Tag Archives: Wither

“We’re watching Russia wither before our eyes,” former US defense chief says

Former US Defense Secretary James Mattis criticized Russia’s war in Ukraine, calling it “immoral” and “operationally stupid,” while speaking Friday at the Seoul Forum 2022. 

“We have a saying in America, we say that nations with allies thrive, nations without allies wither and we’re watching Russia wither before our eyes right now,” Mattis said.

When asked what military lessons could be taken from the war so far, the former US Marine said: “One is don’t have incompetent generals in charge of your operations.” 

He also called Russia’s military performance “pathetic” and decried “the immoral, the tactically incompetent, operationally stupid and strategically foolish effort” of its campaign in Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a news conference after meeting his Indonesian counterpart at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, on June 30. (Alexander Zemlianichenko/AFP/Getty Images)

Mattis spoke of previous US efforts to try and bring Russia into the “community of nations,” but said that was not possible with Vladimir Putin as leader.

“The tragedy of our time is that Putin is a creature straight out of Dostoevsky. He goes to bed every night angry, he goes to bed every night fearful, he goes to bed every night thinking that Russia is surrounded by nightmares and this has guided him,” he said.

Putin had removed anyone from his circle that would disagree with him, so he “probably thought that the Ukrainian people were going to welcome him,” Mattis added.

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“We’re watching Russia wither before our eyes,” former US defense chief says

Former US Defense Secretary James Mattis criticized Russia’s war in Ukraine, calling it “immoral” and “operationally stupid,” while speaking Friday at the Seoul Forum 2022. 

“We have a saying in America, we say that nations with allies thrive, nations without allies wither and we’re watching Russia wither before our eyes right now,” Mattis said.

When asked what military lessons could be taken from the war so far, the former US Marine said: “One is don’t have incompetent generals in charge of your operations.” 

He also called Russia’s military performance “pathetic” and decried “the immoral, the tactically incompetent, operationally stupid and strategically foolish effort” of its campaign in Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a news conference after meeting his Indonesian counterpart at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, on June 30. (Alexander Zemlianichenko/AFP/Getty Images)

Mattis spoke of previous US efforts to try and bring Russia into the “community of nations,” but said that was not possible with Vladimir Putin as leader.

“The tragedy of our time is that Putin is a creature straight out of Dostoevsky. He goes to bed every night angry, he goes to bed every night fearful, he goes to bed every night thinking that Russia is surrounded by nightmares and this has guided him,” he said.

Putin had removed anyone from his circle that would disagree with him, so he “probably thought that the Ukrainian people were going to welcome him,” Mattis added.

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In Eastern Ukraine’s Largest City, Pro-Russia Sympathies Wither as War Looms

KHARKIV, Ukraine—An unexploded long-range Russian rocket, brought here from the war-torn Donetsk region to the south, sticks out from the ground opposite the government headquarters of Ukraine’s second-largest city.

Back in 2014, when Ukraine’s military conflict with Russia began, pro-Moscow militants seized this government compound, planted a Russian flag on its roof and proclaimed a short-lived breakaway republic.

At the time, pro-Russian sentiment ran high in this industrial city of 1.4 million people just a half-hour drive from the border.

Eight years later, as Russia has massed more than 100,000 troops around Ukraine, Ukrainian President

Volodymyr Zelensky

has pointed to Kharkiv as a likely target of an invasion.

But while the city may have been a relatively easy target for Moscow in the past, sentiment here has since shifted dramatically against the Kremlin. Any Russian military operation in Kharkiv is now likely to face significant resistance from ordinary civilians.

In 2014, with street clashes and shootouts between pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian groups spreading, it seemed for a few days that overwhelmingly Russian-speaking Kharkiv, just like nearby Donetsk and Luhansk, would slip from Kyiv’s control. Only the intervention of a quick-reaction force dispatched from southwestern Ukraine restored central authority here.

A Ukrainian service member takes part in military drills at a shooting range in Kharkiv.



Photo:

UKRAINIAN ARMED FORCES/via REUTERS

Today, the newly created 113th territorial-defense brigade, part of a military force that would defend Kharkiv against a possible invasion, has more many volunteers than slots, and is beginning to turn people away, its commanders say. A second Kharkiv brigade is being formed to take in these recruits.

“It’s every segment of society, from nuclear physicists to shop assistants to engineers to students, asking to join,” says Mykhailo Sokolov, the 113th brigade’s chief noncommissioned officer. “We will all defend our homes, our spouses, our children, our lovers with weapons in our hands. If their aviation tries to destroy us from the air, we will dig in to fight from under the ground. Where can we retreat to? There’s nowhere to go. It’s our own land.”

The reason for this defiance is simple: Kharkiv residents are keenly aware of what has happened in Donetsk and Luhansk since that region fell under Russian sway in 2014. The economy there has shriveled. Businesses, homes and cars were expropriated by Russian-installed militias. People suspected of pro-Kyiv sympathies were shot or imprisoned. Most residents who could afford to have fled to government-held parts of Ukraine, especially Kharkiv, or to more prosperous Russia.

Even traditionally pro-Russian politicians in Kharkiv acknowledge the force of this example.

Military exercises at a training ground outside Kharkiv.



Photo:

VYACHESLAV MADIYEVSKYY/REUTERS

The exercises are being held as Kharkiv has been singled out as a likely target of a Russian invasion.



Photo:

VYACHESLAV MADIYEVSKYY/REUTERS

“There are no fools anymore. People see that things are bad in Donetsk and Luhansk, and that things are good here. They have war over there and we have peace and quiet over here,” says Sergey Gladkoskok, who heads Opposition Platform for Life, the country’s main Moscow-friendly party, in Kharkiv’s regional legislature.

So far, there is little sign of crisis in the city. Shopping malls, restaurants and bars are teeming with customers, and no armed troops or military equipment can be seen on Kharkiv’s streets. There is no panic shopping, and supermarkets are fully stocked.

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Kharkiv regional Gov. Oleh Syniehubov says he has just toured Ukrainian military units deployed along the border and was told that no unusual Russian military activity suggesting an invasion in the immediate future had been observed within 50 kilometers of the frontier. The only indicator of possible trouble so far, he adds, is that some car importers have become reluctant to send new vehicles to Kharkiv’s showrooms, aware of how new cars were looted from Donetsk dealerships in 2014.

Kharkiv holds a special place in Ukrainian history. When the Soviets quashed an independent Ukraine just over a century ago, they established Kharkiv as the capital of the new Ukrainian Soviet republic. The Soviet Ukrainian government, seated in Kharkiv’s modernist Derzhprom building, considered to be Europe’s first skyscraper, returned to Kyiv in 1934.

A showcase of Stalin’s industrialization drive, Kharkiv was also one of the hubs of the Soviet military might, from tank building to nuclear-bomb technologies. Those industries began to decay as new international borders cut them off from traditional customers and suppliers in Russia in 1991. Many closed altogether after Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula and fanned the military conflict in Donetsk and Luhansk in 2014.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky taking part in a celebration of the armed forces in Kharkiv in December.



Photo:

presidential press service hando/Shutterstock

“Local businesspeople’s attitudes to Russia are mostly negative now. We’ve lost a lot from this conflict, the market is feverish because of the constant threat of an invasion, and the prices of Russian gas have become so high that using it is often no longer feasible,” says Oleksandr Popov, who owns a hunting-rifle manufacturer, a network of fitness clubs and a security company in Kharkiv. Mr. Popov says these companies currently employ 600 people in total, down from roughly 2,000 in 2014.

Back in 2014, as Russian militants poured into Kharkiv across the then-porous border, about 30% of the city’s population harbored loyalty to the Ukrainian state, estimates Kostyantyn Nemichev, who heads the defense committee uniting pro-Ukrainian groups in the city and leads the local branch of the far-right National Corps party.

After being ousted by street protests in Kyiv in February 2014, Russian-backed President Viktor Yanukovych initially flew to Kharkiv, where a congress of pro-Russian politicians and elected officials from all over eastern and southern Ukraine had convened. After a short stay here, Mr. Yanukovych proceeded to Crimea and then escaped to Russia.

At the time, Mr. Nemichev was a 19-year-old fan of the local soccer team, FC Metalist, whose supporters fought street battles against pro-Russian youths as Kharkiv’s law-enforcement authorities remained largely neutral, waiting to see which side would emerge victorious.

After weeks of wavering, the city’s mayor and power broker, Hennady Kernes, a former ally of Mr. Yanukovych, sided with the Ukrainian state, and shortly afterward survived being shot by a sniper. Militants of the local pro-Russian group, Oplot, escaped the city to Donetsk, and many other locals with pro-Russian sympathies have since emigrated to Russia.

Now, Mr. Nemichev estimates, some 70% of the city’s residents are loyal to Ukraine, with a quarter, mostly older people, remaining nostalgic for the Soviet past and only about 5% actively supporting Russian President

Vladimir Putin.

Sentiment in Kharkiv has switched in favor of Ukraine in the past few years.



Photo:

Vyacheslav Madiyevskyi/Zuma Press

“Pro-Russian forces are no longer present on the street. Pro-Ukrainian forces are much stronger, much larger, and possess a military experience,” says Mr. Nemichev, a Ukrainian army veteran who joined a volunteer battalion to fight Russia-backed troops in Donetsk in 2014. “If the Russian army were to come here, they would probably stop at the outskirts of Kharkiv and try to get these pro-Russian forces to rise up from within. Our duty as Kharkivites would then be to extinguish these separatist feelings while our army does its own job.”

It is hard to measure the extent of remaining support for the Kremlin, in part because publicly backing calls to attach Kharkiv to Russia constitutes a criminal offense under Ukrainian law. Billboards of Ukraine’s intelligence service all over Kharkiv provide a hotline to call in separatist threats. Still, in some parts of the city, graffiti proclaiming “Russia: Aggressor” have been altered to become unreadable, presumably by locals who hold a different view of Moscow.

Unlike Kyiv, which has undergone a linguistic transformation in the past eight years, with a much larger share of the population choosing to communicate in Ukrainian rather than Russian, Kharkiv remains overwhelmingly Russian-speaking, like many other cities of eastern and southern Ukraine. That, however, shouldn’t be mistaken for local affinity with the Kremlin or Mr. Putin, said Tetiana Yehorova-Lutsenko, the head of the Kharkiv regional legislature.

“Even if people communicate in Russian, they certainly don’t have the same way of thinking as the people who live in Russia, or as the people who want to live in Russia,” she said. “They think the Ukrainian way. They want to live in a country at peace.”

Festivities in Kharkiv marking the 30th anniversary of Ukraine’s independence in August last year.



Photo:

Vyacheslav Madiyevskyi/Zuma Press

Write to Yaroslav Trofimov at yaroslav.trofimov@wsj.com

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‘What Have We Done With Democracy?’ A Decade On, Arab Spring Gains Wither

TUNIS, Tunisia — For roughly three months after Tunisians toppled their dictator in January 2011 in an eruption of protest that electrified the Arab world, Ali Bousselmi felt nothing but “pure happiness.”

The decade that followed, during which Tunisians adopted a new Constitution, gained freedom of speech and voted in free and fair elections, brought Mr. Bousselmi its own rewards. He co-founded a gay rights group — an impossibility before 2011, when the gay scene was forced to hide deep underground.

But as the revolution’s high hopes curdled into political chaos and economic failure, Mr. Bousselmi, like many Tunisians, said he began to wonder whether his country would be better off with a single ruler, one powerful enough to just get things done.

“I ask myself, what have we done with democracy?” said Mr. Bousselmi, 32, the executive director of Mawjoudin, meaning “We Exist” in Arabic. “We have corrupt members of Parliament, and if you go into the street, you can see that people can’t even afford a sandwich. And then suddenly, there was a magic wand saying things were going to change.”

That wand was held by Kais Saied, Tunisia’s democratically elected president, who, on July 25, froze Parliament and fired the prime minister, vowing to attack corruption and return power to the people. It was a power grab that an overwhelming majority of Tunisians greeted with joy and relief.

July 25 has made it harder than ever to tell a hopeful story about the Arab Spring.

Held up by Western supporters and Arab sympathizers alike as proof that democracy could bloom in the Middle East, Tunisia now looks to many like a final confirmation of the uprisings’ failed promise. The birthplace of the Arab revolts, it is now ruled by one-man decree.

Elsewhere, wars that followed the uprisings have devastated Syria, Libya and Yemen. Autocrats smothered protest in the Gulf. Egyptians elected a president before embracing a military dictatorship.

Still, the revolutions proved that power, traditionally wielded from the top down, could also be driven by a fired-up street.

It was a lesson the Tunisians, who recently flooded the streets again to demonstrate against Parliament and for Mr. Saied, have reaffirmed. This time, however, the people lashed out at democracy, not at an autocrat.

“The Arab Spring will continue,” predicted Tarek Megerisi, a North Africa specialist at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “No matter how much you try to repress it or how much the environment around it changes, desperate people will still try to secure their rights.”

Mr. Saied’s popularity stems from the same grievances that propelled Tunisians, Bahrainis, Egyptians, Yemenis, Syrians and Libyans to protest a decade ago — corruption, unemployment, repression and an inability to make ends meet. Ten years on, Tunisians felt themselves backsliding on virtually everything except freedom of expression.

“We got nothing out of the revolution,” said Houyem Boukchina, 48, a resident of Jabal Ahmar, a working-class neighborhood in the capital, Tunis. “We still don’t know what the plan is, but we live on the basis of hope,” she said of Mr. Saied.

But popular backlashes can still threaten autocracy.

Mindful of their people’s simmering grievances, Arab rulers have doubled down on repression instead of addressing the issues, their ruthlessness only inviting more upheaval in the future, analysts warned.

In Mr. Saied’s case, his gambit depends on economic progress. Tunisia faces a looming fiscal crisis, with billions in debt coming due this fall. If the government fires public workers and cuts wages and subsidies, if prices and employment do not improve, public sentiment is likely to U-turn.

An economic collapse would pose problems not only for Mr. Saied, but also for Europe, whose shores draw desperate Tunisian migrants in boats by the thousands each year.

Yet Mr. Saied’s office has not made any contact with the International Monetary Fund officials who are waiting to negotiate a bailout, according to a senior Western diplomat. Nor has he taken any measures other than requesting chicken sellers and iron merchants to lower prices, telling them it was their national duty.

“People don’t necessarily support Saied, they just hated what Saied broke,” Mr. Megerisi said. “That’s going to be gone pretty quickly when they find he’s not delivering for them, either.”

For Western governments, which initially backed the uprisings then returned in the name of stability to partnering with the autocrats who survived them, Tunisia may serve as a reminder of what motivated Arab protesters a decade ago — and what could bring them into the streets again.

While many demonstrators demanded democracy, others chanted for more tangible outcomes: an end to corruption, lower food prices, jobs.

From outside, it was easy to cheer the hundreds of thousands of protesters who surged into Cairo’s Tahrir Square, easy to forget the tens of millions of Egyptians who stayed home.

“The people pushing for Parliament, democracy, freedoms, we weren’t the biggest part of the revolution,” said Yassine Ayari, an independent Tunisian lawmaker recently imprisoned after he denounced Mr. Saied’s power grab. “Maybe a lot of Tunisians didn’t want the revolution. Maybe people just want beer and security. That’s a hard question, a question I don’t want to ask myself,” he added.

“But I don’t blame the people. We had a chance to show them how democracy could change their lives, and we failed.”

The revolution equipped Tunisians with some tools to solve problems, but not the solutions they had expected, Mr. Ayari said. With more needs than governing experience, he said, they had little patience for the time-consuming mess of democracy.

A Constitution, the ballot box and a Parliament did not automatically give rise to opportunity or accountability, a state of affairs that Westerners may find all too familiar. Parliament descended into name-calling and fistfights. Political parties formed and re-formed without offering better ideas. Corruption spread.

“I don’t think that a Western-style liberal democracy can or should be something that can just be parachuted in,” said Elisabeth Kendall, an Oxford University scholar of Arabic and Islamic studies. “You can’t just read ‘Liberal Democracy 101,’ absorb it, write a constitution and hope that everything works out. Elections are just the start.”

Arab intellectuals often point out that it took decades for France to transition to democracy after its revolution. Parts of Eastern Europe and Africa saw similar ups and downs in leaving dictatorships behind.

Opinion polls show that emphatic majorities across the Arab world still support democracy. But nearly half of respondents say their own countries are not ready for it. Tunisians, in particular, have grown to associate it with economic deterioration and dysfunction.

Their experience may have left Tunisians still believing in democracy in the abstract, but wanting for now what one Tunisian constitutional law professor, Adnan Limam, approvingly called a “short-term dictatorship.”

Still, Ms. Kendall cautioned that it is too soon to declare the revolutions dead.

In Tunisia, rejection of the system that evolved over the last decade does not necessarily imply embrace of one-man rule. As Mr. Saied has arrested more opponents and taken more control, last month suspending much of the Constitution and seizing sole authority to make laws, more Tunisians — especially secular, affluent ones — have grown uneasy.

“Someone had to do something, but now it’s getting off-track,” said Azza Bel Jaafar, 67, a pharmacist in the upscale Tunis suburb of La Marsa. She said she had initially supported Mr. Saied’s actions, partly out of fear of Ennahda, the Islamist party that dominates Parliament and that many Tunisians blame for the country’s ills.

“I hope there’ll be no more Islamism,” she said, “but I’m not for a dictatorship either.”

Some pro-democracy Tunisians are counting on the idea that the younger generation will not easily surrender the freedoms they have grown up with.

“We haven’t invested in a democratic culture for 10 years for nothing,” said Jahouar Ben M’barek, a former friend and colleague of Mr. Saied’s who is now helping organize anti-Saied protests. “One day, they’ll see it’s actually their freedom at risk, and they’ll change their minds.”

Others say there is still time to save Tunisia’s democracy.

Despite Mr. Saied’s increasingly authoritarian actions, he has not moved systematically to crack down on opposition protests, and recently told the French president, Emmanuel Macron, that he would engage in dialogue to resolve the crisis.

“Let’s see if democracy is able to correct itself by itself,” said Youssef Cherif, a Tunis-based political analyst, “and not by the gun.”

Mr. Bousselmi, the gay rights activist, is torn, wondering whether gay rights can progress under one-man rule.

“I don’t know. Will I accept forgetting about my activism for the sake of the economy?” Mr. Bousselmi said. “I really want things to start changing in the country, but we’ll have to pay a very heavy price.”

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U.S. Crops Wither Under Scorching Heat

Drought is blistering key U.S. cash crops, further elevating prices for staples including corn and wheat.

The punishing dynamics of a torrid summer were evident this month on the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, an annual event in which farmers visit key growing areas across the grain belt to gather data on the coming harvest. Driving along state Route 14 outside of Verdigre, Neb., Randy Wiese turned to see a farmer harvesting hay. The piles were small.

“That farmer is sick to his stomach,” said Mr. Wiese, who farms 800 acres of soybeans and corn in Lake Park, Iowa.

He isn’t alone. Farm incomes have been hit hard over the past two years, first when Covid-19 shutdowns hammered prices and afterward when hot, dry weather reduced output, limiting farmers’ capacity to cash in on rising demand and higher prices.

Extreme heat is baking most of the U.S. North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa and Nebraska all contain areas of extreme drought, according to data from the U.S. Drought Monitor. North Dakota and Minnesota, in particular, are experiencing near-record lows in soil moisture, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

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