response to higher inflation,” said Kay Daniel Neufeld, director and head of Forecasting at CEBR.

The report added that, “The battle against inflation is not won yet. We expect central bankers to stick to their guns in 2023 despite the economic costs. The cost of bringing inflation down to more comfortable levels is a poorer growth outlook for a number of years to come.”

The findings are more pessimistic than the latest forecast from the International Monetary Fund. That institution warned in October that more than a third of the world economy will contract and there is a 25% chance of global GDP growing by less than 2% in 2023, which it defines as a global recession.

Even so, by 2037, world gross domestic product will have doubled as developing economies catch up with the richer ones. The shifting balance of power will see the East Asia and Pacific region account for over a third of global output by 2037, while Europe’s share shrinks to less than a fifth.

The CEBR takes its base data from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook and uses an internal model to forecast growth, inflation and exchange rates.

China is now not set to overtake the US as the world’s largest economy until 2036 at the earliest – six years later than expected. That reflects China’s zero Covid policy and rising trade tensions with the west slow, which have slowed its expansion.

CEBR had originally expected the switch in 2028, which it pushed back to 2030 in last year’s league table. It now thinks the cross-over point will not happen until 2036 and may come even later if Beijing tries to take control of Taiwan and faces retaliatory trade sanctions.

“The consequences of economic warfare between China and the West would be several times more severe than what we have seen following Russia’s attack on Ukraine. There would almost certainly be quite a sharp world recession and a resurgence of inflation,” CEBR said.

“But the damage to China would be many times greater and this could well torpedo any attempt to lead the world economy.”

It also predicted that:

India will become the third $10 trillion economy in 2035 and the world’s third largest by 2032

The UK will remain the world’s sixth largest economy, and France seventh, over the next 15 years but Britain is no longer set to grow faster than European peers due to “an absence of growth oriented policies and the lack of a clear vision of its role outside of the European Union.”

Emerging economies with natural resources will get a “substantial boost” as fossil fuels play an important part in the switch to renewable energy

The global economy is a long way from the $80,000 per capita GDP level at which carbon emissions decouple from growth, which means further policy interventions are needed to hit the target of limiting global warming to just 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

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These countries are looking beyond GDP and economic growth

“The need for a new economic model has never been clearer,” Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon told CNBC. “Which I think is why we’re seeing such growing interest in the well-being economy approach, both here in Scotland and around the world.”

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LONDON — For a small but growing network of countries, the world’s go-to metric of economic health is no longer fit for purpose.

Mostly led by women, Finland, Iceland, Scotland, Wales and New Zealand are all members of the Wellbeing Economy Governments partnership. The coalition, which is expected to expand in the coming months, aims to transform economies around the world to deliver shared well-being for people and the planet by 2040.

That means abandoning the idea that the percentage change in gross domestic product is a good indicator of progress, and instead reframing economic policy to deliver quality of life for all people in harmony with the environment.

“The need for a new economic model has never been clearer,” Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon told CNBC. “Which I think is why we’re seeing such growing interest in the well-being economy approach, both here in Scotland and around the world.”

Encouraging other policymakers to consider an economic approach centered on well-being, Sturgeon said multiple global crises, such as the climate emergency, biodiversity loss and the cost-of-living crisis, “raise fundamental questions about what we value — and what our economies are actually for.”

“Building a wellbeing economy is a huge challenge for any country, at any time, and the current crises we are facing make it harder — but they also underline why we need to make this transformation as a matter of urgency,” Sturgeon said. “We’ve made progress over the past five years, but we still have much more to do.”

I often say that we need to shift from power, profit and patriarchy to people, planet and prosperity.

Sandrine Dixson-Declève

Co-president of the Club of Rome

In just the last few months, New Zealand published its first national Wellbeing Report; the European Union recognized the need to shift to a well-being economy; and the World Health Organization launched an initiative that calls for well-being to be at the heart of economic recovery.

Australia, Canada and Costa Rica are among some of the countries to have worked closely with the Wellbeing Economy Governments partnership in recent months, and “post-growth” advocates believe it is just a matter of time before more countries embrace the well-being movement. A post-growth society is one that resists the demand for constant economic growth.

‘Building the plane as we fly it’

Dominick Stephens, chief economic advisor at the Treasury in New Zealand, hailed the country’s first well-being report as a “landmark moment,” saying it aims to provide lawmakers with a big-picture view of what life is like in the South Pacific nation.

“We want to look beyond GDP to understand progress, but we don’t have a singular measure of wellbeing — so we need to look across a range of indicators and evidence to understand progress in this broader sense,” Stephens told CNBC.

“This helps us all to understand where New Zealand is doing well, where we are lagging and how wellbeing is experienced differently for different people in our country.”

Among the findings published on Nov. 24, the report highlighted the wide and growing gap between the well-being of older citizens and that of younger citizens, with older citizens faring better on a range of metrics.

Mostly led by women, Finland, Iceland, Scotland, Wales and New Zealand are all members of the Wellbeing Economy Governments partnership.

Fiona Goodall | Getty Images News | Getty Images

The Treasury identified three priority areas in need of improvement: mental health; educational achievement; and housing affordability and quality.

Stephens said that while the report would not be the final word, it’s now up to New Zealanders to decide on the extent to which they are concerned about those issues and the actions needed to address them.

“We do not have a silver bullet in New Zealand on how to do Wellbeing Reporting well,” Stephens said. “Different countries have taken different approaches. We are, in some ways, building the plane as we fly it.”

“More countries trying different approaches to integrating wellbeing analysis into policy means more opportunities for New Zealand, and other countries, to learn from the experiences of others,” he added.

The ‘Limits to Growth’ — 50 years on

The gathering momentum for a transformation of the current economic system comes half a century after the Club of Rome think tank published its groundbreaking “Limits to Growth” report.

The 1972 book warned that the planet’s resources would not be able to support the exponential rates of economic and population growth and would therefore collapse before the end of this century. Broadly speaking — and following a sharp backlash to its dire predictions at the time — the world has gone down the path that the book’s authors predicted it would.

Academics and economists told CNBC that an ultimatum from the world’s top climate scientists about the dangers of exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius of global heating — a critically important temperature threshold beyond which dangerous tipping points become more likely — underscores the need to end an obsession with growth at all costs.

“If they hadn’t realized it 50 years ago that we already needed to shift, I think now is the time because we are confronted with a polycrisis,” Sandrine Dixson-Declève, co-president of the Club of Rome think tank, told CNBC via telephone.

The term “polycrisis” refers to crises that occur in multiple global systems and become entangled in such a way that they produce harms greater than those crises would in aggregate.

“Not only is our planet sick from continued growth scenarios, because we have gone way beyond a healthy use of natural resources, but our people are getting increasingly sick, and our young people are making less and less money,” Dixson-Declève said.

When asked whether that means she believes there is no alternative to a well-being strategy, Dixson-Declève replied, “Yes, absolutely. I often say that we need to shift from power, profit and patriarchy to people, planet and prosperity.”

Just how important is GDP?

U.S. Senator Robert F. Kennedy once said a country’s GDP measures everything “except that which makes life worthwhile.”

Critics of GDP, which represents the total value of goods and services over a specific time period, argue that the indicator is misleading because it measures “the good, the bad and the ugly” of economic activity and calls it all good.

GDP does not, for instance, take into account unpaid work, nor does it distinguish between economic activity which contributes positively or negatively to the health and well-being of people and the natural environment.

I think it just shows our lack of imagination. We can’t even imagine an economy that is better than growth.

Katherine Trebeck

Co-founder of the Wellbeing Economy Alliance

In the U.K., Rishi Sunak said in his first speech as prime minister that his predecessor Liz Truss was not wrong to want to improve economic growth in the country. “It is a noble aim,” Sunak said outside Downing Street on Oct. 25.

Three months earlier, opposition Labour Party leader Keir Starmer said Britain needed three things to fix its broken social contract. “Growth. Growth. And growth.”

“I think it just shows our lack of imagination. We can’t even imagine an economy that is better than growth,” said Katherine Trebeck, co-founder of the Wellbeing Economy Alliance, a network of academics, businesses and social movements.

“The best we can do is put some nice adjectives in front of growth — sustainable growth, green growth, inclusive growth, shared growth — but we are almost not allowed to entertain the prospect that a growing economy is a 20th-century recipe,” she added.

“High-income nations have got enough in overall terms but there are huge profound inequalities within the richest countries. So, what they need to do is think about how to share and cherish those resources,” Trebeck said.

“I use the phrase that they need to recognize that they’ve arrived. The job of growth has been done and they need to now move to a second project which is about making themselves at home.”

Trebeck described well-being economics as a “picnic blanket term,” which encompasses movements such as “degrowth,” “doughnut” economics or circular and regenerative models rather than an alternative policy.

“I think there is a profound moral obligation [on high-income countries] because they are taking up more than their ecological fair share which is implicitly saying that countries around the world that don’t have enough to meet the basic material needs of their citizens are effectively going to stay there,” Trebeck said.

“It is about really saying how do we live fairly on this one finite planet?”

‘GDP is not a way to measure richness’

The push to look beyond economic growth comes at a time of growing calls to end fossil fuel production worldwide.

“Basically, with a growth commitment, you have a commitment to more energy and material use which then consequently results in environmental impacts — and it makes decarbonization harder,” Julia Steinberger, ecological economist at the University of Lausanne, told CNBC via telephone.

“What you need to do for decarbonization is you need to stop using all fossil fuels and replace energy demand with renewable or low or zero-carbon energy sources and that is harder to do [and] it is going to take longer to do if we have constantly growing energy demand,” Steinberger said. “That’s the climate case for it.”

The South Pacific island nation of Tuvalu last month became the first country to use the U.N.’s annual climate summit to push for a fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty. The European Parliament, the Vatican and WHO have all backed the proposal.

But only a handful of small countries have endorsed the initiative to date, and the fossil fuel industry has typically sought to underline the importance of energy security in the planned transition to renewables.

The burning of fossil fuels — such as coal, oil and gas — is the chief driver of the climate emergency.

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres recently called out what he described as the “massive public relations machine raking in billions to shield the fossil fuel industry from scrutiny.”

Sean Gallup | Getty Images News | Getty Images

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres also recently joined a chorus of voices calling for GDP to be dropped as the world’s go-to indicator of economic growth, pushing instead for policymakers to shift to a circular economy.

This refers to an economic system that is based on the reuse and repair of materials to extend the life cycle of products for as long as possible and moves away from the world’s current “take, make, throw away” model.

“We need to change course — now — and end our senseless and suicidal war against nature,” Guterres said at a major international environmental meeting in early June.

“We must place true value on the environment and go beyond Gross Domestic Product as a measure of human progress and wellbeing,” Guterres said. “Let us not forget that when we destroy a forest, we are creating GDP. When we overfish, we are creating GDP. GDP is not a way to measure richness in the present situation in the world.”

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