- 6 hospitalized after Newark-bound United Airlines flight diverts to NY airport due to ‘high winds’: officials New York Post
- Dozens of fliers fall ill after strong winds force United flight to divert from Newark NBC New York
- United Flight 85 from Tel Aviv to Newark diverted to Stewart International Airport in Orange County; injuries reported WABC-TV
- New Windsor EMS: Flight diverted to Stewart National Airport due to high winds; 7 transported to hospital News 12 New Jersey
- ‘Like Six Flags’: Israel-New York flight forced to divert, passengers hospitalized The Jerusalem Post
Tag Archives: Winds
Houston storm: 100-foot tree falls on renovated Humble home as winds possibly reached 97 miles per hour, a Harris County record – KTRK-TV
- Houston storm: 100-foot tree falls on renovated Humble home as winds possibly reached 97 miles per hour, a Harris County record KTRK-TV
- Thousands of Entergy customers remain without power after thunderstorms rumble across Southeast Texas KFDM-TV News
- Severe Houston weather: Thousands of CenterPoint Energy customers still without power after severe storms pushed through KTRK-TV
- PHOTOS: Strong storms topple trees, cause damage in The Woodlands, north Harris County KPRC Click2Houston
- Entergy Texas storm update – 6/22/23, 10 a.m. Entergy Newsroom
Late-Winter Storm Has Los Angeles Bracing For Yet More Rain, 40 MPH Winds And Potential Flooding – Deadline
- Late-Winter Storm Has Los Angeles Bracing For Yet More Rain, 40 MPH Winds And Potential Flooding Deadline
- Another atmospheric river will thrash storm-ravaged California, threatening more flooding and hurricane-force wind gusts CNN
- Atmospheric Rivers Helping Counter California’s Drought With Historic Rainfall, Snow FOX Weather
- Another storm takes aim at rain-soaked Southern California; winds expected to topple trees KTLA Los Angeles
- California Water Reservoir Update: Another atmospheric river headed toward California ABC10
- View Full Coverage on Google News
Heavy rain and winds along West Coast leave thousands without power, with more storms expected
CNN
—
A strong storm system bringing heavy rain, mountain snow and hurricane-force wind gusts to much of the drought-parched western United States has left more than 115,000 customers without power as the region braces for more wet, blustery weather in coming days.
All 11 Western states are under winter weather alerts Wednesday, with about half a million people along the higher elevations of the Rockies under high wind alerts as gusts could reach Category 1 hurricane strength. Already, electricity has been knocked out in parts of Oregon, Washington and California, according to PowerOutage.us.
The region is being inundated by an atmospheric river – a long, narrow region in the atmosphere that can carry moisture thousands of miles – as much of the eastern US recovers from a deadly winter storm that left wide swaths of the country under dangerously cold temperatures.
In the West, an initial round of lashing rain, wind and snow has moved inland and is set Wednesday to engulf inter-mountain areas. While coastal states may experience a brief lull on Wednesday, more rounds of rain and snow are predicted to sweep onshore at the end of the week.
Avalanche alerts have been issued for parts of Idaho, Colorado, Montana and California due to strong winds combined with heavy snowfall.
Winds on Tuesday whipped above 100 mph in some cities, reaching Category 2 hurricane levels. A gust of 107 mph was reported in Mount Hood, Oregon, and a 104-mph gust was recorded in North Bonneville, Washington. Wind speeds between 80 and 90 mph were reported Tuesday in several cities, including a gust of 90 mph in Walker, California.
“This unsettled weather pattern is expected to linger into the upcoming weekend as well,” the National Weather Center said.
Several more rounds of moisture will inundate the West this week, bringing temporary relief to a region suffering under prolonged drought conditions.
California’s snowpack could benefit from the storms. The critical source of water that has suffered under severe drought was running more than 150% of normal levels late last week, according to the California Department of Water Resources.
Now, widespread rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected across the region through Sunday, with isolated areas receiving up to 6 inches. Northern California could see rainfall up to 7 inches, with isolated higher amounts.
The first wave is impacting parts of Southern California and the Four Corners region that includes parts of Colorado, Utah, Arizona and New Mexico. Low elevation rainfall and high elevation snowfall will move out of California by late Wednesday morning and remain in the Four Corners area until Thursday.
The avalanche alerts are in effect as lower elevations across the West could see five-day snowfall totals of 2 to 8 inches, with some areas getting as much as a foot. More mountainous high elevations are forecast to receive 1 to 3 feet of snowfall, with isolated areas getting over 3 feet.
A powerful winter storm claims at least 13 lives across the US as temperatures plunge, winds howl and power lines fall
CNN
—
Hundreds of thousands of Americans are waking up in the dark to unlit trees on Christmas Eve, after destructive winds and heavy snow from a winter storm tore down power lines and endangered drivers across the country, killing at least 13 people in its path.
As bone-chilling temperatures continue to grip the US this holiday weekend, the unrelenting storm is pummeling the Midwest and parts of the East with heavy snow, blizzard conditions and even flooding along the Northeast coast. No letup is in sight until the end of Christmas Day.
Related: Follow live updates
At least 13 people have died since Wednesday across four states, a result of how dangerous and life-threatening conditions have been this week over a large swath of the country.
Three people have died in weather-related car crashes in Kansas, the Kansas Highway Patrol told CNN on Friday.
In Kansas City, Missouri, one person died after their vehicle slid off an icy road and into a frozen creek, first responders in Kansas City Police Department said.
Four people died in car crashes in Ohio, where others also were injured, Gov. Mike DeWine said.
The Tennessee Department of Health on Friday confirmed one, storm-related fatality.
Wisconsin State Patrol on Thursday reported one fatal crash due to winter weather.
Kentucky reported three deaths caused by the storm: Two in car crashes and another was a person who was unhoused in Louisville, Gov. Andy Beshear said. The man’s body was found outside with no obvious signs of trauma – an autopsy is required to determine the cause of death, police said.
For days, forecasters and officials have been sounding the alarm on the grim conditions the storm promised to bring, while imploring drivers to stay off the icy, snow-covered roads and other travelers to alter holiday plans for optimal safety.
“Remember your loved ones care more about having you alive and that next Christmas than whether you can make this one,” Beshear told CNN Friday.
“People need to stay off the roads. … Being together is more important than ever, but staying safe is even more important than that,” Beshear added.
The ominous warning comes as the storm continues to bear down with blizzard conditions from the Great Lakes and interior Northeast, bringing the double threat of heavy snow and speedy winds.
Hundreds of drivers across multiple states, including New York, South Dakota and Minnesota, were stranded this week and needed rescuing. Some states have closed major highways to deter drivers from getting behind the wheel. Plus, more than 5,000 flights were canceled Friday, and more than 10,000 were delayed.
To make matters worse, even if snowfall stops or slows, whiteout conditions are likely because winds are forecast to near or surpass 60 mph, resulting in damage and more power outages.
“If you do lose power, it is going to be dangerously cold,” said Jackie Bray, the commissioner of New York’s Homeland Security and Emergency Services, adding people should seek warming shelters provided by some counties. “Please don’t assume that you can weather this cold overnight without heat. You may not be able to.”
So far, hundreds of thousands of homes and businesses have no electricity, according to PowerOutage.US, which means millions of residents likely do not have proper heating or hot water as extremely cold temperatures persist Saturday.
New Hampshire, New York and Virginia each have more than 50,000 outages as of early Saturday, while more than 240,000 outages are reported in Maine, the website shows.
In pictures: Winter storm impacts the US
Here’s what else you can expect this Christmas Eve:
• The cold is coming for many: More than 175 million people are under wind chill alerts from across much of the central and eastern US. “The life-threatening Cold Temperatures and Dangerous wind chills will create a potentially life-threatening hazard for travelers that become stranded,” the National Weather Service said.
• Record temps in the South: Atlanta and Tallahassee, Florida, are forecast to have their coldest high temperature ever recorded on December 24, according to the weather service.
• Brutal cold elsewhere: Philadelphia and Pittsburgh will also see their coldest day Christmas Eve ever on Saturday. Washington, DC, could see its second-coldest on Christmas Eve, the first being in 1989. New York is set to experience its coldest Christmas Eve since 1906. Chicago is expecting temperatures to rebound above zero but will still experience its coldest Christmas Eve since 1983.
• Flooding threats persist: Both coastal and inland flooding risks are in store for the Northeast from heavy rain falling onto a melting snowpack. Moderate to isolated major coastal flooding is possible due to strong onshore winds.
Solar storm could launch 1.8 million mph solar winds at Earth TOMORROW
A ‘canyon-like’ cavity in the sun’s atmosphere known as a coronal hole will launch a solar storm towards our planet tomorrow.
According to experts, solar wind – a continual stream of charged particles – could be emitted from the hole and head towards Earth at staggering speeds of up to 1.8 million miles per hour.
Worryingly, the solar storm could cause power grid fluctuations and orientation irregularities for spacecraft in the form of ‘increased drag’ on low-Earth orbiters.
The aurora borealis – also known as the Northern Lights – may also be visible in the UK’s north.
Coronal holes appear as dark spots in ultraviolet pictures of the sun. Pictured, the sun today with the solar hole near the equator
According to Space Weather Live, the hole was detected on Monday, November 28 and the resulting storm could reach Earth on December 1.
It said the transequatorial coronal hole – one going across the sun’s equator – was ‘detected in an Earth-facing position’.
Spaceweather.com has rated the solar storm ‘G1’ (on a scale of one to five), so it’s considered to be fairly minor, although it can still cause power grid fluctuations and problems for satellites.
‘The gaseous material is flowing from a canyon-like hole in the sun’s atmosphere,’ it says.
A solar storm, also known as a geomagnetic storm, is a disturbance on the Sun.
When a solar storm comes toward us, some of the energy and small particles can travel down the magnetic field lines at the north and south poles into Earth’s atmosphere.
There, the particles interact with gases in our atmosphere, resulting in beautiful displays of light in the sky, known as auroras.
Oxygen gives off green and red light, while nitrogen glows blue and purple.
In the Earth’s north, auroras are officially known as the aurora borealis or the Northern Lights, while in the south, the event is called aurora australis.
The UK’s Met Office has said there have been aroura concentrated around the north pole all through this week.
‘There remains a slight chance for visible aurora over the far north of Scotland where skies are clear,’ it says.
A Met Office spokesperson also told MailOnline that aurora from the storm will be viewable in the north of Scotland, weather permitting.
Solar wind is constant, so auroras are frequently visible in parts of Northern Europe such as Norway and Iceland.
But at some points in the sun’s 11-year cycle, more intense solar storms emit solar winds that bombard our planet, making the aurora brighter and more frequent – meaning people in the UK have better chance of seeing it.
Coronal holes are a typical feature on the sun, though they appear at different places and with more frequency at different times of the sun’s activity cycle.
These holes are regions of the corona where the magnetic field reaches out into space rather than looping back down onto the surface.
Particles moving along those magnetic fields can leave the sun rather than being trapped near the surface. Those trapped particles can heat up and glow.
In the parts of the corona where the particles leave the sun, the glow is much dimmer and the coronal hole looks dark in ultraviolet images.
The aurora – a natural light display in Earth’s sky – may also be visible in the UK’s north. Pictured, the Northern Lights, also called aurora borealis, as seen in the sky over Tromso, Norway November 2, 2022
Solar storms can also result from a coronal mass ejection (CME) – a massive expulsion of plasma from the sun’s corona (its outermost layer).
As well as CMEs, such solar events include solar flares – explosions on the Sun that happens when energy stored in ‘twisted’ magnetic fields is released.
NASA explains: ‘There are many kinds of eruptions on the sun. Solar flares and coronal mass ejections both involve gigantic explosions of energy, but are otherwise quite different.
‘The two phenomena do sometimes occur at the same time – indeed the strongest flares are almost always correlated with coronal mass ejections – but they emit different things, they look and travel differently, and they have different effects near planets.’
Particles from solar events can travel millions of miles, and some may eventually collide with the Earth.
According to Royal Museums Greenwich, most of the particles are deflected, but some become captured in the Earth’s magnetic field.
They’re accelerated down towards the north and south poles into the atmosphere, which is why an aurora is best seen nearer the magnetic poles.
‘These particles then slam into atoms and molecules in the Earth’s atmosphere and essentially heat them up,’ said Royal Observatory astronomer Tom Kerss.
‘We call this physical process “excitation”, but it’s very much like heating a gas and making it glow.’
Solar storms aren’t dangerous to humans on Earth’s surface, but they can cause interference with power grids and GPS signals.
In 1859, a massive geomagnetic super-storm known as the Carrington event sent powerful CMEs toward Earth, disrupting communications on the ground.
Aurora over Ingolfsfjall mountain near Selfoss on the south coast of Iceland, November 28, 2022
If such an event were to happen in today’s world, the effects would be catastrophic on our communications systems.
A 2021 study by a University of California Irvine scientist found the internet could be crippled for weeks in the wake of a severe solar storm, due to vulnerabilities in world’s massive network of submarine communications cables.
The electromagnetic fluctuations caused by intense solar storms cannot directly harm the fibre optic cables that make up the backbone of the internet.
However, they do have the potential to take out the signal boosters dotted along undersea cables that are necessary to maintain connections over large distances.
According to astrophysicists, the likelihood of solar storm capable of causing catastrophic disruption occurring in the next 10 years is between 1.6–12 per cent.
SOLAR STORMS PRESENT A CLEAR DANGER TO ASTRONAUTS AND CAN DAMAGE SATELLITES
Solar storms, or solar activity, can be divided into four main components that can have impacts on Earth:
- Solar flares: A large explosion in the sun’s atmosphere. These flares are made of photons that travel out directly from the flare site. Solar flares impact Earth only when they occur on the side of the sun facing Earth.
- Coronal Mass Ejections (CME’s): Large clouds of plasma and magnetic field that erupt from the sun. These clouds can erupt in any direction, and then continue on in that direction, plowing through solar wind. These clouds only cause impacts to Earth when they’re aimed at Earth.
- High-speed solar wind streams: These come from coronal holes on the sun, which form anywhere on the sun and usually only when they are closer to the solar equator do the winds impact Earth.
- Solar energetic particles: High-energy charged particles thought to be released primarily by shocks formed at the front of coronal mass ejections and solar flares. When a CME cloud plows through solar wind, solar energetic particles can be produced and because they are charged, they follow the magnetic field lines between the Sun and Earth. Only charged particles that follow magnetic field lines that intersect Earth will have an impact.
While these may seem dangerous, astronauts are not in immediate danger of these phenomena because of the relatively low orbit of manned missions.
However, they do have to be concerned about cumulative exposure during space walks.
This photo shows the sun’s coronal holes in an x-ray image. The outer solar atmosphere, the corona, is structured by strong magnetic fields, which when closed can cause the atmosphere to suddenly and violently release bubbles or tongues of gas and magnetic fields called coronal mass ejections
The damage caused by solar storms
Solar flares can damage satellites and have an enormous financial cost.
The charged particles can also threaten airlines by disturbing Earth’s magnetic field.
Very large flares can even create currents within electricity grids and knock out energy supplies.
When Coronal Mass Ejections strike Earth they cause geomagnetic storms and enhanced aurora.
They can disrupt radio waves, GPS coordinates and overload electrical systems.
A large influx of energy could flow into high voltage power grids and permanently damage transformers.
This could shut off businesses and homes around the world.
Source: NASA – Solar Storm and Space Weather
<!- - ad: https://mads.dailymail.co.uk/v8/de/sciencetech/none/article/other/mpu_factbox.html?id=mpu_factbox_3 - ->
Advertisement
Winter storm warning through 9 p.m. Tuesday; cold winds howl Wednesday
Updated 12:25 p.m.
Tuesday’s heaviest snow bands will be over the Twin Cities from about 2 p.m. to 3 p.m. Snow wraps up between 6 p.m. and 8 p.m. in the Twin Cities but will run through the night north and east.
Expect an additional 2 to 3 inches through Tuesday afternoon on top of the 3 to 4 inches many have seen already from Mankato through the Twin Cities into western Wisconsin.
A snowy Tuesday with poor travel conditions
The heaviest snow will fall through the midafternoon across south-central into east-central Minnesota through the Twin Cities and western Wisconsin.
Forecast precipitation 6 a.m. Tuesday through 9 p.m.
College of DuPage weather lab
The most intense snow bands are moving through early this afternoon as the best vertical velocities (upward motion or lift) occur over the region.
Forecast vertical velocity (upward motion, producing snow bursts) Tuesday
College of DuPage weather lab
We may not quite see the highest possible snowfall ratios since the best lift will happen below what meteorologists call the “dendritic growth layer.” This is the layer where optimal, large snowflakes develop (think of the kind with many arms).
Forecast profiles of the atmosphere show the best lift (circled) below the this layer (outlined in blue).
Before you keep reading, take a moment to donate to MPR News. Your financial support ensures that factual and trusted news and context remain accessible to all.
Computer model forecast sounding (vertical temperature, velocity, moisture profile) for midday Tuesday
College of DuPage weather lab
Still, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Storm Prediction Center does anticipate some places could see up to 1 inch per hour rates into midafternoon in east-central Minnesota and western Wisconsin (outlined in purple below).
Highest snowfall rates over the next several hours possible
NOAA Storm Prediction Center
As of noon, the Twin Cities has seen about 4 inches of snow with another 2 to 4 inches possible this afternoon.
There will be a large area of 3 to 6 inches in total across southern Minnesota with a narrower band of 6 to 8 inches that could fall within that, including through the Twin Cities.
Here’s the official National Weather Service forecast for the overall storm total:
Official National Weather Service forecast snow totals Tuesday
NOAA, via Pivotal Weather
There will, however, be quite a lot of variation due to differences in moisture content and the range of ratios of snow to water (ranging from 10:1 to 15:1 in some spots). Here are the two minimum and maximum modeled possibilities:
Minimum and maximum potential snowfall scenarios Tuesday based upon moisture content and snow to liquid ratios.
NOAA, via Pivotal Weather
The snow should end by 8 p.m. in the Twin Cities and taper off through the night in Wisconsin.
Temperatures will drop from around freezing in the morning into the 20s late in the day and winds will increase from just 5-10 mph to 15-20 mph by evening from the northwest.
Windy, colder Wednesday
Winds will howl Wednesday as colder air settles in across Minnesota. Sustained wind speeds of 15-25 mph and gusts of 30-40 mph will whip around snow in open areas.
Forecast wind gusts early Wednesday
College of DuPage weather lab
Wind chills will be subzero west and just above zero in eastern Minnesota.
Forecast wind chills midday Wednesday
NOAA, via Pivotal Weather
We do warm up already with highs near 40 for southern Minnesota again by Friday afternoon.
Nicole makes landfall in Florida as rare November hurricane bringing heavy rain and strong winds
Hurricane Nicole made landfall early Thursday along the east coast of Florida just south of Vero Beach, the National Hurricane Center said, before quickly losing some punch and being downgraded to a tropical storm as it moved over central Florida. But it was still hitting a large area of the storm-weary state with strong winds, dangerous storm surge and heavy rain, the center said.
What was a rare November hurricane had already led officials to shut down airports and theme parks and order evacuations that included former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club.
Authorities warned that Nicole’s storm surge could further erode many beaches hit by Hurricane Ian in September.
And the number of power outages kept growing: Some 363,000 homes and businesses in Florida had no electricity, according to PowerOutage.us.
Nicole had maximum sustained winds of 50 mph Thursday morning with its center about 30 miles northeast of Tampa and about 60 miles west-southwest of Orlando, according to the hurricane center. It was moving west-northwest at 16 mph.
Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Tropical storm force winds from the sprawling storm extended as far as 345 miles from the center in some directions.
Nicole was expected to move west toward the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, shift north and then move across the Florida Panhandle and parts of Georgia on Thursday night, the hurricane center said. The storm was expected to move through the southeastern U.S. on Friday.
Mike’s Weather Page tweeted videos of many dramatic scenes, including these:
Nicole became a hurricane Wednesday evening as it slammed into Grand Bahama Island after making landfall just hours earlier on Great Abaco island as a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph. It’s the first storm to hit the Bahamas since Hurricane Dorian, a Category 5 storm that devastated the archipelago in 2019.
For storm-weary Floridians, it’s only the third November hurricane to hit their shores since recordkeeping began in 1853. The previous ones were the 1935 Yankee Hurricane and Hurricane Kate in 1985.
Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s club and home, was in one of the evacuation zones, about a quarter-mile inland from the ocean. The main buildings sit on a small rise about 15 feet above sea level, and the property has survived numerous stronger hurricanes since it was built nearly a century ago. The resort’s security office hung up Wednesday when an Associated Press reporter asked whether the club was being evacuated. There was no sign of evacuation by Wednesday afternoon.
There’s no penalty for ignoring an evacuation order, but rescue crews won’t respond if it puts their members at risk.
Officials in Daytona Beach Shores deemed unsafe at least a half dozen, multi-story, coastal residential buildings already damaged by Hurricane Ian and now threatened by Nicole. At some locations, authorities went door-to-door telling people to grab their possessions and leave.
Disney World and Universal Orlando Resort shut down Wednesday but said they intend to reopen Thursday, according to the Orlando Sentinel.
Palm Beach International Airport closed Wednesday morning and Daytona Beach International Airport said it would suspend operations. Orlando International Airport, the seventh busiest in the U.S., also closed. Farther south, officials said Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport and Miami International Airport experienced some flight delays and cancellations but both planned to remain open.
At a news conference in Tallahassee, Gov. Ron DeSantis said winds were the biggest concern and significant power outages could occur, but that 16,000 linemen were on standby to restore power as well as 600 guardsmen and seven search and rescue teams.
Nicole “will affect huge parts of the state of Florida all day,” DeSantis said.
Almost two dozen school districts were closing schools for the storm and 15 shelters were open along Florida’s east coast, the governor said.
Forty-five of Florida’s 67 counties were under an emergency declaration.
Warnings and watches were issued for many parts of Florida, including the southwestern Gulf coastline that was devastated by Hurricane Ian, which struck as a Category 4 storm Sept. 28. The storm destroyed homes and damaged crops, including orange groves, across the state – damage many are still dealing with.
Daniel Brown, a senior hurricane specialist at the Miami-based hurricane center, said the storm would affect a large swath of Florida.
“Because the system is so large, really almost the entire east coast of Florida except the extreme southeastern part and the Keys is going to receive tropical storm force winds,” he said.
Early Wednesday, President Biden declared an emergency in Florida and ordered federal assistance to supplement state, tribal and local response efforts to the approaching storm. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is still responding to people who need help in Hurricane Ian’s wake.
Ian brought storm surge of up to 13 feet in late September, causing widespread destruction.
NASA leaves its Artemis I rocket exposed to winds above design limits
Enlarge / The upper part of the Space Launch System rocket and the Orion spacecraft likely faced the strongest wind gusts on Thursday morning.
Trevor Mahlmann
Early on Thursday morning, Hurricane Nicole made landfall near Vero Beach on Florida’s eastern coast. Because Nicole had a very large eye, nearly 60 miles in diameter, its strongest winds were located well to the north of this landfalling position.
As a result of this, Kennedy Space Center took some of the most intense wind gusts from Nicole late on Wednesday night and Thursday morning. While such winds from a Category 1 hurricane are unlikely to damage facilities, they are of concern because the space agency left its Artemis I mission—consisting of the Space Launch System rocket and Orion spacecraft—exposed on a pad at Launch Complex-39B. The pad is a stone’s throw from the Atlantic Ocean.
How intense were the winds? The National Weather Service hosts data from NASA sensors attached to this launch pad’s three lighting towers on a public website. It can be a little difficult to interpret the readings because there are sensors at altitudes varying from 132 feet to 457 feet. Most of the publicly available data appears to come from an altitude of about 230 feet, however, which would represent the area of the Space Launch System rocket where the core stage is attached to the upper stage. The entire stack reaches a height of about 370 feet above the ground.
Prior to Nicole’s arrival, NASA said its SLS rocket was designed to withstand wind gusts of 74.4 knots. Moreover, the agency stated on Tuesday in a blog post, “Current forecasts predict the greatest risks at the pad are high winds that are not expected to exceed the SLS design.”
From the publicly available data, however, it appears that the rocket was exposed to wind gusts near, at, or above 74.4 knots for several hours on Thursday morning. A peak gust of 87 knots was reported on the National Weather Service site, with multiple gusts above NASA’s design levels. It is possible that the 74.4-knot design limit has some margin built into it.
The space agency is incorrect to suggest that forecasters did not predict such winds from Nicole. The reality is that wind speed probability forecasts from the National Hurricane Center allowed for the possibility of winds that high, even if they were not the most likely scenario. On Tuesday, shortly before NASA issued its blog post update downplaying the risks to Artemis I from Nicole, the National Hurricane Center predicted a 15 percent chance of hurricane-force winds near Kennedy Space Center, which would have produced gusts similar to those measured Thursday morning at the launch site.
What’s next
So what happens now? Nominally, the space agency is still targeting a launch attempt at 1:04 am ET (06:04 UTC) on Wednesday, November 16. Theoretically that remains possible, but in reality it seems unlikely. When it is safe for NASA employees and contractors to return to Kennedy Space Center, perhaps later today or Friday, they will begin inspections of the vehicle.
According to Phil Metzger, an engineer who worked on the space shuttle program for NASA, the most likely concern will be the structural integrity of the rocket after being exposed to prolonged periods of high winds. A rocket is designed to go upward, so although its structure can endure intense pressure and winds in a vertical direction, it is not designed to withstand similar winds in the horizontal direction.
In a series of tweets, Metzger predicted that it will be a busy couple of weeks for structural engineers to assess the risks of damage from the storm and potentially seek waivers to fly the vehicle after its exposure to these loads. This will be a difficult task. There is no ability to X-ray the structures inside the rocket, so this process will involve running, and re-running, structural calculations. At some point the program’s leadership will have to decide whether the risk—which includes the potential for the rocket to break apart during launch—is too high to fly without further inspections or remedial work.
So why did NASA not just roll back for cover? The timing here is key. It takes about three days to prepare and roll the rocket back from the launch pad to the protective Vehicle Assembly Building at Kennedy Space Center. NASA, therefore, probably would have had to make the rollback decision Sunday. At the time, the most likely outcome, predicted by forecasters, was that the rocket would have been exposed to 40-knot winds.
Space agency officials have not been made publicly available to talk about their decision-making process, but NASA’s blog post on Tuesday suggests that a final call was indeed made on Sunday night: “Based on expected weather conditions and options to roll back ahead of the storm, the agency determined Sunday evening the safest option for the launch hardware was to keep the Space Launch System rocket and Orion spacecraft secured at the pad.”
From the space agency’s vantage point on Sunday, there was clearly a non-zero risk of damaging winds to the rocket, but it was low, probably less than 5 percent. Rolling the rocket back at the time would have taken away several launch attempts, and perhaps even wiped out the entire November launch period, for the long-awaited Artemis I mission. If the launch was delayed into December, that would have opened up a host of other problems for the agency, perhaps most critically that its certification of the solid rocket booster lifetime—these massive powder-based boosters have been stacked for nearly two years—was about to expire.
So NASA had a lot of good reasons to want to get the Artemis I mission off the launch pad this month. Accordingly, they gambled a bit with the weather. They may have lost.
Go to discussion…
NASA’s Artemis I rocket could face damaging winds as storm approaches
Sign up for CNN’s Wonder Theory science newsletter. Explore the universe with news on fascinating discoveries, scientific advancements and more.
CNN
—
The Artemis I mission, which is expected to send an uncrewed spacecraft on a test mission around the moon, is delayed yet again, as NASA’s Space Launch System faces Tropical Storm Nicole, which is now expected to strengthen into a hurricane before it slams into Florida’s East Coast.
The space agency had been targeting November 14 for the third launch attempt but is now looking at November 16, “pending safe conditions for employees to return to work, as well as inspections after the storm has passed,” NASA said in a statement Tuesday evening. November 16 would offer a two-hour launch window that opens at 1:04 a.m. ET.
The rocket, often referred to as SLS, is sitting on its launchpad at Kennedy Space Center, which lies just to the north of where the storm’s center is expected to make landfall, CNN meteorologist Brandon Miller noted. That will mean the area can expect some of the strongest winds the system will bring.
If it is a 75-mile-per-hour (120-kph) Category 1 hurricane, as it’s predicted to be, gusts could range between 80 and 90 miles per hour (130 to 145 kph), according to Miller. That could mean the rocket will get battered by winds higher than the predetermined limits of what the rocket can withstand. Officials have said that SLS is designed to withstand gusts of up to 85 miles per hour (137 kph).
“Further, the National Weather Service in Melbourne, Florida, has forecasted max wind gusts occurring early Thursday morning of 86 miles per hour,” Miller added. “So yes, this is absolutely possible that wind gusts exceed that threshold.”
The National Hurricane Center’s latest report also gives a 15% chance that Cocoa Beach, which lies about 20 miles (32 kilometers) south of the launch site, will endure sustained hurricane-force winds.
Officials at NASA, however, said in a statement “forecasts predict the greatest risks at the pad are high winds that are not expected to exceed the SLS design.”
“The rocket is designed to withstand heavy rains at the launch pad and the spacecraft hatches have been secured to prevent water intrusion,” the statement continues.
Read more: The numbers that make the Artemis I mission a monumental feat
The space agency decided to roll the SLS rocket out to its launchpad last week, as the storm was still an unnamed system brewing off the East Coast. At the time, officials had been expecting this storm to bring in sustained winds of around 25 knots (29 miles per hour) with gusts of up to 40 knots (46 miles per hour), which was deemed to be well within the predetermined limits of what the rocket can withstand, according to comments from Mark Burger, a launch weather officer with the US Space Force’s 45th Weather Squadron, at a NASA news conference on November 3.
“The National Hurricane Center just has a 30% chance of it becoming a named storm,” Burger said last Thursday. “However, that being said, the models are very consistent on developing some sort of a low pressure.”
But the storm did grow into a named system on Monday, three days after the rocket was rolled out to the launchpad.
The storm’s strength is unusual, as Nicole is expected to be the first hurricane to strike the United States in November in nearly 40 years.
To prepare for the storm, NASA said its teams have powered down the Orion spacecraft, which sits atop the SLS rocket, as well as the rocket’s side boosters and other components.
“Engineers have also installed a hard cover over the launch abort system window, retracted and secured the crew access arm on the mobile launcher and configured the settings for the environmental control system on the spacecraft and rocket elements,” according to the statement. “Teams also are securing nearby hardware and performing walkdowns for potential debris in the area.”
Kennedy Space Center announced on its Twitter feed Tuesday that it is “in a HURICON III status and continues to prep for the upcoming storm taking prudent precautions across all of our programs, activities, and workforce in advance of the storm.”
The HURICON III preparations include “securing facilities, property and equipment” as well as deploying a rideout team, which is a staff that will be on site to assess any damages.
The SLS rocket had been stowed away for weeks after issues with fuel leaks thwarted the first two launch attempts and then Hurricane Ian rolled through Florida, forcing the rocket to vacate the launchpad in September.
Officials at NASA returned the rocket to the launchpad last week with the goal of working toward a third launch attempt on November 14. It’s not clear how or if the storm could impact those plans.
The overall goal of NASA’s Artemis program is to return humans to the moon for the first time in half a century. And the Artemis I mission — expected to be the first of many — will lay the groundwork, testing the rocket and spacecraft and all their subsystems to ensure they are safe enough for astronauts to fly to the moon and back.