Tag Archives: warning

Dow Jones Futures: Coronavirus Vaccinations Hit Milestone; Market Rally Warning Signs

Dow Jones futures will open Sunday evening, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. The House gave final approval Friday night to a budget resolution that paves the way for President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus plan. Coronavirus vaccinations have picked up the pace, crossing another milestone Saturday.




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Apple stock, Walt Disney (DIS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Nike (NKE) and Caterpillar (CAT) are five Dow Jones giants in or near buy points.

The stock market rally is looking strong, buoyed by generally strong earnings and Biden stimulus progress. The indexes are at record highs with several new breakouts. Growth stocks overall had powerful week, with software, IPOs, cyclicals, China names and more big winners. Several chip stocks ran into trouble, but the sector did rise.

But the market is getting increasingly extended, among other warning signs.


3 Enterprise Software Leaders Near Buy Points Ahead Of Earnings


Disney earnings are on tap Thursday night, but Apple, JPMorgan and Caterpillar stock have already reported while Nike isn’t due for more than a month.

Apple stock is on IBD Leaderboard. CAT stock is on SwingTrader.

Congress Fast Tracks Biden Stimulus

The House voted Friday night to provide formal, final approval to a budget resolution fast tracks the $1.9 trillion Biden stimulus proposal. The House voted 219-209 on party lines after the Senate approved the resolution early Friday, with Vice President Kamala Harris casting the tiebreaker vote. The House had already approved the budget resolution on Wednesday, but had to OK the Senate’s largely symbolic changes.

The budget resolution means a Biden stimulus plan can pass with a bare majority, instead of needing 60 Senate votes to avoid a filibuster. Democratic lawmakers will start crafting the actual stimulus legislation soon, with final passage possible by late February.

Because of Democrats’ narrow majorities, the Biden stimulus plan could be slimmed down even without any Republican votes. Negotiating with moderate Democrats could also win over some centrist GOP senators.

President Biden cited Friday’s weak jobs report as a reason to swiftly pass his stimulus plan. That thinking is one reason why the stock market rally had a solid session. He’s already signaled he’s willing to lower the income limits on new direct stimulus check, but he’s insisting that each check be $1,400.

Biden did concede Friday that a $15 minimum wage is unlikely to be included in the stimulus. A budget reconciliation bill is only supposed to include tax and spending items. It’s also supposed to be deficit neutral over 10 years.

Dow Jones Futures Today

Dow Jones futures will open at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures.

Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.


Join IBD experts as they analyze actionable stocks in the stock market rally on IBD Live.


Coronavirus News

Coronavirus cases worldwide reached 106.32 million. Covid-19 deaths topped 2.31 million.

Coronavirus cases in the U.S. have hit 27.51 million, with deaths above 473,000.

Roughly 2.1 million Americans got a coronavirus vaccine shot on Saturday, topping two million for the first time. That cleared Friday’s then-record mark of 1.8 million. Just over 31 million have received at least one shot of the Pfizer (PFE) or Moderna (MRNA) vaccines, with 8.8 million getting both shots.

More coronavirus vaccines are on the way, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Novavax (NVAX) requesting FDA emergency approval late last week and AstraZeneca (AZN) likely to follow in the coming weeks. The J&J vaccine is a one-shot treatment.

Meanwhile, new Covid cases and hospitalizations continue to fall sharply, while deaths appear to have peaked.

Stock Market Rally

The stock market rally raced back from the prior week’s sell-off back to all-time highs for the S&P 500, Nasdaq and small-cap Russell 2000. The Dow Jones came within a whisker of record levels. Biden stimulus progress and generally positive earnings reports fueled the market rally rebound.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 3.9% in last week’s stock market trading. The S&P 500 index rose 4.65%, the Nasdaq composite 6% and the Russell 2000 7.8%.

Among the best ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) jumped 8.1% last week, while the Innovator IBD Breakout Opportunities ETF (BOUT) leapt 9%.  The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) rallied 8.1%. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) climbed 3.8%, but stalled after Monday.

Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with the market direction and leading stocks and sectors.


Breakout Watch: Stock With 539% Gain Enters New Buy Zone


Dow Jones Stocks Near Buy Points

While growth investors tend to focus on tech and other traditional growth areas, why look at five Dow Jones stocks? Apple is still a growth name, if mature. Disney stock has been rallying on Disney+ and other streaming hopes. Caterpillar and JPMorgan are economic cyclical plays, along with Disney and Nike, that are rallying with hopes for a post-pandemic economic recovery.

More broadly, these stocks, with their heft and different sectors, can offer diversity to a portfolio of highflying IPOs and other volatile growth names.


IBD Stock Of The Day: Is This Covid-19 Play Ready For Another Big Run?


Apple Stock

Apple stock rebounded 3.6% last week to 136.76, rebounding from its 10-week line and finding support at its 21-day exponential moving average. Investors could buy AAPL stock now, but it’s close to reclaiming the official 138.89 buy point from a cup-with-handle base. Also, 145.19 could be an alternate entry from a short consolidation above and below the buy point. Finally, investors could use a short trend line from that mini-consolidation, though that Apple stock entry would likely be close to 138.89.

Apple Car buzz heated up last night, with reports that the tech giant is close to a manufacturing deal with Hyundai-Kia on an Apple-branded electric car. But a late Friday report said those talks had stalled, with Apple still considering other automakers.

Nike Stock

Nike stock jumped 8.6% to 145.11, rebounding above the 50-day and 10-week line. Actionable right now, shares of the athletic apparel and shoe giant are close to a 148.05 flat-base buy point.

Caterpillar Stock

CAT stock jumped 5.6% to 193, rebounding from its 50-day line and a prior short consolidation. On Tuesday, Caterpillar stock cleared its 21-day line and a short trend line, offering a buying opportunity that’s still viable. The construction and mining equipment giant has been consolidating for a few weeks that could eventually be a flat base. There is an existing 200.27 three-weeks-tight entry.

JPMorgan Stock

JPMorgan stock leapt 7.2% to 137.98 last week, still within reach of its 10-week line. JPM stock is nearing 142.85 buy point from a cup-with-handle base going back to January 2020.

The 10-year Treasury yield is at 2020 highs, while short-term rates are still rock bottom. That widening yield spread is good news for banks’ core business of borrowing short and lending long.

Disney Stock

Disney stock rallied 7.7% last week to 181.15, rebounding from its 10-week line. DIS stock is still buyable from the 10-week line, but is close to a 183.50 flat-base buy point, according to MarketSmith analysis.

Also, buying ahead of Disney earnings on Thursday is risky.

In Disney earnings, Disney+ subscription growth and other streaming news may continue to be the catalyst for DIS stock. On other fronts, such as theme parks and movie studios, that will require the economy to open up as coronavirus vaccinations hit a critical mass.

Stock Market Rally Analysis

Last week’s rebound was surprising. After the prior week’s sharp losses, more selling, sideways action or a modest bounce seemed more likely. But the stock market rally had other ideas.

Unfortunately, by running back go and beyond the old highs, the Nasdaq is once again looking extended. It’s 7.4% above its 50-day moving average. When that’s 6% or higher, the odds of a pullback are relatively high. Now, the Nasdaq certainly can become more extended. It closed 8.2% above its 50-day line on Jan. 25, just before that week’s losses. In late August, the Nasdaq became increasingly extended, finally closing 11.6% over the 50-day on Sept. 2.

But the more extended the Nasdaq gets above its 50-day line, the greater the risk that the ultimate pullback will be substantial. After Sept. 2, the Nasdaq tumbled in the next three sessions closing below its 50-day line. The composite continued to slide in the September correction.

Other warning signs are out there.

While the stock market rally’s broad-based gains are a positive, there can be too much of a good thing. On Friday, 70% of all stocks are above their 50-day and 200-day lines. That’s unusually high.

Meanwhile, investor leverage is high, with fast-rising margin debt turbocharged by skyrocketing call options.


Big Picture: Market Hits New Highs; Why Investors Cannot Relax Now


What Investors Should Do

Despite those warning signals, the bottom line is that the stock market rally is still healthy, with the major indexes and leading stocks in great shape.

So you don’t need to be defensive, but be cautious about new purchases.

New buys just before a pullback often will run into trouble, forcing investors to quickly cut losses.

At the beginning of a stock market rally, investors might rush to build exposure, much like an old-style Black Friday, with a well-researched shopping list in hand. In the current environment, you need to be more selective, going through the aisles for some limited buys, if any. In fact, you might want to “return” some of your stocks to the market, taking partial profits or cutting laggards or losers.

Are you comfortable with your current level of exposure, and which stocks you’re holding?

Have a game plan for your stocks, so you’ll know what to do in various circumstances. Continue to go through screens, building your watch lists. Investors should always be preparing for new buys, and the process also helps you see which market groups and segments are leading.

Please follow Ed Carson on Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.

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NYC Weather: Winter Storm Warning for parts of the Tri-State area

NEW YORK (WABC) — A Winter Storm Warning for a fast-moving system that could dump several inches of fresh snow on Sunday.

The good news is the storm is not expected to reach the same magnitude as the 2-3 feet of snow seen earlier this week.

ALERT: Winter Storm Warning New York City, Long Island, and parts of the Tri-State area

Two separate storms – one coming from the west and one developing to the south – will not merge to produce a powerhouse storm. Instead, the one to the west will weaken on Saturday night, while the other begins moving off the east coast.

Unlike the previous northeast snowstorm, this storm is a quick mover and snowfall amounts should be relatively lighter.

During the day on Sunday, snow could be heavy at times across the northeast with snowfall rates up to 2 inches per hour. This will cause low visibility and dangerous road conditions.

The storm will be almost out of the northeast by Sunday evening, with only some scattered snow showers remaining.

Additionally, much of the ground is covered in snow, so at least on snow covered surfaces the snow will not have a problem accumulating.

A widespread 3 to 6 inches of snow is possible – just enough to cause some travel disruptions, but road crews should be able to keep up.

And keep those shovels handy next week. We may have another shot at snow or rain on Tuesday ushering in some bitterly cold Arctic air.

RELATED: “Rising Risk” docuseries explores how those rising sea levels will play out in the lower Manhattan of the late 21st century. Watch now on our CTV apps for Fire, Roku, Apple TV and Android TV
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For weather updates wherever you go, please download the AccuWeather app.

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Sia Tweets She Will Add Warning to Music Then Deletes Twitter

Photo: Presley Ann/Getty Images for the Los Angeles LGBT Center (Getty Images)

After months of defending her choice of casting the neurotypical actor Maddie Ziegler as an autistic character in the upcoming movie Music and beefing with critics online (including the very people her film is attempting to represent), Sia, it seems, has had a change of heart. Or, now that she’s nominated for an award, she’s in damage-control overdrive. You decide!

Per Variety, the singer/songwriter/first-time director announced that she has “been listening” and will include a warning at the start of the Golden-Globe nominated film that reads: “Music in no way condones or recommends the use of restraint on autistic people. There are autistic occupational therapists that specialize in sensory processing who can be consulted to explain safe ways to provide proprioceptive, deep-pressure feedback to help w meltdown safety.” Restraint and seclusion interventions are widely acknowledged as dangerous and abusive (in 2018, a 13-year-old autistic boy died after being restrained by a staff member in his high school).

“I plan to remove the restraint scenes from all future printings. I listened to the wrong people and that is my responsibility, my research was clearly not thorough enough, not wide enough,” tweeted Sia.

She also tweeted, “I’m sorry.” About an hour after this series of tweets, she deleted her Twitter. If a tree falls in a forest and there’s no one around to hear it, does it make a sound? If you tweet an apology and then delete your Twitter, is it an actual apology? Maybe not, but at least we have blogs to catalog receipts.



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NC weather: Winter Storm Warning issued for several counties as snow begins to fall

RALEIGH, N.C. (WTVD) — A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for several North Carolina counties as snow started to fall in the area overnight.

The warning is out for Granville, Halifax, Person, Vance and Warren counties until 8 a.m., according to the National Weather Service. The NWS is forecasting these counties could see up to three to four inches of snow accumulation. Many other counties in the area are under a Winter Storm Advisory.

In Roxboro, one of the units in our breaking news fleet already had a coating of snow around 2:30 a.m.

A car was stuck on the side of the road in Roxboro as well.

Get the latest weather updates sent straight to your phone by downloading the ABC11 mobile app

On Wednesday, the Winter Weather Advisory was issued for the northern half of our viewing area from midnight through 8 a.m. on Thursday. The advisory includes the Triangle counties along with areas north, bordering I-85 and I-95.

Accumulations now look to be 3 to 4 inches of snow along the Virginia border and 2 to 3 inches in the Triangle. Areas south of the Triangle should see less than an inch.

Most of the accumulation should be grassy surfaces, but since this will be occurring at night, there could be slick spots in the morning.

“This looks to be similar to our event last February which dropped 1 to 3 inches one evening, but did not accumulate on the roads much,” Chief Meteorologist Chris Hohmann said. “Should be a very wet snow, which will be pretty on the trees, etc. It’s not often we go from the 50s and sunshine to snow in less than 12 hours; should be interesting.”

WATCH: Director of Emergency Management Mike Sprayberry on preps for possible snow Thursday morning

Wednesday night’s rain has the North Carolinas Department of Transportation’s salt and sand trucks on standby due to the possibility that it would wash away. Crews are expected to report for duty between midnight and 4 a.m.

The NCDOT expects much of the winter precipitation to melt quickly, but the main concern is higher-elevation roads and bridges

The Sandhills region will see less accumulation, from flurries to a half-inch.

ABC!! Meteorologist Don “Big Weather” Schwenneker said precipitation will move out of our region between 5 to 8 a.m. beginning in the southwest part of the viewing area. Skies will clear out mid-morning with the sun returning. Temperatures will stay well below average in the 40s and wind chills will be in the 30s for most of the day with a stiff wind gust around 25 MPH.

Winter weather in a pandemic | What to expect this year

Typically, our snow events happen when cold air is already in place, and moisture moves into the area.

That’s what happened 21 years ago in one of the biggest snow events the Triangle has ever seen.

Here’s a look back at that snow and what forecasters learned from it:

Check out the latest weather radar

Winter weather in a pandemic | What to expect this year

Get weather on the ABC11 News app.

Check out the latest weather radar

Copyright © 2021 WTVD-TV. All Rights Reserved.



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Warning Signal: the messaging app’s new features are causing internal turmoil

On January 6th, WhatsApp users around the world began seeing a pop-up message notifying them of upcoming changes to the service’s privacy policy. The changes were designed to enable businesses to send and store messages to WhatsApp’s 2 billion-plus users, but they came with an ultimatum: agree by February 8th, or you can no longer use the app.

The resulting furor sparked a backlash that led Facebook-owned WhatsApp to delay the policy from taking effect until May. In the meantime, though, tens of millions of users began seeking alternatives to Facebook’s suite of products. Among the biggest beneficiaries has been Signal, the encrypted messaging app whose development is funded by a nonprofit organization. Last month, according to one research firm, the six-year-old app had about 20 million users worldwide. But in a 12-hour period the Sunday after WhatsApp’s privacy policy update began, Signal added another 2 million users, an employee familiar with the matter told me. Days of temporary outages followed.

The pace has hardly relented since. Signal leapt to No. 1 in the app stores of 70 countries, and it continues to rank near the top of most of them, including the United States. While the company won’t confirm the size of its user base, a second employee told me the app has now surpassed 40 million users globally. And while Signal still has a small fraction of the market for mobile messaging — Telegram, another upstart messenger, says it added 90 million active users in January alone — the rapid growth has been a cause for excitement inside the small distributed team that makes the app.

Adding millions of users has served as a vindication for a company that has sought to build a healthier internet by adopting different incentives than most Silicon Valley companies.

“We’re organized as a nonprofit because we feel like the way the internet currently works is insane,” CEO Moxie Marlinspike told me. “And a lot of that insanity, to us, is the result of bad business models that produce bad technology. And they have bad societal outcomes.” Signal’s mission, by contrast, is to promote privacy through end-to-end encryption, without any commercial motive.

But Signal’s rapid growth has also been a cause for concern. In the months leading up to and following the 2020 US presidential election, Signal employees raised questions about the development and addition of new features that they fear will lead the platform to be used in dangerous and even harmful ways. But those warnings have largely gone unheeded, they told me, as the company has pursued a goal to hit 100 million active users and generate enough donations to secure Signal’s long-term future.

Employees worry that, should Signal fail to build policies and enforcement mechanisms to identify and remove bad actors, the fallout could bring more negative attention to encryption technologies from regulators at a time when their existence is threatened around the world.

“The world needs products like Signal — but they also need Signal to be thoughtful,” said Gregg Bernstein, a former user researcher who left the organization this month over his concerns. “It’s not only that Signal doesn’t have these policies in place. But they’ve been resistant to even considering what a policy might look like.”

Interviews with current and former employees, plus leaked screenshots of internal deliberations, paint a portrait of a company that is justly proud of its role in promoting privacy while also willfully dismissing concerns over the potential misuses of its service. Their comments raise the question of whether a company conceived as a rebuke to data-hungry, ad-funded communication tools like Facebook and WhatsApp will really be so different after all.


Like a lot of problems, this one started with an imperative familiar to most businesses: growth.

Encrypted messaging has been a boon to activists, dissidents, journalists, and marginalized groups around the world. Not even Signal itself can see their messages — much less law enforcement or national security agencies. The app saw a surge in usage during last year’s protests for racial justice, even adding a tool to automatically blur faces in photos to help activists more safely share images of the demonstrations. This kind of growth, one that supported progressive causes, was exciting to Signal’s roughly 30-member team.

“That’s the kind of use case that we really want to support,” Marlinspike told me. “People who want more control over their data and how it’s used — and who want to exist outside the gaze of tech companies.”

On October 28th, Signal added group links, a feature that has become increasingly common to messaging apps. With a couple of taps, users could begin creating links that would allow anyone to join a chat in a group as large as 1,000 people. And because the app uses end-to-end encryption, Signal itself would have no record of the group’s title, its members, or the image the group chose as its avatar. At the same time, the links make it easy for activists to recruit large numbers of people onto Signal simultaneously, with just a few taps.

But as the US presidential election grew closer, some Signal employees began raising concerns that group links could be abused. On September 29th, during a debate, President Trump had told the far-right extremist group the Proud Boys to “stand back and stand by.” During an all-hands meeting, an employee asked Marlinspike how the company would respond if a member of the Proud Boys or another extremist organization posted a Signal group chat link publicly in an effort to recruit members and coordinate violence.

“The response was: if and when people start abusing Signal or doing things that we think are terrible, we’ll say something,” said Bernstein, who was in the meeting, conducted over video chat. “But until something is a reality, Moxie’s position is he’s not going to deal with it.”

Bernstein (disclosure: a former colleague of mine at Vox Media), added, “You could see a lot of jaws dropping. That’s not a strategy — that’s just hoping things don’t go bad.”

Marlinspike’s response, he told me in a conversation last week, was rooted in the idea that because Signal employees cannot see the content on their network, the app does not need a robust content policy. Like almost all apps, its terms of service state that the product cannot be used to violate the law. Beyond that, though, the company has sought to take a hands-off approach to moderation.

“We think a lot on the product side about what it is that we’re building, how it’s used, and the kind of behaviors that we’re trying to incentivize,” Marlinspike told me. “The overriding theme there is that we don’t want to be a media company. We’re not algorithmically amplifying content. We don’t have access to the content. And even within the app, there are not a lot of opportunities for amplification.”

At the same time, employees said, Signal is developing multiple tools simultaneously that could be ripe for abuse. For years, the company has faced complaints that its requirement that people use real phone numbers to create accounts raises privacy and security concerns. And so Signal has begun working on an alternative: letting people create unique usernames. But usernames (and display names, should the company add those, too) could enable people to impersonate others — a scenario the company has not developed a plan to address, despite completing much of the engineering work necessary for the project to launch.

Signal has also been actively exploring the addition of payments into the app. Internally, this has been presented as a way to help people in developing nations transfer funds more easily. But other messaging apps, including Facebook and China’s WeChat, have pursued payments as a growth strategy.

An effort from Facebook to develop a cryptocurrency, now known as Novi, has been repeatedly derailed by skeptical regulators.

Marlinspike serves on the board of MobileCoin, a cryptocurrency built on the Stellar blockchain designed to make payments simple and secure — and, potentially, impossible to trace. “The idea of MobileCoin is to build a system that hides everything from everyone,” Wired wrote of the project in 2017. “These components make MobileCoin more resistant to surveillance, whether it’s coming from a government or a criminal.”

People I spoke with told me they regard the company’s exploration of cryptocurrency as risky since it could invite more bad actors onto the platform and attract regulatory scrutiny from world leaders.

Marlinspike played down the potential of crypto payments in Signal, saying only that the company had done some “design explorations” around the idea. But significant engineering resources have been devoted to developing MobileCoin integrations in recent quarters, former employees said.

“If we did decide we wanted to put payments into Signal, we would try to think really carefully about how we did that,” Marlinspike said. “It’s hard to be totally hypothetical.”


Signal’s growth imperatives are driven in part by its unusual corporate structure. The app is funded by the Signal Foundation, which was created in 2018 with a $50 million loan from WhatsApp co-founder Brian Acton. Signal’s development is supported by that loan, which filings show has grown to more than $100 million, and by donations from its users.

Employees have been told that for Signal to become self-sustaining, it will need to reach 100 million users. At that level, executives expect that donations will cover its costs and support the development of additional products that the company has considered, such as email or file storage.

But messaging is a crowded field, with products from Apple, Facebook, Google, and, more recently, Telegram. Signal’s initial customer base of activists and journalists will only get it so far. And so despite its anti-corporate ethos, Signal has set about acquiring users like any other Silicon Valley app: by adding new features over time, starting with those that have proven successful in rivals.

Those efforts have been led by two people in particular: Marlinspike, a former head of product security at Twitter whose long career in hacking and cryptography was recently profiled in The New Yorker, and Acton, whose title as executive chairman of the Signal Foundation dramatically understates his involvement in the project’s day-to-day operations.

In 2014, Acton and co-founder Jan Koum sold WhatsApp to Facebook for $22 billion, making them both billionaires. Acton left the company in 2017, later telling Forbes that his departure was prompted by Facebook’s plans to introduce targeted advertising and commercial messaging into WhatsApp. “I sold my users’ privacy to a larger benefit,” Acton told Forbes. “I made a choice and a compromise. And I live with that every day.”

A few months later, at the height of the Cambridge Analytica data privacy scandal, Acton caused a stir when he tweeted: “It is time. #deletefacebook.”

Since then, he has increasingly devoted his time to building Signal. He participates in all-hands meetings and helps to set the overall direction of the company, employees said. He interviews engineers, screening them for their ideological commitment to encryption technology. He writes code and helps to solve engineering challenges.

While working at Facebook, Acton could be dismissive of the idea that technology companies should intervene to prevent all forms of abuse. “There is no morality attached to technology, it’s people that attach morality to technology,” Acton told Steven Levy for his book Facebook: The Inside Story. Acton continued:

“It’s not up to technologists to be the ones to render judgment. I don’t like being a nanny company. Insofar as people use a product in India or Myanmar or anywhere for hate crimes or terrorism or anything else, let’s stop looking at the technology and start asking questions about the people.”

Asked about those comments, Signal told me that Acton does not have any role in setting policy for the company.

In recent interviews, Acton has been magnanimous toward his former colleagues, telling TechCrunch that he expects most people will continue to use WhatsApp in addition to Signal. But it’s hard not to see in Acton’s recent work the outlines of a redemption narrative — a founder who regrets selling his old company deciding to try again, but with a twist. Or maybe it’s a revenge narrative: I detected more than a little disdain in Acton’s voice when he told TechCrunch, “I have no desire to do all the things that WhatsApp does.”

Marlinspike told me that Acton’s increasingly heavy involvement in day-to-day development was a necessity given a series of recent departures at Signal, suggesting the WhatsApp co-founder might pull back once it was more fully staffed.

“Recently this has been an all-hands-on-deck kind of thing,” Marlinspike said. “He’s been great jumping in and helping where we need help, and helping us scale.”

Still, Acton’s growing involvement could help explain the company’s general reticence toward implementing content policies. WhatsApp was not a “nanny company,” and it appears that neither will be Signal.

Whatever the case, Acton is clearly proud of Signal’s recent growth. “It was a slow burn for three years and then a huge explosion,” he told TechCrunch this month. “Now the rocket is going.”


Some rockets make it into orbit. Others disintegrate in the atmosphere. Signal employees I spoke to worry that the app’s appetite for growth, coupled with inattention to potential misuses of the product, threaten its long-term future. (Of course, not growing would threaten its long-term future in other ways.)

It’s often said that social networks’ more disturbing consequences are a result of their business model. First, they take venture capital, pushing them to quickly grow as big as possible. Then, they adopt ad-based business models that reward users who spread misinformation, harass others, and otherwise sow chaos.

Signal’s story illustrates how simply changing an organization’s business model does not eliminate the potential for platform abuse. Wherever there are incentives to grow, and grow quickly, dangers will accumulate, no matter who is paying the engineers’ salaries.

Signal employees I spoke to said they are confident that the app has not become a primary organizing tool for extremists — though, given its encryption nature, it’s difficult to know for sure. So far, there are no known cases of dangerous organizations posting Signal group links on Twitter or other public spaces. (One employee pointed out that fascists are often quite public about their activities, as the recent insurrection in broad daylight at the Capitol showed.) Usernames and cryptocurrencies are unlikely to cause major problems for the organization until and unless they launch.

At the same time, my sources expressed concern that despite the clear potential for abuse, Signal seemed content to make few efforts to mitigate any harms before they materialize.

“The thing about software is that you never can fully anticipate everything,” Marlinspike told me. “We just have to be willing to iterate.”

On one hand, all software requires iteration. On the other hand, a failure to plan for abuse scenarios has been linked to calamities around the world. (Facebook’s links to genocide in Myanmar, a country in which it originally had no moderators who understood the language, is the canonical example.) And it makes Signal’s potential path more similar to Facebook than its creators are perhaps prepared to admit.

In our conversation, Marlinspike committed to hiring an employee to work on issues related to policy and trust and safety. And he said Signal would change or even eliminate group links from the product if they were abused on a wide scale.

Still, Marlinspike said, it was important to him that Signal not become neutered in the pursuit of a false neutrality between good and bad actors. Marginalized groups depend on secure private messaging to safely conduct everything from basic day-to-day communication to organized activism, he told me. Signal exists to improve that experience and make it accessible to more people, even if bad actors might also find it useful.

“I want us as an organization to be really careful about doing things that make Signal less effective for those sort of bad actors if it would also make Signal less effective for the types of actors that we want to support and encourage,” he said. “Because I think that the latter have an outsized risk profile. There’s an asymmetry there, where it could end up affecting them more dramatically.”

Bernstein, though, saw it differently.

“I think that’s a copout,” he said. “Nobody is saying to change Signal fundamentally. There are little things he could do to stop Signal from becoming a tool for tragic events, while still protecting the integrity of the product for the people who need it the most.”


This column was co-published with Platformer, a daily newsletter about Big Tech and democracy.



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Apple issues new warning: Keep your iPhone six inches away from your pacemaker

In a notice published on Apple’s support page Saturday, the company expanded upon previously issued safety information, warning users that iPhones contain magnets and radios that emit electromagnetic fields, both of which “may interfere” with medical devices such as implanted pacemakers and defibrillators.
The Saturday notice specifically warns users about “the magnets inside” all four iPhone 12 models, as well as MagSafe accessories. Apple (AAPL) notes that iPhone 12 versions contain more magnets than prior iPhone models, but it also said they don’t pose a greater risk of magnetic interference with medical devices than earlier models.

Apple said in the update that medical devices can contain sensors that may react to magnets or radio waves that come in close proximity. The company recommends keeping iPhones and MagSafe chargers a “safe distance” away from medical devices — which it defines as more than 6 inches apart, or 15 inches apart when wirelessly charging.

When Apple unveiled the iPhone 12 last fall, the company also announced the return of MagSafe — formerly a beloved MacBook feature — for the iPhone. Customers can buy MagSafe charging docks to wirelessly juice-up their devices, and other magnetic accessories including cases and wallets that attach to the back of the phones.
Apple did not immediately respond to a request for comment on why it is now expanding on the safety guidance. But the Heart Rhythm Journal released a report earlier this month claiming that the magnets in the iPhone 12 that make it compatible with MagSafe accessories could interfere with an implanted defibrillator.

“Consult your physician and medical device manufacturer for information specific to your medical device and whether you need to maintain a safe distance of separation between your medical device and iPhone or any MagSafe accessories,” Apple said in the notice. “Manufacturers often provide recommendations on the safe use of their devices around wireless or magnetic products to prevent possible interference.”

If a customer feels like their iPhone 12 or MagSafe charger is interfering with their medical device, they should stop using them, Apple said.

Another thing iPhone 12 users should be aware of when using MagSafe chargers: Avoid placing credit cards, security badges, passports or key FOBs between your phone and your MagSafe charger, as the magnets might damage magnetic strips or RFID chips in these items, Apple warns. If you have a phone case that holds such items, be sure to remove them before wirelessly charging your device.

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How Manaus, Brazil missed warning after warning until its health system collapsed

For the medical workers, it’s frantic 36-hour shifts. For the gravediggers, it’s moving the tons of dirt required to create 20,000 more graves.

For the dead, it’s the “vertical” burial, with bodies stacked atop each other in the increasingly crowded cemeteries of Manaus, Brazil.

This is the heartbreak of a city whose health care system has collapsed. And it isn’t the first time — in less than a year, this isolated city at the core of the Brazilian rainforest is witnessing its second coronavirus wave, a shock to the many who thought its first wave was so widespread that herd immunity must be the result.

Missed warnings

Manaus is the capital and largest city in the state of Amazonas. It has over 30 public and private hospitals, catering to numerous remote indigenous and small communities around the area. But the logistics of getting there — and supplying those hospitals — can be complicated. With road connections limited, most approaches to the city are by air or river.

The coronavirus first tore through Manaus like wildfire in April 2020, creating such a vast surge of cases that scientists speculated it might result in herd immunity. Politicians seized on the idea, hopeful they would be able to avoid economically damaging lockdowns in the future.

But in September 2020, the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz), a highly regarded Brazilian research institute for public health, recommended that the city impose movement and business restrictions. Manaus was beginning to experience a second wave of the disease, it said. But the city did not impose one.

“We gave 13 alerts, and a very alarming one in mid-December, saying that the situation was getting very serious. Everyone was making fun of the studies and warnings, especially the President Jair Bolsonaro,” says Jesem Orellana, researcher at Fiocruz.

Orellana adds that both the state and federal government used the theory of herd immunity to back up their relaxed measures. “They all talked about herd immunity, and an environment was created for this discourse to crystallize, and the measures to relax. That feeling may have been responsible for this relaxation of people’s behavior.”

A few months later, by late December, the surging number of recorded Covid-19 deaths and cases in Manaus was undeniable. Amazonas state governor Wilson Lima acquiesced to expert advice, announcing new lockdown measures. But these were fiercely denounced by protesters who echoed Brazilian Bolsonaro’s urging to keep the country’s economy running. Lima quickly backed down and celebrations rang.
In an exclusive interview with CNN, Manaus mayor David Almeida now blames those protest gatherings and unfettered year-end celebrations for the current spike in cases, which has brought the city to a total of over 248,000 cases and more than 7,050 deaths.

“We are paying the price for this disobedience, these protests from the end of last year. A lot of people need to be held accountable for this,” said Almeida, who took office earlier this month. “During the New Year celebrations, it was precisely the party promoters who were the vectors for this transmission, this propagation and this rise in cases.”

Starting Monday, the state of Amazonas will now go into a seven-day lockdown.

Running out of oxygen

By early January, it became clear that the city was on the verge of running out of oxygen — critical for patients with severe cases of Covid-19.

A company named White Martins, which supplied hospitals in Manaus with oxygen, emailed officials from both Amazonas state and the federal Health Ministry by January 8, warning that shortages loomed, according to a report by Brazil’s Solicitor General.
Health Minister Eduardo Pazuello visited Manaus January 11, and the federal government sent supplemental oxygen on January 12 — but it was not enough.
According to the attorney general’s report, Pazuello also encouraged medical professionals to adopt a supposed “early treatment” kit against Covid-19 that combines drugs including hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin — neither of which have been proven as effective treatments for Covid-19. He has since denied doing this.

The day after his departure, a crisis exploded. Just as predicted, oxygen shortages pushed the city’s healthcare system into collapse last week, forcing authorities to airlift patients to other states. Local media described patients dying of asphyxiation. Preliminary numbers released by the Federal Prosecutor’s Office, which is investigating the crisis, attribute 29 deaths so far due to the oxygen shortages. That number is expected to increase as the investigation continues.

“The reality is that there’s a lower supply of oxygen,” Pazuello acknowledged later. “Not an interruption, but a lower supply of oxygen.”

The shortages persist today. Last week, CNN counted around 40 people in line to buy or replace oxygen cylinders from one private supplier, some frustrated, others anxious.

“There was no preparation from the state for this new surge,” Joseney Costa Vicente, 49, told CNN as he tried to buy oxygen for his mother, who is 69 and has tested positive for Covid-19. He spent 16 hours in a hospital with no oxygen or medical attention, he says, before the family decided to care for her at home.

“It makes me angry. We feel really upset and outraged with this whole situation.”

Eliane Rodrigues, 49, says at times she’s had to wait more than 12 hours to buy oxygen. Everyone in her house has tested positive for Covid-19, and her mother, 71, is in the worst shape.

Fatigued and stressed as they are, many believe it’s better to care for the sick at home than send them to a hospital.

“We don’t trust the government,” Rodrigues says, fearing having to take her mother to a hospital. “We’re afraid there will be more death than life there.”

Hospitals remain stretched to the limit. Over 530 people are still waiting for a hospital bed, according to the Amazonas State Health Secretary.

CNN visited three hospitals that said they could accept no more patients. People waited outside frantically hoping to find space to hospitalize their loved ones, some screaming and crying.

At one hospital’s doors, staff and a security guard worked to ensure that no one entered without authorization, but were unable to provide even basic information to panicked relatives waiting for updates on patients.

Waiting outside, Amanda da Silva Monteiro told CNN that no one had been able to locate her father, 71, for two days since his hospitalization with Covid-19.

“My dad is a working man. I have the right to know if he’s alive or dead,” da Silva Monteiro told CNN. “Every day we’re here but they don’t give us any information.”

Investigations and finger-pointing

Who is responsible for letting this lethal crisis boil over? Unpreparedness and political upheaval have been blamed for the current situation in Manaus. A clear disconnect between the local and federal governments has also created turmoil since the pandemic began last year.

The office of General Prosecutor Augusto Aras has called for an investigation into the Health Ministry’s response to warnings about Manaus’ oxygen shortages, as well as investigations into Amazonas state governor Lima, former Manaus mayor Arthur Virgilio Neto and current mayor Almeida.

But the federal government rejects responsibility for allowing oxygen shortages to reach such critical lows — and blames the government of Amazonas state instead. Brazil’s vice president Hamilton Mourão said earlier this month that — despite multiple warnings from scientists — there was no way to predict the collapse of Manaus’ health system. Pazuello himself denies that his ministry failed to act effectively, and Bolsonaro has accused the state government of mismanaging federal funds.

The Amazonas state government, in turn, has blamed the logistical challenges of rapidly resupplying this isolated city. On Sunday, the State Health Department told CNN that it was making “every effort, with the assistance of the Federal Government, to address the difficulties encountered in the oxygen supply logistics,” including deploying planes, helicopters and speedboats loaded with more oxygen cylinders.

For his part, Almeida says the city government is not responsible for the current crisis. Though all hospitals have been overrun with Covid-19 cases, he notes that city-run hospitals did not suffer as extreme oxygen shortages as state hospitals.

His month in office “feels more like a year,” he adds.

A recipe for catastrophe

Amazonas state authorities say they will soon open two more hospitals, one with federal support, to increase the city’s available bedcount. Pazuello, the Health Minister, has returned to Manaus and this time, he will stay “as long as necessary” to get the city’s health system back on track, he says.

But many Manaus residents have little confidence left in authorities to respond to the coronavirus — and emerging variants of the virus pose additional levels of complication and potential threat.

Luan Matos de Menezes, a 26-year-old ICU doctor, describes what he sees today as an even worse version of what the city suffered last year.

“What’s happening is really serious. You can tell that patients’ conditions are much more critical than in the first wave. It’s much more grave than in other parts of the country. The deaths are much quicker. The number of serious infections is much higher than in the first wave, and the patients are younger.” says Menezes.

“Yesterday I had a 24-year-old guy die in my ICU. I’ve got patients who are 32 and 29. Young patients who are in very critical condition.”

Tired and frustrated, Matos de Menezes says he blames both authorities and the Manaus community for failing to learn last year’s lessons, and for clinging to unproven theories instead of following scientific recommendation.

“So you have a community that thinks it’s safe based on a false (theory of) herd immunity and based on ineffective medicines for Covid-19, in addition to a new variant that is more transmissible and more serious that is circulating in the community… You had the recipe to make this catastrophe happen.”

And at every level, Brazilian officials failed to take preventative action in time, he concludes, attributing the slow response to a reluctance to damage the economy.

“A vaccine that starts off late, a lockdown that started late. Done in the name of a God that is called money, in the name of shop owners’ greed, in the name of businessmen’s greed. Until they realize that they are going to get sick and there won’t be a place to get treatment here and money won’t buy life.”

Correction: This story has been updated to clarify that Amazonas state will lock down for seven days on Monday, instead of ten.

Marcia Reverdosa reported from Manaus, Brazil. CNN’s Taylor Barnes and journalist Rodrigo Pedroso contributed to this report.

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Trump’s lawyers must get 72-hour warning if Treasury turns over president’s tax returns to Democrats: judge

The U.S. Treasury Department must grant former President Trump’s lawyers a 72-hour warning if it allows his tax returns to be released to Democrats, a judge ruled Friday, according to a report.

U.S. Rep. Richard Neal, D-Mass., chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, is still seeking the returns after he was refused access to them in 2019 by then-Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who claimed Democrats didn’t have a “legitimate legislative purpose” for the request, Politico reported.

Neal had cited a law that requires the Treasury to turn over tax documents at the request of House tax committees.

Democrats sued in federal court in a case that is still pending a year and a half later.

NEW YORK TIMES AND TRUMP TAXES: WHY IT’S NOT A CAMPAIGN BOMBSHELL

Washington, D.C., District Court Judge Trevor McFadden, a Trump appointee, put the two-week order in place because the Treasury Department could reverse course under the new Biden administration.

He also ordered both sides to give a status report on Feb. 3.

The nomination of President Biden’s Treasury secretary pick, former Federal Reserve boss Janet Yellen, was unanimously approved by the Senate Finance Committee on Friday and now heads to the full Senate for a vote Monday. 

WHO IS JANET YELLEN, BIDEN’S PICK TO LEAD THE TREASURY? 

Douglas Letter, general counsel for the House, told McFadden in the hearing that Treasury has a “clear legal obligation” to turn over the documents that Democrats still want even though he’s out of office, according to Politico. “Our feeling is enough is enough. The statute is clear,” he said. 

It’s unclear if the Treasury Department under Biden will allow the House access to the returns.

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Democrats and the district attorney of New York City are also seeking his tax returns in separate cases.

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