Tag Archives: Vladimir Putin

‘Russia’s Rambo’ — once a Putin favorite — says he’d now fight for Ukraine and feels ‘nothing but hatred’ for his home country



CNN
 — 

Russian actor Artur Smolyaninov was the star of one of President Vladimir Putin’s favorite films – about a Soviet unit making a last-ditch stand against Afghan insurgents. Now he is classified as a “foreign agent” and faces criminal investigation.

Smolyaninov was the hero of “Devyataya Rota” (The 9th Company), a Russian feature film that came out in 2005. He played the part of the last soldier standing during a battle in Afghanistan, which Soviet forces occupied for a decade. He was often described as Russia’s Rambo, a nod to the US action movies starring Sylvester Stallone.

Much has changed since then. Smolyaninov is in exile and in a recent interview said he was prepared to fight on Ukraine’s side and kill Russian soldiers. He told Novaya Gazeta last week: “I feel nothing but hatred to the people on the other (Russian) side of the frontline. And if I were there on the ground, there’d be no mercy.”

He said a former colleague had gone to fight on the Russian side. “Would I shoot him? Without any doubt! Do I keep my options to go fight for Ukraine open? Absolutely! This is the only way for me. And if I were to go to this war, I would only fight for Ukraine.”

A few days later, the Russian Ministry of Justice classified the actor as a foreign agent.

Alexander Bastrykin, the head of the Russia’s Investigative Committee, also ordered that a criminal case be opened against Smolyaninov.

Smolyaninov has been highly critical of the campaign in Ukraine. He recently recorded a Soviet-era song – Temnaya Noch (Dark Night) – with reworked lyrics.

It included the lines: “Take a look, occupier, How maternity homes are without power, How children sit in shelters. And how books are drowned. The Russian night Has reached schools and hospitals.”

Another verse referred to “a bunker, Where one Führer hides, And a bald little cook, Feeds the Fuhrer from a spoon.” The cook was a reference to Yevgeny Prigozhin, who runs the Wagner private military company and won catering contracts from the Kremlin.

When he first spoke out against the war last summer, Smolyaninov, who at the time he was in Russia, told an interviewer it was “a catastrophe, everything collapsed: ashes, smoke, stench, tears.”

Last October, a Moscow district court imposed a fine of 30,000 rubles (430 US dollars) against Smolyaninov on charges of discrediting the Russian armed forces. That same month, he left Russia and is thought to be in Latvia at present.

Smolyaninov recounted how he’d crossed the Russian border into Norway. “I crossed the border on foot… You just walk 30 meters and there are completely different people in front of you. They are so soft. Even the look is different.”

The film “Devyataya Rota” was so popular that Putin welcomed the actors and crew, including Smolyaninov to his residence outside Moscow in November 2005, where he put on a special showing of the movie.

The Kremlin said that after watching the film, Putin talked with director Fyodor Bondarchuk and the leading actors, including Smolyaninov.

Russian state news agency RIA Novosti reported at the time that Putin declared that the film “takes the soul, you immerse yourself in the film.”

“The film is very strong, such a real serious thing about the war and people who found themselves in extreme conditions in this war and showed themselves very worthy,” Putin said at the time.

The Russian Justice Ministry has added a number of others to its list of foreign agents in recent days, including music critic Artemy Troitsky and several journalists.

“These people were put on the register under article 7 of Russian law on the control of the activities of persons under foreign influence,” according to Russian state news agency TASS.

It was also reported this weekend that two well-known theatrical actors had been fired from the Chekhov Moscow Art Theater for criticizing the war in Ukraine. Dmitry Nazarov and his wife Olga Vasilyeva were dismissed by the artistic director of the theater, Konstantin Khabensky, who accused the actors of “anti-Russian sentiments.”

The state news agency TASS confirmed the duo had been fired, without specifying a reason.

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Russian airstrikes reported across Ukraine, including ‘attack on the capital’


Kyiv, Ukraine
CNN
 — 

Air raid sirens rang out across Ukraine on Saturday as Russia carried out another series of missile attacks across the country.

Missiles and explosions were heard everywhere from Lviv in the west; Kharkiv in the northeast; Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro in the southeast; Myokaliv in the south; and Kharkiv in the northeast, officials said.

Authorities in Kyiv said there was an “attack on the capital.” Blasts were heard as early as 6 a.m. local time, according to the head of Kyiv region military administration, Oleksiy Kuleba. Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko said strikes hit the city’s east bank, where several power facilities were located. The exact locations of the blasts could not be immediately verified by CNN. A thick fog blanketed much of the city.

However, Oleksandr Pavliuk, a Kyiv-based commander in the Ukrainian army, said the explosions in Kyiv were not caused by Russian attacks.

“The explosions are not connected with the threat from the air or air defense, as well as with any military actions,” Pavliuk wrote on the encrypted social media app Telegram. “If there was a threat – you would have heard the alarm. The cause of the explosions will be reported separately.”

As of Saturday afternoon, no casualties had been reported, but that could change, as a nine-story apartment building was struck in Dnipro. At least 10 people, including two children were wounded, according to Valentyn Reznichenko, the head of the Dnipropetrovsk regional military administration. Three are in serious condition.

Kyrylo Tymoshenko, an aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, 15 people had been rescued from the rubble.

Russia’s latest nationwide salvo appeared to target critical infrastructure across Ukraine, as the Kremlin continues its efforts to limit the country’s ability to heat and power itself in the middle of winter.

On the battlefield, all eyes are fixed on Soledar, a town of little strategic value that Russia is attempting to retake in the hopes that it will provide Russian President Vladimir Putin a symbolic victory. Various units of the Ukrainian military said that Soledar remains the scene of “fierce fighting.” Russia’s Ministry of Defense claimed that its forces took control of the town, although Kyiv has denied it.

After a broad assessment regarding the situation on the ground in Ukraine, several Western governments have decided to answer Zelensky’s longstanding call to supply modern battle tanks to Kyiv.

France, Poland and the United Kingdom have pledged to soon send tanks for the Ukrainian military to use in its efforts to protect itself from Russia. Finland is considering following suit. Britain said it plans to send a dozen Challenger 2 tanks and additional artillery systems. Poland plans to send a company of German-built Leopard tanks while France will deliver its domestically built AMX 10-RCs.

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Vladimir Putin Faces This New Arsenal of U.S., European Weapons in 2023

The war that Vladimir Putin thought he would win in a matter of days is still raging on after nearly a year, with both sides desperately seeking more equipment, soldiers, and international support. But Russia, it seems, may soon be in for a knock-out blow—courtesy of Ukraine’s friends in the U.S. and Europe.

Last week, Washington announced a new $3.8 billion arms package to Ukraine that included everything from sorely-needed air defense systems to artillery shells. Most of Ukraine’s excitement, though, was reserved for the inclusion of the Bradley fighting vehicle, a capable armored vehicle that Ukraine has long sought to help reclaim land seized by Russia. The decision to finally send Bradleys signals that even more sophisticated weapons systems, including tanks, might be just over the horizon.

The line of what systems are “too escalatory” to send to Ukraine has constantly been moving in Ukraine’s favor, with weapons thought to be too escalatory at the start of the war now either on their way or on the table. The U.S. and other countries have sent artillery to Ukraine throughout the conflict, but non-Soviet tanks and infantry fighting vehicles—IFVs for short—were an informal red line until just recently.

It’s not just the U.S. that’s changing their minds about what’s appropriate to send. Over the past few weeks, Germany promised to send 40 Marder infantry fighting vehicles. German and American IFVs are in various states of modernization, but they will still make a big difference, as both Russia and Ukraine are currently using a mishmash of IFVs that include much older equivalents.

The biggest question is the provision of modern American and European tanks. Eastern European countries like Poland and Czechia have delivered hundreds of Soviet-era tanks to Ukraine throughout the war. The Ukrainians have made good use of donated tanks, but have consistently asked for the more modern tanks made by the U.S., Germany, and others.

Though Europe has been reticent about sending tanks, the tide might be turning, with both the German-made Leopard 2 and the British-made Challenger 2 on the table. France already promised the AMX-10RC, which is more comparable to a tank destroyer, but has fallen short of promising its own main battle tank, the Leclerc.

The Leopard 2 is considered the most viable candidate among western tanks. Even if Germany itself doesn’t send any, other European countries from Spain to Finland can field them, and countries that can’t spare Leopards can still send spare parts.

Though the German government has the authority to restrict owners of German-made tanks from transferring them to Ukraine, the country is now under much stronger pressure to allow other countries to transfer Leopards.

On Jan. 10, Politico reported that France was pressuring Berlin to send tanks, and a day later, the president of Poland announced that some of their Leopard 2s would be sent to Ukraine— without clarifying if Germany would allow it. If Berlin does eventually agree to send tanks or allow other nations to re-export them, they will likely announce it around the Franco-German summit later this month.

The U.K. is also reportedly planning to send tanks, but would be limited in how many they could reasonably send as the size of their tank fleet dwindled over the past few years, leaving the British army with few to spare.

Beyond new donations, key equipment promised in 2022 is set to arrive in 2023. The most notable of these are air defense systems. In December, the U.S. promised a PATRIOT missile battery and France secured the export of the SAMP/T, both of which will likely be deployed in the next few months once crews are trained. The L3 VAMPIRE, a smaller system designed to shoot down drones at a fraction of the cost of more sophisticated systems, is also set to arrive in the coming months.

While Ukraine looks forward to more weapons, Russia is looking for more men. Ukraine claims that Russia will try to mobilize half a million reservists to support new offensives against Ukraine in the coming year. If Ukraine is correct, the new forces would add to the 300,000 reservists Putin called up last fall. Mobilizing that many reservists will be chaotic—but the influx of troops will make it harder for Ukraine to regain more territory.

Russia does not have international donors like Ukraine, but Moscow’s growing partnership with Iran will likely grow through 2023. Iran already supplied Russia with drones used to attack Ukraine’s infrastructure, but many of the drones and missiles rumored to appear have not yet been seen on the battlefield. Some commentators argue that Iran is waiting until October, when a UN resolution related to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal—which would trigger sanctions if Iran supplies long-range missiles—expires.

Iran has much more to offer Russia than missiles and drones. The country has been under international sanctions for some time and is more adept at dodging international restrictions. Tehran will not only be able to help Russia with oil smuggling to finance the war, but may be able to assist Russia in acquiring Western-made components for its missiles and drones. The U.S. stepped up sanctions on Iran over its weapons transfers this month, but stopping the supply of components altogether will be difficult.

With so many possibilities for weapons transfers, it’s difficult to tell how 2023 will shape up for Ukraine. Russia’s willingness to call up hundreds of thousands of new soldiers and leverage their relationship with countries like Iran will improve their ability to keep up the fight. On the other hand, if the U.S. and European support grows in size and scope, Ukraine’s commanders will find themselves at the head of an even more lethal fighting force.

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Putin’s reshuffle of Ukraine’s military command reveals power struggle

Russian President Vladimir Putin (C) toasts holding a glass of vodka with Gen. Valery Gerasimov, who is now in charge of the military campaign in Ukraine, back in 2016.

Mikhail Svetlov | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s latest reshuffle of the top brass in charge of Ukraine operations reveals a deeper power struggle between Moscow’s military command and its domestic detractors, analysts say.

One of the most prominent and powerful critics of Moscow’s strategy in Ukraine is Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group — a private military company fighting in Ukraine. Prigozhin has slammed defense chiefs for a series of humiliating losses and retreats during the war.

His criticism seemed to bear fruit with the October appointment of Gen. Sergei Surovikin as the overall battlefield commander for Russian troops in Ukraine. Prigozhin praised the designation and described Surovikin — nicknamed “General Armageddon — as “the most able commander in the Russian army.”

Surovikin later oversaw a massive aerial bombardment of Ukraine, damaging a large proportion of its energy infrastructure at the onset of winter. He also had the unenviable task of suggesting (in what appeared to be a choreographed meeting on Russian television) to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu that Russian troops should withdraw from a part of Kherson in southern Ukraine in November — an unpopular move that was nevertheless endorsed by Prigozhin.

Surovikin’s mandate has ended just three months later. With few territorial gains to show in Ukraine, he was on Wednesday replaced with commander Gen. Valery Gerasimov and appointed as his deputy, the Russian defense ministry said. Gerasimov is a Putin loyalist and was the highest ranking uniformed officer in Russia in his previous role as chief of Russia’s armed forces.

Russian President Vladimir Putin (C) speaks with Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu (R) and Chief of the Gen. Valery Gerasimov (L) after a meeting of the Russian Defence Ministry Board on December 21, 2022.

Mikhail Klimentyev | Afp | Getty Images

Analysts say the replacement could point to Moscow’s shifting sentiment toward Prigozhin and the Wagner Group, on top of Putin’s dissatisfaction with the lack of tactical advances in the Moscow-styled “special military operation” in Ukraine.

Long-term Putin associate and ally Prigozhin has become more outspoken during the war jas his estimated 50,000-men strong private military company — which also recruits from Russian prisons — has achieved successes on the battlefield. Nonetheless, Prigozhin’s criticism of Russia’s military commanders and frequent boasts over the Wagner Group’s triumphs have raised heckles in Moscow.

On Tuesday, Prigozhin claimed that his military company had single-handedly taken control of Soledar in Donetsk, a key target and the site of intense clashes for months. The Kremlin was far more cautious about declaring a victory, however, and Russia’s Ministry of Defense said its elite airborne forces had surrounded Soledar from the north and south while fighting continued in the town center.

Power struggle

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War said Gerasimov’s promotion,and the broader command overhaul likely sought to reinforce “traditional power structures” like Russia’s Ministry of Defense (MoD) against challenges from Prigozhin and other “siloviki” — or “strongmen” — who have been critical of Moscow’s Ukraine military strategy.

“Gerasimov’s appointment as theater commander likely advances two Kremlin efforts: an attempt to improve Russian command and control for a decisive military effort in 2023, and a political move to strengthen the Russian MoD against challenges from the Russian millbloggers and siloviki, such as Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin, who have criticized the Kremlin’s conduct of the war,” analysts at the ISW said in an assessment Wednesday evening.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, a Russian businessman and close ally of Vladimir Putin, recently admitted to creating the Wagner Group, a private military company fighting in Ukraine, in 2014.

Mikhail Svetlov | Getty Images

“The elevation of Gerasimov and the Russian MoD over Surovikin, a favorite of Prigozhin and the siloviki faction, is additionally highly likely to have been in part a political decision to reassert the primacy of the Russian MoD in an internal Russian power struggle,” they added. Gerasimov’s promotion could also be “a signal for Prigozhin and other actors to reduce their criticism of the MoD.”

“Prigozhin has relentlessly promoted the Wagner Group at the expense of the Russian MoD’s reputation and may double down on his flashy advertisements on Russian social media and state-affiliated outlets to assert the superiority of his forces,” the ISW concluded.

Poisoned chalice

The U.K.’s Ministry of Defence also commented on the reshuffle Wednesday, calling it an indication “of the increasing seriousness of the situation Russia is facing, and a clear acknowledgement that the campaign is falling short of Russia’s strategic goals.”

It added that the move was likely to be greeted with “extreme displeasure” by much of the Russian ultra-nationalist and military blogger community, “who have increasingly blamed Gerasimov for the poor execution of the war.”

“In contrast, Surovikin has been widely praised by this community for his championing of a more realistic approach. As a now deputy commander, his authority and influence is almost certainly hugely reduced.”

Sergei Surovikin, the former commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, seen here in 2021.

Mikhail Metzel | Afp | Getty Images

Surovikin may benefit from not being in command, according to political scientist Mark Galeotti, who said Gerasimov was being handed “the most poisoned of chalices.”

“For Gerasimov …it is a kind of demotion, or at least the most poisoned of chalices. It’s now on him, and I suspect Putin has unrealistic expectations again,” Galeotti, director of the consultancy Mayak Intelligence, said on Twitter Wednesday.

“It has been pretty clear that there will be spring offensives …There may well be some advances, but nothing decisive (and the Ukrainians themselves will be looking to a spring offensive). In many ways, I don’t think Moscow’s strategy hinges anyway on battlefield victory — it’s more about politics. In other words, demonstrating to the West that Russia is in this for the long haul, and hoping that we will lose the will and unity to continue to support Kyiv,” he said.

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Defiant Alexey Navalny has opposed Putin’s war in Ukraine from prison. His team fear for his safety

Editor’s Note: The award-winning CNN Film “Navalny” airs on CNN this Saturday at 9 p.m. ET. You can also watch now on CNNgo and HBO Max.



CNN
 — 

Surviving President Vladimir Putin’s poisoners was just a warm-up, not a warning, for Russian opposition politician Alexey Navalny. But his defiance, according to his political team, has put him in a race against time with the Russian autocrat.

The question, according to Navalny’s chief investigator, Maria Pevchikh, is whether he can outlast Putin and his war in Ukraine – and on that the verdict is still out. “So far, touch wood, they haven’t gone ahead with trying to kill him again,” she told CNN.

On January 17, 2021, undaunted and freshly recovered from an attempt on his life five months earlier – a near lethal dose of the deadly nerve agent Novichok delivered by Putin’s henchmen – Navalny boldly boarded a flight taking him right back into the Kremlin’s hands.

By then, Navalny had become Putin’s nemesis. So strong is the Russian leader’s aversion to his challenger that even to this day he refuses to say his name.

As Navalny stepped off the flight from Berlin onto the frigid tarmac at Moscow’s Sheremetyevo airport that snowy evening, he knew exactly what he was getting into. Just weeks before leaving Germany, he told CNN: “I understand that Putin hates me, I understand that people in the Kremlin are ready to kill.”

Navalny’s path to understanding had come at a high cost. He knew in intimate and excruciating detail exactly how close he had come to death at the hands of Putin’s poisoners while on the political campaign trail in Siberia to support local candidates.

As he recovered in Berlin from the August 2020 assassination attempt, Navalny and his crack research team – acting on some creative sleuthing by investigative outfit Bellingcat and CNN – figured out who his would-be killers were and discovered they’d been tailing him on Putin’s orders for over three years.

So detailed was Navalny’s knowledge that, posing as an official with Russia’s National Security Council, he was able to call one of the would-be killers, who promptly confessed to lacing Navalny’s underwear with the banned nerve agent Novichok.

The security service agent, one of a large team from the feared FSB, the Soviet KGB’s modern replacement, even offered a critique of their failed murder bid. He told Navalny he’d survived only because the plane carrying him diverted for medical help when he became sick, and suggested that the assassination attempt might have succeeded on a longer flight.

When challenged face-to-face at the door of his Moscow apartment by CNN’s Clarissa Ward, who along with journalists from Der Spiegel and The Insider had also helped in the investigation, the agent swiftly shut himself inside. Russia has repeatedly denied any involvement in the attempt on Navalny’s life.

When Putin was asked if he’d tried to have Navalny killed, he smirked, saying: “If there was such a desire, it would have been done.”

Despite his denials, Putin’s desire was transparent: Navalny’s magnetism was positioning him as the Russian leader’s biggest political threat.

Today he is the best-known anti-Putin politician in Russia and is putting his life on the line to break Putin’s stranglehold over Russians.

Navalny’s team, who are in self-imposed exile for their safety, believe their boss is in a race for survival against Putin.

Pevchikh, who heads Navalny’s investigative team and helped winkle out his would-be assassins, says the war in Ukraine – which Navalny has condemned from his prison cell behind bars – will bring Putin down. The question, she says, is whether Navalny can survive Putin. “It’s a bit of a race. You know, at this point, who lasts longer?”

Navalny’s almost immediate incarceration after landing from Germany and his subsequent detention in one of Russia’s most dangerous jails prisons – he was moved in June to a maximum-security prison facility in Melekhovo, in the Vladimir region – is no surprise.

What is remarkable is that despite every physical and mental blow Putin’s brutal penal regime has dealt him, Navalny still refuses to be silenced.

Even while behind bars, his Instagram and Twitter accounts keep up his attacks on Putin. “He passes hundreds of notes and we type them up,” Pevchikh says. She didn’t specify how the notes were relayed.

But it’s not without cost: With every trumped-up turn of Putin’s tortuous legal machinations, Navalny has had to fight for even basic rights like boots and medication. His health has suffered, he has lost weight.

His daughter, Dasha Navalnaya, currently studying at Stanford University in California, told CNN he is being systematically singled out for harsh treatment.

Prison authorities are repeatedly cycling him in and out of solitary confinement, she says. “They put him in for a week, then take him out for one day,” to try to break him, she said. “People are not allowed to communicate with him, and this kind of isolation is really purely psychological torture.”

His physical treatment, she said, is just as horrendous. “It’s a small cell, six (or) seven-by-eight feet… a cage for someone who is of his six-foot-three height,” she told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria. “He only has one iron stool, which is sewed to the floor. And out of personal possessions he is allowed to have: a mug, a toothbrush, and one book.”

In the past few days, Navalny’s lawyer has said he has a “temperature, fever and a cough.” He hasn’t seen a doctor yet and his team is struggling to get medicine to him in his isolation cell.

His wife Yulia, who says she received a letter from Navalny on Wednesday, has also raised concerns about his health. She says he has been sick for over a week, and that he is not getting treatment and is forced off his sick bed during the day.

At least 531 Russian doctors as of Wednesday had signed an open letter addressed to Putin to demand that Navalny should be provided with necessary medical assistance, according to the Facebook post where the letter was published.

His family haven’t seen him since May last year and his daughter fears what may come next. “This is one of the most dangerous and famous high security prisons in Russia known for torturing and murdering the inmates,” she said.

In his last moments of freedom as police grabbed him at Sheremetyevo airport on his return to Russia nearly two years ago, Navalny kissed his wife Yulia goodbye.

Outside, riot police beat back the crowds who’d come to welcome them home. It was the beginning of a new chapter in Navalny’s struggle, one he is aware he may not survive.

Before leaving Germany, he’d recorded a message about what to do if the worst happened: “My message for the situation when I am killed is very simple: not give up… The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good people to do nothing. So don’t be inactive.”

When Navalny appeared in a Moscow court after his arrest at the airport, the huge scale of his problems was just beginning to become apparent. He was defiant; cut off from the world inside a cage in the crowded court, he signaled his love to his wife just yards away in the tiny room.

The trial itself was a farce. He was handed a two-and-a-half-year jail sentence for allegedly breaking the terms of his probation in an old, politically motivated case.

The courtroom theater was a typically Putinesque twist of Russia’s easily manipulated judicial process. Navalny’s alleged probation violation came as he lay incapacitated in the Berlin hospital recovering from the Novichok poisoning he and Western officials blame on the Kremlin.

If the court process in Putin’s Russia was a surreal circus, jail was to be its brutal twin where the Russian leader hoped to break Navalny’s will.

But far from defeated, and a lawyer by training, Navalny fought for his basic prison rights through legal challenges.

After his sentencing, Navalny went on a hunger strike, complaining he was being deprived of sleep by prison guards who kept waking him up. He began suffering health issues and demanded proper medical attention.

Against a backdrop of international outrage, Navalny was moved to a prison hospital; meanwhile Moscow’s courts moved to have him declared a terrorist or extremist and Putin shut down his political operations across the country.

In January 2022 Navalny appealed this designation, but after another six months of judicial theater he lost.

And there were more charges. In March that year, he was convicted of yet more trumped-up charges – contempt of court and embezzlement – and he was transferred to Melekhovo’s maximum security penal colony IK-6, hundreds of miles from Moscow.

At every turn, Navalny fought back, threatening in November 2022 to sue prison authorities for withholding winter boots, and, most recently, mounting a legal challenge to know what prison medics have been injecting him with.

Putin’s efforts to break him have no bounds, Navalny has said, describing his months in a punitive punishment cell as an attempt to “shut me up.” Often, he has been made to share the tiny space with a convict who has serious hygiene issues, he said on Twitter.

Navalny says he saw it for what it was: Putin’s callous use of people. “What especially infuriates me is the instrumentalization of a living person, turning him into a pressure tool,” he said.

But his suffering is paying off, according to Pevechikh. “We have had a very successful year in terms of our organization,” she said. “We are now one of the most loud, anti-war, anti-war media that there is available.”

It’s the fact Navalny returned to Russia that persuades people he is genuine, she said. “The level of risk that he takes on himself personally… is very impressive,” she said. “And I would imagine that our audience recognises that.”

Perhaps because of this, but certainly despite the more than 700 days in jail, where he remains subject to Putin’s vindictive whims, Navalny’s spirit seems strong.

At New Year he made light of his inhumane treatment, saying on Instagram that he had put up Christmas decorations he’d been sent in a letter from his family. When the guards took them down, he said, “the mood remained.”

His team posted a poignant photoshopped picture of him with his family – a way of keeping alive their New Year tradition of being together – and quoted Navalny as saying: “I can feel the threads and wires going to my wife, children, parents, brother, all the people closest to me.”

His New Year message to his many supporters is both stark and sincere: “Thank you all so much for your support this year. It hasn’t stopped for a minute, not even for a second, and I’ve felt it.”

For what dark horrors Putin may yet choose to visit on him, even the resilient Navalny will need all the support he can get.

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Latest news on Russia and the war in Ukraine

Kremlin says Britain has not asked for help over missing Britons

Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov.

Contributor | Getty Images News | Getty Images

The Kremlin’s press spokesman said Britain has not requested any help from Moscow following the disappearance of two Britons near the zone of intense fighting in Donetsk in eastern Ukraine.

The men, Chris Parry and Andrew Bagshaw, were working as volunteers in the country helping people to evacuate and were last seen traveling toward Soledar, the epicenter of fierce fighting between Russia and Ukraine this week. Around 500 civilians are believed to still be in the town despite the intense battles in and around the town.

Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov was asked by reporters to comment on a claim by the head of Russia’s Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, that the body of one of the two missing Britons had been found. Prigozhin’s press service did not say which of the men it had found, or provide any evidence to support Prigozhin’s claim, but posted images of their passports on Telegram, claiming the documents had been found on the body.

Peskov claimed the men were “militants,” without providing evidence. The Britons’ families say the men were aid workers.

“We do not have any information on this. The only thing we know, again only from media reports, is that we are talking about British citizens who, in fact, were militants, participated in hostilities with weapons in their hands, and, it seems, their documents were found on the battlefield. But we don’t know the details.”

“This is an area where fighting continues, a special military operation, so sometimes it is difficult to get some information quickly,” Peskov said, adding that Britain had not asked Moscow for help.

Asked whether Moscow was ready to help if requested, Peskov said it would depend on “what they would ask for” but requests would be considered.

“And what could be our help here? It depends on what can be formulated by the British side. But I am not aware of any contacts. I do not know, maybe there were some contacts through the Foreign Ministry. I am not aware of this.”

— Holly Ellyatt

Ukrainian troops hold out in Soledar as Russia builds up forces, Kyiv says

This grab taken from AFP video footage shows a member of Ukraine’s military looking away as a BM-21’Grad’ MLRS 122mm rocket launcher fires on the outskirts of Soledar on January 11, 2023.

Arman Soldin | Afp | Getty Images

Russia is building up its forces in Ukraine but Ukrainian forces are holding out in fierce fighting for the eastern town of Soledar, Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Malyar said on Thursday.

She told a news briefing that the number of Russian military units in Ukraine had risen to 280 from 250 a week earlier as Moscow tried to gain the “strategic initiative”.

“Fighting is fierce in the Soledar direction,” Malyar said. “They (the Russians) are moving over their own corpses.”

“Russia is driving its own people to the slaughter by the thousands, but we are holding on,” she said.

Another senior military official, Brigadier General Oleksiy Gromov, told the briefing that the military situation in Ukraine remained “difficult”, with the heaviest fighting on the eastern front.

Russian forces were trying to cut through Ukrainian lines and surround Ukrainian troops, he said.

Gromov also said the danger of an attack being launched from Belarus, a Russian ally to the north of Ukraine, would remain throughout this year.

— Reuters

Russian forces struck Kherson region 90 times yesterday, official says

General view of the missile impact on a street in the city of Kherson after a missile struck a residential area of the city on the night of Jan. 10, 2023.

Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images

Russian troops struck the southern region of Kherson 90 times on Wednesday, killing one civilian and injuring five others, according to the regional governor.

“According to the data from Kherson Regional Military Administration, Russian invaders shelled the Kherson region’s territory 90 times,” Kherson Regional Military Administration head Yaroslav Yanushevych said on Telegram in an update on Wednesday’s military activity.

Artillery, multiple launch rocket systems, mortars and tanks were used in the attacks, he added.

As for Kherson city, the regional capital, Russian forces shelled the city 27 times, he said, attacking residential quarters. “Enemy shells hit the maternity hospital, private and apartment buildings,” Yanushevych said in comments translated by Google.

CNBC was unable to verify the information in the report.

— Holly Ellyatt

Russian forces struck Kherson region 90 times yesterday, official says

General view of the missile impact on a street in the city of Kherson after a missile struck a residential area of the city on the night of Jan. 10, 2023.

Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images

Russian troops struck the southern region of Kherson 90 times on Wednesday, killing one civilian and injuring five others, according to the regional governor.

“According to the data from Kherson Regional Military Administration, Russian invaders shelled the Kherson region’s territory 90 times,” Kherson Regional Military Administration head Yaroslav Yanushevych said on Telegram in an update on Wednesday’s military activity.

Artillery, multiple launch rocket systems, mortars and tanks were used in the attacks, he added.

As for Kherson city, the regional capital, Russian forces shelled the city 27 times, he said, attacking residential quarters. “Enemy shells hit the maternity hospital, private and apartment buildings,” Yanushevych said in comments translated by Google.

CNBC was unable to verify the information in the report.

— Holly Ellyatt

Satellite images show scale of destruction in Soledar and Bakhmut

Maxar satellite imagery of bombed out apartment buildings and homes in Soledar, Ukraine.

Maxar | Maxar | Getty Images

Satellite images collected and released by Maxar Technologies show the destruction wrought upon the eastern Ukrainian towns of Soledar and Bakhmut in Donetsk, where fighting between Ukrainian and Russian forces has been going on for months.

Maxar collected new high-resolution satellite imagery between Jan. 3-10 that helps to convey the magnitude and intensity of the ongoing fighting in the area around both towns, with both Russia and Ukraine claiming to have killed hundreds of each other’s troops on a daily basis.

The satellite imagery released by Maxar reveals thousands of bomb craters in fields and along roads in and around the two towns as well as the destruction of homes, schools and farm buildings.

Maxar satellite imagery showing school and buildings destroyed in Bakhmutske, just to the immediate south of Soledar, in Ukraine.

Maxar | Maxar | Getty Images

The image above shows destroyed buildings destroyed in Bakhmutske, just to the immediate south of Soledar. The one below shows fields marked by craters from relentless artillery exchanges.

Craters in fields just east of Bakhmut, Ukraine.

Maxar | Maxar | Getty Images

A Maxar satellite image showing the destroyed Pokrovske School to the east of Bakhmut:

Maxar satellite imagery showing the destroyed Pokrovske School to the east of Bakhmut in Donetsk, Ukraine.

Maxar | Maxar | Getty Images

Here’s what farm buildings in Yakovlivka, south of Bakhmut, looked like before fighting in eastern Ukraine became intense in August 2022.

Here’s what farm buildings in Yakovlivka, south of Bakhmut, looked like before the start of the siege in eastern Ukraine.

Maxar | Maxar | Getty Images

Here’s what the same farm buildings looked like in images taken in early January 2023:

Farm buildings in Yakovlivka in January 2023. Satellite image (c) 2022 Maxar Technologies.

Maxar | Maxar | Getty Images

Russia redeploying elite airborne forces as originally intended, UK says

A Taifun VDV military vehicle at the International Military-Technical Forum “Army 2022” at Kubinka military training ground in Moscow on Aug. 18, 2022.

Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

The redeployment of Russia’s elite airborne forces, the VDV, to the Donbas in eastern and southern Ukraine signals that military commanders are trying to employ them in line with their intended function as an “elite rapid reaction force,” Britain’s Ministry of Defense said Thursday.

The ministry noted that, over the last two days, heavy fighting has continued both around the town of Soledar in the Donetsk region, and on the approaches to Kremina in the neighboring Luhansk region.

“Since the start of January 2023, Russia has almost certainly allocated elements of the 76th Guards Air Landing Division of the VDV (airborne forces) to reinforce the Kremina front line after assessing the sector was significantly vulnerable,” the ministry noted in its latest intelligence update on Twitter.

“Until November 2022, Russia committed almost the whole of the deployable VDV as long-term, ground-holding troops along the front line in the Kherson area,” it noted.

“Now redeployed to the Donbas and southern Ukraine, commanders are likely attempting to employ VDV more in line with their supposed doctrinal role as a relatively elite rapid reaction force,” it said.

— Holly Ellyatt

‘Fighting continues’ in Soledar, Zelenskyy says, after Russia asserts victory

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy again rejected Russia’s claims to have to have encircled and captured the salt-mining town of Soledar in Donetsk, saying fighting continues for the town in eastern Ukraine.

“Now the terrorist state [Ukraine frequently labels Russia in this way] and its propagandists are trying to pretend that some part of our city of Soledar — a city that was almost completely destroyed by the occupiers — is allegedly some kind of Russia’s achievement,” Zelenskyy said in his nightly address Wednesday.

“But the fighting continues. The Donetsk direction is holding out. And we do everything, without stopping for a single day, to strengthen Ukrainian defense,” he said.

Maxar satellite imagery of bombed out apartment buildings and homes in Soledar, Ukraine.

Maxar | Maxar | Getty Images

There were confusing reports Wednesday as to whether Russian and Wagner Group (a private Russian military company) forces had taken control of the town, after the head of the Wagner Group Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed Tuesday that his force had captured the town.

The Kremlin said Wednesday, however, that reporters should await a statement from the Ministry of Defense on the status of Soledar.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, a Russian businessman and close ally of Vladimir Putin, recently admitted to creating the Wagner Group, a private military company fighting in Ukraine, in 2014.

Mikhail Svetlov | Getty Images

Later, the ministry said its elite airborne units, the VDV, had surrounded Soledar from the north and south but that “assault squads” were fighting in the town center. The update from the Russian Ministry of Defense was seen by some as a bid by the Russian military — which has been criticized by Prigozhin — to assert its authority and undermine the Wagner Group leader.

President Vladimir Putin’s military reshuffle on Wednesday, in which he put loyalist Gen. Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the General Staff of the Russian armed forces, in charge of troops fighting in Ukraine and replacing Gen. Sergei Surovikin — who was supported by Prigozhin — has also been seen as part of the power struggle between the military and Prigozhin and his Wagner Group.

— Holly Ellyatt

Putin’s new commander likely to be greeted with ‘extreme displeasure’ by some pro-war Russians

Valery Gerasimov attends a military meeting in Moscow in December 2022, when he was chief of the General Staff. Gerasimov will take direct control of the ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

Sergey Fadeichev | Afp | Getty Images

Vladimir Putin has put the overall head of the Russian military in direct command of the Ukraine war, but the appointment probably will not sit well with some quarters in Russia, according to an intelligence assessment released late Wednesday.

Valery Gerasimov will take direct responsibility for executing the so-called “special operation” in Ukraine, Russia’s Defense Ministry announced Wednesday.

Gerasimov had served as chief of the General Staff, or head of Russia’s armed forces. Pro-war elements in Russia widely blame Gerasimov for their military’s inept performance in the war.

The move to put him in charge “is likely to be greeted with extreme displeasure by the Russian ultra-nationalist and military blogger community, who have increasingly blamed Gerasimov for the poor execution of the war,” Britain’s Ministry of Defense said in an intelligence update.

Gerasimov replaces General Sergei Surovikin, who took operational command of the war only three months ago.

In contrast to Gerasimov, Surovikin has been praised by ultra-nationalists for his “more realistic” approach, the U.K. ministry said. He had previously led Russian forces in Syria and oversaw the brutally indiscriminate bombardment of Aleppo.

Surovikin will now report to Gerasimov.

As deputy commander in Ukraine, Surovikin’s “authority and influence is almost certainly hugely reduced,” the UK ministry said.

— Ted Kemp

U.S. Defense Secretary Austin and Chairman Milley will host Ukraine Defense Contact Group next week

U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin (L) gives opening remarks as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley (R) listens during a virtual meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group at the Pentagon May 23, 2022 in Arlington, Virginia.

Alex Wong | Getty Images

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman U.S. Army Gen. Mark Milley will head to Germany next week for another meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group.

The Ukraine Defense Contact group, a coalition of nearly 50 countries supporting Ukraine’s military needs, has met several times since it was formed in April.

Among the topics to be discussed at Ramstein Air Base will be Ukraine’s desire for main battle tanks and modern fighter jets for its fight against Russia.

“When it comes to the kinds of capabilities that we provide them, we’ll continue to have that conversation with them, with our international allies and our partners, and we’ll take a variety of considerations into account,” Pentagon press secretary U.S. Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said announcing the trip.

— Amanda Macias

Top Russian military officer put in charge of Ukraine action

The ruins of the salt mine damaged by Russian shelling in Soledar in the Donetsk region of the Donbas.

Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images

Russia’s top military officer was put in charge of troops fighting in Ukraine, a move that appears to reflect the Kremlin’s dissatisfaction with the current leadership and flaws in the military’s performance.

Russia’s Defense Ministry said that Gen. Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the General Staff of the Russian armed forces, was named the new commander of the unified group of forces in Ukraine.

The previous commander, Gen. Sergei Surovikin, was demoted to become Gerasimov’s deputy along with two other generals.

The reshuffle, which was formally ordered by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, clearly came on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approval, signaling that he still has trust in his top military leaders who have faced broad criticism for the troops’ performance in the conflict.

It also suggests a recognition of flaws in carrying out what Putin called “the special military operation” in Ukraine.

While announcing Gerasimov’s appointment, the Defense Ministry said it was aimed at improving coordination between various forces fighting in Ukraine.

“Raising the level of leadership of the special military operation is linked to the expansion of the scale of the tasks being fulfilled as part of it and the need to organize closer interaction between branches of the military and to increase the quality of supplies and the efficiency of directing groups of forces,” the Defense Ministry said in a statement.

— Associated Press

White House declines to say if U.S. will equip Ukraine with main battle tanks

White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre holds the daily press briefing at the White House in Washington, December 5, 2022.

Jonathan Ernst | Reuters

The White House declined to say whether the U.S. would specifically provide Ukraine with main battle tanks.

White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters at a daily briefing that President Joe Biden reaffirmed U.S. support in Kyiv’s fight, adding that Washington “will continue to stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes.”

She declined to elaborate on the makeup of additional U.S. security assistance packages.

Last week, Washington announced its largest package since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began nearly a year ago.

The upcoming military aid package, the 29th such tranche, brings U.S. commitment to Ukraine’s fight to about $24.9 billion since the beginning of the Biden administration.

New to this aid package are 50 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, armored tracked vehicles manufactured by U.S. defense firm BAE Systems. Bradleys are typically equipped with a rotating turret, mounted 25mm gun and TOW anti-tank missiles. The U.S. will provide 500 TOW anti-tank missiles and 250,000 rounds of ammunition for use with the Bradleys.

— Amanda Macias

Russia’s deputy prime minister says it’s had no problems selling oil despite sanctions

G7, the EU and Australia implemented on December 5 a cap on Russian oil prices. Market players have doubts the measure will be effective.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Russian oil producers have had no difficulties in securing export deals despite Western sanctions and price caps, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told a televised online government meeting on Wednesday.

“We’ve been in constant contact with the companies, the contract making for February has been completed, and on the whole, the companies are not saying they have problems as of today,” Novak told the meeting led by President Vladimir Putin.

Russian oil production has so far shown resilience in the face of the sanctions, imposed after Moscow sent troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24, and of the price caps, introduced by Western countries last month.

Putin last month signed a decree that banned the supply of crude oil and oil products from Feb. 1 for five months to nations that abide by the cap.

Novak said the main problem for Russian oil was a high discount to international benchmarks as well as rising freight costs.

— Reuters

‘Soledar is not under the control’ of Russian forces, Ukrainian official says

A Ukrainian soldier in his position as a tankman as the Russia-Ukraine war continues on the Bakhmut front line in Donetsk, Ukraine, on Jan. 8, 2023.

Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

Ukraine is continuing to reject Russian claims that its forces have captured the Donetsk town of Soledar.

Serhiy Cherevatyi, spokesperson for the eastern military command, told Ukrainian television Wednesday that “Soledar is not under the control of the Russian Federation. Heavy fighting is going on there now,” he said, in comments translated by NBC News.

Cherevatyi claimed Russians had “carried out a special information operation” to promote the claim that Russian forces had already captured Soledar but said “this is not true.”

“The situation there is difficult, but it is under the control of the state leadership of our armed forces. We are working on making management decisions that will allow us to stabilize the situation in the city and cause maximum damage to the enemy with minimal losses from our side,” he added. 

This morning, Ukraine’s operational update said Soledar was among the settlements in Donetsk that were being shelled, while Reuters reported that from the outskirts of the town, plumes of smoke could be seen rising, describing the incoming artillery fires as “relentless.”

CNBC was unable to immediately verify Cherevatyi’s claim. On Tuesday, the head of the Russian private military company, the Wagner Group, which has been fighting in the area around Soledar and Bakhmut for months, claimed that his fighters had taken “control of the entire territory of Soledar” while urban warfare was continuing.

Capturing Soledar would be a coup for Russia as it seeks to advance further and capture nearby Bakhmut. Ultimately, Russia wants to take full control of Donetsk and the wider Donbas region.

— Holly Ellyatt

Read CNBC’s previous live coverage here:



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‘Putin’s Chef’ Yevgeny Prigozhin Humiliated After Bragging of Soledar Wagner Victory

The Kremlin finally seems to be trying to take Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin down a notch after the businessman has spent months using his band of mercenaries and ex-convicts to steal the spotlight in Russia’s war against Ukraine.

A simmering feud between Prigozhin’s outfit and the regular Russian army spilled out into the open Wednesday, as Russia’s Defense Ministry publicly rebuffed claims made by “Putin’s chef” about a Wagner win in Ukraine’s Donetsk region.

In an announcement late Tuesday, Prigozhin gleefully claimed his men had taken control of a salt mine town that Russian forces are hoping to use as a stepping stone to gain control of the highly coveted city of Bakhmut, a Ukrainian stronghold for months.

“Wagner units have taken control of all the territory of Soledar,” Prigozhin said through his press service. “I want to emphasize that no units other than the Wagner fighters took part in the assault on Soledar,” he said.

While Ukrainian authorities denied Prigozhin’s claim and said battles were still underway in the town—and that the selfie the Wagner boss posted supposedly from Soledar was not even in Soledar—Russia’s two dueling armies devolved into their own war within a war.

Russia’s Defense Ministry shot down Prigozhin’s boast that his own men had single-handedly brought Putin a win, instead confirming Ukraine’s announcement that fighting was still underway in the town.

Moreover, defense officials suggested Russian airborne units and assault teams are leading the charge. The Defense Ministry made no mention of Wagner whatsoever.

The rebuff comes as praise for Prigozhin’s outfit hit a fever pitch among pro-Kremlin figures, and the notorious mercenary group threatened to outshine Putin’s regular soldiers on the battlefield.

“Why is Wagner so successful, more successful than even the Russian army?” pro-Kremlin political analyst Sergei Markov wrote on Telegram early Wednesday.

He went on to praise Prigozhin personally, calling him “very creative,” a “workaholic,” and someone who “comes up with bright, novel solutions.”

“Prigozhin’s criminal past is a plus now, because world politics is criminalized,” he said, calling Prigozhin and Wagner “a national treasure.”

Speculation about Prigozhin possibly vying for an official post in Russia’s government has mounted in recent months as his PR campaign for Wagner has gone into overdrive, with many wondering if he’s made it his personal mission to “win the damn war” for Putin so he could demand something in return.

Despite Prigozhin butting heads with top defense officials and government officials, the Kremlin has largely allowed him to do as he pleases—but they seem to have fired their first warning shot this week in a sign of things to come.

Putin’s appointment on Tuesday of a controversial colonel-general as the new ground forces chief was done “as a snub to Prigozhin,” a source close to Russia’s General Staff told the outlet iStories.

Both Prigozhin and his fellow hardliner Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov had publicly blamed Colonel-General Alexander Lapin for setbacks on the battlefield.

Lapin’s return, the source said, “is an answer [to Prigozhin] along the lines of ‘We don’t leave our own behind either.’”

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Russian artillery fire down by nearly 75%, US officials say, in latest sign of struggles for Moscow


Washington
CNN
 — 

As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine enters its 11th month, US and Ukrainian officials tell CNN that Russia’s artillery fire is down dramatically from its wartime high, in some places by as much as 75%.

US and Ukrainian officials don’t yet have a clear or singular explanation. Russia may be rationing artillery rounds due to low supplies, or it could be part of a broader reassessment of tactics in the face of successful Ukrainian offenses.

Either way, the striking decline in artillery fire is further evidence of Russia’s increasingly weak position on the battlefield nearly a year into its invasion, US and Ukrainian officials told CNN. It also comes as Ukraine is enjoying increased military support from its western allies, with the US and Germany announcing last week that they will be providing Ukrainian forces for the first time with armored fighting vehicles, as well as another Patriot Defense missile battery that will help protect its skies.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, is apparently clambering to shore up domestic political support, US intelligence officials believe, for a war he initially would only describe as a limited “special military operation.”

US officials believe the 36-hour ceasefire Putin ordered in Ukraine last week to allow for the observance of Orthodox Christmas was an attempt to pander to Russia’s extensive Christian population, two people familiar with the intelligence told CNN, as well as an opportunity for Putin to blame Ukrainians for breaking it and paint them as heretical heathens.

Much of the domestic opposition Putin and his generals have faced over the handling of the war has come from one of the Russian leader’s closest allies: Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the mercenary organization Wagner Group. Prigozhin has complained that the Russian Ministry of Defense has botched the war effort, and that Wagner Group should be given more equipment, authority and autonomy to carry out operations in Ukraine.

But Wagner Group has lost thousands of fighters in Ukraine the last two months alone, a senior US official said.

Russia suffered another setback earlier this month when Ukrainian forces hit a weapons depot in Makiivka in eastern Ukraine, destroying more Russian supplies and killing scores of Russian troops housed nearby. The strike also raised questions among prominent Russian military bloggers about the basic competence of the Russian military brass, which had apparently decided to house hundreds of Russian troops next to an obvious Ukrainian target.

“Maybe this one strike is a drop in the bucket, but the bucket is getting smaller,” a US defense official said, referring to the Russians’ dwindling stockpiles.

To date, questions about Russia’s stockpile of weapons have mostly focused on their precision-guided munitions, such as cruise missiles and ballistic missiles. But US officials said their dramatically reduced rate of artillery fire may indicate that the prolonged and brutal battle has had a significant effect on Russia’s supply of conventional weapons as well.

Last month, a senior US military official said that Russia has had to resort to 40-year-old artillery shells as their supply of new ammo dwindled. To the US, the use of degraded ammunition, as well as the Kremlin’s outreach to countries like North Korea and Iran, was a sign of Russia’s diminished stocks of weaponry.

The rationing of ammunition and lower rate of fire appears to be a departure from Russian military doctrine, which traditionally calls for the heavy bombardment of a target area with massive artillery fire and rocket fire. That strategy played out in cities like Mariupol and Melitopol as Russian forces used the punishing strikes to drive slow, brutal advances in Ukraine.

Officials said the strategy shift could be the doing of the recently installed Russian theater commander, General Sergey Surovikin, who the US believes is more competent than his predecessors.

Ukraine has had little choice but to ration its ammunition since the beginning of the war. Ukrainian troops rapidly burned through their own supply of Soviet-era 152 mm ammunition when the conflict erupted, and while the US and its allies have provided hundreds of thousands of rounds of Western 155 mm ammunition, even this supply has had its limits.

As a result, Ukraine has averaged firing around 4,000-7,000 artillery rounds per day – far fewer than Russia.

The Russians’ declining rate of fire is not linear, one US defense official noted, and there are days when Russians still fire far more artillery rounds – particularly around the eastern Ukrainian cities of Bakhmut and Kreminna, as well as some near Kherson in the south.

US and Ukrainian officials have offered widely different estimates of Russian fire, with US officials saying the rate has dropped from 20,000 rounds per day to around 5,000 per day on average. Ukraine estimates that the rate has dropped from 60,000 to 20,000 per day.

But both estimates point to a similar downward trend.

While Russia still has more artillery ammunition available than Ukraine does, early US assessments vastly overestimated the amount that Russia had its disposal, a US military official said, and underestimated how well the Ukrainians would do at hitting Russian logistics sites.

It appears now that Russia is focused more on bolstering its defense fortifications, particularly in central Zaporizhzhia, the UK Ministry of Defense reported in its regular intelligence update on Sunday. The movements suggest that Moscow is concerned about a potential Ukrainian offensive either there or in Luhansk, the ministry said.

“A major Ukrainian breakthrough in Zaporizhzhia would seriously challenge the viability of Russia’s ‘land-bridge’ linking Russia’s Rostov region and Crimea,” the ministry said, while Ukrainian success in Luhansk would “undermine Russia’s professed war aim of ‘liberating’ the Donbas.”

Ukraine’s counter-offensives last fall targeting Kherson in the south and Kharkiv in the north resulted in humiliating defeats for Russia – and were aided enormously by sophisticated western weaponry like HIMARS rocket launchers, Howitzer artillery systems and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles that the US had previously been reluctant to provide.

“The fact of the matter is we have been self-deterring ourselves for over a year now,” said retired Army Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, former commander of US Army Europe and NATO Allied Land Command and currently a senior advisor for Human Rights First.

“There’s been so much anxiety about the possibility of Russia’s escalation – I mean ten months ago, there was concern about giving Stingers…obviously that’s ridiculous, and it looks ridiculous now.”

Tensions between Kremlin defense officials and Wagner Group leaders have also been rising amid public complaints by the mercenaries that they are running low on equipment and reports that their leader, Prigozhin, wants to take control of the lucrative salt mines near Bakhmut.

In a video that ran on Russian state media, Wagner Group fighters complain that they are running low on combat vehicles, artillery shells and ammunition, which is limiting their ability to conquer Bakhmut – shortages Prigozhin then blames on “internal bureaucracy and corruption.”

“This year we will win! But first we will conquer our internal bureaucracy and corruption,” he says in the clip. “Once we conquer our internal bureaucracy and corruption, then we will conquer the Ukrainians and NATO, and then the whole world. The problem now is that the bureaucrats and those engaging in corruption won’t listen to us now because for New Year’s they are all drinking champagne.”

Prigozhin’s ambitions are not limited to greater political power, however, the US believes. There are also indications that he wants to take control over the lucrative salt and gypsum from mines near Bakhmut, a senior administration official tells CNN.

“This is consistent with Wagner’s modus operandi in Africa, where the group’s military activities often function hand in hand with control of mining assets,” the official said, adding that the US believes these monetary incentives are driving Prigozhin and Russia’s “obsession” with taking Bakhmut.

The official also said that Wagner Group has suffered heavy casualties in its operations near Bakhmut since late November.

“Out of its force of nearly 50,000 mercenaries (including 40,000 convicts), the company has sustained over 4,100 killed and 10,000 wounded, including over 1,000 killed between late November and early December near Bakhmut,” the official said, adding that about 90% of those killed were convicts.

The official said that Russia “cannot sustain these kinds of losses.”

“If Russia does eventually seize Bakhmut, Russia will surely characterize this, misleadingly, as a ‘major victory,” the official added. “But we know that is not the case. If the cost for each 36 square miles of Ukraine [the approximate size of Bakhmut] is thousands of Russians over seven months, this is the definition of Pyrrhic victory.”

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Putin avoids Russia blame game — for now — after Ukraine attack



CNN
 — 

It was New Year’s Eve, one of the most cherished holidays in Russia. The recruits in President Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine – hundreds of them mobilized just months ago – were billeted in makeshift barracks, a vocational school in the occupied city of Makiivka, in the Donetsk region. Next door was a large ammunition depot.

The soldiers missed their wives, their families, so they turned on their cellphones and called home. Suddenly, HIMARS rockets, satellite-guided precision weapons that the United States has supplied to Ukraine, hit the school, almost completely destroying it, and igniting the cache of ammunition.

That, at least officially, is how the Russian military is explaining the deadliest known attack on Russian forces in Ukraine since the war began in February 2022. The Defense Ministry blamed the troops themselves, claiming the “main cause” of the attack was the use of cellphones “contrary to the ban.” Russian troops are banned from using personal cell phones in the field, since their signals have been geolocated to hone in on and kill other Russian forces.

But that explanation, and details of the attack that have surfaced, have ignited an extraordinarily public national blame game among Russians.

It started with the death toll. The Russian Defense Ministry initially said 63 soldiers were killed, then increased that number to 89. Ukraine claimed it was approximately 400. But even Russian pro-war bloggers, an increasingly influential element in how Russian civilians get their information about what really is happening in Ukraine, dismissed the official count, estimating that hundreds of troops had died. The true number is not yet known.

One of those bloggers, Semyon Pegov, who uses the online handle “War Gonzo” and was recently awarded a medal by Vladimir Putin, also rejected the military’s claim about cell phones, calling it a “blatant attempt to smear blame.”

“Grey Zone,” another blogger, called the cell phone explanation a “99% lie,” an attempt to evade responsibility. He said it was more likely an intelligence failure.

Russian lawmakers chimed in, demanding an investigation into just who had ordered so many troops to be temporarily quartered in one, unprotected building. Sergey Mironov, a prominent politician and party leader, said there should be “personal criminal liability” for any officers or other military personnel who made that decision. And, implying the military had a lax approach to the war, he warned, “It’s time to realize it won’t be the same as it used to be.”

“This is a battle for the future of Russia,” Mironov said. “We must win it!”

Mironov’s comments touched a nerve. Hardliners like him think Putin’s September “partial mobilization” of reservists, calling up 300,000 men, failed to go far enough. They want a full mobilization that would put the entire country on a war footing. And they want revenge on Ukraine.

No one so far, however – at least publicly – is blaming Vladimir Putin for the deaths. Margarita Simonyan, editor-in-chief of state-run international network RT and a regular on domestic Russian TV talk shows, said she hoped “the responsible officials will be held accountable” and their names released. But she also hinted the attack could fuel public discontent: “It is high time to understand that impunity does not lead to social harmony. Impunity leads to more crimes and, as a consequence, public dissent.”

Many of the soldiers who perished at Makiivka came from Samara, a city on the Volga River in southwestern Russia, and the families of those killed are mourning their loved ones, bringing red carnations to a rare public memorial service, as priests led people in prayer and a choir sang the liturgy for the young men who had recently been sent to the front.

The Defence Ministry’s admission that significant number of mobilized troops had died in the attack, as well as the open debate among military bloggers, are signs the Kremlin is taking the attack in Makiivka very seriously. After all, the Putin government has the means to shut down reporting on events it does not want the public to know.

Even in this “open” discussion, several commentators have raised the possibility that “informants” may have tipped off the enemy, a go-to conspiracy theory that Russia’s state-run propaganda outlets often promote. Then there is the usual complaint after almost any tragedy in Russia, blaming it on “khalatnost:” negligence.

But the finger of blame, so far, is pointed only at military leaders, no higher. President Putin has made no public comment about the Makiivka attack, a strong indication that he intends to remain as far away as possible from an obvious debacle.

Read original article here

Latest news on Russia and the war in Ukraine

Putin’s ceasefire demand is likely an information operation to damage Ukraine’s reputation: Institute for the Study of War

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s demand for a ceasefire for Orthodox Christmas — which Ukraine has rejected — is likely a ploy designed to make Ukraine look aggressive and intransigent, according to analysts at the think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Orthodox Christmas takes place on January 7.

“Putin’s announcement that Russian forces will conduct a 36-hour ceasefire in observance of Russian Orthodox Christmas is likely an information operation intended to damage Ukraine’s reputation,” the group wrote in a Twitter post.

The think tank wrote in subsequent tweets that “Ukrainian and Western officials, including US President Joe Biden, immediately highlighted the hypocrisy of the ceasefire announcement and emphasized that Russian forces continued striking Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure on December 25—when many Orthodox Ukrainians celebrate Christmas—and New Year’s.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that there would be a ceasefire once Russian troops left his country.

“Putin could have been seeking to secure a 36-hour pause for Russian troops to afford them the ability to rest, recoup, and reorient to relaunch offensive operations in critical sectors of the front,” ISW wrote.

“Putin cannot reasonably expect Ukraine to meet the terms of this suddenly declared ceasefire and may have called for the ceasefire to frame Ukraine as unaccommodating and unwilling to take the necessary steps toward negotiations,” it said, adding that Russia has employed this kind of information tactic before.

— Natasha Turak

Ukraine’s deputy prime minister warns residents in occupied areas not to attend church services

Construction workers climb onto the roof of a destroyed church in the village of Bohorodychne, Donetsk region on January 4, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Dimitar Dilkoff | AFP | Getty Images

Ukraine’s deputy prime minister warned residents in Russian-occupied areas not to attend church services for Orthodox Christmas, which is celebrated on January 7, warning it could be dangerous.

“There is information that the Russians are preparing terrorist attacks in churches in the temporarily occupied territories for Orthodox Christmas,” Iryna Vereshchuk wrote on her Telegram channel, though she did not provide evidence for the claim.

“I urge citizens to be careful and, if possible, to refrain from visiting places with a large crowd of people,” she said. “Take care of yourself and your loved ones.”

— Natasha Turak

Estonia is committing nearly 1 million euros to take down Soviet-era monuments

The Baltic nation of Estonia is allocating more than 900,000 euros to take down Soviet-era monuments set up all over the country while it was a part of the Soviet Union, the Poland-based Belarusian news agency Nexta reported.

Estonia has been an ardent supporter of Ukraine against Russia’s invasion. It is a member of NATO and the EU.

— Natasha Turak

Artillery shelling reported in eastern Ukraine despite cease-fire

Artillery shelling is continuing in parts of eastern Ukraine despite a purported unilateral Russian ceasefire declared by Vladimir Putin, multiple news outlets are reporting.

“One witness in the Russian-occupied regional capital Donetsk, close to the front, described outgoing artillery fired from pro-Russian positions on the city’s outskirts after the truce was meant to take effect,” news agency Reuters wrote.

Russia’s defense ministry also says that shelling from Ukraine is continuing. Ukraine has refused to take part in the ceasefire, calling it hypocritical and a cover to allow more reinforcements for Russian troops while preventing Ukrainian forces to advance.

— Natasha Turak

Russia’s 36-hour cease-fire begins

Ukrainian soldiers of a special forces unit prepare to fire mortar shells at Russian forces amid artillery fights on Dec. 20, 2022, in Bakhmut, Ukraine.

Pierre Crom | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Russia’s cease-fire, ordered by Putin for Russian Orthodox Christmas on Jan. 7, began officially at noon Moscow time.

“At noon today, the ceasefire regime came into force on the entire contact line. It will continue until the end of 7 January,” Russia’s state Channel One news announced.

The move is seen by many as a chance to let Russian soldiers rest and recuperate and to prevent Ukrainian troops from making territorial gains. Ukraine has rejected the cease-fire, likening it to a trap aimed at giving Russian forces an advantage.

— Natasha Turak

Zelenskyy rejects Putin’s temporary cease-fire proposal, says war will end ‘when your soldiers leave’

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy slammed a proposal from Russian President Vladimir Putin for a temporary cease-fire during Orthodox Christmas on Jan. 7.

Ukrinform | Future Publishing | Getty Images

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy slammed a proposal from Russian President Vladimir Putin for a temporary cease-fire during Orthodox Christmas on Jan. 7, calling it a cover to stop Ukrainian forces’ advances and bring in more reinforcements for Russian troops.

“They now want to use Christmas as a cover, albeit briefly, to stop the advances of our boys in Donbas and bring equipment, ammunition and mobilized troops closer to our positions,” Zelenskyy said in his nightly video address. “What will that give them? Only yet another increase in their total losses.”

Zelenskyy spoke in Russian rather than Ukrainian, and said that a real cease-fire meant “ending your country’s aggression … And the war will end either when your soldiers leave or we throw them out.”

Many have pointed out that Russia did not offer a cease-fire on on Dec. 25, which is celebrated by many Orthodox Ukrainians, or for the new year. New Year’s Eve saw Russia attacking cities in Ukraine with drone strikes, taking out power infrastructure and destroying residential buildings.

— Natasha Turak

Bradley armored vehicles will provide ‘firepower and armor that will bring advantages on the battlefield,’ Pentagon says

Ukrainian soldiers with the 43rd Heavy Artillery Brigade sit atop 2S7 Pion self propelled cannon on the battlefield, as Russia’s attack on Ukraine continues, during intense shelling on the front line in Bakhmut, Ukraine, December 26, 2022.

Clodagh Kilcoyne | Reuters

The Pentagon said that the Bradley Fighting Vehicles will provide Ukraine with an advantage on the battlefield but declined to elaborate on how the armored vehicles would be equipped and how long training would take.

It was also unclear how many Bradleys the U.S. would send to Ukraine and how long it would take for the tracked armored vehicles to make their debut on the battlefield against Russia.

The White House is slated to announce the next security assistance package on Friday.

Pentagon Press Secretary U.S. Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said that the Bradleys will provide “a level of firepower and armor that will bring advantages on the battlefield as Ukraine continues to defend their homeland.”

— Amanda Macias

‘We know better than to take anything we see or hear from Russia at face value,’ State Department says of Russia’s proposed truce

U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price holds a press briefing on Afghanistan at the State Department in Washington, August 16, 2021.

Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

State Department spokesman Ned Price said it was up to Ukraine if they want to participate in Russia’s proposed truce.

Price said that the U.S. has “little faith in the intentions behind this announcement,” adding that Russia has previously broken such promises.

“We know better than to take anything we see or hear from Russia at face value. Unfortunately, they have given us no reason to take anything that they offer at face value,” Price added.

Earlier on Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed a temporary ceasefire.

The cease-fire would allow Orthodox Christians in Russia and Ukraine to celebrate Christmas services.

— Amanda Macias

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